client or prospect name
TRANSCRIPT
This information was created for SDCERA and is not intended for public distribution. This information is
intended only for the entity named. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate,
distribute, alter or copy this material. This information is provided for information purposes and should not be
construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments in any
jurisdiction.
Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, 650 Newport Center Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660, 949-
720-6000
This material is to be used for one-on-one separate account presentations to institutional investors and not for
any other purpose
For Institutional Investor Use Only
1
This analysis compares risk and return characteristics of SDCERA’s current policy
portfolios, two potential variations provided by SDCERA, and a generic 70/30 index
blend
From a risk factor standpoint, portfolio options 1 and 2 do not differ greatly from the
current allocation
Portfolio option 2 does have modestly lower estimated return and risk than the
current portfolio, largely due to a reduction in EM equities and high yield bonds
The current and proposed portfolios have a higher estimated Sharpe ratio than the
70/30 index blend
As of 31 March 2017. SOURCE: SDCERA, PIMCO. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only.
3
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
U.S.
Treasuries
U.S.
IG Credit
U.S.
HY Credit
Global
Bonds
EM
External
Bonds
EM
Local
Bonds
DM
Equities
EM
Equities
Hedge
Funds
Private
Equity
Private
Real
Estate
Comm-
odities
World Equity (DM) World Equity (EM) Nominal Duration (DM)
Nominal Duration (EM) EM Sovereign Spread IG Corp Spread
HY Corp Spread Currency (DM) Currency (EM)
Commodities Idiosyncratic Risk Net Other
tail_risk_review_52
Real Assets Alternatives Equities Fixed Income
Risk Factor Contributions to Estimated Volatility (bps)2
1
SOURCE: PIMCO. As of 31 July 2016. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only.
U.S. Treasuries [Barclays US Treasury Index], U.S. IG Bonds [Barclays U.S. Credit Index], U.S. HY Bonds [Barclays U.S. High Yield Index], Global Bonds [Barclays Global Aggregate Index], EM External
Bonds [JP Morgan EMBI Global Div Index], EM Local Bonds [JP Morgan GBI-EM Global Div Index]; DM Equities [MSCI World Index], EM Equities [MSCI EM Index], Hedge Funds [HFRI Fund
Weighted Composite Index], Commodities [Bloomberg Commodity Index].
For Private Equity and Real Estate Models, risk factor exposures are based on analysis of historical index data, third party academic research and/or qualitative inputs from senior PIMCO
investment professionals.
1 Other factors include: equity style and industry, slope, liquidity, real duration, convexity, and EU sovereign spread. 2 See Appendix for additional information regarding volatility estimates.
Refer to Appendix for additional hypothetical example, index, and portfolio analysis information.
For many years, PIMCO has used a risk factor-based approach to construct portfolios and manage risks
Risk factors are fundamental building blocks which explain a majority of variation in returns across most asset classes
Risk factor approach results in a clear depiction of the overall risk drivers in a portfolio
4
Steps in block-bootstrap method:
1. Randomly select a block of factor returns from history (i.e. returns for all factors). For example, 3 month period starting 1 March 1998
2. Combine with other randomly selected blocks to create a full simulation. E.g., 4 blocks of 3 months to create a 1 year simulation
3. Calculate portfolio return by multiplying factor exposures by factor returns
4. Repeat a large number of times (e.g. 25,000 times) to create a probability distribution of returns
Block 1 Block 2 Block 3 Block 4
Simulation one year factor return (repeat 25,000 times)
Historical time series of factor returns
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Refer to Appendix for additional risk information.
5
Capital Market
Inputs
Forecast of key
market and economic
variables
Models
Empirical asset pricing
models used
to inform inputs
Global survey covering major regions
Inputs for key financial and macroeconomic variables
Structured survey with guide models
Asset class
conversion
Factor premia
converted to asset
class total return
estimates
Consistency check
Compare with
historical returns over
different periods
Portfolio Management & Analytics
Capital Market Assumptions Process
Survey
SOURCE: PIMCO. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only.
