unit 1 revision guide
TRANSCRIPT
UNIT 1 REVISION GUIDE
1. Democracy and Representation 2. Political Parties 3. Electoral Systems 4. Voting Behaviour and the Media
Unit 1.1- Democracy and Representation
1.1 Current systems of democracy in the UK Democracy: Greek word meaning people rule. Defined by Lincoln in 1863 ‘Government by the people, of the people and for the people’ Liberal Democracy: When a democracy has pluralism, and good rights protection. Features and examples of Direct Democracy and Advantages/Disadvantages
When there is no distinction between the Government and the Governed, expressing opinions themselves.
Seen in its purest form in Ancient Athens and the Swiss Cantons.
In the UK it can be seen through referendums (EU in 2016, Scottish Independence 2014, AV voting system 2011), the 2015 Recall of MPs Act and petitions. Normal people expressing opinions outside of elections.
Advantages Disadvantages
Gives equal weight to all votes, unlike a representative system where varying sizes of constituencies mean that votes do not have equal value
Impractical in large, heavily populated modern states where decision making needs to be quick and is complicated
Encourages participation as citizens will feel they make an impact
Many people will not want to or will be qualified enough to take part in decision making- with some issues being too complex
Removes the need for representatives who can sometimes fail in their duty
Open to manipulation as some voters will be easily led and too emotional
Purest form of democracy meaning an increase in legitimacy
Leads to tyranny of the majority, minorities will always be ignored
It can work in a modern context- referendums and Swiss cantons.
Can undermine elected representatives who are usually more professional and educated in political issues.
Features and examples of Representative Democracy and Advantages/Disadvantages
Where people are not involved in every decision but rather pick a representative who will make decisions on their behalf.
Examples in the UK: Represented by MP, MEP, Councilor, Mayor and Assembly Members.
Can also be represented by Pressure Groups and Political Parties.
Representative Democracy relies on constituencies where citizens pick their representative. Constituents therefore expect their representative to represent them. Because they are elected, they can be legitimate, and if they don’t represent well they can be held accountable at the next election
Advantages Disadvantages
Only practical system in a modern state May lead to reduced participation as citizens let representatives make decisions
Politicians form parties and ensure there is a clear choice, aided by Pressure Groups, there is a pluralist democracy of many choices.`
Parties and Pressure Groups are often run by elite members of society- pursuing their own agendas not actually representing the people
Reduces chance of the tyranny of the majority as representatives can look our for under-represented groups
Minorities still in danger as politicians who want to be elected will side with the majority
Elections allow representatives to be held to count for decisions
Politicians have teams of media campaigners to avoid accountability and our elections in the UK are every 5 years
Politicians are in theory better informed to make momentous decisions
Politicians can become corrupt and incompetent and betray their electorate
What is a good democracy?- use these to analyse UK democracy
A peaceful transition of power
Free and fair elections
Widespread Participation
Freedom of expression and information
Freedom of association
Protection of rights and liberties
Rule of law and an independent judiciary
Accountable Government.
All citizens well represented How democratic is the UK?
Good Features Negative Features
Peaceful transition of power- election losses are never contested and do not result in violence
Our voting system FPTP is not proportional so minority views are ignored (UKIP 2015)
Representation is improved by our devolved institutions with Scotland, Wales and N Ireland
Parliaments sovereignty means that citizens rights can always be overruled
Elections are largely free and fair and in secret- universal suffrage
House of Lords are unelected
We have an independent judiciary which uphold the rule of law and check the Government
Much of the media is owned by wealthy unaccountable business and can sway elections
Turnout and participation is increasing Participation crisis of recent decades
We have a free media that can challenge politicians Money is still very important in our system helping political parties and pressure groups succeed
We have a pluralist democracy- there are numerous options of Parties and Pressure Groups to support
Suffrage can still be reformed- votes at 16
Is there a participation crisis?
Yes No
Turnout at elections has greatly reduced: averaging nearly 75% between 1979 and 1997, now closer to 65%. 2019 saw a reduction again to 67%
Election Turnouts are improving since lowpoint of 59% in 2001, up to 69% in 2017 (has gone down in 2019)
Party membership has also greatly reduced with 4% of the electorate being members in 1980 compared to 1% today
Recent referendums have shown that on important issues where voting can be seen to make a difference turnout increases- 84% for Scottish independence and 72% for EU Referendum
Turnout is especially poor at a younger level: 58% in 2017 for 18-24, and 47% in 2019!
Political Party membership is increasing. In wake of Corbynism Labour is now over 500,000 and SNP more than quadrupled beyween 2013 and 2016
The new elections may not be helping- 27% turnout for Police and Crime Commissioners in 2016 and less than 30% for Metropolitan Mayors
E-Democracy is increasing in popularity with 38 Degrees petitions beginning to get more and more signatures- 3.8 million for a second EU Referendum- 6 million signatures for revoking Article 50
What reforms are there?
Votes at 16- the belief that but allowing 16/17 year olds to vote it will increase level of political awareness and ensure that young people are more informed and passionate for voting. Some argue that it will not work, and low youth turnout would continue.
More E-Democracy- belief voting could be made easier with polling day being too much hassle for many people in the 21st century
Compulsory Voting- belief that voting should be compulsory, fining those who don’t. This is used in Belgium where turnout is always above 80%. Some argue this would not increase passion and is also undemocratic
More referendums- belief that the high turnouts of Scotland Brexit referendums show that they are popular and will ensure participation doesn’t reduce. However, these two were very important the AV referendum of 2011 had a turnout of 42%.
These ones will come up later
Change Voting system
Get rid of House of Lords
More devolution
Recall elections 1.2 A wider franchise and debates over suffrage How has suffrage changed?
Votes at 16 for and against (now have the vote in Scotland and Wales!):
For Against
With the increase in youth engagement and in the wake of Brexit, young people are better informed than ever before
16/17 year olds are too young to make mature rational decisions.
18-24 year old turnout is currently very low, this may encourage them to vote, by engaging them early; ¾ voted in Scottish referendum.
Many issues are too complex for young people to understand.
If you are old enough to marry, join the army and have sex; you should be able to vote.
Very few pay tax, so don’t have a stake in society
Could help to balance out conservatism of the old- over 80% of 70+ voted Tory.
The young are too radical as they have too little life experience
Many issues will affect 16-17 year olds more than other parts of the electorate.
Turnout is usually very low among the young : 58% in 2017 for 18-24, and 47% in 2019!
Compulsory Voting for and against:
For Against
Forces voters, especially younger voters to engage with and learn about politics
It is a violation of civil liberties, we should have the right to not take part.
It will increase turnout and therefore increase the legitimacy of any Government
It will force people to vote meaning many ill informed decisions will be made
It will ensure all sections of society vote, meaning representatives have to design policies for all, not just the groups that tend to vote
It will cost far too much to create and enforce system
It could be argued that it is a duty to vote, so you should be obliged to do it not forced
It will favour famous and large parties, as uniformed people will vote for them
Votes for Prisoners
For Against
Removes a civic duty from prisoners, making rehabilitation harder
Those who commit a crime against society should lose their right to have a say in it.
There is no evidence that losing the right o vote acts as a deterrent
The threat of losing the vote helps to stop crime
The right to vote is a fundamental right and should not be able to be removed
Would undermine the principle of justice
European Convention of Human Rights said it was a breach of rights
Prisoners are concentrated in the constituency of prisons, giving them disproportionate say in elections
1.3 Pressure groups and other influences Types of Pressure Groups:
Sectional: represent a section of society, so fight many issues- Countryside Alliance.
Promotional: support and focus on one cause- CND
Inside: have a link through membership or ideology to the Government- NFU and DEFRA
Outsider: are separate to the Government- Greenpeace
Social Movement: Are looser in organisation and have much wider goals- Black Lives Matter Functions of a Pressure Group:
To represent- British Stammering Association
To hold the Government to account- Liberty and British Bill of Rights
To provide expertise on laws- NFU and DEFRA
To educate- Making Votes Matter
To increase participation- ANYONE Methods of a Pressure Group:
Direct Action- Student Protests in 2010, Black Lives Matter protests 2020
Lobbying MPs- Liberty’s campaign against the British Bill of Rights
Legal Challenges- Countryside Alliance challenged Fox Hunting ban in High Court, Anti-Brexit groups took Article 50 to Supreme Court.
Insider negotiation- NFU have close links with DEFRA.
Protests- People’s Vote March, March against Iraq War.
Media Campaigns- NUT’s 2017 campaign to highlight education cuts What makes a Pressure Group successful?
Factor Example
Size RSPB has over 1.2 million members
but how active are their members?- Cheque-book participation?
