Md hinh dan nhan bay va nhOng chuyen bien mo'i t rong phan cong lao dong khu VIPC Dong A tha i gian gan day

TS. Lfc TH| AI LAM* BUI THAI QUYEN**

M6 hinh ddn nhan bay la nen tdng de phdn tich sif hinh thdnh vd phdt trien cdc lien kit kinh te vd mang sdn xudt khu vuc Dong A. Tic khi dua vdo sic dung cho den nay, md hinh ddn nhan bay dd co nhumg bien thdi rd r$t do bien dgng cua cdc dieu ki^n kinh te, chinh trf vd tu nhien. No dd chuyen bien tic mgt con nhgn ddu ddn (Nh$t Bdn) sang hinh thuc hai hogc ba con nhgn ddu ddn (Hdn Qudc vd Trung Qudc) va phla sau cdn cd nhiiu nude mdi tham gia chdng hgn Ldo, Camphuchla vd Myanmar. Tuy nhien, md hinh ndy vdn cdn gid nguyen gid trj trong vl?c gidl thich qud trlnh phdn cdng lao dgng, su hinh thdnh, phdt trien mgng sdn xudt khu vuc Ddng A. Bdi viet ndy se tdng quan lal md hinh ddn nhgn bay truyen thdng, nhimg thay ddl trong md hinh ddn nhgn bay vd nhicng hinh thdi phdn cdng lao dgng mdi trong khu v\cc Ddng A.

Tir khda: Md hinh ddn nhgn bay, NIES, ASEAN, phdn cdng lao dgng 1. Mo hinh dan nhan bay truyen thong \k mang san xuat khu vurc Dong A

LL Md hinh ddn nhgn bay Mo hinh dan nhan bay dugc dimg de phan

tich vai tro cua Nhat Ban trong qua trinh hpi nhap Dong A. Mo hinh dan nhan bay dugc giao su Kaname Akamatsu lan diu tien neu ra vao nhihig nam 1930 va sau nay dugc dua vao su dung. Day la mpt mo hinh phat trien cong nghifp mo ta sg hinh thanh cac luong thuong * Vifn Kinh te vi Chinh trj The gi61 ** Vifn Khoa hpc Lao dfng vi Xi hfi

mai npi nganh, san xuat va tang truong ciia tung qu6c gia. Kojuna nam 1973 da su dpng ten m6i do la mo hinh chu ky san phdm bat kip (catching-up product cycle) sau khi phoi hpp mo hinh dan nhan bay voi phan tich chu ky kinh doanh cua Vernon nam 1964. Mo hinh chu ky san pham bat kip (catch-up) bao gom 4 giai doan doi vdi moi quoc gia. Giai dogn 1: cdc nu6c kem phat trien nhap khau hang cong nghipp chl biin tur cdc nuoc phat trien va xuat khau txb Ipi mpt sl sdn phdm thii cong nghifp vd nong nghifp. -NhOng vin (J6 KINH Tt VA CHINH TRj THC GlCfi S6 2(202) 2013

U Th\ Al Urn - Bui Thai Quyen Mo hinh dan nhan bay va nhOng chuyin bi§n. Giai dogn 2: Cac nu6c cham phat triln

hep nhan dau tu tu cac nuoc phat triln de tu che tao lay cac hang hoa cong nghiep tieu dung ma trudc day van phai nhap khau (giai doan san xuat diay thi hang nhap khiu). Day la giai doan tich liiy tu ban va md phdng cdng nghe chl tao cua cac nude phat triln.

Giai dogn 3: Nhimg san phim cdng nghifp diay thi nhap khiu d giai doan 2 da cd dll hd thanh nhimg san phim xuit khiu chu dgo. Khoang each giira nhihig nude di sau vdi cac nude phat trien ve eac san phim cdng nghifp dugc nit ngin, vi vay ma so lugng va quy md mSt hang xuat khiu ngay cang md rdng.

Giai dogn 4: Xuit khiu hang cdng nghifp tieu dimg bit dau giam xuong, nin cdng nghifp da dat trinh dp ngang bing vdi cac nude phat trien va bit dau chuyen giao mdt sd san pham cdng nghifp tieu dimg cho cac nude kem phat hien hon.

Nhat Ban dugc coi la the hf thu nhit khdi diu cho md hinh phat trien cdng nghifp cua cac nude Ddng A - dan dau dan nhan bay. Sau Chiln hanh thi gidi thii II den nhiing nam 1970, Nhat Ban da digc hifn hang loat chinh sach thiic day phat trien cdng nghiep (nhu giam thui va ho hg tin dgng cho nhiing nganh cdng nghifp phat trien hay hd trg tai ca cau ddi vdi nhihig nganh cdng nghifp kem phat trien nhu ngdnh cdng nghifp ddng tau, nganh khai thac Uian va nganh khai thac md), chinh sach hudng vdo xuit khiu, hf thing tai chinh dga tren cac ngan hdng chir khdng phai thi trudng tdi chinh, vd chinh phu ho gg, khuyin khich cac tap doan Idn phat giin. Nhiing chinh sach nay da phdt huy tac dpng vd tao nen sg than ky cho nen kinh tl Nhpt Ban trong giai doan nay. Ly thuylt khdng gian kinh tl dp dung cho md hinh ddn nhgn bay, khi Nhdt Ban dd phat giin d mpt mirc dp nhit djnh. Ddc bift sau cii

sic diu lua nam 1974 - 1975, nin khdi tl Nhdt Ban mit din kha ndng canh ganh, khiln Nhat Ban phai thgc hifn chiidi sdch tilt kiem nang lugng va chuyen dich co ciu kinh tl theo hudng tang ty trpng ciia khu vgc dich vu, tang ty gpng nhirng nganh cd ham lupng tri thirc cao va chuyen giao cdc boat ddng cdng nghiep khdng cdn lgi the eanh tranh ra eac nude khac hong khu vgc.

