united nations nations unies economic and social

TED United Nations Nations Unies

ECONOMIC AND

SOCIAL COUNCIL ORIGINAL: ENGLISH

CONSEIL 27 May 1949

ECONOMIQUE ET SOCIAL

ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA

Multilateral Compensation of International Payments

in Latin America

Study submitted by the International

Monetary Font in accordance with the

Resolution of 24- June 1948 of the First

Session. of the Economic Commission for

Latin America

Contents page

2 I. Introduction

II. The Payments Problems of Latin America

1. External payments position

2. Trade and payments within Latin America

3. Relations with Europe

6

6

10

16

Possibilities of Compensation among Latin

American Currencies and with Europe

22

1. 2.

3.

22

23

27

General

Compensations within Latin America

Compensations with Europe

Summary and Conclusions 32

Appendix I. Tables of Latin American Trade

Appendix II. Trade and. Payments Agreements in

Latin America

"This document has been reproduced in New York from the original

issued at Havana"

6j, ,29

10. •

CY t

E/CN.12/87

I. Introduction

The Economic Commission for Latin America at its meeting at Santiago in June 1948 passed the following resolution: "The Economic Commission for Latin America requests the Secretary General to place before the International Monetary Fund a request that a study be made of the practi-cability and desirability of establishing, at the earliest possible oppor-tunity, as a transitional measure, machinery for the multilateral com-pensation of international payments among the countries of Latin America, as well as between them and the countries of the rest of the world."

In response to this request the present study has been prepared by members of the technical staff of the Fund and is not to be taken as an expression of the official views of the Fund.

The first part of the ECLA resolution has been interpreted as re-quiring a study of some kind of regional multilateral clearing system confined to Latin American currencies, The interpretation of the second part is more difficult. At the present time no general multilateral clearing arrangement would by itself directly meet Latin America's need for dollars. Latin American exports to Europe, for example, cannot be offset against United States exports to Latin America; because Europe itself is a net debtor to the United States. It is possible that what was contemplated in the resolution was some regional compensation embracing both Latin American and European currencies, so as to escape the restrictive influences which make themselves felt when Latin American and European countries are obliged to use dollars, which they need for imports from the United States, in payments between each other. The second part of the resolution will be interpreted as requiring a brief survey of such possibilities*

One purpose of a regional payments scheme is generally thought to be the creation of technical methods of payments to enable trade to be in-creased. It would be a mistake, however, to believe that technical payments difficulties are the most important obstacles in the way of an expansion of trade. Countries are sometimes prone to think in terms of these tech-nical difficulties when the situation is actually one of a balance of payments deficit which cannot be corrected by technical devices.

Whether a multilateral regional payments scheme will contribute much or little to solving genuine technical payments difficulties will depend on the structure of trade between the component parts of the region.

In some circumstances regional multilateral clearing would both iron out payments difficulties and increase the volume of trade. Under bilateral clearing, certain deficit and surplus positions are likely to arise and it would not be possible for any country to offset its deficits with certain members against its surpluses with others. If the currencies concerned could somehow be made interchangeable among themselves, each member of

2/CN.12/37

the group would be free to buy up to the limit of its overall net earnings from the others. If regional clearing were complete and automatic (all balances being offset to the greatest extent) the restrictive bilateral points of strain would be eased.

Whether this result will be achieved in practice depends, however, on the actual pattern of trade and payments within the group. Table shows an imaginary set of payments over a period of time between 5 countries, A, B , C, D, and E.

Table 1. Trade between Five Countries

(in millions of dollars)

Importing Country Total Exports A B

(A 0 6 1 8 15

( Exporting (8 5 4 2 1 12

( Country (C 2 1 8 0 11

( (D 10 10 1 0 21

( (E 0 o 1 5 6

Total Imports 17 11 12 16 9 65

Table 2 shows the balances between pairs of countries resulting from the transactions in Table 1. In this example the sum of bilateral credit or debit balances (they would be equal) is 851 million. But if these credits and debits are offset against each other to the maximum extent, an amount of $45 million can be "cleared", leaving only $6 million out-standing still to be financed.

Table 2. Trade Balances between Five Countries I/ (in millions of dollars)

A B C D E

A 5 -4 / 9 - 8

B -5 -3 /8 -1

C /4 /3 -7 /1

D -9 -8 /7 / 5

E / 8 / 1 - 1 - 5

Gross Credits /12 ,L 9 74 7 /17 L 6 ,L 51

Gross Debits -14_ - 8 - 8 -12 - 9 - 51

(Surplus (74) (Deficit (-) , - 2 ,Z 1 - 1 / 5 - 3 /6

-

1/ Debit or Credit sign refers to country in column head.

In this example the debit and credit balances in bilateral relation-ships were very high relatively to the volume of transactions between the partners, while each country had a very much more balanced position in relation to the group as a whole than to any other individual country, Thus in the group as a whole the proportion of bilaterally balanced trade to total transactions was low (9 per cent), and the proportion of multi-laterally compensable trade (69 per cent) was very high.

Table 3. Nature of Trade of Each Country with Four Others (in millions of dollais)

Total Turnover Bilaterally Balanced

Multilaterally Compensable

Net Surplus or Deficit

A 32 6 24 2 K- B 23 6 16 1 C 23 8 14 1 D 37 8 24 5 E 1L_____ 0 12 3

130 28 90 13

Above figures as percentages of total turnover: 100% 22% 69%

9%

Percentages shown in this table according to the method employed by ECE in a report of August 1948 on East-West Trade in Europe,

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0766

In such a case an arrangement for enabling currencies to be used anywhere in the group would offer considerable advantage in freeing trade from the restrictive tendencies imposed by the separate agreements.

Such a pattern of payments appears, however, to be exceptional. Where actual trade statistics in a given group are taken, the proportions are usually found to be more of the order of 50-80 per cent bilateralirm, 20-30 per cent net surplus, and 10-15 per cent multilaterally compensab7e. It is for this reason that the step from bilateral to multilateral clearing within a small group is unlikely to be directly very effective in increasing the volume of trade. If the proportions in a small moderately comple-mentary group are taken as 70 per cent, 20 per cent, and 10 per cent, the advantage obtained, in conditions of inconvertibility and the absence of

• any acceptable universal money, by establishing bilateral clearing may be considerable, but the further advantage from introducing third, fourth, fifth and further partners through a multilateral system is much less,

. and may be negligible. Undue importance should not be attached to these proportions. For one thing they refer only to trade balances, while in some cases invisible payments may be very important. Thell they merely reflect the pattern of exchanges that in fact took place, and bilateral agreements and credit difficulties may themselves already have compelled a high degree of bilateral balance. More multilateral trade might have taken place in other conditions.

The Latin American statistics (in Appendix I) indicate that the general pattern of trade in that continent is not exceptional. In these circum-stancestMultilateral clearing by itself is likely to contrioute to an expansion of trade only as part of a regional payments sche^e in which members are prepared to extend special credits to each other, or can call on an outside source of foreign exchange if it is needed to help countries that are net creditors within the group to convert their surpluses for use elsewhere.WheA considering the possibilities of special arrangements for regional convertibility in any particular case it may be wise to ask whether the proposed members can command sufficient foreign exchange resources which they would be willing to pool, the strong for the benefit

of the weak.

The substitution of multilateral for bilateral payments within a group

•

of countries can also be expected to have a further effect upon trade independently of whether its volume was increased. By allowing any country to spend the proceeds of its exports to other members of the

• group anywhere it chooses within the group, on the one hand the range of choice would be widened and on the other hand competitive pressure would be increased. This would lead to changes in the structure of trade.

In considering the institution of multilateral clearing in a limited region it is important to examine the balance of payments position both of the region as a whole and of each country individually with the outside world. These will lie at the root of problems within the region and determine how they can best be solved. Section II of the present inquiry deals, therefore, first with the general international payments position of Latin American countries and then with the development of trade and payments relations between Latin American countries themselves and between them and Europe. Section III deals with the effects that vPTIous types of payments arrangements between Latin American countries or between Latin American and European countries might be expected to have.

In zgea.lefoi

//.1

II. The Payments Problems of Latin America

1. External_payments position of Latin America

It is important to be clear whether we are talking about the overall position of the twenty Latin American republics taker together or of countries separately. The position of the region as a whole is relevaat if we are considering, for instance, Latin America, Europe, and the United States as three elements in a multilateral payments pattern. If the twenty Latin American republics had a common pool of foreign reserves and used a common currency in payments among themselves, or if their domestic currencies were interconvertible, they could for some purposes be eon, sidered as a unit in international financial relations. But in order to find out whether such an arrangement would work, the international position of each member country has also to be considered separately. In fact, of, the international economic relations and payments problems of the different parts of Latin America show significant differences as well as some similarities.

Prewar pattern of trade and payments

Latin America before the war was an exporter of raw materials and foodstuffs, the products of both tropical and temperate regions. Imports were characteristically textiles and other consumption goods, machinery, transport material, fuel and foodstuffs. The flow of merchandise trade was very uneven, because demand for food and raw materials fluctuated violently according to economic activity in industrial markets abroad. Since payment for imports depended largely on export proceeds, imports also fluctuated widely, and so did the annual export surplus. In 1937 the surplus was equivalent to about $700 million, but in 1938 it had dropped to under 000 million. The export surplus helped to pay for the shipping, insurance and other services which Latin America obtained from Europe and North America, and for returns on past foreign investment and the service of foreign debt, but it was not enough to cover these payments completely. The external accounts were brought into balance by foreign loans and investment, and sometimes through transfers of gold and shortt term foreign assets which it had been possible to accumulate in favorable years. On the whole, in times of prosperity, investment funds and loans were forthcoming, and helped to balance foreign payments. In 1938, how-ever, net investment was inconsiderable, and outward capital movements for amortization payments and purchase of foreign securities seem to have increased the deficit, already between $50 and $100 million on current account, and thus to have made compensatory official financing necessary.

