disruptive analysis webrtc overview april 2013
DESCRIPTION
Summary of key strategic issues around the new technology of WebRTC - use-cases, forecasts, implications for telecom operators, enterprises and the wider Internet / mobile / HTML5 ecosystem. Includes forecasts of OS & device supportTRANSCRIPT
WebRTC: Overview, Status & Forecast An extract of Disruptive Analysis’ groundbreaking new research report on WebRTC
More detail available for report purchasers/subscribers
April 4th 2013
[email protected] @disruptivedean
About Disruptive Analysis
London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Covers mobile, voice, service provider technology
Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Covering VoIP since 1997 & WebRTC since June 2011
Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
**New** Report on WebRTC, Published Feb 2013 see http://disruptive-analysis.com/webrtc.htm
Twitter @disruptivedean
Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
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Remember these? Video & IM move to web
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Many previous “standalone” functions are now integrated with web pages
Coming next: voice, video, data in browser
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(Yes, you can sort-of do it with plug-ins and
Flash already.... But it’s not very good)
Concept: a simple set of Javascript APIs so web devs can use it without fuss
Complexities of codecs, media engine, firewall traversal etc all “sorted”
What is WebRTC & why does it matter? In-browser comms, “realtime web”
Catalysed by Google & open-sourcing of GIPS engine
W3C WebRTC = API & IETF RTCWeb = protocols
In theory – no separate apps or plug-ins
Aimed at allowing developers to add voice/video etc easily
Part of HTML5 & based on Javascript
Better than Flash for RTC
3 main APIs
1. GetUserMedia (camera and microphone access)
2. PeerConnection (sending and receiving media)
3. DataChannels (sending non-media direct between browsers)
Also ties in with “Websocket” IP connections
W3C Last Call Working Draft expected in Q3 2013. Specification is likely
to be standardized in 2014
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For the technically-minded....
WebRTC is a set of 3 W3C JavaScript APIs on top of...
RTCWeb, which is IETF’s on-the-wire protocol standard
Google open-sourced GIPS media engine for WebRTC
Standards debates: codecs (VP8/H264) & API flexibility
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GetUserMedia PeerConnection DataChannels
Yes Yes Developer builds
Yes Yes, but not default Yes, but not default
Yes Timing unclear Timing Unclear
Unknown if/when Unknown if/when Unknown if/when
Disruptive Analysis expects IE & Safari to start supporting WebRTC by end-2013.
Neither auto-updates: there will remain a large non-supporting base for some time
WebRTC implementation: fixed & mobile
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Most WebRTC on
PCs will be “inside
the browser”
On mobile, it’s
much more
complicated
Native browser Natively in OS 2nd browser 3rd party SDK
WebRTC is one area that is definitely not “mobile-first”. PCs about 18 months ahead
Device base supporting WebRTC
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Mil
lio
n
Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report, Feb 2013
Definitions & methodology in report - See disruptivewireless.blogspot.com for details
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Tablets
Smartphones
PCs
WebRTC base will grow rapidly, catalysed by auto-updated Chrome & Firefox browsers
Service
e.g. SMS, Telephony Product
e.g. Lync, Uberconference
Feature
e.g. Business social
Function
Voice/video moving from service to function
WebRTC? But we’ve had VoIP apps for years!
Most VoIP apps are standalone “calling” tools
Contextual / in-app opportunity slow & fragmented
Complexity for developers
X-Platform hassles
Rocket-science for SIP, acoustics etc
Immaturity of voice/telephony APIs
“Telephony” model inflexible
WebRTC fit with HTML5/apps should enable “beyond the call” voice &
video with less heavy lifting
Similar to Flash video replacing Real for in-browser streaming
Plus cool new stuff like realtime data
Mashups + comms may shift shape of the curve
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Voice ≠ Telephony
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Past: 2G / 3G / PSTN / UC Future: WebRTC, apps, APIs, 4G
Voice
Telephony
Voice
Telephony
Video, context, sense Video
Gaming, CEBP,
surveillance, social
voice, TV voice etc
Voicemail
Conferencing
PTT
Expect a shift away from “standalone” to “contexualised” communications
Only a slight exaggeration:
Phone calls are 120 years old
The “call” is reaching obsolescence
Poor fit with real human behaviour
WebRTC & mobile apps enable better, but
fragmented communications
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WebRTC key use cases
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Browser-to-browser
(or web-app) comms
Browser-to-Telco
VoIP/IMS/3Telco-
OTT
IMS
Browser-to-Telco CS
/ PSTN
Browser-to-
webserver
Web
Browser-to-contact
centre
Browser/app
conferencing
Plus: M2M, gaming, TV-based, data-centric & various others
Browser-to-UC
or IP-PBX
Verticals
Healthcare
What use-cases lead?
