demand-income elasticity of leisure boats

DEMAND-INCOME ELASTICITY OF LEISUREBOATS

C. Pérez-Labajos1,* and B. Blanco2

Received 13 September 2008; received in revised form 25 September 2008; accepted 16 March 2009

ABSTRACT

Demand-income models for recreational sailing can explain the evolution of therecreational fleet using the evolution of income for a specific country, region andperiod. These models are useful in that their logarithmic transformations allow thevalue of the demand-income elasticity to be obtained for recreational crafts in theregion considered. Moreover, under the hypothesis of the maintenance of the valueof this elasticity, the expected variation in the fleet can be determined from theexpected income data.

The aim of this work is to formalise a model for the recreational fleet of a coun-try or region which will allow the evolution of the fleet to be determined withrespect to the changes in income taking place in the region, both in absolute and inrelative terms. Results are obtained for the demand-income elasticity of recreation-al crafts for the various recreational fleets of Spain grouped into seven geographicregions.

Keywords: Nautical tourism, recreational fleet, income elasticity.

INTRODUCTION

General Framework

Recreational sailing is one of the fastest-growing areas of nautical tourism in modernsocieties, particularly over the last three decades (Favro & Glamuzina, 2005; Horak,

JOURNAL OF MARITIME RESEARCH 53

Journal of Maritime Research, Vol. VI. No. 1, pp. 53-74, 2009Copyright © 2009. SEECMAR

Printed in Santander (Spain). All rights reservedISSN: 1697-4840

1Profesor of Marite Economics, Department of Sciences & Techniques of Navigation and Ship Construction,The University of Cantabria, Germán Gamazo, 1 39004 Santander (Spain),Tel. 942 201362; Fax 942 201303 E-mail:[email protected]. Ocean & Coastal Planning & Management R&D Group, University of Cantabria, Gamazo 1,39004 Santander, Spain. 2Profesor of Business Administration. Business Administration Department, University ofCantabria, Avda. de los Castros, 39005 Santander, Spain.Tel. 942 201897 E-mail: [email protected].

*Corresponding author: Tel: +34 942 201362; Fax: +34 942 201303. E-mail: [email protected].

5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:51 PÆgina 53

Marusic, & Favro, 2006; Miller & Auyong, 1991). Nautical tourism is a segment ofthe tourist industry (Xiao & Smith, 2006), made up of a wide variety of activities thattake place in the marine environment. These include both sea-based leisure activitiessuch as cruises, angling, scuba diving, sailing, windsurfing, rowing, yachting, boattrips, marine ecotourism, tourist submarines, equipment hire, etc.,(Miller, 1993) andalso the development of infrastructures such as recreational ports, marinas, sea-sportsinstallations, sailing clubs, etc. (Kovačic, Gržetic, & Dundovic, 2006; Lee, 2001).Nautical tourism is also closely related to other activities that make up coastal tourism(restaurants, hotels, sports installations, second homes, renting of property, etc.).Recent years have seen an increase in the literature on these matters, especially asregards environmental aspects and the sustainable development of the so-called oceanand coastal tourism (C. M. Hall, 2001).

Recreational sailing can be defined as a tourist activity that takes in a wide rangeof services and infrastructures (Cerit & Içöz, 2006; Lukovic, 2007), whose maindirect consumer is the craft.Thus, while the tourist is the unit of consumption of thevarious tourist products and services in general tourist activity, it is the crafts thatmake up the unit of consumption of the various services and infrastructures offeredby the tourist activity in recreational sailing. According to the terminology estab-lished by the World Tourism Organisation (WTO), recreational sailing corresponds,for any specific country or region, to the category of domestic tourism which, inturn, includes inbound and receptor tourism. In the developed countries, the domes-tic tourism is clearly greater than receptor tourism while the opposite is true of theunder-developed countries.

Leisure activities such as those of recreational sailing are essential in today’s soci-ety but they are, paradoxically, subject to a permanent contradiction. On the onehand, there is an increasing social demand for such activities (Baine, Howard, Kerr,Edgar, & Toral, 2007; D. Hall, 2000; D. R. Hall, 1998; Hawkins & Roberts, 1994;Kovačic, Boškovic, & Favro, 2006; Nijkamp & Verdonkschot, 1995; Pearce, 1988;Smith & Jenner, 1995; Taïeb & Verdiére, 1990; Wong, 1998; Wrangham, 1999), butthere is also a lack of social acceptance due to the possible negative effects (Archer,1985; Baines, 1987; Beekhuis, 1981; Hanna & Wells, 1992; Hawkins & Roberts,1994; Marchand & Skračic, 2006; Phillips & Jones, 2006). When the problem is notaddressed globally, but rather in a self-interested non-objective way, a negative pic-ture is painted which is not founded on any scientific principle (Buckley & Panell,1992; Charlier, Haulot, & Veryheyden, 1978; Meyer-Arendt, 2002; Milne, 1990;Wong, 1998).

It is a fact, however, that there has been an increase in nautical recreation activitywhich requires an organised development. Thus, the challenge facing society is notto deprive itself of such an important source of leisure but rather to develop and pro-mote it in a sustainable way from an economic, social and environmental viewpoint.

DEMAND-INCOME ELASTICITY OF LEISURE BOATS

Volume VI. Number 1. year 200954

5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:51 PÆgina 54

Aims and Objetives

The present work focuses on the evolution of the fleets of recreational crafts of acountry or region with respect to the behaviour of the consumers or demanders ofrecreational sailing services or infrastructures.

The aim of the present work is twofold: first, to formalise a model for the recre-ational fleet of a country or region which will allow the evolution of the fleet to bedetermined with respect to the changes in income taking place in the region, both inabsolute and in relative terms; and then to apply this model to the recreational fleetof a specific country or region.