Significant for present problems is the relation of prewar trade and payments to the United States on the one hand and to Europe on the other. With the United States, Latin America generally had a substantial export surplus, even if sales of non-monetary gold were excluded. The year 1938 was an unfavorable one for exports to the United States and the merchan-dise account in that year (all values f.o.b. and including gold) was about even. On service account there was always a big deficit, the largest item being investment income (estimated at $190 million in 1938). Shipping pay-ments were another debit item but were offset Aignificantly by port charges

0 7 6 B

E/CA.12/87

and other Latin American receipts. (payments to U.S. in 193$ estimated at $30 million, and receipts at ,T14 million). Travel expenditure was a net credit item for Latin America in 1938. Capital movements resulted in a net outflow from Latin America, and there was compensatory. .official

financing through declines in gold reserves and short-term dollar assets.

With Europe there was always a trade surplus which in 1938 may have amounted to $200 million (f.o.b.). This was offset to a considerable extent

service payments for shipping and investment income, but in some years some of the proceeds of a net surplus with Europe were undoubtedly con-verted for payments in the United States. In the absence of more detailed and accurate knowledge of the elements of bilateral payments it is not possible to be more precise as to the extent and nature of multilateral

*financing. The persistent and substantial trade surplus with Europe may give a misleading impression of the net—proceeds available for "eonvsrsion, since the trade surplus is so much more obvious and well documented than

• the opposite movements on account of shipping, insurance and other commercial payments, return on public debt and direct investments, amortiza-tion payments, repatriation of debt and purchase of foreign securities. The growth of bilateral balancing between European and Latin American (particularly South American) countries during the thirties must haVe reduced the possibility of multilateral financing. (See Table R, Ap-pendix I.) It may also be misleading to assume that the proceeds of a surplus acquired in one direction in a certain period were used to meet a deficit in another direction in the same period. For instance, in 1938, it appears that Latin American balances under clearing anc' payments agree-ments with Europe may have increased while previously aummulated assets

had to be liquidated to meet the deficit with the United States. 1938 was an abnormal year in that exports to the United States were low and in-vestment negligible. When there was a substantial surplus of merchandise exports and some inward movement of private capital these items may have offset the service payments to such an extent that Latin America as a whole had no deficit with the United States which needed multilateral financing.

Wartime and postwar developments

The late war brought considerable changes in Latin America's inter-national relations. After the early dislocation of commerce with Europe, the United States became overwhelmingly the market and supplier of Latin America, but as North America's needs for materials for the war effort increased and her ability to supply was restricted, the value of Latin American exports to the United Staes tripled between 1940 and 1945, while imports only doubled. The result was a large increase in reserves, gold holdings rose by 62 billion between 1938 and 1945 and dollar balances also grew. Another feature of the war years was the accumulation by the eastern South American countries of blocked sterling balances earned by supplying foodstuffs to the United Kingdom.

When supplies again became available in the United States in 1946, Latin American countries began to make up the shortfall of the war

years and to spend their accumulated reserves, which unfortunately, ow-

ing to the postwar rise in prices, represented less purchasing power than

Assumed to be in Latin American transactions with "other areas". When the global balance of payments is broken down into regions ('{U.S." and "other areas") as above, an item "m11:_tilateral set-tlements" is included to account for the settlement of transac-tions with one region by means of the transfer of claims (in cur-rency or otherwise) on a third region. For fuller explanation of the terms used reference should be made to the Balance of Payments Yearbook of the International Monetary Fund.

141 Excluding intro,-regional trade. 2i

40N.12/87

they would have done if they could have been spent enrrently. A high level of both public and private investment reinforced the pressure to import al-ready resulting from past shortages and an accumulation of liquid resources (private as well as public). Although exports were also at a high level, a heavily adverse trade balance developed in 1947 with the United States, and the freely disposable reserves rapidly dwindled. The accumulations of ster-ling were still in large part frozen,and could not be used to meet the dol-lar deficit. The position in 1947 seems to have been roughly as follows. (Otptng to incomplete information and statistical difficulties, the figures given are necessarily only a rough approximation,)

Table 4. Estimated Balance of Payments of Latin America, 1947

(in millions yf dollars, rounded)

Total (1)

U.S. (2)

Other Areas (3) (1-2)

Trade (net, f.o.b.) 1/ Other current account Total current account (net) Capital transactions (non- comensatory) (net)

Total surplus or deficit requiring financing

Errors and omissions 2/ Multilateral settlements jj...

450 -1,050

-1,450 - 400

1,900 - 650

- 600

400

- 200

-1,850

200

-1,650

711,250

200

1,450

- 250 .. --

-- _550

- 250 - 550

Official compensatory financing Gold __Aii2

900 900 Other - 450 200 - 650

•

An overall trade surplus (excluding transport costs) of between $400-500 million was offset by service payments to give a current account deficit of over $600 million. Direct investment, a net reduction in private short-term assets, and non-compensatory loans received, (less amortization payments) reduced the total deficit to about WO million, Official financing of the deficit involved a net decline in gold reserves of about $900 million and a preponderance of credits extended over loans received of roughly $450 million.

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E/CN.12/87 •

These overall figures obscure the real difficulties experienced by Latin America, which can be made clear only by distinguishing payments with the dollar area from those in mainly inconvertible currencies. The trade deficit (f.o.b. figures) with the United States was about $1,450 million which, added to net service payments made a current account deficit of $1,850 million. Private canitel movements reduced the deficit by $200 million, and official compensatory finanbing, represented by a decline in gold reserves (about $900 million) and dollar balances, and by loans, contributed about $1,100 million. Between $500 million and $600 million was financed from the convertible proceeds of the net surplus with other parts of tae world. The surplus with other parts of the world on current account (including a trade surplus of $1,900 million) and reckon- ing in private capital transactions may nave been about $1,450 million. • If the proceeds of this surplus had been fully convertible they would have helped substantially to fill the $1,650 million gap with the United States and would have made unnecessary such heavy gold sales and other forms of • compensatory financing as actually took place. In fact, however, less than half of the surplus was available in freely expendable resources, and the remainder was financed by the accumulation of foreign currency holdings, the extension of credits, and the repurchase of liabilities. The convert-ibility of even less than half of the surplus was made possible only by en exceptional drain on Europe's reserves, and by the dollar loans and gifts to Europe from the United States.

Position of different tarts of the region

Within this overall picture the position of different parts of Latin America varied significantly, and the differences in their problems are important for any appraisal of the prospects for special payments arrange»

ments.

The twelve most northerly republics, producing tropical foodstuffs (coffee, sugar, bananas) and minerals, had a natural market in the U.S. This direction of their exports was strengthened by extensive United States ownership of sugar and fruit plantations, mining enternrises in Mexico and Venezuela, and selling organizations, banks and utilities. About half the trade of the Caribbean area before the war wa.s with the United States, and considerably more in 1947. The region as a whole had an export surplus

e' with the United States, and an import surplus with the United Kingdom. Service payments to the United States were significant - more than half of the total returns on United States direct investment in Latin America was

$ from the Caribbean countries in 1938. On the other hand, United States expenditure on travel in Latin America was mainly in this area. Trade with Europe was important before the war, about one-quarter of total trade, but by 1947 had decreased to between 5-10 per cent. The problem of unwieldy post war export surpluses to Europe was not very important for this region. Not all the countries in the region had a. dollar problem, and some accumulated gold and dollar balances even in the 1945-1947 period. Chief of these were Cuba (sugar) and Venezuela (oil).

The position of the eight southern republics is substantially dif-ferent, with significant variations within the group. Brazil is in many ways similar to the more northerly countries in that her tropical foodstuffs, coffee, cacao and other products, have had a good market in the United

EAN.12/87

States. Although one—quarter of Brazil's imports came from the United States before the war, Brazil always had a trade surplus. Returns- on U.S. investment were not too heavy a dollar charge — U.S. investment was mainly in utilities and distribution — and Brazil received substantial dollar payments for port charges and other transport expenditure. It is probable that before the war Brazil used net dollars earned in the United States to cover a net deficit with Europe. In 1947 and the early part of 1948, Brazil lost reserves and incurred debts but by the end of 1948 she was recovering her prewar export surplus with the United States as well as overall*

The mineral producing countries of the southwest drew about a third of their imports from the United States but in spite of large American direct investment in mining and smelting, most of their exports, (minerals as well as agricultural) went 'to Europe. The existence of the European export surplus had led to the setting up of clearing agreements between Chile and European countries in the thirties, one object being to secure debt service due from Chile out of the proceeds of the trade surplus. Although during 1947 Chin and Peru were losing gold, their dollar position improved in 1948, in the case of Chile partly owing to ECA expenditure on copper and nitrates. With exports to Europe decreasing in 1948 as com-pared to 1947, and exports to the United States increasing, the position was becoming more stable.

