dg jrc's support to electricity system and market ... brie… · synchronisation scenarios 1....
TRANSCRIPT
M Masera 30th June 2016
DG JRC's support to electricity system and market developments in the EU
Outline
q DG JRC’s role and expertise
q Support to Baltic BRELL De-synchronisation
q Potential for RES integration in the Baltics
q Support to RES Integration in Cyprus
2
1. Baltic/BEMIP power grid analysis
Objective of the study
Assess comparative options for a cost-effective, reliable and secure development of the Baltic power system to assess the needed investment in the Baltic electricity system (transmission capacity, power reserves, Back-to-Back converters) related to: Ø Baltic de-synchronisation from Russia/Belarus and
Ø possible synchronisation with the Continental Europe Network or with the Nordic network
Support of the integration of the Baltic States into the EU electricity system
Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan (BEMIP) 1. Electricity market integration 2. Interconnections 3. Generation adequacy
Synchronisation Scenarios 1. LT-LV-EE synchronised • no AC interconnectors with any of the neighbouring countries • asynchronously interconnected (i.e. linked through DC interconnectors)
with the Nordic countries and Poland 2. Synchronisation with Nordic • two new AC cables between Estonia and Finland 3. Synchronisation with Continental grid • a) through the existing double-circuit AC line: LitPol Link 1; • b) through two AC lines LitPol Links 1&2; • c) through one double-circuit AC line, LitPol Link 1. New DC undersea cable
Lithuania-Poland for fast power exchange
Scenario Case Balt ic-IPS/UPS*
Baltic-Nordic Baltic-CEN
Connection FCR exchange Connection FCR exchange Connection F C R exchange
L i t P o l Link 2
LitPol DC cable
2016 Reference synchronous yes asynchronous No asynchronous No - -
2020 Reference synchronous Yes asynchronous No asynchronous No - -
2025 Reference synchronous Yes asynchronous No asynchronous No - -
2025 1a asynchronous No asynchronous No asynchronous No - -
2025 1b asynchronous No asynchronous yes asynchronous No - -
2025 2 asynchronous No synchronous yes asynchronous No - -
2025 3a asynchronous No asynchronous No synchronous Yes - -
2025 3b asynchronous No asynchronous No synchronous Yes Yes -
2025 3c asynchronous No asynchronous No synchronous Yes - Yes
2030 Reference synchronous Yes asynchronous No asynchronous No - -
2030 1a asynchronous No asynchronous No asynchronous No - -
2030 1b asynchronous No asynchronous Yes asynchronous No - -
2030 2 asynchronous No synchronous yes asynchronous No - -
2030 3a asynchronous No asynchronous No synchronous yes - -
2030 3b asynchronous No asynchronous No synchronous Yes Yes -
2030 3c asynchronous No asynchronous No synchronous Yes - Yes
*Including Kaliningrad
Scenarios: 2016, 2020, 2025 and 2030
Steady state Socio-economic analysis • PLEXOS – DC power flow model for optimal dispatch • optimal dispatch function – minimising generation cost • detailed electricity transmission system of the Baltic States +
30 European countries modelled as one node per country • one year period at hourly time step Load flow analysis • PowerWorld – AC power flow model for supplementary modelling • detailed electricity transmission system of the Baltic States • for chosen scenarios from the socio-economic analysis [Dynamic analysis is out of the scope of the current study]
Modelling approach
a. Generation costs b. Electricity system development costs (including emergency reserves) c. Loss of Load Expectation d. N-1 contingency analysis Added-value (w.r.t. previous studies) • Updated current and 2020 scenarios • New Baltic-IPS/UPS de-synchronisation scenarios: 2025/30 • New scenarios where Baltic is NOT synchronised with any of the neighbouring
countries, but keeps power exchange with neighbours • Extended socio-economic analysis from the grid perspective • New scenario (w.r.t. previous feasibility studies): Lit-Pol HVDC cable • Techno-economic benefits of the planned Back-to-Back converters on Baltic-
IPS/UPS
Modelling approach
2. Potential for offshore wind farms: Baltic States case study
Methodology - preselection
Geo-based: GIS tools.
Intersection of acceptable thresholds in the considered selection conditions.
