Disaster? Or Catastrophe?

Forest Eco System

•Resource rich areas inhabited by resource poor people

•Sustainable livelihood of these communities is under threat due to indiscriminate resource depletion.

effects of mining in local habitats commercialisation of agriculture and impact on vegetation in

the long run (particularly fertilisers and pesticides) effects of deforestation on environmentdepletion of groundwater resources

•Role that indigenous communities have played in conserving forests needs to be recognised.

Coastal Zones

Vulnerable areas along the Indian Coast due to SLR

•Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly intense events are projected during the post-monsoon period

•Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and salinization.

7500 km coast line

• Threat of displacement due to sea level rise

• Threat of intensification of disasters:

• Effects on the marine life and plant/crop life:

• Seawater being polluted by toxic chemical waste discharged from industries

Accumulation of carbon dioxide destroys the natural food chains and fisheries in the Bay

Acquaculture poses major threat to mangroves of the dying out of phyto plankton which are said to absorb carbon dioxide floating on the surface.

The dying out of phyto plankton which are said to absorb carbon dioxide floating on the surface.

Coastal Eco System

Climate Change and Mountainous region

 Basic manifestations

• Increasing number of glacier retreats. incidents of landslides,

river regimes and floods increase; in in time due to global

warming if glaciers disappear, the rivers will dry upnd entire

flora and fauna of about 500 million people will be affected. 

• Impact of overexploitation of resources on local climate and

ecology: 

Loss of bio-diversity esp rare species of medicinal plants, 

Stress on traditional agriculture, 

Increase in natural disasters which are climate induced:

earthquakes, landslides and avalanches, floods and droughts

Arid region 

Once resource rich areas now have become arid.

• Rainfall has decreased over time in the arid regions thus

affecting crop production.• Reduced production has resulted in over exploitation of land

resources and has further exacerbated the depletion of forests.

Forest fires have increased, Increase in bald hills and denuded areas, Accelerated soil erosion, gullies, Sand casting of agricultural land in lower reaches, Siltation of the traditional water harvesting structures

Urban Areas

Two basic sources affecting climate changes are:

Effluents from Industries.

Emissions from the automobiles.

Major threat to local populations is related to health:      

Air mobility has increased dramatically in the last decade due to

an increasing middle class

• Inter-linkage between exploitation of natural resources, climate change and poverty

• Unmet development needs of the poor conflict with the aspirations of the rich

• Share of Non-conventional energy in energy consumption is very low

• CDM Projects have little relevance with sustainable development from the macro and micro perspective

• Climate Change negotiations are disappointing

Underlying Concerns

Acute physical water scarce conditionsConstant water scarcities and shortageSeasonal / regular water stressed conditionsRare water shortages

Key Vulnerable River Basins

•Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India - For example a a 2°C increase in mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions.

•Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60% of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed agriculture.

•The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.

Agriculture

Health

Malaria is likely to persist in many states and new regions at hogher latitudes may become malaria-prone

The duration of the malaria transmission windows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in southern states.

Endemic regions of malaria

Regions likely to be affected by malaria in 2050s