The southeastern temperate countries, exporting mainly animal products (meat, hides, wool), cereals and oilseeds, naturally found their markets in Europe: less than 5 per cent of exports went to the United States before the war, except in times of special economic activity there. British in.. vestment in Argentina. and Uruguay helped to direct trade to the United Kingdom, and returns on investment, with shipping payments, in some years completely offset the trade surplus. In the post war years Argentina and! Uruguay were*both suffering from frozen proceeds of exports to Europe (particularly after the suspension of sterling convertibility) and enlarged imports from the United States, and both lost reserves in 1947.

This necessarily hasty sketch of the externalpayments position of different parts of Latin America. is intended not as an adequate analysis of their problems, but to indicate that no general formulation of payments problems will apply to the region as a whole and no uniform remedy can be discussed, without constant qualifications.

2. Trade and Payments within Latin America

Prewar position and wartime Changes

Intra—Latin American trade formed only a. small proportion (perhaps between 5 and 10 per cent) of the total trade of Latin American countries before the war. In 1938 trade between the twenty Latin American republics was valued at about $115 million, of which nearly three—quarters involved Argentina. Argentina's trade with Brazil was responsible for nearly half the total. The southern Latin American countries had a much higher propor-tion of trade within Latin America to total trade than northern countries. (See Table 5.) Peru especially sent a, high proPortion (15-20 per cent in 1937-1938) of exports to other Latin American countries while Bolivia took

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nearly one-third of all imports from them. Northern Latin American countries (including Venezuela and Colombia) carried on less than 5 per cent of their total trade with each other. Except for Peru and Ecuador intra-Latin American trade,leas more important for individual countries on the importing than the exporting side - because total exports were larger than total imports.

The reasons for this pattern are clear from the nature of production and trade of the various countries. Of the most important categories of Latin American imnorts the only one that could be supplied substantially from with-in the area was food. By far the largest part of intra-Latin American trade as a whole was in food. Exports, however, were often directly competitive and in any case there was a limit to the amount of their neighbors coffee, cocoa, grain, etc., that Latin American countries could absor4. Nearly all foodstuffs produced as cash crops had to find markets outside the area. Mar-ketc for minerals such as copper, tin, gold and even petroleum require some industrialization. Manufactured goods which formed the bulk of every countryls imports were produced only to a wall extent within the area.

Before the war the most important foodstuffs exchanged within Latin America were wheat and meat from Argentina, coffee, rice and cacao from Brazil, sugar from Peru, fruit and vegetables from Chile, coffee and bananas from Ecuador, There was also a certain amount of local trade in livestock, sugar, rice, vegetable?, etc., between the Central American republics. Petroleum was the most important mineral traded, and accounted for the export sureluses (within the region) of Peru and Ecuador.- Timber was exported from Brazil.

The late war brought a great increase in trade within Latin America, and its value rose to $350 million in 1943 and over $500 million in 1945. The rise in value is exaggerated by the fact that goods traded within Latin America during the war, particularly food and textiles, were among those experiencing the greatest rise in prices in general, and there is evidence that higher prices were often obtained within the region than outside for similar products. Nevertheless there was a substantial increase in volume, and a eoeefeve elich as Mexico which before the war had sent less than 5 per cent of her exports to other-Latin American countries was in 1945 sending over 15 per cent (cotton textiles and other consumer goods), Supplies which were unobtainable from ,overseas were sought within the area Argentina turned to Brazil instead of Europe for cotton textiles and coal and to Ecuador instead of the Far East for rubber and -rioe Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Uruguay and other countries increased manufactures of consumer goods to replace lost sources of sureely and in many cases also for export. Markets had to be found to replace European ones, and Chile, for instance, increased her exports of vegetables and coarse grains to neighboring countries. Ferule petroleum and sugar be-came more important and in 1945 Peru was sending one-half of her exports to other Latin American countries as compared to 15 per Gent in 1937.

After the war

Intra-Latin American trade was still at a high leael in 1946 and 1947 but the pro-Portion to total trade hat; declined, Some of the new developments persisted; partieuarly where rew industries had grown up or old ones ex-panded, as in textiees, iron and steel in Brazil and various light manufac-tures in Argentina and Uruguay, trade channels had permateetly shifted. But in many cases the wartime changes had been forced and unecolesical, and as soon as possible Latin American countries tried to reestablish traditional overseas markets and sources of supply. In 1947 the eroeortion of intra-

E/CN.12/87

Latin American to total trade, at about 10 Per cent both ways, was still

high than before the war.

In most ways the pattern of intra-regional trade in 1947 was similar to that before the war. Argentina still accounted for 60 per cent of the total, and trade between Argentina and Brazil was the biggest individual factor, though both proportions had decreased. A significant change was that Brazil, which in the thirties had been a net debtor in Latin American

trade, with a debit balance with Argentina, had acquired a surplus early in the war and by 1947 was Latin America's largest net creditor. This was largely due to exports of cotton textiles, timber and coffee to Argentina, resulting in a credit balance of over $30 million. Brazil's other exaort movements (textiles, timber and sugar to Uruguay and coffee and textiles to Chile) were less important. Argentina still had a net credit balance (of $20 million) and surpluses with all important countries except Brazil, Her extorts of wheat and wool to Brazil, of cattle, wheat and vegetable oils to Chile, of wheat, livestock and seeds to Uruguay, and of wheat to Peru were the most important trade movements. Peru's exnorts to Chile of sugar, Petroleum and cotton and to Uruguay of Petroleum were the biggest factor in her net creditor nosition of over $20 million. Chile, whose total imports from other Latin American countries were second only to Argentina, was a big net debtor, and her biggest debits were with Argen- tina and Peru to both of whom she exported copper and nitrates. Chile had been a net debtor to the group also in the thirties, but not to such an extent. Uraguay, which also had been a net debtor in the thirties, had the highest debit balance ($50 million) in 1947, having a debit balance with every important trader except Cuba. Cuba was a small all-round debtor, and. Mexico a small all-round creditor, the positions of both being similar to

those in earlier years.

Payments within Latin America

Payments between Latin !,merican countries have usually been made in dollars, except where special arrangements were in force. When the large gold and dollar reserves of the war period began to decline, some payments relations got into difficulties, and bilateral agreements began to be made. Argentina was the center of this activity. The problem here was in two parts. With Brazil, Argentina was in 1946 and 1947 a debtor and was un-

- willing or unable to pay in dollars. With each of her other partners Argen- tina was a creditor and they were unwilling or unable to pay in dollars. Agreements made were of various sorts: payments agreements were negotiated with

aajdr-gai,111192_Uruguay and Paraguay; compensation arrangements were

2cit2tcrl,Colombia and Costa Rica. made With Peru, Venezuela

Relations with Brazil had been governess ty-rz-agreement made in 1941 by which accounts were kept in dollars, with a reciprocal crit Of $2.5 million. Credit balances were to be used for purchases from the debtor. At the request of Brazil, Argentina in 1947 paid off in dollars and sterling

a

debit balance of $43 million. Brazil went on accumulating a surrlus and in 1948 terminated the agreement and henceforth payments were to be theol

ade'id n

dollars. This was unsatisfactory and after briefly returning to t agreement a new one was made at the end of 1948. The account in future was

to be carried in cruzeiros, a credit ceiling of $35 million was established

and balances above a certain limit were to pay interest. Payments other

E/ON.12/87

then trade could only be carried on the account by special agreement. Final balances were to be liquidated over a period in gold, convertible exchange, or any currency acceptable to the creditor. Efforts to balance trade ac-companied these negotiations and in the first ten months of 1948, owing to big exports of wheat and import restrictions, Argentina had reduced, but not transformed her abnormal debtor position.

Agreements with Chile, Bolivia, Uruguay and Paraguay had to provide for a continuance of trade with a persistent debt to Argentina. Argentina was accustomed to export more to Chile (cattle, vegetable oils, wheat) than she imeorted (copper, nitrates). At the end of 1946 an agreement was negotiated providing for short-term credits from Argentina to Chile and loo

loans for public works and joint develoement of industrial production. The agreement was never ratified but Argentina advanced funds to Chile to finance a continuing debit balance. In 1948 this situation caused difficul-ties which were temporarily resolved by an agreement for repayment of a part of the debt and nostnonement of settlement of the remainder. Owing mainly to a decrease of Argentine exports, the trade gap had narrowed in the first • half of 1948, and by the end of 1948 Chile's debt had been reduced. Agree-ments with Bolivia followed somewhat the same lines. Provision was made for the exchange of certain goods (wheat, livestock, etc., from Argentina, tin, lead and other mineral products from -.6olivia). Accounts were to be kept in the two currencies, an interest-bearing credit was to be granted in Argentine resos to finance Boliviats unforeble balance and the final set-tlement was to be in Argentine pesos, gold or free exchange. Long-term loans were to be used in Bolivia for public works and industrial development on a joint basis. Difficulties arose, partly because provision had been made for special dollar payments for Bolivian tin, and in 1948 modifica-tions were mace by which Bolivia could in some cases use Argentine pesos for purchases in other countries if supplies in Argentina were too expensive. In the first half of 1948 Argentinats export surplus was diminishing, al-though imports from Bolivia appear to have been small. Argentinats agree-ment with Uruguay concluded in 1948 provided for all payments to be made in Argentine mesas with a reciprocal interest bearing credit to be cancelled in gold or free exchange at the end of each year. In 1947, Argentina was exporting to Uruguay wheat, seeds, fodder and textile and other industrial machinery at a higher rate than she was importing from Uruguay textiles and other light manufactures. The agreement aimed at more balance in the trade, and this was apparently being achieved in 1948, mainly by reduction of Ar-gentina's exports. An interesting feature of Argentinats agreement with Paraguay was that Paraguay could use sterling for Quarterly settlements of a debit balance. Final repayment of credits outstanding at the end of the agreement was to be in Argentine pesos. Owing to =S"

-tEgiiible investment in Paraguay (in the meat and 5uebracho industries, textiles and banking) invisible payments 1;6itant. Trade figures are misleading, because much of_;ai.ag;tire exports to Argentina are in transit, but Argen-tina in fact has a surplus on trade account.