The hf thii hai trong khu vgc Ddng A nhan chuyen giao cdng nghe va ngudn vin diu tu nude ngoai tir Nhat Ban tir nhimg nam 1960 dd la cdc nin cdng nghiep hod mdi (NIEs) bao gdm Hdng Cdng, Dai Loan, Singapore va Han Qudc. Nhirng nen kuih tl nay dd dp dung cac chinh sdch tuomg tg cua Nhat Ban vd da rit thanh cdng, tao nen thin ky cho nin kinh tl Ddng A. Cac ngdnh cdng nghifp cua cac nin kinh tl NIEs din dat dugc mdt trinh dp nhit dinh va dudi kip Nhdt Ban vl cdng nghf ciia mpt sl san phim nhu cdng nghf san xuit chit ban dan, cdng nghe sdn xuit cac thilt bj thdng tin va viln thdng (nhu may tinh xach tay, vd difn thoai di ddng). Cac doanh nghiep dau nganh trong san xuat cac sdn phdm nay cua cac nin kinh tl NIEs cd thi canh tranh binh ding vdi cac doanh nghifp ciia Nhat Bdn. Cae nin kinh te NIEs bdt dau chuyen dieh ca ciu cdng nghiep tir eac nganh sir dung nhilu lao ddng sang cac ngdnh cd ham lugng cao ve tu ban va cdng nghf. Hp thgc hien chuyen giao cdng nghe cua nhiing nganh sir dung nhieu lao ddng cho cac nude d the hf thii ba dd Id 4 nen kinh te ASEAN phat trien trudc (Malaysia, Thai Lan, Philippines va Indonesia, nhdm cac nen kinh te nay dugc gpi la ASEAN-4). So vdi thi hf thii 2, cdc nude thudc die hf tiiii 3 nay ed ddc trung la sg phat trien kinh tl phu thudc rit nhieu vao ngudn vdn dau tu trgc tilp nude ngoai (nhu la ngudn vdn dau tu va

Nhi>ng vin di KINH T VA CHINH TR! TH GlCn S6 2(202) 2013

M6 hinh ddn nhan bay va nhOng chuyin bi6n. Lfe Th| Al tam - Bii\ Thdi Quyfen cong nghe), va xuat khiu dua chii ylu vao nguyen vat lieu (resoiuce based export), va quan ly mot khuon kho chinh sach cong nghiep tuong d6i long leo.

Cuoi ciing, cac san phim dugfc san xuat a cac nuoc the he thii 3 lai dugrc xuit khiu trd lai thi trudng Nhat Ban va cac nude d thi he thii 2. Va tuomg tu nhu vay, cac nude d thi he thii hai ciing xuit khiu trd lai thi trudng Nhat Ban.

Trung QuIc dugrc daidi gia la the he thii tu trong md hinh phat triln khu vuc Ddng A. Ciing nhu cac nude Ddng A khac, Trung Qudc thuc hien chiln lugrc cdng nghifp hudng vl xuit khiu, va eiing dua chu yeu vao ngudn vdn dau tu true tilp nude ngoai. Trung Qude dan thay Hinh 1:

thi My, trd thardi thi trudng nhgp khau ldn nguyen vat lifu, vdn, ludi kien va bin didnh phim hi cac nude trong khu v\rc Ddng A (Nh|it Ban, Han Qudc, va cac nude ASEAN) de san xuit hang xuat khiu sang My va chau Au.

Nhiing chinh sach chlnh cua md hinh duoi kip nhilu ting nay la: i) Khuyin khich tilt kifm va diu tu; ii) Dam bao ty If diu tu ldn vao giao due va cac boat dgng nghien ciiu va phat trien; iii) On dinh khdi tl vT md; iv) Md ciia dii trudng dl tilp can nin cdng nghe tien tiln ciia nude ngoai va nang cao kha ndng eanh tranh thdng qua sir eo sdt vdi cdc doanh nghifp nude ngoai; v) Thuc hifn cdc chhdi sdch an shdi xa hgi, tdng Uudng kinh tl di ddi vdi cdng bing xa hgi.

Md hinh dan nhan bay

R&D Hang Hoa Cong nghe cao Hang hoa Tu* ban Hang tieu dCing lau ben . Hang ho san xuH: sir dung nhieylaod$ng

Mo hinh phat tri&i kinh te khu vyc Dong A ""Dan nhn bay* (den tSn nhung nam dau <h$p nien 1990)

Nguon: Masahisa Fujita (2007), U. 84.

•NhOng vin di KINH Tfi VA CHINH TR| THt G\tn S6 2(202) 2013

Ld Thj A\ lAm - Bui Thai Quyen Nhu vay, trong mo hinh dan idian bay truyen thong, vimg Dong A g6m nhidu nhom nuoc co cac giai doan phat trien khac rdiau va tai do mot nganh cong nghiep thudng dugc bit diu phat gien tgi Nhat Ban, sau dd chuydn sang NIEs rdi ASEAN-4, sau niia la ddn Trung Qudc va tidp theo ed thd la Viet Nam va cac nude khac; cac nude di trudc sau khi mit Igi thd so sardi trong nganh ban dau dS no Igc chuydn dich co ciu cdng nghidp sang nhung ngdnh cd gia tri gia tdng cao vdi trinh dp cdng nghd cao ban va chuyen din vipc sdn xuit nganh ban diu sang cdc nude khdc cd trinh dp san xuit thip hom. Nhihig no Igc tich luy tu bdn, cdng nghd tai cdc nude di sau thdng qua khuydn khich diu tu trgc tiep nude ngoai va cac hinh thai chuydn giao cdng nghd khac tir cdc nude di trudc da tao nen qud trinh bit kip nhu da neu d trdn.

