rowland, m. j. 2008 saving the past from the future

19historic environment volume 21 number 1 2008

AbstractAustralian archaeologists and cultural heritage managers haveshown limited interest in the impact of human induced globalwarming on cultural heritage. The issue has also failed to find asignificant place on government and non-government climatechange agendas. This is not surprising since archaeologists areaware that past climates have varied on natural cycles thatrange from 100,000 years to decades and also that humanshave adapted to such changes. Cultural heritage managers arealso called on to give priority to a range of other natural andhuman impacts on cultural heritage. Principal threats toheritage places are the same as those endangering biodiversityand we should therefore become involved on a multi-disciplinary basis with scientists and planners dealing withthese issues. One approach is to develop geoindicators tomonitor changes that take account of a range of human andnatural impacts, including potential global warming, anddevelop risk maps and a strategic approach to management.Aspects of this approach are briefly demonstrated by referenceto the Keppel Islands off the central Queensland coast.

IntroductionFuture climate change scenarios all suffer from considerableuncertainties but climate change, as it has done in the past, willcontinue to impact on cultural heritage places. There are alsomany other potential impacts on cultural heritage places and amuch greater emphasis needs to be placed on long-termmonitoring of both human and naturally induced changes.Geoindicators can be developed that measure the extent anddirection of such changes across a range of environments.These are cost-effective, easy to measure and can be appliedat appropriate time scales. A brief outline of their relevance isdemonstrated by reference to the Queensland coast.

Getting heritage issues on the globalwarming agendaThe issue of the impact of global climate change and its likelyimpact on cultural heritage sites (including archaeological sites)has had intermittent attention in Australia. In 1990 theAustralian Archaeological Association Annual Conference inTownsville included a session ‘Coasts, Islands and theGreenhouse Effect’, although only two papers (Rowland 1990:Sullivan & Hughes 1990) specifically addressed the issue ofclimate impacts on cultural heritage. In May 1991 a workshopwas held in Canberra on the ‘Effects of Climate Change onAustralia’s Cultural Heritage’. Papers from the workshop werepublished and a number of recommendations made butthey have not been implemented (Department of the Arts,Sport, the Environment and Territories 1992: 82–84; but seealso Rowland 1992). A special issue of Tempus published in1996 on issues in management archaeology (Smith & Clarke1996) contained two papers under the header ‘TheGreenhouse Effect’ (Pearson & Williams 1996; Rowland 1996).A paper by the author (Rowland 1999a) published in theAustralian Journal of Environmental Management was anattempt to raise the issues among a broader audience.

Despite these discussions there appeared to be little uptake ofthese issues by heritage managers and practitioners. Forexample, Australia ICOMOS reported that the Canberraworkshop covered an ‘important issue’ (Brooks 1991) but itwas not raised in Australia ICOMOS Cultural Heritage PlacesPolicy (1998), nor discussed in standard texts on culturalheritage management in Australia (e.g. Pearson & Sullivan1995). A National Heritage Convention in Canberra in 1998produced a publication of key outcomes but did not includereference to the possible impacts of climate change (AustralianHeritage Commission 1998a). A comprehensive AustralianHeritage Commission publication on protecting local heritageplaces, also failed to mention climate impacts (AustralianHeritage Commission 1998b). Enhanced greenhouse impactswere discussed in Chapter 5 of Australia State of theEnvironment 1996 report, but potential impacts on culturalheritage were not mentioned in the chapter on Natural andCultural Heritage (Purdie et al. 1996: Chapter 9).

Australia ratified the Framework Convention on ClimateChange on 30 December 1992. Australian initiatives from theKyoto Conference included the establishment of the AustralianGreenhouse Office and drafting of the National GreenhouseStrategy 1998. The draft made no mention of cultural heritage.A response to the draft from the then Queensland Departmentof Environment and Heritage (dated March 1998), via theDepartment of Premier and Cabinet, did include arecommendation that cultural heritage be included in thepriority areas for impact assessment in Module 8.Unfortunately, this did not translate into The NationalGreenhouse Strategy (1998). While natural heritage is identifiedin a general way (1998: 90) cultural heritage is not mentioned.

Public and government interest in climate change issues havegrown exponentially since the late 1990s. For example, inQueensland the Environmental Protection Agency convened aClimate Change Workshop in August 2001. A discussiondocument (Queensland Environmental Protection Agency2001: 34) produced for the workshop included a brief sectionon cultural heritage referring to several published papers on thesubject (Rowland 1990, 1992, 1996, 1999a). Submissionswere also tabled from a limited number of traditional ownergroups. Subsequently, the Queensland Government produceda public discussion paper but cultural heritage was notmentioned (The State of Queensland, Department of NaturalResources and Mines 2005). Later the government produced adocument which aimed to shape the development of aQueensland Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan(Adaptation Action Plan) (The State of Queensland 2006). Thisreport noted ‘climate change impacts on indigenouscommunities’ as a theme to be developed but did not mentioncultural heritage. The National Climate Change AdaptationFramework (Commonwealth of Australia 2004) does notidentify cultural heritage as an issue.