This model will form a tool which may prove useful both to the public and theprivate sector in a specific spatial domain. Knowledge of the evolution of the fleet inresponse to the changes in income of a region will provide demand-income elasticityvalues for recreational crafts in this spatial domain. For a specific elasticity value, theexpected magnitude of the fleet could be predicted in response to variations inincome, assuming that the rest of the variables remained constant.This would enablethe regional government with authority in this sector to plan and organise the sectoron the basis of the expected magnitude of the fleet. At the same time, knowledge ofthe evolution of the magnitude of the fleet would guide operators and companiesworking in the sector in the development of strategies based on the foreseeable typesand volumes of business of the fleet of a specific region.

To this end, the following sections describe the methodology, its application tothe Spanish recreational fleet, the results obtained from the estimates made andsome discussion and overall conclusions of the research.

METHODOLOGY

The methodology is divided into two clearly distinct stages. In the first stage, atheoretical model is built of the demand for recreational crafts and the concept ofdemand-income elasticity of recreational crafts is formalised. These are aspectswhich are used as reference elements in the empirical modelling process.

In the second stage, the econometrics model of the evolution of the recreationalcrafts fleet is formalised as a function of the regional income, which will be used inthe empirical estimation.

Theoretical demand for recreational craft model.

What variables might condition or determine the behaviour of the evolution of therecreational fleet of a country or region? The magnitude or size of the recreationalfleet of a country or region i in a period t will be determined by the crafts existing inthe period t-1 plus the difference between new additions and withdrawals. The newincorporations will depend on demand variables. The withdrawals will be the resultmainly of losses and sales to other countries/regions. In the developed seafaring

C. PEREZ-LABAJOS AND B. BLANCO


5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:51 PÆgina 55

countries, the withdrawals usually make up a very small percentage with respect tothe incorporations, so that the difference is positive and fleets are on the increase.

Thus, the demand for recreational crafts is a vital component in the evolution ofthe fleet, and the demand model may prove to be a useful theoretical frameworkwith which to address the search for the explicative variables for the evolution of thefleet. In this context, the classic economics model of supply and demand would indi-cate that the demand for recreational crafts varies according to the tastes and prefer-ences for such goods, on prices and related goods and on levels of income. Thismodel of the theoretical demand for recreational crafts for a country or region i in aperiod t can thus be expressed as:

(1)

where:Ni,t = is the demand for recreational crafts of a region or country i in a period t.L i,t = tastes or preferences of region i for recreational crafts in period t.P i,t = prices of recreational crafts in region i in the period t.Ps i,t = prices of goods substituting recreational crafts (other crafts) in region i in

period t.Pc i,t = prices of complementary goods of recreational crafts (fuel, mooring,

insurance, etc.) in region i in period t.I i,t = regional income of the population region i in the period t.

The decisive demand variables outlined above can be used to guide the selectionof the explicative variables of the empirical models of behaviour of the evolution ofthe recreational fleet. Of all of these variables, the present work focuses its attentionon that of income, since data is available for regions or countries drawn up and pub-lished by public and private organisms providing solvent statistical series for theelaboration of empirical models.

The behaviour of demand for recreational crafts in response to income variations,when the rest of the variables remain constant, is given by the following equation:

(2)

The demand for recreational crafts and the income of a region i in a period t,vary in the same direction. Increases in income raise the demand for recreationalcrafts and vice-versa.

Demand-income elasticity for recreational crafts

Now that the qualitative relation between the demand for recreational crafts and theincome of a region has been established, the next step is to verify the response of the

,

,

0i t

i t

NI

∂>

∂

( ), , , , , ,, , , ,i t i t i t i t i t i tN f L P Ps Pc I=



5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:51 PÆgina 56

demand for recreational crafts in response to variations in income; that is, the quan-titative relation.

In general, when the income increases/decreases, certain goods receive agreater/smaller proportion of the consumers’ budget. The demand-income elasticitymeasures the response of the demand for goods to changes in income, that is, thepercentage change in the quantity demanded with respect to the percentage changein income. This measurement of the sensitivity of demand is determined by the fol-lowing equation.

(3)

where:

= Demand-income elasticity of a goods Q in a region i in a period t.

= Variation in the quantity demanded of a goods Q in a region i in a period t.

= Quantity demanded of a goods Q in a region or country i in a period t.

= Income of the population in a region or country i in a period t.

= Variation in income of the population of a region i in a period t.

The response of the consumers to changes in income differs according to thetype of goods considered. Thus, the elasticity values will indicate which type ofgoods we are dealing with. Table 1 shows the elasticity values of different types ofgoods and their interpretation.

,i tI∂,i tI,i tQ

,i tQ∂,

( )i tQλ

( ) ( ), , , , ,( )i t i t i t i t i tQ Q Q I Iλ = ∂ ∂



Type of goods Condition Interpretation

Basic goods,( ) 0i tQλ < These are goods whose demand falls when income increases.

The elasticity of these goods is always negative.

Normal goods withunsatisfied demand ,( ) 0

i tQλ > These are goods whose demand increases when incomeincreases. The elasticity of these goods is always positive.

Necessary goods,0 ( ) 1i tQλ> <

These are normal goods whose demanded quantity increasesproportionally less than the increases in income. As theincome increases, the participation of necessary goods in theconsumer’s budget decreases.

Luxury goods,( ) 1i tQλ >

These are normal goods whose demanded quantity increasesproportionally more than the increases in income. As theincome increase, the participation of luxury goods in the con-sumer’s budget will also increase.

Normal goods withsatisfied demand

,( ) 0i tQλ =

These are goods whose demand remains unaltered when theincome increases. The elasticity of these goods always equalszero.

Table1. Demand-income elasticity of the various goods.