Compensation agreements have been concluded by Argentina with Venezuela, Peru and Costa Rica. Argentina had a big debit balance with Venezuela owing to purchases of petroleum, for which she had to pay dollars. Under the agreement meat was to be traded for petroleum, and to this extent dollars were saved, but the first half of 1948 showed still a big Venezuelan surplus.

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Argentina's need for petroleum also seems to have been a factor in the agreement with Peru made in August 1948. Peru has generally had a debit balance with Argentina, owing to her dependence on Argentine wheat. Delivery of a specified qaantity of petroleum by Peru beginning in 194) is to offset the sales of wheat.

As has been seen, Brazil developed a strong creditor position towards the rest of Latin America during and after the war as a result of her in-creased production and sales of cotton textiles. To strengthen this trade, agreements were made with Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Uruguay and Paraaaay for the supply of specified quantities of textiles on advantageous tern. Besides the arrangements with Argentina already mentioned Brazil concladea special payments agreements with Chile and Paraguay. With Chile Braall had had a clearing system of payments for many years. A new agreement of 1)47 confirmed and enlarged economic relations. Trade is substantial between the two countries; the new agreement provided particularly for the exchange of coffee and yerba mate for nitrates and copper. The account was carriea in

• Chilean aesos: the accumulation of Chilean pesos owing to Chile's continuing debtor position caused difficulties. In 1948 provision was made for the gradual repayment in dollars-of part of the debit balance. A credit limit was introduced and balances beyond this were to be settled in dollars. With Paraguay Brazil is habitually a small creditor on account of both trade and long-term lending. Payments between the two countries are made through a cruzeiro account. Paraguay had resumed her old uractice of set-tling balances in sterling, but in 1948 Brazil became unwilling to accept

sterling.

It could hardly be said in 1948 that lack of means of aayment had seriously blocked intra-Latin American trade since the war. The two important creditors, Argentina and Brazil, had both extended credits to their principal debtors. Bilaterale agreements had run into difficulties as always when one partner tends to a persistent credit position, (as Argentina did with all her rartaars except Brazil, and Brazil did with Chile) but ways had been found to continue exchanges at a high level without forcing strict bilateral balance. Trade between Argentina and Brazil and between Brazil and Chile, two points of strain in bilateral agreements, was running in the first six months of 1948 at almost the level of 1947, though it may have fallen cff later in the year. Trade between Argentina and Chile did fall off in the early part of 1948, but not mainly for payments reasons. In many cases also, where exchanges did not take place "because of tayments difficulties", the underlying cause is found to be the high prices asked for expert goods. The methods of payment adopted effected some saving of dol3ars for working bal-ances. As has been suggested, the insistence, which increased during the post war years, on dollar settlement of persistent debits was due to the general balance of payments position of Latin American countries. Whether this general aosition might be improved by an increase of mutual trade will be briefly touched on next while the question of how bilateral debits might have been affected by the multilateral clearing of balances will be dealt

with in Section IV.

Future possibilities

In discussions of intra-Euraoean trade it is sometimes suggested that regional supplies might be developed of goods formerly imported from dollar

,17.72/87

sources, thus benefiting the balance of payments with the Western Hemisnhere. In Latin America. the possibilities of this are much more restrictied, though by no means non-existent. Some substitution is already occurring. In the first half of 1948, imports of rice, wheat and flour from the United States showed marked reductions over 1947. To a certain extent this was a return to earlier practices from wartime or post war diversions. Brazil, for instance, in 1948 had gone back for wheat to Argentina, the traditional source. Theoretically there should be some possibilities of Caribbean countries getting a larger proportion of their wheat from say Argentina and of rice from Brazil and Ecuador. Other categories of goods imported from the United States that showed a decline more than proportional to the total decline in 1948 were textiles, iron and.7.titel sill products and rubber tires. All these are Produced to a certain extent within Latin America and in time might be able to substitute for North American goods. Before recommending any such development, however, the whole position would have to be much more carefully examined. If a substitution of home produced for imported dollar goods is not a result of satisfactory cost and price relations but is forced through for other reasons, it may result in a very uneconomical use of scarce resources. This could, from a purely economic point of view, only,be justified if Latin American countries were to be permanently and grievously short of dollars with no prospect of in-creasing dollar earnings, using them more efficiently, or getting similar supplies elsewhere.

In any case, it would be some time before any development on these line:i:could seriously affect the overall balance of payments, while the proposal under discussion is for "a transitional measure". It seems un-likely, from the nature and capacity of productive resources in Latin Amer-ican countries on the one hand, and their needs on the other, that mutual exchanges could be substantially increased over a short period. As already indicated, the problem is different for different narts of Latin America.

:3, Relations with Europe

Trade and financial ties have always been strong between Latin American and European, particularly western European countries. At the time when Latin American republics, having gained their indenendence, were nromising finids for investment, western Eurorean countries and particularly Britain were looking for outlets for capital, and supplies of food and raw materials which they could exchange for the products of their industry. Commercial relations developed an this basis, and up to the last war, a substantial trade was carried on. 1111 sorts of manufactures came from Europe, textiles (and coal) principally from Britain, machinery and metal products from Britain and continental Europe as well. In return Latin American countries sent their own products. Most of the animal and vegetable products of the east coast countries went to Europe --- meat particularly to Britain, linseed and hides to continental Europe, cereals to both. A large nart of the minerals of the west coast and Bolivia went to Europe, and a lesser pro-portion of the minerals and tropical foods of the Caribbean republics and Mexico. Between the two wars Europe (apart from Germany) was declining in importance as a supplier of Latin America. This was particularly true of Britain whose staple exports for consumption were among the first to be

•

7 77

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replaced by home manufactures. The competition of the United. States and Japan were other big factors. Germany's trade drive, to Latin American countries after the middle thirties kept up the position of Europe as a whole and made the trend less apparent.

Britain was paying for an increasing erorortion of her imrorts from the income on investment (estimated at. $160 million in 1931 and $80 million in 1939). Total British investment in Latin America was estimated at over $4 billion in 1939. French and German investment accounted for over, one quarter of total foreign investment before the first war, but had greetly declined. Belgian investment was also significant. Shipping was the other big source of income to western European countries, particularly to Britain, Norway and the Netherlands, and may have netted $100 million in favorable

years.

The war disrupted all these relations. Imports into Latin America from Europe which in 1938 were still 47 per cent of total imports (Table 5) were only 12 per cent in 1946. Shipping was destroyed and diverted, and European investments were sold to pay for supplies. British investments were estimated to have declined by $1 billion dollars between 1939 and 1946. (Britain's income from investment had actually increased at the end of the war on account of the rise in yield.)

Post war position

In 1946 Latin American countries as a whole were getting only 12 per cent of their total imports from Europe as compared to nearly half before the war, while imports from the United States had increased from one third of total imports to nearly 60 per cent. Exports to Europe had decreased from about one half to one quarter of total exports. The next two years saw Latin American and European countries trying to re-establish commercial relations in ways to fit changed conditions. During this time more than 40 bilateral agreements, regulating trade and. Payments were made between Latin American and European countries. The need for reestablishing workable exchanges was most acute for southern Latin America. Although the proportionate decline in

imports from Europe was less for southern than northern Latin America, the abso.

• lute importance was greater because of former dependence on Europe,. Dependence on United States imports had increased proportionately more for southern than for northern Latin America, and though the United States had also in-creased in importance as a market for southern Latin America's exports, that Market was Still much less important for southern than for northern Latin

• America. It is, therefor not surprising that of the 40 agreements with

Europe mentioned, over 30 were made by southern countries and of these 15

by Argentina.

The first negotiations between Latin American and European countries dealt with specific wartime measures, such as the unblocking of assets of nationals of ex-enemy or occupied countries. Then in 1945 and 1946 came the first crop of trade and payments agreements made by eastern South American countries. Brazil was the most active negotiator, concluding 6 agreements with Belgium, Czechoslovakia, Denmark, Finland, France and the United Kingdom; Argentina had agreements with Belgium, Spain and the United Kingdom; Uruguay' with Belgium and France. (Appendix Ii)

q

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Most of these agreements followed very much the same lines, dictated by the circumstances of the time. Latin American countries as already noted, were anxious to obtain the traditional supplies of consumer, and particularly capital goods of which they had been deprived for nearly six Tears. European countries were badly in need of food and raw materials but were not 7et able, owing to wartime destruction and dislocation, to supply more than a trickle of goods in exchange. None of them could allow their currencies to be exchanged for gold or dollars, and although some European countries had considerable amounts of gold and dollars, most of these were needed for payments to the United States. The agreements, therefore, as well as in many cases specifying agreed lists of available goods, arranx:ed for payments to be made through accounts kept in one or both of the partner's' currencies at one or both of the Central Banks: in all cases in 1946 (pith the exception of Spain and Argentina) the currency chosen was the European partners'. In most cases the exchange rate provided for was some average of cross rates on the dollar and provision was made to adjust balances in case of a change in rates. Short-term credits were a universal feature of these agreements. In many cases these credits were extended only to the European country, providing for the Latin American countries accumulating its currency up to an agreed limit. In some cases there was provision for reciprocal credits, often of lesser amount, to the Latin American partner. Often interest was to be paid, of anything up to 4 per cent, on balances held, sometimes of balances held above a certain limit. In nearly all the agreements with continental Europe in 1945 and 1946 balances above the credit limit had to be settled, in some agreed time, in gold or dollars. In a few cases there was provision for other forms of settlement as well, or as an alternative. Agreements between Argentina and France (1945) and Brazil and Denmark (1946) allowed balances to be settled in the debtor's goods, or in the latter case, in sterling. Argentina's settlement with Spain was to be in Argentine pesos or balances were to be converted into long-term obligations.