The 2003 Queensland State of the Environment report paysonly passing attention to the impact of climate change oncultural heritage (State of the Environment Queensland2003:9.23) and the Australia State of the Environment 2006

Saving the past from the futureMike Rowland

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report does not link climate change and cultural heritage, norare they linked in an independent report (Australian State of theEnvironment Committee, 2006 Chapter 9 ‘Natural and CulturalHeritage’; Beeton et al. 2006: 77). Cultural heritage is notmentioned in a proposed national approach to coastal zonemanagement (Natural Resource Management Council 2006).The Queensland State Coastal Management Plan prescribesthe inclusion of climate and related sea-level issues into localplanning but while environmental impact studies now addressgreenhouse issues, none of the archaeological reports thatform a component of these studies has done likewise (Rowland1992: 31–32). A Queensland Climate Change Centre ofExcellence was established in March 2007 as a specialist unitwithin the Department of Natural Resources and Water. It hasso far produced – ClimateSmart Adaptation 2007-2012 – inwhich there is a recommendation to produce by 2008 an online‘Best Practice Sustainable Tourism’ package that involvesadvice for businesses on ‘best practice in environmentaltourism and cultural heritage management’ (QueenslandGovernment 2007: 27). The Queensland Government has alsoproduced ClimateSmart 2050 (The State of Queensland 2007)but this does not mention cultural heritage.

It is reasonable to conclude from the above discussion thatarchaeologists and cultural heritage managers in Australia havenot shown a significant interest in the impact of climate changeon cultural heritage (for exceptions see Spennemann and Look1998; Spennemann 2005; Pearson and Williams 1996).Equally the issues have not been considered by governmentand non-government agencies.

Some reasons for an apparent lack ofinterest in climate change impacts oncultural heritageThat humans contribute to global climate change is not a newidea. Theophrastus (c. 370–285 BC) a pupil of Aristotle, forexample, raised the possibility that the clearing of woodlandsmight lead to warmer climates (Rowland 1996). More recently,Ruddiman (2005) proposed that from 8000 years ago humansbegan adding carbon dioxide and methane to the atmospherethrough forest clearing, rice farming, and raising domesticatedanimals. An alternative view is that we have escaped the ‘reignof chaos’ of the Pleistocene in which climate controlled us, toarrive at a more stable Holocene allowing for human controlover the environment (Burroughs 2005). However, because ofthe enormous complexities involved in climate changeprocesses, abrupt and unexpected surprises will always be afeature of climate systems (Schneider 2003). An awarenessthat climate can change abruptly is relatively recent (e.g. Alley2000; National Research Council 2002). In the late1960s/1970s debate centred on the question of whether or notthe world was heading toward a new ice age (Pearman 1988).Since the 1970s/80s however global warming has become adominant issue, with the media reproducing scenarios thatrange from tales of impending doom through to a hoaxperpetrated by scientists to obtain jobs and funding (Rowland1996: 128).

In an analysis of the impact on the public of the movie The DayAfter Tomorrow Lowe et al. (2006) found them frustrated andconfused by mixed messages from academics and politiciansconcerning climate change. Public perception was that therewas little agreement among the experts and a majorityexpressed greater concern for other issues including personal

income, crime reduction and education. Lowe et al. alsoidentified a perception that climate is already changing and arecognition of the adaptive capacities of humans.

The Stern Review raised the issues of climate change to a newpolitical level in Australia but questions have been raisedconcerning both the scientific basis and the derived economicimplications of the review (Stern 2006, see also Carter 2007).The release in February 2007 of the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPPC) report might have been expected tohave removed any doubt about the influence of humans in theprocess of climate warming. However, uncertainty remains. Itwould seem both inappropriate and unhelpful, for example, forthe editor of the prestigious journal Nature to claim that theevidence from the IPPC report should remove ‘the last groundfrom under the climate-change sceptics’ feet, leaving them‘looking marooned and ridiculous’ (Editor Nature 445 2007:567: emphasis added) – since subsequent papers in thevolume do demonstrate the degree of uncertainty anddisagreement. Schiermeier (2007), for example, refers to the‘wishy washy’ language of the report suggesting this isunderstandable ‘in a field that is still, in some areas, shotthrough with uncertainty’. It is also noted that while the IPCCreport is considered a consensus report this does not meanthat everyone agrees. John Christy, a climatologist at theUniversity of Alabama, for example, notes ‘I am one of the2000 with their names on [the assessment], but don’t sign meup for the catastrophic view of climate change’ (Anon 2007:582). A further paper by Pielke et al. (2007: 597) makes theimportant point that vulnerability to climate-related impacts areincreasing for reasons that relate more to rapid populationgrowth, an issue discussed further below.

