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Managing Climate Change, Water Resources,and Food Security in South AsiaPresentation at
6th South Asia Economic SummitColombo, Sri Lanka2-4 September 2013
by
South Asia Watch on Trade Economics and Environment (SWATEE)
Kathmandu, Nepal
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Presentation outline
Evidences of climate change
Increased vulnerability of climate change
What is at stake?
Impacts on water resources
Impacts on agriculture and food security
Measures at national level
Measures at regional level
Conclusions
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Is climate change real: some evidences ofclimate change
Observed climate change in different countries in South Asia
Country Change in temperature Change in precipitation
Bangladesh Increasing trend of about 1oC in May and
0.5oC in November from 1985 to 1998
Decadal rain anomalies above long term
average since 1960s
India 0.68oC increase/century with increasing
trends in annual mean temperature and
warming more pronounced during postmonsoon and winter
Increase in extreme rains in north-west
during summer monsoon in recent
decades and lower number of rainy daysalong east coast.
Nepal 0.09oC increase per year in Himalayas
and 0.04oC in Terai region with more in
winter
No distinct long-term trends in
precipitation records for 1948-1994
Pakistan 0.6-1.0oC increase in mean temperature
in coastal areas since early 1900s
10-15% decrease in coastal belt and
hyper arid plains and increase in summer
and winter precipitation over the last 40
years in northern Pakistan
Sri Lanka 0.016oC increase/year between 1961 to
1990 over entire country and 2oC
increase/year in central highlands
An increase trend in February and
decrease trend in June
Source (Cruz et al. 2007)
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Increased vulnerability of climate change (1)
Increase in temperatures and extreme heat
Change in the monsoon pattern
Increased intensity of extreme weather events, includingflooding and tropical cyclones
Sea level rise
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Increased vulnerability of climate change (2)
Potential climate change impacts
Country Climate change impacts
Afghanistan Droughts, glacial melt, flash floods, landslides
Bangladesh Droughts, cyclones and storm surges, flooding, sea level
rise and inundation of low lying areas
Bhutan Glacial lake outburst floods, droughts, landslidesIndia Droughts, heavy rainfalls leading to flash floods,
inundation of low lying coastal areas, glacial melt
Maldives Inundation of islands, storm surges, droughts
Nepal Glacial melt, Glacial lake outburst floods, reduced riverflows, floods, landslides
Pakistan Droughts, flash floods, glacial melt, reduced river flows,inundation of low-lying coastal areas
Sri Lanka Droughts, flash floods, cyclones, landslides, inundation
of low-lying coastal areasSource: Dissanaike, IFAD 2008
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What is at stake?
One fifth of worldspopulation;
Unique geographyshapes the livelihoodand 75% of theregions populationdepend on agricultureand it is a major sourceof employment
Most of the farmlandare un-irrigated,monsoon basedfarming andagricultureproductivity is low
Majority of thepopulation live under$1.25/day
More than 300 millionpeople areundernourished
Statistical overviewCountry Populati
on(millions
)
Arableland (%)
Irrigatedland (%)
Cerealyield
(kg/ha)Agricult
ureemployment(%)
% ofpopulation
below$1.25/day
(year)
Undernourished
population(millions)
Prevalence offood
inadequacy(2010-2012)
(%)Afghanistan 35.3 12.13 5.4 1659.9 78.6 36
(2009)
12 45.2
Bangladesh 150.5 55.39 52.6 4191.0 48.1 43.3(2010)
25 26.8
Bhutan 0.7 2.3 6.7 2705.2 65.4 10.2(2007)
0.19 -
India 1,241.5 48.83 35.2 2883.3 51.1 32.7(2010)
217 27.5
Maldives 0.30 13.33 2507.5 21.2
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What is at stake?
Most of the people do nothave safe drinking water
High prevalence of rain-fed farming , but freshwater withdrawal isincreasing
Agriculture is the mainuser of freshwater About 70 million people
live in coastal area that lie5 metre or less above sealevel
More than 21 millionpeople were affected by
floods and landslides
Statistical overview (contd..)Country Piped
wateraccess (%)
Total waterwithdrawal
(millionm3/yr)
Waterwithdrawal
byagriculture
(%)
Populationbelow 5meter
elevation(mn)
Peopleaffected byfloods andlandslides
Afghanistan 4 23123 98.8 0 -
Bangladesh 6 35870 87.8 20.9 600,000
Bhutan 57 338 94.1 0 15000
India 23 761000 90.4 46.6 2,000,000
Maldives 39 6 0 0.3 -
Nepal 18 9787 98.2 0 85,000
Pakistan 36 183450 94 2.2 300,000
Sri Lanka 29 12946 87.4 1.1 45,000
Source: ADB 2013, World Bank 2013, FAO 2013, Climate Vulnerable Monitor
2012.
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Climate change impact/ implications on waterresources
Extreme rainfall and flood Increasing seasonality precipitation and drought
Declining snowfall and glacial loss
Sea level rise
Increased tropical cyclone intensity
Reduced energy production
Tension over the use of water
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Climate change impacts/implications on foodsecurity
Increased competition for water within and between sectors,transferring water out of agriculture
Decline in crop yields fluctuating temperature (heat stress) and precipitation (agriculture and its
dependence on monsoon) and its impact on agriculture and food production
(shorter growing season and reduced crop yields) floods result in sediment deposition in agriculture land and deterioration in
the quality of land and crop production.
Shift cultivation to lower cooler elevation where steep slopes are susceptibleto landslides and unsuitable for agriculture.
Most dramatic impact will be felt in arid zones and flood affected areas,where agriculture is already at the edge.
Decline in agriculture biodiversity
High cost of adaptation
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Measures at national level
Internalize the challenge of water-food-energy nexus in policy
framework
Conserve water and energy sources
Increase investment in agriculture
Built resilient farming system
Promote community based adaptation
Move beyond the farm paradigm
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Measures at regional level (1)
Recognize trans-boundary nature of climate change andriver system needs regional cooperation
Strengthen SAARC platform to address climate changeissue with SAARC Climate Fund and Research Center,establishment of Early Warning Systems for climatic
disaster management, among others. Proactive sharing of information on hazards such as floods,
droughts, and increasing risk-pooling insurance facilities.
Manage the water and related natural resources on the basis
of trans-boundary river basins for mutual benefit andsustainable development
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Measures at regional level
Operationalize and strengthen SAARC Food Bank and Gene
Bank
Reform regional trade regime
Enhance collaborative activities and mutual learning inagriculture research, including trans-boundary diseases andclimate friendly technology
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Conclusions
South Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change.
Climate change its impact on food and water security affect the socio-economic condition of the region, and theimpact will be felt more by low income and ruralpopulation.
National level initiatives need to be collaborated by regionalactions to address problems of climate change, waterresources and food security.
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Thanks foryour kind attention
Suggestions/ comments
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