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The Iranian Nuclear Deal

Area 16.48 lakh sq. km.

Population 7.8 crore

Population growth rate 1.29% (2013)

GDP (nominal) $406 billion

GDP (PPP) $1.24 trillion

GDP growth rate 3% in 2014

Per capita income (’13) $4769 (nom.); $16,165 (PPP)

Forex Reserves Approx. $70 billion

Labour Force 24 million

Unemployment rate 11.4% (2014)

External debt $16 billion

Iran’s Vital Statistics

∫ Largest Shia republic; rivals Saudi Arabia for hegemony over Islamic World

∫ Ruled by Clerical Administration since 1979Islamic Revolution

∫ Views U.S. & Israel as enemies of Islam

∫ U.S. views Iran as a major sponsor of

terrorism – part of ‘Axis of Evil’

Iran: Basic fact-sheet

Iran v West: Nuked relationship

∫ Accused by IAEA/U.S./EU of pursuing nuke weapons program; charge denied by Iran

∫ Tehran says its nuke program is peaceful & aimed at civil energy generation

∫ IAEA asks Iran open its nuke facilities to inspections

∫ Iran ignores international demands for rollback of nuclear program

Iran’s Nuclear Sites

Important sidelights∫ Iran - member of the NPT

∫ NPT forbids members other than P5 from owning/pursuing nukes

∫ As IAEA member, it should abide by its rules

∫ Desperately to get into WTO, a move stymied by the West

U.S./EU/UN Sanctions∫ No country could buy energy resources from Iran

∫ Ban on supply of nuke-related technology & materials to Iran

∫ Freeze on assets of key Iranian individuals & companies

∫ No business/financial transactions with Iran; if any country/company was found violating this rule, then such entity will be banned from US/EU financial markets

∫ Crippled Iran’s fragile economy; massive scarcity of essential goods, incl. medicines

∫ Leading to flight of foreign capital

∫ Tough to export energy (oil & gas), its most imp

forex earner

∫ All this pushed economy into severe crisis

Impact of Sanctions

What about negotiations?∫ Talks between Iran & E3 (Britain, France, &

Germany) for several years

∫ E3, backed by the U.S., adopted carrot & stickapproach in talks with Iran

∂ Carrot: Back Iran’s entry into WTO & end sanctions

∂ Stick: More stringent sanctions

∂ But.... Iran remained intransigent; talks hit a wall.

The Israel factor∫ Iran calls for wiping Israel off the “map of the

world”

∫ Iran supports anti-Israel Islamic militant groups like Hezbollah; proxy war

∫ Israel hints at military strike at Iran’s nuke facilities to destroy them; Israel puts pressure on the U.S. for military strike

∫ Cyber warfare – Stuxnet

P5+1 and Iran:Rivals talk!

Agrees to freeze its uranium enrichment program

Abandons weapons pursuit

Opens all nuke facilities to IAEA

inspections

Integration of economy with global economy; plans high

oil production

Bulk of sanctions lifted; $100 bn in overseas

assets defreezed

Nuke Deal: Impact

∫ Shift in regional alliances∂ U.S.-Iran convergence

∂ U.S.-Israel/SA divergence

∂ Syria – Bashar may survive

∫ Iraq: U.S. okay for greater Iranian role

∫ Afghanistan: Iran supports non-Taliban actors

Geopolitical Impact of Nuke Deal