1.2. Lien icet kinh ti vd mgng sdn xudt khu v^ Ddng A

Md hinh dan nhan bay dupc coi Id ndn tdng ctia lidn ket kinh te va mang san xuit khu vgc Ddng A.

Qud ginh phdt tridn kinh td Ddng A dang tao ra nhihig dpng Igc ngay cang Idn hom cho kinh td die gidi. Trong cdc thdp nidn gin day, Ddng A ludn Id khu vgc di dau ve tde dp tang trudng kinh te the gidi. Cdc ndn kinh td Ddng A tang trudng nhanh gong hom bdn thap ky qua nhd gia tdng diuomg mai quoc td va diu tu hgc tidp nude ngodi (FDI). Mang sdn xudt vd chuoi cimg img do cdc cdng ty da qudc gia (giai doan diu cdc cdng ty da qudc gia nay xuat xu tir Nhdt Bdn, giai dopn sau dd cdn cd thdm eae cdng ty da quoc gia tir cdc ndn kinh td cdng nghidp mdi noi NIEs) tpo ra da gd thanh nen tang vung chai cho md rpng thuomg mai va dau tu. Gid hi diuong mpi npi vimg cua nhdm eae nen kinh te NIEs tdng tir 11,9% (1990) Idn 13,6% (2006). Con so ndy cua nhdm 10 nude

Md hinh dan nhan bay va nhifng chuyin bidn... ASEAN ciing tdng tir 18,8% (1990) Idn 27,2% (2006)'. Cimg vdi sg phat Uidn diuomg mai ndi vimg, trao ddi thuomg mai cua Ddng A cdn mang sic thai ndi nganh kha rd ret. Thuomg mai ndi nganh dieo chidu dpc, dac bidt Uong cac sdn pham chd tao dugc md rdng nhanh chdng. Vd CO ban, cae qude gia ed nang Igc cdng nghd cao, cd xu hudng chuydn mdn hod san xuit cdc sdn pham tinh xao, cd ham lupng chit xdm cao. Trong khi do, cdc qudc gia cd nang Igc eong nghd thap thi ed xu hudng chuydn mdn hod san xuit cac san pham ed ham lugng cdng nghd thap. Nhu da de cap d phin trudc, sg phan cdng lao ddng nay da dugc hinh thdnh mdt each kha tg nhidn theo sg phan bd cac co sd sdn xuit gong khu vgc ndm trong mang san xuit xuydn bien gidi cua cac cdng ty da quoc gia. Cac cdng ty da qudc gia da tao ra cdc loai hudi diuomg mai nhu vay thdng qua cac hoat ddng diu tu dinh vi cac quy trinh san xuit khde rdiau d cdc nude khde nhau theo ndng Igc cdng nghd va lgi thd so sanh vd cac diu vdo san xuit. Dd chinh Id nhan td thuc day thuomg mai ndi ngdnh ddi vdi cac phu timg, phu kidn, ban thanh phim vd thanh pham giira cac nude gong khu vgc. Tmng Qude la mpt vi du, trong thdi ky 1990 ddn 2000, xudt khau san pham chd tao eua Trung Qude da tdng tir 49,7% Idn 89,7% trong tdng gia hi xuit khau qude gia, vd ty Id nay ludn dugc duy tri d muc 94% trong sudt giai doan 2006 - 2009. Cac hoat dpng gia cdng vd che tao eho ben ngoai cua Trung Qudc chu ydu la phuc vu cho ' Ty 1$ thiromg m?i npi vung dirge tinh theo cong thiirc

Xij/(Xiw-Xwi)/2, trong do Xi \h gia tri xudt khiu trong npi viing, Xiw li gii trj xuit khau ciia viing ra thj tnrong the gidi vi Xwi la gii trj xuit khau cua the gidi vio trong viing. Nguon: Masahiro Kawai, Ganeshan Wignaraja (2008): Regionalism as an Engine of Muhilateralism: A Case for a Single East Asian PTA, Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration No. 14 ^ Tic gia tinh toin tir sd li?u thdng ke xuit khiu hing nim ciia Trung Quoc, trang web: http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/20IO/indexeh.htm NtiOng vin di KINH it Mk CHINH TRj TH6 G\tf\ Sd 2(202) 2013

M6 hinh ddn nhgn bay vd nhOng chuyen bien.. Le Thj Ai Ldm - Bill Thdi Quydn cdc nen cong nghiep moi noi NIEs vd cac nude phdt trien d chdu Au, Nhdt Ban vd My.

Ben canh thuong mgi, FDI cdng gia tang lien tyc hong khu vuc Ddng A. Ddng vdn FDI dau tu vao khu vyc Ddng A tdng tir gdn 80 ty USD (2003) len 188,3 ty USD nam 2010. Ddng vdn FDI ma cdc nude Ddng A ddu tu ra khdi khu vyc cung tang khdng ngimg tir khoang 20 ty USD (2003) len 174,3 ty USD (20I0) Ddng von FDI vdo vd ra khdi khu vyc Ddng A ngdy cdng tang da cho thay mue 6Q hdi nhap cua nen kinh te Ddng A ngdy cdng sau, rpng vao nen kinh te thd gidi. Ben cgnh dd, ty trong FDI ngi viing Ddng A so vdi tdng vdn FDI vdo Ddng A trong ea giai dogn 1995 - 2005 chiem khoang 48,5%. Trong giai doan 1990 - 2004, Nhdt Ban ludn Id nhd ddu tu ldn nhdt dau tu vao khu vyc Ddng A, ludn ehilm khodng 17-18% tdng gid trj ddng FDI tich luy tdi cdc nude Ddng A". Nhung hien nay, ben cgnh nhd ddu tu ldn va truyen thong Nhat Ban, trong khu vyc cdn xuat hifn cac nha dau tu tir cac nen kinh te NIEs. Trong giai dogn 1995 - 2005, cac nhd dau tu thugc cdc nin kinh tl NIEs ehilm 29,2% tdng gia tri ddng vdn FDI vao ASEAN 9 vd 54% tong gia tri ddng vin FDI vdo Trung Qudc trong cimg ky. Tinh ehung cho cd khu vyc Ddng A, cac nin kinh tl NIEs da dau tu 34,9% tdng gid h-} ddng vdn FDI vdo khu vyc Xuat hifn vifc tai ddu tu ra ben ngoai cua cac nin kinh tl NIEs Id do cdc nin kinh tl ndy da phdt h-iln len mgt mure dd nhdt dinh sau khi tilp nhgn ddng vin FDI tir cdc cdng ty da qudc gia