Finance Unite Union- 4 million to Labour in 2017
But Methods can be more important
Methods Petition in 2016 stopped privatization of land registry
Active Membership
Fathers4Justice
But, can be too active- student protest
Government support
NFU are an insider group
CBI and Corporation tax
But.. can change quickly, BMA went against the Tories
Achievability Of Goals
Occupy had a large aim that failed, BMA had simple aim of banning smoking in cars with Children
BUT… was the fact the BMA were insiders more important?
Public Support Snowdrop Campaogn in 1996
BUT… Iraq War protest had support
Do pressure groups enhance democracy?
Enhance democracy Threaten democracy
Pressure Groups help to disperse power: 2016 to stop privatization of land registry
Pressure Groups can be elitist and concentrate power: Nissan and factory funding 2017, Richard Desmond being given planning permission in 2020
Pressure Groups educate people on issues: Liberty on Human Rights
Pressure Groups may promote misinformation: Britain First
Pressure Groups increase participation: Any Group
Pressure Groups themselves, may not be democratic: No one elects the leaders of the CBI or BBA
Pressure Groups improve representation: British Stammering Association and Surfers Against Sewage.
Wealth is the key factor that determines the influence, so poor groups are denied influence: Bernie Ecclestone, Nissan funding, Richard Desmond and Jenrick affair.
Pressure Groups help to hold the Government to account: NUT and Tory cuts 2017, Rashford on FSM 2020, NEU on schools reopening 2020
Pressure groups can use non-democratic means of protest: Student protest 2010-11, Extinction Rebellion 2019/20
Other types:
Corporations: Nissan, Formula 1
Lobbyists: PLMR, Bell-Pottinger
Think Tanks: Adam Smith Institute (Tory)
Celebrities: Joanna Lumley (Gurkhas), Jamie Oliver Healthy eating) Marcu Rashford (Free School Meals) 1.4 Rights in context Key terms:
• Common Law: Judge made laws that establish precedence on disputes • Judicial review: When the supreme court or senior judges decide if laws fit the Human Rights Act • Sovereignty: Ultimate power- parliament can make any law. • Civil Liberty: A freedom protected by the Government • Social Right: A human right based on quality of life as opposed to freedoms • Positive right: Right that is protected due to action by the Government • Negative right: Right that is protected by the inaction of the Government • Human rights: Rights you are given due to beign human
How have laws changed to protect rights:
Magna Carta 1215: Imposed various restrictions on the monarchy in order to prevent the arbitrary abuse of power by the monarch
Bill of Rights 1689: Imposed greater limits on the power of the monarchy and set out the rights of parliament- regular elections, free speech and free elections.
European Convention of Human Rights 1953: Government actions had to comply with the ECHR, and could be challenged in the European Courts if broken.
European Court of justice 1973: After Joining the EEC, the Court of Justice could now protect workers rights
Data Protection Act 1984: Established protections surrounding personal information held by public institution.
Human Rights Act 1998: Put the ECHR into UK law, could now be challenged and protected in UK courts.
Freedom of Information Act 2000: Allowed Citizens to make requests of the Government and access any non-security related information. Increasing transparency.
Equality Act 2010: Consolidated all anti-discrimination laws together, protecting sexuality, gender, religion, race, age etc.
How are rights protected:
Pressure Groups: o Liberty UK helped to pressure the Conservatives over the British Bill of Rights in 2015-2016, keeping
the HRA. o Campaign for Freedom of Information led to the law passing and they stopped MPs from changing
the law in 2007 to ensure requests could not be made of Parliament. o 2017 Unison won a court case declaring expensive tribunal fees unlawful
Parliament: o In Nov 2005, Blair tried to change the number of days you could be detained for from 14 to 90 days.
This was defeated by Parliament.
Judiciary: o Supreme Court ruled that a bakers had to make a wedding cake for a homosexual couple in 2016,
court ruled that was against their rights. o Supreme Court can stop legislation that goes against laws- 2004 they stopped indefinite detention of
foreign nationals accused of terrorism o Supreme Court ruled in 2018 that Pimlico Plumbers were not self-employed so were deserved
employment rights. o High Court declared in March 2019 that laws holding Landlords to account for migration status of
Immigrants went against the HRA as it encouraged landlords to discriminate. o September 2019 Courts declared Boris Johnson’s attempt to Prorogue Parliament illegal and
Parliament sat the next day. o February 2020, deportations to Jamaica delayed due to human rights groups
Laws: o Human Rights Act 1998 protects all our rights form the ECHR and means they are legally binding o Equality Act 2010, means all demographics are now protected from discrimination .
Are rights well protected USE UNIT 2 KNOWELDGE AS WELL!
Strengths Weaknesses
Strong common law tradition to update rights and protect us
Common law can be vague and overruled by Parliament
The UK has to comply with the European Convention of Human rights
Parliament is sovereign and can overrule anything- in 2010 passed the Terrorist asset freezing act to avoid a court ruling.
Judiciary is independent and is happy to overrule Government
Terrorism has led to rights being reduced
Snoopers Charter 2016
Secret Courts 2013
Pressure groups help to educate and hold Government to account
Government has a majority so can in theory change all right laws (Tony Blair in 1997 had 418/650 seats!) Boris Johnson right now! Laws on terrorism in 2020.
Coronavirus legislation shows how quickly laws can be passed which have huge impact on rights- Police arresting people etc.
Collective vs Individual rights:
Glossary:
Unit 1.2 Political Parties
2.1 Political Parties Functions of Parties:
Convert political ideas into policies (policy formulation by discussion is called aggregation
All for participation through internal voting, discussion, leafleting etc.
Represent sections of society, certain issues, and political ideas
Select candidates for election to council, Parliament, European Parliament etc.
Identify leaders – Prime Ministers are leaders of a party
Help to organise elections and provide choice in these elections
They help to educate the public on issues Features of Parties:
Members hold broadly similar views
They seek to secure elections of their candidates at various levels
They have an organisation to help develop policies, select leaders etc.
They have some kind of formal membership Left vs Right Wing Policies
Left Right
Redistribute income through high taxes and welfare
Strong support for welfare state
Support workers’ rights and trade unions
State should be involved in economy through support or control
A stress on equal rights for all in society
Support for equality of opportunity
Low levels of tax to incentivise work and enterprise
Acceptance of private sector involvement in public services
State should not interfere in economy
Support for free market and reducing trade union power
Strong on law and order
Stress individualism and national identity
Parties and ideological Position
How are Parties Funded?
Collecting membership fees
Holding fundraising events
Receiving donations
Raising loans
Self-financing of candidates
£2 million available in state grants
Short money available for opposition political parties
Labour Green
Lib Dems SNP Tories
UKIP
Why is funding controversial?
Funds collected vary considerably. In the three months before the 2017 election:
Tories Labour Lib Dems SNP UKIP Plaid Cymru
£25 million £9.5 million £.4.4 million £600,000 £150, 000 £5,300
Funding by large donors may give them influence. Labour received £4.4 million Unite Union, Tories received £1.5 million from the JCB Hedge fund
Cash for honours and cash for questions scandals, show problem of funding Richard Desmond scandal 2020, big donation after his bulding was approved by Conservatives.
Declining party memberships makes parties more reliant on donations
2019 Election funding:
Proposed solutions - Impose restrictions on size of individual donations - Impose tight restrictions on spending - Outlaw donations from anyone other than individuals - Replace with state funding
2.1 Established Political Parties Old Labour values and policies Values:
Equality and social justice
Class conflict
Equality of opportunity
Collectivism
Common ownership
Trade Unionism
Nationalisation and statism
Welfarism Policies:
Economy Nationalise key industries: Rail, Energy, Water etc
Control economy – state intervention
Taxation Progressive taxation (very high for rich, 90% for Wilson in 60s)
Trade Unions Protected through laws
Donations to Parties between October and December 31st 2019- Highest ever, £70 Million in all!
Party Funding
Conservatives £37.6 million
Liberal Democrats £13.7 million
Labour £10 million
Brexit Party £7 million
Green Paty £0.4 million (409,000)
SNP £0.2 million (213,000)
Plaid Cymru £0.09 million (90,000!)
YES NO
It will end opportunities for corrupt use of donations
It will end opportunities for ‘hidden’ funding and influence of money
Reduce huge financial advantage of big parties
Improve democracy, by increasing wider participation of all groups, not just the rich
Taxpayers may object to their taxes funding certain parties
It will be difficult to know how to divide up state funding. Will bigger parties get more? Will this make change harder?
Parties may lose some independence
May lead to state regulation of parties
State funding?
Very close to government, lots of beer and sandwiches
Health Create National Health Service
Education Created comprehensive education – against grammar schools
Belief in free education – no tuition fees, generous grants etc.
Europe Traditionally opposed to Europe, believe it may challenge socialism
BUT liked that it began to protect workers
Foreign Policy Committed to nuclear disarmament
Anti-Intervention- Harold Wilson avoids Vietnam
Low military spending
Law and Order Believe in rehabilitation over punishment
Social Issues/Misc.
Progressive- Legalise homosexuality, abortion and illegalise the death penalty
Anti-racist policies
New Labour values and policies Values:
Reject class conflict
Capitalism
Enabling state- allow private companies to create wealth and don’t control the economy.
Individualism
Equality of opportunity
Communitarianism
Constitutional reform.
Economy Follow on with Thatcherism and Neo-Liberalism
No renationalisation, happy to keep things privatised
Huge public spending- Tax Credits, NHS spending, Schools etc.
Focus on attacking poverty as opposed to creating equality- introduce minimum wage
Taxation Kept low- similar to Thatcher- ‘No problem with people getting filthy rich’
Trade unions Limited role, no reversal of Thatcher policies
Health Huge expenditure.
Introduced more capitalist ideas- league tables and private contracts.
Education Huge expenditure.
Increase in University places, but also introduction of fees.
Europe Very Pro-Europe
Foreign Policy Want UK to take a leading role- support the making and possession of Nuclear weapons.
Believe in intervention- Kosovo 1999 and Iraq 2003
Pro-EU and globalization.
Law and Order
Tough on crime and tough on causes of crime.
Introduce strict anti-terror laws and ASBOs
Social Issues/Misc.
Progressive- Anti-Discrimination laws and Human Rights Act
Lots of reform- devolve power to Scotland/Wales/N.Ireland, Freedom of Information Act, Constitutional Reform Act. Etc.
Jeremy Corbyn’s policies 2019
Area Policy
Economy Nationalisation of rail, water, energy and royal mail.
Increase minimum wage to living wage
Aim for a 4 day week
End public sector pay cap
Massive increase house building
Taxation Reintroduce 50- tax rate on highest earners
New income Tax of 45p on £80,000 or more
Increase corporation tax, but keep it low for small businesses
Trade unions Repeal Trade Union act to make strikes easier
Workers would receive 10% of shares of public companies
Ensure that a 1/3rd of board members are workers
Health Huge expenditure- £30bn increase
New mental health specific budgets
Free prescriptions for all in UK
New free social care for Elderly- National Care Scheme
Education Scrap tuition fees
No grammars
Free school meals for all primary kids.
New idea of a National Education Service (like an NHS)
Abolish and Nationalize all Private Schools
Abolish Ofsted
Europe Want to renegotiate Brexit and then have a second referendum to confirm it (will be neutral during the referendum)
Foreign Policy Support Trident
Maintain spending on defence Law and Order Increase police numbers by 30,000
End short prison sentences
Social Issues/Misc. Progressive- Anti-Discrimination laws and support Human Rights Act
Votes at 16
In favour of constitutional reform
Current Labour (2019 manifesto) New or Old Labour?
Old New
Believes in nationalisation
High taxes
No tuition fees and anti-grammar
Pro-Brexit
Support Trade Unions
Command economy
Belief in society not individualism
Pro Trident and want to maintain defence spending
Massive public spending
Increase in minimum wage
Want to continue constitutional reform
Most MPs would still consider themselves New Labour, so majority of Party is actually New Labour.
Starmer’s first few months’ policies/position- 10 pledges he made in campaign.
Economy: End Universal Credit, Nationalize industries
Taxation: Increase Income tax for top 5%, reverse corporation tax cut. SI
Social Issues/Misc: Green New Deal- Clean Air Act. Abolish House of Lords.
Foreign Policy: Prevention of Military Intervention Act. Review all arms sales.
Europe: Happy to let Brexit happen, but support a trade deal.
Trade Unions: Repeal Trade Union Act.
Education: Abolish tuition fees.
One Nation Conservatism values and policies Values:
Human nature is flawed
Order
Tradition
Organic society
Pragmatism
Property
Opposition to Ideology
Economy Want a mixed economy, both private and state control. Capitalism was seen as dangerous to the one nation idea, but creating problems between poor and rich.
Accepted nationalisation and didn’t reverse it. Edward Heath even bailed out Rolls Royce in the 1970s- Not free market.
Taxation Acceptance of progressive taxation, helps to bind nation together. Tax remained at 60-80% for highest earners.
Trade unions Believed Trade Unions helped to bind nation together and do not introduce anti-union laws.
Health NHS is left untouched and is well funded- pragmatic as they knew it was popular, but also because they believed it helped the one nation idea.
Education Well-funded state education- but also wanted to embrace opportunity.
Introduced the the tripartite system of Grammars, Technical colleges and Secondary Moderns.
Europe Very Pro-Europe- enter the EEC (later the EU) in 1973.
Foreign Policy Traditional and sought to uphold prestige of Empire- Suez invasion 1956
Law and Order
Belief in order and tradition- strong approach to Law and Order.
Social Issues/Misc.
Belief in traditional moral values. Vote against illegalising the death penalty and legalising abortion
Thatcherism values and policies Values:
Neo-Liberalism
Free Markets
Create incentives
Stop dependency culture
Disengage from controlling economy
Traditional values
Strong law and order
Neo-Conservative
Economy Believed Govt. involvement was the problem, not the solution. More private competition was needed to create incentives. Tried to make it a freer market.
Privatised nearly all key industries, and let failing businesses go bust- Mines, Steel mills etc.
No longer put money into national schemes.
Reduced regulations in all areas and disengaged from economy- Right to buy council houses.
Taxation Taxes disincentives hard work. Needs to be less progressive and more equal. Tax cuts for the wealthy, increase in VAT and Community charge (Poll Tax)
Trade unions Believe they ruin the economy and stop businesses from booming by forcing wages up and stopping the introduction of technology.
Passes laws to make it harder to go on strike, allows businesses to sue for lost money and defeats the miners’ strike. Market needs to be free of strong unions.
Health Suspicious of national services, and a belief in choice. Still accepted the NHS, but no funding increases and introduced competition between Hospitals (league tables) and tax breaks for those going Private.
Education Belief in choice and opportunity.
Stopped the closure of grammar schools, league tables (funding based on this) and assisted places schemes to help more go to Private Schools, cut funding of free school milk!
Europe Suspicious of multinational organisations, very nationalistic. Bit split on this- very pro Europe to begin with (joins the single Market) But then turns against it. NO, NO, NO she famously said when the EEC wanted to increase power.
Foreign Policy Nationalist and a want to defend markets and British interests. Very anti-communist, supported USA and Reagan. Falklands War in 1982
Law and Order
Belief in order and tradition meant they were strict and increased Prison sentences.
Social Issues/Misc.
Belief in traditional moral values. Section 28 (prohibited the promotion of homosexuality in schools) and refused to investigate the AIDS epidemic.
Boris Johnson Policies
Is Boris Johnson One Nation or Thatcherite?
One Nation Thatcherite
Increase to living wage
Increase to threshold on NIC
Increased public spending
Ending ‘Austerity’
Low corporation tax
Pro-Brexit
Cutting tax for rich (looks like he won’t actually do this)
Tough on Law and Order
Keep trade union act.
FlyBe Collapse!
Economy Increase to a national living wage (£9.59 an hour by 2020 and £10.30 by 2024)
‘Ended’ Austerity with $29 billion on infrastructure improvement, $5billion on improving broadband across countryside.
Let FlyBe collapse, not bailing it out!
Coronavirus policies of nationalization and wage support- Furlough scheme etc.
‘New Deal’ policy and ‘Build Build Build’. Big economic injections- Left wing looking
Taxation Increase the threshold at which you pay NIC (essentially a tax cut for poorer)
No change to income tax
Keep Corporation Tax at the same low level.
Trade unions
No reversal of Trade Union laws.
New law ensuring that all tips go to employees.
Health 40 more hospitals built (only 6 to begin with…)
£13 billion increase to health (only 2.8bn to start with)
New independent body with legal powers- HSSIB
Improved mental health act
Education Announced a £14 billion increase to Education spending (over 5 year)
Continue to expand Free Schools
£120m on increasing number of technical colleges
Europe New Boris Deal: o UK leaves EU o End of free movement o Northern Ireland remains in customs arrangement (so border is basically in the Irish sea)
Wants a new trade deal when they have left.
Foreign Policy
Support trident
Supports increase in building of Royal Navy
Law and Order
Harsher sentencing laws- have to serve at least 1/3rds of term now.
20,000 extra Police Officers
Social Issues/Misc.
New Environment bill- carbon, plastic and pollution clamped down.
New anti-voter fraud law
Budget 2020 update:
Tax cut for poorer via National insurance.
30bn for NHS via Coronavirus
Huge investments in infrastructure- High spending! And very One Nation Coronavirus 2020 update:
Furlough scheme until October, with Government helping pay for wages. Very One-Nation, pragmatic support of Economy.
‘New Deal’ announced in June, big increase in spending on housing, schools, health etc. Very One-Nation, but not as much money as New Labour.
Liberal traditional values and 2019 policies Values:
Liberty (classical liberals mean pure freedoms from state and be left alone. Modern liberals believe state has to intervene to ensure all have access to freedom)
Social justice
Environmentalism
Constitutionalism
Welfare
Social reform
Multiculturalism
Economy Reverse benefits cuts.
End public sector pat cup
Huge increase in spending on housing and economy- £130bn infrastructure injection
BUT…seek to still reduce borrowing overall and have a budget surplus
Taxation Increase tax by 1p for the NHS’s £7bn fund
Reverse corporation and inheritance tax cuts
New taxes on flying and on legalized marijuana.
Trade unions Keep Trade Union laws, but make trade union access easier
Make it easier for employees to buy shares in company
Health Increase spending by £7bn
Increase spending on mental health.
Education Increase spending and reverse cuts, improve teacher salaries and recruit more.
No Grammar schools
Reintroduce university grants (loans that don’t need to be repaid).
Europe Want to revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU, claim it will create a £50 billion remain bonus.
Foreign Policy Work to lead disarmament
Committed to 2% GDP spend on defence.
Law and Order
Increase community policing.
Legalise cannabis
End imprisonment for possession of drugs
Social Issues/Misc.
Ban fracking
More money on renewable energy sources- 80% renewable by 2030
Votes at 16
Abolish House of Lords.
Factions: Labour:
Corbynites- On the left of the party, supported by political group Momentum. Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnel, Diane Abbot.
Blairites- On the right of the party, want a return to New Labour ideas. Supported by political group Progress. Chuka Umunna, Yvette Cooper and Hilary Benn.
Blue Labour- Maurice Glasman- believe in returning to working class values with more traditional social policies.
Also split over Brexit. Owen Smith was sacked in March 2018 for supporting a second referendum. Conservative
Traditional 1980s split of the Wets (more liberal) and Dries (more conservative)
Social Conservatives- Supported by group Cornerstone- Jacob Rees Mogg
Pro Brexit- Supported by European Research Group which is chaired by Jacob Rees Mogg and supported by Boris Johnson- Have been so powerful recently, leading opposition to the withdrawal deal, and leading the 48 letters in Dec. 2018.
Anti-Brexit and One Nation: Supported by Tory Reform Group- Ken Clarke and Amber Rudd. Resignations of Sam Gyimah and Jo Johnson in support of another referendum
Thatcherite- Supported by Conservative Way Forward- Liam Fox. Liberal Democrats
Orange Book Liberals- based on the name of a 2004 book written by Nick Clegg, David laws and Vince Cable. Much more classical in style, and supportive of Thatcher’s changes. Neo-Liberal and more similar to New Labour.
Social Liberals- much closer to traditional SDP, and more linked to Labour ideals. Focus on need on social justice, than social freedom, so desire more Government intervention, Tim Farron leader 2015-2017 was one, so 2017 manifesto was very socially liberal.
2.3 Emerging and Minor Parties SNP Policies:
Want to become an independent country that remains in EU
Support constitutional reforms such as abolishing FPTP and introducing Votes at 16.
Anti Trident and Anti-Austerity
Social Democratic in nature and looks like they may use new tax powers to increase tax for rich.
Abolish tuition fees and supports the EMA (financial support for A-Level students)
Lots of pro-environment policies. Importance:
Although a reduction in seats from 57 to 35 in 2017, they are still the largest party in Scotland.
They are the Government on Scotland and have been since 2011 election.
Due to closeness of recent elections, it is expected they would be natural Coalition partners for Labour to reach a majority.
Huge increase again in 2019 48/59 UKIP Policies:
Hard Brexit- focusing on curbing immigration.
Raise tax thresholds- so poorer workers keep more.
Have a living wage and want strict inspections to make sure it is followed.
Tough on law and order and want an increase in all servicemen.
Want an expansion of grammar schools.
Want to increase funding for all public services.
Ban burqa and niqab
Close down Department for International Development (no more foreign aid)
Constitutional reform- Abolish Lords, end FPTP and more referendums. Importance:
Common for people to view UKIP as going extinct, they polled just 1% in April 2018- 6% in March 2019!
Suffered heavy losses in all recent elections- No MPs, only a handful of councillors. 13% in 2015 to 2% in 2017.
Only 1 member in Welsh and London Assemblies. Look to get very little in 2019
BUT… they can be seen as actually the most important political party in recent years, it is very unlikely we would have had an EU referendum without them, and even less likely Leave would have won without them.
So they have been hugely important in shaping national policy- Labour and Tory are now both Pro-Brexit.
Unlikely to ever improve again due to Brexit party Green Policies:
Referendum on final Brexit deal- Very Pro-European.
Introduction of a 4 day week
Scrap tuition fees
New Wealth tax on top 1%
Renationalise rail, energy, water, buses and Royal Mail
Votes at 16 and abolish FPTP
Increase minimum wage to living wage
Ban fracking and replace all power stations with renewable energy- 100bn climate fund Importance
The Green party only have one MP, and have no majority control over any councils.
They have made environmental policies much more important- all major parties now dedicate parts of their manifesto to the environment.
They have lost support due to the now newly left wing Labour Party occupying much of the same space as them Brexit Party Policies:
Reform Constitution- Abolish FPTP, House of Lords and make Supreme Court Judges a political appointment. More Referendums!
Hard Brexit, with a tough Australian Style Points system of immigration
Cut Foreign aid budget.
Abolish inheritance tax
Cut Vat and Fuel tax
Reduce tariffs
Cut Corporation tax for small companies
Reject privitisation of NHS
Reform Universal Credit and improve benefits Importance:
They won the European Elections! So are the largest UK Party in the EU- 30%
They arguably led to Theresa May resigning and being replaced by the more Leave leaning Boris Johnson.
BUT…. Farage not running in Tory seats in 2019 means they are only running in half of the seats possible. Is that important?
Lots of Brexit candidates h stood down to help Conservatives- Rees Mogg’s sister!
Have they achieved their mission already- BoJo is supporting their plan for Brexit?
Only got 2% of the vote and no MPs. But helped Tories win in Labour Leave seats?
Are minor parties important or not?
Important Not
Help to make policies more mainstream and important- Environment (Green) the EU (UKIP.
Can help to lead Govts. In coalitions or Supply and Confidence deals (DUP in 2017)
Can take votes away from major parties and affect the results (UKIP took votes from Labour in 2015, Brexit in 2019)
Can dominate national politics- SNP in Scotland
Can dominate European Politics- UKIP won in 2015 and Brexit Party in 2019
Bee Sting Theory- Once a minor party has an impact, the major parties steal their ideas, so the minor party then loses support. (UKIP between 2015 and 2017)
Never have a realistic chance of winning power.
Are not well represented due to voting system (only 11% of seats in 2017).
Will fail if too similar to a large party (Green lost votes to Labour in 2017)
Due to FPTP they can stand down to help similar parties (Remain alliance in 2019 and Brexit Party standing down in Tory Seats)
2.4. UK political parties in context Party Systems: One- When there is only one choice of party (China) Dominant- When only one party has a chance of winning (SNP in Scotland in 2015) Two- When only two parties have a realistic chance of winning/serious representation (Tory and Labour in England) Three- When only three parties have a chance of winning/serious representation (UK in 2015- Tory/Labour/SNP) Multi- When multiple parties have significant representation (Wales and N.Ireland. REMEMBER- VOTING SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THIS Adversary vs Consensus Politics: Adversary: Period of Politics where there is wide disagreement over key principles and policies. Can be seen in 1980s between Thatcher and Labour, also seen between Corbyn’s Labour and Tories post 2015. Consensus: Period of Politics where there is agreement over key principles, but some minor disagreement on policy. Can be seen in post war consensus 1945-1979, where Labour and Tories agreed on new nationalization and welfare state. Also seen in Post Thatcher consensus of 1997-2015, agreeing on policies of low taxation and neo-liberal policies.
1.3 Electoral Systems 3.1 Different Electoral Systems FPTP- Features and Working- PLURALITY SYSTEM
Country is divided into constituencies- 650
Each constituency elects one Member of Parliament
Each Party puts forward one candidate in each constituency
Every constituent gets one vote for one MP
The winner has to achieve the most votes, not a majority. This is called a plurality.
Safe Seats: Some constituencies always return the same party. It is estimated that NUMBER OF SAFE SEATS. This can disenfranchise voters and mean there are many wasted voted every year. An example is Liverpool Walton where the majority is 77%.
Marginal Seats: Some constituencies regularly change hands, and the parties have very small majorities. Voters in these seats feel like they have more power, as their vote is more likely to not be wasted. Parties will also focus on them more. For example the SNP in Fife North East have a majority of just 2 votes!
Advantages Disadvantages
Easy to understand and is counted quickly. Producing an efficient and easy result (Voting is nearly always completed by the next morning and a Govt. formed)
Gives each constituency one MP who can be contacted easily and will represent all who live in the constituency (dog poo in the parks!)
MPs can therefore clearly be held to account for the previous 5 years
Tends to produce a clear winner and a decisive Government (Only three elections since 1945 have produced hung Parliaments- 1974, 2010, 2017) 2019 was a return to form.
Helps to stop extremist parties to break into Parliament (BNP in 2010 for example)
Has been used for our history, no reason to change and step into unknown.
Outcome is never proportional or fair Look below for examples
Many wasted votes are produced 68% wasted in 2017
Safe seats and Marginal Seats mean there are votes of unequal value- Green needed 525,000 to elect one MP. Tories needed only 42,978.
Benefits parties with concentrated support- SNP got 7.4% of the seats, but 3.9% of the vote. LDs got 11.6% of the vote and 1.7% of the seats.
Encourages tactical voting, rather than democratically voting for who you support
Prevents new parties breaking in, causing inertia
Since 1945, no party has won 50% of the vote. Meaning all Governments did not actually receive a majority. Conservatives in 2015 only received 36.9% of the vote, and Labour in 2005 only received 35.2%!
FPTP has begun to fail to give decisive results, meaning it’s biggest strength no longer exists. Failed to give a storng majority in 2010, 2015, 2017. The ERS said that 2017 is the 3rd strike.
2017 results
Party % of Votes % of Seats
Tory 42.4 48.9
Labour 40 40.3
SNP 3 5.4
Lib Dem 7.4 1.8
DUP 0.9 1.5
Sinn Fein 0.7 1.1
Plaid Cymru 0.5 0.6
UKIP 1.8 0
Green 1.6 0.2
Others 1.7 0
2019 results
Party % of Votes % of Seats
Tory 43.6 56.2 (big winners bonus!)
Labour 32.2 31.1 (weirdly proportional
SNP 3.9 7.4
Lib Dem 11.6 1.7
DUP 0.8 1.2
Sinn Fein 0.6 1.1
Plaid Cymru 0.6 0.6
SDLP (NI party) 0.4 0.3
Green 2.7 0.2
Alliance (NI party) 0.4 0.2
YouGov suggested 1/3rd of voters voted tactically. Conservatives won an extra 48 seats, but only gained an extra 1.4% of the vote. 57% of seats and 43.6% of
votes. Lots of wasted votes again- estimated 70% wasted… even worse, 95% of votes for Labour in Scotland were
wasted (just 1 seat won). Lib Dems got screwed again! 11.5% of the vote and 1.7% of the seats. AMS- Features and Working- HYBRID SYSTEM
Each voter has two votes- One for constituency (done under FPTP, electing individual) One for Regional List (done under list system, electing party)
2/3rds of Seats are FPTP and constituency based, 1/3rd are Regional List, with elected MSPs being attached to larger regions. Safe seats can exist therefore, but List vote makes up for it.
After the votes are counted, using the D’hondt method it is worked out how many top up MPs each party needs to be more proportional. The List seats are then allocated. Parties who do badly in constituencies but well regionally therefore gain seats.
The top up system is used to make the result more proportional
Advantages Disadvantages
Produces a broadly proportional result, so is a fair system (look at table below)
Gives voters a second vote that does not have the problem of safe seats, so no tactical voting (all votes are counted in list system)
Means all voters still have a constituency MP keeping link and accountability.
Produces two classes of representative- List MPs tend to be senior. Confusion therefore for accountability.
More complex as voters have two votes.
Can result in election of extremist parties.
More likely to result in minority and coalition Governments (SNP have only ever had a tiny majority- no strong Govts. Produced- minority in 2016)
One vote is still under the disproportional FPTP system
Scotland 2016 results
Party % of Constituency Votes % of Seats
Tory 22.9 24
Labour 19.1 18.6
SNP 41.7 48.8
Lib Dem 5.2 3.9
Green 6.6 4.7
Others 4.5 0
STV- Features and Working- PROPORTIONAL SYSTEM
There is a constituency system, but each constituency has 6 seats
Each Party can put in 6 candidates, but they usually put in 4 or less (as they’ll never win 100% of the votes)
Voters place candidates in order of preference 1, 2, 3 etc. Lots of choice
An electoral quota is worked out, to establish how many votes a candidate needs to be one of the six MPs (using Droop Formula)
All first preferences are counted and if any candidate reaches the quota they are elected.
The second and subsequent preferences of the elected candidate are then added to the other candidates. Process is repeated until 6 MPs have been elected
Advantages Disadvantages
Produces a proportional result (use below for evidence)
Gives voters a wide choice and ensures they don’t need to tactically vote, as they can rank candidates in order.
Voters have option to vote for multiple parties, or just one.
Allows small parties to be elected- People Before Profit won 2 in 2016
As there are 6 MPs there should be at least one you voted for No wasted votes. Clear support
It is a very complex system that can be hard to understand
The voting takes a long time to count (2016 took several days)
Can help extremist candidates
As there are 6 MPs- accountability is not clear- who represents the constituency?
Likely to result in minority/coalition Govt.
N.Ireland 2016 results
Party % of 1st Pref. Votes % of Seats
DUP 29.2 35.2
Sinn Fein 24 25.9
UUP 12.6 14.8
SDLP 12 11.1
Alliance 7 7.4
Others 15.2 5.6
SV- Features and Working- MAJORITY SYSTEM
Used to elect a single candidate and ensure they have majority support
Voters have two choices: First and Second preference.
If a candidate receives 50% of first perferences they win.
If they don’t all candidates are removed except top two, all second preferences are then divvied up and the candidate with over 50% wins! With an overall majority of first and second preferences.
Advantages Disadvantages
Winning candidate will always have majority support (Sadiq Khan can claim over 50% of Londoners wanted him to be Mayor).
Simple to understand just two preferences
Voters don’t need to tactically vote, as their second preference will be counted.
Winning candidates have a false majority as they win on second preferences
Winning candidate will not always have a majority of first preferences.
Voters still need to tactically vote with their second preference.
If your first and second preference were not in the top 2, your vote is wasted.
May embolden extremists- Britain First 30,000
2016 Mayoral results
Candidate Party 1st Votes % 2nd votes added %
Sadiq Khan Labour 1,148,716 44.2 1,310,143 56.8
Zac Goldsmith Tory 909,755 35 994, 614 43.2
Sian Berry Green 150,673
Caroline Pidgeon Lib Dem 120,005
Peter Whittle UKIP 94,373
Others Various 173,439
3.2 Referendums and how they are used Why referendums may be held:
An issue may be very divisive and a referendum can help to settle the issue: 1975 and 2016 EU referendums
An issue may have a large constitutional impact so will need popular support: 1997 devolution referendums and Scottish Independence referendum 2014.
Can entrench and safeguard changes, ensuring they can’t be easily reversed: NI referendum on peace deal 1998
To judge public opinion: Local referendums like Edinburgh in 2005.
Year Reason held Question Results Turnout
1975 Labour Party were divided on the issue
Should the UK remain a member of the European Community?
Yes- 67.2% No-32.8%
64.5%
1997 Needed popular consent and it would help to embed change
Should additional powers be devolved to Scotland and a Scottish Parliament established?
Yes- 74.3% No-25.7%
60.4%
1997 Needed popular consent and it would help to embed change
Should additional powers be devolved to Wales and a Welsh Assembly established?
Yes- 67.2% No-32.8%
50.1%
1998 Required support from whole country in order to stop violence of the Troubles and embed peace
Should the Belfast agreement be implemented?
Yes- 71.7% No-28.9%
81.0%
2004 Needed popular consent and it would help to embed change
Should additional powers be devolved to NE England and a regional assembly established?
Yes- 22.1% No-77.9%
47.7%
2005 Was a controversial proposal Should a congestion charge zone be introduced in Edinburgh?
Yes- 25.6% No-74.4%
61.7%
2011 Was a promise to Lib Dems in Coalition agreement- and would be a large change
Should the UK adopt the alternative vote system for General Elections?
Yes- 32.1% No-67.9%
42.2%
2014 A fundamental constitutional question that needed popular support
Should Scotland become a completely independent country?
Yes- 44.7% No-55.3%
84.6%
2016 A fundamental constitutional question. To stop splits of Conservative Party. To deal with challenge of UKIP
Should the UK remain a member of the EU?
Yes- 48.1% No-51.9%
72.2%
Impact of recent referendums
The devolution referendums of 1997 for Labour helped to confirm their changes and ensured that no future Government could get rid of the changes.
When the public vote against a Government it can cause problems: It can embarrass and change the valence of a party as with Labour in 2004 or it can cause a Government to essentially fall as happened in 2016 and David Cameron resigning.
It can also have big impacts on voting behaviour and party loyalty: o 2014 Scottish referendum led to many voters turning away from Labour as they campaigned with
the Tories to keep Scotland in the UK. Instead many turned to the SNP who then won 56/59 seats. o 2016 EU Referendum essentially stopped UKIP being a large political party, as Brexit was now
accepted, many UKIP voters went back to Labour and Tory.
Advantages Disadvantages
Purest form of direct democracy- demonstrating the will of the people. Rather than just the will of elected representatives.
Referendums can mend and settle rifts in society with a decisive result- 1998 NI referendum
Referendums can also solve splits and conflcits within the political system- EU referendums of 1975 and 2016
Help to embed and protect changes that are popularly supported- Devolution 1997
Due to the new wave of media and political education, you could argue people are now more well informed and therefore capable of making informed decisions on issues Turnout of 2014 and 2016 referendums was high
Some issues are too complex and difficult for the public to make an informed decision- no voter understood all the consequences and complications of the EU referendum.
Referendums can actually exaggerate social divisions- EU Referendum led to death of Jo Cox MP and rise in hate crime.
Referendums can undermine our representative democracy.
Represents the ‘tyranny of the majority’. As the result is never proportional it is either yes/no. 48.1% of people wanted to remain and they are not represented.
Due to complicated/emotional issues- media and lies can have a large impact- £350 million bus.
Many questions cannot simply be reduced to a yes/no answer- 2011 AV referendum. Many voted no, but wanted a change from FPTP
3.3 Electoral System analysis What are the systems good at/compared:
System Party System
Government Voter Choice Fairness Proportionality
FPTP Tends to two parties
Strong Government with majority usually
Little choice- one vote and many safe seats leads to tactical voting
Votes have unequal value due to concentrated/dispersed support.- Unlikely to have majority support
Very disproportional
AMS Multi-Party
Difficult for one party to gain a majority- Minority or Coalition
Voters have two votes.
Fewer wasted votes due to second vote.
Outcome is reasonably proportional
STV Multi-Party
Majority Government nearly impossible- Coalition
Voters have many choice and rank candidates in order.
Extremely fair due to number of preferences
Outcome is very proportional
SV Tends to two parties
Would lead to a strong Government
Two preferences of candiates
Although two choices- still lots of wasted votes- and winner always has majority support.
Outcome is not proportional. But majority will support winner.
Positives and Negatives of UK elections
Positives Negatives
Very little corruption. Electoral fraud is rare and swiftly dealt with. Secret ballots.
Constituencies allow clear representation of citizens.
Held on a regular basis, no have to be held very 5 years.
Wide and fair suffrage
FPTP is unrepresentative and unfair.
Small parties are rare in our mainly two party system
Governments are never supported by the majority.
Turnout is relatively low in recent years.
Very peaceful elections- clear winners and losers.
Allows MPs to be held to account
Devolved regions have proportional systems
Should FPTP be replaced?
Replace Retain
The ERS said that FPTP has had its third strike and can no longer be trusted to provide a majority Government (2010, 2015, 2017)
Produces a very unproptional outcome compared to other systems.
Leads to safe and marginal seats.
Too many wasted votes.
Government never have majority support.
Tried and tested system with widespread support- AV Referendum of 2011.
Retains a strong constituency link that is weakened in other systems- AMS and STV- not clear who your MP is. Allows for clear accountability.
Tends to produce strong Governments (besides recent years)
Replacing it will allow small and extremist parties to get in- BNP
Simple and easy to use.
Unit 1.4 Voting Behaviour and the Media 4.1 Case Studies of Three elections Social/Demographic factors: Class
Class type Description
AB Higher Managerial (Director, Lawyer, Doctor, Senior Executive)
C1 Professional occupations (Teachers, Managers, Social Workers)
C2 Skilled Manual (Plumber, Train Driver, Mechanic)
DE Unskilled or Unemployed (Labourer, Call Centre) Trend: Seen to be very important pre-1970s, but gradually become less important. DE and C1 more likely to vote Labour and ABC1 more likely to vote Tory
Year %AB Voting Conservative
1964 78
1987 57
1997 59
2010 40
2015 45
2017 43
2019 45
Key terms:
Partisan Dealignment- As class has become less important so too has the attachment to Labour and Tory as seen in decline in voting.
Deviant voting- Voters who vote against their class- Working Class Tories or Middle Class Labourites. Age Trend: Seen to gradually becoming much more important with 2017 seeing a huge difference in age voting 18-40 more likely to vote Labour, 40+ more likely to vote Tory.
Age Range 1979 1997 2010 2015 2017 2019
18-24 Con +1 Lab +12 Lab +1 Lab +16 Lab +49 Lab +35
25-34 Con +5 Lab +11 Con +1 Lab +3 Lab +36 Lab +31
35-44 Con+11 Lab +10 Con +5 Draw Lab +20 Lab +16
45-54 / Lab +10 Con +2 Con +3 Con +1 Con +6
55-64 Con +9 Lab +3 Con +5 Con +6 Con +14 Con +21
65+ / Lab +5 Con +13 Con +24 Con +36 Con +35
Overall (in Election)
Con +7 Lab +12 Con +7 Con +7 Con +2 Con+11
Year %DE Voting Labour
1964 64
1987 53
1997 59
2010 40
2015 41
2017 59
2019 39
Gender Trend: Does not seem to affect voting too much with most elections being very similar between men and women except with Thatcher in 1979 and 1983, Women voted Conservative much more. See below for more evidence
Year Men Women Difference
1992 Con +4 Con +10 6
1997 Lab +14 Lab +12 2
2001 Lab +10 Lab +9 1
2005 Draw Lab +4 4
2010 Con +10 Con +5 5
2015 Con +8 Con +4 4
2017 Con +3 Lab +2 5
2019 Con +15 Con +9 6 Region Trends:
Scotland was solidly Labour but has been mainly SNP for 2015 and 2017 (37% in 2017, 50% in 2015)
Wales, North and London all dominated by Labour (48.9% in Wales, 53% in North, 54% in Greater London)
South East and South West dominated by Tories and Midlands less so (51.4 in SW and 53.8% in SE) Ethnicity Trends:
BME Voters likely to side with Labour for historical laws against discrimination as well as fact BME tend to be lower on social class scale.
However, some immigrant communities such as Indians and Jewish peoples are more likely to vote Tory.
David Cameron did best to attract BME voters in 2010 and 2015.
Year BME voting Labour BME voting Tory BME voting Lib Dems
1997 70 18 9
2010 60 16 20
2015 65 23 4
2017 65 21 6
2019 64 20 12 Short term Voting trends/theories: Floating voters: Voters not influenced by social factors but rather other factors and therefore change their vote each election Valence Valence is essentially how far you like/trust the vibe of the party, and this is based on a number of factors:
Governing Competence: Does the party appear to make good decisions? Are they decisive and do they/did they govern well? Tories were bad at this in 1997 and Labour were bad in 2010.
Economic Competence: Can the party be trusted to look after the economy? Tories were seen as not being able to after Black Wednesday in 1992 and Labour weren’t after crash of 2008 (Both lost elections)
Party Unity: If the party aren’t united they can’t be trusted to run the country- Labour in the 1980s suffered from this and so did Tories in 2000s
Party leaders: Can they be trusted and are they respected? Clegg was respected in 2010, but not in 2015 hence massive loss in votes. Miliband seen as less strong than Cameron in 2015
Rational Choice When voters make their decision based on what policies are most important to them (Salient issues) and who has the best ones.
In 2015 Economy and Immigration were seen as two most salient points so Tories won
In 1997 NHS and Education were seen as two most salient points so Labour won
In 2017 while Brexit was most salient it was closely followed by NHS and Cuts, hence surprising gains for Labour.
In 2019 Brexit was most salient, with Economy second, hence Tory win. Issue Voting: Two types- based purely on one issue/policy Instrumental is when you vote out of self interest. Expressive is when you vote for the benefit of others.
Students voting for Labour in 2017 due to tuition fees pledge
Middle classes voting for Labour in 1997 due to New Labour policies of low taxes. Economic influences Linking to Valence, if the economic situation of a country is good the Government tends to win, if it is bad they tend to lose.
Labour’s 1978-79 Winter of Discontent made sure they lost in May 1979 Election.
Tories Black Wednesday and recession of 1990s ensured Labour won in 1997.
Financial crisis of 2008 ensured Labour lost in 2010. Party leaders Linking to media, the party leader has become much more important when it comes down to motivating voters.
Margaret Thatcher was seen as strong and decisive and had a good record in her wins of 1983 and 1987.
Tony Blair has excellent communication skills and was very good on Tv and other media in 1997, 2001 and 2005.
John Major was seen as weak and unable to control his party when losing in 1997
Gordon Brown was seen as weak and poor at communicating in 2010
Ed Miliband was seen as weak and nerdy in 2015 loss.
Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn had role reversals in 2017 which helped to change result.
2019, BoJo seen as much better than Jeremy Corbyn Media Media comes in three forms: Broadcasting: Broadcasters by law have to remain neutral, but due to the live interviews and debates they can still be decisive in swaying voters:
Ed Miliband was seen to have performed poorly in 2015- ‘Hell Yes I’m Tough Enough’
Theresa May lost much of her authority in poor media appearances after social care u-turn and refusing to turn up to debates.
Nick Clegg did very well in 2010 debates to help Lib Dem Polls (but Lib Dems still lost seats that election)
Debates were seen as quite dull in 2019, so no big change to anything. Press: Our newspapers do not need to be impartial can be seen to be very biased in their reporting, however 2017 suggests their influence is reducing.
Newspapers previouslt helped to se the agenda and ensured we remembered events- 1979 ‘Crisis what Crisis?’
Newspapers such as the Sun have previously launched successful campaigns against Labour leaders- Neil Kinnock in 1992 and Ed Miliband in 2015 (Both lost elections).
Newspapers help to influence valence
Look at 1997 and 2017 case studies for stats.
In 2017 Corbyn managed to overcome bad press to improve (Remember front page- Cor-Bin)
Social Media: Relatively new on the scene, adverts on Facebook, Twitter and Snapchat are becoming much more important.
In 2015 Tories outspent Labour on Social Media in key marginals.
2017 saw massive social media campaign from Labour and groups such as Momentum: o 39% of 18-24 said Facebook and Twitter are their main forms of information in 2017 election. 50%
said Social Media was most important factor on vote. o This Momentum video was watched 5.4 million times on Facebook in just two days!
2019 Social Media dominated by Labour with higher spending, follows, retweets etc. Yet… Tories still win the election!
CASE STUDIES: 1979 Context:
■ Labour limped into the election, as they lost a vote of confidence (More than half the House of Commons said they had no confidence in the Government)
■ This meant they had to have a vote!
■ Occurred less than 6 months after the winter of discontent:
■ Bins ■ Electricity ■ Can’t bury the dead!
Result:
Party Seats won Change % of Votes won Change
Conservative 339 +63 43.9 +8.1
Labour 269 -50 36.9 -2.3
Liberal 11 +1 13.8 -4.5
Others 16 +5 5.4 -1.4 Turnout 76% Gender:
Party Men Women
Conservative 43 47
Labour 40 35
Liberal 13 15 Age:
Party 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+
Conservative 42 43 46 47
Labour 41 38 35 38
Liberal 12 15 15 13 Class:
Party ABC1 C2 DE
Conservative 59 41 34
Labour 24 41 49
Liberal 15 15 13 C2 is a massive change! Was 26% Tory and 49% Labour in 1974- Partisan Dealignment had begun. Other Factors:
Valence Labour were seen to not be able to control trade unions, had ruined economy, were chaotic (had lost vote of no confidence) and were anti aspiration
Tories were seen to be the party of aspiration and James Callaghan said there ahd been a ‘sea change’ for Mrs. Thatcher
Winter of Discontet was the winter before the election.
Economic Economy was stagnating- Inflation was up to 28%.
Labour had to go to the IMF for a loan in 1976- embarrassing.
‘Crisis what Crisis?’
Media Sun came out very strongly Anti-Labour with headlines of ‘Crisis what Crisis?’
Saatchi and Saatchi made the adverts/posters for Tories. The advert Labour Isn’t Working was seen to win the election.
Policies Labour said it would impose a pay freeze, but they had already failed to do this.
Tories said they would cut tax to help economy.
Party Leaders
James Callaghan was seen as much more popular being 20% ahead of Thatcher BUT still lost election.
1997 Context:
■ 18 years of Conservative rule- Tories were now led by John Major who possessed a very small majority. He was seen as weak with Tory MPs trying to dictate the laws and the problem of Europe was splitting the Party. “Weak, Weak, Weak”
■ Tory Party was seen as incompetent (Black Wednesday in 1992) and sleaze riddled (sex scandals and cash for questions)
■ Labour had been transformed by Tony Blair into New Labour. They were the new Centrist Party and looked set to win- with polls having them ahead for a long time (ahead since 1993)
1997 Results- All are % percentages
Party Vote Change
Labour 44 +9
Conservative 31 -12
Lib Dem 17 -1
Other 7 +3.4 It was a landslide! Labour won 418 seats compared to 165 Tory seats! Gender
Party Men Women
Labour 45 44
Conservative 31 32
Lib Dem 17 28 Age
Age Labour Tory Lib Dem
18-24 49 27 16
25-34 49 28 16
35-44 48 28 17
45-54 41 31 20
55-64 39 36 17
65+ 41 36 17 Class
Class Labour Tory Lib Dem
AB 31 41 6
C1 37 37 8
C2 50 27 7
DE 59 21 7 Region
Region Labour Tory Lib Dem
Scotland 45 18 13
North 61 22 13
Yorks and Humb 52 28 16
North West 54 27 14
Wales 55 20 12
West Midlands 48 34 14
East Midlands 48 35 13
East Anglia 38 39 18
South West 26 37 31
South East 32 41 21
Greater London 49 31 15 Newspaper
Paper Labour Tory Lib Dem
The Express (Tory) 29 49 16
Daily Mail (Tory) 29 49 14
Daily Mirror (Labour) 72 14 11
Daily Telegraph (Tory) 20 57 17
FT (Labour) 29 48 19
Guardian (Labour) 67 8 22
Independent (Labour) 47 16 30
Daily Star (Labour) 66 17 12
The Sun (Labour) 52 30 12
The Times (Neutral) 28 42 25 Ethnicity
Ethnicity Labour Tory Lib Dem
White 43 32 18
All Non-White 70 18 9
Asian 66 22 9
Black 82 12 5 Other Factors:
Valence Tories had been in power for 18 years
Tories were seen as party of sleaze (Sex scandals, Cash for Questions. The party of economic incompetence (Black Wednesday) and divided over Europe
Labour had been transformed into the new and exciting New Labour
They were seen as the option for change, united by a modern vision and trustworthy (Pledge card) and having overcome problems of 1970s.
Labour had been ahead in polls since 1993
Economic Tories had seen the demise of the economy, after Black Wendesday in 1992.
The country was in recession
Taxes had been raised.
Media Look at how nearly all papers supported Labour- even the Sun!
But traditional Tory papers did not manage to convince their voters.
Massive broadcasting campaign ‘Things Can Only Get Better’
Policies Most important policy areas were NHS and Education- Labour were seen to be best on these.
Tories focused on defence, but no voters were that interested.
Labour had pledge cards of how they would: Cut class sizes, not raise tax, cut NHS waiting times, stopping youth crime and funds to get under 25 Year Olds off benefits.
Party Leaders
Blair was seen as a young dynamic leader who had a rating of +45
John Major was seen as weak, and unable to command the country had a rating of -20
2017 Context:
■ There was not supposed to be a general election until 2020.
■ Theresa May announces the election as a massive surprise on 18th of April (Just after Easter Weekend)
■ She has a poll lead of +20 over Labour who were seen as divided and led by the hopeless Jeremy Corbyn
■ She said the election was for ensuring Brexit had a strong mandate and to strengthen her hand in negotiating.
■ Everyone thought this was an open goal for Theresa May- Like 1997 for Labour- everyone believed that campaigns change nothing.
Results-
Party Vote Change
Labour 40 +5.5
Conservative 42.4 +9.6
Lib Dem 7.4 -0.5
Other 10.2 / Hung Parliament!!! Theresa May loses her majority! SHOCK! Gender
Party Men Women
Labour 40 42
Conservative 44 43
Lib Dem 7 8 Age
Age Labour Tory Lib Dem
18-24 62 27 5
25-34 56 27 9
35-44 49 33 10
45-54 40 43 7
55-64 34 51 7
65+ 25 61 7 Class
Class Labour Tory Lib Dem
AB 37 47 10
C1 40 44 7
C2 41 45 6
DE 47 38 5
Doesn’t show it, but massive swings to Labour in AB and C1 Region
Region Labour Tory Lib Dem
Scotland 28.6 27.1 6.8 (SNP-36.9)
North East 55.4 34.4 4.6
Yorks and Humb 49 40.5 5.0
North West 54.9 36.2 5.4
Wales 48.9 33.6 4.5 (PC- 10.4)
West Midlands 42.5 49 4.4
East Midlands 40.5 50.7 4.3
East Anglia 54.6 32.7 7.9
South West 29.1 51.4 14.9
South East 28.6 53.8 10.5
Greater London 33.1 54.5 8.8 Newspaper
Paper Labour Tory Lib Dem
The Express (Tory) 15 77 /
Daily Mail (Tory) 17 74 3
Daily Mirror (Labour) 68 19 3
Daily Telegraph (Tory) 12 79 6
FT (Tory) 39 40 14
Guardian (Labour) 73 8 12
Independent (Neutral) 66 15 12
Daily Star (Neutral) 49 38 6
The Sun (Tory) 30 59 3
The Times (Tory) 24 58 14 Ethnicity
Ethnicity Labour Tory Lib Dem
White 39 45 8
BME 73 19 6 Other Factors:
Valence Before:
Tory party were seen as: o Strong and Stable o Would help to put through Brexit o Were united behind Theresa May
Labour Party were seen as: o Back to Lefty old ways (the
1970s!) o Weak leader o Divided party
After:
Tory party were seen as: o Weak and Wobbly o Indecisive o Not willing to debate
Labour Party were seen as: o Listening to the people o Having a strong leader o Momentum was with them
Events of Campaign
Theresa May U-Turn on Social Care: May announced that if you earned over a certain amount you would need to pay for social care- and there would be no cap.This was unpopular and deemed the ‘dementia tax’ this was then reversed..
Terror attacks: Would usually help Tories who were strong on defence, but instead made people focus on cuts to police, which Tories had done. Allowed Labour to make their spending plans look patriotic. (REMEMBER THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE THE BREXIT ELECTION!)
Debates/Media: Theresa May ran away from all one on one debates (had become tradition by that point) Jeremy Corbyn came across very well in appearances and helped to improve his standing.
Economic Wages had begun to decline which influenced many to vote against the tories
Inflation also up
Media Seem to have less of an impact than usual- FT and Sun have many Labour voters despite recommendations.
Social Media election- 39% of 18-24 said Facebook and Twitter are their main forms of information in 2017 election. 50% said Social Media was most important factor on vote
Policies Theresa May wanted the main policy area to be Brexit, nbut NHS and education were also seen as important.
While Tories were seen as better on Brext, Labour were seen as better on NHS and Education.
Labour’s manifesto did well with anti-austerity, public spending and tuition fees promise.
Party Leaders
Initially May enjoyed a healthy lead, but as campaign wore on Corbyn began to catch up before overtaking her before the election.
Ruth Davidson leader of Scottish Conservatives was very popular and did very well in Scotland
2019 Context:
■ There was not supposed to be a general election until 2024.
■ Boris Johnson became Prime Minister in July 2019 after the resignation of T May.
■ He inherited her lack of majority and found it very difficult to pass legislation- didn’t win a vote for his first 6 weeks
■ He renegotiated the Brexit Deal, to get rid of the backstop (rather N.Ireland would stay in the customs union) but wasn’t able to get it passed.
■ He therefore asked for an election to be held and the opposition parties agreed. Despite Johnson enjoying a lead in the polls (average of 10%)
■ Johnson had boosted polling due to dedication to Brexit (prorogue of Parliament etc.)
Results-
Party Vote Change Seats
Labour 32.2 -7.8 202 (-60)
Conservative 43.6 +1.2 365 (+48)
Lib Dem 11.6 +4.2 11 (-1)
Other 12.6 /
SNP improve and got 48/59 Scottish seats. Brexit Party receive 2% of the vote and Green Party 2.7% Gender
Party Men Women
Labour 31 35
Conservative 46 44
Lib Dem 12 11 Age
Age Labour Tory Lib Dem
18-24 56 21 11
25-34 54 23 12
35-44 46 30 14
45-54 35 41 13
55-64 28 49 12
60-69 22 57 11
70+ 14 67 11 Crossover point in 2017 was 47, now in 2019 it is 39 Class
Class Labour Tory Lib Dem
AB 32 42 16
C1 34 43 12
C2 31 (-10! Huge drop) 49 9
DE 34 (-13! Huge drop) 47 (+9!) 8 Huge changes in C2 and DE! Brexit and new working class Conservatives! Region
Region Labour Tory Lib Dem
Scotland 28.6 27.1 6.8 (SNP-36.9)
North East 42.6 (-12!) 38.3 7.9
Yorks and Humb 38.8 (-10!) 43 8
North West 46.4 (-7.6!) 37.6 7.9
Wales 48.9 33.6 4.5 (PC- 10.4)
West Midlands 33.9 (-8.6) 53.5 7.9
East Midlands 31.8 (-8.6!) 54.9 7.8
East Anglia 24.5% (-8.3!) 57.2 13.4
South West 23.3 52.9 18.1
South East 22.1 54.2 18.3
Greater London 48.1 32 14.9 Ethnicity
Ethnicity Labour Tory Lib Dem
White 29 48 12
BME 64 20 12 Other Factors:
Valence Tory party were seen as united behind the new enthusiastic leader in Boris Johnson. Seen as getting Brexit done (New Deal, kicking Tories out, proroguing Parliament)
Labour still seen as divided (lots of MPs stepping down instead of supporting Corbyn, even deputy leader Tom Watson stood down!) Seen as un-patriotic due to numerous events since 2017- Salisbury Poisoning, Nuclear deterrenc etc. Labour also seen as anti-semitic and anti-Brexit.
Events of Campaign
Tories went in expecting a majority and very little occurred to change this!
Debates/Media: Corbyn refused to apologise for anti-semitism on Andrew Neill interview. BoJo didn’t even go. Debates were seen as repetitive and poor- Corbyn focusing on NHS and BoJo focusing on Brexit
Media Majority of papers backed Boris Johnson and the Conservatives as always. Only Daily Mirror and Guardian back Labour.
Social Media dominated by Labour with higher spending, follows, retweets etc. Yet… Tories still win the election!
Policies Labour’s manifesto was very similar to 2017, so lacked any real impact…. Second referendum used to please both sides, but seen as un-decisive. Embarrassing moment where Corbyn claimed he would be neutral in the event of a referendum.
Big focus on NHS and Education, but salience of Brexit was higher.
Conservative’s manifesto was light on detail, main focus was ‘Get Brexit Done’. After chaos of Brexit it became an attractice policy.
Party Leaders
Jeremy Corbyn was historically unpopular (-50…) Boris Johnson was unpopular but much less so (-10) and was seen as backing Brexit (after leading 2016 campaign)
4.2 The influence of the media
See above for influence of Newspapers, TV and Social Media. Opinion Polls Opinion polls are taken throughout to gauge the mood of the public- main companies are YouGov, Survation, and Ipsos-Mori. Problems:
Media pay massive attention to them and make them front page news which can influence
Opinion polls have incorrectly predicted 2015, 2017 and 2016 referendum.
Voters can change due to polls: o The likelihood of a Labour SNP coalition was exaggerated by polls in 2015 and may have caused
people to vote Tory. o The low polling of Labour may have made Tory voters not vote in 2017 and made Labour voters who
didn’t like Corbyn not worry about him winning. o Can affect turnout
Parties can change due to polling- May U-turn on social care.
Ban Polls Keep Polls
They can influence the way people vote as seen in 2015 election.
They have been inaccurate and misled public.
They affect politicians and campaigns too much.
Allow Media to obsess and claim things without real evidence
Would infringe on freedom of expression
If banned only private organisations will be able to use them and profit from them (can predict economic changes)
Polls help to guide and inform politicians.
Would still be published abroad
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