developing trends: october 2013 - world...

Developing Trends: October 2013

Overview

Developing Trends was prepared by the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) of the World Bank. The team is coordinated by Allen

Dennis (Overview), and is comprised of Tehmina Khan (High-Income), Gerard Kambou (Industrial Production), Derek Chen (Business sentiment),

Eung Ju Kim (High-income and Finance), John Baffes and Damir Cosic (Commodities), and Sanket Mohapatra (Exchange rate) Ekaterine

Vashakmadze (Inflation and Trade), and Adil Islam (Statistical Annex). The report was prepared under the guidance of Andrew Burns.

This note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.

Developing-country financial markets have improved in recent months, but remain subject to downside risks. Concerns of an imminent tapering of US quantitative easing (QE) during the summer caused long-term US Treasury yields to rise by more than 100 basis points, thereby precipitating a portfolio rebalanc-ing. Consequently, credit default swap (CDS) rates rose and bond prices, equities, and currencies of sev-eral large developing countries that benefitted from earlier capital flows experienced sharp declines. However by late August market sentiment had started to improve, supported by positive news on strengthening real-side activity and the waning effect of the earlier portfolio adjustment. Market senti-ment was further bolstered by the surprise delay of the Fed’s tapering in September as well as the recent temporary resolution of the US budget impasse. As a result, for the time being, financial market pres-sures on developing countries are easing. Indeed, between late August and late October, developing country currencies, and bond and equity indices have recovered some 4.8, 5.8 and 12.9 respectively. Fur-ther, developing country gross capital flows in the three months to October rebounded by 28.5 percent compared to flows in the three months to August. Nonetheless, the recovery is not complete and curren-

cies and bond prices of developing countries have not yet attained their May peaks. Further, developing countries continue to remain vulnerable to uncertainties related to US fiscal policy and the pace and timing of an eventual QE tapering, in particular countries with large domestic imbalances. Indeed, even in this period of easing financial market pressures, the recovery among developing countries has been uneven, with a number of countries with poorer fundamentals experiencing less easing of financial mar-ket pressures relative to other developing countries.

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May Peak ‐ late August late August ‐ current

Emerging Market Equity Index(MSCI)

Emerging Market Bond Index (EMBIG)

Emerging Market currencies Index

Financial market pressures on developing countries have eased since late August

(Percent change in index)

Source: World Bank and Bloomberg

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Jan‐11 Jun‐11 Nov‐11 Apr‐12 Sep‐12 Feb‐13 Jul‐13

Equities (new issues)

Syndicated bank lending

Bond issuance

Note: Bars represent 3‐month trailing moving averages of reported flows; Line represents total flows.Source: Dealogic and World Bank Prospects Group.

Capital flows to developing countries bounced back in September

Gross capital flows to developing countries, $ billions

October 31, 2013

Developing Trends: October 2013

On aggregate, developing-country industrial performance has improved, but weaknesses persist in some economies. Industrial activity in developing countries improved to an annualized 7.1 percent pace in the three months ending in August from 4.9 percent in July. China is leading the way with a robust 10.0 and 13.7 percent expansion in August and September (Q3 GDP growth picked up to an annualized 9.3 percent pace from 7.2 percent in Q2, fueled by investment and exports). Signs of strengthening activity are also evident in India, where industrial production stabilized in August, led by a rebound in exports. Industrial activity in Mexi-co, Bulgaria and Romania also strengthened in August on account of increased exports. However, the support to industrial activity from exports has been limited to few developing countries, since on aggregate exports have been contracting in developing countries (-1.5 percent in September), thereby serving as a drag to in-dustrial activity for the broader range of countries. Not surprising, the combination of country specific weak-nesses, weak external demand and commodity price declines contributed to the weakness in industrial pro-duction in several large developing economies, including Brazil, Indonesia, and South Africa in September. Going forward, however, business sentiment surveys suggest a moderate expansion in activity among devel-oping countries (ex. China) as the September Purchasing Manager Index rose to 50.3 (i.e. above the 50-mark indicating expansion) from 49.9 in August.

Driven by a variety of factors, commodity prices have diverged in recent months. Crude oil prices stabilized in September and October, as risks related to geo-political tensions in Syria receded. Food prices have contin-ued their downward slide on account of an improved supply outlook. Indeed, rice remains in ample supply with an estimated 23% stock-to-use ratio and that of maize also improved to 16.3% in September. The stabili-zation of oil prices and the decline in global food prices has been supportive of easing inflationary trends in developing countries. However, in countries, where currencies have recently depreciated sharply (e.g. Indo-nesia), keeping a lid on inflation has been more challenging. After declining by 14.8% in the year-to-July, in-dustrial metal prices picked up by 5 percent in August and stabilized in September mostly on account of im-proving global manufacturing activity and strong Chinese imports. Nonetheless, global stocks of metals at major exchanges still remain at historical highs, thus suggesting that the current uptick in metal prices is more cyclical in nature, rather than a trend reversal. Developments in precious mineral prices (e.g. gold, silver etc.) have been more affected by financial markets developments. Indeed, the delay in US Fed ‘tapering’ helped provide some support to precious mineral prices in September. Given the temporary nature of the factors providing support to both industrial metals and precious mineral prices, exporters of these commodities re-main vulnerable to their likely future downturns.

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Jan '11 Jul '11 Jan '12 Jul '12 Jan '13 Jul '13

India

ChinaOther developing

Industrial Production is firming in developing countries

Industrial production growth, 3m/3m saar

9Source: World Bank, Datastream.

120

130

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170

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190

200

Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13

Food Crude Metal & Minerals

Commodity Prices have diverged in recent months

Source: World Bank

October 31, 2013

High income (1)

Private sector activity in the US held up in Q3 despite headwinds from higher interest rates

Both consumer spending and manufacturing output held up in Q3, despite a 100 basis points increase in interest rates during the summer re-flecting market expectations of a tapering of monetary support. Retail spending growth ac-celerated to 6.7 percent (3m saar) in August. IP growth momentum also improved slightly to 0.8 percent (3m saar) in September from 0.2 per-cent in August—although down from Q2—while the ISM manufacturing PMI rose to its highest level in 2 years

The recent increase in fiscal policy uncertainty has weighed on confidence. In October, both the flash Markit manufacturing PMI and Michi-gan consumer confidence indices eased to their lowest levels since the start of the year indicat-ing weakening growth. However impacts from the government are expected to be temporary and be offset by a rebound in Q1 next year.

Activity in the Euro Area continues to strengthen

In Europe, a broad-based firming in activity has also been sustained in Q3. Improving domestic conditions have been reflected in rising import demand, which grew at an annualized pace of 5.3 percent in the three months to August (versus 4.9 percent in the US). Meanwhile, business senti-ment has eased slightly but is pointing to a sus-tained expansion in output, roughly the strongest in more than two years.

In addition, substantial progress has been made on reducing external and fiscal imbalances with improved competitiveness spurring export growth in several periphery economies. Labor markets also appear to be stabilizing, although some 19 million people remain out of work -12 percent of the Euro Area workforce and more than 25 percent in Greece and Spain.

Activity indicators have softened in Japan, but confidence remains buoyant

Both retail spending land manufacturing output have lost momentum in Q3, easing to just 0.7 per-cent and 1.4 percent (3m/3m saar) respectively in August.

However consumer confidence remains relatively resilient. Meanwhile the Tankan diffusion index of business conditions climbed to its highest level in six years for large manufacturers, indicating improving growth prospects.

The improvement in activity in high income economies in the second quarter has lasted into the third, alt-hough softening slightly. In the US, the government shutdown and debt-ceiling debate has hurt consumer and business confidence, although real effects on the economy are likely to prove relatively small and tempo-rary. Business surveys are pointing to continued expansion in the Euro Area. Activity has softened in Japan but confidence remains buoyant.

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52

56

60

64

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

Euro AreaJapanGermanyItaly50-line

Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)Diffusion Index

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Markit Last updated: Oct. 23, 2013

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12

-80

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Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13

USAEuro Area [Right]Japan [Right]

High-income industrial production3m/3m saar, Percent

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datastream Last updated: Oct. 23, 2013

3m/3m saar, Percent

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-40

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Jan-10 May-10Sep-10Jan-11 May-11Sep-11Jan-12 May-12Sep-12Jan-13 May-13Sep-13

Euro AreaUSAJapan

High-income export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


October 31, 2013 page 1

High income (2)

G3 equities have been strong since late August, while U.S. Treasury yields has dropped sharply.

After faltering somewhat during the summer market sell-off, G3 equities have been robust since late August (although they experienced short-lived sell-off episode in early October amid the 16-day partial shutdown of the U.S. govern-ment ).

Since late August, U.S. (S&P 500), German (DAX), and Japan (Topix) equities have gained 7.9%, 10.9%, and 6.5%, respectively, leading global stock-market rally.

Meanwhile, the long-term U.S. Treasury yields have considerably declined recently after they have climbed more than 100 basis points be-tween late May and early September.

Credit default swap spreads for troubled Euro-Area economies have been generally stayed down with an exception of Portugal.

Notwithstanding financial market volatility dung the summer, credit risks for high-spread Euro-zone economies have remained at levels closed to their two-year lows with an exception of Portugal.

CDS spreads for Portugal have widened by more than 270 basis points between late May and mid-July on account of recent political strains. But they have fallen significantly since the troika of inter-national lenders (the European Commission, Euro-pean Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund) revised their growth forecasts for the coun-try upwards.

Borrowing costs for Italy and Spain have re-mained steady, while those for Portugal have re-mained somewhat elevated.

The benchmark 10-year yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds have been mostly steady throughout the year despite lingering con-cerns over their political and fiscal situations.

The stability in bond markets reflect investor con-fidence in the Euro-zone’s growth prospect. Cou-pled with easing financial volatility and fading fiscal strain, indeed, bond market stability should drive a pick up in the region’s economic activity into next year.

Portuguese bond yields have remained elevated compared to early-May levels, but they have con-siderably dropped recently amid the country’s strengthening growth prospect.

After faltering during the summer market sell-off, G3 equities been strong since late August. The cost of in-suring troubled Euro-zone countries’ debt has been steady, remaining at levels close to their two-year lows, with an exception of Portugal. Borrowing costs for Italy and Spain have been mostly stable throughout the year, reflecting the market confidence on the Euro-zone growth prospects.

