Schertz-Cibolo-Universal City ISD

District

Demographics

Update 1Q 2018

Solutions Through Demographics

2

GREATER SAN ANTONIO

SCHOOL DISTRICTS:

2017-18 TOTAL ENROLLMENT

© School District StrategiesSource: TEA

District

Total PK-12

Enrollment

2017/18

1 Northside 106,700

2 North East 66,101

3 San Antonio 50,683

4 Judson 23,118

5 Comal 23,105

6 Schertz-Cibolo-U.C. 15,614

7 Harlandale 14,381

8 Southwest 13,873

9 Edgewood 10,471

10 East Central 10,215

11 South San Antonio 9,103

12 New Braunfels 8,950

13 Boerne 8,687

14 San Marcos Con. 8,182

15 Seguin 7,427

16 Southside 5,654

17 Medina Valley 5,088

S.C.U.C. ISD currently has the 6th

largest total enrollment among all Greater San Antonio districts

3

GREATER SAN ANTONIO: SCHOOL DISTRICT

ENROLLMENT GROWTH 2012/13-2017/18

© School District Strategies

Source: TEA

District

Total PK-12

Enrollment

2012/13

Total PK-12

Enrollment

2017/18

5-Year Cumulative

Enrollment

Growth

5-Year Percent

Growth

1 Northside 99,426 106,700 7,274 7.3%

2 Comal 18,614 23,105 4,491 24.1%

3 Schertz-Cibolo-U.C. 13,542 15,614 2,072 15.3%

4 Boerne 7,075 8,687 1,612 22.8%

5 Medina Valley 3,642 5,088 1,446 39.7%

6 New Braunfels 8,063 8,950 887 11.0%

7 Southwest 13,024 13,873 849 6.5%

8 San Marcos Con. 7,509 8,182 673 9.0%

9 East Central 9,562 10,215 653 6.8%

10 Judson 22,576 23,118 542 2.4%

11 Southside 5,123 5,654 531 10.4%

12 La Vernia 3,056 3,375 319 10.4%

13 Navarro 1,622 1,911 289 17.8%

14 Somerset 3,888 4,169 281 7.2%

15 Randolph Field 1,192 1,450 258 21.6%

4

GREATER SAN ANTONIO NEW HOME STARTS,

CLOSINGS, & LOTS DELIVERED: 2Q17-1Q18

Year-Over-Year Change

Annual Starts +7.7%

Annual Closings +8.4%

Annual Starts: 11,534

Annual Closings: 11,003

Start = Foundation started

Closing = Occupied home

Greater San Antonio homebuilders produced 11,534 starts over the past four quarters, a new high

for the current housing cycle and a 7.7% year-over-year increase

San Antonio region’s annual starts rate now at the highest level since 2008

11,003 annual closings is also a new record for the current housing cycle and the most in 9 years

Current Housing Cycle

5

GROWTH DRIVERS: TEXAS ECONOMY

Source: TWC – CES (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

March 2017 – March 2018

United States

+2.254 million +1.55%

Texas

+291,700 +2.40%Annual Job Growth in Major

Texas Markets (March 2018)

DFW +101,200

Houston +62,500

Austin +36,800

San Antonio +18,800

# of Jobs Created in Past 8 Years

DFW 754,600

Houston 529,400

Austin 280,000

San Antonio 199,000-500,000

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 15 16 17 18

An

nu

al C

han

ge

Annual Texas Employment Growth

6

GROWTH DRIVERS: GREATER SAN ANTONIO ANNUAL JOB GROWTH(8 county MSA: Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendell, Medina, Wilson counties)

Source: Texas Workforce Commission Current Employment Survey (CES)

Unemployment Rates – March 2018

San Antonio: 3.5%

Austin: 3.1%, DFW: 3.7%, Houston: 4.6%

Texas: 4.1%, US: 4.1%

Annual Job Growth

March 2018 = +18,800

(+1.8% Y-o-Y)

10-year Avg. = 20,283

In Dec. 2017, the SA MSA Unemployment Rate drops to 3.0, the lowest level in 18 years

