When Geo

Professionals

Influence Decision

Makers…

National Academies of Sciences,

Engineering, and Medicine’s

Committee on Geological and

Geotechnical Engineering (COGGE)

March 2020

Eric C. Halpin, PE

Halpin Consulting LLC

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• My Risky Background

• What’s the Orientation of Our Profession?

• Decision Making 101

• Lessons Learned in Influencing Decisions• What Doesn’t Work Well

• What Does Work Well

• Challenges and Opportunities in Our Profession

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Discussion Topics

Karst Caves, Mosul Dam, Iraq

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My Risky

Background

Influencing People

Pulpit Rock, Norway

(2,000 feet above the fiords of Norway)

• As USACE Infrastructure Leader:• Owner and Self Regulator of +3,000

Infrastructure Systems

• Changed culture from Standards to Risk Informed

• Primary Communicator to the Administration, Congress, the “Watch-Dogs”, Internal Audiences, and the Public

• Career Geotechnical Professional

• As Private Consultant:• The Same Thing for Clients in Industry

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Seek to Understand

First

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Why?

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Make the Case

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

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Orientation of the Geo-Professional

Pulpit Rock, Norway

• Geo-Professionals Like To:• Follow Standards, But Often Are Not

Decision Oriented

• Observe Things (drink & guess)

• Tell you What They Did, Not Why

• Address Uncertainty with Over-Confidence and More Data

• Favor Precision over Accuracy

• Geo-Professionals Don’t Like To:• Say What They Don’t Know

• Dumb Down Their Talking Points

• Be Challenged By Decision Makers

• Talk About Risks

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Orientation of Our Profession

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Decision Making 101

Problem Identification

Imagine Solutions

Compare & Evaluate

Select & Communicate

Implement

Decision

9

Common

Mistakes to

Avoid…

• Premature Understanding of the Problem

• Start with Final Answer and Find Problems that Fit

• The Decision Basis and/or Process is not Clear or a Best Practice• Standards Vice Risk Informed

• Selected Alternatives are not Communicated Effectively• Support Wanes

• … and a General Rush to Implement• Decisions are Sub-Optimized

• False Confidence Expressed

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Lessons Learned in Influencing

Decisions

What Doesn’t Work Well!

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Equating Limit States with

FailureLessons on What Doesn’t Work Well

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This is what following limit states has resulted in…

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When Did Major Advancements in Our Profession Occur?

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Soil Mechanics

Seepage and Erosion Control

Slope Stability

Seismic Analysis

Risk and Dam Safety

Grouting and Foundation Treatment

Surface Erosion Control

State of the Art Advancements In Geotechnical Design

Pre-1969 Post 1969

65%Before1969

Reference: Bryant Robbins and Scott Shewbridge, USACE

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Choosing Precision Over

AccuracyLessons on What Doesn’t Work Well

“I’d rather be approximately right than precisely wrong.”J.M. Keynes

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Uncertainty Paradox

• Engineers Believe Decision Makers Demand Precision and certainty so We DOUBLE DOWN on what we know (and ignore the rest)

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Telling Instead of Showing

Lessons on What Doesn’t Work Well

The Volume of Water that Fell on HoustonDuring Hurricane Harvey

“Houston, Texas recorded the largest Rainfall on record within the continentalUnited States. Over 60 inches of precipitation in 48 hours. That’s when the gage broke.”

an H&H friend of mine…

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Carpet Bombing Vice Using Science to

Address Uncertainty

Lessons on What Doesn’t Work Well

If the Air Force Flew Missions Like Some Geotechnical Engineers Investigated Foundations

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Not Having a Practical

Understandingof the Problem

• Lessons on What Doesn’t Work Well

What’s Better, 20,000 PSI rock or 2,000 PSI Concrete?

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Economy Safety

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The Tyranny of Incremental

Conservatism (Disguised as

Safety)Lessons on What Doesn’t Work Well

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Stop Describing “What” Instead

of “Why”Lessons on What Doesn’t Work Well

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Lessons Learned in Influencing

Decisions

What Works Well!