5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:51 PÆgina 57

In accordance with the formalisation established in Table 1, recreational craftsare identified as luxury goods. Thus, the following hypothesis is proposed for use inthe estimation of the empirical model.

HYPOTHESIS 1: Recreational crafts are luxury goods whose income elasticitymust be greater than the unit.

Empirical econometrics model of the evolution of the recreational crafts fleet.

The aim is to model in both absolute and relative terms the evolution of the recre-ational fleet of a region using the income data for that region and the linear regres-sion technique. Thus, the number of recreational crafts (N) of a region or countryusing the income data (I) of that region will respond to a mathematical equation as:

(4)

where:Ni,t = number of crafts of the recreational fleet of the zone i in period t.αi = constant of the model of zone i.Ii,t = income or added value of zone i in period t.βi = coefficient of the added value variable of zone i. Represents for the region

i –in absolute terms– the increase in the number of crafts when the addedvalue increases by one unit.

t = Period t (year t)i = Geographic zone, region or country

Equation 4 has been denominated ‘absolute evolution model’ or Type 1, as theregression coefficient represents the increase in the number of crafts when the corre-sponding explicative variable – the income - increases by one unit.

If neperian logarithms are applied to the N and I variables of equation (4), thenew adjustment, which would be a logarithmic transform, will correspond to the fol-lowing expression:

(5)

where:Ln(Ni,t) = neperian logarithm of the number of the number of crafts of the

recreational fleet of zone i in period tθi = constant of the model of zone iλi = Coefficient representing income elasticity of zone iLn(Ii,t) = Logarithm of income of zone i in period tt = Period t (year t)i = Geographic zone

,t ,( ) ( )i i i i tLn N Ln Iθ λ= +

,t ,N i i i i tIα β= +



5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:51 PÆgina 58

Equation 5 has been denominated ‘relative evolution’ or Type II model, as theregression coefficient represents the elasticity, that is, the percentage increase in thenumber of recreational crafts when the corresponding explicative variable, theincome, increases by one per cent.

Thus, if equation (5) is derived, we get ; from which the followingequation is obtained:

(6)

where λi is the demand-income elasticity for recreational crafts in zone i, indicatingthe percentage variation in the number of recreational crafts in zone i in response tothe percentage variation in the added value of zone i.

One important aspect that should be noted is the interpretation of the regressioncoefficients. In the case of the regressions in absolute terms, or Type 1 models, thecoefficients represent the increase in the number of recreational crafts in zone i whenthe corresponding explicative variable increases by one unit. However, if the variable toexplicate, and the explicative variable, are expressed in logarithms, the adjusted coeffi-cients represent elasticities, that is, percentage increases in the number of crafts whenthe explicative variable increases by one per cent.These latter ones are Type II models.

Case Study: Spain

Nautical tourism in Spain, both outbound and domestic, is highly dynamic. There issubstantial nautical activity in and among the Spanish coastal regions. According tothe Spanish Institute of Tourism (Turespaña), outbound nautical tourism in Spaingenerates important annual revenues, the average expenditure per nautical holidaytrip is higher than that of conventional tourism and the average stay is 11.37 days.Turespaña has signed an agreement with the Autonomous Communities to promoteand develop this type of tourism.

Spain disposes of official statistics on its recreational fleets and the income of eachof its regions. The recreational fleet is distributed over base ports through 10 coastalAutonomous Communities (Basque Country, Cantabria, Asturias, Galicia, Andalusia,Murcia, Valencia, Catalonia, The Balearic Islands, The Canary Islands) and twoAutonomous Cities (Ceuta and Melilla).The recreational craft statistics are drawn upby the regional harbour masters and are sent to the Head Office of the Merchant Navyof the Ministry of Public Works, which is where the new statistics are generated. Asfor the regional income statistics, the added value data of the Autonomous Communi-ties and of Spain can be obtained from the data bases, “IneBase” and “Tempus” andfrom the “Regional Accountancy of Spain” of the National Statistics Institute (INE),

, ,

, ,

i t i ti

i t i t

N NI I

λ∂

=∂

, ,

, ,

i t i ti

i t i t

N IN I

λ∂ ∂

=



5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:51 PÆgina 59

and from the Hispadat data base, which is drawn up using information from theRegional Accountancy of Spain by researchers on the Hispalink project.

For the purposes of the empirical estimation of the present work, the regions havebeen grouped into six zones which correspond to the various sea faces and a seventhrepresenting the whole of Spain, as indicated in the following list (see Figure 1):

— Zone 1. Basque Country, Cantabria and Asturias— Zone 2. Galicia— Zone 3. Canary Islands— Zone 4. Andalusia, Ceuta and Melilla— Zone 5. Valencia and Murcia— Zone 6. Catalonia and Balearic Islands— Zone 7. Whole of Spain

RESULTS

The estimation of all of the Type I and II models for all of the zones mentioned wasmade by applying the linear regression technique by ordinary least squares for the



Fig.1. Coastal Regions of Spain. Regions: 1. Basque Country, Cantabria and Asturias; 2. Galicia;3. Canary Islands; 4. Andalusia, Ceuta and Melilla; 5. Valencia and Murcia; 6. Catalonia

and Balearic Islands; 7. Whole of Spain.

5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:51 PÆgina 60

period 1994-2005, for which there were data available. Thus, 12 observations weremade in total.The software used was the E-views programme.

Type 1 Model Estimations

For the estimation of the Type I Model, or absolute evolution model, the number ofrecreational crafts of the various geographic zones have been used as the endogenousvariables and the Gross Added Value of each geographic zone at basic prices in mil-lions of euros based on 1995 as the exogenous variables.The results of the estimationof the coefficients and the individual significance of the variables of the Type I models analysed are shown in Table 2. The statistics for the joint significance of theType I models are shown in Table 3. Graphs showing the real, estimated and residualseries are illustrated in Figure 2.



