donald fournier building research council school of architecture university of illinois at...
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Donald FournierBuilding Research Council
School of Architecture University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Sustainability, Energy, and the Energy/Water Nexus
WMRC Sustainability Seminar
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Overview Background (US and
World Energy situation).
Sustainability and the tech fix.
Can we get there? The Energy Water/
Nexus.
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World Energy Use (Quads)
Source: DOE/EIA International Energy Outlook 2007
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US Energy Use (Quads)
Source: DOE/EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007
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US Electric Generation by Fuel
Source: DOE/EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2006
2006 – 4,065 B kWh
Bill
ion
kWh
Should be 3927 B kWh
(2 years ahead)
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Source:
ASPO Sep 2006
Actual Production2003 – 79.62 Mbd2004 – 83.12 Mbd2005 – 84.63 Mbd2006 – 84.60 Mbd2007 – 84.34 Mbd
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Petroleum Prices
DOE/EIA, November 2007
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Natural Gas Prices
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Natural Gas Prices
Source: DOE/EIA 2007Source: DOE/EIA 2007 (thru August)
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Coal Prices
Source: DOE/EIA 2007
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U.S. Energy Flows 2006
Source: DOE/EIA 200769%
22%
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Renewable Energy
US Energy Production Last year:
PV grew 33%
Wind grew 27%
Biofuels grew >23%
Coal grew 2.5%
Natural Gas grew 2.3%
Oil grew 1.0%
Nuclear Electric grew 1.0%
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Atmospheric CO2
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Carbon Emissions
““Unknowingly, the Unknowingly, the architecture and architecture and building community is building community is responsible for almost responsible for almost half of all U.S. half of all U.S. greenhouse gas greenhouse gas emissions annually. emissions annually. Globally the Globally the percentage is even percentage is even greater.”greater.”
US Energy Information Administration statistics Graphic Published first in Metropolis Magazine, October 2003 Issue
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Energy Trends in Buildings
Average energy consumption (Btu/sq. ft) Before 1920 80,127 1920 – 1945 90,234 1946 – 1959 80,198 1960 – 1969 90,976 1970 – 1979 94,968 1980 – 1989 100,077 1990 – 1999 88,834 2000 – 2003 79,703
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Source: EIA/DOE 2006 Energy Book They predict no improvement in efficiency
for the next 30 years for new or existing! What are they smoking???? Or ????
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Opportunity for Change Each year in the United States, we tear down
approximately 1.75 billion square feet of buildings, renovate 5 billion square feet, and build new another 5 billion square feet.
During the next 30 years, some 50 billion square feet will be torn down, some 150 billion will be renovated, and another 150 billion will be built new.
By 2030, three-quarters of the built environment will be either new or renovated.AIA COTE: Ecology and Design: Ecological Literacy in Architecture Education, 2006
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AIA 2030 Position Statement
Promote sustainable design including resource conservation to achieve a minimum 50 percent reduction from the current level of consumption of fossil fuels used to construct and operate new and renovated buildings by the year 2010, and promote further reductions of remaining fossil fuel consumption by 10 percent or more in each of the following five years.
Source: AIA November 2005
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AIA 2010 Goals AIA baseline is ENERGY STAR® Target Finder. This is the average building of that type in that weather
region. Average Office building in Chicago uses:
92.3 kBtu/sf (5,000 sf) 101.5 kBtu/sf (20,000 sf) 113.3 kBtu/sf (100,000 sf)
Pretty weak standard! ASHRAE Std 90.1-1999 yields about 67 kBtu/sf for an
office building (including plug loads). If we target 30% below that (about 47 kBtu/sf), you will
get an AIA 2010 building.
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ASHRAE Actions
Advanced Energy Design Guides: 30%, 50%, 75%, then Net Zero Energy Small Buildings (<20,000sf) Office, Retail, K-12 Schools, Warehouses, Highway
Lodging, High-rise Residential, and Existing Buildings.
Schedule: Complete all 30% guides by 2008. Complete all 50% guides by 2011. Complete all 70% guides by 2016. Complete “net-zero” guidance 2020.
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ASHRAE Actions/Initiatives
Standard 90.1-2007 Energy Standard for Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential Bldgs - 5 to -7% below 2004.
Standard 90.1-2010 Energy Standard for Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential Bldgs 30 percent reduction from 90.1-2004.
California requiring commercial buildings to be net zero energy by 2020 and residential building to be net zero energy by 2030.
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Why Be Energy Efficient?
Reduce operating costs. Stabilize atmospheric carbon & reduce global
climate change impacts. Improve the quality of life in our buildings and
communities. The energy efficiency policies, building and
appliance codes, incentives, and technology improvements in the U.S. since the mid-1970s now avoid the use of approximately: 40 quadrillion Btu—roughly 40 percent of the energy
currently consumed. Emission of more than 2 billion tons of CO2 per year.
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Energy Efficiency
The cost of saving energy is going down while the price of energy is going up.
Efficiency is the cleanest, cheapest, safest, and most secure source energy we have.
These savings from energy efficiency to date have not yet come close to tapping the full potential for savings.
Incentives are available under EPAct 2005 to get deductions and tax credits for energy efficiency and renewable energy.
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Energy Opportunities
SEDAC has looked at about 200 commercial buildings.
Potential energy savings ranged from a high of 80% to a low of 3%for existing buildings and between 86% and 12% for new designs.
Data from 70 existing buildings shows: 32% energy savings. 34% energy cost savings.
Data from 39 new building designs shows: 41% energy savings. 38% energy cost savings.