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400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Oct-13

PortugalIrelandSpainItalyBelgium

Daily CDS Sov ereign rates since Jan 1 2011Basis points


70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160


S&P-500 (USA)DAX (Germany)Topix (Japan)

G-3 equity marketsIndex, January 1 2010=100


3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13

Daily yields on 10-year government bonds

Yield (percent)

Italy

Portugal

Source: Bloomberg and Development Prospects Group

Spain

October 31, 2013

Industrial Activity

Global IP rebounded to trend growth in Q3, with the strength of the recovery varying across regions. After a steady deceleration in Q2, global IP

growth advanced for the second consecutive month in August to the seasonally adjusted annu-alized rate (saar) of 4.1 percent, up from 2.8 per-cent saar in Q2.

A major factor behind the global IP rebound, de-veloping country IP growth accelerated in Q3 to 7.1 percent saar from 3.6 percent saar in Q2 ow-ing mainly to China’s 13.7 percent saar IP growth.

IP growth was mixed in the high income region. IP growth slumped to 1.4 percent saar in August in Japan from 6.4% saar in July; it improved to 0.7 percent saar in August from 0.5 percent saar in July in the Euro area, and strengthened to 2.3 percent saar in the United States .

Diverging performances continued in Q3. Japan IP growth contracted in August due to de-

clines in the chemicals and transport equipment sectors. Japan September PMI suggests that in-dustrial production will rebound. However, the declining September Euro Area manufacturing PMI signals continued weakness in the Euro area.

With September PMI indicators picking up in large developing countries including China, In-dia, Brazil and Turkey, developing country indus-trial production could further strengthen. This should be supported by an increase in domestic demand as well as in exports, as demand from high income countries strengthens.

Uneven recovery in emerging economies’ industrial sector in Q3. IP growth in China accelerated to 13.7 percent

saar in September, up from 5.1 percent in Q2. IP growth in the rest of East Asia and Pacific region remained negative but stabilized in September following sharp contractions in July and August.

IP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean fell for the second consecutive month in August, re-flecting weak performance in Brazil and Mexico. Growth picked up in Europe and Central Asia and in South Asia on positive growth in India; but re-mained subdued in Sub-Saharan Africa as South Africa’s IP growth contracted on weak domestic demand and labor strikes.

In the Middle East and North Africa IP growth decelerated to 2.6 percent saar in June and re-mains subject to significant downside risks stem-ming from political events in Syria and Egypt.

Global industrial production growth rebounded to 4.1 percent in August, with varying performances across regions. Industrial production growth in developed countries continued but at a slower pace, mitigating a strong rebound in developing countries. August figures show industrial production grew moderately in high-income countries but accelerated in developing countries, largely due to stronger industrial output recovery in China, which has been boosted by a pick-up in domestic demand and export demand.

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4

8

12

16

Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13

WorldHigh incomeDeveloping

Global industrial production3m/3m saar, Percent


-40

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0

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50


ChinaEAP excl. ChinaEurope & Central AsiaMexicoLAC excl. Mexico

EAP, ECA & LAC industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar


-40

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-20

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20

Jan-10 May-10Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13

Middle East & North AfricaIndiaSouth Asia excl. IndiaSouth AfricaSSA excl. South Africa

MENA, SAS & SSA industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar


October 31, 2013

Business Sentiment

Global Manufacturing Sector Sentiment at 27-month high Business sentiment in the global manufacturing

sector continued to improve in September. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI increased from 51.6 in August to 51.8, which is the third consecutive monthly increase and a 27-month peak.

Driving the improvement were increases in global manufacturing production which rose for the eleventh consecutive month, and new orders con-tinue to grow for the ninth consecutive month. New export orders also posted the sharpest in-crease since May 2011.

Even though both are improving, business senti-ment in the high-income countries (PMI at 52.5) continues to be significantly higher than that in developing countries (PMI at 50.2).

Business sentiment in the U.S. and Japan improve but eases slightly in the Euro Area With growth in new orders, production and em-

ployment, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI for the U.S. rose from 55.7 in August to 56.2 in September, the highest this year.

The Manufacturing PMI for the Euro Area edged down to 51.1 from 51.4 in August. The Nether-lands came in at the highest (55.8), with Ireland (52.7) at second. Levels of production and new orders both rose for the third consecutive month in September, but growth of output, new orders and new export orders were all slightly slower.

Japan’s PMI rose from 52.2 in August to 52.5 in September, the highest since February 2011. New order growth was at 40-month high and backlogs rose at fastest pace since April 2006.

Most large emerging economies continue to see im-proved sentiment Seeing improvements in all areas except employ-

ment, China’s PMI increased from 51.0 in August to 51.1. in September.

PMI in Brazil, India and Turkey increased to 49.9, 49.6 and 54.0, respectively. Turkey, in particular saw a strong improvement with sharp rises in out-put levels and order intakes.

Mexico’s and South Africa’s PMI fell to 50.0 and 49.1, respectively, with the latter indicating a contraction in manufacturing, as strikes hit out-put.

Business sentiment within the global manufacturing sector improved in September with the latest reading being the highest in over two years. Both developed and developing countries saw improved sentiment, but that among the developed countries continue to substantially more favorable. Among developing regions, improved business sentiment were observed for East Asia & Pacific, Europe & Central Asia, and South Asia, with Europe & Central Asia showing the largest increase.

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Euro AreaJapanGermanyItaly50-line



44

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50

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54

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58

60


Brazil ChinaIndia MexicoSouth Africa Turkey50-line



48

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54

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58


ChinaDeveloping excl. ChinaHigh Income50-line

Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)Diffusion Index, 50 indicates growth

Source: World Bank; Haver Analytics; Markit Last updated: Oct. 23, 2013

October 31, 2013

International Trade (1)

Weak developing country demand continues to weigh down on global trade.

Global trade volumes contracted at an [3.2 per-cent annualized pace in the three months to Au-gust—worst performance since October of 2012, with much of the weakness attributed to con-tracting developing country imports.

Developing country trade volumes contracted at an annualized pace of [8.9 percent] in the three months to August - worst performance since March of 2009.

High income country import demand also showed some weakness recently with trade vol-umes contracting at an annualized pace of 0.5 percent in the three months to August reflecting weak and fragile improvement in domestic de-mand.

Performance across developing countries and regions are varied.

Reflecting weaker domestic demand conditions, particularly in India, the largest economy in the region, where contraction of import volumes con-tinues to exceed 30 percent annualized pace since July.

Import demand showed some strengthening (3.5 percent A.R. in August) in China, but import de-mand continues to contract at an accelerated rate in the rest of the region reflecting policy tightening.

Import demand is positive in ECA reflecting close ties with the recovering Euro Area, but showed a 1.4 percent in September contraction in LAC re-flecting weakening of activity in Mexico.

Data lags behind in Sub Saharan Africa and the Mid-dle East Data for both sub Saharan Africa and the Middle

East and North Africa lag behind. Latest available data shows that, as was the case for other devel-oping countries, import demand for Sub Saharan Africa strengthened in January and February 2013 at an above 10 percent annualized pace. Howev-er, import demand in the regions largest econo-my has alternated between expansion and con-traction between June (16.5%) and August (-0.1%).

However in the Middle East and North Africa, the contraction in import demand persisted through February (seven consecutive months of contract-ing imports), reflecting the effects of political challenges on demand conditions in the region.

Contraction of global trade intensified led by weak developing country import demand, in contrasts to recent episodes of global trade weaknesses. Among developing regions weakest trade perfor-mance through August include South Asia and East Asia Pacific region with the exception of China. Strengthening economic activity in the largest economies in Latin America and Europe and Central Asia continue to support import expansion.

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WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global Import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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60


South AsiaSub Saharan AfricaSouth AfricaMiddle East and North Africa

Regional import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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East Asia & Pacific East Asia & Pacific (ex. China)Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean

Regional Import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


October 31, 2013

International Trade (2)

Export performance diverges between develop-ing and high-income countries.

Although overall trade contracted in August (latest available data), exports have been ex-panding in high-income countries since April, in contrast with the export contraction in develop-ing countries since April. Given that developing country import demand has also been significant-ly weaker in recent months, the rise in high-income exports suggest increase North-North trade flows.

Nonetheless, most of the developing country ex-port contraction is attributable to China where efforts to clamp on over invoicing are beginning to reflect in the data. Excluding China, develop-ing country exports expanded at a modest 0.3% in August (compared to –18.8% in China).

Although developing country exports contracted in September, export performance across devel-oping regions is heterogeneous.

South Asia has seen a major revamp of its exports since August supported by a significantly depre-ciated rupee contributing to a double digit ex-pansion of South Asia exports since August.

Recovery in the Euro Zone supported export growth in ECA region following an earlier period of contraction.

LAC exports on the other hand weakened reflect-ing decline in exports in Brazil related to easing commodity prices.

Weakness in exports likely persisted through Q4.

Data lags behind for the Middle east and Sub Sa-haran Africa, however data through February shows that exports in both regions recovered.

New export order indicators suggest that the

general weakness in developing country trade is likely to persist through Q4 2013 as export orders contracted for many large developing countries Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Russia (export orders increased in Turkey).

However, if the strengthening of high-income

country activity is to persist, as is expected, this should provide some support to a pick-up in de-veloping country exports , even if with a lag. ECA countries seem to be

As with imports, high-income country exports continue to outperform developing-country exports. Performance across developing regions differ, with the sharpest contraction observed in East Asia and Pacific. Export order indicators suggest that the weakness in developing country exports will persist through Q4, however, if the strengthening of high-income imports persists this should miti-gate the extent of weakness which is also confirmed by slowing the pact of export contraction.

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WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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East Asia & Pacific East Asia & Pacific (ex. China)Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean

Regional export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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South AsiaSub Saharan AfricaSouth AfricaMiddle East and North Africa

Regional export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


October 31, 2013

Commodities (1)

Oil prices retreat from their August peaks as risks re-cede. Crude oil prices averaged $107/bbl during

2013Q3, up 2 percent since 2013Q2 and 4 per-cent higher than a year ago. Spillover fears of Syria’s conflict to the Gulf and large output re-ductions by Iraq and Libya (almost 1 mb/d each) weighed in.

OPEC crude oil output fell below 30 mb/d in Sep-tember, led by declines in Libya and Iraq, despite Saudi output topping 10 mb/d for the third month in a row. Non-OPEC output increased marginally as declines in Norway were offset by increases in FSU countries.

The gap between Brent and WTI widened to US$ 10/bbl by end-Oct 2013, as US crude production outpaces demand weighing down on WTI.

Metal prices have stabilized in Q3 on better Chinese data.

The decline in metal prices was halted during 2013Q3 on improving global manufacturing and stronger Chinese imports, but the index is down 11% since 2013Q1 on new mine supplies and ex-pectations of slower demand growth by China.