Methodology – electrical grid simulation
• Steady state transmission network simulation tool
• Each wind site is interconnected to the closest onshore substation
• Analysis of the impact of wind penetration on line congestion
Results • Online model:
www.europa.eu/!mY43Yg
• Site rankings per country
3. Analysis of national energy systems: Cyprus
Technical assistance to Cyprus Ø Assessing the current state of the transmission
and distribution electricity systems
Ø Analysis of system security for the long term scenarios proposed by MECIT
Ø Proposing technical solutions to allow a secure integration of high share of Renewable Energy Sources (RES)
1. System characterisation i. Database transmission/distribution network structure and key-
parameters ii. RES resources
2. Transmission grid analysis i. Unit commitment and economic power dispatch ii. Steady state analysis iii. Dynamic security analysis
3. Distribution grid analysis i. Spatial and temporal modelling of the electrical demand and of the
distributed generation (solar photovoltaic) ii. Analysis of distribution grid control techniques iii. Identification of reference LV networks iv. Evaluation of existing grid hosting capacity for PV v. Analysis of the impact of Electric Vehicles vi. Potential for demand response
DG JRC activities
• Island system • High day and season fluctuation of the load (250-950
MW) • Very good solar resource • Average (low) Wind resource • Generation fleet: STEAM, CCGT, DIESEL, GT • Current heavy dependence on fuel imports • Low inertia • Main fuel today: HFO, Diesel • Main fuel in future: Nat gas • Generation constraints for complying with emissions limits
(NOX, SO2) • Not very flexible operation of generation system
Activity 1 – System characterisation
Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch: Provides realistic “snapshots” of the system for Future Scenarios
These snapshots are not necessarily secure
→Are steady-state problems expected? →
→ How can we solve potential steady-state problems?
→ What are the critical cases and faults for dynamic performance?
1. UCED studiesOptimum Generation Dispatch given
Costs of electricity per generating unit (marginal cost, start-up cost)
Technical constraints Frequency Quality Defining Parameters considered
Current operational procedures
2.Load-flowstudiesExamination of steady-state
transmission bottlenecks (congestions, reactive power adequacy assessment)
3. Investigation of solutions for potential steady-state problems
4. Defining the Characteristic Case StudiesDefining the Contingency List per Characteristic Case Study
5. Determine compliance with the Frequency Quality Defining Parameters
6. Identification of conditions and metrics for compliance with the Frequency Quality Defining Parameters
7. Investigation of measures for enhancing dynamic security
→ Is the system capable of facing the critical faults?
→ Can we define constraints for compliant dynamic performance?
→What are our options?
Activity 2 – Transmission grid analysis
§ Extrapolation of results for MV grid model representing 10% of total system
§ Smart solutions for the future power system (Demand Side
Management, Electric Vehicles, reactive power provision by PV converters)
§ Grid hosting capacity for PV considering different scenarios
§ Strategies for high voltage quality operation by combining Demand response, EVs and PV
Activity 3 – Distribution grid analysis
Issue: optimal combination of on/off decisions and power levels for all
generating units across a given time horizon.
CCGT
ST
ICE
GT
PV
CSP Generation mix
Future challenge: secure operation at high RES penetration levels
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Capacity [MW]
WIND PV CSP
RES Scenario
q Energy storage capacity
• Pump storage for provision of PV peak shaving and ancillary services
• Decentralised battery storages with fast response to frequency events
• CSP with thermal storage to shift in time delivery of solar energy
q More flexible demand
• Demand response for water heating, cooling, desalination, EV's
• New strategies supporting high PV share during daytime
q More flexible thermal generation fleet
• Investigate feasibility of more FCR provision by spinning units
• Investigate faster start for non-spinning reserve
• Investigate reducing minimum down time requirements for steam units
• Investigate if minimum stable generation of steam units could be lowered
further
• Benefits for fixed or sliding pressure operation of STEAM units
Technical solutions for more flexibility
CCGT
ST
ICE GT
PV
CSP Generation mix
Results
1. Model and analysis for optimal Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch
2. Model and analysis for dynamic security analysis of the transmission grid
3. Analysis of the future electricity distribution system
Thank you!
ses.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Joint Research Centre EC Joint Research Centre Institute for Energy and
Transport