7

GREATER SAN ANTONIO ANNUAL CHANGE IN

EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

March 2018Annual

Change% Change

Mining and Logging +1,400 +19.7%

Construction +4,400 +8.7%

Manufacturing +1,000 +2.1%

Trade, Transp, Util +3,800 +2.1%

Information -600 -2.9%

Financial Activities 0 +0.0%

Prof & Bus Services +2,100 +1.6%

Edu. & Health Serv. +1,900 +1.2%

Leisure & Hospitality +2,900 +2.2%

Other Services +900 +2.4%

Government +1,000 +0.6%Source: TWC

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Rate

%

Source: Freddie Mac

May 10, 2018

30YR : 4.55%

15YR : 4.01%

1YR ARM : 3.77%

30-Yr Conforming Rates (Freddie Mac)

30-Yr Rate has

moved over 4.5%

for first time since

2013.

8

GROWTH DRIVERS: LOW MORTGAGE RATES

30-Yr rate has remained under 4.0% for much of the current housing cycle

GROWTH DRIVERS: TIGHT SUPPLY OF PRE-OWNED HOMES (SAN ANTONIO-NEW BRAUNFELS MSA)

Annual Resale Rate (3/18) 32,724+3.1% vs. 1 Year Ago

Month Supply of Listings: 3.2

Source: Texas A&M Real Estate Center

9

Pre-owned sales in the region continue to increase; however, the supply of

listings remains extremely tight at 3.2 months (6 months considered normal)

10

S.C.U.C. ISD QUARTERLY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION

Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home

Builders start 201 and close 167 new homes in the district during the 1st quarter

Most starts in a single quarter since 4Q15

Starts 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Closings 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

1Q 156 151 173 158 170 159 194 201 1Q 178 150 154 119 149 238 189 167

2Q 211 197 198 195 231 193 195 2Q 208 139 181 179 176 248 176

3Q 184 174 215 184 286 199 165 3Q 231 183 177 163 224 216 188

4Q 151 159 136 165 247 147 170 4Q 178 178 170 163 162 173 138

Total 702 681 722 702 934 698 724 201 Total 795 650 682 624 711 875 691 167

11

GROWTH DRIVERS: S.C.U.C. ISD ANNUAL NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION

2Q17-1Q18Annual Starts: 731

Annual Closings: 669

Year-Over-Year Change

Annual Starts -0.3%

Annual Closings -17.9%

Annual starts remain flat with 731 total new home starts over the past 12 months

Annual closings rate now at 669 homes, an 18% year-over-year decline

Since 2011, district builders have produced an average of 741 starts & 717 closings per yr.

Developers delivered 542 new single-family lots (SF) over the past year, including 468 in

the 1st quarter alone (most new lots delivered in a single quarter in 3 years)

Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home

Annual District Average During Current Cycle = 717 Closings

Current Cycle

Rank District

Total Starts

2Q17-1Q18

Total Closings

2Q17-1Q18

1 Northside 3,650 3,623

2 Comal 2,078 1,893

3 Judson 1,122 1,020

4 New Braunfels 838 736

5 Schertz-Cibolo-U.C. 731 669

6 Boerne 641 656

7 East Central 538 517

8 Medina Valley 563 491

9 North East 350 415

10 Southwest 308 312

11 San Marcos Con. 234 222

12 Seguin 147 151

13 San Antonio 105 121

14 Southside 111 100

15 Navarro 102 87

16 Harlandale 64 53

17 Marion 53 48

18 Edgewood 47 44

19 South San Antonio 60 42

20 Alamo Heights 23 24

12

GREATER SAN ANTONIO SCHOOL DISTRICT RANKINGS

BY NEW HOME CONSTRUCTION 2Q17-1Q18

SCUC ISD ranked 5th

in total new home

closings from 2Q17-

1Q18 among all

Greater San Antonio

school districts

Start = Foundation started Closing = Occupied home

13

S.C.U.C. ISD ANNUAL NEW HOME CLOSINGS BY CITY

2Q17-1Q18 District Closings: 47% Cibolo, 43% Schertz, 10% Selma

New home starts in Schertz climb to 389 annual units, surpassing Cibolo’s

annual starts rate (265)