An increasing number of scholars predict global catastrophe(e.g. Diamond 2005; Linden 2006) resulting from humanimpacts on the environment. Archaeologists in particularhowever are aware that the desire to improve the conditions oflife is one that has driven humanity from the earliest times. Inrelation to climate, humans for example, adapted to themassive changes of the Last Ice Age, the Younger Dryas, andthe lesser changes of the Medieval Warm Period, the Little IceAge and particularly in Australia to the El Nino-SouthernOscillation. Another archaeologist who has recently reviewedthe evidence comments that ‘on the basis of what I knowabout the past, I remain optimistic that people will manage. Inthe end, the best advice this archaeologist has to offer … [is]… DON’T PANIC!’ (Lilley 2006 no pagination, see also Redman1999: 214-15).

In sum, archaeologists are aware that humans have had asignificant impact on the environment over a long period oftime. They are also aware that climate change of differentintensities and time scales is a natural process that hasimpacted both gradually and abruptly on humans. Culturalheritage places are also subject to a multitude of diversethreats which range from pollution and natural disasters toeconomic pressure, development projects and uncontrolledtourism (Hassler 2006). Significantly, in his popular andsomewhat alarmist book on climate change it takes Flannery(2005) until page 294 to recognise that a root cause of humaninduced climate change is the total number of people on theplanet. By the year 2030 a key date for climate predictions,there will be for example 11–15 million extra Australians locatedin the coastal zone, as are 85% of the present population(Department of Immigration, Local Government and Ethnic

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Affairs 1987). The worlds population is currently 6.6 billion, by2030 is expected to be 8.2 billion and by 2050 9 billion.Importantly Homer-Dixon (2007) has identified five ‘tectonic’stresses’ that threaten humanity: population growth disparities,declining returns on energy extraction, environmentaldegradation, climate change, and economic instability anddisparity. These disparities are then subject to ‘multipliers’which can escalate to become catastrophic, resulting inwidespread systems failures. On a positive note however thearchaeological record suggests that systems failures can alsocause a burst of creativity, reorganisation and renewal. It istherefore clear that there are numerous factors that impact oncultural heritage places and that there is a need to be cautiousin getting side-tracked by the current high profile of the globalwarming debate. This is not to deny that human inducedclimate change is occurring, indeed it has probably beenoccurring for over 10,000 years.

How should archaeologists / culturalheritage managers respond?Archaeologists/cultural heritage managers need to develop arational, tempered response to change which incorporatespotential natural and human induced global warming effectsalong with a host of other potential long- and short-termenvironmental changes. This will require ongoing research,monitoring and assessment of cultural heritage places. It alsorequires the cultural heritage profession to assess theirexpertise, and the extent and quality of resources available todeal with change. In particular there is a need to address anability to cope with large scale salvage projects as total loss ofsites may be more common. Strategies for responding tochange need to be framed in terms of the uncertainty ofpotential global warming, the extent of normal variability inenvironmental factors, the impact of other perhaps moredominant human-induced changes and the concerns ofheritage owners or users. Environmental changes andincreasing human development will continue to impact onheritage resources and the global warming debate shouldtherefore re-emphasis the need to continue to define and refinethe processes involved in cultural resource management. Theprincipal threats to heritage sites are the same as thoseendangering biodiversity and we should therefore becomemore involved on a multi-disciplinary basis with scientists andplanners dealing with these issues (Rowland 1996: 131–133).Indigenous people have a significant role in observing change,developing adaptive models to cope with change and ofcourse it will be their cultural heritage that will be impacted sothat they must be involved in all decision making processes(Rowland 1996; 1999a). Some of these issues are discussedbelow in the context of the coastal zone.

The coast as battle frontThe coast is a fragile environment, aptly described as abattlefront – a line where land, sea, and air meet, that changesfrom second to second, season to season, decade to decade,millennium to millennium (Rowland 1992: 32). Dune systemsare inherently unstable geomorphic features, substantiallyimpacted by slope movements and wind and wave climateswhich have oscillated at different time scales over the last 5000years. The extent of European impacts, particularly relating toresidential, tourism and related infrastructural developmentsare also a major relatively recent impact on many sections of

