ABSTRACT

The objective of this project is to evaluate Technology Road-mapping for

providing appropriate high speed trains technology for Tehran-Mashed

railway in Iran. Technology Road-mapping is a comprehensive approach

to strategic management for the integration of market, R&D and

technology development into product/service and business aspects.

In this project, special consideration has been given to sustainable

development as economic, social and environmental parameters.

The point of departure was a TESP analysis of Iran's macro environment

with its structural and economic data (in Chapter 2). Taking all the given

parameters into consideration, and on the basis of the economic analysis, it

shows that Iran's macro economy is growing rapidly and is producing

increased demand for transportation that itself has considerable effect on

the economy.

The next step in the project was a comprehensive performance analysis of a

wide spectrum of transportation modes. In this step, the industry and

competitors analysis was completed to analyze rail industry in comparison

to other modes. Although rail industry has experienced increased support

from government in recent years and it has many advantages over other

modes and is known as environmentally friendly, more efficient to national

economy and more accepted by social groups, the analysis shows that rail

industry has an insufficient share of the transportation sector. There are

many reasons for that but lack of adequate infrastructures and appropriate

technologies could be the most important reason.

The technology selection process (in Chapter 5 and 6) shows that

customers want services and technologies that reduce travel time and

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increase travel quality and safety. On the other hand the government as a

specific customer is looking for those technologies that offer a more direct

and indirect contribution to national economy. By using rail customers’

and rail experts' opinions, the High Speed Train (HST) was determined to

be the service that satisfied the identified goals. On the basis of the data,

appropriate rail technologies based on existing and further technologies

were analyzed. As a result, three available technologies; Tilting trains,

Conventional HST and Maglev trains were evaluated concerning technical

and economic parameters.

The analysis found that according to Iran's railway situation a combination

of the first two alternatives could be adopted in a 20 year plan while

Maglev train (technical, economical and technological adaptation) cannot

achieve the government’s objectives in the Tehran-Mashed railway.

Finally, the research in this project suggests a significant new process,

which resulted in new tools for acquisition of disruptive technologies in rail

industry

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my gratitude to all those who gave me the possibility

to complete this work. I want to thank the Iran's Railway for giving me

opportunity to commence this project in the first instance, to do the

necessary research work and to use departmental data. I am deeply

indebted to my supervisor Prof. Dr. Ian Lee from the Sprott School of

Business of Carleton University whose help, stimulating suggestions,

valuable hints and encouragement helped me in all the time of research for

and writing of this project. Also I would like to thank Prof. Dr. Uma Kumar

from the Sprott School of Business of Carleton University whose read my

project and gave me many worthwhile comments.

Especially, I would like to give my special thanks to my wife whose patient

support enabled me to complete this work.

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"Table of Contents" P#

ABSTRACT 1

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6

CHAPTER ONE( INTRODUCTION)

Background of business 15

My case study 24

"TRM" leads to optimize providing new technology 26

Managerial Questions 28

Research Objectives 29

CHAPTER TWO(EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS)

PART A) Macro-Environment Analysis (TESP) 33

PART B) Industry Analysis 93

PART C) Competitor Analyses144

CHAPTER THREE(PROJECT DESCRIPTION)

Introduction 153

Project Description 161

The problem and Methodology 179

CHAPTER FOURTECHNOLOGY ROAD-MAPPING

(A STRATEGIC WAY FOR CHANGE)

Introduction 183

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A) Anticipating and Managing Change 184

B) Distinction of Planning Paradigms 199

C) An Overview to the Technology Road-mapping (TRM) 201

CHAPTER FIVE(TECHNOLOGY SELECTION)

Introduction 227

Preliminary Analysis to Roadmap Creation 228

Phase 1) Market Requirements, Visions and Objectives 231

Phase 2) Service-Market Analysis 239

Phase 3) Identification of Technology Alternatives 266

Phase 4) Technology Gap Analysis 293

Phase 5) Service-Technology Analysis 307

CHAPTER SIX(ROADMAP CREATION)

A) Introduction 312

B) Influence Matrix 313

C) Roadmap Creation 317

CONCLUSION 333

REFERENCES 336

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Executive Summary

Introduction

This business case represents the significant effects of different modes of

High Speed Train (HST) technology in Iranian railway system. The project

aims to assess how to structure the ongoing collaborative technological

advancement, the exploration of the opportunities and the threats over the

next twenty years. In addition it analyses how to manage the transition

towards knowledge based technology and a more sustainable rail industry.

This vision is being translated into a set of technology development

destinations and a total of distinct initiatives for targeted project.