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Existing
web
services
Adding real-time
comms capabilities
Existing
realtime
comms
services
Extending via the web,
blending web capabilities
?
Developer world is fragmented
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VoIP &
Video
devs
Mobile
App
devs
Corp
IT
devs
Web
devs
WebRTC is trying
to please all the
people, all the time
WebRTC is a 3-legged (& therefore stable) stool
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WebRTC
Enterprise Telco Consumer
Enterprise Telco Consumer
Can survive even if one of the “legs”
takes too long: especially as each
area has 3-5 major subsets
Enterprise benefits of WebRTC as platform
Many use-cases & “angles”
Your website becomes your call centre
New models for customer interaction (eg contextual support via video)
Browser becomes flexible/updateable softphone
Easier federation / interconnect between companies
Slick web-based conferencing, inc. easier integration with web tools
like LinkedIn & DropBox
Easier 2-way comms within mobile apps
Various new possibilities with realtime data sharing
Don’t just think about WebRTC in terms of today’s telephony
Think more adding comms to any company website or app
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Enterprises? Never mind BYO Device.....
How about BYO voice?
Or BYO messaging & UC?
Or BYO conferencing?
Or BYO contact centre?
Voice & video comms about to be democratised
Traditional enterprise teams needs to understand/exploit
Or else the web & users will do it independently
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For telcos, it’s all looking pretty grim anyway Downsides
Voice & SMS saturation & cannibalisation
Regulation & competitive impacts
Weak content & VAS propositions
Economic pressures
Ecosystem competition
Upsides
Connecting the last unconnected
Smartphones & data growth
Better segmentation, pricing & promotion
Innovative services & enablers
Embracing & exploiting fragmentation
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For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst
Now
With WebRTC
Bigger opportunities
Worse threats
Faster speed Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013 Feb 2013
Voice & messaging go in-context
Telephony and messaging is increasingly done “in-
context” or “in-app”. But in many cases, telco APIs don’t
offer the right “raw ingredients” or business model.
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Fragmentation is valuable
Convergence & standards
Fragmentation & innovation
… new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient.
They are irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst.
It will fragment “because it
can”. Consumer need for
ubiquity is over-rated
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Ubiquity is dead.
Telcos developing “digital services” arms
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Many operators have business units developing their own “Telco-OTT” services.
WebRTC can help time-to-market, functionality & ease of development
Key success factors for Telco-OTT/WebRTC
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Organisation & governance Managing cannibalisation
Design Software mindset
Network awareness
Synergies
24
Multiple telco angles/oppo’s for using WebRTC
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Telco WebRTC interest
Extension of IMS / RCS / VoLTE over WebRTC
Telco-OTT reach improved
by WebRTC
Enterprise VoIP / UC /
conferencing moving to WebRTC Ground-up
interest in WebRTC (in
labs etc)
Apps, developer & HTML5 initiatives
adding WebRTC
+ Policy / broadband teams: Can we detect / block / bill for it?
Regulatory: What does this mean, how do we do 911 etc?
IMS extension currently “loudest” Telco/WebRTC domain, but not necessarily
most important. Execs should ensure it is exploited across the organisation
Key question: New ecosystem battleground?
+ growing vendor
support
Microsoft CU-RTC-WEB WebRTC or not?
Traditional comms tools &
services in the crossfire?
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Apple & Microsoft not yet aligned – will they use WebRTC as a way to fight Google?
If so, will telcos and classical voice networks be collateral damage?
Use-case summary: WebRTC exploitation factors
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Calling
Contact
centres UC Conferencing IMS extension Social Telco-OTT
WebRTC-Only
Control over users
Risk Appetite
End-to-end control
PSTN integration
Device diversity expected
Direction of comms
Novelty value
Organisational issues
Business model clarity
Geek factor
Wealthy users only?
Broadband requirements
Target platform diversity
Behaviour change needed
Legacy integration problems
Importance of UI/UX
Person-to-person, or A2P?
Litigation/regulatory risks
Competitive threats
Incumbency obstacles
Favourable Moderate Challenging Difficult
Source: Disruptive Analysis, Feb 2013
Factor descriptions/detail in full report:
See disruptive-analysis.com
Conclusion
WebRTC is real and here now
Still very new but evolving at super-speed Standards issues, mobile & even MS/Apple worked around
Supported by almost all “big names” from comms & Web “Buzz” from incumbents, startups, investors; few dissenters
Browser support on PCs fairly fast, mobile more patchy
Multiple use-cases Enterprise
Telco
Consumer web
Niche / vertical / disruptive plays
Use-cases with many “moving parts” will take longer So start now!
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www.disruptive-analysis.com WebRTC report details
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
+44 (0) 7941 100016
Skype: disruptiveanalysis
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