中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 cciced annual meeting | beijing,...
DESCRIPTION
如 何平衡气候变化与经济增长 BREAKING THE LINKS BETWEEN GROWTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE. 安德鲁 斯蒂尔博士 主 席兼执行总 裁 Andrew Steer President & CEO. 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China 2013 年 11 月 14 日 November 14, 2013
如何平衡气候变化与经济增长BREAKING THE LINKSBETWEEN GROWTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE
安德鲁斯蒂尔博士 主席兼执行总裁 Andrew Steer President & CEO
![Page 2: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
六大全球挑战 SIX GLOBAL CHALLENGES
森林粮食
水资源气候变化
城市与交通能源
![Page 3: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
推广Scale It
改变Change It
量化Count It
我们的工作方法WRI’S APPROACH
以成效至上的数据分析和工具Managing for ResultsData, Analysis & Tools
提出系统性的建议并进行有效传播和沟通Systemic Adoption& Communications
开展一些列活动、对模式进行探索和检验、产生实质影响Convening, Testing &
Influencing
![Page 4: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
建立全球工作网络WRI’s COUNTRY NETWORK
![Page 5: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
同时,也是绿色增长的机遇…BUT SO DO OPPORTUNITIES FOR GREEN GROWTH.
资源挑战随着经济增长而更加严峻AS CHINA GROWS, SO DO ITS RESOURCE CHALLENGES…
![Page 6: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
更有力的环境政策会阻碍还是会促进经济发展? Will stronger environmental policies hurt or help the economy?
![Page 7: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
1. 双赢的机会远大于我们的估计1. Win-Win Opportunities are bigger than we thought.
![Page 8: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
(McKinsey 2010)
资源效率:双赢Resource Efficiency: Win-Wins
![Page 9: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
20
25
30
0
65
70
-5
总氮减排空间(吨)
18,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,000
新建工业污染治理设施
总氮减排单位成本(万元/吨)
5
10
15
污水处理厂提标升级新建市政污水处理厂
污泥处理人工湿地养殖场沼气工程
户用沼气池小麦测土配方施肥水稻测土配方施肥
水生蔬菜
2015 减排目标:7400吨
工业措施城市污水措施
农业措施
1200
1500
730
1600
2800
1300810
20004200
巢湖流域总氮 PROA 分析PROA Analysis of Chao Lake
(Draft. Not for distribution)
![Page 10: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
2. 科技变革比我们想象的更快!2. Technology Change can be induced more quickly than we thought!
![Page 11: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
技术变革 Directed Technical ChangePorter and van der Linde (1995)…Acemoglu and others (2011)
… which leads to increased competitiveness… 从而提高市场竞争力 .
Policy promotes innovation 政策促进创新
![Page 12: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
OECD 2010
Index of innovation in climate change mitigation technologies (1990 = 1)
技术变革 Directed Technical Change
![Page 13: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
光伏成本的下降Falling Costs in Solar PV
(US Department of Energy, 2011)
![Page 14: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
(Pew 2012)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
GW
China U.S. Germany Spain Italy Japan India France Brazil
可再生能源装机容量RENEWABLE ENERGY INSTALLED CAPACITY IN CHINA
![Page 15: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
RENEWABLE ENERGY | INSTALLED WIND CAPACITY可再生能源 | 风电装机容量
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
ChinaGermanyIndiaUnited States
Tota
l Ins
talle
d W
ind
Capa
city
(GW
)
Source: BP
![Page 16: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
两大挑战:( i )城镇化( ii )摆脱“煤炭依赖”Two Crucial Test Cases for these
hypotheses:(i) Urbanization
(ii) The transition from Coal
![Page 17: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
1. 可持续城镇化URBANIZATION TOWARD SUSTAINABLITY
中国面临的挑战CHINA’S COMING CHALLENGES
![Page 18: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
530 Million in 2005
315 Million in 2008
(McKinsey Global Institute 2012, )
前所未有的城镇化进程CHINESE URBANIZATION UNPRECEDENTED
INDIAN CITIES SLOWER
urban contribution to GDP
39%Urban contribution to GDP
78%Million people living in cities in 2025930
530 Million in 2025
![Page 19: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
自然资源 & 环境容量Natural resource & environment capacity
废弃物 & 污染Wastes &pollutants...
生产 & 消费Production &consumption
回收和控制废弃物 & 减少污染Recycle and control wastes & pollutants
提高效率Improve efficiency& consumption
城市是生态系统的一个熵增系统CITY AS A SYSTEM OF ENTROPY
![Page 20: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
创建低碳城市典范CREATING LOW CARBON CITY MODELSCHENGDU, 中国成都 QINGDAO青岛
![Page 21: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Partner cities
Government buy-in
Blueprint Toolkits Demo
projectsScaling
up
基准线Baseline
技术路线图Technology Roadmap
跟踪评估Performance
tracking实施
Implemen-tation
规划蓝图的编制和实施过程 Blueprint preparation and implementation process
示范项目 Demonstration projects
规划蓝图Blueprints
行动计划ActionPlan
成都市低碳发展规划蓝图研究Chengdu LC blueprint study
情景分析Scenario
Development
设定和分解目标 Target Setting & Allocation
投资分析Investment
analysis
![Page 22: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
进展SIGNS OF PROGRESS
2013 年 9 月:中国政府颁布《大气污染防治行动计划》September 2013: Government of China announced national plan to curb air pollution
![Page 23: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
2. 降低煤炭使用2. SHIFTING AWAY FROM COAL
![Page 24: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
(WRI 2012)
计划新增煤电产能PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
![Page 25: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
(WRI 2012)
印度INDIA
计划新增煤电产能PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
![Page 26: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
(WRI 2012)
印度INDIA
中国CHINA
计划新增煤电产能PROPOSED NEW COAL POWER CAPACITY
![Page 27: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
(Pew 2012)
51%计划新建煤电厂在极度缺水地区Proposed coal power capacity in areas of high or extremely high water stress
![Page 28: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
PROVIDING TOOLS FOR DECISION-MAKINGMAPPING WATER RISK WITH AQUEDUCT
(WRI 2013)
77% 批准新建的煤制天然气产能分布在极度缺水地区。很可能与当地其他用水形成竞争。
![Page 29: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
中国的环境退化损失严重CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION IS VERY COSTLY
Syria
Nepal
Leba
non
Cambod
ia
Morocc
o
Algeria
PeruBenin
Banglad
esh
Egypt
Pakistan
Iran
Nigeria
C.A.R
.
Avera
geChin
a
Tajikist
an
Ghana
0
2
4
6
8
10
Cos
t of e
nviro
nmen
tal d
egra
datio
n as
% o
f GD
P eq
uiva
lent
9.2% OF GDP
(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)
![Page 30: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
(World Bank reports, 2005-2012)
GDP CO2 Steel Coal Timber Palm Oil Fish0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
India
China
有限的资源LIMITED RESOURCES全球消耗总量占比PERCENTAGE OF GLOBAL CONSUMPTION
![Page 31: 中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022081416/56816705550346895ddb69d1/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
谢谢Thank you !www.wri.org
中国环境与发展国际合作委员会年会 | 北京 CCICED Annual Meeting | Beijing, China 2013 年 11 月 14 日 November 14, 2013
安德鲁斯蒂尔博士 主席兼执行总裁 Andrew Steer, President & CEO