ADVANCED ANALYTICAL TOOLS FOR
ROADMAP DEVELOPMENT
Presented by G. Fesenko, INPRO
Prepared by Andrianov A. INPRO/IAEA consultant
Dialogue Forum 11 on Collaborative Project "Roadmaps for a Transition to Globally Sustainable Nuclear Energy Systems"
(ROADMAPS), 20-23 October 2015, IAEA, Vienna, Austria
CONTENT
• Overview of references and advanced tools for nuclear related roadmaps
• Roadmapping towards sustainable NES
• Conclusions
Overview of references and advanced tools for
nuclear related roadmaps
INTRODUCTION
• ‘Roadmap’ is a generic term meaning a detailed plan for achieving some goal and to guide
progress toward this goal. It is a synonym for ‘guide to future goals’, ‘guideline’, ‘plan’,
‘direction’, ‘instruction’, ‘map’, ‘protocol’, ‘standard’, ‘procedure’.
• Roadmapping is a targets-oriented technology or non-technology (policy-oriented)
planning process to help identify, select, and develop alternatives to satisfy a set of
requirements and provides information to make better decisions (technology or policy
alternatives, R&D allocations, etc) by identifying critical elements and gaps.
• A roadmap is the structured output of the roadmapping process including identified critical
system elements (actions, technologies) and milestones (timeframes, time lags,
interconnections) to meet performance targets and requirements.
• Several analytical tools (methods, software, etc) are available to support technology or
non-technology (policy-oriented) roadmapping providing means to gather, explore,
organize, analyze and communicate the information necessary for decision-making
process related to roadmap construction.
REFERENCES ON NUCLEAR RELATED ROADMAPS General
IEA Technology roadmaps , https://www.iea.org/roadmaps/
UNIDO technology foresight, http://www.unido.org/foresight.html
Institute for Manufacturing, Department of Engineering Cambridge, UK, http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/roadmapping/research/
Nuclear related roadmapping
Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, 2010 edition, NEA /IEA,
https://www.iea.org/media/freepublications/technologyroadmaps/nuclear_roadmap2010.pdf
Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy, 2015 edition, NEA /IEA,
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/TechnologyRoadmapNuclearEnergy.pdf
Nuclear energy research and development roadmap, 2010, DOE , http://energy.gov/ne/downloads/nuclear-energy-research-and-
development-roadmap
A Technology Roadmap for Generation IV Nuclear Energy Systems, https://www.gen-4.org/gif/upload/docs/application/pdf/2014-03/gif-
tru2014.pdf
Nuclear Energy Research and Development Roadmap: Future Pathways, 2013,
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/168043/bis-13-632-nuclear-energy-research-and-
development-roadmap-future-pathway.pdf
The path to sustainable nuclear energy – basic and applied research opportunities for advanced fuel cycles, DOE, 2005,
http://science.energy.gov/~/media/bes/pdf/reports/files/psne_rpt.pdf Others A technology roadmap for generation IV nuclear energy systems, US DoE Nuclear Energy Research Advisory Committee and the Generation IV International Forum, 2002.
Generation IV roadmap – crosscutting fuel cycle R&D scope report, nuclear energy systems, 2002.
A roadmap to deploy new nuclear power plants in the United States by 2010, Volume 1 – Summary Report; Volume II – Main Report , 2001.
The nuclear roadmap portal – a service to the nuclear energy community.
Strategic plan for light water reactor research and development, US DoE / Nuclear Power Industry, 2004.
Indian programme related to innovative nuclear reactor technology, Sinha & Kakodkar, 2002.
A roadmap for developing ATW technology: target-blanket technology, accelerator transmutation of waste, 1999.
A roadmap for developing ATW technology: system scenarios & integration, accelerator transmutation of waste, van Tuyle et al., 2001.
ATW accelerator technology in US roadmap”, accelerator transmutation of waste, 2001.
A roadmap for developing accelerator transmutation of waste (ATW) technology, DoE report to Congress, 1999.
Preparation of a technology development roadmap for the accelerator transmutation of waste (ATW) system, 1999.
A European roadmap for developing accelerator driven systems (ADS) for nuclear waste incineration, 2001.