' UNCTAD, Bdo cio dau tu thi gidi nam 20 IL * Rabin Hanari and Ramkishen S. Rajan (2008): Sources of FDI Flows lo Developing Asia: The Roles of Distance and Time Zones, ADB Institute Working Paper No. 117. Masahiro Kawai, Ganeshan Wignaraja (2008):

Regionalism as an Engine of Multilateralism: A Case for a Single East A^ian FTA. Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration No. 14.

tir Nhdt Ban va chau Au trong thdp then 1980. Nam 2008, Hing Cdng da thyc hifn dau tu ra nude ngodi vdi sd vdn len tdi 5.900 ty dd la Hdng Cdng, trong dd 46,5% tong gid tri dau tu ndy Id sang cdc nude thugc khu vyc Ddng A. Ben cgnh, Trung QuIc nhdn 44,4% tdng gid hi ndy, Malaysia, Thdi Lan vd Singapore ciing nhan nhirng ty If tuomg ung Id 0,59%, 0,64% vd 0,88%*.

Cdc mgng sdn xuat dya tren md hinh phdn cdng lao dgng ddn nhgn bay nay dd ket ndi hf thing cdng ty giira cdc qudc gia vd hd thanh mgt ididn to quan trgng lien ket kinh te Ddng A. Mang ludi nay dugrc thyc hifn thdng qua FDI cua Nhdt Bdn vd dya hen co sd cua sy phan cdng lao dgng nhilu tang. Theo dd, qud trinh sdn xudt mgt sdn phdm dugrc phdn chia thdnh cdc tiiu qud trinh vd phdn bd chung d cdc nude khdc nhau dya tren Igri the so sdnh vd ndng lyc cdng nghf, bao gdm chi phi thuomg mai, chi phi san xudt, kinh te theo quy md (economic scale). Sy khdc bift vl tiln luomg giira cac nude Id lyc lugmg dan ddt thuc ddy co che chia se san xuat d Ddng A. Ddng vdn vd cdng nghf giira cdc nude da bl sung eho sy chia se san xudt va cho phep cdc cdng ty md rgng thue ra ben ngoai todn cau vd md rdng mgng ludi sdn xudt khu vyc. Ket qud Id tao ra mdt cudc each mgng phan lao ddng khu vyc ndng dgng. Ben cgnh dd, sy phdt triln ve cdng nghf thdng tin vien thdng, ha tang giao thdng vd cdc ca che hoan thue da lam giam ehi phi thuc hien kirdi doanh. Sy xudt hifn va tin tai cdc mang ludi phan phli va cac trung gian thuomg mgi hong khu vyc da giiip giam cdc chi phi tim kilm thdng tin vd ket ndi thuang mgi. Ket qua la khuyen khich cdc boat dgng dau tu, san xuat va thuomg mai xuyen bien gidi. ' So li?u diong ke cua Hong Kong, trang web: http://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B 1010003201 OAN 10 B0I00.pdf

-Nhdng vin 6i KINH it VA CHINH TR| IHt G\(3\ S6 2(202) 2013

U Th| Al Lim - Bui Thdi Quyen M6 hinh ddn nhan bay vd nhO-ng chuyen biin. Nghien cmi cua Hanson, Mataloni va Slaughter (2005) cho thdy 1% cdt gidm chi phi thuomg mai dan den tdng 2,4% gid tri rdidp khdu, ddc bift Id nhdp khau cdc sdn phdm trung gian.

Trung Qu6c hi?n nay dong mpt vai tro chu chot trong cdc mang sdn xudt vd chuoi cung ung 6 khu vpc Dong A, boi vi sp gia tdng xudt khdu ddi hdi nhdp khau nhieu hom cdc nguyen lieu, php li?u, phu timg cdng nghifp vd cdc sdn phdm trung gian khdc tir eac ndn kinh td Idng gidng. Khodng 78% tong gid trj luong vdn ddu tu ra nude ngodi cua Tnmg Qudc ndm 2008 (tuomg img vdi gid trj 43 ty USD) Id vdo cdc nude Ddng A, trong dd 88% (khodng 38 ty USD) Id dd vdo Hdng Cdng, gdn 3,6%o (tuong ung 1,5 ty USD) dupc ddu tu vao Singapore. Ngodi ra, Trung Quoc cdn dau tu vdo cac nen kinh td khac nhu Indonesia, Nhdt Bdn, Hdn Qude, Thdi Lan vd Vipt Nam vdi cdc ty If tuomg img trong tong gid tri dau tu ra nude ngoai ndm 2008 Id 0,4%, 0.1%, 0,2%, 0,1% vd 0,3%'.

Gan ddy, sp ndi Idn cua An Dp dupc du bao Id cdn thuc ddy hom nira mdi lidn kdt kinh td khu vpc. Tdt cd nhOmg yeu td ndy hudng tdi su md cira vd toan cdu hda kinh td ldm hom cho khu vpc Ddng A.

