Download - 1.crustal deformation earthquakes
Using Crustal Deformation
measurements to gauge future earthquakes
Cascadia Hazards Institute
Dept. of Geological Sciences
Central Washington University
www.cascadiahazards.org
Timothy I. Melbourne
Crustal Deformation & Earthquakes1. Cascadia Subduction Zone
2. Measuring how Earth’s surface deforms (crustal deformation)
3. A lesson from Japan
4. Computer simulation of a Magnitude-9 Cascadia earthquake
Seattle (4m)
Vancouver (3m)
Rex FlakeAndrew MinerMarcelo SantillanCraig ScrivnerWalter Szeliga
Aaron MayfieldRodger WilsonAna AguiarJames ChapmanIvan Rabak
Megan KostickRosie StahlKyle KinkadeWendy StockwellSergio Abundiz
CascadiaMag-9
earthquake in themaking
Test 1: comparison with current interseismic deformation:
A rough forecast of future slip after full recurrence interval
GPS stations with ~10 years of measurements
Data from Leonard et al, 2004
ETS-delineated coupling model: Replicates gross distribution of paleoseismic subsidence
GPS stations with ~10 years of measurements
Japan’s GEONET GPS ARRAY (1995)
March 11 M9.0 Tohoku Earthquake
2011 Tohoku-Oki 3d GPS displacements (3x speed)
WA coastal communities move ~75’ and subside ~10’