the Australian coast. Indigenous sites (predominantly middens)located in these dunes are, therefore, particularly susceptible toa range of impacts. A range of environmental factors, includingtemperature, rainfall, vegetation, storm surges, coastal erosionand sea level change have impacted on the Queensland coastthroughout the Holocene and have been responsible for theselective destruction of a part of the Holocene archaeologicalrecord (Rowland 1989, 1999b). Middens are initially disturbedby the original occupants moving about on them (Hughes &Lampert 1977), subsequently re-worked by storm waves(Hughes & Sullivan 1974), often built on or destroyed by landclearance, and have been mined for a wide range of economicpurposes (Ceci 1984). They can be disturbed by a wide rangeof climate related stochastic events (e.g. Beaton 1985;Dominey-Howes 2007; Fullager et al. 1999; Rowland 1989;Sullivan & O’Connor 1993). For at least one area of theQueensland coast-the humid tropic zone- cyclones and stormsurges have had a demonstrable impact (Rowland 1989; seealso Clune 2002; Tarlton 1996; Przywolnik 2002; but see Craib& Mangold 1999: 305). Unfortunately, with rare exceptions(Bird 1992, 1995 see also Pearce 2006) archaeologists havenot yet begun to monitor the impacts of cyclones. Periods ofcoastal erosion also reveal new sites and in some casesexpand the visible form of archaeological remains across thelandscape (McNiven 1997). Other cyclical events such as ElNino/La Nina have also had significant effects onarchaeological sites (e.g. Jordan 1991: 413: Table 13.2) andthe potential impact of ‘enhanced greenhouse warming’ is afactor that now also requires consideration (Rowland 1992,1996, 1999a, Smith 1998). Inter-site continuities and hiatusesmust of course be interpreted with considerable care andcannot unquestionably be attributed to environmental change(O’Connor, Veth & Barham 1999).

The coastal zoneAustralia's coastal zone includes the coastline, nearshore reefs,nearshore islands, nearshore parts of the continental shelf,estuaries, tidal flats, coastal sand dunes and the coastal landmargin (Voice, Harvey & Walsh 2006: 1). It thereforeincorporates among other things: over 80% of Australia’spopulation, many top tourist destinations (including WorldHeritage and National Heritage sites), around 1000 estuaries,seven capital cities, globally significant ecosystems includingcoral reefs, mangroves and seagrasses, many ‘sea change’shires, the conduit to our export economy and a significantpercentage of Australia’s water resources. The impact ofclimate change on coastal systems is therefore likely to besignificant but difficult to predict (e.g. Cowell et al. 2006).Causes of sea-level variation, that are independent of globalwarming, may be overlooked. For example, ongoing verticalcrustal adjustment to changes in ice and water loading is animportant factor in many regions so that in some places relativesea level is still falling (Forbes & Liverman 1996: 179). This mayaccount for the fact that from 1950 to 2000 Australia had aslightly lower (1.2mm) rate of sea-level rise than the globalaverage of 1.8±0.3mm per year (Church & White 2006).

Complex changes will therefore occur in the coastal zone,whether caused by normal climate variation or anthropogenicinduced warming, and will impact on both Aboriginal andEuropean places (Rowland 1996: 131). To date however littlehas been done to monitor these potential changes andimpacts. In the following discussion I refer firstly to changesthat have impacted on sites on the Keppel Islands based on

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long term environmental trends and secondly on personalobservations made over a period of 30 years. I then proposethe need to establish some measures (geoindicators) that canbe used to identify the nature and direction of changes in thecoastal zone in the future.

The Keppel IslandsThe Keppel Islands lie at 230 11’S 1500 57’E off the coast ofcentral Queensland, offshore from Rockhampton (Figure 1).Archaeological investigations on the Keppel Islandscommenced in 1978 and have continued to the present (seeRowland 2007 for details). The biogeography of the islands isdiscussed by Creighton (1984).

Aboriginal people occupied the Keppel Islands from prior to4000 years ago, probably soon after they became islands. Thefirst European residence on South Keppel Island wasestablished by 1883. At times, as many as 3000 sheep weregrazing on the islands and goats and possums were alsointroduced. Tourism developed on the islands from the late1960s. Thus apart from natural impacts the presence of sheep,possums, goats, tourists and tourism infrastructuredevelopments has impacted substantially on the islands(Rowland 2007).

The Keppel’s are continental islands, cut off by submergencefrom the mainland by the Post Pleistocene MarineTransgression. They are only partially sheltered from theinfluences of oceanic swells by the Swains Reefs to the north,and the Capricorn Group to the south. Pleistocene remnantsands are present on high dune areas at Long Beach, WreckBeach and Red Beach on South Keppel Island. Holocene duneformation is variable. For example, at Considine Bay on NorthKeppel and Putney’s Beach on South Keppel a series ofHolocene sandridges extend landward up to 1.5km. AtPutney’s Beach, at least six accretion cycles can be observedwith the start of each cycle indicated by an erosion scarp in toa previous accretion zone, followed by a further accretion ridgeto seaward with the two ridges separated by a slightdepression. Both of these areas are orientated towards thenorthwest with similar local onshore and offshore topography.Wreck Beach and Little Wreck Beach on South Keppel Islandare by comparison exposed to easterly swells and winds,resulting in foredunes, of up to 5 metres in height. Landward ofthese foredunes, particularly in the case of Wreck Beach,previously active blowouts occur (Figure 2).