Bdc My vd chdu Au hifn van Id nhimg thi trudng quan trpng cho cac san pham cudi cimg cua Ddng A, song vdi sp tdng trudmg cua cdc dij hirdng khu vpc, tdm quan trpng cua cdc thi hudng ben ngodi sd giam xuong theo thdi gian.

Trong ngdnh dft may, Hdng Cdng Id mpt trung gian diuomg mai va trung tam van chuyen ldn hong khu vpc. Hdng Cdng dd nhdn nhimg don hdng tir cdc khdch hdng ldn chau Au vd My sau dd thpc hifn diue ra ben ngoai cho nen kinh tl khdc nhu Vift Nam, Trung Qudc va hifn nay

' S6 lifu thing k& Trung QuIc, trang web: http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2010/indexeh.htm

Id Campuehia. Cdc nha xudt khdu Trung QuIc ed xu thd thue hidn xudt khdu qua Hdng Cdng vi mudn tpn dung Ipi thd ciia mdt hmng tdm van chuydn khu vuc. Mang ludi cae nha phan phli d Hdng Cdng, Singapore ciing nhu cac thanh phd ldn khac cua khu vuc nhu Thupng Hdi la mpt ydu td quan trpng thuc ddy lidn kit kinh tl Ddng A vd tao cho khu vuc mdt Ipi thi hom hdn so vdi cae khu vuc phdt hiin khac nhu chau Phi va My Latinh noi thilu cae hmng tam kinh doanh qudc tl.

Kinh td tdng theo quy md tao ra dpng co cho cdng ty thuc hifn quy tu timg phan quy trinh san xudt theo khu vuc dia ly. NIU chi phi sdn xudt trung binh gidm do quy md sdn xudt tdng d cdp cdng ty, ngdnh hodc khu vuc, thi luc dd sd xuat hifn nhumg loi thd cua vifc tap trung san xuat trong mdt khu vuc nao dd. Su kdt ndi gida kinh td quy md vd quy ty dia ly da dupc cdng nhdn tir lau trong kinh td hpc thdnh thi vd kinh td hpc vl phat tridn vimg. Trong thgp ky qua, eae nha kinh tl thuomg mai cung bdt ddu dp dyng ly thuydt nay vao kinh td toan cdu. Kirdi td quy md Id mdt loai dpng co cho vifc hinh thdnh cac mang sdn xudt todn cdu. Sy quy hi dia ly cua cdc hoat dpng kinh td dupe tao ra tir mdi lidn kit ddu vdo - dau ra giua ede cdng ty, ede ngdnh. Tuy nhidn, sy tich ty vd mdt dia ly eiia eae hoat dpng kinh tl lam tdng hin luomg hong cdc cym cdng nghidp khien cho cdc cdng ty lai cd nhu cau chuydn dia didm san xuat ve noi cd muc dp quy ty it hon va ed muc luomg thap hom. Ket qua la tao ra mdt co cau san xuat tnmg tam - ngoai vi (hay co cdu sdn xuat nan hoa). Sy phdn tan san xuat qude td dd lam tang tinh ndng ddng eiia ede ndn kinh td Ddng A va thue day sy phy thudc kinh td Ian nhau trong khu vyc. Nhu vdy ed the thdy, mang san xuat ehinh la trai tim cua sy tdng trudng thuang mai, dau tu vd phan cdng lao dpng gan day giira eae nude Ddng A.

Nh(}ng vin di KINH Jt VA CHINH TRj THt GIOI Sd 2(202) 2013

M6 hinh ddn nhan bay vd nhCrng chuyin biin.. Lfe Thj Ai Lam - Bui Thdi Quyfen Nhieu nghien cuu da chi ra ring, mang san

xuat khu vuc Dong A la mpt kieu lien ket kinh xk khu vuc khong chiidi thuc. Mang san xuit da bidn tinh khong ddng nhit trong khu vpc, tir mpt nhan to can tro su lien ket thanh co sd, dpng luc cua su lien ket. Mang san xuat khu vpc da gan ket manh su phu thudc lan nhau cua cac nen kinh te Ddng A va bien Ddng A thanh mpt khu vuc kinh te nang dpng.

2. Nhirng thay doi trong phan cdng lao dgng khu vuc Dong A

Nhd cd su lan tda cdng nghifp ma cac nen kinh te Ddng A tSng trudng nhanh trong hon 4 thap ky qua, thdng qua gia tang thuong mai quoc te va FDI. Mang san xuat va chuoi cung ung do cae cdng ty da quoc gia hong va ngoai khu vuc tao ra - da hd thanh nen tang vimg chai cho md rpng thuong mai va diu tu. Ddng A da dupc hudng mdt thdi ky kha dai eua viec md rdng thucmg mai va diu tu theo hudng thi trudng.

Tuy nhien, tir cudi thap nien 1990, vdi su phat trien manh me cua Trung Qudc va gan day la sp ndi len cua An Dp cimg nhu su thanh cdng vupt bac cua cac cdng ty Han Qudc, sp phat trien cua cdng nghe thdng tin, su nit ngdn nhanh chdng khoang each cdng nghe gida cae nude, nhidu ngudi da dat nghi vin vd tinh thuydt phuc eua md hinh dan nhan bay, eho ring nhd cdng nghd thdng tm nen cac nude di sau d Ddng A ed thd ddng loat san xuat ngay cae nganh cdng nghidp cd cdng ngh? cao, tidn len ngang hang vdi cae nude di trudc. Ben canh dd, hong dieu kidn kudi td va chinh hi mdi, eae nude di sau (nhu Viet Nam) se la didm ddn ly tudng eua eae ddng vdn FDI tu cae nude ldn (nhu Nhat Ban) khdng phai la eac ndn kudi td NIEs nhu giai doan trudc. Tuy nhidn, neu nhin va phan tieh ky hon cd die thiy md hinh dan nhan bay van edn duy tri song nd da thay ddi kha nhieu. Luan didm nay

dupc dua ra trdn co sd nhin nh$n khuynh hudng mdi trong Ian sdng cdng nghifp Ddng A, sp diay ddi ciia cac mang san xuit toan ciu cung nhu dac didm ciia mpt sd ndn kinh td Idn tham gia md hinh hifn nay.

