中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China 2013 年 11 月 14 日 November 14, 2013
如何平衡气候变化与经济增长BREAKING THE LINKSBETWEEN GROWTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE
安德鲁斯蒂尔博士 主席兼执行总裁 Andrew Steer President & CEO
六大全球挑战 SIX GLOBAL CHALLENGES
森林粮食
水资源气候变化
城市与交通能源
推广Scale It
改变Change It
量化Count It
我们的工作方法WRI’S APPROACH
以成效至上的数据分析和工具Managing for ResultsData, Analysis & Tools
提出系统性的建议并进行有效传播和沟通Systemic Adoption& Communications
开展一些列活动、对模式进行探索和检验、产生实质影响Convening, Testing &
Influencing
建立全球工作网络WRI’s COUNTRY NETWORK
同时,也是绿色增长的机遇…BUT SO DO OPPORTUNITIES FOR GREEN GROWTH.
资源挑战随着经济增长而更加严峻AS CHINA GROWS, SO DO ITS RESOURCE CHALLENGES…
更有力的环境政策会阻碍还是会促进经济发展? Will stronger environmental policies hurt or help the economy?
1. 双赢的机会远大于我们的估计1. Win-Win Opportunities are bigger than we thought.
(McKinsey 2010)
资源效率:双赢Resource Efficiency: Win-Wins
20
25
30
0
65
70
-5
总氮减排空间(吨)
18,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000
新建工业污染治理设施
总氮减排单位成本(万元/吨)
5
10
15
污水处理厂提标升级新建市政污水处理厂
污泥处理人工湿地养殖场沼气工程
户用沼气池小麦测土配方施肥水稻测土配方施肥
水生蔬菜
2015 减排目标:7400吨
工业措施城市污水措施
农业措施
1200
1500
730
1600
2800
1300810
20004200
巢湖流域总氮 PROA 分析PROA Analysis of Chao Lake
(Draft. Not for distribution)
2. 科技变革比我们想象的更快!2. Technology Change can be induced more quickly than we thought!
技术变革 Directed Technical ChangePorter and van der Linde (1995)…Acemoglu and others (2011)
… which leads to increased competitiveness… 从而提高市场竞争力 .
Policy promotes innovation 政策促进创新
OECD 2010
Index of innovation in climate change mitigation technologies (1990 = 1)
技术变革 Directed Technical Change
光伏成本的下降Falling Costs in Solar PV
(US Department of Energy, 2011)
(Pew 2012)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
GW
China U.S. Germany Spain Italy Japan India France Brazil
可再生能源装机容量RENEWABLE ENERGY INSTALLED CAPACITY IN CHINA
RENEWABLE ENERGY | INSTALLED WIND CAPACITY可再生能源 | 风电装机容量
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
ChinaGermanyIndiaUnited States
Tota
l Ins
talle
d W
ind
Capa
city
(GW
)
Source: BP
两大挑战:( i )城镇化( ii )摆脱“煤炭依赖”Two Crucial Test Cases for these
hypotheses:(i) Urbanization
(ii) The transition from Coal
1. 可持续城镇化URBANIZATION TOWARD SUSTAINABLITY
中国面临的挑战CHINA’S COMING CHALLENGES
530 Million in 2005
315 Million in 2008
(McKinsey Global Institute 2012, )
前所未有的城镇化进程CHINESE URBANIZATION UNPRECEDENTED
INDIAN CITIES SLOWER
urban contribution to GDP
39%Urban contribution to GDP
78%Million people living in cities in 2025930
530 Million in 2025
自然资源 & 环境容量Natural resource & environment capacity
废弃物 & 污染Wastes &pollutants...
生产 & 消费Production &consumption
回收和控制废弃物 & 减少污染Recycle and control wastes & pollutants
提高效率Improve efficiency& consumption
城市是生态系统的一个熵增系统CITY AS A SYSTEM OF ENTROPY
创建低碳城市典范CREATING LOW CARBON CITY MODELSCHENGDU, 中国成都 QINGDAO青岛
Partner cities
Government buy-in
Blueprint Toolkits Demo
projectsScaling
up
基准线Baseline
技术路线图Technology Roadmap
跟踪评估Performance
tracking实施
Implemen-tation
规划蓝图的编制和实施过程 Blueprint preparation and implementation process
示范项目 Demonstration projects
规划蓝图Blueprints
行动计划ActionPlan
成都市低碳发展规划蓝图研究Chengdu LC blueprint study
情景分析Scenario
Development
设定和分解目标 Target Setting & Allocation
投资分析Investment
analysis
进展SIGNS OF PROGRESS
2013 年 9 月:中国政府颁布《大气污染防治行动计划》September 2013: Government of China announced national plan to curb air pollution
2. 降低煤炭使用2. SHIFTING AWAY FROM COAL
(WRI 2012)
计划新增煤电产能PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
(WRI 2012)
印度INDIA
计划新增煤电产能PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
(WRI 2012)
印度INDIA
中国CHINA
计划新增煤电产能PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
(Pew 2012)
51%计划新建煤电厂在极度缺水地区Proposed coal power capacity in areas of high or extremely high water stress
PROVIDING TOOLS FOR DECISION-MAKINGMAPPING WATER RISK WITH AQUEDUCT
(WRI 2013)
77% 批准新建的煤制天然气产能分布在极度缺水地区。很可能与当地其他用水形成竞争。
中国的环境退化损失严重CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IS VERY COSTLY
Syria
Nepal
Leba
non
Cambod
ia
Morocc
o
Algeria
PeruBenin
Banglad
esh
Egypt
Pakistan
Iran
Nigeria
C.A.R
.
Avera
geChin
a
Tajikist
an
Ghana
0
2
4
6
8
10
Cos
t of e
nviro
nmen
tal d
egra
datio
n as
% o
f GD
P eq
uiva
lent
9.2% OF GDP
(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)
(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)
GDP CO2 Steel Coal Timber Palm Oil Fish0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
India
China
有限的资源LIMITED RESOURCES全球消耗总量占比PERCENTAGE OF GLOBAL CONSUMPTION
谢谢Thank you !www.wri.org
中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China 2013 年 11 月 14 日 November 14, 2013
安德鲁斯蒂尔博士 主席兼执行总裁 Andrew Steer, President & CEO