Sea Levels

The timing and magnitude of Holocene sea-levels on the eastcoast of Australia are still uncertain. Chappell’s (1983) smoothlyfalling sea level from 6000 years ago has long remained theparadigm. More recently Baker, Haworth & Flood (2001) havesuggested the sea level oscillated up to three times overthe last 6000 years. More recently still, Lewis et al. (2008) haveproposed a high stand of +1.0-1.5m was reachedapproximately 7000 cal yrs BP and that sea level fell to itspresent position after 2000 years. In between this there werethen two distinct periods (4800-4500 and 3300-2700 yrs BP)of possibly lower sea level of +0.5m. This is consistent with ahiatus in dune development at Mazie Bay at 3500 years agorelated to a change in sea level (see Rowland 1999b). Evidencefrom the Capricorn Coast also suggests a fall in sea level ofapproximately 1 metre prior to 1500 years and a fall of 0.5 after1500 years (Brooke et al. 2006a and b; Delvin et al. 2001). Overthe last 200 years sediments have accreted to form a beach-ridge plain approximately 3km wide that extends from CattlePoint north to Keppel Sands on the Capricorn coast.Catchment derived sediments and nutrient discharges haveincreased four fold since European settlement, primarily as aresult of the clearance of native vegetation for agriculture(Bostock et al. 2006a and b).

Climate

The climate of Keppel Bay is sub-tropical, sub-humid with a

Figure 1: Location of Keppel Islands, central Queensland coast. Figure 2a,b: North and South Keppel Island. Location of archaeologicalsites and places mentioned in the text.



concentration of rainfall in summer and a fairly high degree ofrainfall variability. The most significant dynamic climatic featureof the area is the incidence of tropical cyclones and associatedstorm surges. On average the region suffers the effects oftropical cyclones once every two years, although occurrence ofwidespread cyclonic destruction in the area is a much rarerevent. The frequency of cyclone occurrence in each decadesince 1909 is shown in Table 1.

Cyclones have produced short periods of shoreline erosion inKeppel Bay. For example, beaches of the Capricorn Coastreceded by at least 4 metres during cyclone David in 1976. Theeroded sand was moved into the near shore zone andsubsequently, within a few months, transported back onshoreunder normal wind, wave and tidal conditions. Over the last1500 years, approximately every 500–200 years there havebeen rapid episodes of beach ridge formation that lasted a fewdecades or less followed by relatively quiescent periods. It isargued that this periodicity is related to major flood dischargeevents of the Fitzroy River induced by the onshore passage ofhigh-magnitude cyclones. The decline in rate of ridge formationmay be related to phases of global climatic cycles that have aroughly 1500 year periodicity (Bond events). Also noted was ageneral decline in the rate at which sediment accumulatedduring the last 1500 years that likely reflects a long-termdecline in major rainfall events in the Fitzroy River catchment.More recent events in the area include coral bleachingrecognised around the Keppel’s (Elvidge et al. 2004; Wettle,Dekker & Blondeau-Patissier 2006) and based on historicalrecords from 1941–1999 evidence of mangrove gains andsubstantial loss of saltmarsh. While these changes areattributed to human factors there are also indications thatclimate change was involved (Duke 2003). Predictive modellingfor cyclones and storm surges for parts of the Capricorn coasthas been undertaken but they did not incorporate impacts fromgreenhouse warming and make no major reference to theKeppel Islands (Connell Wagner 2003).

Archaeological investigationsInitial archaeological research on the Keppel Islands did notincorporate systematic recording of the condition and extent ofsites recorded and time was not available to undertakesystematic mapping of individual sites, with the exception ofMazie Bay and Stockyards Beach on North Keppel Island.

Nevertheless, in the process of achieving certain researchgoals, most of the islands were systematically surveyed andissues of site location, preservation and erosion became amajor focus of interest (e.g. Rowland 1989 and 2007).Therefore over a period of thirty years some generalobservations have been made, photographic data and notesmaintained and anecdotal information collected which allowsfor some general impressions of site disturbance andmanagement issues to be identified.

DiscussionThe major cause of damage to coastal sites on the KeppelIsland Group over the last 5000 years has been the long-termimpact of wind and wave climates. This ‘normal’ process ofwind and water erosion is exacerbated by natural and humaninduced vegetation removal. Introduced sheep, goats andpossums have also been a major source of vegetationdestruction on the islands. Contrary to expectations touristshave probably had a limited impact on most sites.

‘Normal’ weather conditions have had a significant impact onsites by causing damage to vegetation, resulting in substantialerosion over short time-spans. Stochastic events such ascyclones and flood discharges from the Fitzroy River have alsohad significant impacts. For example, Cyclone Fran whichpassed within the vicinity of the islands in March 1992 hadsignificant impacts on Wreck Beach, Monkey Point, LittlePeninsula and Fisherman’s Beach. More than 1 metre of sandwas lost from Fisherman’s Beach during the cyclone though itis important to note that this has now largely been replacedand revegetated. On South Keppel Island, local fishermen havereported erosion of at least 15 metres over a 40-year period atPutney Beach and Fisherman’s Beach and these beaches, notsurprisingly, produced no evidence of Aboriginal occupation(see Rowland 2007 for details).