Khu vuc Ddng A dang ngay cang trd thanh nha may san xuat hang cdng nghifp cua thd gidi. Cdng nghidp hoa tidn nhanh va co ciu cdng nghifp ngay cang hudng vao nhihig ngdnh cd gia tri gia tSng cao. Sau vai thdp nidn phdt tridn, khodng cdch cdng nghf giiia cdc nude trong vimg Ddng A dupc nit ngdn. Didu nay dupc phdn dnh trong hi?n tupng cdc nude ASEAN vd Tnmg Qudc, nhung nude di sau trong qud trinh cdng nghifp hod, ngdy cdng gidnh dupc su phdn cdng sdn xuit hodc thpc thi nhirng cdng doan cd gid trj gia tdng cao trong todn bp chuoi gid tri cua timg nganh cdng nghifp. Ddc bifL trong cac ngdnh sdn xuit mdy mdc nhu mdy tinh cd nhdn, mdy gidt, mdy chpp hinh,... trudc day cac nude ASEAN vd Trung Qudc chli yeu phu trach cdng doan ldp rdp, cdng doan gid tri gia tdng thdp nhat nhung bay gid hp dd leo Idn cac ting trdn thupng ngudn eua chuoi gid tri, ddc bift la giai doan sdn xuit bp phdn, linh kifn.

Ddc bifL sp Idn mpnh cua Trung Qudc tidn bdc thang cdng ngh? thdm chi cdn khidn cac nude di trudc hom niia nhu Hdn Qude edm thay bi thach thirc. Ngdn hdng Phdt trien Hdn Quoc danh gid ring, trinh dp cdng nghf cua Trung Quoc da dat miic 95% trinh dp cdng nghf eua Han Quoc vd cd kha ndng vupt ldn trdn trong vdng vai ndm do Ipi thd cdng ngh? cua Han Qudc so vdi Tnmg Qudc dang bj nit ngin lai. Miirc dp chenh Ifch trinh dp cdng nghf eua Trung Quoc so vdi Han Qude hong 506 nganh cdng nghf tiidng tin chu chdt gidm tir 2,3 ndm ndm 2003 xudng cdn 1,7 ndm ndm 2006 (Klingner and Kim, 2007). Cdc cdng ty cua

-Nhdng vin di KINH vA CHINH TRj TH6 Gl6n SA 2(202) 2013

L6 Th| Ai L&m - Bui Thii Quyen M6 hinh ddn nhgn bay vd nhOng chuyin biin. Tnmg Quoc hi?n nay dang la nhimg doi thu cgnh tranh Uuc tilp voi cac cong ty cua Han Quoc Uong cac Imh v\rc nhu che tgo may, dien tu, dft may. Kit qua la Han Quoc da mat mot so thi phin cho cac doi thu Trung Quoc Uong ITnh v\rc nay. So lieu thong ke cho thay thi phan linh ki?n dien hr cua Han QuIc d My da giam tir 5,3% ndm 2000 xuong con 4% nam 2006, trong khi do tiii phan cua Trung QuIc trong cimg ITnh vyc dd tdng mgnh tir 5,7% len den 15,9% Uong cimg ky (Chosun llbo, 2007).

Ben cgnh do, thuong mgi tai Dong A ciing c6 mpt sl chuyen dich quan trpng. Sy phan cong Uong npi bp cdc nganh san xuat mdy moc dupc tiln hdnh nhanh chong do cac nuoc dong logt tiln vl thupng nguon tren chuoi gid trj. Cac nude Ddng A vira xuat vd nhdp cdc linh ki?n, bp phgn lien quan din cac logi may mdc. Trung QuIc la nude diln hinh trong md hinh vira xudt, vira nhap ndy. Trung Qudc vira xuat vd vira nhgp nhilu loai lirdi kifn hay san pham trung gian vd nhung loai nay chu yeu xuat va nhap giOra Trung QuIc vdi cdc nude trong vimg Ddng A. Do vdy, Trung Quoc da mang lgi nhung co hp! eho cdc nude lang gieng, nhimg cac co hdi ndy Id khdng ddng deu cho cae nude ma tuy thupc vao ndng lyc canh tranh cua timg nude.

Nhu vdy, du da Ud thdnh cdng xudng ciia thi gidi va xuat khau nhieu loai hdng cdng nghiep, nhung Tnmg Quoc ciing Ud thanh thd trudng tieu thy hdng cdng nghifp cua cac nude khac d Ddng A. Nhilu nghien cim gan day ciing eho tiily tuy dd bdt dau tiln len thuang ngudn Uen chuoi gia tri, song Trung Quoc van phai phy thupc vao nhgp khau nhieu bp phan, linh kifn vd cdc san pham trung gian khac, nhat la nhirng mdt hdng cd ham lupng cdng nghf cao. Trong khu vyc, dd xuat hifn nhieu mgng san xuit khu vyc/todn cau mdi do eac cdng ty xuat xu tir cdc nude di sau, ddc bift eac nin kinh tl NIES vd thgm chi ca Trung Quoc. Vdi tiidp ky

