the chronology of colonization in remote oceania

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The Chronology of Colonization in Remote Oceania Page 1 of 15 PRINTED FROM OXFORD HANDBOOKS ONLINE (www.oxfordhandbooks.com). (c) Oxford University Press, 2015. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a title in Oxford Handbooks Online for personal use (for details see Privacy Policy ). Subscriber: University of Auckland; date: 14 September 2015 Subject: Archaeology, Archaeology of Oceania Online Publication Date: Sep 2015 DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199925070.013.010 The Chronology of Colonization in Remote Oceania Timothy Rieth and Ethan Cochrane The Oxford Handbook of Prehistoric Oceania (Forthcoming) Edited by Ethan Cochrane and Terry Hunt Oxford Handbooks Online Abstract and Keywords Colonization of Remote Oceania resulted in the discovery of thousands of islands spread across an enormous area of the Pacific Ocean. Beginning as early as approximately 3500 cal. B.P. in Western Micronesia, populations began an expansion westward eventually settling East Polynesia over two millennia later. Although this general pattern is well-established, the reliability of colonization chronologies for particular islands and island groups varies significantly. This chapter synthesizes and critiques current interpretations of radiocarbon and other dating estimates for colonization of the major islands across the region and provides recommendations for future research and chronology building, highlighting the potential for Bayesian analyses. Estimates for the colonization of Hawai’i are presented as a case study. Keywords: Bayesian analyses, chronology building, colonization, radiocarbon, Remote Oceania The colonization of Remote Oceania (Green 1991a)—the vast oceanic region beyond Papua New Guinea and its nearby offshore islands—represents a heroic period of oceanic exploration unprecedented in preceding history (see map in Cochrane and Hunt essay). This process spans millennia, beginning in Western Micronesia between 3500 and 2950 cal. B.P., with the last major expansion filling East Polynesia approximately 800 to 1,000 years ago. The aim of this chapter is to synthesize the available archaeological and paleoenvironmental data relating to the timing of colonization as they are currently interpreted. In addition, we offer a programmatic assessment of geographical and contextual deficiencies and ambiguities in the current record. As part of this assessment, we review the varying estimates for the Polynesian colonization of Hawai’i as a case study. We conclude our chapter by identifying the temporal patterns of the human colonization of Remote Oceania and offer recommendations for future research. To be clear, our discussion of colonization only concerns the earliest empirical evidence for a human presence on an island. Our chapter is organized into three sections. The first section introduces the methods commonly used in Pacific archaeology to establish colonization chronologies. The second section is a regional review organized generally west to east beginning with human migration beyond the circum New Guinea Islands and Island Southeast Asia. When applicable, the Pacific culture regions (Melanesia, Micronesia, and Polynesia) are employed, but the primary structure of our presentation is the various timings of population movements that often occurred contemporaneously across these areas. The third section presents Hawai’i as a case study that offers direction and cautions for Oceania as a whole. Our concluding section suggests future directions for the development of island, archipelago, and regional chronologies. Introduction Pacific archaeologists were early adopters of the nascent radiocarbon dating technique in the 1950s, beginning with Emory’s excavation in Hawai’i (Libby 1951) and Gifford’s research in Fiji (Gifford 1951). Over the last sixty years, thousands of radiocarbon and other radiometric dates have been generated across Remote Oceania, if in an uneven distribution. Islands and archipelagos with robust cultural preservation laws and significant development, such as New Zealand, Hawai’i, and Guam, have produced the lion’s share of these results, while the absolute chronology of certain smaller, more remote islands is based on a handful of dates. Regardless of the uneven spread of radiometric dates across the region, the general pattern of west to east colonization has been well-established for many years (Kirch 2000). The tempo of this west to east pattern, as well as a number of smaller back-migrations (i.e., the Polynesian outliers), appears to be episodic and pulse-like in nature (Anderson et al. 2006; Wilmshurst et al. 2011). As we will show, within this generally accurate chronological framework, Pacific archaeologists continue to refine the precision of temporal estimates. Currently, radiocarbon dating is employed almost solely as the method for developing absolute colonization records in the Pacific. Although other radiometric dating techniques, such as U/Th ( Th) dating (e.g., Burley et al. 2012) and optically stimulated luminescence (e.g., Clark and Anderson 2009), have been used on a limited basis, relatively higher costs, constraints on samples or sample collection, and a limited number of laboratories providing these analyses presently hamper their wider application. Temporally sensitive artifact forms or styles and faunal assemblages documenting the exploitation of pristine environments have been used for relative chronologies, along with modeling of coastal geomorphology to identify ancient shorelines and beach features as potential initial colonization locales. Two issues are involved in radiocarbon sample selection: sample context and sample material (Waterbolk 1971; see also Allen and Huebert 2014; Rieth and Athens 2013; Taylor 1987). Documenting the context of a potential sample also entails understanding the factors affecting its provenience. This is essential since the dated event (cessation of the uptake of C by an organism) must be logically linked to the target event (event of archaeological interest). The potential for intrusive material introduced by burrowing animals, redeposition through wave activity, colluvial mass wasting, or other natural and cultural activities must be evaluated. Contextually secure samples should be selected that have a minimal inbuilt age (McFadgen 1982), such as short-lived plants and plant parts (e.g., seeds) and certain marine shells. The calibration of marine shell and bone collagen with a marine dietary influence requires further considerations (Rieth and Athens 2013). Essentially one needs to know where a sample is coming from, how it relates to the archaeological event, and whether it can provide a reliable age. Once radiocarbon ages have been obtained and calibrated to calendrical years, four approaches have been used by Pacific archaeologists for estimating the timing of colonization (see also Bayliss et al. 2007). The first approach accepts the oldest calibrated radiocarbon date(s) from an island 230 14

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The Chronology of Colonization in Remote Oceania

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PRINTED FROM OXFORD HANDBOOKS ONLINE (www.oxfordhandbooks.com). (c) Oxford University Press, 2015. All RightsReserved. Under the terms of the l icence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a title in OxfordHandbooks Online for personal use (for details see Privacy Policy).Subscriber: University of Auckland; date: 14 September 2015

Subject: Archaeology,ArchaeologyofOceaniaOnlinePublicationDate: Sep2015

DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199925070.013.010

TheChronologyofColonizationinRemoteOceania TimothyRiethandEthanCochraneTheOxfordHandbookofPrehistoricOceania(Forthcoming)EditedbyEthanCochraneandTerryHunt

OxfordHandbooksOnline

AbstractandKeywords

ColonizationofRemoteOceaniaresultedinthediscoveryofthousandsofislandsspreadacrossanenormousareaofthePacificOcean.Beginningasearlyasapproximately3500cal.B.P.inWesternMicronesia,populationsbegananexpansionwestwardeventuallysettlingEastPolynesiaovertwomillennialater.Althoughthisgeneralpatterniswell-established,thereliabilityofcolonizationchronologiesforparticularislandsandislandgroupsvariessignificantly.Thischaptersynthesizesandcritiquescurrentinterpretationsofradiocarbonandotherdatingestimatesforcolonizationofthemajorislandsacrosstheregionandprovidesrecommendationsforfutureresearchandchronologybuilding,highlightingthepotentialforBayesiananalyses.EstimatesforthecolonizationofHawai’iarepresentedasacasestudy.