In 1947 Argentina was the most active negotiator, concluding seven new agreements and a further one with the United Kingdom. Brazil made only one (also with the United Kingdom) and Uruguay five. Mexico made agreements with Spain and Czechoslovakia. The 1947 agreements followed much the same lines, still strictly bilateral with accounts kept in the European currency except where this was of doubtful stability. Argentina's payments with Finland and Rumania were conducted in dollars, with unilateral credits for the European countries. As other currencies besides the dollar emerged as relatively "hard", a new provision began to appear by which eventual balances could be settled in gold, dollars, or an acceptable third currency.

Sterlingpgreewnta

Agreements between the United Kingdom and her chief trading partners in Latin America were frequent in 1946, 1947 and 1948, their te.milia varying with the changing circumstances affecting the status of sterling as an international currency. During the war sterling tansactions with all Central American republics and Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador were made through the "Central American Account" system, in which sterling was trans-ferable within the sterling area and between other Central American Account

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7 7

countries. After 1945 this system was incorporated into the "American Account" system, and its sterling was convertible into dollars. Chile and Pcru had entered the American Account area in 1947 and trade between them and the Lnited Kingdom had languished because their exports were equivalent to dollar exports. In 1948, therefore, new agreements were made with Chile and Peru. Chile was able to transfer her sterling freely only to other Transferable Account countries and the sterling area. For transfers to other countries previous agreement of the British authorities was required. In the case of Peru all transfers to countries outside the sterling area required agreement between the two governments. Trade increased under the new arrangements, but Peru accumulated sterling. Dollars continued to be paid to Chile for copper and nitrates.

Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay were in a different position. Exports to the United Kingdom during the war had resulted in frozen sterling balances amounting to over $500 million in 1945. Unlike Chile and Peru these three countries were running big export surpluses with the United Kingdom and sterling balances continued to accumulate, reaching over ';;800 million in 1947. Agreements made with the United Kingdom had to deal with both the disposal of frozen sterling and the mechanism of current payments. With Argentina in 1946 and with Brazil and Uruguay in 1947 agreement was reached in principle that part or all of the frozen sterling might be used to repatriate sterling debt and purchase British owned utilities, while small instalments were to be freed periodically for current payments. Arrangements for payments for current transactions varied. Argentina's current sterling, made convertible at the end of 1946 until the general suspension of sterling convertibility in August 1947 was "transferable" until 1948 when the Andes agreement instituted a bilateral account. Brazil and Uruguay became part of the transferable account system in 1946 and 1947 respectively, but their sterling loet automatic transferability

in 1948.

Position iliJ52Ag and after

In many ways the end of 1947 marked the end of one phase in Latin America's post war relations with Europe. The peak of trade surpluses and credits extended was reached with an export surplus of approximately $1,100 million and credits extended (including accumulation of foreign balances under payments agreements) of perhaps $500 million.

The effects of these unbalanced relations were felt in 1948 when many of the trade and payments agreements ran into difficulties, because credits granted had been fully used. In some cases fresh credits were extended. Argentina, for instance, obtaining machinery and equipment for her develop-ment plans from Czechoslovakia, raised the credit ceiling and made the obligation to settle balances annually in goods instead of dollars. In the case of Spain, whose credit granted by Argentina in 1946 had been fully used, further credits were extended, and final balances ?ere to be used by Argentina for investment in Spain, including the settingup of a free port at Cadiz. In other cases (Brazil with Czechoslovakia and France) credit conditions were tightened and provision was made to use the accumulated balances immediately (instead of carrying them forward) for purchases of

EAN.12/87

petroleum refineries. In the case of Denmark, Brazil required balances to be paid partly in dollars. At one point exports from Argentina to Switzer-land were stopped because Argentina wished Switzerland to liquidate her debit balance. In most cases where European debits had accumulated to an uncomfortable extent and means were sought to liquidate them, there was also an effort to bring about a better future balance in trade and payments. It was becoming easier to do this by expanding rather than contracting trade because 'Europe's ability to supply Latin America with needed goods was increasing. As many Latin American countries were painfully short of dollar exchange they became more inclined to import from Europe, even if what was offered was less desirable or more expensiv,J than North American goods. Argentina particularly explored every possibility for satisfying her import needs from European sources. Agreements were made with Eastern European countries in 1948 (Hungary, Poland and Yugoslavia) which provided fot sub-stantial balanced exchanges of goods on a compensation basis, though any necessary payments might be in dollars. From Poland and Yugoslavia, Argentina proposed to obtain coal, cement, chemicals and timber and from Hungary machinery and transport material. Much of this represented new trade channels.

The problem of financing a surplus with Europe was easier in 1948 than in 1947. For one thing the trade deficit of Europe was smaller. In 1948 (Tables U and v) exports from Latin America were 2 billion as com-pared to 2.1 billion in 1947 and imports $1.3 billion as compared to $1 billion. in 1947. $350 million had been appropriated by the ECA for off- shore purchases in Latin America, although only about half of this had actually been spent. By far the largest factor in financing the deficit was the repurchase of British railways and other utilities and public debt. This amounted to somewhere about $680 million and was reflected in a reduc-tion of balances and a noticeable hardening of sterling. These big capital movements between Britain and Argentina largely determine the appearance of the overall finanting of Latin American payments with Europe, as they ob-scure other movements. If sterling is removed from the picture, balances held under payments agreements with other European countries show an increase during 1948 of over $50 million, representing net credits extended. This is a marked decline from the amount of credit extended in 1947. In many individual cases the net movement was a repayment of credit by Euro-pean countries. In the case of Belgium and Argentina, Belgium's debit balance turned in 1948 to a rather obstinate credit, which at one time held up further exports from Belgium.

From a brief survey of payments arrangements since the war which in 1948 covered roughly 75 per cent of total trade with Europe, it seems fair to conclude that the bilateral payments agreements served their purpose pretty well. They enabled trade with Europe to be resumed and owing to the credits extendadby Latin America the acute phase of Europe's low pro-ductivity was tided over. In only a.few cases, which have been mentioned, did lines of real strain, such as were common in Europe, appear, and even then some way round was discovered to allow trade to continue. Neverthe-less, the strictly bilateral payments covering so much of the commerce between the two continents was far from an ideal system, and in Section IV the possibilities of multilateral arrangements will be considered.

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The desire for dollar payments which was always a potential brake on

trade relations between Europe and Latin America in the post war period (though partially by-passed in payments agreements and the use of sterling) was due to the overall balance of payments disequilibrium of both Europe and Latin America. As regards Latin America, it is hard to avoid the con-clusion that the overall disequilibrium particularly of South American

countries would ,benefit from a more balanced trade with Europe. The large

export surplus with Europe in 1947 and the lesser one in 1948 were admit-

tedly financed by temporary expedients. In 1947 some European countries

still had fairly large reserves and the United States was giving dollar loans. Latin American countries still had good reserves from wartime export surpluses and were able to extend credits. The selling-out

of

EurOpean investment was a big help to financing in 1947 and even more in

.1948. In 1948 there were EGA dollars. It cannot be taken for granted that the relatively favorable conditions of 1947 and 1948 will persist and it is probable that some means of adjustment to the new situation between Europe and Latin America will have to be found. One of the more promising paths is the expansion of European exports to Latin kL.eriea.

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IiI. Possibilities of_Comrensation amonc Latin

1. General

In 1948 perhaps one-half of trade within Latin America and three-quarters or more of trade of all Latin American countries with .11rope was' being conducted under some form of bilateral agreement. This did not mean rigid bilateral financing over the whole field: sterling for instance was available for use in the sterling area and in varying degrees in other transferable account countries. .There the limit of credit provided for working balances had been reached, partners might have reverted to dollar and gold payments. But on the whole, trade under payments agreements was bilaterally financed and agreements for miniedzing payments by planning equal exchanges were a limiting factor on trade. This is the situation that inspires proposals for making currencies to some degree interchange-able, so that surpluses acquired with one country can be used elsewhere.

There are various methods by which the transferability of currencies for current account Purposes and the pooling of credits can be arranged through a special clearing system. There can be a central clearing office, where the net position of each member is registered, or members can acquire in exchange for their own currencies up to a given amount units of an inter-national currency which is accepted to an unlimited degree for transactions within the group. .!here there already exists an extensive system of bi-lateral payments agreements, the bilateral credits already granted or new ones can be made available anywhere in the group, and the balances under the agreements at Central Banks can be subject to Periodic compensation operations. All types of integral compensation involve the possible concentration on one strong currency of all the credits allowed to each member. The total amount of these credits may exceed the claim on its resources that the strong currency's owner is prepared to put at the disposal of the group. In the mechanism of the IMF, where many countries contribute their own currencies to a central fund to be drawn on by other members, and the holdings of currency are supplemented by holdings of gold, the claims on any one currency are likely to be less difficult to meet.