Tin continues to outperform other metals as In-donesia, the world’s second largest tin producer and largest exporter, has restricted exports due to new purity regulations.

Global stocks of metals at major exchanges have declined (down 6% during 2013Q3), they are still elevated by historical standards. Copper and nickel stocks at the major metals exchanges are up 67 and 85% respectively in 2013Q3 (y/y).

Precious metals prices have stabilized in Q3 as the “tapering” was delayed by US Fed.

Precious metals have been on the decline since early 2012Q4 and price of silver, gold and plati-num are down 26%, 20% and 5%, respectively, for the year to the 2nd week of September.

Reduced demand for safe-heaven investments and expectations of changes in US monetary poli-cy have triggered a rush out of the exchange-traded funds, which have been the main drivers on price declines. Delay of “tapering” has been a support for precious metals’ prices.

While holdings of gold by exchange traded funds (ETFs) are down on y/y basis in September (27%), monthly declines have slowed in Aug and Sept. to 1%, from 5-6% declines observed earlier in 2013.

Crude oil prices have retreated from their August peaks as geo-political receded. Prices of all industrial met-als stabilized in September on improvements in Chinese data, but are still off from mid-February peaks as the markets remain well supplied. Precious metals also stabilized in September as the beginning of US Fed ‘tapering’ was delayed.

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130

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

BrentWest-Texas Intermediate

Oil pricesUSD per barrel


70

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100

110

120

130

140


TinCopperNickelAluminium

Metals PricesIndex, January 2012=100


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GoldPlatinumSilver (right axis)

US cents/troy ouncePrecious Metal Prices

US$/troy ounce

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Handy&Harman Last updated: Oct. 23, 2013

October 31, 2013

Commodities (2)

Maize and rice supply outlook remains solid; marked improvements in wheat.

Grain prices have been declining steadily since the summer of 2012 as supply expectations for the 2013/14 crop season have gradually im-proved. Between July 2012 and September 2013, maize and wheat prices have declined 38% and 11%, respectively. Global maize production is expected to reach 957 million tons, up from 860 million tons in 2012/13, increasing the S/U ratio from 14.1% to 16.3%. Yet, the S/U ratio for wheat is expected to remain the same at 25%.

Rice prices averaged $444/ton in September, the second lowest since the post-2007 boom. The S/U ratio is expected to reach almost 23%, remark-ably similar to that of 2012/13 and well within historical norms.

Edible oil prices, which declined sharply in 2012 and early 2013, have stabilized.

The World Bank’s edible oil index is up 1% since 2013Q2 but 7% lower than a year ago. While palm oil prices are marginally lower due to ample supplies from Malaysia and Indonesia (world’s top palm oil suppliers), soybean process have come under pressure in the past two months due to un-usually low stocks, a reflection of weather-related damages to the U.S. soybean crop. World pro-duction prospects for sunflowerseed have deteri-orated as well.

Demand for oilseeds and edible oils remains strong, especially for China and India—they ac-count for one-third of global edible oil consump-tion. Edible oil prices are expected to decline al-most 9% in 2013.

Raw material prices have been under pressure due to strong supplies.

Natural rubber prices have come under pressure due to strong supplies by Thailand and Indonesia. Demand by China, on the other hand, has been weakening on fears of growth moderation—most natural rubber production is destined for tire manufacturing, a sector very sensitive to growth prospects.

Cotton prices have been stable during the past three quarters. Global cotton production is ex-pected to decline (25.5 million tons in 2013/14, down from last season’s 26.9 million tons), weak demand is likely to generate an additional 2 mil-lion tons of stocks, most of which is likely to be purchased by the Chinese government.

Most agricultural commodity prices have been declining, with the overall index down 3.5% since 2013Q2 and more than 13% lower than a year ago. Beverages and raw material have led the decline down 32% and 35%, respectively. Grain prices have not declined as much due to some weather problems. Increases are expected in the stock-to-use ratio for maize and rice but not wheat.

Wheat, maize and rice prices

Edible oil prices

Raw materials prices

Source: World Bank.

Source: World Bank.

Source: World Bank.

October 31, 2013

International Finance (1)

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Jan-11Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle-East & North Africa

Daily CDS Sovereign rates since Jan 1 2011Basis points


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Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11 Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12 Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13 Oct-13

MSCI AsiaMSCI EEMSCI LAC

MSCI Regional Equity IndicesIndex (Jan 1, 2011 = 100)


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Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11 Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12 Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13 Oct-13

Emerging MarketsDeveloped Markets

MSCI Equity IndicesIndex (Jan 1, 2011 = 100)


Developing-country CDS rates have tightened recently, and they are back to the pre-market stress levels.

CDS spreads for developing countries have tight-ened by about 50 bps on average on October fol-lowing resolutions of the U.S. budget impasse.

Expectations of Fed’s tapering delay also weighted positively on developing-country credit risks.

However, CDS spreads for countries that bored the blunt of the summer market sell-off remain elevated compared to early-May levels: for India, the elevated credit risk also reflect high levels of bad loans owed by government-owned banks.

Global equities have rallied from the summer sell-off, with developing-country stock outperform-ing. Developing-country stocks have risen 10.5%

since the end of August amid Fed-inspired global stock rally, compared with a 9.2% gain for devel-oped countries.

Developing-country equities have been boosted by lower valuations following the summer market volatility, and improved growth prospect, espe-cially for China.

Nevertheless, developing-country shares have declined 2.7% thus far this year, while mature-market equities have gained 20.1% on the back of record U.S. stock rally.

Stock markets across developing regions have gained since late August.

The rally in stocks markets was seen among all developing-country regions since late August. Emerging European shares faring better than oth-er regions .

Emerging Europe, Latin America, and Asia region-al indices have increased by 16.1%, 13.7%, and 11.9% since late August.

The gain is especially strong for countries that were among worst performers during the summer market stress, such as India, Indonesia, and Tur-key.

Credit risks for developing countries have fallen since early September as market sentiments have improved. Global stock markets have rallied from the summer sell-off, with developing-country shares outperforming mature-market equities since the end of August. Stocks markets in all developing-country regions experi-enced considerable since late August, led by Emerging Europe countries.

October 31, 2013


Developing-country bond funds have continued to post outflows since June, while equity funds have attracted inflows in recent months.

Emerging-market bond funds posted a third con-secutive monthly outflows of about $4.8 billion in September, pushing total June-to-September bond outflows to $40.4 billion.

In contrast, EM equity funds posted inflows of $2.4 billion last month, paring year-to-date equi-ty outflow to $4.3 billion.

Preliminary October data indicate outflows to EM bond funds continued but at a slower pace. Meanwhile, there have been about $800 million of inflows to EM equity funds this month.

Capital flows surged in September after slowing considering between June and August. Gross capital flows to developing countries

surged to about $53 billion in September, after averaging only $30 billion between June and Au-gust.

Furthermore, total flows for the first nine months of 2013 amounted to $412, up 28% from the like period of 2012, supported especially by strong bond and bank flows.

The 16-day partial shutdown of the U.S. govern-ment has affected capital flows to developing countries in early parts of October. But market sentiment has improved following the temporari-ly resolution of the U.S. debt stand-off.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

Bond IssuanceEquity IssuanceSyndicated Bank Loans

Gross Capital Flows to Dev eloping Regions$ bil l ion, 3-mon. m.a.

Source: World Bank Prospec ts Group and Datas tream Last updated: Oct. 23, 2013

Developing-country sovereign bond spreads have declined significantly since late August, helped by the im-proved market sentiment towards EM debt. Outflows from emerging-market bond funds continued in Sep-tember and October, in contrast to small inflows to EM equity funds for the like period. Capital flows to de-veloping countries rose sharply in September, partially reversing a faltering between June and August.

Borrowing costs for developing-country bonds have fallen considerably from June highs, but they remain elevated relative to early-May levels. After surging more than 100 basis points (bps)

during the mid-year market turmoil, developing-country bond spreads have tightened about 50 bps since late August.

The drop in spreads reflect improving market sentiments towards developing-country debt on back of the delay of Fed’s tapering and the tem-porarily resolution of U.S. budget impasse.

The current spreads are much higher than earlier levels seen this year, but they are still significantly lower than the long-term average.

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep

EM Fixed Income Funds

EM Equity Funds

$ billions

2011 2012 2013

Foreign portfolio inflows to developing countries

Source: EPFR and Development Prospects Group

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13

Source: Bloombergand Development Prospects Group

(JP Morgan EMBIG spreads, basis points )

Developing-country bond spreads sicne June 2011

EM sovereignbond spreads

2000‐2007Average

October 31, 2013


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

International Equity Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

International Bond Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLat in America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

Source: Deallogic, DEC Prospects Group Last updated: Oct. 23, 2013

Bank Lending$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)

Equity flows remained steady in August.

Equity placements (a combination of IPOs and follow-on issuance) surged to $6.4 billion in Sep-tember from a mere $903 million in August, on the back of global stock-market rally. And year-to-date flows are up 11% to $67 billion from a year before.

The increase in equity flows in the first nine months of 2013 was due mainly to the strong is-suance activity from Latin America (especially from Brazil and Mexico).

The top 4 countries (China, Brazil, Mexico, and India) dominated overall equity issuance this year, accounting for 75% of total volume with China making up about 30%.

Bond issuance Surged in September, bouncing back from a sharp faltering during the summer.

Bond issuance amounted to $37 billion in Sep-tember, up sharply from the monthly average of $7.3 billion during-August.

The surge in bond flows was helped by improved market sentiment amid the surprise delay of the fed’s tapering of its stimulus program.

Year-to-date bond issuance stands 29% above the 2012 level.

Preliminary October data suggest that bond issu-ance activity remain somewhat steady, helped by strong issuance activity from Chinese corporate borrowers.

Bank lending fell considerably in September, af-ter holing up very well during the summer.

Syndicated bank loans to developing countries fell to $10.5 billion in September after averaging $19 billion between June and August.

This delayed reaction to the mid-year market tur-moil is understandable given that bank lending tends to be a lagging indicator due to its rather length transaction time.

Nevertheless, bank flows rose 21 % year-on-year to a record high of $155 billion in the first nine months of 2013, as more investors turn into loan market.

Equity flows climbed sharply in September on the back of global stock-market rally. Bond flows surged in Sep-tember, after averaging only $7.4 billion between June and August, as improving market sentiments bolstered demand for EM debt. Meanwhile, bank lending fell in the month after holding up very well dung the summer, highlighting lagging nature of loan flows. Nevertheless, bank flows are on a record pace thus far this year.