Keywords:Bayesiananalyses,chronologybuilding,colonization,radiocarbon,RemoteOceania

ThecolonizationofRemoteOceania(Green1991a)—thevastoceanicregionbeyondPapuaNewGuineaanditsnearbyoffshoreislands—representsaheroicperiodofoceanicexplorationunprecedentedinprecedinghistory(seemapinCochraneandHuntessay).Thisprocessspansmillennia,beginninginWesternMicronesiabetween3500and2950cal.B.P.,withthelastmajorexpansionfillingEastPolynesiaapproximately800to1,000yearsago.Theaimofthischapteristosynthesizetheavailablearchaeologicalandpaleoenvironmentaldatarelatingtothetimingofcolonizationastheyarecurrentlyinterpreted.Inaddition,weofferaprogrammaticassessmentofgeographicalandcontextualdeficienciesandambiguitiesinthecurrentrecord.Aspartofthisassessment,wereviewthevaryingestimatesforthePolynesiancolonizationofHawai’iasacasestudy.WeconcludeourchapterbyidentifyingthetemporalpatternsofthehumancolonizationofRemoteOceaniaandofferrecommendationsforfutureresearch.Tobeclear,ourdiscussionofcolonizationonlyconcernstheearliestempiricalevidenceforahumanpresenceonanisland.

Ourchapterisorganizedintothreesections.ThefirstsectionintroducesthemethodscommonlyusedinPacificarchaeologytoestablishcolonizationchronologies.ThesecondsectionisaregionalrevieworganizedgenerallywesttoeastbeginningwithhumanmigrationbeyondthecircumNewGuineaIslandsandIslandSoutheastAsia.Whenapplicable,thePacificcultureregions(Melanesia,Micronesia,andPolynesia)areemployed,buttheprimarystructureofourpresentationisthevarioustimingsofpopulationmovementsthatoftenoccurredcontemporaneouslyacrosstheseareas.ThethirdsectionpresentsHawai’iasacasestudythatoffersdirectionandcautionsforOceaniaasawhole.Ourconcludingsectionsuggestsfuturedirectionsforthedevelopmentofisland,archipelago,andregionalchronologies.

Introduction

Pacificarchaeologistswereearlyadoptersofthenascentradiocarbondatingtechniqueinthe1950s,beginningwithEmory’sexcavationinHawai’i(Libby1951)andGifford’sresearchinFiji(Gifford1951).Overthelastsixtyyears,thousandsofradiocarbonandotherradiometricdateshavebeengeneratedacrossRemoteOceania,ifinanunevendistribution.Islandsandarchipelagoswithrobustculturalpreservationlawsandsignificantdevelopment,suchasNewZealand,Hawai’i,andGuam,haveproducedthelion’sshareoftheseresults,whiletheabsolutechronologyofcertainsmaller,moreremoteislandsisbasedonahandfulofdates.Regardlessoftheunevenspreadofradiometricdatesacrosstheregion,thegeneralpatternofwesttoeastcolonizationhasbeenwell-establishedformanyyears(Kirch2000).Thetempoofthiswesttoeastpattern,aswellasanumberofsmallerback-migrations(i.e.,thePolynesianoutliers),appearstobeepisodicandpulse-likeinnature(Andersonetal.2006;Wilmshurstetal.2011).Aswewillshow,withinthisgenerallyaccuratechronologicalframework,Pacificarchaeologistscontinuetorefinetheprecisionoftemporalestimates.

Currently,radiocarbondatingisemployedalmostsolelyasthemethodfordevelopingabsolutecolonizationrecordsinthePacific.Althoughotherradiometricdatingtechniques,suchasU/Th( Th)dating(e.g.,Burleyetal.2012)andopticallystimulatedluminescence(e.g.,ClarkandAnderson2009),havebeenusedonalimitedbasis,relativelyhighercosts,constraintsonsamplesorsamplecollection,andalimitednumberoflaboratoriesprovidingtheseanalysespresentlyhampertheirwiderapplication.Temporallysensitiveartifactformsorstylesandfaunalassemblagesdocumentingtheexploitationofpristineenvironmentshavebeenusedforrelativechronologies,alongwithmodelingofcoastalgeomorphologytoidentifyancientshorelinesandbeachfeaturesaspotentialinitialcolonizationlocales.

Twoissuesareinvolvedinradiocarbonsampleselection:samplecontextandsamplematerial(Waterbolk1971;seealsoAllenandHuebert2014;RiethandAthens2013;Taylor1987).Documentingthecontextofapotentialsamplealsoentailsunderstandingthefactorsaffectingitsprovenience.Thisisessentialsincethedatedevent(cessationoftheuptakeof Cbyanorganism)mustbelogicallylinkedtothetargetevent(eventofarchaeologicalinterest).Thepotentialforintrusivematerialintroducedbyburrowinganimals,redepositionthroughwaveactivity,colluvialmasswasting,orothernaturalandculturalactivitiesmustbeevaluated.Contextuallysecuresamplesshouldbeselectedthathaveaminimalinbuiltage(McFadgen1982),suchasshort-livedplantsandplantparts(e.g.,seeds)andcertainmarineshells.Thecalibrationofmarineshellandbonecollagenwithamarinedietaryinfluencerequiresfurtherconsiderations(RiethandAthens2013).Essentiallyoneneedstoknowwhereasampleiscomingfrom,howitrelatestothearchaeologicalevent,andwhetheritcanprovideareliableage.

Onceradiocarbonageshavebeenobtainedandcalibratedtocalendricalyears,fourapproacheshavebeenusedbyPacificarchaeologistsforestimatingthetimingofcolonization(seealsoBaylissetal.2007).Thefirstapproachacceptstheoldestcalibratedradiocarbondate(s)fromanisland

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orarchipelagoasrecordingtheageofcolonization.Thiswastheearliestmethodemployedforinterpretingradiocarbondeterminations,anditremainsacommon,ifimplicit,method.Thesecondapproach,reliesonachronometrichygieneprotocoltoexplicitly,yetsubjectively,removedatesfromconsiderationthatmaybeproblematicbasedonprovenience,association,orsampletype(SpriggsandAnderson1993).Thisapproachwasinitiallyadvocatedinthe1990sandhascontinuedinusetothepresent.Thethirdapproachisderivativeofchronometrichygiene,butinsteadofsimplyremovingdatesfromconsideration,alldatesareclassifiedbasedoncriteriadesignedtomeasurereliability(thatis,likelyaccuracyrelativetotargeteventandprecision)basedoncontext,samplematerial,andtheradiocarbonerrorestimate.Theresultingpoolofhighreliabilitydates,anddatesofotherreliabilityclasses,canbeevaluatedinanumberofways,andrecentstudieshaveusedsummedprobabilities(Wilmshurstetal.2011;Riethetal.2011).Lastly,thefourth,andmostrecent,approachisaBayesianmodel-basedmethod(Athensetal.2014;Denhametal.2012;Dye2011).Thisapproachstructuresradiocarbondatabasedonpriorknowledgesuchasstratigraphicandotherrelationshipsthatproviderelativeorabsolutetemporallimits(Bucketal.1996).

