Leonam dos Santos Guimarães

443 operating NPPs today

Producing 11% of world electricity

Taking part of the Energy matrix of 31 countries

Without forgetting ... 248 research reactors in 56 countries

and 180 reactors moving 140 ships and submarines in 6 countries ...

67 NPPS being built in 15 countries 2005 - 2015: 41 new connections to the grid

ANGRA 3

FLEET AGING

GENERATION CHANGE: II -> III -> III+ -> IV

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: EMERGENT COUTRIES

Brazil: 2.400 kwh per capita Portugal: 4.800 China: 1.900

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: Boosting prosperity is the way to care for our planet

CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE EFFECT GASSES EMISSION CONTROL

CLIMATE CHANGE GREENHOUSE EFFECT GASSES EMISSION CONTROL

Manaus

Brasília

São Paulo Itaipu

Porto Alegre

Fortaleza

Salvador

Rio de Janeiro

Belo Horizonte

Recife

Angra

4.000 km

HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION INTERCONNECTED NATIONAL SYSTEM: CONTINENTAL DIMMENSIONS – HYDRO DOMINANCE

HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION

• the expansion of a large interconnected power system, with significant predominance of hydro renewable primary source requires an increasing thermal contribution due to: • gradual exhaustion of the economic and

environmentally viable hydro potential • loss of self-regulation capacity due to lower

water storage capacity in the reservoirs related to the system load growth.

• Canadian electric system over

the past 50 years holds many

similarities with the situation of

the Brazilian over last 15 years.

• From a contribution of over 90%

in 1960, hydroelectricity share

in Canada declined steadily until

1990, stabilizing around 60%.

HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION

Hydro-Thermal Transition

INSTALLED CAPACITY IN BRAZIL

MONTHLY MAX/MIN THERMAL GENERATION IN BRAZIL

HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION

STORED ENERGY x HYDRO INSTALLED CAPACITY

Evolution of energy storage Decennial Expansion Plan PDE-20210

HYDRO POTENTIAL TECHNICAL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE 150/180 GW from 260 GW (100 GW already used)

Hidro

EXPANSION POST-2030

• Mix: natural gas (depending on the amount and cost of pre-salt), coal (depending on the

viability of CCS and clean coal) and nuclear (public acceptance)

• Renewables (biomass, wind, solar) and expansion of energy efficiency programs

(increasing marginal expansion costs) will be an essential supplement

UNIQUE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES OF NEW RENEWABLES IN BRAZIL:

• Wind – Solar match

• Wind – Hydro match • Energy storage in reservoirs • Saving water and • Enhancing hydroelectric load

following and self-regulation (long term) capabilities

NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS

2) Southeast 2.000 MW

1) Northeast 2.000 MW

operation: 2025 - 2030

EPRI SITTING CRITERIA Geographic Information Systems

National Energy Plan 2030

National Energy Plan 2030

• Plant Parameter Envelope

– RFIs to suppliers – Early Site Permit Report

• Brazilian Utility Requirements – URD/EUR Model

• Business Model – Public-Private Partnership

• Economic and Financial Feasability

• Social and Ecomomic Impacts

National Energy Plan 2030

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

INSPIRED BY TVA (EUA)

A NEW BUSINESS MODEL Risk sharing

BUILDING NEW NUCLEAR THE CHALLENGES AHEAD

Public attitudes • Government leadership • Public opinion at the national level • Local level opinion • Fukushima • Building public support • Trust, understanding of risk, and

risk governance • Community benefit

Technology Selection • In operation x construction x design • FOAK x NOAK • Passive x Active Safety

Financing new nuclear • Where will the money come from? • Barriers to raising finance • Alternative approaches

Supply chain and skills • Potential for bottlenecks and delays • Opportunities for Brazilian businesses • Skills

Business Model • Market insertion (commercialization) • Ownership of nuclear power stations

• State x Private • National x Foreigner

NUCLEAR INDUSTRY MITHS Are we also guilty? BE AWARE!

Financing barriers • shortage of finance, or the cost of it,

are significant barriers to new nuclear projects

• The truth is rather different: finance is not so much an input into a nuclear project as an output.

A new answer in SMRs? • promoted as a viable solution to some

of the problems experienced by large light water reactors

• unless the regulatory system can be adapted, they are unlikely to become more than a niche product

Nuclear growth in the developing world

• nuclear in these countries suffers from the same public acceptance and economic problems as elsewhere

Environmental credentials • the world will start building lots of

nuclear power stations to help counter climate change, as it becomes accepted as a green technology

• Nuclear energy gets left off the agenda because the fear it engenders dominates policy while the positive virtues get ignored

• there are sufficient alternative ways that nuclear opponents can argue for it being ignored

Leonam Guimarães