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Implications We estimate is costs a client about $68/million Btu to
save energy. This is heavily weighted towards retrofits. Our program of analysis costs about $16/million Btu of
recommended savings. Current energy costs are around $11/MBtu of Natural
Gas and $27/MBtu of Electricity. Energy savings are about 1/3 electricity and 2/3 natural
gas. Weighted cost of about $17 with a 4 year payback. (Not
good enough for many businesses.)
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Sustainability for a Region
Analyzed Fort Bragg, Fayetteville, NC, and the eight counties around it.
Modeled dynamic urban growth for 35 years into the future.
Develop energy and water projections associated with that growth based on business as usual.
Analyzed potential interventions to change the future.
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Project Future Change
Land Use Evolution andImpact Assessment Model(LEAM)
Columbus/Ft Benning
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Fort Bragg2000-20353% population growth per year
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Perform Gap Analysis
2000
2030
+ 500,000 population
+ 200,000 households+ 260 million sq. ft. of
commercial/industrial- 19,000 acres of
agriculture- 34,000 acres of forest
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The Concept
Current State
Possible Future Outcomes resulting from actions taken along the way
Preferred Future State
Current-Trend
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Energy Model
TOTAL ENERGY USAGE
Existing Comercial Industrial Bldg Stock
New Comm Ind Bldgs
Comm Ind Energy Usage
Existing Residential Bldg Stock
New Residential Bldgs
Transportation Energy Usage
Infrastructure Energy UsageResidential Energy Usage
Renewables
Agricultural Lands
Agricultural Energy Factors
Public Transit
Commercial Trans
Residentail Trans
Residential Energy Factors
Comm Energy Factors
Land Use Change
Land Use Change
Agricultural Energy Usage
Renewables
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Total Energy 41% Increase
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Energy Interventions Building Code Adoption over time:
2010 – 30% Reduction 2015 – 50% Reduction 2020 – 75% Reduction 2025 – Net Zero Energy Buildings
Existing Building Initiatives: 2015 – 20% Target 2025 – 40% Target
Agricultural Initiatives: 2015 – Energy Efficiency 35% Potential 2015 – Renewable Energy 25% Potential
Transportation Initiatives (2012 – 40%): Biofuels GHG Standards HEV/PHEV Penetration
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Energy Efficiency And Renewables
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Energy Intervention Scenario
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Air Emissions Model
AIR EMISSIONS
Nonpoint Source Emissions
LandUse Change
Agriculture
Technology Change
Point Source Emiisions
Emission Factors
Pollution Control Porgrams
Total Energy Consumption
Carbon Sequestration
Airshed Cleansing
Forests
Built Environment
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Air EmissionsA 48% Increase
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Air Emissions
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Regional CO2 Implications
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Water Model
TOTAL WATER USAGE
Existing Comercial Industrial Bldg Stock
New Comm Ind Bldgs
Comm Ind Water Usage
Existing Residential Bldg Stock
New Residential Bldgs
Infrastructure Water Losses
Residential Water Usage
Conservation Practices
Agricultural Lands
Agricultural Water Factors
Residential Water Factors
Comm Ind Water Factors
Land Use Change
Land Use Change
Agricultural Water Usage
Conservation Practices
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Intervention BMPs
Fort Bragg (2004) Public System Water Loss
Control (2010) Commercial/Industrial Water
Conservation Program (2012) Resident Water Conservation
Program (2015) Agricultural Water
Conservation Program (2018)
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Regional Actions
Regional intervention requires long tern approached with regional stakeholders to enable planning initiatives.
Intervention done in a timely manner can made a tremendous difference in a region.
The trick is getting all the vested interests to engage and actually start to change policy for a sustainable future
Incentives are required to get people to adopt new technology and new ways.
Water is more intractable than energy.
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Earth’s Water
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Energy/Water Nexus
The major fresh water consuming sectors are not buildings – they are agriculture and thermoelectric power.
Agriculture and thermoelectric use about 40% each, while buildings use about 12% of the supply.
Our energy security is closely linked to the state of our water resources. Water resources are require to achieve any sort of energy security in the years and decades ahead.
Our water security cannot be guaranteed without careful attention to related energy issues. The two issues are inextricably linked.
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Fresh Water in the US
USGS 2004
All numbers in MGD
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Energy/Water Nexus
Each kilowatt hour of electricity requires about 27 gallons of water.
500 MW coal-fired power plant requires over 12 million gallons per hour of water for cooling and other process requirements such as scrubbing sulfur dioxide from the stack gases.
Energy security rests on two principles – using less energy to provide needed services and having access to technologies that provide a diverse supply of reliable, affordable and environmentally sound energy.
Thermoelectric power plants don’t get us there.
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Proposed Energy Sources
New electrical sources that don’t use water: Photovoltaics Wind turbines Low-head hydro Coal gasification combined cycle (CGCC)
New energy sources for liquid fuels: Tar sands Oil shale Coal to liquids Biofuels – Ethanol & Biodiesel
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Source: USDOE, Oct 2007
Ethanol from Corn
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Water Associated
Oil Shale – 1-3 barrels per barrel oil Production level of 2.5 million bbl/day
requires 105-315 MGD. Associated water consumption with
development 58 MGD. Tar Sands – 2-4 barrels/bbl
Plus 4% of Canada NG supply. Coal to Liquids – 5-7 bbl/bbl.
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Energy/Water Nexus
Informs us that the path is not with traditional energy sources.
We must greatly increase the energy and water efficiency of our built environment and agriculture.
Water is going to be a bigger and tougher problem than energy to solve.
Non-water based renewables must be our focus.