Inparallelwithanyoftheseapproaches,archaeologistsmayemployimplicitorexplicitmodelsforthehumancolonizationofislandswheninterpretingabsolutedatingresults.Theseoftenrangefrommorecommon-sense-typemodels(GravesandAddison1995)tomodelsbasedonbehavioralecology(Kennettetal.2006).

Inthesubsequentsection,wepresentislandandarchipelagocolonizationsummarieswithreferencetotheissuesdescribedabove.Whenavailable,wealsoreferencepaleoenvironmentalstudiesthatprovideindependentestimatesfortheonsetofhumanactivities.Thesummariesgenerallyrelyonpublishedpresentationsoftheoldestradiocarbonresults(thefirstapproachabove),althoughwedoreferencealternativestatisticalestimateswhenavailable.Assuch,itisimportanttonotethatmanyofthesedaterangesshouldbeviewedasapproximationsthatshouldberefinedthroughstatisticalmodelling,ideallyusingBayesiancalibrationmethods.Weintentionallypresentcalibratedranges(attwosigmaunlessotherwisenoted)ratherthantheearliestdatewithinadistributionasthecolonizationage.Withoutfurtherstatisticalanalysis,themostappropriateinterpretationisthatcolonizationoccurredsometimewithinthecalibrateddistribution(seeBaylissetal.2007:8–9).Wedonotincludespeculativeestimatesforcolonizationthatlackradiometricsupport.

Table1providesthecurrentcolonizationestimatesforislandsandarchipelagosdiscussedinthischapteralongwithnotationsonthereliabilityofthedatingsamplesandcorroboratingevidence,ifany.

Table1Colonizationestimatesformajorislands/archipelagoswithnotationsoncorroboratinglinesofevidence

Island/Group ColonizationDate

CorroboratingDates?

ReliableSamples?

EarlyDiag.Artifacts?

EarlyFaunalAssem.?

SupportingPaleoenviron.Data?

Sources

MarianaIslands

3550–2950cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal;marineshell

Yes No Discordant Summary:Carson(2014);Athensetal.(2004)

Reef/SantaCruzIslands

3275–2700cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;issueswithdeltaR

Yes Unreported — Green(1991b);Greenetal.(2008)

Vanuatu 3200–3000cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;marineshell

Yes Unreported — Bedfordetal.(2006)

NewCaledonia 3050–3000cal.B.P.

Yes Mostlyunident.charcoal

Yes Possibly — Sand(2001)

Fiji 3130–3010cal.B.P.(older),3010–2870cal.B.P.(younger)

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal;marineshell

Yes Yes Agreement Hopeetal.(2009);Summaries:Denhametal.(2012);NunnandPetchey(2013)

Palau 3100–2900cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal;marineshell

Yes No Discordant AthensandWard(2001);Clarketal.(2006);Liston(2005,2013)

Tonga 2846–2830B.P.(Nukuleka),2850–2750

Yes coralabraders(U/Th);unident.

Yes Yes Agreementwithsea-levelchangeandcoastalgeomorphology)

BurleyandConnaughton(2007);Burleyetal.

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2850–2750cal.B.P.

unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal;marineshell

Burleyetal.(1999,2001,2012)

Sāmoa 2800–2400cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal;marineshell

Yes Yes — Cochraneetal.(2013);KirchandHunt(1993);Petchey(2001)

Futuna 2300–2200cal.B.P.

No Unident.charcoal

Yes No — Kirch(1981)

Chuuk 2300–1750cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal

Yes Unreported — Shutler(1984)

Niue 2000–1600cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal

No No — WalterandAnderson(2002)

Yap 2000–1700cal.B.P.

Yes Marineshell;unreportedmaterial

Yes Unreported Discordant IntohandLeach(1985);Takayama(1982)

Kosrae 2100–1750cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal

Yes No Paleoenviron.evidencefordisturbancepost-datestheearliestarchaeologicaldatesby~500years

Athens(1995)

Kiribati(GilbertIslands)

2150–1750cal.B.P.

Yes Short-livedtaxacharcoal

No No — DiPiazza(1999)

MarshallIslands

2000–1600cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal;marineshell;foraminfera

No Yes Agreementwithsea-levelchangeandatollemergence/geomorphology

Beardsley(1994);Riley(1987);Weisler(1999,2001);Weisleretal.(2012)

Pohnpei 1900–1700cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal

Yes No — Athens(1990);Galipaud(2000)

Rotuma 1300–1050cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;ratbone;humanbone

No No — Ladefogedetal.(1998)

SocietyIslands

960–800cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal

Yes Possibly Slightlydiscordant AndersonandSinoto(2002);Kahn(2012);Wilmshurstetal.(2011);Parkes(1997)

Marquesas 950–750cal. Yes Unident. Yes Yes — Allen(2004);

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Marquesas 950–750cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal

Yes Yes — Allen(2004);AllenandMcAllister(2010,2013);AndersonandSinoto(2002);Conte(2002);ConteandAnderson(2003);Rollett(1998);RollettandConte(1995)

Tuvalu 1070–770cal.B.P.

Yes Unreported Unreported Unreported — Dickinsonetal.(1990)

SouthernCookIslands

900–680cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal

Yes Yes Discordant(Atiu) AllenandMorrison(2013);AllenandWallace(2007);Kirchetal.(1995);Parkes(1997)

AustralIslands 850–750cal.B.P.(Rapa),670–550cal.B.P.(Rurutu)

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal;marineshell

Yes Yes Yes(Rapa) Bollt(2008);Kennettetal.(2012);PrebbleandAnderson(2012)

TuamotuIslands

~1,100–770cal.B.P.

No Unreported;unident.charcoal

No No Unreported Chazine(1985);Hatanakaetal.(1978)

Hawai’i 950–850cal.B.P.

Yes Short-livedtaxacharcoal

No Unreported Yes Athensetal.(2014)

PitcairnGroup 950–730cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal

No Yes — Weisler(1995)

Mangareva 920–660cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal;landsnailshell;birdbone

Yes Yes — Andersonetal.(2003);GreenandWeisler(2002);Kirchetal.(2010)

LineIslands 800–500cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal

No No — Andersonetal.(2000,2002);DiPiazzaandPearthree(2001)

RapaNui 750–700cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal

No No Agreementwithsomeanalyses

HuntandLipo(2006);Mannetal.(2008);Mulrooney(2013)

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Tokelau 750–550cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal;marineshell

No Unreported — Petcheyetal.(2010)

PhoenixGroup(Kiribati)

750–500cal.B.P.

Yes Short-livedtaxacharcoal

No No — DiPiazzaandPearthree(2004)

NewZealand 720–670cal.B.P.

Yes Short-livedtaxacharcoal;eggshell;rat-gnawedseeds

Yes Yes Yes Highametal.(1999);McGloneandWilmshurst(1999);Wilmshurstetal.(2008)

AucklandIslands

750–700cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal

No No — Anderson(2005)

NorfolkIsland 700cal.B.P. Yes Unident.charcoal;short-livedtaxacharcoal

No No — Andersonetal.(2001)

KermadecIslands

650–550cal.B.P.

Yes Short-livedcharcoal

Yes Yes — HighamandJohnson(1997)

NorthernCookIslands

550–300cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.material

Yes Unreported — Chikamori(1998);ChikamoriandYoshida(1988)

ChathamIslands

450–400cal.B.P.