Management and monitoring– a case for using geoindicatorsThe management and monitoring of coastal sites has not beenwidely discussed in Australia (but see Aboriginal Affairs, Victoria2000; Bonhomme & Buzer 1994; Cane 1997; Smith 1998;Snelson, Sullivan & Preece 1986; Watson 1993; Zallar 1978).The management of coastal sites is inherently difficult andproblematic including critical issues of scale and cost (for abrief but useful overall review see Sullivan 1989). It is thereforeproposed that geoindicators be used as a measure of changeas discussed below.

Geoindicators are measures (magnitudes, frequencies, rates,and trends) in geological processes and phenomena occurringat or near the Earth’s surface which are subject to changes thatare significant in understanding environmental change overperiods of 100 years or less. They measure both catastrophicevents and those that are more gradual, but evident within ahuman lifespan. A range of geoindicators have been developedduring a three-year international project by the Commission onGeological Sciences for Environmental Planning (InternationalUnion of Geological Sciences). They are designed for use inenvironmental and ecological monitoring, state of theenvironment reporting, and general assessments ofenvironmental sustainability on local, national and internationalscales. They measure what is happening in the environment,why is it happening and what impacts it is having (see Berger1996: 384–385; Cogeoenvironment (IUGS) working group on

Table 1: Frequency of cyclones passing within 320km of Keppel Bay(Beach Protection Authority, 1979:73, figures for 1981-89, 1991-1999provided by Greg Stuart, Coasts, Wetlands and Waterways Branch,Environmental Protection Agency, Brisbane)

Period Number of Cyclones

1909-1920

1921-1930

1931-1940

1941-1950

1951-1960

1961-1970

1971-1979

1981-1989

1991-1999

5

4

6

13

4

5

4

6

4



Geoindicators 1996; see also Young, Bush and Pilkey 1996:194: Table 1 who have developed further geoindicators thatcan be used for the qualitative assessment of shoreline erosionor accretion). Geoindicators apply to a number of land systemsbut here space allows for reference only to coastal systems.Three coastal geoindicators – dune formation and reactivation,relative sea level rise and shoreline position – are describedbelow and their relevance to monitoring change on the KeppelIslands and Queensland coast is briefly outlined (Table 2).

Wreck Beach

The use of geoindicators is demonstrated very briefly byreference to one site complex – Wreck Beach on South Keppel

Island using air photos from 1962, 1992 and 2001 and thepersonal observations of Carl Svendsen and myself.Archaeological remains were first recorded at Wreck Beach in1979 (JF:A99 and JF:B08). The site was further inspected inNovember 1979 and excavations were undertaken in 1980(see Rowland 2007: 59 – 62 for details). The Wreck Beach unitextends the length of Wreck Beach and landward about 0.5kmand extends through to Big Sandhill’s Beach. Holocene sandsin the area frequently overlap Pleistocene sands in landwardareas and this is particularly marked at the southern end of thebeach. In 1980 the beach dune scarp was 4 metres to HWMS(High Water Mean Spring) with no incipient foredune. The areafrom Wreck Beach to Big Sandhills Beach is an active dune

Geoindicator Type of Change and Impact Measurement

Dune formationand reactivation

Changes in dune morphology and movement canresult from variations in aridity, changes in windpatterns and human disturbance, such asalteration of beach processes and sedimentbudgets, destruction of vegetation cover bytrampling or vehicle use, overgrazing, and theintroduction of exotic species.

These changes can be measured by changesin size, shape and position of sand sheets anddune fields can be monitored by repeatedground surveys and measurement of activeand dormant/relict dunes, by air photos, or bysatellite images (Berger 1996:400-402).

Relative Sea Level Numerous mechanisms can raise or lower sea-levels (Stewart et al 1990), a number of whichsuch as subsidence, tectonic emergence orsubmergence and/or post-glacial rebound are notdirectly related to climate change, while the IPPCprojects that thermal expansion will be the maincomponent of sea-level change in the 21stcentury. All are difficult to measure. Changes inRSL may alter the position and morphology ofcoastlines, causing coastal flooding, waterloggingof soils and a loss or gain of land. They may alsocreate or destroy coastal wetlands and saltmarshes, inundate coastal settlements, andinduce salt-water intrusion into aquifers, leading tosaltisation of groundwater. Modelling haspredicted that inundation would cause sandybeaches on the Australian coastline to recede byan order of 100 times the vertical sea-level rise.