GEOGRAPHIC ZONE Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

Zone 1 α1 -961.2454 2546.95 -0.37741 0.7138I1 0.000522 5.45E-05 9.591873 0.0000

Zone 2 α2 -7259.263 2835.549 -2.56009 0.0284I2 0.001315 0.00011 11.95186 0.0000

Zone 3 α3 -8947.89 2704.297 -3.308767 0.0079I3 0.001521 1.48E-04 10.30513 0.0000

Zone 4 α4 -13223.24 3872.276 -3.414849 0.0066I4 0.000781 0.000058 13.37313 0.0000

Zone 5 α5 -16198.54 10359.06 -1.563708 0.1490I5 0.001046 1.82E-04 5.751119 0.0002

Zone 6 α6 -73623.53 11860.08 -6.207677 0.0001I6 0.001746 0.000121 14.40808 0.0000

Zone 7 α7 -108066 13313.75 -8.116874 0.0000I7 0.000755 2.82E-05 26.7639 0.0000

Table 2. Coefficients and individual significance of the Type I model variables of the number of recreational crafts per geographic zone.

Statistics Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7

R-squared 0.9019 0.9345 0.9139 0.94704 0.76784 0.95404 0.9862

Adjusted R-squared 0.8921 0.9280 0.9053 0.94175 0.74463 0.94944 0.9848

Durbin-Watson stat 2.3483 2.1621 1.2289 2.28503 0.76805 1.31383 3.0156

Mean dependent var 23338.4 26483 18724.4 38184.0 42951.6 96499.5 246181.1

S.D. dependent var 2771.8 3416.1 3603.0 6695.48 8476.56 17190.7 40441.8

F-statistic 92.004 142.84 106.19 178.84 33.0753 207.592 716.31

Prob(F-statistic) 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.00018 0.00000 0.0000

Table 3. Joint significance statisitcs for the Type I models of the number of recreational crafts per geographic zone.

5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:51 PÆgina 61

Number of recreational crafts per geographic zone. Real, estimated and residualseries of Type I models



��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

�

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

�

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

�

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

�

��

��

��

Fig. 2. Basque Country, Cantabria and Asturias. Fig. 3. Galicia.

Fig. 4. Canary Islands,

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

�

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

�

��

��

��

Fig. 6. Valencia and Murcia. Fig. 7. Catalonia and Balearic Islands.

Fig. 5. Andalusia, Ceuta and Melilla.

5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 62

Type II Models Estimations

In the Type II, or relative evolution,models, the endogenous variable is theneperian logarithm of the number ofrecreational crafts in the zone and theexogenous variable is the neperian logarithm for the Gross Added Valueof the zone at basic prices in constantmillions of euros based on 1995. All ofthe models have been adjusted for theperiod 1994-2005 with 12 observa-tions. The results for the estimation ofthe coefficients and the individual sig-

nificance of the variables for the Type II models analysed are shown in Table 4. Thejoint significance statistics for the Type II models are shown in Table 5. The graphsshowing the real, estimated and residual series are shown in Figure 3.



Statistics Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7

R-squared 0.89325 0.94307 0.88848 0.93395 0.74381 0.94673 0.98649Adjusted R-squared 0.88257 0.93738 0.87733 0.92735 0.71819 0.94140 0.98514Durbin-Watson stat 2.20506 2.21674 1.23986 2.46201 0.77648 1.10420 3.23144Mean dependent var 10.0511 10.1764 9.82019 10.5359 10.6510 11.4616 12.4012S.D. dependent var 0.12273 0.13159 0.19595 0.17647 0.18892 0.18901 0.16666F-statistic 83.6741 165.652 79.6695 141.402 29.0328 177.723 730.220Prob(F-statistic) 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00031 0.00000 0.00000

GEOGRAPHIC ZONE Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

Zone 1 Θ1 -8.669091 2.04655 -4.235953 0.0017Ln(I1) 1.060652 0.115952 9.147357 0.0000

Zone 2 Θ2 -11.97373 1.721015 -6.957365 0.0000Ln(I2) 1.298673 0.100902 12.8706 0.0000

Zone 3 Θ3 -14.66524 2.743298 -5.345844 0.0003Ln(I3) 1.465366 0.164172 8.925777 0.0000

Zone 4 Θ4 -13.52168 2.023182 -6.683372 0.0001Ln(I4) 1.336901 0.112427 11.89127 0.0000

Zone 5 Θ5 -12.1836 4.23798 -2.87486 0.016Ln(I5) 1.279733 0.237506 5.388208 0.0003

Zone 6 Θ6 -22.46254 2.544734 -8.827071 0.0000Ln(I6) 1.844694 0.138373 13.33128 0.0000

Zone 7 Θ7 -16.47438 1.068589 -15.41695 0.0000Ln(I7) 1.446586 0.053533 27.02258 0.0000

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

��

�

��

��

��

Fig. 8. Whole of Spain.

Table 4. Coefficients and individual significance Type II Model variables of the logarithm of the number of recreational crafts per geographic zone.

Table 5. Statistics on joint significance of Type II models of logarithm of the number of recreational crafts per geographic zone.

5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 63

Logarithm of number of recreational crafts per geographic zone. Real, estimatedand residual series of Type II models.



��

�

� �

� �

� �

� �

�

� �

��

��

��

��

�

� �

� �

� �

� � �

� �

� ��

� ��

��

��

��

Fig. 9. Basque Country, Cantabria and Asturias. Fig. 10. Galicia.

Fig. 11. Canary Islands.

��

�

� �

� �

� �

�

�

� �

��

��

��

��

�

�

�

�

� �

� ��

� ��

��

��

��

Fig. 13. Valencia and Murcia. Fig. 14. Catalonia and Balearic Islands.

Fig. 12. Andalusia, Ceuta and Melilla.

5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 64

Analysis of reults of estimations

The results for the individual signifi-cance of the variables, both regardingstatistic t and Prob, show a high signifi-cance of the variables, both in the valueand in the logarithm models for all ofthe zones analysed. The only twoexceptions which show a higher signifi-cance correspond to parameters α1 andα5, which are the constants of the TypeI models of zones 1 and 5, respectively.

All of the βi and λi parameters esti-mated show positive signs. Thus, all of

the models indicate that the recreational fleet of a zone for a specific period dependson the evolution of the Added Value of that zone. In all cases, the relation is direct: thehigher the added value (profits and salaries) the greater the fleet will be in the future.

The λi, coefficients corresponding to the logarithmic model are the elasticities.These values, ordered from high to low, are grouped in Table 6.The elasticities indi-cate the percentage variation in the fleet of the zone in response to a percentage vari-ation in the added value for this zone. In all of the models, the elasticity is greaterthan 1, which is consistent with the identification of recreational crafts with the luxury goods category. However, the value of this elasticity shows great differencesbetween some zones and others. As can be observed, the greatest response takesplace in Catalonia and The Balearic Islands (1.84) and in the Canary Islands (1.46)which are the ones with elasticities above the Spanish average (1.44). The lowestvalue is for zone 1, slightly higher than the unit (1.06).

Table 6. Income-Elasticity of the number of recreational crafts per geographic zone.



Fig. 15. Whole of Spain.

Geographic Zone λλi

Zone 6 Catalonia and Balearic Islands 1.844694Zone 3 Canary Islands 1.465366Zone 7 Whole of Spain 1.446586Zone 4 Andalusia, Ceuta and Melilla 1.336901Zone 2 Galicia 1.298673Zone 5 Valencia and Murcia 1.279733 Zone 1 Basque Country, Cantabria and Asturias 1.060652

The results for the joint significance of Type I and II models mostly presenthigh determination coefficients, both R-squared and adjusted with two degrees offreedom (Adjusted R-squared), which, together with the high value of the Snedecor

5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 65

F, makes it possible to confirm that the joint significance is high. The worst resultscorrespond to zone 5, Valencia and Murcia, with an R-squared value of 0.76 and0.74 for Type I and II models respectively.

Similarly, the values of the Durbin-Watson d statistic make it possible to rejectthe existence of autocorrelation with a significance of 1% in all cases, except for twowhich arise in areas of doubt, that of zone 5, Valencia and Murcia and zone 7, Spain.

These models, for zone 5 and especially for zone 7, improve significantly if amobile average for the period is added, gathering the influence of the pre-existingstock on the fleet size of a certain period (that is, the existing fleet level or initial fleetsize). In this case, the doubt related to the autocorrelation disappears and the R-squared value increases substantially up to 0.99 in the case of Spain). It was preferredto keep the same model for all zones for the purposes of coherence when it comes tocomparing results and elasticity values, and also because, to a certain extent, the ini-tial fleet level can be registered in the constant term of the equation.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

From the economics point of view, recreational sailing takes in goods termed luxurygoods, as these are normal consumer goods with unsatisfied demand of an incomeelasticity greater than the unit. However, apart from these general economics con-siderations, two types of country or region can be distinguished, according to thesocial and taxation treatment applied to these goods.

There are countries or regions that consider recreational sailing as a leisure activ-ity which, at the same time, allows certain values and traditions to be maintained.These offer a committed institutional support, do not consider recreational crafts asluxury goods from the taxation point of view and promote the development of recre-ational ports.These countries or regions show high elasticity-income values, as smallvariations in income lead to great variations in the demand for recreational crafts.

In contrast, other countries and regions do not offer institutional support to allof the recreational sailing activities, though they may do so partially. Thus, althoughthey may agree that this is a leisure activity which is socially desirable in part (forexample, sailing and rowing), they consider that from the taxation point of view, thecrafts must be considered as luxury goods and recreational ports are not to be pro-moted by the public sector. These countries or regions present elasticity-income val-ues slightly greater than the unit, as great variations in income are required to pro-duce great variations in the demand for recreational crafts.

The income-demand models for recreational sailing can explain the evolution ofthe recreational fleet from the evolution of the income for a specific country, orregion and period. These models have the further advantage that their logarithmictransforms allow the value of the income elasticity of the evolution of recreationalcrafts in this region to be obtained. Thus, under the hypothesis of the maintenance



5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 66

of the value of this elasticity, the expected variation in the fleet can be determinedfrom the data on the current fleet and that of current and predicted income. Thereare several public and private organisms that elaborate income predictions in thedeveloped countries. With the above tools and resources, the governments of a coun-try or region can foresee the evolution of their fleets and carry out a planning of theirport infrastructures that responds to the real needs.

The results obtained for the income elasticities of the demand for recreationalcrafts confirm that in Spain, recreational crafts are considered luxury goods. Thesevalues place Spain in the group of countries in which nautical activities are givenonly partial support. The average response of the Spanish recreational fleet toincome variations is 144.66%, that is for every increase of 1% in the national income,the demand for recreational crafts will increase by 1.44%.Thus, under the hypothesisof invariability of this elasticity, and taking into account an annual growth in thenational income of 3%, the recreational crafts will increase by 4.32%. This, in com-pliance with the census figures for Spain (see Section 3), means a rhythm of growthof around 13,261 crafts per year. However, not all regions respond with the sameelasticity.The Mediterranean regions of Catalonia and The Balearic Islands (zone 6)present the highest values with a response of 18446%, so that for income increases of3%, the crafts will increase by 5.52%, that is, 6386 crafts/year. In contrast, the north-ern regions of the Basque Country, Cantabria y Asturias (zone 1), show demand-income elasticity values for recreational crafts of 106.06% almost at the threshold ofthe values of luxury goods. For predicted income increases of 3%, similar variationsare expected for the fleet, around 3.18%.

In normal situations, port planning responds to increases in recreational craftfleets. Otherwise, their development usually springs from speculative movements.Thus, the ordered development of nautical tourism requires an appropriate develop-ment of these infrastructures to allow the existing excess of demand to be satisfied.Hence, apart from any other considerations, the regional authorities should promotethe development of recreational ports and infrastructures in order to position thecrafts and avoid a disordered expansion of the sector.

Moreover, the possibility of having these predictions available allows the variousbusiness agents working in the nautical sector of each region to plan their activitieson the basis of the predicted volume of business. Thus, the companies who carry outtheir activity in the field of recreational sailing will have more information availableto devise their policies of production, employment, investment and renovation ofequipment.



5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 67

REFERENCES

Archer, E. (1985): Emerging environmental problems in a tourist zone: The case of barbados.Caribbean Geography, 2 (1), 45-55.

Baine, M., Howard, M., Kerr, S., Edgar, G., & Toral, V. (2007): Coastal and marine resourcemanagement in the galapagos islands and the archipelago of san andres: Issues, problemsand opportunities. Ocean & Coastal Management, 50 (3-4), 148-173.

Baines, G. B. K. (1987): Manipulation of islands and men: Sand-cay tourism in the southpacific. Ambiguous Alternative: Tourism in Small Developing Countries, , 16-24.

Beekhuis, J. V. (1981): Tourism in the caribbean: Impacts on the economic, social and naturalenvironments. Ambio, 10(6), 325-331.

Buckley, R., & Panell, J. (1992). Environmental impacts of tourism and recreation in nationalparks and conservation reserves. Ecotourism: Incorporating the Global Classroom, , 89-93.

Cerit, A. G., & Içöz, O. (2006: Tourism in marine environments: Introduction. Tourism inMarine Environments, 3 (1), 1.

Charlier, R., Haulot, A., & Veryheyden, L. R. A. (1978): COASTAL ENVIRONMENTDILEMMA - ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT VS.TOURISM., 73-77.

Favro, S., & Glamuzina, N. (2005): Contemporary problems of nautical tourism developmentin croatia. Promet - Traffic - Traffico, 17 (2), 107-112.

Hall, C. M. (2001): Trends in ocean and coastal tourism: The end of the last frontier? Ocean& Coastal Management, 44 (9-10), 601-618.

Hall, D. (2000): Sustainable tourism development and transformation in central and easterneurope. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 8 (6), 441-457.

Hall, D. R. (1998): Rural diversification in albania. GeoJournal, 46 (3), 283-287.

Hanna, N., & Wells, S. (1992): Sea sickness. Focus (Tourism Concern), 5, 4-6.

Hawkins, J. P., & Roberts, C. M. (1994): The growth of coastal tourism in the red sea: Presentand future effects on coral reefs. Ambio, 23(8), 503-508.

Horak, S., Marusic, Z., & Favro, S. (2006): Competitiveness of croatian nautical tourism.Tourism in Marine Environments, 3 (2), 145-161.

Kovačic, M., Boškovic, D., & Favro, S. (2006): Possibilities and limitations of spatial technicaland technological development of a port of nautical tourism. [Mogucnosti i organičenjaprostornoga i tehničko-tehnološkog razvoja luka nautičkoga turizma] Nase More, 53(1-2), 54-62.

Kovačic, M., Gržetic, Z., & Dundovic, C. (2006): Planning and selection of location for thenautical tourism port for sustainable development. [Planiranje i izbor lokacije za lukunautičkoga turizma u funkciji održivoga razvoja] Nase More, 53(3-4), 118-124.



5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 68

Lee, H. -. (2001): Determinants of recreational boater expenditures on trips. Tourism Man-agement, 22(6), 659-667.

Lukovic,T. (2007): Nautical tourism - definitions and dilemmas. [Nautički turizam - Defini-cije i dileme] Nase More, 54 (1-2), 22-31.

Marchand, H., & Skračic, V. (2006): The island and marine national park of kornati (croatia):A space in reprieve. [Le parc national insulaire et marin des Kornati (Croatie): Un espaceen sursis] Geographie, 178 (1521), 38-62.

Meyer-Arendt, K. J. (2002): BIBLIOGRAPHY for commentary: Recreation, tourism and sportgeography...

Miller, M. L. (1993): The rise of coastal and marine tourism. Ocean & Coastal Management,20 (3), 181-199.

Miller, M. L., & Auyong, J. (1991): Coastal zone tourism: A potent force affecting environ-ment and society. Marine Policy, 15(2), 75-99.

Milne, S. (1990): The impact of tourism development in small pacific island states: Anoverview. New Zealand Journal of Geography, 89, 16-21.

Nijkamp, P., & Verdonkschot, S. (1995): Sustainable tourism development: A case study oflesbos. Sustainable Tourism Development, , 127-158.

Pearce, D. G. (1988): The spatial structure of coastal tourism: A behavioural approach.Tourism Recreation Research, 13(2), 11-14.

Phillips, M. R., & Jones, A. L. (2006): Erosion and tourism infrastructure in the coastal zone:Problems, consequences and management. Tourism Management, 27(3), 517-524.

Smith, C., & Jenner, P. (1995): Marinas in europe. Travel Tourism Analyst, 6, 56-72.

Taïeb, G., & Verdiére, V. (1990): L’ émergence touristique. Espaces, 104, 43-48.

Wong, P. P. (1998): Coastal tourism development in southeast asia: Relevance and lessons forcoastal zone management. Ocean & Coastal Management, 38(2), 89-109.