Yes Unident.charcoal;marineshell

No Yes — McFadgen(1994)

Note:Columnheadingsreferencethefollowing:CorroboratingDatesaredatesinstratigraphicsequenceordatesofcomparableagefromthesameorotherdepositsontheisland/archipelago.EarlyDiagnosticArtifactsaretemporallydiagnosticartifactformsorstyles;formanyislandstheremaynotbeanestablishedtemporallysensitivematerialculturesequence.EarlyFaunalAssemblagesareextinctavifaunaorothertaxa;documenteddiminishmentinpreysize,abundance,ordiversitythatmayrelatetoexploitationofpristinecommunities.SupportingPaleoenvironmentalDataarepaleoenvironmentalcoringorcoastalgeomorphologicalinvestigationsorreconstructions.Thetableisorganizedinageneralchronologicalsequencefromoldesttoyoungestcolonizationdate.

RegionalReview

BeyondNearOceania:PopulationExpansiontotheMarianaIslandsandIslandMelanesia(3500–2700cal.B.P.)

Clicktoviewlarger

Figure1 Close-upofthewesternportionofRemoteOceaniawiththecurrentcolonizationestimatespresented(cal.B.P.)

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AftermillenniainIslandSoutheastAsiaandNearOceania,multiplepopulationsinitiatedmigrationsfurtherintothePacificbetweenapproximately3500and2700cal.B.P.(Figure1).Oncurrentdata,colonizationoftheMarianaIslandsislargelycontemporaneouswiththeearliestLapitapotterydepositsinMussauneartheBismarckArchipelago(Denhametal.2012;cf.CarsonandKurashina2012;Carson2014).Duringthesubsequent~500years,groupscontinuedtoexpandintheSouthernHemispherereachingasfarasFiji,andintheNorthernHemispheresettlingPalau.

MarianaIslandsColonizationoftheMarianaIslandsbetween3500and2950cal.B.P.isattestedbyradiocarbondatesfrommultiplelocationsacrossthearchipelago(CarsonandKurashina2012;Carson2014;seealsoFitzpatrickessay),althoughCarsonarguesforaslightlyearlierdate(cf.Clarketal.2010).Pre-2950cal.B.P.dateshavebeenobtainedfromGuam,Saipan,andTinian(seeCarson2014:table4.1).Theredundancyofthissuiteofdateshasbeenusedasanimplicitmeasureofaccuracyforthecolonizationestimate,thoughnostatisticalanalyseshavebeenundertaken.Earlypotteryformsandstylesareassociatedwiththesedates,althoughrobustfaunalcollectionsarelacking.Anoutstandingissue,however,forestablishingthetimingofthecolonizationoftheMarianaIslandsisthesignificantdiscrepancybetweenpaleoenvironmentalestimatesat~4300cal.B.P.(Athensetal.2004)andthearchaeologicalrecord.

InitialLapitaExpansionintoRemoteOceaniaThemovementofpopulationswithLapitapotteryintoRemoteOceania,includingtheSoutheastSolomonIslands(Reef/SantaCruzIslandsandTaumako),Vanuatu,andNewCaledoniaisfairlyrapid(cf.Terrell’sessay).ColonizationoftheReef/SantaCruzIslandswaspossiblybetween3150and2950cal.B.P.(Green1991b),althoughrecentworkbySheppardetal.(2015)suggestsadateolderthan3000cal.B.P.isveryunlikely.Taumakowaslikelysettledshortlythereafter(LeachandDavidson2008).ColonizationofVanuatuappearstohavebeennearlycontemporaneousbetween3200and3000cal.B.P.(Bedfordetal.2006),althoughDenhametal.(2012)estimatecolonizationofVanuatubetween~3250and3100cal.B.P.(68.2%highestposteriordensity[HPD]region)usingaBayesiancalibrationmodel.ExpansiontoNewCaledoniatothesouthwestandFijidueeastoccurredwithinseveralgenerationsofVanuatu’scolonization.Sand(2001)calculatesLapitacolonizationacrossmostofNewCaledoniabeginning~3050to3000cal.B.P.

RecentestimatesfortheLapitacolonizationofFijivaryatextremesby~250years,beingslightlyyoungerthanNewCaledonia.IntheirreviewofalargesuiteofLapita-associatedradiocarbondates,ClarkandAnderson(2009)suggestcolonizationbetween~3050and2950cal.B.P.,whileDenhametal.(2012)useasmallersubsetofdatesintheirBayesiancalibrationthatestimatescolonizationbetween3130and3010cal.B.P.(68.2%HPD).UsingadifferentlystructuredBayesianmodel,NunnandPetchey(2013)estimate~3010and2870cal.B.P.(68.2%HPD)fortheMatanamuanidepositonNaiganiIsland(Irwinetal.2011),whichtheyconsidertobetheoldestsecurelydateddepositinthearchipelago.Theysuggestthatolderestimatescanbeattributedtoinbuiltageofunidentifiedwoodcharcoaldatingsamples(NunnandPetchey2013:30).MostFijianpaleoenvironmentalsequencesareconsistentinsupportofhumanindicatorsbetween3100and2700cal.B.P.(Hopeetal.2009).

FurtherExpansioninWesternMicronesiaThecolonizationofPalauinWesternMicronesia(Clarketal.2006;Liston2005;andseeFitzpatrickessay)isgenerallyconcurrentwithLapitacolonizationofNewCaledoniaandFiji.TheearliestknownculturaldepositisfromUlongIsland,anupraisedlimestoneislandtothesouthofthemainvolcanicislandofBabeldaob.TheUlongdepositprovidesmultipledatesforinitialoccupationby~3100‒2900cal.B.P.(Clarketal.2006).SeveraldatesfromuplandlocationsonBabeldaobhavecomparablecalibratedages,relatingtoanthropogenicburning,earthworkconstructionfilland,morerarely,occupationdeposits(Liston2005,2013).Theseestimateshavereliedonreviewsoftheoldestradiocarbondatesandchronometrichygieneassessments.AswiththeMarianas,theearliestarchaeologicaldatesarediscordantwithpaleoenvironmentalevidencethatsuggestscolonizationby~4,300cal.B.P.(AthensandWard2001).

FinalLapitaExpansion:TongaandSāmoa(2850‒2700cal.B.P.)

ThecolonizationchronologyforTongaisrobustandbasedonnumerousradiocarbonandU/Thseriesdates(BurleyandConnaughton2007;Burleyetal.1999,2001,2012).MultiplelinesofevidenceindicateaninitialLapitalandfallonNukuleka(Burleyetal.2010)andthedatingprecisionofthiseventisimpressiveanduniquefortheregion,withaU/Thdateofacoralabraderestimatingcolonizationbetween2846and2830B.P.(Burleyetal.2012).Generallycomparableoverlappingageshavebeenobtainedthroughoutthearchipelagoindicatingrapidandsystematicexplorationfromsouthtonorth(seeBurleyandAddisonessay).