October 31, 2013

Exchange Rates

The euro gained strength together with an eco-nomic upturn.

The euro has continued to appreciate in trade weighted real effective (REER) terms in recent months along with strengthening economic activ-ity in the Eurozone, bolstered the ECB’s continued supportive policy stance.

The US dollar has been depreciating in REER terms since mid-year, as relatively lackluster eco-nomic data and the US Federal Reserve’s decision to delay the “tapering” of its quantitative easing (involving $85 billion/month bond purchases) weighed on the dollar.

The Japanese yen has broadly stabilized after an earlier steep depreciation resulting from sharp monetary stimulus.

Currencies of several large middle-income coun-tries suffered a sharp sell-off during mid-year, but have stabilized since late August

Currencies of several middle-income developing countries depreciated sharply during mid-year as apprehensions of US Fed tapering since May 22 caused a rise in long term US bond yields and a rebalancing of portfolios away from emerging market assets.

These currencies have stabilized since late Au-gust, even before the postponement of US Feder-al Reserve’s tapering plans on September 17.

The Indian rupee which had suffered one of the largest depreciations (17% between April and August) partially recovered its losses, along with Brazilian real, Turkish lira and South African rand.

The sharp depreciations during mid-year were not a generalized developing-country phenome-non

The sharp depreciation during mid-year were mostly experienced by developing countries that had benefited earlier from strong capital flows or high commodity prices (or a combination of the two).

Most developing-country currencies did not come under excessive pressure. Overall, 57 per-cent of developing countries saw an appreciation of their effective exchange rate between April 1 and August 28, while only 33 percent have seen a decline.

76

80

84

88

92

96

100

104

108


JapanUSAEuro Area

High income real effectiv e exchange ratesIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


The euro has gained in recent months together with strengthening economic activity, while the US dollar has depreciated. Currencies of several large middle-income developing countries depreciated sharply during mid-year, but have stabilized since late August. The depreciations, however, were not a generalized developing country phenomenon—they occurred mostly in countries that had benefited earlier from strong capital flows. Developing country currencies remain vulnerable to eventual QE tapering and tighter financial conditions.

October 31, 2013

Inflation

Global inflation was above 4 percent in September—about 2 pp higher than in May of 2013. This is mainly driven by demand pressures due to reviving economic activity in high-income countries but also reflects an increase in global energy costs. High-income country inflation accelerated to a

2.5 percent annualized rate in the three months to August, the highest rate since November of 2012.

Inflation in developing countries eased to 6.6 percent in August [0.2 pp decline compared with July], with performance remaining heterogene-ous across developing regions.

Inflation eased insignificantly in ECA from earlier picks and continued to moderate in LAC, but contin-ues its upward trend in the EAP region (excluding China). Tightening policies in Russia and lower global

food prices helped to curb inflation in ECA region resulting in a 0.6 pp drop in the regional inflation in September compared with its August reading.

In LAC (excl. Venezuela), inflation continues its easing trend reflecting policy tightening in Brazil and easing economic activity in Mexico. In con-trast, inflation reached a record high 68 percent annualized rate in July Venezuela reflecting mas-sive macroeconomic imbalances.

High inflation in Indonesia related to currency depreciation and energy price hikes despite se-ries of policy tightening is behind a sharp rise in the EAP (excl. China) inflation rates. Rising hous-ing prices have pushed up inflation is China, but it remains below the 4 percent targeted rate.

Political problems and macroeconomic imbalances continue to fuel inflation in MENA. Inflation in SAS has remained around 10 percent over the past year reflecting supply constraints. Inflation has been be-low 8 percent since February in Sib-Saharan Africa, about one half of its last year level. Inflation in MENA remains at the highest levels

since mid-2008 reflecting political instability and large macro imbalances.

Food price moderation continues to translate into easing inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa. Stabiliza-tion of local currency eased price pressures in South Africa but the headline inflation remains around the upper limit of the targeted rate.

Moderate price pressures persist in South Asia reflecting pressures on local currency and supply bottlenecks.

Global inflation continues its upward trend reflecting strengthening economic activity in high-income econo-mies and easy policies worldwide. Developing country inflation has however shown some signs of stabilization in September reflecting waning effects of earlier currency devaluation. Meanwhile, easing food prices en-couraged a new wave of rate cuts in developing countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, including in An-gola, Botswana, Mozambique, Sierra Leone and the West African monetary union.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13

D eveloping C PI inflationH ig h- income C PI inflation

Dev eloping and high income infla tionPercent change, 3m/3m saar

Source: World Bank Prospect s Group Last updated: Oct. 23, 2013

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13

Middle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSouth AfricaSSA excl. South Africa

MENA, SAS & SSA inflationPercent change, 3m/3msaar


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13

ChinaEAP excl. ChinaEurope & Central AsiaLAC excl. Venezuela

EAP, ECA & LAC inflationPercent change, 3m/3m saar


October 31, 2013

Average 2012 2013 20131999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep

World 2.9 9.5 5.2 3.5 3.1 3.9 2.9 .. 0.1 0.8 0.4 ..High - in come cou n tries 0.4 7.8 2.5 0.8 -2.4 1.3 2.6 .. -0.1 0.5 0.1 ..

Industrial countries 0.2 7.7 1.9 0.5 -2.7 2.0 2.5 .. 0.0 0.5 0.2 ..United States 0.2 5.7 3.4 3.6 2.5 4.1 1.1 2.3 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.6Japan -1.0 15.6 -2.6 0.2 -7.0 2.3 6.2 .. -3.1 3.4 -0.9 ..Euro Area 0.1 6.5 2.9 -2.5 -7.1 0.5 2.7 .. 0.6 -0.8 0.7 ..United Kingdom -1.1 2.8 -1.2 -2.5 -7.8 2.1 3.0 .. 1.4 0.2 -1.1 ..

Other high income 0.2 7.7 1.9 0.5 -2.7 2.0 2.5 .. 0.0 0.5 0.2 ..Hong Kong (China) -3.7 3.4 0.8 -0.9 1.7 -3.0 -4.5 .. -0.5 .. .. ..Singapore 5.6 29.6 7.9 0.2 8.7 -8.1 33.1 -7.1 -1.9 -1.6 -1.1 3.6Taiwan (China) 3.5 24.2 4.4 -0.2 1.7 -1.2 -5.3 6.5 0.6 0.9 -0.2 0.5

Dev elopin g cou n tries 6.7 12.6 9.7 7.3 10.0 7.3 3.6 .. 0.5 1.2 0.8 ..East Asia and Pacific 11.6 14.5 11.7 9.2 13.9 8.5 4.0 11.7 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.7

China 13.7 15.5 13.7 10.0 12.3 9.8 5.0 13.7 0.8 1.4 1.2 0.8Indonesia 3.4 4.7 4.0 4.1 39.3 0.5 -5.2 .. -2.6 0.8 0.2 ..Thailand 8.6 14.6 -8.5 2.1 8.7 -4.0 -11.9 -7.0 1.4 -2.7 1.3 -2.5Malaysia 4.7 7.2 1.2 4.4 16.5 -9.7 11.0 .. 0.5 1.8 -4.6 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. 9.8 6.3 1.0 1.7 4.1 2.2 .. 2.0 0.7 -1.9 ..Russian Federation 4.1 8.3 4.8 2.5 -1.1 0.9 -2.2 2.0 0.6 0.3 0.3 -0.1Turkey .. 12.4 9.7 2.5 3.1 3.0 4.0 .. 1.3 0.7 -3.9 ..Poland 6.3 10.8 7.1 1.8 -2.0 -1.0 7.5 9.8 3.2 0.4 -0.8 1.4Czech Republic 3.0 8.1 6.0 -0.8 -9.5 4.8 -0.7 .. -0.7 0.4 4.7 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 1.0 5.9 2.6 -0.4 -1.5 -0.6 3.8 .. 0.5 -0.6 -0.2 ..Brazil 2.4 10.6 0.4 -2.7 -0.4 3.6 3.7 .. 2.1 -2.4 0.0 ..Mexico 1.1 4.3 3.2 2.7 -1.7 -2.9 -1.4 .. 0.2 0.2 0.5 ..Argentina 2.3 9.2 5.8 -2.1 -0.6 1.4 8.0 1.7 -2.4 1.5 -0.7 1.9Colombia 1.9 4.2 5.0 -0.2 -6.9 -14.7 23.0 .. -1.3 4.5 -3.4 ..

Middle East and North Africa 2.2 1.9 -8.2 2.9 -10.8 2.8 2.7 .. -2.2 .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 0.1 7.9 6.3 4.0 -4.6 -12.2 20.1 .. -2.4 .. .. ..Iran 1.1 1.1 -0.6 -17.0 -16.5 19.5 0.7 .. 0.4 .. .. ..Egypt .. 10.0 -6.8 5.0 28.3 14.1 -24.8 .. -3.8 -3.4 .. ..Algeria 2.5 -2.8 0.0 -0.5 -14.9 2.3 4.2 .. 0.1 .. .. ..

South Asia 6.6 9.7 4.8 0.8 7.7 3.6 -10.0 .. -0.7 3.3 -0.3 ..India 7.3 9.7 4.8 0.7 7.7 3.3 -10.1 .. -0.7 3.3 -0.4 ..Pakistan 5.8 11.0 6.4 1.7 10.1 21.0 -11.2 .. 0.4 -0.6 2.2 ..Sri Lanka .. 15.1 8.0 -0.3 7.7 3.2 -0.3 .. -0.9 .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 0.8 4.9 0.6 1.5 -0.4 -2.2 7.6 .. -3.4 .. .. ..South Africa 0.8 4.5 2.7 2.5 8.3 -7.0 12.9 .. -3.2 4.9 -3.6 ..Nigeria 0.4 11.2 3.9 -1.2 -20.1 7.4 -10.0 .. -3.9 .. .. ..

Memo:OECD 0.3 7.6 2.2 0.6 -2.5 1.9 2.4 .. 0.0 0.5 0.1 ..Developing excl. China 4.0 7.3 2.1 0.8 5.2 1.4 -0.8 .. -0.1 0.4 -0.4 ..Developing oil exporters 3.0 0.9 1.9 3.5 -1.5 2.9 .. -1.2 1.0 -0.3 ..Dev. non-oil exporters 8.1 14.4 11.3 8.2 10.9 8.7 3.8 11.3 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.8

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/)

a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.