RSL can be measured by tide gauges, GPStechniques and re-levelling surveys to identifychanges in coastal land elevation. HoloceneRSLs are commonly documented by locating afeature associated with a former sea level anddetermining its present elevation and age. Ingeneral, coastal lagoons, barrier coral reefs,and flooded river mouths imply submergence.More specific indicators include raisedstrandlines and marine shell deposits.Distinguishing land subsidence or uplift fromsubmergence or recession due to othersources of sea-level change is difficult (Berger1996:419-421).

Shoreline position Shoreline position varies over a broad spectrum oftime scales in response to shoreline erosion(retreat) or accretion (advance), changes in waterlevel, and land uplift or subsidence. Erosion andsediment accretion are on-going naturalprocesses along all coasts. Human activities (e.g.dredging, beach mining, river modification,installation of protective structures such as breakwaters, removal of backshore vegetation,reclamation of nearshore areas) can profoundlyalter shoreline processes, position andmorphology, in particular by affecting sedimentsupply (Berger 1996: 426-429). It has beenestimated that seventy percent of the worlds’coastlines have retreated over the past fewdecades, less that 10% have shown substantialprogradation and only 20-30% have shown nochange or been stable though these changescannot be attributed entirely to climate change(Bird 1985, Rowland 1996:130).

Using conventional ground survey and othermethods (simple rod and tape profiles,levelling, electronic total-station surveys, airphotos, GPS, analysis of old maps and charts)a number of parameters can be measuredsuch as width of dry beach, changes inposition of foreshore and backshore vegetation(Berger 1996:426-429.

Table 2: Three coastal indicators applied to the Keppel Islands (see Berger 1996).



2003, with a faster rate from 1993 to 2003 of about 3.1mm peryear. Oppenheimer et al. (2007: 1505) propose that theGreenland and West Antarctic ice sheets ‘have already had asignificant effect on sea level over the past 15 years and couldeventually raise sea level by many meters’. In other locations(the Maldives) it is argued that sea levels have in fact fallen overthe last 30 years (Mörner, Tooley & Possnert 2004).

There is nothing in the air photos from Wreck Beach/BigSandhills Beach to support a view that sea level change hasimpacted on the coastline in this area although more recent airphotos and ongoing assessment might reveal such changes.

field. Wreck Beach is protected from major wind and waveaction at its southern end. However a creek exits at this pointand goats have removed vegetation, resulting in exposure ofarchaeological material. It is possible that occupational depositsextend the length of the beach, but as one proceeds from thesheltered end overlying deposits of recent wind blown sand aresubstantial which may have covered cultural deposits.

Big Sandhills Beach (JF:B04) was located in 1978 and revisitedin 1979 when vegetation had been reduced by fire. Excavationsat the site were undertaken in 1980. Big Sandhills Beach isabove HWMS extending some 5 metres landward at which ascarp of some 15 metres is reached, being the toe of apresently active transgressive dune. A slight incipient foreduneis present but no creeks are associated with the unit.

There is no doubt that detailed, long-term monitoring is theideal way to obtain information about the current state of theglobal environment, rates of change, and the appropriatemanagement techniques required to deal with the changes.However, such monitoring is not currently happening and isunlikely to happen widely in the future. Detailed monitoring isexpensive and suffers from the reality that it is in fact long term.Predictive modelling is also rare due to uncertainty of manyvariables (e.g. Bernier et al. 2007; McInnes et al. 2003);however, the broad level of monitoring outlined in this papershould be sufficient to indicate general trends. Because of theexpense and time consuming nature of such monitoring it maybe necessary to concentrate on areas of known significanceand also to focus on digitising geoindicators so that long termassessment and comparisons can be facilitated.

Wreck Beach – big sandhills beach.Deductions from 1962, 1992, 2001air photos using geoindicators

Dune formation and reactivation

The long elongated transgressive dune (A) has continued tomove forward from Big Sandhills Beach through the years 1962to 2001. The surface of the dunes in 1992 and 2001 wouldappear to be less well vegetated than in 1962. The dunes at BigSandhills Beach (B) appear in 2001 to be more completelyvegetated than in 1992. The air photo for 1992 was taken inOctober. Cyclone Fran passed over the island in March 1992and this cyclone had a significant impact on the island (CarlSvendsen pers. comm.) (see Table 2 for geoindicator details andFigure 3 for reference to Wreck Beach and Big Sandhills Beach).

By 2001 the transgressive dune (A) had extended on to thedunes at Big Sandhills Beach. However the dunes at this beachappear to be better vegetated than in 1962 and 1992. There areindications that the dunes at Wreck Beach (C) are beginning toerode in 1992 and this erosion is clearly more marked by 2001.

The area (D) at the end of Wreck Beach appears to be relativelymore exposed in 1992 than in 2001. The ‘wreck’ (E) in 1992 isnot apparent in 1962 or 2001. Carl Svendsen is of the view thatthe wreck was there in 1962 and 2001 but was exposed bycyclone Fran in 1992.