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When Uncertain, Leverage

Science First

ResearchEducationStudiesScienceProfessional JournalsCase HistoriesExperienceExpertise

More DataMore PrecisionThe Uncertainty Paradox

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Learn to Be Decision Oriented

Lessons on What Works Well

• There are multiple design criteria on a single project – the resistance (Ω) to risk-informed design processes can be defined with the following equation*:

𝑹𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝑭𝒂𝒄𝒕𝒐𝒓 𝜴 = 𝒆𝑵𝒖𝒎𝒃𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒇 𝑪𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒊𝒂 ∗ 𝜷𝟐 +𝜱𝟒

where 𝛽 = number of design engineers involvedΦ = number of structural engineers involved

• Decision makers are more comfortable making risk-informed decisions than design engineers

*This formula is attributed to Nate Snorteland, Director of the USACE Risk Management Center

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Understanding How Things Can

Fail and the Consequences

Lessons on What Works Well

Challenger Explosion, 1986

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77.5% 2.00E-07240 240.3333333

77.5% Breach0 186.2583333

22.5% 5.80E-080 0

7.0% Heroic Intervention Fails0 144.3502083

22.5% 7.49E-080 0

0.0951% Lose Crest from Additional Slumping0 10.10451458

93.0% 4.42E-060 0

50.0% Flood0 0.009605065

0.6196% 0.0031%0 0

1.4997% 0.0075%0 0

97.7856% 0.4889%0 0

1.0% Slide not Repaired Prior to Flood0 0.004802532

50.0% 0.5%0 0

Rain Saturates Slope - Simultaneous River and Land Side Slide4.80253E-05

99.0% 99.0%0 0

Progressive Instability East

No

Yes

No

Yes

Historic Max - 50% Height

< Historic Max

75-100% Height

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

50-75% Height

Yes

Standards Based Understanding of Risk

FSGS = 1.0Based on lab data, specific loading

Is it safe? How confident are you?

What should you do?

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77.5% 2.00E-07240 240.3333333

77.5% Breach0 186.2583333

22.5% 5.80E-080 0

7.0% Heroic Intervention Fails0 144.3502083

22.5% 7.49E-080 0

0.0951% Lose Crest from Additional Slumping0 10.10451458

93.0% 4.42E-060 0

50.0% Flood0 0.009605065

0.6196% 0.0031%0 0

1.4997% 0.0075%0 0

97.7856% 0.4889%0 0

1.0% Slide not Repaired Prior to Flood0 0.004802532

50.0% 0.5%0 0

Rain Saturates Slope - Simultaneous River and Land Side Slide4.80253E-05

99.0% 99.0%0 0

Progressive Instability East

No

Yes

No

Yes

Historic Max - 50% Height

< Historic Max

75-100% Height

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

50-75% Height

Yes

Improving the Understanding of Risk

1. Recognize InitiationIs one part of failure

Continuum

6. What follows initiation?

2. Elicit judgments of experts

3. Evaluate multiple loading conditions

5. What precedesInitiation?

4. Consider past performance

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77.5% 2.00E-07240 240.3333333

77.5% Breach0 186.2583333

22.5% 5.80E-080 0

7.0% Heroic Intervention Fails0 144.3502083

22.5% 7.49E-080 0

0.0951% Lose Crest from Additional Slumping0 10.10451458

93.0% 4.42E-060 0

50.0% Flood0 0.009605065

0.6196% 0.0031%0 0

1.4997% 0.0075%0 0

97.7856% 0.4889%0 0

1.0% Slide not Repaired Prior to Flood0 0.004802532

50.0% 0.5%0 0

Rain Saturates Slope - Simultaneous River and Land Side Slide4.80253E-05

99.0% 99.0%0 0

Progressive Instability East

No

Yes

No

Yes

Historic Max - 50% Height

< Historic Max

75-100% Height

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

50-75% Height

Yes

Quantitative Understanding of Risk

- Duration Effects- Coincident Events- Threshold Events

- Likelihood of extreme events- Does a Flaw Exist?

- Size and nature of the failure surface- Limiting factors- Length effects- Uncertainty in Materials- Case Histories & Models

- Progression?- Intervention Successful- Breach- Warning & Detection- Losses

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• Confidence and Independence

• The Full Truth

• Evidence

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Respect Your Audience

Lessons on What Works Well

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Explain Ideas Considered But

Not ChosenLessons on What Works Well

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Challenges and Opportunities for

Our ProfessionImproving Geo-Decision

Making and Communication

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ContosoS u i t e s

• Not All Decision Makers are About Better Decisions

• Moving Away from Standards as a Decision Metric

• The Comfort of Geo Speak

• We are One Failure Away from Being Not-Credible

• Resilience and Sustainability Cost More in Short Term

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Challenges:

Improving Geo-Decision Making & Communication

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• Leveraging Big Data

• Help Decision Makers Move Away from BCR to Risk

• Visualization

• Be Better Advocates (Lobby the Right People)

• Tell Better Stories (Where are Our TED Talks?)

• Cooperate More

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Opportunities:

Improving Geo-Decision Making & Communication

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Something to think about…

Why is Risk Embraced in Concept But Not in Geo Practice?

Reference: Ignacio Escuder-Bueno & Eric Halpin (2016): Overcoming failure ininfrastructure risk governance implementation: large dams journey, Journal of Risk Research

Thank You