October 31, 2013

Weight Avg 2012 2013 20131995 1999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep

Real GDP

High - in come cou n tries 2.0 2.9 1.8 1.5 -0.1 1.0 2.3 .. .. .. .. ..Industrial countries 1.8 2.6 1.6 0.0 -0.4 1.1 2.4 .. .. .. .. ..

United States 2.1 2.5 1.8 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.5 .. .. .. .. ..Japan 0.5 4.7 -0.6 0.0 1.1 4.1 3.8 .. .. .. .. ..Euro Area 1.5 1.9 1.6 0.0 -2.3 -0.9 1.2 .. .. .. .. ..United Kingdom 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.0 -1.2 1.5 2.7 3.2 .. .. .. ..

Real merc h an dis e imports High - in come cou n tries 3.3 12.3 4.8 0.6 2.8 3.2 4.6 .. -2.4 4.7 -3.5 ..

Industrial countries 3.4 11.2 4.6 -0.1 1.1 1.9 6.6 .. -3.0 5.2 -3.5 ..United States 3.0 14.9 3.8 2.9 2.5 -2.5 11.3 .. -5.8 6.0 -3.6 ..Japan 2.3 10.5 4.3 4.1 -11.3 4.1 5.8 0.8 -4.6 4.3 -2.2 0.4Euro Area 3.3 8.1 4.7 -4.0 0.1 5.4 7.0 .. -1.0 5.0 -4.1 ..United Kingdom 2.8 10.7 0.6 2.9 -0.1 -8.8 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Other high income 3.4 11.2 4.6 -0.1 1.1 1.9 6.6 .. 0.5 2.1 -3.1 3.6Hong Kong (China) 3.0 18.7 4.3 1.2 22.4 -9.9 -0.3 4.7 -3.1 5.2 -3.6 3.7Singapore 2.3 14.6 1.5 3.3 17.8 -9.5 6.4 18.8 -6.6 10.0 -0.9 3.5Taiwan (China) 3.3 29.4 -3.0 -1.9 -0.2 29.4 -17.0 0.2 9.5 -6.9 1.6 5.8

I mport P rices High - in come cou n tries 3.5 5.8 12.3 -1.5 5.1 -1.9 -9.6 .. 1.0 0.1 -0.2 ..

Industrial countries 3.1 5.7 12.3 -2.0 5.5 -1.3 -10.3 .. 1.0 0.2 -0.2 ..United States 2.4 6.9 10.9 0.3 4.2 -1.4 -8.1 5.6 0.6 0.6 0.1 ..Japan 4.7 14.3 18.3 -0.4 1.6 -8.1 -17.3 0.5 1.0 -0.2 0.4 0.2Euro Area 3.5 3.2 11.9 -3.5 7.8 1.6 -9.8 .. 1.4 -0.1 -0.5 ..United Kingdom 1.6 4.5 13.1 -1.5 12.1 -3.5 -11.7 .. .. .. .. ..

Other high income 3.1 5.7 12.3 -2.0 5.5 -1.3 -10.3 .. 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1Hong Kong (China) 2.4 5.1 7.4 3.2 1.5 -2.5 -1.6 -0.6 -0.2 0.4 0.0 -1.0Singapore 4.7 10.5 15.8 0.7 4.1 -3.7 -12.9 1.3 2.0 -1.7 0.0 1.1Taiwan (China) 3.5 12.2 15.3 -1.9 1.6 -9.5 -12.1 2.7 1.4 -0.2 0.2 0.5

Real effectiv e ex ch an ge rates a

Euro Area 33.5 1.1 -6.0 1.7 -4.4 -2.7 2.1 3.2 7.5 1.6 -0.2 2.1 0.1United States 14.4 -0.9 -3.9 -4.9 3.0 -0.2 1.2 0.5 1.5 0.4 0.7 -0.6 -0.1Japan 7.4 -0.2 1.2 1.7 -1.2 -7.5 -17.1 -21.3 -22.5 4.1 -2.4 1.3 -1.9United Kingdom 5.4 -1.4 3.6 1.5 5.2 5.3 0.2 -1.8 -2.4 0.2 -1.1 1.1 2.8Canada 3.5 1.8 10.2 2.0 -0.3 2.6 -1.0 -1.6 -4.6 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5 -0.1Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -3.0 -3.8 -4.2 3.8 2.0 2.5 3.9 3.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 1.0Korea, Rep. 2.5 -0.1 8.5 2.6 -0.4 4.8 5.3 4.6 5.6 -2.3 1.7 0.4 3.3Singapore 2.3 -0.7 3.4 5.5 4.6 7.6 5.9 2.9 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 1.1Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.5 3.7 0.2 -1.6 0.2 0.7 0.5 2.1 -0.5 0.5 -0.3 0.7Switzerland 1.7 0.1 5.8 9.8 -3.1 -2.1 -2.9 -2.8 -1.2 1.3 -0.5 0.5 0.0

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change)

a/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.

October 31, 2013

Average 2013 20131999-08 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep

Policy RatesUnited States 3.44 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12Japan 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30Euro Area .. 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00United Kingdom 4.80 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

Ten year bon dUnited States 4.70 3.65 3.24 3.20 2.77 0.75 0.70 0.72 0.76 2.29 2.56 2.73 2.80Japan 1.49 1.49 1.34 1.17 1.12 2.22 2.76 2.87 3.20 0.84 0.82 0.75 0.72Euro Area .. 4.36 4.03 3.79 4.31 1.82 2.02 1.93 2.74 3.07 3.10 3.10 3.41United Kingdom 4.77 4.49 3.66 3.58 3.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.21 2.54 2.78 2.89

Spreads (Bas is poin ts ) b , c

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 483 296 323 329 272 269 297 331 331 323 335 337East Asia and Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..China 82 126 77 193 218 156 146 167 173 195 178 171 169Indonesia .. 481 218 225 228 184 197 230 317 270 280 332 340Phillippines .. 340 206 200 177 124 138 150 173 171 160 178 180Malaysia 129 230 140 145 152 109 112 133 151 158 145 154 153

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 262 443 229 259 255 184 177 203 225 231 221 227 228Turkey 404 367 221 260 281 197 195 208 275 237 247 290 287Poland 99 222 156 210 192 122 121 133 148 149 142 155 147

Latin America and Caribbean 522 522 345 353 345 308 303 334 364 371 361 365 364Brazil 551 306 202 195 183 148 162 197 237 234 233 243 235Mexico 206 302 187 186 188 161 167 183 204 213 202 206 203Argentina 2920 1198 690 687 989 1041 1127 1200 1092 1204 1141 1068 1069Colombia 370 329 189 168 148 117 129 149 178 180 170 183 181

Middle East and North Africa .. 578 346 369 455 438 415 463 444 475 440 435 456Egypt .. 134 173 371 502 427 509 623 622 663 646 557 533

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Pakistan .. 1186 624 922 1067 828 903 753 666 663 668 667 615Sri Lanka .. 1066 369 358 414 331 352 383 441 404 422 496 428

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 172 301 167 195 206 176 190 213 272 256 278 281 266

Gros s in flow s e

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 839 492 455 530 171.1 135.5 161.2 115.0 28.6 35.6 26.1 53.4East Asia and Pacific .. 241 144 116 140 37.5 52.4 68.7 34.9 15.0 9.8 5.6 19.5Europe and Central Asia .. 162 105 115 159 65.8 22.3 24.9 10.4 2.7 1.2 3.0 6.2Latin America and Carribean .. 303 161 154 166 46.5 38.7 42.3 53.4 5.3 17.8 13.7 21.9Middle East and North Africa .. 18 13 6 6 3.2 0.3 7.1 0.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.3South Asia .. 84 53 33 36 12.3 14.1 9.8 3.1 1.5 1.2 0.4 1.5Sub-Saharan Africa .. 32 15 30 23 5.8 7.8 8.5 12.8 2.4 5.3 3.3 4.1

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of daily figures. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of

monthly figures.

b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.

c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.

d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.

e/In billions of US dollars.

October 31, 2013

Weightsb Average 2012 2013 2013

1990 2000-09 2010 2011 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep

Energy .. .. 144.7 188.2 187.4 182.0 187.9 178.8 189.9 178.7 186.5 191.0 192.1

Coal, Australia .. 10.7 207.8 255.0 202.4 182.4 195.1 180.7 162.3 173.8 162.2 161.6 163.0

Crude o il, average .. 13.1 148.0 194.8 196.7 190.9 196.8 186.0 201.1 186.8 197.1 202.6 203.7

Natural gas , Europe .. 15.1 131.0 166.2 181.3 185.5 187.1 195.4 183.6 188.4 183.4 184.0 183.5

N o n-energy 100.0 .. 173.9 209.9 190.0 186.9 185.9 175.6 167.6 173.9 171.5 171.1 160.2

A griculture 69.1 .. 170.4 209.0 194.0 191.1 185.5 180.2 168.9 180.6 176.4 172.8 157.7

B everages 16.9 .. 182.1 208.2 166.2 160.8 151.7 150.1 148.9 145.6 147.1 149.5 150.2

Cocoa 3.9 9.8 203.7 193.7 155.5 159.3 143.6 150.0 160.5 148.5 150.1 161.5 170.1

Coffee, arabica 8.0 3.3 170.6 236.0 162.3 141.0 132.5 126.3 117.8 120.4 120.5 117.7 115.2

Coffee, robusta 2.8 1.0 155.8 216.0 203.4 197.0 204.4 192.3 182.6 179.6 188.3 186.0 173.6

F o o d 29.4 .. 169.6 210.1 211.6 210.7 203.8 197.5 181.5 199.5 194.5 187.6 162.4

F ats and o ils 10.1 .. 184.5 222.7 230.0 221.9 214.0 205.5 207.2 211.0 206.9 202.8 211.7

Palm o il 2.3 4.6 213.4 266.6 236.8 191.7 202.0 201.5 196.0 203.8 197.4 196.4 194.3

Soybean meal 4.1 10.4 176.5 185.6 244.5 273.7 247.7 246.5 257.3 260.3 262.6 245.4 264.0

Soybeans 2.0 8.0 163.7 196.8 215.3 220.0 206.2 184.0 192.0 190.8 185.3 187.8 202.8

Grains 6.9 .. 171.8 238.5 244.2 258.9 248.0 238.7 180.0 239.7 228.2 207.3 104.4

M aize 1.7 6.3 188.4 295.6 302.4 321.4 309.1 295.2 175.1 302.4 283.3 241.9 0.0

Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.9 8.4 170.8 189.7 196.7 195.1 196.3 189.2 166.7 183.1 177.8 167.2 155.1