Wrangham, R. (1999): Management or domination? planning tourism in the banda islands,eastern indonesia. International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, 11(2-3), 111-115.

Xiao, H., & Smith, S. L. J. (2006): Case studies in tourism research: A state-of-the-art analy-sis. Tourism Management, 27(5), 738-749.



5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 69

ELASTICIDAD RENTA DE LA DEMANDA DEEMBARCACIONES DE RECREO

Los modelos de demanda-renta de la náutica de recreo pueden explicar la evoluciónde la flota de recreo a partir de la evolución de la renta, para un país o región y perío-do determinados. Dichos modelos tienen la utilidad de que sus transformacioneslogarítmicas permiten obtener el valor de la elasticidad renta de la demanda deembarcaciones de recreo en dicha región. Además bajo la hipótesis de mantenimien-to del valor de dicha elasticidad, se puede determinar la variación esperada de la flotaen base a datos previstos de la renta.

El objetivo del presente trabajo es doble. Por un lado formalizar un modelo de laflota de recreo de un país o región que permitan determinar la evolución de la flotacon respecto a los cambios de renta originados en la región, tanto en términos abso-lutos como relativos. Se obtienen resultados de elasticidades-renta de la demanda deembarcaciones de recreo para las diferentes flotas de recreo de España agrupadas en7 zonas geográficas.

OBJETIVOS

El presente trabajo centra su atención en la evolución de las flotas de embarcacionesde recreo de un país o región, en relación con el comportamiento de los consumido-res o demandantes de servicios e infraestructuras de la náutica de recreo.

El objetivo del presente trabajo es doble. Por un lado formalizar un modelo de laflota de recreo de un país o región que permitan determinar la evolución de la flotacon respecto a los cambios de renta originados en la región, tanto en términos abso-lutos como relativos. Por otro, aplicar dicho modelo a la flota de recreo de un país oregión concreta.

Se pretende disponer de una herramienta que pueda ser útil tanto al sectorpúblico como al privado, en un ámbito espacial determinado. En tal sentido, el cono-cimiento de la evolución de la flota en respuesta a los cambios de la renta de unaregión supondría disponer de valores de la elasticidad renta de la demanda de embar-caciones de recreo en dicho ámbito espacial. Para un valor determinado de la elastici-dad se podría conocer la magnitud esperada de la flota ante variaciones de la rentasuponiendo el resto de variables constantes. Ello permitiría, por un lado, a la admi-nistración regional con competencias en dicho sector planificar y ordenar el sector enbase a una magnitud esperada de la flota. Por otro, orientaría a los operadores yempresas del sector sobre las estrategias a desarrollar en base a los tipos y volúmenesde negocio esperados en torno a la flota de una región determinada.



5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 70

METODOLOGÍA

La metodología se desarrolla en dos fases claramente diferenciadas. En la prime-ra se construye un modelo teórico de demanda de embarcaciones de recreo y se for-maliza el concepto de elasticidad renta de la demanda de embarcaciones de recreo:Se trata de aspectos que son utilizados como elementos de referencia en el procesode modelización empírico. En la segunda fase se formaliza el modelo econométrico,de la evolución de la flota de embarcaciones de recreo en función de la renta regional,que se utilizará en la estimación empírica.

HIPÓTESIS

Las embarcaciones de recreo son bienes de lujo por lo que su elasticidad renta debeser mayor que la unidad.

Análisis de los resultados de las estimaciones

Los resultados de la significación individual de las variables, tanto atendiendo al esta-dístico t como al Prob, muestran una alta significación de las variables, tanto en losmodelos en valor como para los logarítmicos, de todas las zonas analizadas. Las dosúnicas excepciones, que presentan menor significación, corresponden a los parámetrosα1 y α5, que son las constantes de los modelos tipo I de las zonas 1 y 5 respectivamente.

Todos los parámetros βi y λi estimados presentan signos positivos. Por tanto,todos los modelos nos indican que la flota de recreo de una zona en un período con-creto depende de la evolución del Valor añadido de la zona. En todos los casos larelación es directa, cuanto mayor sea el valor añadido (beneficios y salarios) mayorserá la flota en el futuro.

Los coeficientes λi, correspondientes a los modelos logarítmicos, son las elastici-dades. Estos valores, ordenados de mayor a menor, se agrupan en la tabla 5. Las elas-ticidades indican la variación porcentual de la flota de la zona en respuesta a unavariación porcentual del valor añadido de dicha zona. En todos los modelos la elasti-cidad es mayor que 1 lo que es consistente con la identificación de las embarcacionesde recreo con la categoría de bienes de lujo. Sin embargo, el valor de dicha elasticidadpresenta diferencias acusadas de unas zonas a otras. Como puede apreciarse la mayorrespuesta se produce en Cataluña y Baleares (1.84) y en Canarias (1,46) que son lasque presentan elasticidades superiores a la media española (1.44). El menor valor lopresenta la zona 1, ligeramente superior a la unidad (1,06).

Los resultados de la significación conjunta de los modelo tipos I y II, en sumayoría presentan altos coeficientes de determinación, tanto R-squared como elajustado con los grados de libertad (Adjusted R-squared), lo que junto con el valorelevado de la F de Snedecor permite afirmar que la significación conjunta es alta. Lospeores resultados corresponden a la zona 5 Valencia y Murcia, con R-squared de 0.76y 0.74 para los modelos tipo I y II respectivamente.



5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 71

Asimismo los valores del estadístico d de Durbin-Watson permiten rechazar laexistencia de autocorrelación con una significación del 1% en todos los casos, exceptoen dos que cae en zona de duda, los correspondientes a la zona 5 Valencia y Murcia ya la zona 7 España.