An integrated roadmap for the programmatic resolution of gas generation issues in packages containing radioactive waste/materials, 2001;
Roadmapping the resolution of gas generation issues in packages containing radioactive waste/materials – a status report, 2002.
Executive summary, sodium bearing waste.
Engineering & technology roadmap – reducing technical risk and uncertainty in the EM program, Nuclear waste management, US Department of Energy, Office of Environmental Management, 2008.
Nuclear fission energy roadmap, UK Energy Research Centre, 2008.
Nuclear fission energy roadmap, Howarth, Dalton Nuclear Institute, 2008.
Accelerator-driven subcritical reactor outlook, thorium energy amplifier, ThorEA, 2010.
etc
ANALYTICAL TOOLS AND SOFTWARE FOR TECHNOLOGY
ROADMAPPING
Visualization tools:
trees, taxonomy, Gantt chart, mind map, concept map, etc
Software supports the roadmapping
(data input, analysis, reporting):
MS Project or other Gantt software (Aha, ProductPlan, etc)
Integrated tools (Vision Strategist, VersionOne, etc)
Analytical tools:
decision tree, MCDA, cost-benefit analysis, portfolio optimization, etc.
General Visualization tools
http://www.visual-literacy.org/periodic_table/periodic_table.html#
Visualizations tools to support roadmapping
(data input, analysis, reporting):
The general roadmap is a multi-layered and
time-based chart. Roadmaps utilize different
visualization techniques (more commonly used
- trees, flow chart, Gantt chart, mind map,
influence diagram, concept map, etc).
What options is the most suitable within
sustainable NES roadmapping is an open
question that should be considered.
Examples of the most popular options for
roadmap visualizations:
recommendation reflected in the UNIDO training program on
technological foresight.
Analytical tools to support roadmapping (data input,
analysis, reporting) Analytical tools:
decision tree, MCDM: cost-benefit analysis,
portfolio optimization, etc.
A decision tree and influence diagram is used as a visual and analytical
decision support tool, where the expected values of competing alternatives are
calculated. The decision trees analyze scenarios that have chosen outcomes
and provide a graph that depicts a system.
Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) techniques are a tool aimed at
supporting decision makers who are faced with making numerous and
conflicting assessments. MCDM techniques intend to highlight conflicts and
find compromises in the decision making process. Multi-criteria decision
analysis methods is considered to be a transparent and flexible approach used
to support a wide range of decisions including those arising within the roadmap
elaboration ;.
• cost-benefit-risk assessment (cost-risk–benefit analysis to quantify risks and
benefits)
• portfolio optimization (choice of the proportions of various assets to be held
in a portfolio)
Roadmapping towards sustainable NES
INPRO CP ROADMAP BACKGROUND
G A I N S
(analytical framework for assessing dynamic of NES
for sustainability (key indicators concept)
K I N D
(structured approach for comparative evaluation of NES
and related technological options)
S Y N E R G I E S
(national, regional and global and joint case studies on various synergies among nuclear technologies and
forms of collaboration among nuclear technology suppliers
and users )
R O A D M A P
(structured
approach for
documenting
actions, work
scope, timeframes
for stakeholders)
ROADMAPS Collaborative Project are based
on the outputs of GAINS, SYNERGIES and
several other INPRO projects and, therefore,
serve as an umbrella to facilitate Member
States’ effective use of the outputs of INPRO
projects.
