diversity of land use trajectories and implications for redd+
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TRANSCRIPT
Daniel Müller
Diversity of Land-Use Trajectories and Implications for REDD+
COP18 (29 November 2012)
© Mertz
1. Understanding drivers2. Regime shifts in land use3. Implications for FRL4. Key messages
Contents
Distant Drivers - Local Impacts
• Land-use change and resulting emissions take place at local level
• Success of REDD+ manifests locally
• Underlying drivers for land-use change often originate at national or global levels
• Similar drivers can lead to grossly different local land-use outcomes
→ Understanding local responses to underlying drivers is paramount for REDD+
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Importance of Causal Understanding
• Decide on what to monitor• Prioritize actions and policies• Adjust BAU baselines for national circumstances
(beyond historic developments)• Anticipate future developments
→ A causal understanding of drivers of land-use change is fundamental to develop forest reference levels→ Prerequisite to move beyond Tier-1
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Empirical example:
Causes and Processes of Land-Use Change in Southeast Asia
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Data Collections• Several villages per country– China (Xishuangbanna), Laos (Houaphan),
Indonesia (Kutai Barat), Vietnam (Nghe An)
• Qualitative and quantitative dataon land use, socioeconomics and forest carbon– Participatory mapping and satellite analysis– Surveys, focus groups, direct observations
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Processesof land-use
changeare very diverse
Vietnam (Nghe An)
Laos (Houaphan) Indonesia (Kutai Barat)
Rubber plantation Selective logging
Shifting cultivation
Oil palm expansion
China (Xishuangbanna)
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Village land-use
trajectories (1990-2012)
Shifting cultivation, forest degradation Oil palm expansion,
deforestation
China (Xishuangbanna) Vietnam (Nghe An)
Laos (Houaphan) Indonesia (Kutai Barat)
Source: Data from I-REDD+
fieldwork in 2-3 villages per country
Fast increase of rubber plantations End of shifting cultivation,
forest plantation, forest degradation,
Different historic
and future dynamics
Rapid past change, now stable Off-farm work,
selective logging
Gradual past change, plantation crops
start emerging
More oil palm expansion,
future of shifting cultivation unclear
Vietnam (Nghe An)
Laos (Houaphan) Indonesia (Kutai Barat)
China (Xishuangbanna)
Land-Use Trajectories in Southeast Asia
• Shifting cultivation dominated land-use patterns across Southeast Asia in the past
• Land-use pathways diverged in last two decades– Rapid deforestation in Indonesia
– Forest degradation dominates in mainland Southeast Asia
– Dynamic development of cash cropping in China and Indonesia
– Gradual change in Vietnam and Laos
Change often non-linear and rapid
Underlying drivers are similar, but result in contrasting land-use outcomes
Regime Shifts in Land Use
Stable land-use regimes
Stable land-use regimes
Regime Shifts in Land Use
Periods of rapid change
Regime Shifts in Land Use
Stable land-use regimes
Periods of rapid change
Thresholds
Regime Shifts in Land Use
Thresholds
Regime Shifts in Land Use - 1985
Regime Shifts in Land Use - 2012
Regime Shifts in Land Use - 2020
Diversity in Land-Use Trajectories
• Land-use changes are not always smooth and gradual
• Similar underlying drivers may result in very different land-use trajectories
• Regime shifts are difficult to anticipate; thresholds are often unknown
• Reversal of regime shifts is difficult
REDD+ needs to guide land use towards desirable regimes, or avoid undesired regime shifts
Consequences for Developing Forest Reference Levels
Anticipating future BAU is necessary to ensure additionality of carbon payments
• Historic changes are not necessarily best predictors for future change
• Inclusion of regime shifts in future BAU challenging
• Historical commitment (reference) period may or may not include the period of rapid change
Angelsen 2008
Take-Home Messages
• Definition of BAU baseline remains key challenge – Particularly in complex landscapes
• Effects of underlying drivers (e.g., commodity prices, policies) difficult to anticipate– Effects are often non-linear, rapid and surprising
• Important to identify thresholds of future regime shifts– Surpassing thresholds may alter land-use regimes
• Low opportunity costs in regimes with low land rents may provide window of opportunity for REDD+ – Opportunity costs likely rise over time
Thank you.
Acknowledgements:
Zhanli Sun (IAMO)
Ole Mertz (Uni Copenhagen)
Other I-REDD+ collaborators
Contact:
Daniel Müller
www.iamo.de
www.geographie.hu-berlin.de
www.hu-berlin.de/~muelleda