St. Hedwig market opening up with 40 starts in 1Q18

Closing = Occupied home

+83% since 2014

14

S.C.U.C. ISD TOP PRODUCING

NEW HOME SUBDIVISIONS

Rank NameAnnual Starts 2Q17-1Q18

Annual Closings 2Q17-1Q18 Elem. Zone*

Intermediate Zone JH/High School Zone

1 Saratoga 52 88 Green Valley Schlather Dobie/Steele

2 The Crossvine 93 61 Rose Garden Jordan Corbett/Clemens

3 Turning Stone 31 57 Cibolo Valley Schlather Dobie/Steele

4 Kensington Ranch (All) 20 50 Schertz Wilder Corbett/Clemens

5 Rhine Valley 46 47 Rose Garden Wilder Corbett/Clemens

6 Riata Terrace 54 45 Sippel Schlather Dobie/Steele

7 Landmark Pointe 46 41 Cibolo Valley Schlather Dobie/Steele

8 Mesa at Turning Stone 31 37 Cibolo Valley Schlather Dobie/Steele

9 Willow Grove 34 33 Rose Garden Wilder Corbett/Clemens

10 Cypress Point 47 32 Sippel Schlather Dobie/Steele

11 Cibolo Vistas/Estates 25 32 Cibolo Valley Jordan Dobie/Steele

12 Estates at Mesa Oaks 35 28 Paschal Wilder Corbett/Clemens

13 Saddle Creek Ranch 38 26 Cibolo Valley Schlather Dobie/Steele

14 Heights of Cibolo 20 19 Cibolo Valley Schlather Dobie/Steele

15 Live Oak Hills 17 16 Paschal Wilder Corbett/Clemens

*Elementary zones reflect recently approved Fall 2018 attendance zones

15

NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY ELEMENTARY ZONE:

2Q17-1Q18

• Cibolo Valley ES zone

continues to be the most

active with 212 closings over

the past 12 months

• New Rose Garden zone sees

218 starts and 151 closings

from 2Q17-1Q18

32%

*Elementary zones reflect recently approved Fall 2018 attendance zones

23%

16

NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY INTERMEDIATE ZONE: 2Q17-1Q18

The Schlather zone remains the most active zone in the district with 56% of

annual closings over the past 12 months

17

NEW HOME ACTIVITY BY

JUNIOR HIGH/HIGH SCHOOL ZONE: 2Q17-1Q18

Activity continues to shift back to the Dobie JH/Steele HS zone

61% of the district’s closings over the past 12 months occurred in the Dobie

JH/Steele HS zone

18

DISTRICT MEDIAN NEW HOME PRICE

82% of new homes are being built in

move-up neighborhoods priced

between $251K and $500K

The district’s median new home

price increases to a new high of

$286,304 in 1Q18 (+0.2% Y-o-Y)

Greater San Antonio median new

home price now $266K (+1.0% Y-o-Y)

Median New Home Price by City

City Median New Price

Schertz $297,508

Cibolo $281,682

Selma $228,767

St. Hedwig $275,500

19

SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-UNIVERSAL CITY ISD

NEW HOME LOT INVENTORY

468 new lots delivered in 1Q 2018

1,631 vacant developed lots remaining as of March 31, 2018(26.8 month supply)

7,457 planned future lots as of 1Q18 (1,037 are now under development)

Subdivision Section(s) Total Lots Attendance Zones City

Mesa at Turning Stone

7 35 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobbie/Steele Cibolo

Turning Stone S1 85 Cibolo Valley/Schlather/Dobbie/Steele Cibolo

Bindseil Farms 1 84 Schertz/Wilder/Corbet/Clemens Schertz

Asher Place 1, cp 217 Rose Garden/Jordan/Corbett/Clemens St. Hedwig

Heathers Place 1 47 Rose Garden/Jordan/Corbett/Clemens St. Hedwig

20

SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-UNIVERSAL CITY ISD

RESIDENTIAL LOTS UNDER DEVELOPMENTNext generation of residential lot development in SCUC ISD gets underway during the 2nd half of 2017

21

SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-UNIVERSAL CITY ISD

RESIDENTIAL LOTS UNDER DEVELOPMENT

1,037 future lots under development as of March 2018

Subdivision Section(s) Total Lots

Attendance Zones City

The Homestead 3B, 4 124 Sippel/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Schertz

Foxbrook 2 43 Sippel/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Rhine Valley 2 71 Rose Garden/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz

Saratoga 6, 7 87 Green Valley/Schlather/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Red River Ranch 1 86 Watts/Jordan/Corbett/Clemens Cibolo