A limited compensation can sometimes be arranged involving only the reduction of debit balances, or the use of one country's currency in settling accounts, where three or more countries have payments to make to each other in a closed circuit. This is similar to the "first category" type of compensation in the European Payments Agreement.

• In what follows, the expression "a closed system" has been used to

mean a system in which the means of payment can be used only within the group. A clearing system may also provide for the conversion of net balances into dollars or some other currency that can be used outside the group. It has not been considered useful anyhow at this stage to consider in detail the practical anplication of a comprehensive clearing union. The present section deals with some possibilities of triangular

American Currencies and with Europe

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offsets, the operation of which would be comparatively simple and most of the immediate consequences 'of which could be foreseen. It also tries to draw some general conclusions as to the effects that might be expected from complete or partial convertibility within either of the two groups under discussion, with or without convertibility into dollars.

The difficulty here is to collect the information on which to base even general conclusions. If, as in Europe, current bilateral transactions were nearly all conducted under payments agreements, and the balances of these agreements were available periodically in non-confidential form, it would not be too difficult to indicate the effects of a clearing of balances.

'In the absence of essential information on payments of this kind, figures of annual trade balances between pairs of countries have been uses as giving some sort of a rough approximation to the position. These figures

,fail to represent the true position in significant ways. A uniform basis has been sought by using only export figures. This means, for instance, that in the case of European and Latin American trade both European and Latin American reports have been used. There will clearly be great dis-crepancies of timing, as well as in valuation, conversion rates, different usages as to countries of origin and destination, and so forth. In some cases export figures were not available, and the appropriate import figure, less a deduction for freight, was used. Apart from the unsatisfactory nature of trade reports themselves, this method neglects service payments entirely. This is serious mainly for relations with Europe, which may involve substantial payments for transport and investment income; in some accounts with the United Kingdom invisible payments may entirely alter the picture. Another difficulty arises when tradebalances a wheree transactions

have been carried on for the whole period under review below the credit limit of a payments agreement, the trade balances do not indicate the amount of purely bilateral financing that in fact took place. In all cases, all or some of the payments were made in dollars, gold, or partially transferable currency, and were therefore "cleared" multi-laterally. The effects of complete multilateral clearing, if traced from the starting point of these figures, would therefore be exaggerated. :lith all these limitations it has nevertheless been thought worthwhile to

present the trade balances between the various countries ies for 1938, 1947,

and the first six months of 1948 and to try to draw general conclu-

sions from them.

2. Compensations within Latin America

Tables A to F show trade and trade balances betdeen Latin American countries for 1938, 1947 and the first six months of 1948

. For 1938 and

1947 figures are given for all twenty republics, although in some cases the export figure Jdas not available and the importing country's report, less a standard deduction for freight, was used. For January-June 1948 it was not possible to tabulate all countries, even on this basis, and fourteen countries only are shown. Trade figures, owing to varying practices in valuation and reporting and other difficulties, show great

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discrepancies, and the error in a small figure may sometimes be so great as to change a positive balance to a negative one For this, among other reasons, the figures shown for illustrative purposes should be treated with great reserve. Because the proportionate error is greater the'smaller the figure, trade values have been rounded to the nearest q00 thousand. This involves the disappearance of many of the smaller positions, but was held to be unavoidable. Most of the smaller countries are together in the north, and do a considerable amount of trade with each other. This trade, though it does not show up significantly in total intra-Tatin-American trade, is of considerable importance to the countries involved, and it would have been useful to devote a table solely to this trade, rounding to a smaller figure. However, the shortage in the area made this procedure look unprofitable, atof

leasttrade

untilstatis

moretics

information can be obtained.

Bilateral balance and surpluses

According to tables G, H and J, the average degree of balance or unbalance in intra-Tatin-American trade varied little between 1938, 1947 and 1948. The proportion of total trade bilaterally balanced was just over half, 15 per cent to 20 percent was multilaterally compensable, and 25 per cent to 30 per cent was net surplus for the country reporting. This averare conceals considerable variations in the position of individual countries. Brazil and Argentina increased their respective proportions of bilaterally balanced trade to among the highest of the group in 1947 and 1948. Cuba, El Salvador and ?er!' were among those offsetting most sur-pluses and deficits within the group throughout the period, while Bolivia had one of the highest degrees of net import surplus. Uruguay changed from a high degree of offset and a small net imnort surplus in 1938 to a high net import surplus in 1947. This was apparently exceptional, and the import surplus had fallen again in 1948. Colombia very Materially increased her proportion of import surplus during the period, while Mexico decreased her Proportion of multilateral trade and increased her export surplus.

Closed regional clearim

The countries that would presumably benefit most from a closed system of transferability would be those with a high Proportion of surpluses and deficits that offset each other, and a low net surplus. In the first six months of 1948 Peril answers best to this description; her marked export surplus of 1947 was diminishing (possibly diminishing petroleum exports to Uruguay), and in 1948 the rather difficult debtor position with Argentina could theoretically have been more than offset by the credit position with Chile. Cuba and Guatemala, also with a high degree of multilaterally copensable trade had marked import surplus Positions. In a closed clearing system, instead of being debtors of Mexico, they .could have been debtors to the group as a whole. If countries in a net creditor position were unwilling to extend credit, Cuba and Guatemala, after losing their inter-group reserves might have had to adjust to a more balanced payments position.

0

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The discussion of these possibilities is, of course, rather acamic, because in early 1948 Cuba and Guatemala had adequate dollars, aaigh may have been partly ahy their trade gas multilateral.

The three Countries dith the highest degree of import surplus in early 1948 -- the Dominican Republic, Bolivia and Colombia -- aould have had much the same experience as Cuba and Guatemala, except that as all their balances were negative, they could have taken. part in no compensa-

tions at all.

The general effect on individual countries would be largely independent of what particular clearing mechanism as adopted. This might be a ney; clearing unit, acceptable for all transactions within the group. If, initially, credits 'dere to be allotted on the basis of net import balances in the first six months of 1948, the total size of the union .could. be 68

• million (see Table 1'). This means that every country kith a net deficit would be alloaed to drag units of the group currency, each according to

its quota, to a total of 068 million, to be received in payment by other

members for use anywhere in the group. If these credits had been allocated at the beginning of 1948 and had been fully used at the end of June, they might conceivably all have been used in payments to argentine, or to iexico. This is not perhaps very likely, but it is possible, since both countries ,'ere substantial all-round creditors even ahen payments sere on a scarce dollar basis or payments agreements had run into difficulties. Thus in June Argentina pr Mexico might have been net creditors to the group of

.368 million, instead of '27 million and 010 million respectively. Jays

can be devised for limiting the liability of potential large net ex-porters, but only by rationing the use of the credit medium in payments to countries which are becoming too attractive as exporters.

It does not appear, however, from the rather fragmentary evidence presented, that any currency dculd have become particularly "scarce." In 1947, dhen Brazil as a large ell-round creditor, the cruzelro would probably have been a hard currency. Before.: the war Brazil was a net debtor in intra-Latin-american trade. She may not return to this position, but at least trade .Jas becoming more balanced in 1948, although this das

. largely due to the big decrease in surplus with Argentina. The argentinee

peso might be most likely to become hard, along perhaps aith the peso in northern Tatin America. On the whole the problem of "scarce currencies" does not seem one that could trouble intra-Latin-American convertibility very much. It has been shown, however, that one or twi

o

currencies (perhaps Bolivia and Colombia) might be rather aeak, wittments hn

the group. The position could be met by balance of payments adjus or credits from other members. Mechanical difficulties might arise if the clearing took the form of a central fund into ahich members paid their oan currencies and bought others. The lack of demand for certain curren-

cies ,could cumber the aorking of such a system.

The main basis for success in a clearing union of this type is the willingness of surplus countries to extend credits to their neighbors,

E/bN.12/87

who though not necessarily in over-all balance of payments difficulties, are in a net debtor position within the group.

Reg opal clearing backed by dollars

If net credits were convertible into dollars, net debtor countries, if they had to use their own limited reserves, might try to reduce their import surpluses from the group. In the first half of

1948 such all-round net debtors as Colombia and Bolivia would have had to use scLrce dollars to meet their net debits, which would not even have been reduced by compensation. Net

debtors with some credit positions, such as Chile, Cuba and Uruguay (in 1948) might have saved some dollars on working balances, even if they had to cover net deficits in dollars. Net

creditors, if they were able to get dollars, might try to increase their surpluses, either by restricting imports or expanding exports; particularly if, like Argentina, they were in great need of dollars to meet a deficit with the United States.

If dollar convertibility for net positions was provided through pooled hard currency resources instead of individual reserves, the burden would not fall necessarily on debtor countries themselves, but on those whose dollar earnings contributed mainly to the pool. In early

1948 this might have been Venezuela, Panama) Cuba, the Dominican Republic and some other northern countries. Contributions of hard currency from outside the group would remove some of the strains but also the stimulus to adjustments (mainly by creditors if credits were frozen, by debtors under dollar convertibility), which would bring some sort of balance.