Wheat, US, HRW 1.9 7.2 146.8 207.6 205.6 233.4 211.0 206.0 200.7 205.7 199.9 200.4 201.8

Other fo o d 12.4 .. 148.2 167.8 157.9 152.4 150.1 149.5 149.0 148.0 147.7 149.6 149.8

Bananas, US 2.3 8.5 144.0 160.6 163.2 156.7 154.2 150.5 154.9 150.9 153.1 156.0 155.4

Sugar, world 7.5 4.2 215.4 263.0 217.9 198.8 187.6 177.1 172.9 172.9 170.3 172.3 176.0

R aw materials 22.8 .. 166.3 206.7 165.3 158.9 158.5 153.4 148.6 152.5 147.2 148.7 150.0

Cotton ("A" Index) 5.9 1.7 187.6 273.5 161.6 148.7 162.8 167.9 166.3 168.6 167.8 168.0 163.2

Rubber, Singapore 4.8 11.8 245.6 324.1 227.0 208.1 212.1 195.2 174.1 188.9 172.3 172.6 177.3

Sawnwood, M alaysia 2.9 3.0 128.6 142.5 132.9 132.6 128.2 127.0 128.3 128.1 125.5 128.2 131.2

F ert ilizers 2.7 .. 187.2 267.0 259.2 249.9 240.8 227.1 204.7 222.0 217.6 203.9 192.7

Triple superphosphate 0.9 5.2 189.5 267.2 229.3 224.4 215.9 211.4 181.7 208.5 202.5 177.4 165.0

M etals and minerals 28.2 .. 179.6 205.5 174.0 171.1 180.4 160.4 160.6 154.8 156.2 163.9 161.8

Aluminum 7.9 2.0 114.5 126.5 106.6 105.5 105.4 96.7 93.9 95.6 93.2 95.7 92.8

Copper 9.3 12.6 204.8 240.0 216.4 215.1 215.2 194.7 192.6 190.3 187.7 195.5 194.6

Gold .. 13.3 275.3 352.8 375.3 386.1 366.6 318.1 298.7 302.0 289.0 303.9 303.2

Nickel 2.2 9.3 147.9 155.4 119.0 115.2 117.3 101.5 94.7 96.9 93.3 97.1 93.6

M emo:C rude Oil (US$ ) .. 13.1 79.0 104.0 105.0 101.9 105.1 99.3 107.4 99.7 105.3 108.2 108.8

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.

October 31, 2013


Ex port v alu esDev elopin g cou n tries 13.3 29.3 21.6 3.5 17.2 15.2 -13.5 .. -3.1 3.4 0.3 ..

East Asia and Pacific 15.1 30.9 19.6 6.4 19.5 26.6 -19.4 -6.5 -4.1 2.3 1.8 -2.8China 19.5 31.6 20.1 8.1 19.6 34.3 -22.7 -5.1 -4.2 2.4 3.1 -2.4Indonesia 9.0 35.8 28.9 -6.4 6.6 7.1 -15.9 .. -3.8 1.6 -13.6 ..Thailand 10.4 26.9 15.0 3.1 17.9 0.6 -12.9 -9.2 -4.1 0.9 2.7 -6.3

Europe and Central Asia 14.0 18.4 25.4 1.3 5.0 14.5 -7.2 .. -1.3 4.6 -4.5 ..Russian Federation 15.8 32.7 31.0 2.7 18.8 -9.7 -11.1 .. 5.2 4.9 -3.0 ..Turkey 14.0 11.1 18.7 13.2 -11.1 2.0 -11.3 .. -5.3 3.7 -7.6 ..Poland 17.2 17.0 18.3 -3.9 6.7 45.5 -8.4 .. 6.9 4.4 -4.2 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 8.0 28.2 23.2 2.0 11.5 -9.7 8.1 2.1 -0.6 3.1 -3.3 3.6Brazil 11.5 31.6 27.0 -4.7 14.8 -7.1 9.9 -14.0 1.3 -0.6 -5.3 5.7Mexico 7.0 29.8 17.2 6.2 12.0 -8.6 10.6 10.4 -0.5 6.8 -5.2 3.4Argentina 8.0 21.8 23.2 -3.2 5.3 -3.2 22.8 -14.5 -5.0 3.5 -5.7 -1.5

Middle East and North Africa 18.5 26.6 17.0 1.4 36.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 18.3 34.7 42.3 10.8 17.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Iran 21.8 33.3 29.9 -20.2 127.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 21.4 14.4 15.0 -3.3 7.4 2.2 -30.7 .. 3.0 .. .. ..

South Asia 14.3 33.5 32.5 -3.2 7.7 22.8 -20.6 54.3 -3.4 11.0 4.1 1.9India 16.5 37.0 33.2 -3.0 6.7 25.7 -24.5 55.3 -4.7 12.5 4.7 0.2Pakistan 7.5 21.7 19.2 -2.6 -2.8 -14.6 7.7 59.9 -0.6 2.3 1.9 23.7Bangladesh 13.4 14.9 40.1 -3.9 30.0 27.1 2.9 .. 5.8 3.2 -1.1 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 13.1 35.3 22.6 -3.3 20.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 9.0 30.1 19.0 -9.4 10.8 1.5 1.8 .. -6.5 8.4 -2.4 ..Nigeria 20.7 49.0 36.5 -0.1 13.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Ex port prices b,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries 4.7 9.0 12.1 -2.2 3.9 -6.6 -4.5 .. -0.2 0.1 0.2 ..East Asia and Pacific 2.9 5.1 9.5 -2.4 2.6 -5.8 -1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1

China 1.7 3.4 8.8 -2.2 1.7 -4.4 -2.6 1.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0Indonesia 7.4 15.8 16.6 -7.2 11.6 -18.8 -1.2 -0.5 0.2 -1.1 0.6 ..Thailand 2.8 9.2 5.7 0.6 1.5 -1.2 -2.5 -2.3 0.4 0.1 -0.8 -1.0

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 5.9 12.1 -3.3 2.4 0.7 -4.9 .. -0.1 -0.3 0.0 ..Russian Federation 9.3 18.1 24.4 -1.6 5.6 -11.8 -12.7 27.8 3.6 1.5 2.0 ..Turkey 3.3 0.1 11.5 -2.8 -5.4 16.6 -7.4 -0.9 0.6 -1.2 0.8 ..Poland 2.1 -8.7 9.2 -11.5 -21.4 42.6 -7.5 -5.7 -0.3 -1.0 -0.3 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 4.7 15.7 15.8 -4.6 4.8 -7.2 -13.5 4.6 -0.8 0.7 0.7 -0.8Brazil 4.6 18.7 16.8 -6.7 4.8 -6.1 -17.6 8.0 -1.5 1.7 0.9 -0.5Mexico 4.0 12.2 14.4 -2.6 11.1 -3.5 -5.5 0.9 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2 0.1Argentina -1.8 3.1 12.4 -6.7 -14.7 -19.4 -14.4 -4.4 -1.0 1.6 -0.3 -5.7

Middle East and North Africa 11.9 16.2 16.1 20.1 -1.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 19.5 35.8 34.0 6.6 59.1 -8.0 .. .. .. .. .. ..Iran 13.5 24.5 27.9 0.1 5.5 5.4 .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 5.3 7.5 16.7 -0.4 1.4 -7.6 1.6 .. 0.9 .. .. ..

South Asia 2.1 8.4 11.2 -3.9 4.7 -4.8 -5.7 1.0 -1.1 0.5 1.0 -0.3

India 2.5 8.4 11.3 -4.5 5.5 -6.0 -6.2 2.4 -1.2 0.8 1.2 -0.3Pakistan 0.4 13.4 18.3 0.5 1.3 11.4 -5.4 -14.9 -1.1 -1.6 -1.1 -1.4Bangladesh 1.6 3.3 8.5 -2.1 -1.1 -5.5 1.6 1.5 0.1 0.5 -0.4 ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 9.5 22.7 23.6 -3.2 9.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 8.6 26.4 18.3 -7.6 -8.3 9.7 -0.3 -21.5 -4.8 -1.6 0.1 ..

Nigeria 14.3 23.6 29.0 0.5 28.7 10.3 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries ' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis./b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

October 31, 2013


I mport v alu esDev elopin g cou n tries 12.9 29.7 24.2 4.6 19.7 12.6 -10.3 .. -3.9 7.0 -5.1 ..

East Asia and Pacific 16.0 37.1 24.5 5.6 24.3 18.3 -14.9 4.7 -3.5 7.3 -4.6 1.7China 20.3 39.0 25.2 4.7 21.9 20.0 -15.9 14.0 -3.4 9.2 -4.0 2.3Indonesia 15.2 40.4 30.8 8.2 50.1 -7.0 -10.4 .. -3.9 5.5 -20.1 ..Thailand 12.2 37.1 25.0 9.2 45.7 8.2 -18.9 -27.3 -2.9 -2.1 -2.9 -3.3

Europe and Central Asia 12.9 21.7 26.1 0.1 1.8 20.1 -0.3 .. -2.9 5.8 -9.0 ..Russian Federation 14.2 32.7 30.7 5.6 13.9 23.5 -21.5 .. 8.4 1.4 -8.6 ..Turkey 13.4 31.6 30.1 -1.6 12.3 25.1 8.4 .. -8.0 5.9 -12.9 ..Poland 12.5 19.1 17.6 -6.7 16.7 30.2 -25.0 .. 3.8 7.9 -6.6 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 7.4 28.5 21.4 3.4 27.5 6.4 -0.9 -7.2 -5.6 11.1 -8.6 -0.5Brazil 9.6 42.1 24.6 -1.0 46.0 35.2 -6.4 -9.3 -5.4 17.6 -17.0 -1.4Mexico 6.7 28.5 16.5 5.7 23.8 -3.4 11.0 -6.4 -4.0 9.3 -7.6 1.1Argentina 8.6 45.9 31.1 -7.4 16.8 21.4 34.6 -24.6 -10.3 5.9 -2.1 -5.9

Middle East and North Africa 12.7 13.6 16.7 10.0 3.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 11.8 12.6 23.3 18.4 10.3 26.6 -6.1 .. -1.2 -6.6 .. ..Iran 13.0 33.4 44.4 -2.9 -37.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 12.9 17.8 11.3 18.1 9.1 -6.6 -33.6 .. 11.8 .. .. ..

