Download - 2003-11-24 Anthropogenic Emission Trend Drivers, 1850-1990 Global Visibility (Smoke??) Trends
Anthropogenic Emission Trend Drivers, 1850-1990Global Visibility (Smoke??) Trends
GISS Carbonaceous Aerosol Trends WorkshopNovember 24, 2003, NYC
Rudolf Husar, CAPITA
Washington University
Atmospheric Environment 33 (1999) 3435-3444Estimating Historical Anthropogenic Global Sulfur Emission Patterns for the Period
1850-1990[1]Allen S. Lefohna,, Janja D. Husarb, Rudolf B. Husarb
Global S Emission Trend, 1850-1990
Visibility-Population Density ComparisonIn India bext and population density compare well
AVHRR satellite optical depth data over the oceans, 1988-90
MODIS AOT, 2002 MODIS Team
Features of Global Smoke Emissions
ATSR Fire Locations 1993
MISR Seasonal AOT (MISR Team)
Major smoke emission regions by season
Continental Visibility data
• Surface visual range observations.
• Over 8000 stations' throughout the six continents.
• The on line data files from NCDC
• Explored: January, 1994 through October 1997.
• 1997- data available
Extinction Coefficient Contours, km-1
West Central Africa
Dec Jan Feb peak
Regular, each year
No trends ??
DJF MAM
JJA SON
MISR
Central Africa
Dec Jan Feb peak
Regular, each year
No trends ??
DJF MAM
JJA SON
MISR
Central Africa
Jun Jul Aug peak
Regular, each year
No trends
DJF MAM
JJA SON
MISR
South America
DJF MAM
JJA SON
Aug Sep peak
Regular + Irregular
Upward trend
MISR
South America
DJF MAM
JJA SONAug Sep peak
Regular + Irregular
Upward trend
MISR
Central America
DJF MAM
JJA SONMar Apr May peak
Regular + Irregular
Downward trend
MISR
Indochina
DJF MAM
JJA SONApr & Oct peak
Irregular
Upward trends ??
MISR
Indonesia
Apr & Oct peak
Irregular
Upward trends ??
DJF MAM
JJA SON
MISR
Central America
DJF MAM
JJA SONMar Apr May peak
Regular + Irregular
Downward trend
MISR
Central America
DJF MAM
JJA SONMar Apr May peak
Regular + Irregular
Downward trend
MISR
South America and Central Africa Extinction Coefficient
India
Dec Jan Feb peak
Regular, each year
No trends
MISR
Conclusions?
• Global fossil fuel consumption trends data are available– Require historical emission factors for carbonatious aerosols
• Satellite data provide spatial/seasonal pattern– Limited trends information over cloud-free areas– No aerosol speciation– No info on vertical distribution
• Visibility data provide 30-40-year record– Surface concentration over continental areas only– No speciation– Semi quantitative