Buffalo Crossing II 1, 2 140 Wiederstein/Jordan/Dobie/Steele Cibolo

Bindseil Farms 1 84 Schertz/Wilder/Corbett/Clemens Schertz

The Crossvine 1-3, 1-4B 185 Rose Garden/Jordan/Corbett/Clemens Schertz

Hallie’s Cove 1, 2, 3 81 Rose Garden/Jordan/Corbett/Clemens Schertz

Asher Place CP 28 Rose Garden/Jordan/Corbett/Clemens St. Hedwig

Heather’s Place CP 192 Rose Garden/Jordan/Corbett/Clemens St. Hedwig

461 lots are in Schertz

356 lots are in Cibolo

220 lots are in St. Hedwig

New or updated in 1Q18 *Elementary zones reflect recently approved Fall 2018 attendance zones

22

Aerial Photos

April 5th, 2018

23

BINDSEIL FARMS / MISTY WOODS / ESTATES AT

MESA OAKSBindseil Farms

Misty Woods

Estates at Mesa Oaks

24

NEW ROSE GARDEN ELEMENTARY

CONSTRUCTION

25

RHINE VALLEY

Corbett JH

26

THE CROSSVINE

FM 1518

27

HALLIE’S COVE

28

HUNTER’S WAY

FM 1518

29

ASHER PLACE / HEATHER’S PLACE

Asher Place

Heather’s Place

East Central ISD

SCUC ISD

30

RED RIVER RANCH

31

BUFFALO CROSSING II (KOEHLER-VEAZY)

Buffalo Crossing

Wiederstein ES

Walmart

Unit 1 (83 lots)

Unit 2 (57 lots)

32

MESA AT TURNING STONE / LANDMARK POINTE

Mesa at Turning Stone

Landmark Pointe

33

HOMESTEAD

FutureSCUC ISD

School Site

SCUC ISD

Comal ISD

34

CYPRESS POINT

SCUC ISD

Comal ISD

35

SCHERTZ-CIBOLO-UNIVERSAL CITY ISD

NEW HOME LOT INVENTORY

BY ATTENDANCE ZONE

VDL = Fully developed lot that currently vacant

UC = Homes under construction

FV = Finished home but not occupied

Future Lots = Lots either in progress or planned

Annual

Starts

Annual

ClosingsVDL UC FV Model Future Lots

191 212 438 78 61 13 236

52 88 103 15 17 2 137

71 58 81 28 16 2 81

218 151 560 101 39 10 3,017

20 50 84 0 0 0 146

174 104 354 76 54 8 1,522

0 2 0 0 0 0 887

5 4 11 5 1 0 1,471

168 107 421 85 35 7 5,160

392 372 892 161 124 22 1,868

171 190 318 57 29 6 429

309 261 725 129 55 12 4,143

422 408 906 174 133 23 3,314

731 669 1,631 303 188 35 7,457

Attendance Zone

Cibolo Valley:

Green Valley:

Paschal:

Rose Garden:

Schertz:

Sippel:

Watts:

Wiederstein:

Jordan:

Schlather:

Wilder:

Corbett/Clemens:

Dobie / Steele:

District Total:

36Copyright 2017 School District Strategies

934 future

apartment units

are approved and

moving forward

as of Spring 2018

APARTMENT

MARKET

Map No.

Name Units Planned

Status City

1 Cibolo Creek (Silverfin)

288 Under construction; Y/E 2018 delivery

Cibolo

2 Trophy Oaks 312 Construction to begin in 2018

Cibolo

3 Ratcliff 329 Proposed Cibolo

4 Artisan at Borgfeld

180 Proposed Cibolo

5 Artisan at Roy Richard

180 Proposed Schertz

6 Cibolo Crossing 334 Approved Cibolo

7 Stedman Tract TBD Proposed Cibolo

37

DISTRICT NEW HOME OCCUPANCY FORECAST(Based on known projects as of 1Q 2018)

Annual Period = 4Q-3Q

More vacant land is likely to be developed during this timeframe keeping the rate of home sales from declining

SCUC ISD now poised to see an average of 826 new home

occupancies per year over the next five years

New apartment developments projected to open in 2018/19

38

DISTRICT ENROLLMENT FORECAST (FALL 2018- FALL 2027)

Projected Net Growth

Low Scenario Moderate Scenario

3-Year 618 1,192

5-Year 1,349 2,044

10-Year 2,834 3,621

10- Yr. Annual Avg.