Estos modelos, para la zona 5 y especialmente para la 7, mejoran sensiblementesi se añade en la ecuación del modelo una media móvil de un período, que recoge lainfluencia que sobre el nivel de flota en un período tiene el stock preexistente. Esdecir el nivel de flota existente o el tamaño de la flota de partida. En este caso desa-parece la duda relativa a la autocorrelación e incrementa sensiblemente el R-squared(hasta 0.99 en el caso de España). Se ha preferido mantener para todas las zonas elmismo modelo por coherencia a la hora de comprar resultados y valores de elastici-dad. Y porque en cierta medida, el nivel de flota de partida puede recogerse en el tér-mino constante de la ecuación.

DISCUSIÓN Y CONCLUSIONES

Desde el punto de vista económico la náutica de recreo aglutina bienes económi-cos denominados de lujo, ya que se trata de bienes de consumo normales de demandainsatisfecha de elasticidad renta superior a la unidad. Sin embargo, al margen de talconsideración económica de carácter genérico, se pueden distinguir dos tipos depaíses o regiones dependiendo del tratamiento social y fiscal dado a dichos bienes.

Hay países o regiones que consideran la náutica de recreo como una actividad deocio que al mismo tiempo permite mantener valores y tradiciones. Por ello, apoyaninstitucionalmente la actividad de forma decidida, no consideran desde el punto devista fiscal a las embarcaciones bienes de lujo y fomentan el desarrollo de puertos derecreo. Dichos países o regiones presentarían valores altos de la elasticidad rentadebido a que pequeñas variaciones de la renta originan grandes variaciones de lademanda de embarcaciones de recreo.

En cambio otros países o regiones no apoyan institucionalmente toda la activi-dad de la náutica de recreo, aunque lo hagan parcialmente. Por ello, aunque puedenestar de acuerdo en que se trata de una actividad de ocio socialmente deseable enparte (por ejemplo la práctica de la vela y el remo), consideran que desde el punto devista fiscal las embarcaciones deben ser consideradas bienes de lujo y los puertos derecreo no deben ser fomentados desde el sector público. Dichos países o regionespresentarían valores de la elasticidad-renta algo superiores a la unidad, debido a quese necesitan grandes variaciones de la renta para que se originen grandes variacionesde la demanda de embarcaciones de recreo.

Los modelos de demanda-renta de la náutica de recreo pueden explicar la evolu-ción de la flota de recreo a partir de la evolución de la renta, para un país o región yperíodo determinados. Dichos modelos tiene la utilidad de que sus transformacioneslogarítmicas permiten obtener el valor de la elasticidad renta de la evolución de las



5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 72

embarcaciones de recreo en dicha región. Bajo la hipótesis de mantenimiento delvalor de dicha elasticidad, se puede determinar la variación de la flota esperada enbase a datos de la flota actual y datos de la renta actuales y previstos. En tal sentido,existen diversos organismos públicos y privados que elaboran previsiones sobre rentaen los países desarrollados. Con las herramientas y recursos indicados las Adminis-traciones de un país o región pueden prever la evolución de sus flotas y realizar unaplanificación de infraestructuras portuarias de acuerdo con las necesidades reales.

Los resultados obtenidos –de las elasticidades renta de la demanda de embarca-ciones de recreo- permiten afirmar que en España las embarcaciones de recreo sonconsideradas bienes de lujo. Dichos valores sitúan a España en el grupo de países enlos que las actividades de la náutica de recreo son apoyadas sólo parcialmente. Larespuesta media de la flota de recreo española ante variaciones de la renta es del144,66%, es decir, por cada un 1% de incremento de la renta nacional la demanda deembarcaciones de recreo se incrementará un 1,44%. En tal sentido, bajo la hipótesisde invariabilidad de dicha elasticidad, teniendo en cuenta un crecimiento anual de larenta nacional del 3%, las embarcaciones de recreo crecerían al 4,32%. Ello supone,de acuerdo con las cifras del censo de España (ver sección 3) un ritmo de crecimientoen torno a 13261 embarcaciones al año. Sin embargo no todas las regiones respondencon la misma elasticidad. Las regiones mediterráneas de Cataluña y Baleares (zona6) presentan los valores más altos con una respuesta del 184,46%, por lo que paraincrementos esperados de la renta del 3% las embarcaciones crecerían un 5,52%, esdecir, 6386 embarcaciones/año. En cambio las regiones del norte del País Vasco,Cantabria y Asturias (zona 1), presentan valores de la elasticidad renta de la deman-da de embarcaciones de recreo del 106,06% casi en el límite de los valores propios delos bienes de lujo. Para incrementos esperados de la renta del 3% se esperan varia-ciones similares de la flota en torno al 3,18%.

En situaciones normales, la planificación de los puertos responde al crecimientode las flotas de embarcaciones de recreo. En caso contrario su desarrollo suele origi-narse por movimientos especulativos. En tal sentido, el desarrollo ordenado del turis-mo náutico precisaría de un desarrollo suficiente de tales infraestructuras que permi-tiese satisfacer el exceso de demanda existente. Por ello, al margen de otras considera-ciones de diversa índole las autoridades regionales deberían potenciar el desarrollo depuertos e infraestructuras de recreo con el fin de ubicar las embarcaciones y evitar unaexpansión desordenada del sector.

Además la posibilidad de disponer de tales previsiones permite a los diferentesagentes empresariales del sector náutico de cada región planificar su actividad enbase al volumen de negocio previsto. En tal sentido, las empresas que desarrollan suactividad en el ámbito de la náutica de recreo podrían disponer de mayor informa-ción para establecer con menor riesgo sus políticas de producción, empleo, inversióny renovación de equipos.



5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 73

5 abril 2009.qxp 15/04/2009 20:52 PÆgina 74

demand-income elasticity of leisure boats

Documents