Relative sea level

The IPPC Working Group (1) ‘Summary for Policymakers’ of theFourth Assessment Report anticipates a rise in sea level ofbetween 18 and 59 cm by the year 2100. It also indicates anaverage rate of 1.9mm per year has occurred from 1961 to

Figure 3a,b,c: Wreck Beach, South Keppel Island. Comparison of airphotos 1962 and 1992, 1962 and 2001, 1992 and 2001.



All that can be indicated at this stage is that some areas appearto have stabilised while others have not.

Shoreline position

This variable is difficult to measure without further groundsurvey and without knowing the time of day (i.e. tide times andwhen the air photos were taken). Nevertheless, there is noevidence of major changes in this variable. In fact the area ofdry beach at Wreck Beach would appear broader and morestable in 2001 than in 1992.

ConclusionsThe limited evidence from Wreck Beach and Big SandhillsBeach using air photos and anecdotal information over aperiod of 30 years cannot be used to draw specificconclusions. However, it could be concluded that most of thechanges identified can be attributed to ‘normal’ changes inclimate patterns and increasing human impacts. At presentnone of the changes could be attributed to the impact ofaccelerated global warming. However, the application of basicgeoindicators such as those used above should in the futureprovide clearer trends.

Coastal dunes are fragile systems impacted by the dynamicnature of weather and wave climates and a host of human relatedimpacts that occur on a number of time-scales. The magnitude ofthese changes may also be highly variable and they may besubstantially random and unpredictable. Given the range ofpotential impacts as outlined above it is critical that broad scalelong-term monitoring is undertaken and trends identified.

From the moment of their formation, heritage places aresubject to processes that modify and may eventually destroythem. In the past the response was to excavate those sitesthreatened with immediate destruction – to salvage as muchinformation as possible. However, with increasing awarenessthroughout the 1970s that archaeological resources are ‘non-renewable’, emphasis shifted from this exploitative model to aconservation one and the rise of an extensive literature onCultural Resource Management (e.g. Schiffer and Gumerman1977, Sullivan and Bowdler 1984). However with increasingdevelopment and the potential impact of human inducedwarming salvage may become more of an issue (Rowland1992, 1996, 1999a). If worst case scenarios of climate changeoccur, heritage sites will have a relatively low priority and it isunlikely that funds would be available to preserve sites in situ.Thus there is a need to discuss with heritage owners thepotential impact of climate change on sites. This will beparticularly important since as noted above the major emphasisin management will of necessity be on salvage. The currentglobal warming debate is controversial and there is stilluncertainty. There is no uncertainty however that population willincrease and demand more space and resources. The climatedebate must therefore heighten our awareness of all possibleimpacts in developing cultural resources management strategiesand of the importance of undertaking monitoring programmesthat can measure the causes and direction of change.

Future directionsIt would be costly, time consuming and probably impossible tomaintain a comprehensive and sophisticated monitoringsystem for all coastal sites. Nevertheless two approaches tothe monitoring of coastal sites are highlighted which arerelevant to the Queensland coast in general.

First, anecdotal information could be collected and occasionalobservations made (as for example was undertaken on theKeppel Islands) which would provide general trends. Such anapproach could be supplemented by establishing photo pointsat some sites, along with marker pegs to determine trends insand movement. Observations should be undertaken on anannual basis, but in the case of major climate eventsobservations should follow as soon as practical after the event.

Second, a major project could be developed to focus on theQueensland coast in general. This would require a riskmanagement analysis of the coast involving mapping landformtype, vegetation coverage, climate factors, storm surge, andpredicted global sea level rise. It would also involve mappingpast and present impacts such as past urban development,present and future development, other coastal works, includingmining, tourism, agricultural and industrial developments. At thebroadest scale the geoindicators discussed above – duneformation and reactivation, relative sea level and shorelineposition – could be mapped as indicators of trends in respectto potential global warming and other natural and humaninduced changes. A series of risk assessment maps could thenbe produced for the coastline. Digital models of the coastlinecould also be developed that could be rapidly updated as newdata becomes available.

AcknowledgementsAs always I thank the Woppaburra people of the Keppel Islandsfor their permission to work on their cultural heritage and theircontinuing support. I also thank Carl Svendsen for continuing tokeep an eye on sites on the islands for over 40 years and forsharing his insights. Thanks to Malcolm Connolly and CameronHarvey for producing Figure 1 and Bruce Nimmo and GaryBrockman for Figure 2. Many thanks are due to Peter Todd,Senior Surveyor, Natural Resources and Water for his assistancewith the aerial photographic material and discussions. Unforseencircumstances prevented me from presenting this paper at theICOMOS 2007 conference and I thank Susan McIntrye-Tamwoyfor the opportunity to publish here. I also thank her and SusanBarr for useful editorial advice. Views expressed in this paper donot necessarily represent those of Natural Resources and Wateror the Queensland Government.

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