1.7% 2.1%

Historical

Projected

39

S.C.U.C. ISD 1Q18 SUMMARY• From 2Q17-1Q18, new homebuilders in the district produced the 5th most new home

construction among all of Greater San Antonio’s 32 school districts

• District builders initiated the construction of 201 new homes and closed 167 in 1Q18

Most new home starts in a single quarter since 2015

• 731 new homes were started and 669 were occupied in SCUC ISD over the past 12 months

SCUC ISD has averaged 717 closings per year since 2011 (beginning of the current housing cycle)

• New home construction the City of Schertz continues to grow; Schertz had 389 starts from 2Q17-1Q18 compared to 265 in Cibolo; St. Hedwig market opens up with 40 starts

• 47% of the district’s new home closings occurred in the City of Cibolo and 43% in Schertz

• Cibolo Valley ES attendance zone remains the most active with 32% of annual closings

• Schlather was the most active intermediate attendance zone with 372 closings (56%)

• 61% of the district’s new home activity occurred in the Dobie JH/Steele HS zone

• District’s median new home price climbs to a record $286,304 in 1Q18 (+0.2% YoY)

• Developers delivered 542 new single-family (SF) lots over the past year including 468 in 1Q18 (most new lots delivered in a single quarter in 3 years)

• 1,631 fully developed vacant SF lots were remaining as of March 31, 2018

• Next generation of residential lot development continues in SCUC ISD with 1,037 future SF

lots currently under development plus 934 apartment units are in-process/planned

• Another 6,420 future SF residential lots are planned with more coming through P&Z

• SCUC ISD is projected to average 826 new homes per year over the next 5 years

• District enrollment is projected to increase by 2% annually over the next 5 years

Copyright 2018 School District Strategies

40

Copyright 2018 School District Strategies.

Although School District Strategies (SDS) has used commercially reasonable efforts to obtain information from sources it believes to be reliable and accurate, SDS

does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information. Information presented in this report represents SDS’s estimates as of the date of the report

and is subject to change without notice. This report is not intended as a recommendation or endorsement of any action taken by you or any third party in regard to

the subject matter of this report or any other real estate activity. SDS WILL HAVE NO LIABILITY FOR INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, CONSEQUENTIAL, OR SPECIAL DAMAGES,

INCLUDING (BUT NOT LIMITED TO) LOST PROFITS, OR DIMINUTION IN VALUE OF YOUR BUSINESS OR PROPERTY, ARISING FROM OR RELATING TO SDS’S SERVICES

HEREUNDER, REGARDLESS OF ANY NOTICE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES AND WHETHER OR NOT SUCH DAMAGES ARE REASONABLE OR FORESEEABLE UNDER

THE APPLICABLE CIRCUMSTANCES. SDS’S LIABILITY ON ANY CLAIM OF ANY KIND, INCLUDING NEGLIGENCE, FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE ARISING OUT OF, CONNECTED

WITH, OR RESULTING FROM THIS REPORT OR THE SERVICES PROVIDED BY SDS SHALL IN NO SINGLE CASE, OR IN THE AGGREGATE, EXCEED THE AMOUNTS ACTUALLY

PAID TO SDS IN CONNECTION WITH THE REPORT.

The following contingencies and limiting conditions are noted as fundamental assumptions that may affect the accuracy or validity of the analysis and conclusions set

forth in this report. Specifically, the parties assume: that the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area, the State of Texas, and the nation as a whole will not suffer any

major economic shock during the time period of the forecast contained in this report; that general population levels will continue to increase at or above the rate

forecast; that the public and third party sources of statistical data and estimates used in this analysis are accurate and complete in all material respects, and that

such information is a reasonable resource for project planning purposes; the proposed real estate development projects described herein, when completed, will be

designed, promoted, and managed in a manner that will have an impact on the local market that is reasonably consistent with other similar projects in the past; and

that the recommendations set forth in this report will be acted upon within a reasonable period of time to preclude major changes in the factual conditions

evaluated.

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Suite 101

Dallas, Texas 75248

www.schooldistrictstrategies.com