agency in the three tomorrows: innovation and sustainability in postnormal times
TRANSCRIPT
Agency in the Three Tomorrows: Sustainability and Innovation
in Postnormal Times
NISTEP 5th International Conference on Foresight February 13, 2014
John A. Sweeney Deputy Director, The Center for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies
Researcher, Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies
What is the postnormal?
Complexity Chaos Contradictions
These are all of the vested interests and areas of critical concern for political stability in Afghanistan.
Complexity.
The 2008 financial crisis cost $22 trillion…and counting.
Chaos.
The richest 85 people in the world own as much wealth as the bottom half (3.5 billion).
Contradictions.
Postnormal Times
ContradictionsChaos
Complexity
It took 16 years to reach one billion smartphones (1996-2012). The next billion is expected to take three years…or less.
Accelerating Change.
Persistent and uncontrollable leaks have pushed the cleanup of radioactive water emanating from Fukushima into unknown territory.
Uncertainty.
Unc
erta
inty
Accelerating Change
ContradictionsChaos
Complexity
Postnormal Times
62 years of global warming in 13 seconds
This is global weirding.
What does this mean for tomorrow?
Two TomorrowsThe Three Tomorrows
The Extended Present (the next 10 years)
The Familiar Future(s)? (10-25 years ahead)
The Unthought Future(s)? (25 years and beyond)
Unc
erta
inty
Accelerating Change
Extended Present
Familiar Future(s)
Unthought Future(s)?
Three Tomorrows
Agency.
Sustainability and Innovation in Postnormal Times
KAIST JEROS (a.k.a. Jellyfish Terminators)
Boran Slat
Russ George
“We need not only imagination but an ethical imagination that can acknowledge the uncertainty and risks we face and work through complexity and diversity cherishing the virtues we are most in need of: humility, modesty and accountability. It is our best hope of taking responsibility for the choices we will have to make to ensure we can arrive at our imagined futures with our humanity and our planet in tact.” - Zia Sardar
ありがとうございます!
Mahalo nui loa! Thank you!