LapitacolonizationofSāmoaiscertain,althoughcurrentevidenceisforalimitedhumanpresenceinthearchipelagountil~2500cal.B.P.(BurleyandAddisonessay;Cochraneetal.2013;Riethetal.2008).Mulifanua,asubmergeddepositoffofthewesterntipof‘UpoluIsland,istheonlydepositwithdentate-stampedLapitaceramics.Fourdateshavebeenobtainedforthedeposit,severalofwhichareproblematicfordifferentreasons,leadingPetchey(2001)tosuggest2880‒2750cal.B.P.(68%)asthemostlikelyagebasedonthecombinedprobabilitiesoftwodates.AlthoughPolynesianplainwaredepositsarerelativelynumerousacrossthearchipelago,additionalLapitadepositsremainelusive.

Post-LapitaColonizationintheSoutheastSolomonIslands(3000‒2400cal.B.P.)

TikopiaandAnutaarePolynesianoutliers(seeFeinbergandScaglion2012)withintheSoutheastSolomonIslandsthatweresettledbyLapita-associatedpopulationsmillenniabeforethedevelopmentofAncestralPolynesiaculture(KirchandGreen2001).Potteryispresent,butdentate-stampeddecorationandthesuiteofLapitavesselformsarelacking.TheearliestdepositsonTikopiadateto~3000‒2450cal.B.P.(basedontheoldestdates)andareassociatedwithearlyceramictypes,shelladzeforms,shellornaments,andfaunalassemblagescharacteristicoftheexploitationofpristineenvironments(KirchandYen1982).TheAnutasequenceissimilarwiththeoldestdatefromthebasalstratumcalibratingto3250‒2780B.P.,withtwootherdatesfromthedeposityoungerbyseveralcenturiesat2790‒2350cal.B.P.(KirchandRosendahl1973).Datesfrombothislandsarefromunidentifiedcharcoalandaremeasured,ratherthanconventional,radiocarbonages.

TheCentralPacific

ThissectionsummarizesthecolonizationhistoriesofthesmallerislandsofWestPolynesiaandcentralMicronesia.Toasubstantialdegree,theseislands,particularlytheWestPolynesianislandsnearTongaandSāmoa,havebeensubjecttoalimiteddegreeofinvestigation.Therefore,thesechronologiesmaybesubjecttothegreatestamountofrevisionwithfutureresearch.

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SmallIslandsofWestPolynesiaTheinfillingofthesmallerislandsofWestPolynesiaoccurredinthreeperiods.TheearliestdatesforUvea(alsocalledWallis)are3720‒2780cal.B.P.onunidentifiedcharcoalinalayeratthesiteofUtupoathatcontainsceramicswithsimpleLapitadecorations(Frimigacci2000;Sand1998)and2800‒2450cal.B.P.onTridacnasp.atthesiteofUtulevefromalayerwithsimilarceramics(Sand1998).GiventhepresenceofceramicswithsimpleLapitadecorationsatthesesites,itislikelytheywerecolonizedatapproximatelythesametimeasSāmoa.Incontrast,Futuna’sabsolutechronologyisbasedontwodatesfromunidentifiedcharcoalsuggestingcolonization500ormoreyearslater,byatleast~2300‒2000cal.B.P.(Kirch1981).TheprobablecolonizationofNiueislaterstill,~2000‒1600cal.B.P.(WalterandAnderson2002),althoughmostoftheavailabledateshavelargeerrorrangesresultinginimprecisecalibrationestimates.Thearchaeologicalrecordoftheislandisaceramic,unlikeUveaandFutuna.

ThelowislandsofWestPolynesiaweresettledpotentiallyamillenniumaftertheinitialinfillingoftheregionandrepresentcontinuedexplorationoftheregion.Theseislandsarepoorlydated,withrecentresearchinTokelauasanexception(Petcheyetal.2010).ColonizationofRotumaby~1300‒1050cal.B.P.issuggestedbyalimitednumberofradiocarbondatesfromceramic-bearingdeposits(Ladefogedetal.1998).Pottery-bearingdepositsonTuvaluhavebeendated~1070‒770cal.B.P.(Dickinsonetal.1990).TheRotumaandTuvaludatesrequirefurthercorroborationsincetheywereobtainedfromunidentifiedwoodcharcoal,orinthecaseofTuvalu,unidentifiedmaterial.TokelauhasamorerobustsuiteofdateswiththeearliestagesfromFakaofo,Atafu,andNukunonoat750‒550cal.B.P.(Petcheyetal.2010).

TheCaroline,Marshall,andGilbert(Kiribati)IslandsDatesfortheinitialcolonizationofYap(IntohandLeach1985;Takayama1982),Chuuk(Shutler1984),Kosrae(Athens1995),andPohnpei(Athens1990andthisvolume;Galipaud2000)arefairlyconsistentatabout2100‒1700cal.B.P.Theseestimatesarebasedononeorafewoldestdateswithoutstatisticalanalyses.Althougheachislandhasmultiplecorroboratingdates,mostwereobtainedfromunidentifiedcharcoal,orinthecaseofYaparedatesfrommarineshellwithpotentialinbuiltageorfromunreportedmaterial.Paleoenvironmentalcoringstudieshaveeitherfailedtoidentifythetypicalcolonizationsignature(AthensandStevenson2012forPohnpei)orsuggestcolonizationsignificantlypre-datingtheearliestarchaeologicalevidence(DodsonandIntoh1999forYap).

Colonizationofatleastsomeofthelowislandsofthisregion,namelyNikunau(2150‒1750cal.B.P.[DiPiazza1999])withinKiribati,andUtrōk(~1900‒1800cal.B.P.[Weisler2001;Weisleretal.2012]),Maloelap(~2050‒1850cal.B.P.[Weisler1999;Weisleretal.2012]),Kwajalein(2070‒1700cal.B.P.[Beardsley1994]),andMajuro(~2000‒1600cal.B.P.[Riley1987])withintheMarshallIslands,isgenerallycontemporaneouswiththehighislands(andisalsobasedonareviewoftheoldestdateswithoutfurtheranalyses).DatessuggestingsettlementofBikiniAtollasearlyas3000cal.B.P.(Streck1990)appeartorelatetolargeinbuiltage,consideringthatestimatesforthetimingofatollformation(Weisleretal.2012)indicatethatatleastsomeatollsonlyformedandstabilizedbetween~3000and2000cal.B.P.Dickinson’s(2009)calculationofsea-leveldrawdownandstabilizationoftheatollsinthisregionissubstantiallylater.

ColonizationofNukuoroandKapingamarangi,PolynesianoutlierswithintheCarolineIslands,wassignificantlylater.TheoldestdatesfromNukuorowereobtainedfromdogteeth,whichatfacevaluesuggestcolonizationby~1000cal.B.P.(Davidson1992).However,thesedatesareproblematicfortworeasons:one,itisunclearwhatpretreatmentmethodwasusedforcollagenextraction,andtwo,noisotopicmeasurementswerecalculatedandthedegreethatamarinecalibrationcurveisnecessary(duetoapartialmarine-baseddiet)isunknown.Kapingamarangiisabitmorereliablydatedat~750‒550cal.B.P.,althoughthesedateswereobtainedfromunidentifiedwoodcharcoalandorganicsfrombulksoilsamples(LeachandWard1981).

EastPolynesia

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Figure2 Close-upoftheeasternportionofRemoteOceaniawiththecurrentcolonizationestimatespresented(cal.B.P.)