Railway transportation has direct and indirect cost to society and may

reduce competition. By use of HST in Iranian Railway system, there are

many advantages to society, economy and environment. Also, we are going

to find out how the implementation of HST technology can improve the

competitive advantageous of the railway industry comparing to other

alternative transportation networks such as Road ways and airways in order

to provide a better and more efficient services to the customers.

Meeting tomorrow's challenges

Nowadays new generation of science and technologies help companies to

facilitate serving new product and services to satisfy customer

expectations. Despite of all opportunities, the new global market has

several threats for the firms. In addition to the new markets, new

competitors are emerging. The global competition is becoming more

intense and firms face serious challenges in order to survive. Customers in

the new global market do not accept the standardized products and they

prefer goods or services that satisfy their individual requirements.

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In addition businesses are under tremendous pressure to make tangible

productivity gains and to hold costs in check, just to stay even with their

competition. Modern companies are in a state of technological and cultural

change. Furthermore, in the next decades, technology will hold the key to

improving the quality of our lives and resolving longstanding conflicts

between economic goals and resource constraints. In response, costumer

expectations for technology have increased dramatically, placing greater

demands on the application and performance of services. Also sustainable

development is vital to provide new technologies and the triangle of

society, economy and environment are needed to evaluate simultaneously.

On the other hand the Iranian economy is entering a transitional phase. The

economy enjoyed a sustained growth, partly due to policy decisions and

extensive deregulations to enhance private sector contribution to economic

activities and partly to positive movements of crude oil prices in

international markets. Foreign trade system moved toward further

liberalization through revision in trade tariffs and granting more flexibility

to exporters in managing their exports proceeds. Also like to the global

market that the most part of world's trade has more focused on services

than products, 48.2% of Iran's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is come

from service sector. In recent years Iran has changed some traditional

approaches to make country more attractive for global economy and

particularly to increase foreign investments.

Due to implementation of structural reforms in the 3rd plan, most of

economic indicators show a better performance as compared to the

previous periods. According to positive trends of Iran's macroeconomic

criteria such as GDP and GDP/per capita the country will be faced with a

huge demand for transportation services in both of freight and passenger.

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Background of Business

To response desired demand the railway network currently operated by the

Iranian Railways Co. (RAI) that is 8565km of main track. All tracks are

standard gauge. Tehran is the hub of the railway network, which consists of

four main corridors. Although in compare to road section, rail transport

volumes are low, they are growing. In addition because of the geographic

position of the country and the long distances involved, rail transport has

considerable potential for development, and a favorable comparative

advantage (such as environmentally friendliness, lower fuel consumption,

lower fatalities, lower price,…) over road and air transport.

Although investment in the rail transport has experienced special growth in

recent years but share of rail transport from GDP is decreased. It means

governmental investment in the rail transport hasn't been effective to

improve its market share or other modes of transport growing faster.

Statistics shows that in recent years Iran has experienced around 5% by

average in its GDP and also government has spent considerable investment

on transportation sector. Moreover share of transportation sector from

country's value-added has been increased during two decades ago. So it can

be estimated that transportation sector will be facing with a huge demand in

the next years. On the other hand railway with a wide range of advantages

that mentioned before can play a strategic role in transportation section in

both of passenger and freight modes.

City of Mashed is an important religious city in the country and the second

Islamic religious city in the world. Millions of pilgrims plan to travel there

every year. Around 50% of total rail's passengers travel there. The route is

926Km and is known as long distance route. Although there are operated

many semi high speed trains with maximum 160 Km/h, but average trip

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time for the whole of route is around 12 hours. In recent years the route has

no experienced any passenger train accident and fatalities. As a technical

point of view the route is doubled track and in recent years many

substantial projects such as signaling and track's long welding are done.

Also the existence route is ready to operate trains with speed of 200Km/h.

The route (Tehran-Mashed) has a good passenger potential with around 12

million passengers at 2006 and will be expected to increase in future. In

addition rail transport has 51% of the route market share, road and air

transport with 36% and 13% are the next modes of transport respectively. It

means rail transport is the main mode of transport in the route. As a result,

it can be predicted that any rail's network development and in particular

providing high speed trains technology will be effect on the rail transport

market share.

Providing High Speed Train technology

Electrification of Iran's rail network is an essential solution for productivity

improvement and sustainable development. On the other hand high speed

railway is vital to productivity growth in transportation sector. As such, it

lies at the heart of the sustainable development and technological

transformation projected through 2025 and beyond.