Triangular compensations

It may be that some bilaterally strained positions could be eased by individual compensations involving three or more countries in a closed circle of indebtedness.

In early 1948 some of Argentina's credit Positions could theoretically have been compensated. The surplus with Peril could have been compensated through Venezuela, a debtor to Peril and a creditor of Argentina. In theory, and on the basis of the trade balances for January-June

1948, .which, as already explained, may give a misleading imnression, Argentina might have Paid Part of her debt to Venezuela in pesos to be used by Venezuela in payment to Peru and by Peril for part payment to Argentina. Among other drawbacks here would be that Venezuela's debt to Peril

was so small ($300,000) compared to Peril's debt to Argentina (14 million) and Argentina's debt to Venezuela ($10 million). Then Peril might have been unwilling to accept pesos instead of dollars from Venezuela.

Argentina's debt to Venezuela (which also was a point of stress and led to the compensation agreement already descr4 'Jed) could also theoretically have been compensated in part through In this case an amount of 8400,000 (Brazil's credit with Venezuela) could have been offset, ,piping

4

E/CN.12/b7

out the debt between Brazil and Venezuela and reducing that between Venezuela and Argentina (?10 million) and between Argentina and Brazil

(c) million) by the same amount. Here again the reluctance of any country

short of dollars to cancel a debt payable in dollars has to be reckoned with. Another point is that the credit position of Argentina with Brazil was temnorary (due to wheat deliveries) and might be expected to be re--versed. In 1947 Brazil had been Argentina's large creditor and this position was developing again later in 1948. Another triangular offset involving Argentina and Venezuela would have been with Chile, a small creditor with Venezuela. If Venezuela would have accepted Argentine pesos, this mould also have helped Chile in her temporary difficulties with Argentina. Again, the compensable sum would have been very small.

A combination to help the position between Argentina and Chile could have included Cuba, a debtor to Chile of over $2 million, and a small creditor of Argentina (?>200,000). Here again there is the drawback that Cuba at this time had dollars to pay which would have been welcome to Chile. The two last offsets might have been combined, since Argentina was creditor to Chile, Chile to Cuba, Cuba to Venezuela and Venezuela to Argentina. The only opportunity apparently afforded for compensating Chile's large debit nosition with Peril was also through Cuba. Lebts all round might have been reduced by the amount of Cuba's credit with Peru

M00,00°).

Triangular compensations might be explored in all cases where bi-lateral strains appear, and undoubtedly some offer fruitful-possibilities. In general, however, these solutions could only be temporary and partial, and many practical drawbacks attend any individual deal. The main diffi-culties within Latin America seem to be that one of the vital balancensaet'nins

s

is sure to be very small and that so many of the theoretical comp involve northern countries that in 1948, at any rate, were not short of

dollars.

3. Compensations with Europe.

Tables K to Q show trade and balances between the Latin American and .1]uropean countries most concerned in trade with each other in 19 indication

38, 1947

and the first six months of 1948. Tables R to T give a rough of the extent to which each country's trade with the other continent taken as a whole was bilaterally balanced, showed a net surplus, or was able to

offset individual surpluses and deficits.

According to Tables R and S, it appears that a higher proportion of trade was bilaterally balanced in 1938 than in 1947. The 1938 position was weighted by Germany, with a very high degree of bilateralism, in an over-all trade with Latin America second only to Greaof

t Bbalanced traderitain. Neverthe-

less, even excluding Cermany's trade, the nroportion showed a decline between 1938 and 1947, while the proportion of net sur-plus (export surplus for Latin America) rose. The first six monthstrade

of and

1948 showed a,decline in the proportion of bilaterally balanced

E/CN.12/87

a rise in the multilateral offsetting of surpluses and deficits. Net surpluses showed little change, For what they are worth, these figures

tend to support the doubts already expressed as to the importance in global multilateral financing of the net surplus with Europe before the . In-visible payments .iould have reduced the possibilities still more.war

Another point of interest is the small proportion of multilaterally compensable trade in 1938. Of course 1938 is a single year, and not necessarily typical even of the late thirties.

As regards individual countries, Peril and Venezuela seem to nave changed from net importers from Earope before the war to net exporters, while Colombia and Ecuador have changed to net importers. Other Latin American countries maintained a net export surplus. In 1947 and 1948 Brazil and Uruguay had the largest proportions of their trade bilaterally balanced, while the chief net surplus countries (apart from Cuba and the Dominican Republic) were Argentina (export) and Colombia (import). Ecuador, Venezuela and Mexico are shown as the countries with the highest proportion of multilaterally compensable trade with Europe.

On the European side, S,eden and Switzerland lost in 1948 the high degree of balance they had in 1947. Sweden increased a net export surplus. while Switzerland changed from a small net export surplus to a larger net import surplus. Apart from Germany, the European countries showing the highest degree of net import surplus were the Netherlands and Denmark. The United Kingdom, with the highest absolute import surplus, had reduced it considerably in 1948. European countries showing the highest proportion of multilateral trade with Latin 4merica were Switzerland and Czecho-slovakia.

Poaitions under general clearing scheme

The actual working-out of a clearing scheme would depend on its effects on Individual countries and this again would depend on whether net balances were wholly or partially convertible into dollars.

The actual mechanism of clearing, whether net positions were regis-tered centrally, or mer:bers were allotted quotas of a ned currency unit acceptable within the group, or members' currencies were exchangeable with each other, is not material for the argument. If credit balances could only be used in Europe or Latin America, a certain amount of benefit would result for Latin alerican countries in an intermediate position. Brazil, for instance, in early 1948 had credit and debit trade balances fairly evenly distributed throughout Europe and Latin america, and general convertibility would have done away with the necessity of many bilateral agreements, some of which, as described in Section 11.3, got into difficulties in 1947 and 1948. Ecuador, half of whose total trade in early 1948 was with other Latin American countries, .pith a persistent creditor position, might have benefitted if the surplus had been available to settle a small European deficit. Venezuela was another country which theoretically would have benefitted from multilateral clearing, but

07 0 9 E/CN.12/87

Venezuela is one of the few Latin American countries without balance of payments difficulties. Of the big net surplus countries, Argentina,

both in 1947 and early 1948, was a net creditor with all :uropean countries

(except S.,eden and, in 1947, Czechoslovakia) and with all Latin American countries except Brazil and Mexico (Venezuela in 1948)• A clearing within Latin America and Europe would, on the basis of trade balances in the first half of 1948, have given Argentina a credit of perhaps 1450 million. Unless she was able to increase her imports from other members, this balance would have remained frozen. Instead of the present relation with the United Kingdom, which, abstracting from sterling balances, inrestments, etc., is a large trade debt from the United Kingdom, there would be a new relation, with Argentina a creditor of the group as a whole, and the United Kingdom contributing according to her net deficit with the group as a whole. If inter-convertibility extended to relations within Europe, the United King-dom might not even have a net deficit with the group. argentine's problem, of course, is her dollar deficit, which would not be affected directly, although it might be affected indirectly by a substitution of dollar goods from Europe. In the absence of trade statistics for 1948, it is not known how the situation developed, but it ma-r be that a decrease in Argentina's exnort surplus lessened the possibility of the peso becoming a "scarce currency" in a clearing union. The other country with a large net (import) surplus, Colombia, had in 1947 and early 1948 deficits with almost every country in Latin ,merica and Europe. There would, therefore, have been no nossibilities of compensation, and if other members had been willing to extend credit, Colombia would have been in debt to the group for about

”2 million at June 1948. Otherwise, she would have had to adjust to the

position by expanding exports or reducing imports.

On the more realistic assumption that dollars or gold were in part If debit

introduced into the system, the problems would be different. Members.' own balance were wholly or in part payable in hard currency from reserves, a big net creditor such as Argentina would be on the way to solve her dollar problem, but her debtors who now pay in their own currencies under bilateral agreements and who may be short of dollars might take steps to safeguard their reserves by reducing their imports. Argentina and other creditors might also reduce imports to increase balancead:

s ustments

convertible into dollars. The big net debtors would also face which they might have transferred to their creditors under the previous

assumption.

If debts within the clearing were backed by hard currency in a central reserve, the position would be different again. If the reserve was merely pooled resources, the burden would fall very unevenly, since it would have to be contributed to mainly by Central American countries, Venezuela, and one or two European countries. The a(vantage from it would go to countries which were net creditors within the group, but debtors outside it.

If the reserve was set up as partially a gift from outside, the effects would be as described in the sub-section on a general clearing.

E/CN.12/87

Iriamul_ar compensations

It is possible that some bilateral points of strain could be eased by triangular currency deals. This can only be discovered by examining relations between individual countries. The theoretical possibility of an offset of this type is no guarantee of its usefulness. In many cases the sums involved would be trifling, or bilateral relations quickly change, or one of the countries involved is not interested or would prefer to retain a aparticular debt for future bargaining purposes.

Of countries which seem to offer themselves as possible subjects, Belgium in 1948 was a persistent net creditor in Europe with a scarce currency causing difficult relationships. Trade balances in the first half of 1948 (Table Q) show Brazil as a creditor of Belgium and France of Brazil. This latter was a temporary relationship, due to abnormal circum-stances, but on the basis of these figures, and with Belgium a creditor of France, there might have been some agreement to cancel debts mutually, thus renewing credit margins, or payments might have been made in Belgian francs. Similarly Belgium, Sweden and Chile might have come to some agreement. One of the difficulties here might have been that Chile was able to get dollars for her exports of copner and nitrate to Belgium, and might have preferred free dollars to spend in the United States rather than aelgian francs to settle a debt with Sweden. Theoretically the two triangles would have offered possibilities of combination, Brazil showing a credit balance with Chile (Table Y).