ExpansionintoEastPolynesiarepresentsthelastmajorpopulationthrustinOceania(Figure2).Thistriangularregion,withverticesatNewZealand(Aotearoa),Hawai’i,andRapaNui,hasgarneredthemajorityofarchaeologicalresearchinthePacificandhasthegreatestcorpusofradiometricdates.EstimatesofthetimingofPolynesiancolonizationhavevariedsignificantlyduringthelastseveraldecades,largelyreflectingchangesinthesophisticationofradiocarbondatingtechnologyandarchaeologists’analysesandinterpretationsoftheseresults.Althoughstillanactivetopicofdebate,mostresearcherswouldagreethatinitialcolonizationfromWestPolynesiabeganaround950‒1000cal.B.P.withmostoftheregioncolonizedby700‒750cal.B.P.(AllenandKahn2010;Mulrooneyetal.2011;Wilmshurstetal.2011;forslightlyearlier,butoverlappingestimates,seeKirch2010andKirchandKahn2007).

CentralEastPolynesiaTheCookIslandsareatthewesternmarginofCentralEastPolynesiaandmaybeexpectedtohavetheearliestcolonizationhistoryfortheregion.Recentradiocarbondates(severalfromshort-livedplantparts)andtheapplicationofaBayesianmodel-basedchronologyestimateanageof~900‒680cal.B.P.fortheearliestevidenceofuseoftheMoturakaurockshelterand700‒530cal.B.P.fortheinitialoccupationoftheUreiasite,Aitutaki(AllenandMorrison2013;AllenandWallace2007).MultipledatessuggestcontemporaneouscolonizationofMangaia(Kirchetal.1995),althoughnoneofthedatesaresolelyfromidentifiedshort-livedplanttaxa.Withtheexclusionofanomalouslyolddates,theearliestagesfromthenorthernCookIslandsarelater,between~550and300cal.B.P.(Chikamori1998;ChikamoriandYoshida1988;Chikamorietal.1995).TheearlyendoftheMoturakausequenceistwohundredyearsolderthanWilmshurstetal.’s(2011)estimateof700‒669cal.B.P.forthesouthernCookIslands.

IntheAustralIslands,archaeologicalinvestigationshaveproducedradiocarbondatesforRurutuandRapa.Bollt(2008)obtainedasuiteofdatesfrom

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Peva,Rurutu,suggestingcolonizationby670‒550cal.B.P.,basedonunidentifiedwoodcharcoalsamples.UsingaBayesianmodel,Kennettetal.(2012)estimateinitialcolonizationofRapabetween~1150and650cal.B.P.(95%HPD),withthegreatestprobabilitybetween~850and750cal.B.P.(68.2%HDP).Withoneexception,thedatesusedinthismodelarefromunidentifiedcharcoal.Theseresultsaregenerallyconsistentwiththepaleoenvironmentalsequence(PrebbleandAnderson2012).

EventhoughtheSocietyIslandsarecentrallylocatedinEastPolynesiaandconsistofrelativelylargeislands,datingtheinitialcolonizationoftheSocietyIslandsisstillplaguedwithuncertainty.Wilmshurstetal.(2011:supplementalmaterial)listaseriesofpreviouslyunpublished,reliabledatesfortheSocietyIslandsthatgenerallycalibratebetween~960and800cal.B.P.(~925‒830cal.B.P.basedontheirsummedprobabilityanalysis);nospecificprovenienceinformationisprovided.Kahn’s(2012)recentsingledatefromMo’oreaissomewhatyounger,providinganageof900‒685cal.B.P.fortheearliestarchaeologicalevidencefromthatisland.Theseresultsareslightlydiscordant,about200‒250yearsyoungerthanParkes’s(1997)paleoenvironmentalrecordforpresumedhumandisturbancefromLakeTemae,Mo’orea.Improvedprecisioninthedatingoffuturepaleoenvironmentalsequencesmayrectifythisdiscrepancy.AlthoughLepofskyetal.’s(1992)datesonanaerobicallypreservedcoconutsareradiometricallyreliable,thepre-humanpresenceofcoconutinthearchipelago(Parkes1997)makesanassociationbetweenthesedatesandhumancolonizationuncertain.AndersonandSinoto(2002)suggestasimilarageasMo’orea(~900‒500cal.B.P.)forVaito’otia-Fa’ahia,Huahine,basedonaseriesofdatesfrommarineshellsamples.

AcrosssoutheasternPolynesia—Mangareva,thePitcairnGroup,andRapaNui—relativelyconsistentchronologieshavebeenproposed.FortheMangarevaIslands,basalculturaldepositsonKamakaIslandhavebeendatedto~900‒660cal.B.P.usingunidentifiedwoodcharcoal(GreenandWeisler2002)withayoungerageof~800‒670cal.B.P.fromRikitea,MangarevaIsland(Andersonetal.2003).Morerecently,Kirchetal.(2010)obtaineddatesfromdifferentsamplematerialsrecoveredfromtheearliestportionoftheOnemeaculturaldeposits,TaravaiIsland.Theoldestdateonshort-livedcharcoalis~920‒750cal.B.P.DatesfromProcellariidaeboneandpulmonatemolluscshells(Polynesian-introducedspecies)provideacalibratedrangeoveracenturyolderat~1050‒810cal.B.P.MultipledatesfromunidentifiedcharcoalprovidecomparableagesforHendersonIslandinthePitcairnGroup(Weisler1995).Wilmshurstetal.(2011)estimatedcolonizationofMangarevabetween~840and675cal.B.P.basedonthreeofKirchetal.’s(2010)dates.

TheMarquesansequencehasseenrevisiontowardayoungercolonizationagesinceSuggs’s(1961)seminalresearch.Are-evaluationoftheregionalchronologybySpriggsandAnderson(1993),renewedfieldworkatHa’atuatuaandHane(AndersonandSinoto2002;RollettandConte1995),andnewresearchacrossthearchipelago(Allen2004;AllenandMcAllister2010,2013;Conte2002;ConteandAnderson2003;Rollett1998)hasproducedestimatesforcolonizationbetween950and750cal.B.P.basedonassessmentsoftheoldestradiocarbondates.PossibleearliercolonizationatHa’atuatua(RollettandConte1995)requirescorroboration.Wilmshurstetal.(2011)estimatecolonizationtohaveoccurredlaterbetween~750and670cal.B.P.

InvestigationsonKiritimati(Christmas)Island,a“mystery”islandwithintheLineIslands,producedasuiteofdates,allofwhicharefromunidentifiedcharcoalandtwoTridacnasp.shells(Andersonetal.2000,2002;DiPiazzaandPearthree2001).Resultsfromtheinvestigationsarecomparable,indicatingearliestPolynesiancolonizationbetween~700and500cal.B.P.DiPiazzaandPearthree(2001)alsoprovideasinglereliabledatesuggestiveofearlierPolynesiancolonizationbetween~800and670cal.B.P.onTabuaeran(Fanning)Island.Sinoto(1973)obtainedasimilardate,alongwithasignificantlyolderdate,fromhisexcavationsontheisland;however,theseresultsaresuspectduetosystemicproblemswiththeGakushuinLaboratory,whichprocessedthesamples(SpriggsandAnderson1993).Usingasubsetofthereliabledatesfromthemorerecentinvestigations,Wilmshurstetal.(2011)calculatedacolonizationdateof~675‒660cal.B.P.fortheLineIslands.Nodatesareavailablefortheotherislandsinthegroup,whichhavenotbeensubjecttointensivearchaeologicalresearchalthoughsurfacestructuresandartifactshavebeennotedonMaldenIslandandTeraina(Washington).Similarages,~750‒500cal.B.P.,havebeenobtainedfortheotherPolynesian“mysteryislands”Manra(Sydney)andOrona(Hull)inthePhoenixGroup(Kiribati)(DiPiazzaandPearthree2004).

