backcasting pathways to sustainable intensification of agriculture
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The “known unknowns”
The “unknown unknowns”
Futures study approaches
Futures study approaches
present
past Short-term
mid-term
Long-term
Uncertainty
Certainty
Backcasting
Scenario planning
Forecasting
Limitations of forecasting & exploratory scenarios
• Reliability only in the short-term (De Laat, 1998; Berkhout et al., 2002)
• Extrapolation of historical trends (Quist, 2007)
• Extrapolation not always possible due to complexity & data constraints (e.g., climate change drivers (IPCC, 2007)
• Generate relatively surprise-free futures (Sondeijker et al., 2006)
• Scenarios not more than statistical predictions of end state descriptions (Schoemaker, 1993)
• Reliance on dominant trends, breaking trends
(Dreborg, 1996)
Why Backcasting?• Address long-term complex problems &
sustainability solutions (Quist, 2007)
• Account for dominant human perceptions on change (Robinson, 1988).
• Desirable versus undesirable futures (Robinson, 1990)
• Persisting trends part of the problem, especially breaking trends (Dreborg, 1996)
• Provide a long-term time horizon to define priority problems & priority policy actions (approx. 50 yrs)
• Adopt an integrated & systems approach to develop a whole systems change (Quist, 2007)
Adapt to uncertaintiesAdaptive Management through social learning (Pahl-Wostl et al., 2007)
The BackCasting Adaptive Management methodology
Combining Backcasting & Adaptive Management (van der Voorn et. al., 2012)
Methodological complementarity
• BC provides a long time horizon for goal fulfilment
• AM secures adaptive capacity
A systematic approach for adaptive & reflexive policy making:
• To cope with different types of uncertainties
• Learn from outcomes of previous management actions
The BackCasting Adaptive Management methodology
Relevance of stakeholder involvement: (Pahl-Wostl, 2002; Pahl-Wostl et al., 2007; Jacobson et al., 2009):
• Broadening the scope of contributions to goal-setting
• Experimental use of conceptual models & decision-making support tools
• Stakeholder engagement in data interpretation & model development
• Learn from & adapt to (un)intentional management outcomes reflexively
• Feedback loops to new policy cycle
The BackCasting Adaptive Management methodology
Combining Backcasting & Adaptive Management (van der Voorn et. al., 2012)
Step 1: Strategic problem orientation
12
Baseline assessment of current state
tnow tfuture
Step 1: Strategic problem orientation
13
tnow tfuture
Develop & simulate (context) scenarios
population
economicgrowth
urbanisation
A systems approach
System Dynamics modelling: Threshold 21 Model
System Dynamics modelling: T21 Model
System Dynamics modelling: T21 Model
UN DESA study on Global Food and Nutrition for the UN World Economic Social Survey 2013 (Pedercini & van der Voorn 2013)
Research questions:
• How much would agriculture production need to increase to meet food requirements, assuming a general shift towards more sustainable diets?
• How much would agriculture production need to increase to meet food requirements, assuming a reduction in food loss and waste?
System Dynamics modelling: T21 Model
System Dynamics modelling: T21 Model
System Dynamics modelling: T21 Model
System Dynamics modelling: T21 Model
STEP 2: Visioning22
Formulate Shared Future
Shared future vision
Present
Thinking the unthinkable: “Aging Barbie”
Frontrunners
Sense of urgency
STEP 3: Goal setting26
Work Backwards and Identify goals & milestones
Shared future vision
Present
MilestoneGoal
Decision tree modeling
Envisionedoutcome
STEP 4a: Backcasting analysis (single vision)
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Work Backwards and Identify goals & measures
Shared future vision
Present
MeasuresGoal
Backcasting: op weg vanuit een gedeelde toekomstSETP 4b: Backcasting analysis
(multiple visions)
Present
future vision 1
future vision 2
future vision 3
Present
future vision 1
future vision 2
future vision 3
Measure
Identical timeframesVariable timeframes
STEP 5 & 6: Implementation, evaluation & monitoring
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Desirable Future
Assess Risks and Opportunities
Present
Measure Impact of measure
Backcasting: op weg vanuit een gedeelde toekomstPathway analysis
Present
PresentShared future vision
Present
Policy theme 2
Policy theme 1
Policy
theme 3
Measure
Multi-case study research on climate change adaptation planning
Three cases on vision and strategy development for climate change adaptation planning:
• The South African Breede–Overberg Catchment Management Strategy
• The New Orleans Horizon Initiative Water Management Strategy
• The Rhine-Meuse Estuary sub-programme of the Dutch Delta Programme in the Netherlands.
Common characteristics:
• Historically vulnerable deltaic or coastal regions • Major cities and a high level of economic activity• Long tradition of technocratic management paradigm in water resources management.
Comparing backcasting studies
Framework for comparison (van der Voorn et. al., submitted)
Major insights & conclusions
Major insights (van der Voorn et al., submitted):
• broad stakeholder engagement key to stimulate vision & pathway development and endorsement
• The involvement of marginal groups requires major capacity building effort
• Institutional embedding of results for impacts
• Presence of a commissioning agency
• Manage stakeholder processes
• Provide institutional protection for follow-up activities and broader spin-off, including resource allocation
Major insights & conclusions
Major conclusions (van der Voorn et al., submitted):
• single, shared future vision not a prerequisite for vision and pathway development & endorsement
• broad stakeholder engagement supports strategy development, yet involvement of marginal groups is difficult
• multiple pathways and robust elements do not constrain endorsement of the outcomes
• more institutional embeddness of participatory processes leads to better implementation of the outcomes of these processes.
Thank you for your attention!
“The distinction between the past, present and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion” (Albert Einstein)
Recommended literature
Voorn, van der, T., Quist, J., Pahl-Wostl, C., (submitted). A conceptual framework for analysing the role of visions and paradigms in transitions in water resources management.
Voorn, van der, T., Quist, J., Pahl-Wostl, C., Haasnoot, M., (submitted). Envisioning robust climate adaptation futures for coastal regions: A comparative evaluation of cases in three continents.
Pedercini, M and van der Voorn, T., (2013). Global food and nutrition scenarios, a background paper prepared for the World Economic and Social Survey 2013.
UN World Economic and Social Survey 2013. Sustainable Development Challenges. United Nations publication. E/2013/50/Rev. 1. ST/ESA/344. http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wess/wess_current/wess2013/WESS2013.pdf
van der Voorn, T. , (2012). Future prospects for adaptive water resources: In: Marleen Wynants, Goedele Nuyttens (Eds.), Bridges over Troubled Water, CROSSTALKS book. ISBN: 9789070289287.
van der Voorn,T., Pahl-Wostl, C., Quist, J., (2012). Combining backcasting and adaptive management for climate adaptation in coastal regions: a methodology and a South African case study. Journal of Futures. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.11.003.