One of the reasons why it is not very profitable to suggest triangular compensations between Latin American and European countries on the basis of trade balances, is that other financial payments may be very important. For instance it might be concluded from the trade surplus of Argentina with Italy in 194e (Tables Q and V) and the hardening of the Italian lira in'European relations in the first few months of the European payments agreement, that these two might be combined in a useful triangular offset, but in fact the non-trade payments of Argentina to Italy would quite alter the picture.

There are other possibilities of this type of compensation which might be explored if it was thought worthwhile. Uruguay, for instance, had credits in Europe that might have been offset against debits in Latin America.

Use of sterling

Some degree of multilaterar financing of trade between Latin American and European countries is already provided by the use of sterling. About fourteen countries in Central and South America are "American Account" countries, and holders of sterling in these countries are free to transfer it automatically to "Transferable Account" countries and administratively almost anywhere in the world. They also have the right automatically to convert into dollars.

n C' E/CN.12/87

In Europe, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Czecho-slovakia, Poland, Finland and the U.S.S.R. are "Transferable Account" countries, and holders of sterling there can make payments for direct current transactions through Transferable Accounts to residents of other Transferable Account countries, as dell as to the Sterling Area. Chile is also a Transferable Account country.

The general position of sterling in Latin American depends basically on the capacity of the sterling area to produce essential goods. The use of sterling in multilateral financing between Latin America and Europe is likely to run into difficulties whenever there are lErge net holders of sterling. For instance, in default of sterling convertibility into dollars, Argentina might have liked to use her accumulated sterling bal-ances in Belgium, dhere she was in payments difficulties in 198. For the United Kingdom this would probably have meant gold payments to Belgium

under the terms of their bilateral agreement.

4CN,12/87

IV. Summary

The most important elements in the regional payments problems of a limited group of countries are the over-all positions of the group itself and of its separate members. In Latin America as a whole the inflationary effects of export surpluses during the war and of the needs of developvent combined with the restoration of sources of supply to expand imports greatly in 1946 and 1947. The great reduction in the possibility of importing from Europe concentrated the balance-of-payments strain on relations with the dollar area and caused a serious decline in gold and dollar reserves. These problems, while serious, seemed in 1948 to be for most countries in process of being overcome, with a reduction in imports from the United states and the restoration of sources of supply in other areas. Latin American countries need increased supplies of capital and other goods for development purposes. If export markets in the United states cannot be significantly expanded, it is probable that non-dollar sources of supply will have to be developed. In any case, an increase of imports from Europe is likely to be desirable, since at the end of the Recovery Program Europe may be unable to pay for a large import surplus from Latin America in con-vertible currency or balance it with service income. Statements about Europe and Latin America as units do not necessarily apply equally, or even at all, to individual countries. Some Latin American countries may be able to earn net dollars in Europe, and some European countries in Latin America.

Trade relations between Latin Ameridan countries themselves are a small proportion (10 per cent, on the average) of their total trade, tfiough for some countries they are quite important. Intra-Latin American trade has increased in volume since the 'thirties, though it has declined from the high and uneconomic level reached during the war. Owing to difficulties in dollar payments, perhaps one-half of intra-regional trade (mainly in the south and east) was bilaterally financed in 1948. financing in 1947 and 1948 was producing some difficulties and a tendency towards bilateral balance. An increase and a diversification in trade with each other can be expected as Latin American countries grow away from the specialized export economy which is not conducive to mutual

trade. Industrialization and agricultural diversification will mean new neighboring markets for products of new industries (particularly of consumer goods) and new demands for food and raw materials. These developments will take time, and as meanwhile capital goods must continue to come from overseas, the conservation of dollar resources and the fostering of trade relations with non-dollar areas must remain an over-riding consideration. An ex-panded regional system could not in the short run be expected materially to help the main balance-of-payments problems. More flexibility

in payments arrangements and greater opportunities for multilateral financing within Latin America are desirable. Freer convertibility between Latin American

0793 EPN.12/87

currencies would require some adjustments but probably not of a major character. A comprehensive multilateral clearing scheme within Latin America (or between Latin America and Furope) would necessarily be a com-plicated experiment, entailing much labor and organization. There wculd be many effects in various directions which it would be difficult to forecast, and some of which might not be beneficial. Among the technical difficulties in Latin America would be multiple exchange rates, the disposition of the foreign exchange proceeds of foreign-owned export companies, and the lack of a tradition of close cooperation between central banks. The effort involved would almost certainly be out of proportion to the benefits received. For the immediate futures perhaps the most promising approach

is an eYploration of the possibilities of triangular offsets and of somithout e

further use of sterling. The problem, however, will not be solved w restoration of over-all balance, so that more local currencies may be made convertible, and dollars used more freely in payments between Latin American

countries, particularly in the north,

Trade relations with Europe are a more important part of the general Latin American picture, and possibilities should be explored to smooth and expand them, without however creating a protected system in which the per-sistence of high costs and uneconomic exchanges is encouraged; This would be against the wider international interests of both areas. It is important that European countries develop the production, on a competitive basis, of the capital goods required in Latin America. For the present, perhaps payments could be improved by administering and adapting existing agree-ments in a cooperative spirit, some triangular compensations could be explored in cases of strain, and wider use of sterling could be considered,

particularly in the south.

The present paper, according to its terms of reference, deals only with the short•run position. Owing to the inevitable time lag in receiving information, some of the interpretations may be more applicable to the position of 1948 than to that of 1949. As world conditions change, policies will have to be adapted to meet them, the Fund and its members working together towards the establishment of general convertibility.

E/CN.12/87

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E/CN.12/37

Table R. Nature of Trade between Latin America and Europe - 1938

(Percentage of Total Turnover)

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Multilaterally Net surplus dempensable export or import

in American Countries '7ith Europe

79 9 12 E Arzentina *

• 85 11 4 E Brazil Chile 55

13 32 E

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Cuba

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1

E/CN.12/87

Table S. Nature of Trade between Latin America and Europe - 1947


Bilaterally Multilaterally Net Surplus balanced dompensable export or import

Latin American Countries with Europe

Argentina 54 2 44 E Brazil 70 4 26 E Chile 55 8 37 E Colombia 37 10 53 I Cuba 23 8 69 E Dominican Republic 7 1 92 E Ecuador 18 55 27 I Mexico 65 22 13 E Peru 56 14 30 E Uruguay 67 7 26 E Venezuela 51 39 10 E

6 39 A 55 8 37 B

European Countries with Iatin America

Belgium 60 4 36 I Czechoslovakia 46 46 8 I Denmark 22 11 67 I France Germany

52 3 45 I - - 1, Italy 80 6 14 100 I I

Netherlands 26 - 74 I Norway 60 21 19 I Portugal 60 2 38 I Spain 34 5 61 I Sweden 87 11 2 Switzerland 75 24 1 E E United Kingdom 50 6 44 I

8 37 A 55 8 37 B

A gives proportion of multilaterally compensable trade and net surplus without allowance for compensation among individual countries in each continent of their export and import surpluses in trade with the other continent.

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•

08

E/CN.12/87

Table T. Nature of Trade between Latin America and Europe, January—June 1948


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Net surplus export or import

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Latin American Countries with Europe

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European Countries with Latin America

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France 35 10 10

Germany 8 Italy 48 10 Netherlands 27

2

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13

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API:E.:THY,. II

Trade anljtarlsAgreements of Latin American Countries

Appendix II contains the main trade and payments agreements relevant to the subject matter of the present paper, entered into by Latin American countries among themselves and with certain European countries in the years 194E-1949. In a few cases, and for special reasons, references to earlier agreements have been included. In an effort to present clearly and com-parably the main provisions of the agreements, they have been set out tabular fort. It should be pointed out that as the agreements are by Alt means of a standard character, being very varied both in construction and subject matter, attempts at tabulation are bound to create difficulties. 4

The main common features of the agreements chosen for tabulation are provisions for bilateral financing of trade transactions, or for limiting the necessity for payments by means of compensation of snecific quantities or values of goods exchanged. Even within this limited field the list of agreements is by no means complete. For various reasons many governments are reluctant to publish or make available to the Fund ..che detailed texts of the trade and payments agreements they conclude. The staff has there-fore been obliged to gather some of its information from various other sources, official or otherwise. Any inaccuracies in the present summary, or in the main paper, which has also had to draw on these sourcegy may well be attributable to this circumstance.

The expression "payments agreement" has not been used in any strictly defined technical sense, but as a general term to cover any agreement deal-ing with the conditions attaching to current payments. Use of the term "clearing agreement" has been avoided because in post war conditions it has not yet acquired an unequivocal and generally acceptable meaning. In some cases the expression "clearing mechanism" or "clearing arrangement" has been used broadly to indicate arrangements by which foreign exchange payments are avoided by means of accounts, usually maintained in central banks, into which domestic importers pay and from which domestic exporters are reimbursed. The term "compensation agreement" has also been avoided because it has not at present a precise meaning; 7.7ut "compensation mecha-nism" or "settlement by compensation" has been used where an exchange of goods of equal value is provided for, and the accounting is based on the principle that no cash settlement will be necessary,

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