Risk factor
conversion
Inputs are converted
to risk factor premia
6
Equity Exposure
Real and Nominal
Duration
Credit Spread
Durations
FX Exposures
Equity Risk Premium
Duration Risk
Premium
Credit Risk
Premium
Foreign Exchange
Risk Premium
Global Inflation Rates,
Real Exchange Rates
Spreads, downgrade
and loss rates
Real and Nominal
Yield Curves
Dividends, Growth
and Valuation
Excess Returns
Total Returns
× =
CAPITAL MARKET INPUTS FACTOR RISK PREMIA RISK FACTOR EXPOSURES ASSUMED RETURNS
+ =
Secular Outlook
On Global
Economy
Nominal Total Return Average Return on
Cash
Excess Returns
7
4.6%
5.1%
7.3%
2.9%
2.3%
3.4%
4.1%
5.1%
5.7%
2.2%
5.0%
7.2%7.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
U.S.
equities
Developed
int'l
equities
EM
equities
U.S. core
fixed
income
Foreign
bonds
(USD-hedged)
Global IG
credit
(USD-hedged)
Global HY
credit
(USD-hedged)
EM external
bonds
REITs Diversified
commodities
Hedge
Funds
Private
Equity
Infrastructure
PIMCO's 10-year capital market assumptions1
SOURCE: PIMCO. As of 13 December 2016
1 Return estimates are based on the product of risk factor exposures and projected risk factor premia. The projections of risk factor premia rely on historical data, valuation metrics and
qualitative inputs from senior PIMCO investment professionals.
U.S. equities: S&P 500 Index; Developed int’l equities: MSCI EAFE Net Dividend Index (USD Unhedged); EM Equities: MSCI Emerging Markets Index; U.S. core fixed income: Bloomberg Barclays
U.S. Aggregate Index; Foreign bonds (USD-hedged): Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-USD Hdg USD; Global IG: Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg Credit (USD Hedged); Global HY: MLX
DevelMarkHighYieldConstr(USD Hedged); EM external bonds: JPMorgan EMBI Global Index; REITS: Dow Jones U.S. REIT Total Return Index; Diversified commodities: Bloomberg Commodity
Index Total Return. Hedge Funds: Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Funds Index; Private Equity: PIMCO Private Equity Model; Infrastructure: PIMCO Infrastructure Model.
For PIMCO Private Equity and Infrastructure Models, risk factor exposures are based on analysis of historical index data, third party academic research and/or qualitative inputs from senior
PIMCO investment professionals.
Refer to Appendix for additional investment strategy, return assumption and risk information.
Equities: Real Assets: Alternatives: Fixed Income:
8
Translating portfolio exposures from asset classes to risk factors provides a more holistic view of
the risks that sit within the portfolio
Equities
Fixed Income
Hedge Funds
Private Equity
PIMCO
proprietary
risk factor
models
Risk factor
exposures at
the portfolio
level
Portfolio risk factors
Barra equity factors
Duration (nominal and real)
Yield curve duration
Spread duration
Commodity
FX (developed, EM)
Alternative factors
Assign index
/ model
proxies
ASSET ALLOCATION
Real Assets
RISK ALLOCATION
Refer to Appendix for additional risk information.
10
As of 31 March 2017. SOURCE: SDCERA, PIMCO. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only.
1 Unless otherwise specified, return estimates are an average annual return over a 10-year horizon. For indices and asset class models, return estimates are based on the product of risk factor exposures
and projected risk factor premia. The projections of risk factor premia rely on historical data, valuation metrics and qualitative inputs from senior PIMCO investment professionals. The estimated return
for the Private Debt Model is the bottom of the 9-11% range provided by SDCERA. 2 See Appendix for additional information regarding volatility estimates.
3 Sharpe Ratio calculation: (Estimated Portfolio Return - Estimated Cash Return) / Estimated Volatility. Estimated Cash Return = 1.76% 4 Equity beta is measured against the S&P 500 Index.
5 Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVAR) is an estimate of the average expected loss at a desired level of significance.
6 Model risk factor exposures are based on analysis of historical index data, third party academic research and/or qualitative inputs from senior PIMCO investment professionals.
ProxyEstimated
Return1
Estimated
Volatility2
SDCERA
Current
Portfolio
Portfolio
Option 1
Portfolio
Option 2
70/30
Benchmark
MSCI ACWI Index 5.1% 16.7% 4.1% 7.7% 5.6% 70.0%
S&P 500 Index 4.6% 14.9% 18.0% 14.5% 21.0% -
MSCI EAFE Index 5.1% 19.9% 14.5% 15.6% 15.6% -
MSCI Emerging Markets Index 7.3% 25.9% 9.9% 9.5% 5.2% -
BB Barclays Intermediate Aggregate Index 2.7% 2.7% 14.4% 14.4% 15.3% 30.0%
BofAML US High Yield Index 4.2% 10.0% 6.1% 5.6% 4.7% -
BofAML 3Mo US T-Bill Index 1.8% 0.2% 4.0% 4.1% 4.7% -
DJCS Managed Futures Index 5.3% 11.5% 6.3% 6.1% 5.9% -
Private Core Real Estate Model 6.1% 14.0% 8.4% 8.9% 8.5% -
Private Equity Model 7.2% 23.1% 6.6% 6.3% 6.3% -
Private Debt Model 9.0% 8.5% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% -
Private Infrastructure Model 7.5% 18.3% 6.6% 6.3% 6.3% -
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
PORTFOLIO CHARACTERISTICS
Estimated Return1 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.4%
Estimated Volatility2 11.9% 12.0% 11.5% 11.5%
Sharpe Ratio3 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.23
Equity Beta4 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.72
Duration 1.29 1.27 1.27 1.18
CVaR (95%)5 24.5% 24.8% 23.7% 23.5%
Equities
Fixed Income
Alternatives
6
6
6
6
11
As of 31 March 2017. SOURCE: SDCERA, PIMCO. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only.
The correlation of various risk factors against one another or against inflation is based upon data over a certain time period. These correlations may vary substantially in the future or over different
time periods that can result in greater volatility.
ESTIMATED CORRELATIONS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 MSCI ACWI Index 1
2 S&P 500 Index 0.94 1
3 MSCI EAFE Index 0.96 0.82 1
4 MSCI Emerging Markets Index 0.83 0.64 0.82 1
5 BB Barclays Intermediate Aggregate Index -0.23 -0.22 -0.23 -0.17 1
6 BofAML US High Yield Index 0.67 0.60 0.63 0.60 0.10 1
7 BofAML 3Mo US T-Bill Index -0.47 -0.43 -0.47 -0.36 0.80 -0.27 1
8 DJCS Managed Futures Index -0.13 -0.08 -0.14 -0.16 0.09 -0.15 0.22 1
9 Private Core Real Estate Model 0.71 0.69 0.65 0.59 0.01 0.61 -0.25 -0.04 1
10 Private Equity Model 0.92 0.93 0.82 0.71 -0.23 0.69 -0.45 -0.11 0.80 1
11 Private Debt Model 0.63 0.56 0.61 0.55 0.08 0.87 -0.30 -0.18 0.58 0.62 1
12 Private Infrastructure Model 0.88 0.89 0.79 0.69 -0.09 0.74 -0.38 -0.11 0.85 0.98 0.66 1
12
As of 31 March 2017. SOURCE: SDCERA, PIMCO. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only.
1 Unless otherwise specified, return estimates are an average annual return over a 10-year horizon. For indices and asset class models, return estimates are based on the product of risk factor exposures
and projected risk factor premia. The projections of risk factor premia rely on historical data, valuation metrics and qualitative inputs from senior PIMCO investment professionals. The estimated return
for the Private Debt Model is the bottom of the 9-11% range provided by SDCERA. 2 See Appendix for additional information regarding volatility estimates.
3 Sharpe Ratio calculation: (Estimated Portfolio Return - Estimated Cash Return) / Estimated Volatility. Estimated Cash Return = 1.76% 4 Equity beta is measured against the S&P 500 Index.
5 Other factors include slope, EM sovereign spread and FX carry factors.
5
SDCERA Current Portfolio Portfolio Option 1 Portfolio Option 2 70/30 Benchmarkx
Factor
Weights
Vol. Contrib.
(bps)2
Factor
Weights
Vol. Contrib.
(bps)2
Factor
Weights
Vol. Contrib.
(bps)2
Factor
Weights
Vol. Contrib.
(bps)2
Equity Factors
World Equity (U.S.) 0.39 607 0.38 576 0.43 663 0.37 569
World Equity (Dev ex-U.S.) 0.15 237 0.18 272 0.17 262 0.24 385
World Equity (EM) 0.11 183 0.11 186 0.07 108 0.09 147
Equity Style and Industry -7 -4 -18 -37
Interest Rate Factors (years)
Nominal Duration (DM) 1.05 -32 1.02 -31 1.02 -31 1.18 -36
Real Duration 0.24 0 0.26 0 0.24 0 0.00 0
Spread Duration Factors (years)
Mtge Spread 0.24 8 0.24 8 0.25 8 0.45 9
Corp IG Spread 0.18 8 0.17 8 0.18 8 0.29 13
Corp HY Spread 0.30 69 0.28 64 0.25 56 0.00 0
Other Factors
Idiosyncratic 6 6 6 0
Trend Following -13 -13 -12 0
Liquidity Factor 0.10 32 0.10 31 0.10 30 0.00 0
DM Currency 0.15 39 0.17 46 0.17 42 0.24 68
EM Currency 0.11 46 0.11 46 0.07 25 0.09 34
Other Factors 5 6 4 1
Portfolio Statistics
Estimated Return1 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.4%
Estimated Volatility2 11.9% 12.0% 11.5% 11.5%
Sharpe Ratio3 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.23
Equity Beta4 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.72
13
1,188 1,202 1,152 1,151
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Contribution to Estimated Volatility (bps)1Other Factors
Idiosyncratic
Liquidity Factors
Trend Following
Currency
Mtge Spread
Corp HY Spread
Corp IG Spread
Nominal Duration (DM)
Equity Industry & Style
FactorsWorld Equity (EM)
World Equity (DM)
As of 31 March 2017. SOURCE: SDCERA, PIMCO. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. 1 See Appendix for additional information regarding volatility estimates.
2 Other factors include slope, EM sovereign spread and FX carry factors.
2
SDCERA Current Portfolio Portfolio Option 1 Portfolio Option 2 70/30 Benchmark
14
Distribution of Returns
SDCERA Portfolio Options
-52% -33% -14% 5% 24% 43%
Pro
bab
ility
Densi
ty
Estimated Return1
SDCERA Current Portfolio
Portfolio Option 1
Portfolio Option 2
As of 31 March 2017. SOURCE: SDCERA, PIMCO. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. 1 Unless otherwise specified, return estimates are an average annual return over a 10-year horizon. For indices and asset class models, year return estimates are based on the product of risk factor
exposures and projected risk factor premia. The projections of risk factor premia rely on historical data, valuation metrics and qualitative inputs from senior PIMCO investment professionals. See Appendix for additional information regarding volatility estimates.
15
Turbulent regime analysis is a way of stressing the covariance matrix, i.e. both risk factor volatilities and correlations. Note that we do
not adjust the estimated returns in the turbulent regime analysis.
-70% -53% -35% -18% 0% 18% 35% 53% 70%
Pro
bab
ility
Densi
ty
Estimated Return1
SDCERA Current Portfolio
Portfolio Option 1
Portfolio Option 2
Note that left and right
tails are much wider
than the full sample
As of 31 March 2017. SOURCE: SDCERA, PIMCO. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. 1 Unless otherwise specified, return estimates are an average annual return over a 10-year horizon. For indices and asset class models, year return estimates are based on the product of risk factor
exposures and projected risk factor premia. The projections of risk factor premia rely on historical data, valuation metrics and qualitative inputs from senior PIMCO investment professionals. See Appendix for additional information regarding volatility estimates. We define the turbulent regime as the 15% most turbulent periods which are identified from the joint behavior of our risk factors.
Distribution of Returns
SDCERA Portfolio Options
16
-25% -15% -6% 4% 13% 23% 33%
Pro
bab
ility
Densi
ty
Estimated Return1
SDCERA Current Portfolio
Portfolio Option 1
Portfolio Option 2
Note that left and right
tails are much narrower
than the full sample
As of 31 March 2017. SOURCE: SDCERA, PIMCO. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. 1 Unless otherwise specified, return estimates are an average annual return over a 10-year horizon. For indices and asset class models, year return estimates are based on the product of risk factor
exposures and projected risk factor premia. The projections of risk factor premia rely on historical data, valuation metrics and qualitative inputs from senior PIMCO investment professionals. See Appendix for additional information regarding volatility estimates. We define the turbulent regime as the 15% most turbulent periods which are identified from the joint behavior of our risk factors.
Quiet regime is comprised of all periods which are not included within the turbulent regime. Note that we do not adjust the estimated
returns in the quiet regime analysis.
Distribution of Returns
SDCERA Portfolio Options
17
-70% -53% -35% -18% 0% 18% 35% 53% 70%
Pro
bab
ility
Densi
ty
Estimated Return1
Current: Quiet
Option 1: Quiet
Option 2: Quiet
Current: Full Sample
Option 1: Full Sample
Option 2: Full Sample
Current: Turbulent
Option 1: Turbulent
Option 2: Turbulent
Quiet regime
Full Sample
Turbulent regime
Distribution of Returns
SDCERA Portfolio Options
As of 31 March 2017. SOURCE: SDCERA, PIMCO. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. 1 Unless otherwise specified, return estimates are an average annual return over a 10-year horizon. For indices and asset class models, year return estimates are based on the product of risk factor
exposures and projected risk factor premia. The projections of risk factor premia rely on historical data, valuation metrics and qualitative inputs from senior PIMCO investment professionals. See Appendix for additional information regarding volatility estimates. We define the turbulent regime as the 15% most turbulent periods which are identified from the joint behavior of our risk factors.
18
Quiet regime
Full Sample
Turbulent regime
-70% -53% -35% -18% 0% 18% 35% 53% 70%
Pro
bab
ility
Densi
ty
Estimated Return1
Option 1: Quiet
Option 1: Full Sample
Option 1: Turbulent
As of 31 March 2017. SOURCE: SDCERA, PIMCO. Hypothetical example for illustrative purposes only. 1 Unless otherwise specified, return estimates are an average annual return over a 10-year horizon. For indices and asset class models, year return estimates are based on the product of risk factor
exposures and projected risk factor premia. The projections of risk factor premia rely on historical data, valuation metrics and qualitative inputs from senior PIMCO investment professionals. See Appendix for additional information regarding volatility estimates. We define the turbulent regime as the 15% most turbulent periods which are identified from the joint behavior of our risk factors.
Distribution of Returns
SDCERA Portfolio Option 1
20
PIMCO employs highly granular holdings-based models to generate risk factor exposures. In our analysis, we may display aggregated risk factor data for ease of
interpretation, but the granularity of the underlying models is maintained. For Alternatives/Illiquids and in selected cases where holdings information is unavailable
or unreliable, PIMCO may use returns-based regression models to generate risk factor exposures.
EQUITY
Equity risk factors are based on the MSCI Barra Global Equity Model (GEM3). The exposure to each equity country or industry factor is the market value weight
of stocks categorized in that country or industry. Style factors (such as size, value, and momentum) are standardized to have a mean of 0 and a standard
deviation of 1. Please refer to Barra GEM3 documentation for more details.
PIMCO disaggregates the Barra world equity factor into additive country exposures. Thus, the risk contribution from a certain country’s equity exposure includes
contributions from both the world equity factor and the country equity factor in the original Barra model.
INTEREST RATE DURATION
Measured in years, interest rate duration is the price sensitivity to a change in interest rates (e.g. the price of a bond with a duration of 5 years will fall by
approximately 5% if interest rates instantaneously rise by 1%).
PIMCO calculates both real and nominal durations – sensitivities to real and nominal interest rates, respectively – as well as duration exposures to interest rates
in different currencies.
The duration risk factor exposure measures a security's price sensitivity to a parallel shock of the par yield curve. PIMCO’s systems use a scenario-based duration
calculation by re-pricing securities under different rate shock scenarios. For securities with embedded options, effective duration is estimated by taking into
account the potential impact of yield changes on future cash flows.
SLOPE DURATION
Interest rate duration reflects sensitivity to a parallel shift of the yield curve. However, parallel shifts rarely occur; the yield curve typically steepens or flattens as
interest rates move.
Measured in years, slope duration is the price sensitivity to steepening or flattening of the yield curve. PIMCO employs a 2-10 slope factor, which reflects
sensitivity to the slope of the front end of the par yield curve, and a 10-30 slope factor, which reflects sensitivity to the slope of the long end of the par yield
curve.
The 2-10 slope risk factor exposure measures the sensitivity to a steepening or flattening of the 2-year yield relative to the 10-year yield (e.g. the price of a bond
with a 2-10 slope duration of 3 years will increase by approximately 3% if the difference between 10-year and 2-year yields widens by 1% while the 10-year yield
remains constant).
21
The 10-30 slope risk factor exposure measures the sensitivity to a steepening or flattening of the 30-year yield relative to the 10-year yield (e.g. the price of a
bond with a 10-30 slope duration of 6 years will increase by approximately 6% if the difference between 30-year and 10-year yields narrows by 1% while the 10-
year yield remains constant)
SPREAD DURATION
Measured in years, spread duration is the price sensitivity to a change in spread.
For investment grade corporate spreads, PIMCO measures credit spread duration relative to a common reference set of securities, in order to normalize spread
duration exposures across securities with different risk levels. Credit spread duration is estimated in two steps:
1. Calculate the sensitivity of the security’s price to its own spread. This process occurs overnight and leverages PIMCO’s proprietary pricing models.
2. Translate this sensitivity into spread duration relative to a reference spread using a proprietary model. This process utilizes the security’s OAS and the OAS
of the reference set of securities as well as the term structure of spreads.
For spreads other than investment grade corporates, PIMCO calculates spread duration for a security based on the price sensitivity to a change in its own
spread. These spread duration measures include, for example, high yield corporate, mortgage, and emerging markets.
CURRENCY
Currency risk factors capture a portfolio’s percent exposure to any currency other than the base currency.
COMMODITY
Commodity risk factor exposures are measured in percentage weights.
PIMCO decomposes commodity exposure to specific commodity sub-baskets such as energy, precious metal, and livestock.
ALTERNATIVES/ILLIQUIDS
Risk factor exposures in this category are regression-based measures of the sensitivity of a portfolio to changes in risk factors that are relevant to alternative
strategies or illiquid assets, such as volatility, liquidity, and trend-following.
IDIOSYNCRATIC
Idiosyncratic risk is generally asset-specific and accounts for volatility that is not attributable to broad market factors.
In analyses involving PIMCO strategies, idiosyncratic risk describes non-factor risk and may account for the potential overlap of idiosyncratic risk across PIMCO
strategies. In these instances, idiosyncratic risk will account for 1) common sources of non-factor risks between PIMCO strategies and 2) residual idiosyncratic
risk (which may account for residual correlation between PIMCO strategies).
22 !mk_Solutions_Corp_Cash_Mgmt_body
PERFORMANCE AND FEE
Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. Certain performance figures do not reflect the deduction of investment advisory fees (for Pacific Investment Management
Company LLC described in Part 2 of its Form ADV) in the case of both separate investment accounts and mutual funds; but they do reflect commissions, other expenses (except custody), and
reinvestment of earnings. Such fees that a client may incur in the management of their investment advisory account may reduce the client's return. For example, over a five-year period, annual advisory
fees of 0.425% would reduce compounding at 10% annually from 61.05% before fees to 57.96% after fees. The “net of fees’ performance figures reflect the deduction of actual investment advisory fees
but do not reflect the deduction of custodial fees. All periods longer than one year are annualized. Separate account clients may elect to include PIMCO sector funds in their portfolio; sector funds may
be subject to additional terms and fees. For a copy of net of fees performance, unless included otherwise, please contact your PIMCO representative.
HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLE
No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those shown. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have
several inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual performance and are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. There are frequently
sharp differences between simulated performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular account, product, or strategy. In addition, since trades have not actually been
executed, simulated results cannot account for the impact of certain market risks such as lack of liquidity. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or the implementation of any
specific investment strategy, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of simulated results and all of which can adversely affect actual results.
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for a long-term especially during periods of downturn
in the market. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those shown.
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
The portfolio analysis is based on indices and models. No representation is being made that the structure of the average portfolio or any account will remain the same or that similar returns will be
achieved. The analysis may not be attained and should not be construed as the only possibilities that exist. Real results will vary and are subject to change with market conditions. Different weightings in
the asset allocation illustration will produce different results. Actual results will vary and are subject to change with market conditions. There is no guarantee that results will be achieved. No fees or
expenses were included in the estimated results and distribution. The scenarios assume a set of assumptions that may, individually or collectively, not develop over time. The sample analysis reflected in
this information is based upon data at time of analysis. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment
advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.
PIMCO routinely reviews, modifies, and adds risk factors to its proprietary models. Due to the dynamic nature of factors affecting markets, there is no guarantee that simulations will capture all relevant
risk factors or that the implementation of any resulting solutions will protect against loss. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Simulated risk analysis contains inherent limitations and is
generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. Realized losses may be larger than predicted by a given model due to additional factors that cannot be accurately forecasted or incorporated into a
model based on historical or assumed data.
