amazonas center manaus, brazil toward more prosperous cities: putting people first wendell cox ●...
TRANSCRIPT
- Slide 1
- Amazonas Center Manaus, Brazil Toward More Prosperous Cities: Putting People First Wendell Cox 28 October 2013
- Slide 2
- Shanghai Large labor markets are the only raison dtre of large cities. Alain Bertaud, World Bank WHY CITIES EXIST
- Slide 3
- Principal Priority of Government Improving Economic Well-Being (Better standard of living, less poverty) Misplaced priorities
- Slide 4
- Athens LABELS: Smart Growth Growth Management Compact Cities Urban Containment: Economic Threat IMPERATIVE TO STOP THE SPREAD
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- Worlds Largest Cities (Urban Areas) 650 BC TO PRESENT Huge Swings : 1000 to1500 High 1.1M Low 0.25M Example BELOW Hangzhou, China (Largest Pre-19 th Century Urban Area (1300)
- Slide 6
- Manila Slum CITIES, ECONOMICS & POVERTY
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- Walking Mass Transit Highest National GDPs: 1500-2000 650 BC TO PRESENT Auto PRINCIPAL MODE Figure 7 From Maddison (OECD)
- Slide 8
- Manila Prosperity is not Guaranteed ECONOMIC POLICIES MATTER
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- 9 Dhaka Dhaka Shantytown Up to 2M/Square Mile Economics: A History of Poverty CANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTED
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- Los Angeles HOW CITIES GROW
- Slide 11
- Addis Ababa Urban Area: Evolution 1972-2010 1972 2010
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- JAKARTA (CORE) SUBURBS & EXURBS Jakarta: Growth by Sector 1971-2010
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- Population by District: 1901-2011 MUMBAI METROPOLITAN REGION OUTER MUMBAI INNER MUMBAI THANE RAIGAHR
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- Growing Megacities Becoming Less Dense
- Slide 15
- No Move from Suburbs to Core US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2010 Data from Census Bureau
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- Mumbai CITIES & URBAN CONTAINMENT
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- OUTSIDE UGB $16,000 Per Acre INSIDE UGB $180,000 Per Acre Urban Growth Boundaries DESTROYING THE COMPETITIVE LAND SUPPLY Portland Similar Results In London & and Auckland
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- Suburban Toronto (Newmarket) Statistics Canada: High Density 6+ Miles From Downtown Relies on Cars Density & Transit TRAVEL PATTERNS NO DIFFERENT THAN LOW DENSITY
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- Preserving Agricultural Land AGRICULTURAL LAND TAKEN OUT OF PRODUCTION 1950-2000 c Net new open space equal to Agricultural productivity has doubled
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- CITIES & HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Kansas City Housing: Largest Household Expenditure
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- Urban Containment Raises House Prices URBAN CONTAINMENT LAND RATIONING Nick Boles UK Planning Minister Kate Barker Bank of England Specious Planning Claim: No Consensus (Sun rises in the west economics)
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- Land Rationing is the Issue DESTROYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Donald Brash, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand 1988-2002 Introduction to 4 th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey... the affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing, the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land.
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- Abandoning Urban Containment NEW ZEALAND, FLORIDA, SYDNEY Bill English, Deputy Prime Minister New Zealand Introduction to 9 th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey Land has been made artificially scarce by regulation that locks up land for development. This regulation has made land supply unresponsive to demand.
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- Measuring Housing Affordability: Median Multiple Median House Price/Median Household Income (Used by UN, OECD and others)
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- Historic Median Multiple: 3.0 or Less Median House Price/ Median Household Income
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- Housing Affordability 1950-2012 MAJOR US METROPOLITAN AREAS: MEDIAN MULTIPLE Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income Figure 26 Greater Price Volatility
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- Portland: Cost of Housing HIGH POVERTY AREAS (1.5+ POVERTY RATE): 1999-2009 Zip Code data from American Community Survey 2007-11 & 2000 Census Figure 27
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- Urban containment: incompatible with housing affordability (Cheshire, London School of Economics ) _______________________________________________________________ Indeed, it is difficult to imagine another plausible cause of the 20082009 financial crisis.. In the absence of excessive controls, housing construction would quickly deflate a speculative housing price bubble. (Jansen & Mills, Northwestern University ) Consequences of Urban Containment ECONOMIC RESEARCH
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- London Reduced employment in Amsterdam/Rotterdam -Vermuelen & Ommeren Netherlands Bureau of Econ. Rsch. Strong Land Regulation: Less Growth INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH Higher unemployment in the UK - Mayo & Angel World Bank 20% less job growth than expected in metropolitan areas with strongest land use regulation -Raven Saks US Federal Reserve Board Higher commercial Development costs -Cheshire & Hilbur London School of Economics
- Slide 30
- CITIES & TRANSPORTATION Buenos Aires 16-Lane Freeway
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- Don Valley Parkway & GO Transit Train Why are All These People on the Parkway? TRANSIT IS ABOUT DOWNTOWN
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- Transit: 45 Minute Job Access METROPOLITAN AREAS OVER 2,000,000: 2008 Average Transit Job Access: 5.6% (NYC: 9.8%)
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- Work Trip Market Share by Income US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2006-2010 (ACS)
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- Democratization of Prosperity ASSOCIATION BETWEEN MOBILITY & AFFLUENCE Chicago Reduced Minority Unemployment With Cars U. of California PRUDHOMME Mobility Improves Productivity U. Of Paris HARTGEN-FIELDS Mobility Improves Productivity Time is Money
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- One Way Work Trip Travel Time HIGH INCOME METROPOLITAN AREAS > 1,000,000
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- Southern Greenland CITIES & SUSTAINABILITY
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- Perth, Australia Urban Containment: Ineffective & Expensive COSTS PER TON MANY TIMES THE IPCC STANDARD
- Slide 38
- Driving Up GHGs Down: 2010-2040 US LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES (NEW FUEL STANDARDS) Source: US Department Of Energy GHG Emissions Driving (VMT)
- Slide 39
- From: EPA, DOE, TRB Urban Containment: Ineffective GROSS EMISSIONS: REDUCTION FROM 2030 BASE
- Slide 40
- Dubaii TOWARD MORE PROSPEROUS CITIES
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- Standard of Living at Stake IN AN ALREADY CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT Demographics Pensions Public Debt
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- The issue is not. Urban sprawl Urban design Transit versus cars The issue is PEOPLE Standard of living Reducing poverty Putting People First THE NEED FOR RATIONAL PRIORITIES Chicago