ROADMAPS integrates the outputs into
structured approach for documenting actions,
work scope, timeframes for stakeholders
ROADMAPS will identify the gaps in
international collaboration in developing
globally sustainable NESs; so that solutions to
close such gaps can be developed in future
projects
Features of roadmapping towards sustainable NES
Features of roadmapping towards
sustainable NES
developing a structured approach for
achieving globally sustainable nuclear energy
using developed options
indicating, where savings in time, effort and
resources could be achieved by countries
through international collaboration
long-term perspective and dynamic nature
Word clouds for ‘sustainable NES’ &‘roadmap’
with related tags &terms
Reactor types Reactor types Reactor types Reactor types Reactor types Fuel cycle
technologies
Reactor types Reactor types NES function Reactor types Reactor types Collaboration
strategies
Technological
component i
Technological
component n
Collaboration
strategy i
Collaboration
strategy n
Requirements,
Targets,
Tools
Roadmapping (identifications gaps,
actions, work scope,
timelines)
Time frame1 ………….. Timeframe n …
structured documenting actions,
scope of work, and timeframes
TECHNOLOGICAL AND COLLABORATION STRATEGY OPTIONS
Roadmapping towards sustainable NES
Audience,
Scope
OPTIONS FOR NUCLEAR ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY
Enhancing Sustainability via Advanced Reactors and Fuel Cycles
Safe, secure, proliferation resistant, economical and publically acceptable
nuclear power with security of supply identified within the current century
Safe disposal of all nuclear wastes via a complete nuclear fuel cycle with
retrievable spent nuclear fuel disposal
Initiate recycling of used nuclear fuel to reduce wastes
Guarantee nuclear fuel resources indefinitely via complete recycle of used
fuel while also significantly reducing the final waste amount to be disposed
Further reduce the radiotoxicity, residual heat and the longevity of all
wastes via minor actinide transmutation
Collaborative enhancements
NES collaboration strategy reliance
on
NES Function
National indigenous technology development Obtain/produce Uranium
Convert/enrich uranium
International cooperation: single bi-lateral
agreement
Fabricate/ obtain fuel
NPP design
International cooperation: multi-lateral
agreement
NPP operation
Store SNF
International cooperation: multiple bi-lateral
agreements/ multiple suppliers providing for a
competitive choice of the supplier/customer
Reprocess SNF
Dispose HLW/SNF
Enhancing Sustainability via
Advanced Reactors and Fuel Cycles
Collaborative enhancements
NES DEPLOYMENT STRATEGY MONITORING
tracking/monitoring NES deployment strategy against milestones includes
monitoring function reflecting the ‘expected NES improvement;
key points indicating key developments (key events) that would note milestones on the way to
desirable targets;
KIND FRAMEWORK The KIND framework (elaborated within the INPRO KIND CP) provides recommendations and tools
on a full cycle of MCDA application for NES comparative evaluation:
Scoring scale selection for indicators’ assessment
MCDA method selection (value-based, outranking, reference-based, other/hybrid methods)
Value function shape evaluation (linear, polynomial, exponential, logarithmic, piecewise forms)
Weighting factor identification (direct, rating, ranking, pairwise comparisons, swing methods)
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (direct, stochastic approaches)
Results representation (color codes, heat maps, aggregation in costs-risks-benefits categories)
GAINS NES SCENARIOS COMPARATIVE EVALUATION
http://www.hindawi.com/journals/stni/2015/910162/
MONITORING/TRACING GAINS SCENARIOS Scenarios Comments
HG0-High-L1H1-FC1-N BAU
HG0-High-L1L2H1-FC3-N modified BAU
HG0-High-L1L2H1F1-FC3-N homogenous
NG0Sep-High-L1L2H1F1-FC3-N separate
NG0Syn-High-L1L2H1F1-FC3-N synergetic
Monitoring indicators Expected improvement
(1) Uranium consumption Reduction of uranium consumption
(2) Enrichment capacity Reduction of enrichment capacity
(3) Reprocessing capacity Reduction of reprocessing capacity
(4) SNF in long-term storage Reduction of SNF in long-term storage
(5) Pu amount Reduction of Pu amount
(5) MA amount Reduction of MA amount
(1) (2) (3)
(4) (5) (6)
CONCLUSIONS
• ROADMAPS represents as an integrated framework allowing assimilation of achievements
of the INPRO section on the ‘Global scenarios’ task (KIND, GAINS, SYNERGIES projects)
targeting to provide additive values for decision makers related to NES deployment strategy
elaboration and justification.
• Within ROADMAPS it looks reasonable to adapt well-founded and effective analytical
roadmapping tools for sustainable NES roadmapping project by providing
recommendations regarding implementation of best-practices and developing patterns,
templates, frameworks illustrating sustainable NES-oriented roadmapping.
• Adaptation of quantative software tools and models elaborated within INPRO activities in
the areas of NES assessment, modeling and comparative evaluation provides a chance to
cover basic steps of roadmapping activities: visioning, roadmap elaboration and monitoring.
• Such tools provide added value to the studies related to NES sustainability roadmapping
projects, which may be considered as an additional service to Member State being
provided by the INPRO section.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION