transit strategy report - moving forward

Moving Forward Transit Strategy Report

Moving Forward –Transit Strategy Report

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Table of Contents 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1-1

Objectives ........................................................................................................................... 1-1

Approach ............................................................................................................................ 1-2

2. Background ........................................................................................................................ 2-1

Existing Transit Network .................................................................................................... 2-1

Travel Trends and Challenges .......................................................................................... 2-2

Planning Context ............................................................................................................. 2-10

Transit Objectives ........................................................................................................... 2-15

3. Transit Network Planning .................................................................................................. 3-1

Network Scenarios ............................................................................................................ 3-1

Service Hour Targets ......................................................................................................... 3-9

Bus Requirements .......................................................................................................... 3-10

GRT Route Hierarchy ...................................................................................................... 3-12

Service Levels ................................................................................................................. 3-13

New Services and Infrastructure ................................................................................... 3-14

Implementation Phasing ................................................................................................ 3-18

Network Performance .................................................................................................... 3-20

4. Transit Priority Measures .................................................................................................. 4-1

Guidelines for Implementing Transit Priority Measures.................................................. 4-2

Ongoing and Future Transit Priority Projects ................................................................... 4-3

5. New Service Delivery Models ............................................................................................ 5-1

Dynamic and Flexible Transit Options for Grand River Transit ....................................... 5-2

Dynamic and Flexible Transit in Other Municipalities ..................................................... 5-3

Future Service Delivery Models ........................................................................................ 5-4

6. Costs ................................................................................................................................... 6-1

Capital Costs ...................................................................................................................... 6-1

Operating Costs and Fare Revenue ................................................................................. 6-2

7. Transit Needs Beyond 2041 ............................................................................................. 7-1


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Table of Exhibits Exhibit 2.1: Map of Existing GRT Routes and GO Transit Service ............................................ 2-3

Exhibit 2.2: Map of Existing GRT Routes and GO Transit Service (Cambridge) ...................... 2-4

Exhibit 2.3: Map of Existing GRT Routes and GO Transit Service (Kitchener) ........................ 2-5

Exhibit 2.4: Map of Existing GRT Routes and GO Transit Service (Waterloo) ......................... 2-6

Exhibit 2.5: Changes in GRT Revenue Service Hours and Ridership, 2007–2018 ............... 2-8

Exhibit 2.6: Changing Mode Shares for Short (2 to 5 kilometres) Trips ................................. 2-9

Exhibit 2.7: GRT Business Plan Service Hours, Ridership, and Bus Purchases,

2017–2021 ............................................................................................................................. 2-13

Exhibit 2.8: ION Stage 2 LRT Route (as of May 2018) .......................................................... 2-14

Exhibit 2.9: Population and Employment Forecasts for the Region of Waterloo ................. 2-15

Exhibit 3.1: 2041 GRT Transit Network – Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 .................................... 3-3

Exhibit 3.2: 2041 GRT Transit Network – Recommended Scenario ....................................... 3-5

Exhibit 3.3: 2041 GRT Transit Network – Recommended Scenario (Cambridge) ................. 3-6

Exhibit 3.4: 2041 GRT Transit Network – Recommended Scenario (Kitchener) ................... 3-7

Exhibit 3.5: 2041 GRT Transit Network – Recommended Scenario (Waterloo) .................... 3-8

Exhibit 3.6: Future Bus Revenue Service Hours Required by 2041 ....................................... 3-9

Exhibit 3.7: Steps to Calculate 2041 GRT Service Hour Requirements .............................. 3-10

Exhibit 3.8: Steps to Calculate 2041 GRT Bus Fleet Requirements .................................... 3-11

Exhibit 3.9: GRT Service Growth Vehicle Purchases, 2018–2041 ...................................... 3-12

Exhibit 3.10: GRT Route Headways and Required Buses by Year, PM Peak Period,

2021–2041 ............................................................................................................................. 3-14

Exhibit 3.11: Proposed 2041 Regional Express Bus Network .............................................. 3-17

Exhibit 4.1: Transit Priority Measure Selection Framework ..................................................... 4-2

Exhibit 5.1: New Mobility Paradigm for Inter-Modal Users ....................................................... 5-4

Exhibit 6.1: Transit Capital Growth Costs by Category and Term ............................................ 6-2

Exhibit 6.2: Transit Operating Costs by Category and Year ...................................................... 6-3


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Table of Exhibits continued Exhibit 7.1: Map of Rapid Transit and Rail Corridors for Protection Beyond 2041 ................ 7-3

Exhibit 7.2: Map of Transit Corridors for Protection Beyond 2041 (Cambridge).................... 7-4

Exhibit 7.3: Map of Transit Corridors for Protection Beyond 2041 (Kitchener) ..................... 7-5

Exhibit 7.4: Map of Transit Corridors for Protection Beyond 2041 (Waterloo) ....................... 7-6

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1. Introduction The Region of Waterloo is currently updating its Transportation Master Plan (TMP), a process

that will identify transportation infrastructure needs to the year 2041. This 2018 TMP builds

upon the 2010 Regional Transportation Master Plan (RTMP), which described changes to

the Region’s transportation system up to the year 2031, and presents a plan for roads,

public transit, and active transportation that will support the Region as it grows. As with the

2010 RTMP, transit is a major component of this 2018 TMP.

Objectives

This report focuses on changes to the public transit network and related infrastructure in the

Region of Waterloo, with an emphasis on higher-order transit (GRT iXpress, ION, and GO

Transit). This report also considers the impact of land use intensification within the Region

on transit services, such as those in the Central Transit Corridor.


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Specific goals and objectives of this report include:

Reviewing and refining the 2031 higher-order transit network proposed in the 2010

RTMP;

Developing an updated transit network for the horizon year of 2041, including a

phased plan for the implementation of required changes;

Assessing the impacts, benefits, and feasibility of the proposed higher-order transit

network;

Developing a toolbox of transit priority measures and a methodology for applying these

measures to corridors and locations in the Region;

Proposing ways for the Region to use alternative transit delivery models and new

mobility options to provide service to areas that pose a challenge to conventional

transit;

Developing cost estimates for the recommended transit network; and

Identifying corridors to be protected for transit service or improvements beyond the

2041 horizon year.

Approach

The development of this transit strategy begins by identifying current and historical travel

trends within the Region, in addition to assessing the existing transit network and service for

shortcomings or gaps. Considering these findings, a transit mode share target is identified

for the plan’s horizon year of 2041. To reach this target, committed and proposed changes

identified from a number of sources are applied to the existing network to propose a future

year transit system; these sources include the 2010 RTMP, the Grand River Transit (GRT)

Business Plan 2017-2021, and the Metrolinx 2041 Regional Transportation Plan. If any

gaps still exist, additional projects are identified to provide the service needed to achieve

transit mode share targets. Further network improvements, including transit priority

measures and new service delivery models, are also added to the network to improve route

performance and provide service to new areas, respectively. These changes are then

phased, identifying horizon years over which each set of changes should be implemented,

and both capital and operating costs are calculated.

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2. Background

Existing Transit Network

Grand River Transit (GRT) provides public transit service throughout the Region of Waterloo,

specifically to the cities of Kitchener, Waterloo, and Cambridge, as well as the Townships.

GRT operates both express and conventional bus routes, as well as community and specialty

transit services using smaller vehicles. As of January 2018, GRT operated 70 routes, five of

which are branded as iXpress routes designed to provide high-frequency corridor service.

In 2019, Stage 1 of ION rapid transit will open in Kitchener and Waterloo, replacing the

existing 200 iXpress route. This consists of 19 kilometres of Light Rail Transit (LRT),

travelling between Conestoga Mall in Waterloo and Fairview Park Mall in Kitchener, paired

with 17 kilometres of adapted Bus Rapid Transit (aBRT), travelling between Fairview Park

Mall and Ainslie Street Terminal in Cambridge. There will be a total of 36 stops along the

entire ION corridor.


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In addition to GRT services, the Region of Waterloo is also served by GO Transit. Weekday

peak commuter rail service is provided between Kitchener GO Station, located in downtown

Kitchener, and Toronto’s Union Station. This service was recently expanded to run five trains

to Union Station in the morning peak period and five trains to Kitchener in the evening peak

period. GO bus routes also serve Kitchener, Cambridge, and Waterloo seven days per week,

providing connections to destinations across the GTA.

The Existing GRT and GO networks in Waterloo Region, Cambridge, Kitchener, and Waterloo

are presented in Exhibit 2.1, Exhibit 2.2, Exhibit 2.3, and Exhibit 2.4.

Travel Trends and Challenges

Since the completion of the 2010 RTMP, a number of travel trends and challenges have

been identified which provide information about how the transit network is being used and

highlight ways in which transit can be improved.

Inter-Regional Travel is Growing

Over 1 million trips begin in the Region of Waterloo every day, the majority of which (94%)

also end within the Region. However, the number of Waterloo-based trips ending in Guelph,

Toronto, Hamilton, Brantford, and other local regions and municipalities has been steadily

growing. Between 2006 and 2016, the proportion of trips ending outside the Region has

grown from under 5% to 6%, an increase of 15,000 daily trips.

The importance of this trend is twofold; first, it suggests that the market for inter-regional

travel is growing, so emphasis should be placed on providing new and improved inter-

regional transit services to draw travellers away from auto use for these trips. Second, this

trend highlights the importance of local transit (to serve the majority of Regional trips) and

improved connections between local and inter-regional transit, which can serve all travellers

in the Region.

Post-Secondary Students Make Up a Large Share of Transit Ridership

A major traveller group within the Region is post-secondary students, including those

attending the University of Waterloo, Wilfrid Laurier University, and Conestoga College.

Based on results from the Ministry of Transportation’s 2012 Post Secondary School Travel

Survey, post-secondary students have a comparatively low auto mode share (29%), while

they are frequent users of active modes (36%) and transit (35%). This high transit usage can

be attributed in part to the introduction of a universal bus pass for University of Waterloo

and Wilfrid Laurier University students – this pass is funded through mandatory student fees

and allows unlimited travel on the GRT system. Conestoga College plans to implement the

universal bus pass in 2019.


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EXHIBIT 2.1: MAP OF EXISTING GRT ROUTES AND GO TRANSIT SERVICE


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EXHIBIT 2.2: MAP OF EXISTING GRT ROUTES AND GO TRANSIT SERVICE (CAMBRIDGE)


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EXHIBIT 2.3: MAP OF EXISTING GRT ROUTES AND GO TRANSIT SERVICE (KITCHENER)


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EXHIBIT 2.4: MAP OF EXISTING GRT ROUTES AND GO TRANSIT SERVICE (WATERLOO)


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While ridership among post-secondary students is already high, it may be worthwhile to

further increase the attractiveness of transit for this group. The benefits of increasing transit

ridership among students include potentially establishing long-term transit use habits for

these individuals and growing sustainable transportation use in the Region.

Ridership Trends Highlight Growth Challenges

Since 2007, the number of annual transit service hours provided by GRT has steadily grown

from 500,000 to over 750,000. This increase in service was initially matched with annual

ridership growth, peaking at nearly 22 million riders in 2013. Although annual ridership

proceeded to decline between 2013 and 2016, as shown in Exhibit 2.5, this trend recently

reversed and ridership has grown throughout 2018. The trend of declining ridership was

observed across North American transit agencies, and was the result of a number of factors

including low gasoline prices and the emergence of new Transportation Network Companies

(TNCs)1, increasing auto use, increases in active transportation, and changes in teleworking

habits (reducing trip rates). In Waterloo Region, additional factors included:

Transit detours due to ION LRT construction;

School boards providing yellow bus transportation instead of GRT school routes;

Fare increases; and

Localized service reductions in 2013 and 2014.

In addition to historical changes in GRT ridership and service hours, it is important to

consider how transit is being used relative to other travel modes in the Region. As of 2016,

approximately 85% of work trips started by Waterloo residents were made using private

automobiles, while only 4% of these trips used transit. This suggests that more can be done

to make transit an attractive alternative to car travel for workers, such as providing more

frequent service when it is needed to reach employment destinations. Similarly, only 2% of

discretionary trips (shopping, appointments, etc.) used transit, suggesting that changes are

required to better connect travellers with non-work destinations.

1 TNCs represents the generic term used to refer to service providers of new forms for mobility where

passengers are matched with drivers using software applications accessible through mobile phones or

computers. Examples of TMCs include Uber & Lyft. TNCs are specifically referred to as Auxiliary Taxis within the

Region of Waterloo.


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EXHIBIT 2.5: CHANGES IN GRT REVENUE SERVICE HOURS AND RIDERSHIP, 2007–2018

Source: CUTA Canadian Transit Fact Books, 2007–2016, and Grand River Transit, 2017–2018

A Region-wide survey of travel behaviours, attitudes, and barriers around walking, cycling,

and public transit found that a majority of residents (approximately 68%) would be

interested in using public transit if some of their concerns are addressed. Respondents to

the survey cited the following as top barriers for not using public transit as often as they

would like:

Longer travel time to get between destinations;

Incompatibility between user and transit schedules; and

Too many connections required to get to destinations.

The significant potential to increase the use of public transit group means that all aspects of

the 2018 TMP should attempt to address these barriers. These could be achieved by

implementing strategies that:

Promote more land use intensification;

Provide direct transit routes;

Increase the speed of public transit (e.g. using measures such as transit priority to

reduce delays for transit vehicles, reducing travel times);

Invest in an all-day frequent transit network to expand the hours of service; and

Explore “first/last mile” connections from transit stops to reduce the need for

transfers.


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Transit Ridership is Peaked and Tied to Trip Length

Transit use also varies significantly by time-of-day and based on the length of trip being

taken. Average weekday transit ridership is currently peaked, which reflects peak

commuting times and student travel during morning and afternoon peak periods in the

Region. Most transit trips begin between 6 a.m. and 9 a.m. (morning peak) or 1 p.m. and 4

p.m. (afternoon peak), with a smaller subset of trips beginning around 5 p.m. Transit

ridership is generally low outside of these hours, however this may change as GRT expands

off-peak service.

The influence of trip length on transit use is also important to consider, since users may be

unwilling to wait for a low frequency bus or pay a full fare if their trip is relatively short. As

shown in Exhibit 2.6, this is reflected in travellers’ mode shares by trip length. Nearly 11% of

trips between 2 and 5 km in length were made using transit in 2016, while over 80% of the

same trips were made using private automobiles. It is worth noting that the transit mode

share for these short trips has been steadily increasing while the auto mode share has been

steadily decreasing – in 2006, less than 8% of short trips used transit, while nearly 90%

used automobiles. Increasing transit service levels may help encourage more short trips to

be made using transit, although this can be challenging given the convenience of making

short trips by car in auto-oriented, suburban environments.

EXHIBIT 2.6: CHANGING MODE SHARES FOR SHORT (2 TO 5 KILOMETRES) TRIPS

Source: Transportation Tomorrow Survey, 2006–2016 Data


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Planning Context

The 2018 TMP has been prepared with consideration given to a number of previous and

current studies and plans. Many of these plans describe existing commitments for transit

improvements, outline approved budgets and spending, and describe higher-level planning

contexts within which the 2018 TMP has been developed. Specifically, plans and projects

that have impacted the transit strategy include:

Region of Waterloo Rapid Transit Environmental Assessment;

2010 Regional Transportation Master Plan;

Regional Municipality of Waterloo 2018 Program Budget;

GRT Business Plan 2017–2021;

2018 Region of Waterloo Ten Year Capital Budget and Forecast;

Stage 2 ION: Kitchener to Cambridge; and

Other regional and provincial plans.

Region of Waterloo Rapid Transit Environmental Assessment

The ION Environmental Assessment, an essential step in the process of designing and

implementing the ION rapid transit system, was completed in 2009. This document outlines

the changes that will be required to upgrade the existing 200 iXpress bus service between

Waterloo, Kitchener, and Cambridge to a higher-quality rapid transit service. This includes

the selection of specific route segments and rapid transit technologies for this transit

corridor, as well as the impact and mitigation measures required for the rapid transit

system.

Stage 1 of ION consists of a 19 kilometre Light Rail Transit (LRT) system between Conestoga

Mall in Waterloo and Fairview Park Mall in Kitchener, and a 17 kilometre adapted Bus Rapid

Transit (BRT) system operating between Fairview Park Mall and Ainslie Street Terminal in

Cambridge. As part of this plan, future protections are in place for Stage 2 – an LRT

extension to Ainslie Street Terminal, allowing for end-to-end LRT service between Waterloo

and Cambridge. The Stage 1 ION routes are shown in Exhibit 2.1 (page 2-3), and the Stage 2

ION LRT route between Kitchener and Cambridge is shown in more detail in Exhibit 2.8

(page 2-14).


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2010 Waterloo Regional Transportation Master Plan

The 2010 RTMP was developed to achieve four goals; optimize the transportation system,

promote transportation choice, foster a strong economy, and support sustainable

development. With respect to the transit network, objectives of the plan included:

Investing in integrated public transit services to manage demand on key corridors;

Adding connections and linkages within the existing system to minimize the need for

more infrastructure;

Improving the way transit priority and other components of the transportation network

work together to reduce delays;

Encouraging and preserving opportunities for rapid transit, where appropriate; and

Continuing to support innovative approaches to expand the existing transit system.

To meet these goals and objectives, the 2010 RTMP focused on a transit-oriented plan with

strategic road improvements, developed through the use of transit mode share targets. For

the plan’s horizon year of 2031, a p.m. peak hour transit mode share target of 14.8% was

set. This meant that 14.8% of all trips taken within the Region of Waterloo would use a form

of public transit, representing a shift away from private automobile use. In addition, specific

screenline transit mode share targets were set for the 2031 p.m. peak hour, ranging

between 10% and 45% in Kitchener, Cambridge, and Waterloo.

To reach these target mode shares, the following transit projects were proposed in the 2010

RTMP to be part of the 2031 transit network:

Completing Stage 1 of ION, consisting of LRT, from Conestoga Mall to Fairview Park

Mall and adapted BRT from Fairview Park Mall to Ainslie Street Terminal, by 2016;

Growing the iXpress network throughout Waterloo, Kitchener, and Cambridge, which

included improving service frequency and adding more routes by 2021;

Developing new local routes within Waterloo, Kitchener, and Cambridge, as well as

routes to serve surrounding townships;

Improving levels of service for local routes, as well as school/university routes; and

Adding transit priority measures to intersections and corridors in the form of transit

lanes, transit signal priority, and queue jump lanes.

Beyond the 2010 RTMP’s horizon year of 2031, it was noted that local transit capacity

between Kitchener and Cambridge could be improved by extending the ION LRT into

Cambridge (replacing the adapted BRT service between Fairview Park Mall and Ainslie Street

Terminal).


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The capital and operating costs associated with service growth in the 2010 RTMP were

assessed. For the first 10 years of the plan (2012–2021), transit capital costs were

expected to be $285 M, while operating costs were expected to be about $630 M (net of

fare revenue). Over the latter 10 years of the plan (2022–2031), transit capital and

operating costs were expected to increase to $385 M and $1,050 M, respectively.

GRT Business Plan 2017–2021

The GRT Business Plan outlines transit service changes and improvements to be

implemented over the five year period between 2017 and 2021. These changes were

developed to meet interim transit ridership targets outlined in the 2010 RTMP, in addition to

supporting the following six “New Directions” initiatives outlined by GRT:

Seamless connections to ION;

New express routes running on key corridors;

More frequent service on busy routes;

More direct routes supporting a grid network;

Fast and convenient electronic fare payment; and

More comfortable rides, stops and stations.

The changes described in the GRT Business Plan would all be made when ION service starts.

With this central transit corridor in place, the Business Plan calls for the integration of

existing routes and services with ION, including better transfers as well as integrated fares

and stations. Local and iXpress route frequencies will be improved during peak periods and

midday. Routes will be adjusted to support a grid network, and new routes and route

extensions will be added to serve new growth areas and Townships over this five year plan.

This plan also calls for transitioning routes away from the Charles Terminal, which will be

phased out after 2021. Transfer opportunities would instead be provided at other Downtown

Kitchener ION stations or the forthcoming Central Station multimodal hub.

Transit ridership goals for the 2018 TMP were based on deferring the 2021 ridership target

of 28 million (set in the 2010 RTMP) to 2023. This reduces the 2021 system ridership

target to 27.3 million, a level that can be reached by expanding GRT service by 35,000

hours annually, or 4.2%. A schedule of these service changes, in addition to bus purchases

and ridership forecasts, between 2017 and 2021 is shown in Exhibit 2.7.


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EXHIBIT 2.7: GRT BUSINESS PLAN SERVICE HOURS, RIDERSHIP, AND BUS PURCHASES, 2017–2021

Attribute 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Bus Service Hours 778,000 817,000 856,000 889,000 923,000

LRT Service Hours 0 37,000 55,000 55,000 57,000

Total Service Hours 778,000 854,000 911,000 944,000 980,000

Total Ridership 20.0 M 21.8 M 24.1 M 26.0 M 27.3 M

Service Expansion Bus

Purchases

18 0 6 12 12

Source: GRT Business Plan, 2017–2021

2018 Region of Waterloo Ten Year Capital Budget and Forecast

The most recent Region of Waterloo Ten Year Capital Budget and Forecast for Transit

Services (finalized in early 2018) contains detailed expenses associated with the provision

of regional transit services from 2018 through 2027. These expenses include capital costs

such as bus purchases, station and terminal development, infrastructure improvements,

and costs associated with implementing transit priority measures. Major budget drivers and

expenses identified in the Capital Budget include:

Conventional and articulated vehicle additions;

Conventional vehicle replacements;

Construction of the Northfield Drive transit facility;

Construction of the Fairview Park Mall and Conestoga College Terminals; and

Property acquisitions.

Stage 2 ION: LRT from Kitchener to Cambridge

Public consultation, planning, and design work for ION Stage 2, which will upgrade the ION

aBRT service between Kitchener and Cambridge to LRT, is currently ongoing. This process

involves revising the LRT route proposed in the ION Environmental Assessment based on

public feedback. The new route between Fairview Park Mall and Ainslie Street Terminal in

Downtown Cambridge, shown in Exhibit 2.8, was chosen to reduce the property impacts and

acquisitions associated with this project.

Planning and design work for Stage 2 of the ION rapid transit project is ongoing, and the

route is expected to be constructed and operational by 2031.


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EXHIBIT 2.8: ION STAGE 2 LRT ROUTE (AS OF MAY 2018)

Source: Stage 2 ION: LRT from Kitchener to Cambridge, PCC 4, Public Information Package

Other Plans

Other plans produced by the Government of Ontario and Metrolinx outline growth and

transportation objectives for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH), including the Region of

Waterloo. These plans generally target horizon years out to 2041, and they have been used

to guide the development of the 2018 TMP.

The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2017), developed by the Government of

Ontario, defines locations within the GGH where growth of both population and employment

will take place in the coming years and also describes goals for transportation and

infrastructure in order to support this growth. The 2017 growth plan indicates that Uptown

Waterloo, Downtown Kitchener, and Downtown Cambridge are all urban growth centres,

while the ION rapid transit alignment between them is defined as a priority transit corridor.

These definitions are associated with minimum density targets for population and

employment in 2031, ranging between 200 residents and jobs per hectare in Downtown

Kitchener and Uptown Waterloo, to 150 residents and jobs per hectare in Downtown

Cambridge. Future population and employment forecasts have been developed by the

Region of Waterloo based on the Growth Plan – these are presented in Exhibit 2.9.


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EXHIBIT 2.9: POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS FOR THE REGION OF WATERLOO

Attribute 2016 2031 2041

Population 535,0001 675,0002 750,0002

Employment 247,0002 286,0002 316,0002

Population and Employment 782,000 961,000 1,065,000

Source: 1 Statistics Canada (2016) 2 Region of Waterloo Moderate Growth Forecast (2018)

The Metrolinx Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) describes both short-term and long-term

improvements to the transit systems in the GGH. These include increasing GO rail service

frequencies on the Kitchener line to 30 minutes during a.m. and p.m. peak times, and

eventually implementing all-day, two-way GO rail service between Kitchener and Downtown

Toronto by 2025. The RTP also proposes adding a new station on this line, between

Kitchener and Guelph in the community of Breslau.

Transit Objectives

Based on the trends and challenges identified, as well as the goals, objectives, and

planning/financial context identified in other plans, a number of objectives have been

developed for the 2018 TMP. The following three objectives specifically relate to the transit

network and service:

Improve connections to rapid transit for all modes, including providing service to low

density areas and new suburban developments;

Take advantage of the Region’s strengths as an innovation hub by using locally

developed technologies and emerging private transportation services, and exploring

opportunities through public-private partnerships; and

Support economic growth by supporting connections to destinations within and outside

Waterloo Region (connections to local and international hubs).

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3. Transit Network Planning

Network Scenarios

As part of the network evaluation process for the 2018 TMP, three network scenarios were

developed and assessed. Each scenario was based on the 2031 network proposed in the

2010 RTMP, featuring improvements and changes to the road, transit, and active

transportation networks. Based on the results of assessing these scenarios, one hybrid

scenario was recommended and carried forward.

Scenario 1: Extend the 2010 RTMP to 2041

The first network scenario developed extends the 2031 network (developed in the 2010

RTMP) to 2041. This includes projects described in the GRT Five-Year Plan, projects with

approved funding in the Region’s 10-year Transportation Capital Program, as well as

projects with a high likelihood of being funded or implemented by 2031. With a focus on


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transit, this means that investment in express and rapid transit (ION) service will be

aggressive through 2041.

A map of the potential future GRT network for Scenario 1 is presented in Exhibit 3.1.

Scenario 2: More Investment in Transit and Active Transportation

The second network scenario is based on increased investments in the transit network,

transit service, and active transportation above and beyond the recommendations of the

2010 RTMP. Transit changes that would be made to accomplish this goal include:

Developing an all-day high-frequency transit network;

Providing more frequent off-peak transit service;

Improving transit access to low-density areas; and

Protecting corridors for future rail service and ION Stage 3 routes.

Scenario 2 would specifically upgrade all route headways to 12 minutes and further upgrade

headways on high-frequency local routes and iXpress routes to 8 minutes. This would reduce

headways on frequent routes (local or iXpress) by up to 7 minutes, reduce headways on

regular local routes by up to 22 minutes, and reduce headways on custom routes (providing

specialty or township service) by up to 48 minutes. The GRT network for Scenario 2 is also

presented in Exhibit 3.1, where improved headways for different route classes are shown.

Scenario 3: New Mobility

The third scenario features new mobility options, reducing emphasis on conventional

transportation modes. These new options include car sharing, high-occupancy vehicles, on-

demand public transit services, and connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). While this

scenario was not explicitly evaluated, risks and opportunities from these new technologies

were identified, and trends in new mobility were explored to determine how best to meet the

Region’s goals. More details about this scenario and the impacts of new mobility are

provided in the Transportation Network Assessment Report and the New Mobility Report.


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EXHIBIT 3.1: 2041 GRT TRANSIT NETWORK – SCENARIO 1 AND SCENARIO 2


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Recommended Scenario

The recommended scenario was determined to be a combination of the three initial

scenarios, featuring the best elements from each one. The recommended scenario is based

on the transportation network from Scenario 1, but with the addition of significant transit

improvements and top-performing active transportation projects from Scenario 2. Further,

low-performing road projects from Scenario 1 have been deferred to reduce costs without

significantly impacting network performance. New mobility options proposed in Scenario 3

are also considered in the context of identifying risks, opportunities, and future policy

directions. The evaluation process used to develop this recommended scenario is detailed in

the Transportation Network Assessment Report.

A map of the 2041 transit network for the recommended scenario in Waterloo Region is

presented in Exhibit 3.2. Maps of the recommended scenario for Cambridge, Kitchener, and

Waterloo are presented in Exhibit 3.3, Exhibit 3.4, and Exhibit 3.5, respectively.

As part of this scenario, the overall transit mode share target of 14.8% from the 2010 RTMP,

which identifies the share of all daily trips made in the Region using transit, was carried

forward subject to two modifications. First, the horizon year for this target was extended

from 2031 to 2041, reflecting recent reductions in transit ridership and associated

challenges. Second, the period over which this target is to be achieved was extended from

the weekday p.m. peak hour to the weekday p.m. peak period, capturing a broader mix of

trips and trip purposes. These modifications are also related to slow population growth in

the Region, compared to that projected in the 2010 RTMP.


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EXHIBIT 3.2: 2041 GRT TRANSIT NETWORK – RECOMMENDED SCENARIO


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EXHIBIT 3.3: 2041 GRT TRANSIT NETWORK – RECOMMENDED SCENARIO (CAMBRIDGE)


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EXHIBIT 3.4: 2041 GRT TRANSIT NETWORK – RECOMMENDED SCENARIO (KITCHENER)


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EXHIBIT 3.5: 2041 GRT TRANSIT NETWORK – RECOMMENDED SCENARIO (WATERLOO)


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Service Hour Targets

In order to grow transit ridership and meet the specified weekday p.m. peak period transit

mode share target of 14.8% by 2041, GRT service levels must be increased to capture a

greater number of trips. This includes adding new iXpress routes, increasing service

frequencies during peak and off-peak periods, and providing service at times when it is

currently not offered. Together, these changes represent an increase in annual revenue

service hours to be provided by GRT, growing from about 780,000 in 2017 to over 1.7

million in 2041, as shown in Exhibit 3.6. The number of required service hours in 2041 is

based on the assumption that GRT will hold a consistent ridership per revenue service hour

between 2016 and 2041. If this productivity level falls (or grows), more (or fewer) service

hours will be required by 2041, as shown by the shaded range in Exhibit 3.6.

EXHIBIT 3.6: FUTURE BUS REVENUE SERVICE HOURS REQUIRED BY 2041

The 2041 revenue service hour target of 1.7 million hours was calculated using the

following steps, as shown in Exhibit 3.7:

The number of annual transit trips (both bus and LRT) forecast for the year 2041 in the

Region was derived by multiplying the total number of trips in the Region’s travel

forecasting model by the 14.8% transit mode share target, yielding 53.5 million annual

transit trips.


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LRT trips, based on ridership projections in the GrandLinq service plan for 2041, were

then removed from this value to isolate GRT bus trips (46.4 million), as ION LRT

service is accounted for separately.

The number of bus revenue service hours was calculated by dividing the number of

trips by a bus productivity rate – that is, the average number of riders GRT can serve in

one revenue service hour. Assuming that GRT service remains as productive as in

2016 (27.2 riders per revenue service hour), 1.7 million revenue service hours will be

required in 2041, equivalent to 3.1% year-over-year growth between 2022 and 2041.

The numbers of revenue service hours required in each year between 2018 and 2021

were provided in the GRT Business Plan 2017-2021. The numbers of revenue service

hours required in each year between 2022 and 2041 were calculated based on the

3.1% year-over-year service hour growth rate.

If GRT’s productivity increases (serving more riders per revenue service hour) or decreases

(serving fewer riders per revenue service hour) by up to 25%, the number of revenue service

hours required in 2041 may vary between 1.4 million and 2.2 million. However, this report

assumes that productivity will remain constant.

EXHIBIT 3.7: STEPS TO CALCULATE 2041 GRT SERVICE HOUR REQUIREMENTS

Bus Requirements

Given that revenue service hours need to more than double by 2041, additional transit

vehicles will be required to provide this new service. It was determined that 428 peak buses

(calculated as “standard bus equivalents”) will be required by 2041, based on the provision

of 1.7 million revenue service hours by this year. Using the ratio of peak buses to total fleet

size from 2016 CUTA data, a total bus fleet size of 546 vehicles (consisting of 428 peak

vehicles and 118 spares) was identified – more than double the size of GRT’s existing bus

fleet. However, actual numbers of vehicles could change depending on GRT’s investment in

articulated buses.


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Based on this assumed fleet growth, GRT’s existing garage capacity of 500 vehicles (which

includes the forthcoming Northfield garage) will be exceeded before 2041. As such, about

46 new garage spaces will be required by 2041, which mandates the construction of an

additional transit garage. The steps followed to calculate the 2041 fleet size and garage

requirements are outlined in Exhibit 3.8.

EXHIBIT 3.8: STEPS TO CALCULATE 2041 GRT BUS FLEET REQUIREMENTS

Reaching this fleet size over a 24-year period will require purchasing approximately 11.5

fleet growth buses per year between 2018 and 2041, leading to a total of 277 growth

vehicle purchases. Once these new vehicles begin to reach the end of their service lifespans

in 2034, approximately 9.5 additional replacement buses will need to be purchased each

year; this represents an additional 75 replacement growth vehicle purchases. In total, 352

new growth buses will be purchased between 2018 and 2041, as shown in Exhibit 3.9.

Between 2018 and 2022, the number of buses purchased each year was set to match the

purchase plan defined in the Region’s Ten Year Capital Budget (2018–2027). After this

point, annual bus purchases were calculated based on the required increases in service

hours, assuming that each bus will continue to provide 3,130 annual revenue service hours.

This rate is consistent with that assumed in the GRT Business Plan for 2021.


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EXHIBIT 3.9: GRT SERVICE GROWTH VEHICLE PURCHASES, 2018–2041

GRT Route Hierarchy

Grand River Transit organizes their bus routes in a hierarchy based on service standards,

including service hours and frequencies. GRT routes can fall into three categories; frequent

(ION aBRT, iXpress, or major local routes), regular (local routes), or custom (work, school, or

township routes).

Frequent Routes

Frequent routes, including ION aBRT, iXpress, and major local routes, are defined as those

that serve major corridors with a 15-minute or better peak headway. These routes maintain

a minimum 15-minute headway between the hours of 7 a.m. and 7 p.m., 7 days per week.

Outside of peak hours, these routes maintain a minimum 30-minute headway from 5 a.m. to

12:30 a.m. (12:00 a.m. on ION aBRT routes). This service span is intended to allow for

convenient transfers between frequent bus routes and the ION LRT.

GRT’s definition of frequent transit service aligns well with the service attributes of frequent

transit provided by other GTA peer networks. Durham Region Transit’s high frequency

network, including cross-regional and major local routes, operates with headways of 30

minutes or better from morning to evening, Monday through Saturday. During peak periods,

these routes operate with headways of 10 to 15 minutes or better. York Region Transit’s

frequent network is defined by routes with headways of 15 minutes or better from 6 a.m. to


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10 p.m., on every weekday, weekend, and holiday. This includes the VIVA network, which

operates some routes on 7 to 8 minute headways.

Regular Routes

Regular routes consist entirely of lower-frequency local routes, and are defined as those that

prioritize access and service coverage for communities by providing 30-minute or better

headways throughout the day. These routes operate between the hours of 6 a.m. and 10

p.m. from Monday to Saturday, and Sunday service may be flexibly added if warranted by

demand. All regular routes connect to the frequent transit network.

Custom Routes

Custom routes include those serving industrial work areas, schools, and townships within

Waterloo Region (Elmira, Wilmot, Breslau, and Ayr), and those providing alternative service.

Service levels on these routes vary based on the target market, but most operate with 30-

mintue or better service during morning and afternoon peak hours (6 a.m. to 9 a.m. and 2

p.m. to 6 p.m., respectively) from Monday to Friday. Other routes within this category include

alternative transit services, such as BusPLUS routes, that operate using smaller vehicles

and are characterized by flexible, demand-responsive routings.

Service Levels

Based on the GRT route hierarchy, service levels for GRT bus routes have been calculated

for horizon years between 2021 and 2041, inclusive. These service levels have been

calculated to fit within the total number of service hours defined in Exhibit 3.7 while using

the number of peak buses defined in Exhibit 3.8. For these horizon years, three route

classes have been re-grouped as follows:

iXpress routes are separated from high-frequency local routes, and will have the same

or better headways as these local routes;

High-Frequency Local routes consist of key local routes that are operating at high

frequencies, but are not a part of the iXpress network; and

Low-Frequency Local routes consist of regular and custom routes, which provide

service to lower-demand areas and townships. These routes are expected to operate

at the same headways during peak periods.

By 2021, GRT’s iXpress routes will be able to operate at 10-minute headways during peak

periods, while high-frequency local routes will be able to operate at 15-minute headways.

Low-frequency local routes will operate at 30-minute headways. Over the following 20 years,

these service frequencies will steadily increase. iXpress headways will decrease to 8

minutes by 2036, remaining at this level through 2041. Headways on high-frequency local


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routes will be reduced to 10 minutes by 2031 and 8 minutes by 2041, while headways on

low-frequency local routes, including regular and custom routes, will decrease by 5 minutes

every 5 years until headways reach 15 minutes in 2036. These low-frequency headways will

be further reduced to 12 minutes by 2041. These changes are shown in Exhibit 3.10.

As GRT service frequencies increase, the number of required buses will also increase. The

proposed headways for each year have been chosen based on the number of peak buses

available in that year. As shown in Exhibit 3.10, the total number of buses required to

achieve these service frequencies is equal to the number of peak buses available (based on

the purchase schedule shown in Exhibit 3.9). Between 2021 and 2041, it is worth noting

that the number of peak buses required for each type of route will nearly double,

representing an ongoing commitment to improving the quality of service across the GRT

system.

EXHIBIT 3.10: GRT ROUTE HEADWAYS AND REQUIRED BUSES BY YEAR, PM PEAK PERIOD, 2021–2041

Horizon Year 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

PM Peak Headway

iXpress 10 min 10 min 10 min 8 min 8 min

High-Frequency Local 15 min 12 min 10 min 10 min 8 min

Low-Frequency Local 30 min 25 min 20 min 15 min 12 min

Number of Peak Buses

iXpress 73 77 77 96 96

High-Frequency Local 64 79 94 94 117

Low-Frequency Local 94 113 144 177 215

Total Peak Buses 231 269 315 367 428

Total Buses Available

(including spares)

295 344 402 468 546

New Services and Infrastructure

Between 2018 and 2041, a number of new transit services will be introduced in the Region

of Waterloo, in addition to new transit infrastructure and transit service changes. As part of

the rapid transit system, the Region’s ION LRT and aBRT system will be introduced, and

eventually phased into a complete LRT system. In addition to increasing service levels on

existing GRT routes, a portion of the new GRT vehicles and service hours added between

2018 and 2041 will be used on new routes. New infrastructure required to support these

routes and service changes has also been identified, in addition to changes to existing


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infrastructure. Finally, new GO services and infrastructure, relating to both rail and bus

services, have been identified.

ION Rapid Transit

One of the largest changes to transit in Waterloo Region will be the completion of the ION

rapid transit corridor, connecting Waterloo, Kitchener, and Cambridge. This corridor will start

as ION Stage 1, consisting of a LRT system between Waterloo and Kitchener paired with an

aBRT system between Kitchener and Cambridge. Operations will begin on the ION system

within the planning horizon years of the 2018 TMP, and eventually the aBRT section

between Fairview Park Mall (Kitchener) and Ainslie Street Terminal (Cambridge) will be

upgraded to LRT service as part of ION Stage 2.

GRT iXpress Routes

Between 2018 and 2041, a number of new iXpress routes will be introduced and one

iXpress route will be reassigned. With the introduction of the ION LRT, the 200 iXpress route

will be shortened and re-branded as ION aBRT, running between Fairview Park Mall in

Kitchener and Ainslie Street Terminal in Cambridge. New iXpress routes will then be

introduced progressively to provide high-frequency service to new areas of the Region. In

addition to these new routes, existing iXpress routes such as 201 will be modified to better

connect with the ION LRT, serve new terminals, and avoid service duplication.

GRT Local Routes

Changes to local GRT routes can be broadly grouped in two categories: changes to existing

routes, and new routes introduced to new service areas.

Existing routes will generally be adjusted to form a more grid-like network while increasing

service frequencies, allowing travellers to reach more destinations with one or fewer

transfers while avoiding circuitous routes. Major routes will also be realigned to better

integrate with the ION system, providing travellers with improved transfer opportunities.

Route schedules will be adapted to reduce wait times.

The second set of changes involves introducing new routes to new service areas. This will be

done in response to new developments and passenger demand.

Passenger Facilities

A number of changes are planned for passenger facilities in Kitchener, Cambridge, and

Waterloo, including the development of new stations and the retirement of some existing

facilities. With the changes noted and the addition of two new stations, the Region of

Waterloo’s transportation network should be well equipped to support future GRT and

regional services.


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By 2021, routes will be diverted away from using the Charles Terminal in Kitchener as the

major passenger transfer point. Instead, other Downtown ION stations in Kitchener will be

used as the transfer points for passengers. A new Central Station multimodal hub is being

developed at the corner of King and Victoria Streets to replace the Charles Terminal. This

facility will serve as a station for GRT, GO bus, and intercity bus services. In addition, the

Kitchener GO station will be relocated adjacent to the Central Station hub, providing short

and convenient transfers between GO rail, ION LRT, and other bus services.

The removal of the Charles Terminal also has implications on other GRT facilities. Facilities

formerly located at the Charles Terminal, such as driver lunch rooms, washrooms, and other

layover amenities, will have to be added at route-end stations. Confirmed sites for these

facilities include Sunrise Centre, Conestoga Mall ION station, and Fairway ION station. Block

Line ION station, Conestoga College, and Stanley Park Mall are all potential locations for

additional facilities.

Finally, new passenger facilities have been proposed for the University of Waterloo and

Conestoga College. The University of Waterloo Station will be developed into a transit plaza,

featuring a bus-only roadway connecting Phillip Street and Ring Road. It will feature ION LRT

platforms in addition to bus bays for use by GRT, GO Transit, and inter-city vehicles. Shelters

for passengers and real-time GRT departure information will also be provided. A facility at

Conestoga College (which is currently under construction) will provide better connections for

routes terminating there, including two iXpress routes and multiple local routes. A facility in

this part of the Region would also serve any new routes covering southwest Kitchener, an

area that is expected to develop and grow over the coming years.

Other GRT Infrastructure

With the addition of the Northfield garage, (scheduled to be completed in 2021), GRT will be

able to accommodate 500 standard bus equivalents (SBEs) across all of its garages.

However, the 2018 TMP plans for the GRT bus fleet to exceed 540 SBEs by 2041. This will

require the construction of another new transit garage, ideally with a capacity of 250 SBEs

to accommodate larger articulated buses and fleet growth beyond 2041. This garage should

be operational by 2036 – potentially sooner depending on GRT’s need to accommodate

additional articulated buses – in order to ensure fleet growth can proceed as planned.

GO Rail and Bus Service

Changes to GO service and infrastructure between 2018 and 2041 will primarily target the

Kitchener line. Metrolinx plans to increase the service frequency on this line to two trains per

hour (30 minute headways) during peak periods, and eventually provide all-day, two-way

service between Kitchener and Toronto’s Union Station. A new GO station on this line is also

planned for the community of Breslau, which would be located approximately 7 km east of


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Kitchener GO and 3 km north of the Region of Waterloo International Airport. Finally, a

portion of the Kitchener line (between Mount Pleasant and Union stations) is set to be

electrified, improving service and reducing the environmental impact of GO train movements

along this corridor.

By 2041, GO bus services between Kitchener and Guelph, and Kitchener and Cambridge,

will be upgraded to operate as regional express bus. Other regional express bus routes are

planned to connect Cambridge with other regional destinations, including Guelph (via

Hespeler Road), Brantford (via Highway 24), and Hamilton (via Highway 8), in addition to

existing destinations within the Greater Toronto Area. High-Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes

will also be constructed on Highway 401, helping transit vehicles travel between the Region

of Waterloo and the GTA. These proposed changes are presented in Exhibit 3.11.

EXHIBIT 3.11: PROPOSED 2041 REGIONAL EXPRESS BUS NETWORK

Source: Metrolinx 2041 Regional Transportation Plan, 2018 (pg. 71)


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Implementation Phasing

The transit changes and improvements for the Region of Waterloo will be implemented in

three phases over the horizon of the 2018 TMP. Short term changes will be implemented

between 2018 and 2021, medium term changes will be implemented between 2022 and

2031, and long term changes will be implemented between 2032 and 2041:

Short Term (2018–2021): ION rapid transit opens, new iXpress routes are introduced,

iXpress and local GRT routes are realigned to complement ION service, all GRT route

frequencies improve (iXpress now 10 minutes, local now 15-30 minutes), Northfield

transit garage opens.

Medium Term (2022–2031): ION LRT Stage 2 opens, new iXpress routes are

introduced as needed, local GRT route frequencies improve (now 10-20 minutes).

Long Term (2032–2041): New iXpress routes are introduced as needed, all GRT route

frequencies improve (iXpress now 8 minutes, local now 8-12 minutes), additional

transit garage opens.

Short Term (2018–2021)

Transit changes in the short term are primarily guided by the 2017–2021 GRT Business

Plan, which describes the introduction of new routes, changes to existing routes, and capital

expenses (e.g. bus purchases) necessary to support these changes. Additionally, Stage 1 of

the ION rapid transit system will be implemented early within this time frame, providing a

central rapid transit corridor in the Region.

In 2019, Stage 1 of the ION rapid transit system will open, consisting of ION LRT from

Conestoga Mall in Waterloo to Fairview Park Mall in Kitchener. This will complement the

adapted BRT (ION Bus) that currently operates from Fairview Park Mall to Ainslie Street

Terminal in Cambridge. By 2021, the ION Bus will be extended to the South Cambridge

Shopping Centre at Main and Dundas. These service introductions will take place at the

same time as a number of changes to iXpress routes in the Region:

200 iXpress will be replaced with ION LRT and Bus, featuring new vehicles;

201 iXpress will be extended to Conestoga College, replacing Route 116 College

express; and

206 iXpress (Coronation) will be introduced, travelling between Fairview Park Mall and

Southwood Drive (Cambridge) via Ainslie Street Terminal.

Changes to local GRT routes during this time period will mainly involve restructuring and

realigning individual routes, forming a grid network and providing better integration with the

ION rapid transit corridor. Other changes include extending local service to new growth areas


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and the Townships, transitioning routes from using the Charles Terminal to other Downtown

Kitchener ION stations, and constructing the Northfield transit garage.

By the end of this term, GRT iXpress and high-frequency local routes will operate on 10- and

15-minute headways during peak periods, respectively, while low-frequency local routes

(regular and community) will operate on 30-minute headways during peak periods. During

these periods, about 60% of the GRT peak bus fleet will operate on high-frequency iXpress

and local routes, while the remaining 40% will operate on low-frequency routes.

Medium Term (2022–2031)

Transit changes in the medium term include improvements to the rapid transit and iXpress

networks in Cambridge and improvements to GO rail service on the Kitchener line. Changes

to ION and iXpress routes in this term include:

ION Bus will be replaced by Stage 2 ION LRT by the end of this term;

ION Bus would then travel between Ainslie Street Terminal and the South Cambridge

Shopping Centre; and

206 iXpress would travel between Ainslie Street Terminal and Southwood Drive.

Other GRT transit changes within this time period include service improvements to high

frequency, local, and community routes. By the end of this term, GRT iXpress and high-

frequency local routes will operate on 10-minute headways during peak periods. Low-

frequency GRT local routes (regular and community) will operate on 20-minute headways

during peak periods. During these periods, about 55% of the GRT peak bus fleet will operate

on high-frequency iXpress and local routes, while the remaining 45% will operate on low-

frequency routes.

In the medium term, GO rail upgrades will be made along the Kitchener line, including the

construction of a new station at Breslau, between the existing Kitchener and Guelph

stations. Service levels will be increased to every 30 minutes during peak times, and all-day,

two-way service will be added between Kitchener and Union stations. Further, a portion of

the GO Kitchener corridor between Mount Pleasant and Union stations will be electrified

during this time frame.

Long Term (2032–2041)

Long-term changes to transit in the Region of Waterloo include and complement

improvements originally proposed in the 2010 RTMP, the 2018 Metrolinx RTP, and other

planning documents. It will be important to begin planning for Stage 3 of ION rapid transit, to

be implemented beyond 2041. ION Stage 3 will complement the ION LRT by providing east-

west rapid transit corridors in the Region.


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GRT changes to be implemented between 2032 and 2041 again include service

improvements to high frequency, local, and community routes, as well as the construction of

a new transit garage to accommodate the growing bus fleet. By the end of this term, GRT

iXpress and high-frequency local routes will operate on 8-minute headways during peak

periods, while low-frequency local routes (regular and community) will operate on 12-minute

headways during peak periods. During these periods, about 50% of the GRT peak bus fleet

will operate on high-frequency iXpress and local routes and 50% will operate on low-

frequency routes.

Changes to inter-regional service in this time period primarily consist of new regional express

GO bus routes connecting Kitchener and Cambridge with Brantford, Hamilton, and Guelph.

Network Performance

To identify Region-wide benefits of implementing the recommended scenario for the 2018

TMP, the Region’s travel forecasting model was used to estimate trips in the 2041 weekday

p.m. peak period. This model uses population and employment forecasts (based on the

Region’s moderate growth forecast) as input, simulating trips in the Region over the three-

hour peak period on a variety of modes. Based on the results from the travel forecasting

model, the following five impacts and performance statements related to the recommended

transit network were identified.

The 2018 TMP transit strategy has been developed to provide enough service to meet the

2041 14.8% transit mode share targets for all Regional trips made in the p.m. peak period.

This includes trips to and from work and school, as well as discretionary trips for shopping,

appointments, and more that use ION rapid transit, GRT iXpress, and GRT local services.

This transit strategy also provides enough service to meet the interim 2031 transit mode

share target of 9.7%.

Most of the growth in transit trips between 2016 and 2041 is forecast to come from the

introduction of ION LRT. Approximately 5.2% of all p.m. peak period travel in the Region is

expected to use ION by 2041, representing nearly 24,000 trips using the LRT. In

comparison, the share of trips using local and iXpress GRT buses is expected to increase

from 4.9% in 2016 to 9.6% in 2041.

Transit trip growth is expected to greatly outpace auto trip growth between 2031 and 2041,

primarily due to the large increase in transit service levels across the Region. Auto p.m. peak

period trips are forecast to grow by 11,800 within the period between 2031 and 2041. In

comparison, p.m. peak period transit trips are forecast to grow by 27,500 between 2031

and 2041, signifying an important shift towards transit use.


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Meeting service hour targets will require increasing transit service hours and transit vehicle-

kilometres of travel (VKT). Most transit VKT growth will occur in the p.m. peak period due to

new and higher-frequency service on the local GRT network. This change is expected to grow

VKT by 2.4 times from 11,500 km (in 2016) to 31,500 km (in 2041) in the three-hour p.m.

peak period. Similarly, VKT on the iXpress network is expected to triple over the same time

period, growing from 1,800 km to 5,400 km in the three-hour p.m. peak period.

New and improved transit service reduces the number of new auto-based trips. If the

Region’s transit mode share were to remain unchanged between 2016 and 2041, there

would be an additional 54,550 auto driving trips made in single occupant vehicles in the

p.m. peak period by the year 2041. Introducing ION rapid transit, increasing service on the

iXpress and local bus networks, improving transit coverage, and adding active transportation

facilities throughout the Region of Waterloo will all contribute to shifting these auto trips to

more sustainable modes (i.e. transit, walking, and/or cycling).

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4. Transit Priority Measures Transit Priority Measures (TPMs) can be used to help achieve the goals of the 2018 TMP by

improving the speed and quality of transit in the Region, making it a more attractive choice

for travellers. Three types of transit priority measures exist:

Regulatory Measures, which consist of yield-to-bus legislation, parking restrictions,

turning restrictions, and other rule-based measures that help ensure transit vehicles

are not delayed or obstructed;

Transit Signal Priority (TSP), which involves adjustments to traffic signal phasing

and/or timing in order to provide priority to transit vehicles travelling in specific

directions or making specific turning movements; and

Physical Measures, which include dedicated transit lanes, queue jump lanes, and

other localized or corridor-wide changes to road infrastructure.

As of 2018, examples of each type of transit priority measure can be found in the Region of

Waterloo. These include regulatory yield-to-bus legislation, TSP for iXpress and future ION

Bus vehicles along University Avenue, Conestoga Boulevard, and Hespeler Road, and

physical queue jump infrastructure on portions of Hespeler Road.


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Guidelines for Implementing Transit Priority Measures

The Transportation Association of Canada (TAC) has prepared guidelines for planning and

implementing Transit Priority Measures. These guidelines include a framework that can help

practitioners select appropriate methods, which is presented in Exhibit 4.1. This framework

begins with a trigger for the implementation of a transit priority measure, followed by

preliminary assessment, selection, final assessment, installation, and finally post evaluation.

EXHIBIT 4.1: TRANSIT PRIORITY MEASURE SELECTION FRAMEWORK

Source: TAC Guidelines for Planning and Implementation of Transit Priority Measures, 2012

A trigger for the implementation of a transit priority measure may be reactive, such as in

response to delays or complaints, or proactive, as part of a master plan or the

implementation of new transit service. Proactive triggers may come from city- or region-

affiliated groups, such as a transit agency, public works, or local government, while reactive

triggers may come from the public in addition to the groups listed.

Following the identification of a trigger, the location identified for a priority measure will be

assessed. This process may involve field investigations, travel time studies, or simulations,

the results of which will be used to help define the area in which the measure should be

applied (e.g. one intersection, multiple intersections, or a whole corridor) and create a short

list of measures from which to choose. As part of this process, consideration is given to both

positive and negative aspects of introducing a transit priority measure, including impacts on

other road users, public acceptance, and costs.


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Based on the scale of the problem, as well as the costs and benefits associated with each

shortlisted transit priority measure, a TPM is chosen to address the trigger. The selected

measure is then subjected to a more detailed analysis – if any serious negative impacts are

discovered, a different measure is selected. Once the measure is approved, it is

implemented, which may involve something as minor as implementing signal priority, or as

major as constructing a new transit lane. Regardless of the scale of the measure, it will be

monitored to ensure that the desired improvements are taking place.

In the Region of Waterloo, it is recommended that the implementation of transit priority

measures be proactively examined for corridors with high-frequency service. This includes

local high-frequency routes, but specific attention should be given to iXpress and ION bus

routes, as well as transit corridors that lead to or from transit facilities. Other intersections or

corridors that lead to reduce route performance due to congestion should be considered for

transit priority measures on a reactive basis.

Ongoing and Future Transit Priority Projects

Over the short- and medium-terms, a number of transit priority projects have been

proactively planned within the Region of Waterloo. Some of the projects that will be

completed during this time frame include:

Constructing queue jumps near Preston along Shantz Hill Road, Fountain Street South,

and King Street;

Constructing queue jumps along Victoria Street (eastbound at Lawrence Avenue) and

Hespeler Road (southbound at the Delta Bridge); and

Constructing bus bypass lanes along the shoulders of Highway 401 (MTO project).

As noted, future proactive transit priority projects should focus on corridors used by ION Bus,

iXpress, and high-frequency local transit routes. Recommended projects include the

construction of bus lanes and the implementation of TSP along Fischer-Hallman Road

(between Columbia Street West and Highway 7/8) and the development of one or more

major east-west routes into transit corridors using TSP and other measures as part of ION

Stage 3 rapid transit corridor (described in Section 7).

Funding for transit priority, including both reactive and proactive projects, should be

provided as a fixed, recurring annual amount. Given that some measures, such as

implementing transit signal priority, are relatively inexpensive ($5,000+ per signal), while

measures involving construction such as queue jumps, bus lanes, or road widening can cost

far more, it is recommended that $500,000 per year be allocated to transit priority. This

way, funding will be available for larger projects as needed, and multiple small projects may

be completed each year.

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5. New Service Delivery Models To provide transit to underserved areas of the Region which may not be candidates for fixed-

route service, new service delivery models are being considered. In September 2018, the

Region launched a series of pilot projects to test and evaluate these service delivery models.

Areas selected as candidates for new service delivery, including flexible transit options, will

be chosen based on a number of factors. These areas may feature physical barriers or lack

sidewalks, streets may be circuitous and not designed around an arterial/collector grid

network, or the areas may feature transit-dependent facilities (e.g. large employers,

apartments, or community centres) that are not located near transit routes. Further, these

areas should rank in the top 50% of areas by number of customer requests for new transit

service. Within the Region, three areas have been identified as candidates and will have 10-

month flexible transit service pilot projects implemented:

Northwest Waterloo (roughly bounded by Wideman Road, Laurelwood Drive, Fischer-

Hallman Road, Keats Way, and Forested Hills/Westside Trails);

Central Hespeler (roughly bounded by Rife Avenue, Cooper Street, Gunn Avenue, and

Franklin Boulevard); and

Trinity Village/Freeport Campus (Kingsway Drive north of Fairview Park Mall and King

Street north of the Grand River).


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The GRT Business Plan highlights three options for providing service to these areas, which

are described in the following sections. Additionally, flexible transit services provided in

other GTHA municipalities are described, and future options for alternative transit services

are explored.

Dynamic and Flexible Transit Options for Grand River Transit

Ridesharing

In the Region of Waterloo, a ridesharing pilot project is planned for Northwest Waterloo and

would be operated by RideCo. This service provider previously operated a ridesharing pilot in

the Town of Milton, allowed travellers to book, pay for, and track their rides using software

applications accessible through smartphones, personal computers, or kiosks. In Milton, five-

seat passenger vans were used as ridesharing vehicles, which picked up passengers at

communal stops and brought them to the GO station for a flat fare. For a slightly higher fare,

riders could choose to be picked up at any location within the service area. The results of

this pilot are described later in this section.

The ridesharing pilot operated by RideCo is expected to work similarly in Northwest Waterloo

– passengers would request and pay for rides using software applications, and the service

would employ shared-ride sedans and passenger vans. The main differences are that users

of the service would only be picked up at communal stops, they would be charged a

standard GRT fare, and they would be brought to pre-selected GRT transfer points to

continue their trips on conventional transit.

Subsidized Taxi Service

A subsidized taxi service pilot is planned for Central Hespeler in Cambridge, and would be

operated by Golden Triangle Taxi. Users of this taxi service would book their outbound and

return trips in advance by calling GRT customer service, where they would select from a set

of pre-scheduled pickup times. Taxis would then provide door-to-door trips, taking

passengers from their home or other origin to a chosen destination, including GRT transfer

points. Based on the passenger’s route and time, they may share their trip with others

travelling between nearby origins or destinations. A standard GRT fare would apply for the

use of this service.

Community Buses

The third new service delivery pilot in the Region is planned for Trinity Village/Freeport

Campus, using community buses operated by Voyageur Transportation. Community bus

service in the Region would be booked using the same method as subsidized taxi service –

passengers would call GRT customer service in advance to book their trips – however,


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passengers would be required to get themselves to a nearby communal stop. At scheduled

times, vehicles would pick up passengers at each stop and bring them to a GRT transfer

point, or vice-versa. The routes taken by these vehicles would be dynamic and determined

by when and where riders in the area requested to be picked up or dropped off. Again, a

standard GRT fare would apply for the use of this service.

Dynamic and Flexible Transit in Other Municipalities

The economics of providing flexible transit are changing, and with near real-time ride hailing

and dispatching, ridesharing services are becoming a more feasible option for connecting

transportation supply and demand. In the municipalities of Milton and Innisfil, on-demand

transit options have been tested with promising results.

In Milton, Metrolinx and Milton Transit partnered with RideCo to pilot a flexible transit

service, providing first-and-last mile access to the GO station and local transit routes for one

year. Riders were able to book rides using a software application accessible through their

smartphones or computers, choosing from a variety of ride times and two types of service;

communal or doorstep. With communal service, riders were picked up or dropped off at one

of 240 stop locations in the city for a flat fare, while doorstep service charged a slightly

higher fare to pick up or drop off passengers at their home. After six months of operation,

RideCo was serving over 80 passengers per day. Metrolinx also noted that 45% of GO rail

riders switched from driving to using RideCo to access the Milton GO station. While RideCo’s

pilot ended in 2016, Metrolinx is moving forward with additional, similar pilot projects to

leverage and further test this evolving technology.

More recently, the Town of Innisfil partnered with Uber to provide transit service to its

residents, who were otherwise reliant on private automobiles and regional GO services.

Much like RideCo’s service in Milton, residents can request trips through smartphones or

computers, and trips to or from specific destinations are provided at flat fares between $3

and $5. These destinations include Innisfil Recreational Complex/Town Hall, Innisfil Heights

Employment Area, and local GO bus and train stops and stations. The main differences with

Uber’s service are that transit users can request rides on-demand, 24 hours a day, and

door-to-door service is provided for all trips (trips to destinations without a flat fare are

discounted by $5 from standard Uber rates). This partnership has saved Innisfil the costs of

purchasing, operating, and maintaining a traditional bus fleet while providing customized

service for the Town’s residents.


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Future Service Delivery Models

Following the conclusion of the Region of Waterloo’s flexible transit pilot projects, results

can be used to inform the selection of future or ongoing service delivery models. This may

involve using one of the three flexible transit options initially tested, an alternative/hybrid

option, or new technology as it becomes available. It will be important for the Region to

recognize that travellers are changing the way they move – the two independent groups of

“car drivers” and “transit users” are being replaced by multi-modal users, who may drive,

take transit, or use car-sharing or ride hailing services as needed. By planning with these

new mobility-as-a-service options in mind, as shown in Exhibit 5.1, the Region can be better

accommodate these transportation modes if and when they become available.

EXHIBIT 5.1: NEW MOBILITY PARADIGM FOR INTER-MODAL USERS

In the long term, it is also important to consider the potential uses and impacts of new

technology on service delivery. While current transportation options rely on driven vehicles

such as buses, cars, and minivans, the introduction of connected and autonomous vehicles

(CAVs) could remove the need for drivers and thus significantly reduce operating costs. Not

only would these driverless vehicles benefit existing services, including public transit and

ride hailing, but CAVs may allow for the introduction of new demand-responsive micro-transit

options, providing service to areas that were previously cost-prohibitive. Overall, GRT’s focus

should be on ensuring that these new transportation technologies are well integrated with

fixed-route transit, growing transit ridership in what is expected to be an increasingly

competitive environment.

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6. Costs Capital and operating costs, as well as new fare revenues, have been estimated for the

implementation of the required transit network changes and improvements. These costs are

detailed for the three terms (short, medium, and long) of the 2018 TMP. All costs in this

section are expressed in 2018 dollars.

Capital Costs

Capital costs were calculated for the proposed transit network in the 2018 TMP based on

four main expenses: new vehicles (buses), new transit garages, transit priority measures,

and ancillary costs. It is important to note that these expenses only relate to system growth

– that is, costs associated with providing and maintaining new or improved services, as

opposed to costs associated with maintaining current service.

Between 2018 and 2041, 352 buses would need to be purchased to deliver necessary

service levels on GRT’s iXpress and local routes. It is assumed that each vehicle would cost

$628,500, leading to a total growth cost of $220 million divided between the three terms of

this plan as shown in Exhibit 6.1. More than half of these bus purchases would take place in

the last 10 years of this plan, as this term includes the replacement of retiring growth

vehicles purchased earlier in this plan.


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EXHIBIT 6.1: TRANSIT CAPITAL GROWTH COSTS BY CATEGORY AND TERM

Transit Capital Costs

Short Term

2018–2021

Med. Term

2022–2031

Long Term

2032–2041

Total

2018–2041

Bus Fleet Growth $15 M $65 M $140 M $220 M

New Transit Garages $120 M - $120 M $240 M

Transit Priority Measures $2 M $5 M $5 M $12 M

Ancillary Costs $34 M $6 M $6 M $46 M

Total Capital Costs by Period $171 M $76 M $271 M $518 M

With the purchase of additional buses, GRT’s fleet size would exceed its garage capacity

during the time frame of this plan, requiring the construction of an additional transit garage.

Based on cost estimates for the Northfield garage (currently under development), $120

million has been budgeted for an additional garage in the long term, as it is expected that

this future garage will be similar in size to the Northfield garage. In addition, funding

commitments for the Northfield garage, which has not yet been constructed, have been

considered in the short term as a cost of $120 million, leading to total garage development

expenses of $240 M over the horizon of this plan.

An annual allowance of $500,000 has been made for transit priority, including but not

limited to transit signal priority implementation or the construction of new infrastructure (e.g.

queue jump lanes). This financial commitment is motivated by the desire to provide a steady

and predictable funding stream for transit priority projects, allowing them to be rolled out

over time. The rationale for this funding allowance is described in Section 4.

Ancillary costs, defined as expenses related to the growth of GRT service, include bus stop

improvements, station and terminal development, property acquisitions, and other

infrastructure-related costs. The ancillary costs presented in Exhibit 6.1 were derived from

the Region of Waterloo 10-year capital budget; specifically, short term costs represent a sum

of these years’ expenses. Costs in the medium and long terms represent recurring expenses

at a rate of $575,000 per year, which is consistent with annual transit growth costs for

2022-2027 in the budget. Since many short term budget items have been rolled forward

from 2017, short term ancillary costs make up a large portion of all budgeted ancillary costs.

Operating Costs and Fare Revenue

Operating costs for the GRT bus network are largely driven by three items – operator wages,

maintenance costs, and fuel costs. These items, as well as additional direct operating costs

such as plant maintenance and general/administration expenses, have been estimated for

each year between 2018 and 2041 using an operating cost model. The operating cost


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model, presented below, is based on the model used to calculate these costs in the 2010

RTMP.

Direct O&M Costs = 1.152 x ($77,490 x Peak Buses + $65.38 x Revenue Hours +

$0.485 x Revenue Kilometres)

The factors applied in the operating cost model have been derived from CUTA data for GRT

operations between 2007 and 2016. It is assumed that these rates and the relationship

between them will remain constant in future years.

The scaling factor (1.152) is a 10-year average of the ratio between operating,

maintenance, and fuel costs, and total direct operating expenses for GRT.

The fixed cost per peak vehicle ($77,490) is derived from the 2016 annual fleet

maintenance cost divided by the number of peak buses.

The fixed cost per revenue hour ($65.38) is derived from the 2016 annual operating

cost divided by the number of revenue service hours.

The fixed cost per revenue kilometre ($0.485) is derived from the 2016 annual fuel

cost divided by the number of revenue kilometres.

Between 2018 and 2021, GRT’s larger bus fleet will cost about $380 M to operate. These

costs are expected to grow every year, leading to operating costs of $1,630 M between

2032 and 2041, which are presented in Exhibit 6.2.

Fare revenues for the GRT bus fleet were also calculated using CUTA data for GRT. For each

service year, revenues were estimated by multiplying forecast bus ridership by an average

fare per rider ($1.58, provided in 2016 CUTA data). This yields revenues of $150 M between

2018 and 2021, revenues of $470 M between 2022 and 2031, and revenues of $640 M

between 2032 and 2041. Calculating the difference between the direct operating costs and

fare revenues for each time period yields net operating costs of $230 M between 2018 and

2021, $730 M between 2022 and 2031, and finally costs of $990 M between 2032 and

2041, as shown in Exhibit 6.2.

EXHIBIT 6.2: TRANSIT OPERATING COSTS BY CATEGORY AND YEAR

Transit Operating Costs

Short Term

2018–2021

Med. Term

2022–2031

Long Term

2032–2041

Total

2018–2041

Direct Operating Costs $380 M $1,200 M $1,630 M $3,210 M

Fare Revenues ($150 M) ($470 M) ($640 M) ($1,260 M)

Net Operating Costs by Period $230 M $730 M $990 M $1,950 M

7-1

7. Transit Needs Beyond 2041 To be prepared for transit needs beyond the horizon year of 2041, the Region of Waterloo

should focus on corridor protection for rapid transit and commuter rail. These corridors

consist of two on-road east-west routes for high-frequency ION bus rapid transit service, and

two rail links for connecting new locations in the Region of Waterloo to the GO rail network.

Specific corridors noted for protection (shown in Exhibit 7.1 through Exhibit 7.4) are:

Erb Street West – University Avenue West – King Street North, from Ira Needles

Boulevard to Conestoga Mall;

Victoria Street South/Highland Road West – Charles Street – Victoria Street North,

from Ira Needles Boulevard to Lackner Boulevard;

Corridor between GO Kitchener line and Region of Waterloo International Airport; and

Galt rail subdivision (CP Rail) between downtown Cambridge and Milton, or Fergus rail

subdivision (CN Rail) between downtown Cambridge and Guelph.


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The Erb-University-King corridor could accommodate ION Stage 3 service in the form of bus

rapid transit. This corridor extends west and northeast from the University of Waterloo ION

LRT station, providing a high-frequency east-west rapid transit service through Waterloo.

Similarly, the Victoria/Highland-Charles-Victoria corridor could also accommodate ION Stage

3 rapid transit service. This corridor extends west and east from the forthcoming Central

Station multimodal hub, providing a high-frequency east-west rapid transit service through

Kitchener.

A corridor between the GO Kitchener rail line and Region of Waterloo International Airport

(YKF) could be protected for the development of a new rail spur, branching off from the

Kitchener GO line near the forthcoming Breslau station. This spur would serve a number of

purposes; locally, it would provide better access between downtown Kitchener and the

airport, and regionally it could support the integration of the Waterloo Airport with Toronto

Pearson International Airport. This corridor could also integrate the Waterloo Airport with

future high-speed rail service along the Toronto-London corridor. Exhibit 7.1 shows a

conceptual alignment in Waterloo Region, but further study is needed to establish the

benefits, challenges, and specific alignment of this rail spur. Exhibit 7.2, Exhibit 7.3, and

Exhibit 7.4 show the alignment and other potential corridors in Cambridge, Kitchener, and

Waterloo, respectively.

Two rail corridors leading to downtown Cambridge are also recommended to be protected

for future service. These are the Fergus subdivision, running between the Kitchener GO line

west of Guelph and downtown Cambridge, and the Galt subdivision, running between the

Milton GO line west of Milton and downtown Cambridge. Both corridors have previously been

studied for GO service, and as such both should be protected. Along these two corridors,

there are a number of potential station sites that should also be protected for potential

future development. These include two locations along the Galt subdivision (both in south

Cambridge/Galt) and three locations along the Fergus subdivision (one each in Galt,

Preston, and Hespeler).


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EXHIBIT 7.1: MAP OF RAPID TRANSIT AND RAIL CORRIDORS FOR PROTECTION BEYOND 2041


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EXHIBIT 7.2: MAP OF TRANSIT CORRIDORS FOR PROTECTION BEYOND 2041 (CAMBRIDGE)


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EXHIBIT 7.3: MAP OF TRANSIT CORRIDORS FOR PROTECTION BEYOND 2041 (KITCHENER)


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EXHIBIT 7.4: MAP OF TRANSIT CORRIDORS FOR PROTECTION BEYOND 2041 (WATERLOO)

transit strategy report - moving forward

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