gdn day, qud trhdi phat triln khdi tl eua Ddng A cho thay mdt hue tranh vdi sy thay ddi to ldn. Cimg vdi su ndi len cua nin kinh tl Tnmg Qudc, ASEAN, NIEs Id sy dinh Ue Uong tang trudng eua Nhat Bdn. Dilu nay da khiln eho nin kinh tl khu vyc Ddng A bdt ddu chuyin dich tir hf thing don eye ehi do Nhat Ban dan dat theo md hinh dan nhan bay sang nen kinh tl da cdt ldi, bi tac ddng bdi eae doi tac khac trong khu vyc. Neu nhu theo truyin thing trudc day cua md hinh dan nhan bay thi thdng thudng cac mang san xuat khu vyc do cdng ty ciia Nhat Ban tao ra vd hinh dnh cua hp trong dan rdian hay trong mgng sdn xuat Id d vi tri dau ddn, cdn eae nude khde trong khu vyc tham gia vao cae mang sdn xuat ed sdn dd hay md hinh dan nhgn bay dd d nhiing vi tri dang sau. Cdn bay gid buc trardi da cd them nhirng sac difn mdi. Trong burc tranh mang sdn xudt khu vyc dd ed sy xudt hien eua nhieu mang san xuat khu vyc do cac cdng ty ciia Han Qude hay Trung Qude dan ddu. Diln hinh ed thi ke den nhiing ten tudi ndi tiing nhu Samsung, Huyndai, Lennovo...

Nhu vdy, vdi sy xudt hifn cua cdc mang san xudt khu vyc do cdc cdng ty cua Han Qudc, Trung Qudc dung dau, md hinh phan cdng lao ddng khu vyc theo kieu dan nhgn bay dudng nhu da cd nhiing thay ddi co ban vl kit cau. Ddu dan khdng chi la mdt con nhan ma cd thi da la nhilu hom, ba hodc hom nira. Ddng thdi, phia sau ede nude mdi tham gia vao eiing da nhilu hom, ed thi kl them cdc nude Ddng Duomg, Myanmar. Ve ban chat md ndi, ed the kilu phan cdng lao ddng theo tdng ndc van cdn trong kit cdu dan nhan da thay ddi dang ke. Trung Quoc la nude tham gia md hhih phdn cdng lao ddng dan nhan bay thi hf mdi. Trudc day, sy phan cdng lao ddng giira Nhdt Ban, Han Qudc va Trung Quoc dupe die hifn dudi hinh thire Id tan dyng ngudn lao ddng re cua Trung Quoc, cy thi: Han Qude vd Nhdt Ban xuat khdu

NhOng vin d4 KINH Tt VA CHINH TR| THt Gl6l Sd 2(202) 2013

Mo hinh dan nhan bay va nhOng chuyen bien.. Le Thj Ai Lam - Bui Thdi Quyen linh kien va ban thanh phdm cho Trung Qu6c, Trung Quoc tan dvmg Igri the ve lao dgng re cua minh thuc hien lap rap va hoan thien san pham sau do xuat khau ngugc gd lai Nhat Ban, My va Tay Au.

Trong nganh dien tu, nam 2009 Trung Qudc da nhap 48,7 ty USD linh kien tir Han Qudc va 45 ty USD tir Nhat Ban, trong khi dd Trung Qudc xuit khau 61,2 ty USD sang My va 70 ty USD sang Tay Au. Nam 2010, Trung Qudc thang du thuomg mai 183 ty USD My nhung lai hi tham hut tdi 88,6 ty USD do nhap khiu linh kifn, nguyen vat lieu diu vao va ban thanh pham, trong dd 65,7 ty USD la nhap khau tir Nhat Ban*.

Tuy idiien, nganh cdng nghiep san xuat nguyen vat lieu dau vao va cac linh kien cua Trung Qudc dang rat phat trien. Dieu nay se lam thay doi sg phan cdng lao ddng hifn cd giira Trung Quoc, Han Quoc va Nhat Ban.

Khi gia nhan cdng cua cac vimg duyen hai phia Ddng Trung Quoc khdng cdn re nua, Trung Qudc bit diu digc hifn thue ngoai va tai phan cdng lao dgng cho nhimg nori lao dgng re hom va rat cd the la ca cac nude khac trong khu vgc ching ban nhdm eac nude Campuehia, Lao, Myanmar, Vift Nam (CLMV). Dac bift la sau khi FTA giira Tnmg Qudc va ASEAN chinh thuc ed hieu Igc tir 1 thang 1 nam 2010, thuomg mai giira Trung Qudc va CLMV tang manh. Gia tri xuit khiu eua Trung Qudc sang cac nude CLMV tang tir 19,84 ty USD nam 2009 len 28,41 ty USD nam 2010 (hromg duomg mire tang 43%)'. Trong khi dd, gia gi rdiap khau eua Trung Qude tir eae nude CLMV cimg tang tir

' Shim Sang-Hyung (2011), Rapidly changing division of labor in East Asia, POSRI Chindia Quarterly, Autumn 2011

' Yin, Xing Min 2012, new divison of labor between China and CLMV region, BRC research report No. 7, Bangkok research center, IDE-JETRO, Bangkok, Thailand

5,81 ty USD nam 2009 len 8,65 ty USD nam 2010 (muc tang khoang 50%). Thang du thuang mai cua Trung Qudc ddi vdi khdi nay tang hromg img tix 14,03 ty USD nam 2009 len 19,76 ty USD nam 2010. Trung Qudc chu yeti xuat khau cae ban thanh phim va nguyen vat lifu cho cac nude nay. Tnmg Quoc san xuat rit nhilu linh kifn thidt bi difn va may mdc chd tao cho Vidt Nam va Myaiuna, hong khi dd lai xuit khiu cac linh phg kidn may mac cho Campuehia. Ngugc lai, Tnmg Qude eiing nhap khau nhiimg san pham va nguydn phu lifu nay tir Vift Nam, Myanmar va Campuehia va gia tri nhap khau ngay cang tang ldn. Ridng nam 2010, ty If nhap khau/xuat khau cua Tnmg Qudc ddi vdi Lao la 80%, ddi vdi Vidt Nam la 30%, doi vdi Myanmar la 28%, va thap nhat la vdi Campuehia 7%. Didu nay cho thay, san xuat cua Tnmg Qudc ngay cang phu thugc vao ngudn nguydn lifu va linh ph\i kifn tir cae nude CLMV.