South Asia 16.9 34.0 31.5 4.0 25.4 3.3 -19.2 -23.7 0.4 2.2 -7.4 ..India 19.2 36.4 32.4 5.6 30.2 -3.3 -23.8 -26.2 0.2 2.8 -9.0 ..Pakistan 13.5 19.4 16.4 0.6 -5.0 12.7 13.5 -8.1 1.7 -4.3 9.0 ..Bangladesh 10.8 27.7 29.9 -5.4 -21.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 12.6 14.0 23.1 3.8 11.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 10.3 23.8 24.5 1.6 3.8 -3.3 11.9 .. 8.2 -2.9 .. ..Nigeria 20.2 9.8 24.1 -5.6 65.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

I mport prices b , c

Dev elopin g cou n tries 3.8 8.8 11.5 -3.0 3.6 -7.1 -8.7 .. 0.1 -0.2 0.5 ..East Asia and Pacific 4.3 8.2 11.9 -3.0 3.8 -8.8 -5.9 9.1 0.8 0.5 0.9 0.6

China 3.2 10.8 13.0 -4.1 4.6 -7.4 -6.9 10.1 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.5Indonesia 2.4 4.6 11.2 -2.7 0.7 -7.8 -0.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 -0.4 ..Thailand 2.0 -0.1 6.0 3.5 -2.4 -12.0 -6.1 11.8 2.0 -0.8 2.2 1.5

Europe and Central Asia -0.3 6.3 7.3 -7.2 3.9 0.6 -18.8 .. -1.0 -0.5 -0.9 ..Russian Federation 2.0 4.4 9.5 -2.3 2.5 -10.6 2.5 1.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 ..Turkey -7.6 11.6 3.4 -9.4 13.8 9.8 -29.7 -21.4 -3.7 -2.0 -2.8 ..Poland 2.1 -3.3 9.6 -12.3 -9.6 18.6 -13.4 9.0 1.7 4.5 -5.2 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 1.7 6.7 11.1 -3.8 0.9 -2.2 -8.9 -5.9 -1.7 -1.6 -0.7 5.8Brazil 1.7 16.7 20.1 -13.3 8.2 5.0 -19.9 -22.2 -5.3 -6.0 -3.0 17.5Mexico 2.7 4.3 7.3 1.0 1.0 -2.2 -2.7 0.0 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.7Argentina -5.4 -11.0 1.7 -10.3 -16.2 4.5 -5.3 15.9 -0.1 5.9 0.0 -0.3

Middle East and North Africa 3.6 4.5 7.8 2.0 4.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.2 4.5 10.1 -2.6 0.9 -8.2 0.5 1.8 -0.1 0.4 .. ..Iran 2.6 3.9 10.9 -2.2 4.0 -13.3 .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt 2.7 4.9 13.6 -2.2 4.3 -12.0 -0.5 .. -0.2 .. .. ..

South Asia 7.2 12.4 19.1 -0.8 7.2 -10.8 -11.8 8.4 1.6 0.0 0.8 0.3

India 5.6 13.4 19.0 -0.8 4.9 -10.4 -12.7 10.2 2.0 0.3 0.9 0.1Pakistan 7.8 13.9 23.8 4.7 7.9 4.0 -6.3 -10.8 -0.5 -3.9 0.6 0.6Bangladesh 2.3 5.0 12.6 -4.3 2.5 -15.5 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 6.0 6.8 11.0 -2.0 2.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 2.6 6.7 11.9 -1.5 3.1 -11.3 -3.9 -1.7 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 ..Nigeria 1.9 3.1 9.6 -2.2 3.6 -8.4 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries ' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis./b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

October 31, 2013

US$ bn. % GDP 2012 2013 2013

2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep

World -168.7 -0.3 -105.1 -63.2 -138.6 -195.7 -227.6 -129.3 -24.5 .. 174.0 -330.1 207.2 ..

High - in come cou n tries a -418.9 -1.0 -74.8 -10.4 37.6 46.0 36.9 105.9 249.1 .. 407.2 108.0 333.3 ..Industrial countries -499.8 -1.2 -324.0 -419.1 -576.1 -578.4 -583.0 -435.4 -347.6 .. -206.8 -541.8 -313.0 ..

United States -706.1 -5.0 -549.8 -690.7 -786.6 -791.6 -778.9 -753.2 -749.4 .. -646.2 -786.3 -708.0 ..Japan 183.2 3.7 27.9 75.3 -32.6 -87.0 -109.0 -108.7 -90.3 -121.3 -74.4 -129.4 -92.8 -141.7Euro Area -19.6 -0.2 53.6 34.7 28.1 145.5 153.3 222.5 263.0 .. 265.2 215.3 254.9 ..United Kingdom -73.6 -2.8 -130.4 -154.0 -161.8 -175.3 -179.6 -169.3 .. .. .. .. .. ..

Other high income 80.9 4.2 -324.0 -419.1 -576.1 -578.4 -583.0 -435.4 -347.6 .. 407.2 108.0 333.3 ..Hong Kong (China) 30.5 12.8 -28.9 -43.1 -54.3 -61.5 -67.0 -59.6 -66.2 -64.5 -69.0 -60.0 -69.4 -64.1Singapore 26.9 13.9 23.74 40.63 43.74 28.96 23.57 29.08 47.37 30.98 48.94 38.85 25.29 28.79Taiwan (China) 24.9 6.0 28.7 22.5 26.0 30.7 36.3 18.7 40.2 41.7 41.5 41.9 45.9 37.4

Dev elopin g cou n tries 293.5 1.8 -30.6 -53.2 -177.5 -243.6 -266.9 -243.1 -287.4 .. -246.0 -457.1 -136.8 ..East Asia and Pacific 469.7 9.6 254.9 240.9 190.1 221.3 242.9 306.8 253.4 171.1 220.8 91.7 275.8 145.7

China 426.1 11.5 195.0 182.6 147.6 218.8 255.3 330.6 271.1 180.7 233.1 115.8 261.4 165.0Indonesia 0.6 0.1 19.6 22.2 26.0 -1.7 -12.3 -5.6 -8.3 .. -7.5 -14.8 -0.1 ..Thailand -0.1 0.0 18.9 10.4 -6.5 -20.7 -27.7 -32.6 -26.9 -12.8 -26.4 -19.3 -6.3 -12.9Malaysia 38.9 19.7 33.7 34.3 40.6 30.7 34.0 14.6 14.6 .. 20.4 19.3 21.5 ..

Europe and Central Asia .. .. -106.1 -139.9 -179.1 -173.4 -171.2 -185.4 -194.4 .. -181.9 -198.2 -157.3 ..Russian Federation 102.4 6.0 112.5 149.3 196.6 192.7 190.6 158.5 164.7 .. 172.1 192.6 206.2 ..Turkey -41.3 -5.7 -38.4 -71.5 -105.9 -84.3 -85.6 -98.6 -108.3 .. -95.3 -104.1 -82.4 ..Poland -29.0 -5.6 -13.1 -18.3 -20.6 -13.9 -11.7 -7.0 3.1 .. 4.6 -1.9 3.3 ..Czech Republic -6.6 -3.0 8.0 6.6 10.7 15.5 17.1 15.3 18.8 .. 18.7 19.7 20.2 ..

Latin America and Caribbean -21.6 -0.5 -36.9 -49.4 -47.0 -60.3 -73.0 -111.1 -91.6 -68.5 -44.1 -119.5 -61.2 -24.8Brazil -28.2 -1.7 25.3 19.8 29.4 19.8 14.5 -7.8 1.9 -1.3 12.8 -28.7 4.3 20.4Mexico -15.8 -1.6 -4.7 -3.1 -1.5 0.0 -4.7 -9.8 -10.4 5.4 4.9 -4.0 5.8 14.4Argentina 7.6 2.6 17.1 11.5 9.7 12.6 12.4 8.3 6.9 9.0 11.5 10.2 6.8 10.0Colombia -6.7 -3.0 0.0 -0.7 2.8 1.0 2.2 -2.6 0.0 .. 7.3 -3.0 2.1 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. -11.8 20.9 25.5 -5.4 -1.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 132.9 27.3 80.7 128.9 203.0 215.2 205.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Iran 0.0 0.0 29.5 39.3 41.3 16.4 11.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Egypt -1.3 -0.8 -21.7 -26.4 -28.4 -40.0 -36.3 -35.0 -31.3 .. -35.4 .. .. ..Algeria 0.04 0.03 4.5 16.1 26.3 5.7 1.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia .. .. -117.2 -158.1 -205.0 -239.6 -265.1 -251.6 -240.1 -161.2 -215.6 -180.1 -176.6 -126.8India .. .. -91.6 -123.8 -162.2 -197.1 -224.6 -203.0 -190.3 -121.5 -170.5 -136.8 -134.8 -92.7Pakistan -15.7 -9.8 -14.3 -16.6 -18.8 -19.7 -18.9 -21.2 -22.2 -18.2 -20.4 -20.6 -18.1 -16.0Bangladesh .. .. -5.3 -8.6 -9.5 -8.6 -6.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -29.9 -3.0 -13.5 33.2 39.2 13.9 0.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa -21.0 -7.5 -2.2 1.2 -3.0 -13.6 -15.4 -14.3 -16.8 .. -17.1 -18.3 -17.3 ..Nigeria 20.3 9.3 9.0 30.3 47.3 50.5 44.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Memo:OECD .. .. -346.7 -470.6 -663.3 -650.7 -662.8 -536.6 -454.4 .. -283.4 -634.8 -374.4 ..Developing excl. China .. .. -225.9 -236.0 -325.0 -463.0 -523.1 -563.7 -537.6 .. -444.9 -515.1 -358.0 ..Developing oil exporters 191.2 .. 92.0 184.0 236.9 172.5 152.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing non-oil exporters .. .. -123.3 -238.0 -415.5 -417.0 -420.7 -375.9 -420.0 -430.9 -411.8 -585.0 -327.5 -380.2

CAB

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

a/ Seasonally adjusted

October 31, 2013

Weights Average 2012 2013 20131995 2000-09 2010 2011 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep

World 100.0 94.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High - in come cou n tries 78.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Industrial countries 70.6 .. 9.2 5.7 -1.4 2.4 -0.9 -3.4 -4.2 -0.4 -0.1 1.2 1.6

United States (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Japan 7.4 112.0 6.7 10.1 -0.1 -4.9 -14.0 -18.8 -20.5 3.7 -2.3 2.0 -1.5Euro Area 29.5 .. -4.7 5.0 -7.6 .. .. .. .. 1.6 -0.8 1.8 0.3United Kingdom 5.6 0.6 -0.9 3.8 -1.1 2.2 -1.3 -2.9 -1.9 1.2 -2.0 2.2 2.3

