6th saes - presentation by posh raj pandey (sawtee, nepal) on climate change, water resources and...

7/29/2019 6th SAES - Presentation by Posh Raj Pandey (SAWTEE, Nepal) on Climate Change, Water Resources and Food Security in South Asia

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Managing Climate Change, Water Resources,and Food Security in South AsiaPresentation at

6th South Asia Economic SummitColombo, Sri Lanka2-4 September 2013

by

South Asia Watch on Trade Economics and Environment (SWATEE)

Kathmandu, Nepal


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Presentation outline

Evidences of climate change

Increased vulnerability of climate change

What is at stake?

Impacts on water resources

Impacts on agriculture and food security

Measures at national level

Measures at regional level

Conclusions


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Is climate change real: some evidences ofclimate change

Observed climate change in different countries in South Asia

Country Change in temperature Change in precipitation

Bangladesh Increasing trend of about 1oC in May and

0.5oC in November from 1985 to 1998

Decadal rain anomalies above long term

average since 1960s

India 0.68oC increase/century with increasing

trends in annual mean temperature and

warming more pronounced during postmonsoon and winter

Increase in extreme rains in north-west

during summer monsoon in recent

decades and lower number of rainy daysalong east coast.

Nepal 0.09oC increase per year in Himalayas

and 0.04oC in Terai region with more in

winter

No distinct long-term trends in

precipitation records for 1948-1994

Pakistan 0.6-1.0oC increase in mean temperature

in coastal areas since early 1900s

10-15% decrease in coastal belt and

hyper arid plains and increase in summer

and winter precipitation over the last 40

years in northern Pakistan

Sri Lanka 0.016oC increase/year between 1961 to

1990 over entire country and 2oC

increase/year in central highlands

An increase trend in February and

decrease trend in June

Source (Cruz et al. 2007)


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Increased vulnerability of climate change (1)

Increase in temperatures and extreme heat

Change in the monsoon pattern

Increased intensity of extreme weather events, includingflooding and tropical cyclones

Sea level rise


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Increased vulnerability of climate change (2)

Potential climate change impacts

Country Climate change impacts

Afghanistan Droughts, glacial melt, flash floods, landslides

Bangladesh Droughts, cyclones and storm surges, flooding, sea level

rise and inundation of low lying areas

Bhutan Glacial lake outburst floods, droughts, landslidesIndia Droughts, heavy rainfalls leading to flash floods,

inundation of low lying coastal areas, glacial melt

Maldives Inundation of islands, storm surges, droughts

Nepal Glacial melt, Glacial lake outburst floods, reduced riverflows, floods, landslides

Pakistan Droughts, flash floods, glacial melt, reduced river flows,inundation of low-lying coastal areas

Sri Lanka Droughts, flash floods, cyclones, landslides, inundation

of low-lying coastal areasSource: Dissanaike, IFAD 2008


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What is at stake?

One fifth of worldspopulation;

Unique geographyshapes the livelihoodand 75% of theregions populationdepend on agricultureand it is a major sourceof employment

Most of the farmlandare un-irrigated,monsoon basedfarming andagricultureproductivity is low

Majority of thepopulation live under$1.25/day

More than 300 millionpeople areundernourished

Statistical overviewCountry Populati

on(millions

)

Arableland (%)

Irrigatedland (%)

Cerealyield

(kg/ha)Agricult

ureemployment(%)

% ofpopulation

below$1.25/day

(year)

Undernourished

population(millions)

Prevalence offood

inadequacy(2010-2012)

(%)Afghanistan 35.3 12.13 5.4 1659.9 78.6 36

(2009)

12 45.2

Bangladesh 150.5 55.39 52.6 4191.0 48.1 43.3(2010)

25 26.8

Bhutan 0.7 2.3 6.7 2705.2 65.4 10.2(2007)

0.19 -

India 1,241.5 48.83 35.2 2883.3 51.1 32.7(2010)

217 27.5

Maldives 0.30 13.33 2507.5 21.2


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What is at stake?

Most of the people do nothave safe drinking water

High prevalence of rain-fed farming , but freshwater withdrawal isincreasing

Agriculture is the mainuser of freshwater About 70 million people

live in coastal area that lie5 metre or less above sealevel

More than 21 millionpeople were affected by

floods and landslides

Statistical overview (contd..)Country Piped

wateraccess (%)

Total waterwithdrawal

(millionm3/yr)

Waterwithdrawal

byagriculture

(%)

Populationbelow 5meter

elevation(mn)

Peopleaffected byfloods andlandslides

Afghanistan 4 23123 98.8 0 -

Bangladesh 6 35870 87.8 20.9 600,000

Bhutan 57 338 94.1 0 15000

India 23 761000 90.4 46.6 2,000,000

Maldives 39 6 0 0.3 -

Nepal 18 9787 98.2 0 85,000

Pakistan 36 183450 94 2.2 300,000

Sri Lanka 29 12946 87.4 1.1 45,000

Source: ADB 2013, World Bank 2013, FAO 2013, Climate Vulnerable Monitor

2012.


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Climate change impact/ implications on waterresources

Extreme rainfall and flood Increasing seasonality precipitation and drought

Declining snowfall and glacial loss

Sea level rise

Increased tropical cyclone intensity

Reduced energy production

Tension over the use of water


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Climate change impacts/implications on foodsecurity

Increased competition for water within and between sectors,transferring water out of agriculture

Decline in crop yields fluctuating temperature (heat stress) and precipitation (agriculture and its

dependence on monsoon) and its impact on agriculture and food production

(shorter growing season and reduced crop yields) floods result in sediment deposition in agriculture land and deterioration in

the quality of land and crop production.

Shift cultivation to lower cooler elevation where steep slopes are susceptibleto landslides and unsuitable for agriculture.

Most dramatic impact will be felt in arid zones and flood affected areas,where agriculture is already at the edge.

Decline in agriculture biodiversity

High cost of adaptation


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Measures at national level

Internalize the challenge of water-food-energy nexus in policy

framework

Conserve water and energy sources

Increase investment in agriculture

Built resilient farming system

Promote community based adaptation

Move beyond the farm paradigm


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Measures at regional level (1)

Recognize trans-boundary nature of climate change andriver system needs regional cooperation

Strengthen SAARC platform to address climate changeissue with SAARC Climate Fund and Research Center,establishment of Early Warning Systems for climatic

disaster management, among others. Proactive sharing of information on hazards such as floods,

droughts, and increasing risk-pooling insurance facilities.

Manage the water and related natural resources on the basis

of trans-boundary river basins for mutual benefit andsustainable development


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Measures at regional level

Operationalize and strengthen SAARC Food Bank and Gene

Bank

Reform regional trade regime

Enhance collaborative activities and mutual learning inagriculture research, including trans-boundary diseases andclimate friendly technology


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Conclusions

South Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change.

Climate change its impact on food and water security affect the socio-economic condition of the region, and theimpact will be felt more by low income and ruralpopulation.

National level initiatives need to be collaborated by regionalactions to address problems of climate change, waterresources and food security.


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Thanks foryour kind attention

Suggestions/ comments

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