Dac bift la sau gan dgng dit va sdng thin Hch su cua Nhat Ban, hinh thuc phan cdng lao ddng trong khu vgc Ddng A ed nhidu thay doi. Cac cdng ty Nhat Ban cang tang cudng diu hr ra nude ngoai va diem den luc nky khdng phai la cae nen kinh td NIEs nira ma la eac nude d cap thu 3 va thu 4 trong md hinh dan nhan bay (chang ban Viet Nam).

3. Ket luan Md hinh dan nhan bay xuat hifn tir nkm

1943. Mac du md hinh nay da cd sg thay ddi va bien thai tir mdt con nhan dau dan (Nhat Ban) sang nhieu con nhan diu dan (bao gdm Han Qudc va Trung Qudc), hr 4 giai doan phat hien cdng nghifp' sang cd thd it hom 4 giai doan do cd sg phat tridn vd cdng nghd thdng tin va ky nang eua lao ddng nhimg, eho ddn nay, nd van edn gia tri gong vifc giai thich qua trinh phan cdng lao ddng, sg hinh thanh, phat tridn mang san xuit khu vgc Ddng A.

-Nhi/ng vin di KINH T VA CHINH TR| TH Gl6ri Sd 2(202) 2013

L6 Thj Al LAm - Bui Thdi Quyen Mo hinh dan nhan bay vd nhOng chuyin bi§n. Mo hinh dan nhan bay la nen tang cho su

hinh thanh va phat trien cac lien ket kinh te va mgng sdn xuat khu v\rc Dong A.

Su 16n manh eiia nen kinh te Trung Quoc vira dat ra thach thuc ciing nhu co hgi cho cac nude lang gieng. Thach thuc khi Trung Qu6c vira san xuat va xuat khau tit ca cac san phdm tir cong nghe thap den cac sdn phdm cong nghe

cao. Nhung xudt khdu nhilu tid Trung Qu6c ciing phai nhap khdu ddu vao nhilu, va ddy la CO hoi cho cac nude lang giing tham gia vao mang san xudt. Ben eanh dd, Trung QuIc dang mat dan lgi the ve gid rdian cdng, viec tai phan cdng lao ddng sang cac nude lang giing da tao ra nhilu co hdi cho cdc nude Lao, CLMV diam gia vao mang san xudt khu vyc* Tdi lif u tham khao:

1. Eric D. Ramstetter and Shahrazat Binti Haji Ahmad (2010): Recent Economic Downturns and Foreign Direct Investment to and from Asia, forking Paper Series Vol. 2010-03, The Intemational Centre for the Study of East Asian Development, Kitakyushu, March.

2. Haddad Mona (2007): Trade integration in East Asia : the role of China and Production networks, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServerAVDSP/IB/2007 /03/06/ 000016406_20070306101249/Rendered/PDF/wps4160.pdf

3. Hanson, Gordon., Raymond Mataloni and Matthew Slaughter (2005): Vertical Production Networks in Multinational Firms. Review of Economics and Statistics 87, pp.664-678.

4. Hattari Rabin, Ramkishen S. Rajan & Shandre Thangavelu (2007): Intra - ASEAN FDI flows and the Role of China and India: Trend and Determinants.

5. Henry Wai-chung Yeung (2006a): From Followers to Market Leaders: Asian Electronics Firms in the Global Economy, National University of Singapore, Working Paper Series Vol. 2006-16.

6. Jomo K. S. Economic Development and Regional Cooperation in East Asia, http://www.siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEASTASIAPAClFIC/Resources/226/Visions_6.pdf

7. Kehan Harbhajan & Varinder P. Singh (2006): Outsourcing and Offshoring in the 21 Century: A Socio-Economic Perspective, IDEA group Publishing, Melbourne, Singapore.

8. Ken IMAI & SHIU Jingming (2007): A Divergent Path of industrial Upgrading: Emergence and Evolution of the Mobile Handset Industry in China, Discussion paper; No. 125 IDE.

9. Ma Hong (2005): On Economic Cooperation in East Asia ICSEAD - The intemational Center for the study of East Asian development.

10. Masahiro Kawai (2004): Regional Economic integration and cooperation in East Asia, http://www.oecd.Org/dataoecd/43/7/33628756.pdf

11. Phgm Truong Hoang va Ngd Diirc Anh (2008): Phat trien nguon nhdn lire cdng nghicp trong thdi ky cdng nghiip hod, hi?n dgi hod, http://www.vdforg.vn/Doc/2008/VDFConf_WIPHoangVie.pdf

12. Shim Sang-Hyung (2011): Rapidly Changing Division of Labor in East Asia, POSRI Chindia Quarterly, Autumn. 13. Shimizu Kazushi (2005): Issues and Tasks in Intra-ASEANEconomic Cooperation After the Asian Economic Crisis, Joumal of polihcal economy, Vol.71, No.2/3 pp. 219 - 236. 14. Trang web Ting eye Thong ke Trung QuIc, http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2010/indexeh.htm 15. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, World Investment Report 2011. Yin, Xing Min (2012): New Divison of Labor Between China and CLMV Region, BRC Research Report No. 7, Bangkok research center, IDE-JETRO, Bangkok, Thailand. 16. Youngsoo Kim (1997): Technological Capabilities and Samsung Electronics' Intemational Production Network in Asia. BRIE, Working Paper 106. 17. Tran vdn Thg: Bien dgng kinh te Ddng A vd con dudng cdng nghicp hda Vl^t Nam.

NhOng vin <Ji KINH vA CHfNH TR! THt G\tf\ So 2(202) 2013