ThechronologyofcolonizationoftheTuamotuIslandsismarginallyoutlined,atbest.Chazine(1985)providesanuncalibratedageof~800B.P.forsubsurfacedepositsofboneandshellfishnearanunnamedmarae(ceremonialarchitecture)ontheislandofReao,althoughthematerialdatedandlaboratoryisnotgiven.Additionally,Sinoto(inHatanakaetal.1978)excavatedathincharcoallenswithnoculturalmaterialnearamaraenamedHitianaunauonReao.Unidentifiedcharcoalreturnedadaterangeof~1100‒770cal.B.P.

TheCornersofthePolynesianTriangleNewZealand,RapaNui,andHawai’iprovideevidenceforcolonizationthatisgenerallycontemporaneouswithmanypartsofCentralEastPolynesia.TheresultsforNewZealandandRapaNuiarepresentedherewithalongerdiscussionofHawai’iasacasestudyforfutureresearchattheendofthechapter.

NewZealandpresentsthemostrobustcolonizationchronology,andnotsurprisingly,theleastcontroversial.Archaeologicalandpaleoenvironmentalevidence,includingdatesfromthecommensalPacificrat(Rattusexulans)andrat-gnawedseeds,convergeonacolonizationestimateof~720‒670cal.B.P.(Highametal.1999;McGloneandWilmshurst1999;Wilmshurstetal.2008,2011;seealsoHoldawayandJacomb2000).

MultiplesmallislandgroupssurroundingNewZealandprovideevidenceforsomeofthelastPolynesianeffortsatexplorationandcolonization(seeAnderson’sessay,SouthernPolynesia),representinganearlyradialexpansionfromNewZealand(Anderson2005:798‒799).Short-durationoccupationofthesubpolarAucklandIslands(andprobablytheSnares)isestimatedaround750‒700cal.B.P.(Anderson2005),withcolonizationofNorfolkIslandaround700B.P.(Andersonetal.2001),theKermadecsbetween~650and550cal.B.P.(HighamandJohnson1997),andChathamIslandbetween~450and400cal.B.P.(McFadgen1994).

ColonizationofRapaNuiaround750‒700cal.B.P.isestimatedusingthesummedcumulativeprobabilitydistributionofaselectnumberofreliabledates(HuntandLipo2006;Wilmshurstetal.2011).Usingthesamedatesbutadifferentstatisticalmethod,Shepardsonetal.(2008)haveestimatedcolonizationapproximately300yearsearlier.Althoughthereisafairlylargecorpusofarchaeologicaldatesfortheisland,dateswithcalibratedagespre~750B.P.areofquestionablereliabilityandrequirecorroboration(Martinsson-WallinandCrockford2002;Mulrooney2013).Archaeologicalevidenceforcolonizationbetween~750and700cal.B.P.issupportedbyrecentpaleoenvironmentalstudiesdocumentingsubstantialsoilerosionandburningshortlyafterthisperiod(Mannetal.2008).

Hawai’iasaCaseStudy

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Figure3 Colonizationestimates(AD)forHawai’iplottedbypublicationdate.Estimatespriorto1950reliedonoralhistoriesandgenealogies;alllaterestimatesarebasedonradiocarbondates.Thedark(68.2%HPD)andlightcolored(95.4%HPD)bandsrunninghorizontallynearthetopofthefigurerepresentthecolonizationestimatespresentedbyAthensetal.(2014).

ThefigurehasbeenmodifiedslightlyfromtheoriginalavailablecourtesyofTomDyeandWikimediaCommons(https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Settlement-estimates-hawaii.svg).

Hawai’iisavaluablecasestudyforexaminingestimatesofislandcolonizationduringthelastsixtyyears.Attheextremes,estimateshavevariedbyover1,000years,andasdepictedinFigure3thetrendintheseestimatesdoesnotrepresentasteadyprogressionandimprovementbutrathersubstantialrandomvariation.Thisisstillavigorouslydebatedtopic,butanewconsensusisformingaroundcolonizationbetween~950and700cal.B.P.(Athensetal.2014;Dye2011;Kirch2011;Riethetal.2011;Wilmshurstetal.2011;Mulrooneyetal.2011).Whatshouldbeexpectedinsubsequentyearsisarefinementandincreasedprecisionwithinthistimeframeof~250years.

Hawai’ihasasuiteofradiocarbondatesnumberinginthethousands,althoughnocomprehensivedatabasehasbeencreated(seeRiethetal.2011,forHawai’iIsland;Carson2005,forKaua’i;Duarte2012,forMaui;andMcCoy2007,forMoloka’i).InitialassessmentsofthePolynesiancolonizationofthearchipelagoreliedonoraltraditions(e.g.,Emory1928).Withtheadventofradiocarbondatingcolonizationestimatesreliedontheoldestagesforparticularsites(e.g.,Emoryetal.1959),andtheapplicationofthisapproachcontinuedforthenextseveraldecades(e.g.,Kirch1985).Beginningintheearly1990s,someassessmentsstartedtorelyonvisualinspectionoflargerdatasetsofradiocarbondates(e.g.,HuntandHolsen1991).Throughthatdecade,colonizationwithinthefirstseveralcenturiesA.D.wasdeemedplausible(e.g.,Kirch2000),ifnotrepresentingthemajorityview.Duringthelastfifteentotwentyyears,threeprimaryissueshaveledtoincremental,yetsignificant,shiftstowardayoungercolonizationage.

First,paleoenvironmentalsequencesfromO’ahuandKaua’ihaverecordedvegetationchangeandincreasesinmicroscopiccharcoalconsistentwithhumanactivitiesbetween~1050and850cal.B.P.(Athens1997;BurneyandBurney2003).Second,anincreasedawarenessaboutappropriatedatingsamples,namelyshort-livedplanttaxaorparts,andthepotentialforinbuiltageinunidentifiedwoodcharcoalhasresultedingreatercareinsampleselectionandmorereliableresults(Dye1994,2000;RiethandAthens2013).Third,nearlyalloftheputativeearlysiteshavebeenre-datedorreassessedandfoundtobecenturiesyoungerthanoriginallythought(Dye1992;DyeandPantaleo2010;Kahnetal.2014;KirchandMcCoy2007).