Development of High Speed Trains (HST) in last decades makes it more

attractive in compare to car. Many direct and indirect advantages such as

low travel time, lower emissions and safer trip are discussed by

governments to implement new HST infrastructure around the world.

Generally, High speed rail is defined as where trains run at a maximum

speed of at least 250km/h. Capable of traveling at speeds of 250 to 350

km/h or higher, HST would offer an efficient, attractive and convenient

alternative for passengers between large urban areas for trips of up to 1000

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kilometers. HST is economically efficient and respectful of the

environment; it's a major asset in efforts to ensure sustainable development

in transport.

According to the high passenger traffic in the Tehran-Mashed route that

still is going up rapidly and also the critical capacity of the route, the RAI

is going to provide an electrified high speed railway there. Previous

feasibility study shows that the route has the most priority to implement an

electrified high speed railway. The project is mostly technology-based and

estimating around $15 billion and will be implemented in 15 years.

On the other hand, to implement of this project RAI needs to make

government more confident about the situation that will be emerged in

project's life cycle. As a result the crucial questions are:

1. Which kind of high speed railway is more efficient to implement in the

route

2. How related technologies should be chosen

3. How related departments should be involved in an integrate decision

process

In conclusion, it’s very important for RAI to know what the best plan to

implement project is. Previous experiences for the same projects show that

usually there has been a lack of integrated strategic planning to use all of

the potentials that each part of project has alone and usually there is no

synergy between departments. Furthermore in most of previous projects

providing technologies were being insufficient or over design. It means

after implementing of those projects the results will not be completely

adapted to the target strategies.

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Technology Road-mapping(TRM), Thinking Strategically

Over the last 20 years, Technology Road-mapping (TRM) has become a

popular method for strategic planning in science and technology.

Generally, a roadmap provides a consensus view or vision of the future

landscape available to decision makers. When conducted properly, a road-

mapping effort provides a way to involve critical stakeholders as well as to

identify, evaluate and select alternatives that can be used to achieve a

desired objective. It uses to integrate between firm's business strategies and

market requirements. Also by using road-mapping the R&D tasks will be

canalized to the desired visions and objectives. On the other hand the Iran's

rail industry has undertaken a bold technology planning initiative to

position itself to compete effectively in Iran's transportation market. This

business case represents technology road-mapping as a strategic tool to

respond to new market opportunities and challenges in Iran's rail industry.

The roadmap will help align the technological resources of industry and

government to meet the future demands of established and emerging

customers.

This roadmap is an initial effort to provide the critical link between the

broadly defined strategic goals and the detailed research portfolio that will

be pursued through cooperative R&D partnerships. It is meant to be a

dynamic document that is reevaluated at regular intervals to incorporate

new market and technical information and to ensure that the research

priorities remain relevant to customer needs.

Conclusion & Findings

Finally, the conclusions and findings of this business case for

implementation of TRM to provide new rail technology for Tehran-Mashed

route are as follows:

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Although there are many negative economical and political points,

but Iran's economy indicators shows that the country will be faced with

the better situation in the next decades that helps it to provide pioneer

technologies for rail transport.

In recent years the government has spent considerable investments

on rail projects that show the importance of railway transportation for

decision-makers.

To keep pace with the country's rapidly growing population, rail

transport must reach the equivalent capacity for around 100 million

people per year by 2025.

Costumers are looking for services to make their travel safer, shorter

and more convenience.

Macroeconomic goals of, technological advancement, international

competitiveness, and oil conservation would be supported by the

development and building of HST systems.

A critical priority for Tehran-Mashed railway is the development and

deployment of an advanced portfolio of related technology options;

Tilting and Conventional HST.

Providing very high tech alternatives such as Maglev trains will not

be feasible for the route as different points of view; technology

adoption, high cost, Safety, no international acceptation and so forth.

Integrated partnership of different stakeholders in the government,

industry and firm is needed to ensure that the project's roadmap will

provide the best technology for the route.

There is no necessary experience to integrate R&D tasks with the

main project's activities. Related R&D tasks should be identified as

secondary roadmap.

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Although privatization in rail transport has started for many years,

but there is no sufficient effort by government to facilitate the process of

private section's replacement.

High-speed trains and high-speed trains' network are beneficial from

a socio-economic point of view and that they probably alleviate the

major environmental disadvantages of cars and airplanes.

By using HST, technology innovation will be emerged as the

primary driver for economic growth.

The project results shows that creating a sustainable future will

require improvements in a number of areas, including economic

productivity, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction over at least the

next 20 years.

As key to energy efficiency, high speed railway will increasingly

shoulder society's burden for energy-related environmental control.