RETURN ASSUMPTION
Return assumptions are for illustrative purposes only and are not a prediction or a projection of return. Return assumption is an estimate of what investments may earn on average over a ten year
horizon, unless otherwise specified. Actual returns may be higher or lower than those shown and may vary substantially over shorter time periods.
23
RISK
Investing in the bond market is subject to certain risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit and inflation risk; investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed.
Currency rates may fluctuate significantly over short periods of time and may reduce the returns of a portfolio. Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic and
industry conditions. Inflation-linked bonds (ILBs) issued by the various governments around the world are fixed-income securities whose principal value is periodically adjusted according to the rate of
inflation. Repayment upon maturity of the original principal as adjusted for inflation is guaranteed by the government that issues them. Neither the current market value of inflation-indexed bonds nor
the value a portfolio that invests in ILBs is guaranteed, and either or both may fluctuate. ILBs decline in value when real interest rates rise. In certain interest rate environments, such as when real interest
rates are rising faster than nominal interest rates, ILBs may experience greater losses than other fixed income securities with similar durations. Sovereign securities are generally backed by the issuing
government. Obligations of U.S. government agencies and authorities are supported by varying degrees, but are generally not backed by the full faith of the U.S. government. Portfolios that invest in such
securities are not guaranteed and will fluctuate in value. High yield, lower-rated securities involve greater risk than higher-rated securities; portfolios that invest in them may be subject to greater levels
of credit and liquidity risk than portfolios that do not. Derivatives and commodity-linked derivatives may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity, interest rate, market, credit, management and
the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous. Commodity-linked derivative instruments may involve additional costs and risks such as changes in commodity index volatility or
factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments. Investing in
derivatives could lose more than the amount invested. Investing in foreign denominated and/or domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and
political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. Commodities contain heightened risk including market, political, regulatory, and natural conditions, and may not be suitable for all investors.
Mortgage and asset-backed securities may be sensitive to changes in interest rates, subject to early repayment risk, and while generally supported by a government, government-agency or private
guarantor there is no assurance that the guarantor will meet its obligations. Bank loans are often less liquid than other types of debt instruments and general market and financial conditions may affect
the prepayment of bank loans, as such the prepayments cannot be predicted with accuracy. There is no assurance that the liquidation of any collateral from a secured bank loan would satisfy the
borrower’s obligation, or that such collateral could be liquidated. Corporate debt securities are subject to the risk of the issuer’s inability to meet principal and interest payments on the obligation and
may also be subject to price volatility due to factors such as interest rate sensitivity, market perception of the creditworthiness of the issuer and general market liquidity. Investing in distressed loans and
bankrupt companies are speculative and the repayment of default obligations contains significant uncertainties.
VAR/CVAR
Value at Risk (VAR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVAR) estimate the risk of loss of an investment or portfolio over a given time period under normal market conditions in terms of an average of loss
after a specific percentile threshold of loss (i.e., for a given threshold of X%, under the specific modeling assumptions used, the portfolio will incur an average loss in excess of the VAR/CVAR X percent of
the time. Different VAR/CVAR calculation methodologies may be used. VAR/CVAR models can help understand what future return or loss profiles might be. However, the effectiveness of a VAR/CVAR
calculation is in fact constrained by its limited assumptions (for example, assumptions may involve, among other things, probability distributions, historical return modeling, factor selection, risk factor
correlation, simulation methodologies). It is important that investors understand the nature of these limitations when relying upon VAR/CVAR analyses.
VOLATILITY (ESTIMATED)
We employed a block bootstrap methodology to calculate volatilities. We start by computing historical factor returns that underlie each asset class proxy from January 1997 through the present date. We
then draw a set of 12 monthly returns within the dataset to come up with an annual return number. This process is repeated 25,000 times to have a return series with 25,000 annualized returns. The
standard deviation of these annual returns is used to model the volatility for each factor. We then use the same return series for each factor to compute covariance between factors. Finally, volatility of
each asset class proxy is calculated as the sum of variances and covariance of factors that underlie that particular proxy. For each asset class, index, or strategy proxy, we will look at either a point in time
estimate or historical average of factor exposures in order to determine the total volatility. Please contact your PIMCO representative for more details on how specific proxy factor exposures are
estimated.
This material contains the current opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be
considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index. Information contained herein
has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written
permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, 650 Newport Center Drive,
Newport Beach, CA 92660, 800-387-4626. ©2017, PIMCO
It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.
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