Currently,manyarchaeologistsworkinginHawaiiareregularlycompletingwoodcharcoalidentificationsaspartofdatingsampleselection.Usingthispoolofreliabledates,themostrecentmeta-analysesforestimatingcolonizationhavetakentwodifferentapproaches.Oneapproachhasusedcumulativesummedprobabilitiesrelyingonasubjectivecutoffdateof650cal.B.P.bywhichtime100%confidenceisassumedforcolonization.Theseanalyseshaveconsistentlyidentified~730‒690cal.B.P.astheperiodofPolynesiancolonization(Wilmshurstetal.2011[archipelago-wide];Riethetal.2011[Hawai’iIsland];Duarte2012[Maui]).ThesearetheyoungestcolonizationestimatesfortheHawaiianIslandsbyatleastonehundredyears.

Atleastthreeissuesneedtobeaddressedwiththismethod.First,thepoolsofreliabledateshavebeensmall(n=16to22)raisingthepossibilitythatsamplesizeiseffectingtheresults(e.g.,Williams2012).Second,usingthesamesetofdatesbutvaryingthe100%certaintycutoffdateaffectsthecumulativeprobabilitycurve(Mulrooneyetal.2011).Sincethisisasubjectiveparameterwithinthecalculation,aparticularcutoffdatemaybeintroducingabiastowardayoungerorolderestimate,whichcannotbeassessedwithinthestructureofthemethod.Third,relatedtothesecondissue,thereisnoindependentmeansforassessingtheresultsofthisapproach,thatis,amodelshouldbestructuredsothatoneknowsiftheansweriscorrectorincorrect.

ThesecondapproachusesaBayesianmodel-basedcalibrationthatincorporatespaleoenvironmentaldatawithapoolofreliablearchaeologicalradiocarbondates.ThisisaPacificexampleofwhatBayliss(2009)hastermedthe“thirdradiocarbonrevolution.”Thesimplemodelhastwoanalyticalgroups:apre-colonizationgroupcomprisedofdatesobtainedfromportionsofpaleoenvironmentalsequencesthatareindicativeofpristinenativeenvironments;and,apost-colonizationgroupthatincludesradiocarbondatesobtainedfromPolynesianplantintroductions,thecommensalPolynesianrat,andshort-livedplanttaxa/partsfromdefinitivecombustionfeatures.Themodelisstructuredwiththeendofthepre-colonizationperiodequivalenttothestartofthepost-colonizationperiod;thisistheestimationofinterestforcalculatingcolonization.OriginallypresentedbyDye(2011)usingasingledateforthepre-colonizationperiodandsixdatesforthepost-colonizationperiod,Athensetal.(2014)expandedthedatasettotwopaleoenvironmentaldatesandthirty-threearchaeologicaldates,thusgreatlyimprovingtheprecisionoftheestimate.The95%HPDrangeis1010‒820cal.B.P.witha67%HPDof950‒850cal.B.P.RemovingthedatesfromPolynesianratbones,duetotheuncertaintyregardingamarinedietarycomponentfortheseanimals,the95%HPDshiftstotherightbyapproximatelyeightyyearsto950‒740cal.B.P.TheseresultsaresupportedbyareanalysisoftheOrdyPondpaleoenvironmentalsequence(Athensetal.2014).Unlikethecumulativesummedprobabilityapproach,theBayesianmodelprovidesparametersforassessinganyreliablearchaeologicaldateagainstanindependentdataset(i.e.,paleoenvironmentaldata).

IthasnotbeenasteadyprogressiontowardamorepreciseandaccurateestimationofthePolynesiancolonizationofHawai’i.However,agreaterappreciationofdatingsampleselection,agrowingbodyofreliableradiocarbondates,andinnovativestatisticalapproacheshaveresultedingreatstridesduringthelastdecade,andespeciallythelastfewyears.Thewindowoftimeforcolonizationisnowestimatedat~200‒100years,withnosupportforestimatesearlierthan~1000‒950cal.B.P.InsightsgainedfromHawai’iarereadilyapplicabletoislandsacrossthePacific,aswellasotherregions.

DirectionsforFutureResearch:DevelopingRobustChronologies

ThehumancolonizationofthevastareaofRemoteOceaniaistrulyastounding.Withwoodencanoesandwovensails,groupslocatedandsettlednearlyallhabitableislands.ExplorationandcolonizationbeganoverthreemillenniaagointhewesternPacificandended~700‒650yearsagoinEastPolynesia.Formostislands,however,thecorpusofdatesistoosmallforstatisticallyvalidestimations,andmostofthesedatesarefromunidentifiedcharcoalwiththepotentialforinbuiltage(seeTable1).Manyofthecolonizationrangespresentedinthischapterwillbesubjecttorevisionwithfutureresearch,andextantchronologiesshouldbeunderstoodashypothesestobetestedwithmorerigorousdatingregimes.

Withaneyetowardthedevelopmentofthemostreliablecolonizationchronologiespossible,weprovidesixstepsforconsideration.

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1.Identifythepotentiallocationsofearlysitesusingexplicitgeographical/geomorphologicalcriteriaandmodeling.Examplesofthisapproacharecommonacrosstheregion(e.g.,Burleyetal.2001;KirchandHunt1993),andithasbeenveryproductive.ApplicationofthisapproachatthescaleofanislandsuchasO’ahuorHawai’iIslandhasnotbeenattempted,butiswarranted.2.Employasystematictestingregimebasedongeomorphologicalassessments.Allenandcolleagues’(Allen2004;AllenandMcAllister2010,2013;Allenetal.2011)recentinvestigationsacrossNukuHivaofferamodelforsuchasystematicfieldstrategy.3.Selectappropriateradiocarbondatingsamplesthatcanbelogicallylinkedtothearchaeologicaltargeteventofinterest.Thismeanscompletingwoodcharcoalidentificationsandselectingshort-livedplanttaxaorparts,andtheselectionofsuitableboneorshellspecimensalongwithproperpretreatmentprotocolsandisotopicmeasurements.WorkbyPetcheyandcolleagueshasgreatlyimprovedΔRvaluesacrosstheregion(Petchey2009;Petcheyetal.2008a,2008b,2009).Ideally,obtainmultipledatesthatproduceredundant,supportingresults.4.Presentdatafollowingstandardreportingprotocols(StuiverandPolach1977)sothatresearcherscanassesstheresults.5.Archaeologicaldatashouldbecoupledwithpaleoenvironmentalsequenceswheneverpossible.AsseenfromtheHawai’icasestudy,integrationofthesetwodatasetscanproduceamutuallyreinforcingestimateforcolonization.ExamplesfromWesternMicronesiaalsopointtodiscrepanciesthatmaybeidentifiedthatwillrequireadditionalinvestigationstoresolve.6.Bayesiancalibrationoffersapowerfulstatisticalmethodthatcansignificantlyimprovecolonizationestimateswiththepotentialtoprovidetemporalresolutionatagenerationalscale(e.g.,Whittleetal.2011).

Awiderapplicationofevensomeofthesuggestionsshouldresultinmoreprecise,accurate,andreliablecolonizationchronologies.Withthesechronologiesinplace,substantiveissuesrelatingtoislandcolonization,adaptations,culturalinteractions,agriculturalandsocialdevelopments,andotherscanbeexplainedwithlessspeculationaboutthetimingofchangeandcontinuity.

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TimothyRiethTimothyRieth,InternationalArchaeologicalResearchInstitute,Inc.

EthanCochraneEthanCochrane,UniversityofAuckland.