1.crustal deformation earthquakes
DESCRIPTION
April 4, 2014 Panel 1 Dr. Melbourne Cascadia Hazards Institute @ CWU Seismic Hazards & the Built EnvironmentTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Using Crustal Deformation
measurements to gauge future earthquakes
Cascadia Hazards Institute
Dept. of Geological Sciences
Central Washington University
www.cascadiahazards.org
Timothy I. Melbourne
![Page 2: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Crustal Deformation & Earthquakes1. Cascadia Subduction Zone
2. Measuring how Earth’s surface deforms (crustal deformation)
3. A lesson from Japan
4. Computer simulation of a Magnitude-9 Cascadia earthquake
![Page 3: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Seattle (4m)
Vancouver (3m)
![Page 5: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Rex FlakeAndrew MinerMarcelo SantillanCraig ScrivnerWalter Szeliga
Aaron MayfieldRodger WilsonAna AguiarJames ChapmanIvan Rabak
Megan KostickRosie StahlKyle KinkadeWendy StockwellSergio Abundiz
![Page 8: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
CascadiaMag-9
earthquake in themaking
![Page 10: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Test 1: comparison with current interseismic deformation:
![Page 11: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
A rough forecast of future slip after full recurrence interval
![Page 12: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
GPS stations with ~10 years of measurements
Data from Leonard et al, 2004
ETS-delineated coupling model: Replicates gross distribution of paleoseismic subsidence
![Page 13: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
GPS stations with ~10 years of measurements
![Page 14: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Japan’s GEONET GPS ARRAY (1995)
![Page 17: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
March 11 M9.0 Tohoku Earthquake
![Page 18: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
2011 Tohoku-Oki 3d GPS displacements (3x speed)
![Page 19: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
WA coastal communities move ~75’ and subside ~10’
![Page 20: 1.crustal deformation earthquakes](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022052601/55975f431a28ab7e5d8b457a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)