Other high income 7.7 101.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) 3.7 7.8 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Singapore 2.3 1.6 6.7 8.4 0.6 5.3 2.1 1.2 -1.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.3 0.7Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.0 4.9 7.2 -0.6 3.8 0.7 -0.7 0.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 1.0

Dev elopin g cou n tries 21.7 115.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..East Asia and Pacific 7.5 100.4 8.1 0.2 -4.7 -4.5 -4.4 -3.7 -8.1 -0.9 -1.7 -3.0 -5.1

China 2.7 7.9 0.9 4.7 2.5 1.8 1.4 2.9 3.7 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0Indonesia 1.1 9360.6 14.3 3.6 -6.4 -6.7 -6.4 -5.2 -10.8 -1.2 -2.0 -4.4 -7.0Thailand 1.3 38.9 8.2 4.1 -1.9 1.1 4.0 4.7 -0.4 -3.4 -1.0 -1.5 -0.3Malaysia 1.4 3.7 9.4 5.3 -0.9 3.1 -0.7 1.4 -3.7 -3.9 -1.5 -2.6 0.8

Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.5 -5.7 -32.8 -32.4 -1.4 -4.6 -5.6 -6.0 -0.5 -1.4 -0.5 -1.3Russian Federation 1.5 28.6 4.6 3.3 -5.3 0.5 -0.9 -1.9 -2.6 -3.2 -1.2 -0.8 1.4Turkey .. 1.3 3.2 -10.3 -6.7 2.5 0.6 -1.9 -8.5 -3.8 -1.7 -1.5 -2.7Poland 0.5 3.5 3.4 1.8 -8.9 3.6 2.5 3.2 3.1 -0.9 -0.5 2.8 0.1Czech Republic 0.5 26.6 -0.2 8.0 -9.6 -3.2 -1.2 -0.4 2.7 2.0 -1.4 2.3 0.4

Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 142.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Brazil 1.1 2.3 13.6 5.1 -14.3 -12.6 -11.4 -5.3 -11.3 -6.3 -3.5 -3.8 3.2Mexico 1.7 10.8 6.9 1.6 -5.5 5.4 2.7 8.3 1.9 -5.1 1.6 -1.2 -1.2Argentina 0.4 2.7 -4.7 -5.2 -9.3 -11.4 -13.4 -15.1 -17.5 -1.8 -2.0 -2.6 -2.7Colombia 0.3 2329.3 13.6 2.8 2.8 6.4 0.4 -4.2 -5.7 -3.0 0.5 -0.2 -0.7

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 163.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Iran 0.4 .. -4.1 3.8 -11.6 -10.6 -2.7 0.0 -49.5 0.0 -47.4 -6.0 0.1Egypt 0.3 5.2 -1.4 -5.2 -2.1 -2.2 -9.8 -13.0 -12.7 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 1.2Algeria 0.3 73.4 -1.8 1.1 -5.9 -6.1 -4.6 -4.4 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -1.3 -1.5

South Asia 1.2 107.4 3.8 -2.0 -11.7 -6.8 -6.4 -2.9 -9.4 -4.5 -2.2 -4.1 -1.4India 0.8 45.5 5.9 -2.0 -12.6 -6.2 -7.2 -3.3 -11.3 -5.8 -2.4 -4.9 -1.4Pakistan 0.2 62.4 -4.1 -1.3 -7.5 -8.8 -7.5 -6.5 -8.1 -0.3 -1.8 -2.4 -2.2Bangladesh 0.1 62.3 -0.8 -6.0 -9.5 -4.9 4.7 5.1 5.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0Sri Lanka 0.1 99.8 1.7 2.2 -13.4 -13.5 -6.1 2.6 0.2 -1.4 -2.4 -0.6 -0.3

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 117.9 -6.9 -7.5 -2.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.4South Africa 0.6 7.7 15.1 0.8 -11.6 -6.8 -13.4 -14.4 -17.3 -6.4 0.9 -1.5 0.9Nigeria 0.3 124.9 -0.9 -3.1 -1.8 1.9 1.0 0.4 -1.3 -1.4 -0.5 0.0 -0.6

Memo:OECD 73.7 .. 9.0 5.6 -1.5 2.6 -0.6 -3.0 -4.1 -0.6 -0.1 1.0 1.5Developing excl. China 19.0 118.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing oil exporters 2.8 171.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 108.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A .8 Ex ch an ge Rates (USD/L CU)(annual percent change except m o nthly data which is change o ver prev io us m o nth a/)

October 31, 2013


World 2.6 3.0 4.3 3.3 3.5 3.5 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.5

High - in come cou n tries 2.1 1.7 2.8 2.0 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.1Industrial countries 1.9 1.5 2.5 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.1

United States 2.5 1.6 3.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.6 ..Japan -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.0Euro Area 2.0 1.5 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.0United Kindgom 1.8 3.3 4.5 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7

Other high income 1.9 1.5 2.5 1.8 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.1Hong Kong (China) -0.5 2.3 5.3 4.1 3.8 3.6 4.0 5.4 4.1 6.9 4.6 4.7Singapore 1.4 2.8 5.2 4.6 4.0 4.0 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.6Taiwan (China) 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.0 0.6 0.1 -0.8 0.9

Dev elopin g cou n tries 3.4 5.2 6.7 5.3 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.3East Asia and Pacific 1.9 3.4 5.4 2.8 3.0 3.2 2.4 3.6 2.9 4.0 3.0 4.7

China 1.6 3.3 5.4 2.6 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.0Indonesia 9.5 5.1 5.4 4.3 4.5 5.3 5.6 8.6 5.9 8.6 8.8 8.4Thailand 2.3 3.3 3.8 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.3 1.7 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.4Malaysia 2.2 1.6 3.2 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.9 2.6

Europe and Central Asia 7.8 7.7 8.9 4.8 3.5 4.5 3.1 4.7 4.2 3.2 1.7Russian Federation 20.5 6.9 8.4 5.1 6.4 7.2 7.2 6.3 6.9 6.4 6.5 6.1Turkey 10.4 8.6 6.5 8.9 6.7 7.2 7.0 8.3 8.3 8.9 8.2 7.9Poland 3.9 2.7 4.2 3.7 3.0 1.6 0.8 1.4 0.6 1.4 1.4 1.4Czech Republic 2.7 1.4 1.9 3.3 2.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.0

Latin America and Caribbean 6.7 6.5 7.5 6.8 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.3 4.8 5.0 5.4 4.6Brazil 6.7 5.0 6.6 5.4 5.6 6.3 6.6 6.1 6.7 6.3 6.1 5.9Mexico 6.2 4.2 3.4 4.1 4.1 3.7 4.5 3.4 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.4Argentina 7.7 10.5 9.8 10.0 10.6 10.8 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.5 10.5Colombia 6.7 2.3 3.4 3.2 2.7 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2

Middle East and North Africa 7.2 7.0 11.3 15.7 6.0 7.4 7.2 5.7 7.7 5.8 4.2 5.6Saudi Arabia 1.8 5.3 5.8 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.5 ..Iran 15.7 10.2 20.6 27.3 35.6 41.0 42.5 39.0 41.0 42.9 .. ..Algeria 3.2 3.9 4.5 8.9 9.1 5.8 3.7 3.1 4.4 3.5 3.3 ..

South Asia .. 11.9 9.8 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.2 7.5 8.1 7.9 8.0 7.3India .. 12.2 9.6 9.7 10.1 10.7 9.5 9.7 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.8Pakistan 20.3 12.9 11.9 9.7 7.5 7.3 5.6 8.1 5.8 8.3 8.6 7.4Bangladesh 5.9 8.1 10.3 6.5 6.5 7.3 8.2 7.5 8.1 7.9 7.4 7.1Sri Lanka 10.5 6.2 6.7 7.5 9.2 9.0 6.8 6.2 6.8 6.1 6.4 6.3

Sub-Saharan Africa 7.7 7.7 8.7 9.9 6.0 4.1 3.7 5.6 4.3 5.5 6.6 6.0South Africa 6.0 4.3 5.0 5.7 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.3 5.5 6.4 6.5 6.0Nigeria 11.7 13.7 10.8 12.2 12.0 8.9 8.8 8.3 8.4 8.7 8.4 7.9

Memo:OECD 2.1 1.7 2.7 2.1 2.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.3Developing excl. China 7.1 7.4 8.1 8.4 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.4Developing oil exporters 7.6 7.8 9.2 10.2 5.7 6.3 6.1 7.7 5.9 8.0 6.7 6.3Developing non-oil exporters 2.7 4.7 6.2 4.3 4.8 4.6 4.4 5.3 4.9 5.0 5.4 5.2

Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates.

October 31, 2013

Weights 2012 2013 20131995 2010 2011 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep

World 100.0High - in come cou n tries b 82.8 -1.45 -1.45 -1.45 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 80.6 -1.44 -1.44 -1.44 .. .. .. ..United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.08Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 1.00 1.25 0.88 0.75 0.75 0.58 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50United Kingdom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 0.50 0.50 0.50 6.50 7.50 8.50 9.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Other high income 2.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 3.13 3.13 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 1.15 1.15 1.15 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.31 0.32 0.35 0.33Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.93 1.93 1.93 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39

Dev elopin g cou n tries 17.2East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 7.18 7.18 7.18 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00Indonesia (Interbank 3m rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 4.92 4.93 4.98 6.32 5.15 5.80 6.19 6.98Thailand (Repurchase Rate) 0.6 1.50 3.00 2.94 2.75 2.75 2.63 2.50 .. 2.50 2.50 ..Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 4.48 5.48 6.48 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 10.87 10.87 10.87 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 17.05 17.05 17.05 5.61 5.47 5.57 7.21 6.20 6.83 7.39 7.42Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 5.88 5.88 5.88 4.51 3.75 2.95 2.38 2.71 2.43 2.36 2.36Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 3.49 3.49 3.49 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 12.45 12.45 12.45 7.28 7.25 7.63 8.62 8.00 8.33 8.55 9.00Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 7.88 7.88 7.88 4.34 4.17 3.81 3.82 3.82 3.89 3.89 3.68Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 11.43 11.43 11.43 13.39 13.29 14.44 15.71 15.03 15.36 15.64 16.11Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 9.68 9.68 9.68 5.30 4.90 4.09 4.02 3.96 3.96 4.04 4.07

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia (Interbank 3m rate) 0.4 2.89 2.89 2.89 0.98 0.98 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 ..Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 10.17 10.17 10.17 9.50 10.25 10.25 9.25 10.25 9.25 9.25 9.25Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 7.90 7.90 7.90 9.00 9.00 9.00 .. .. .. .. ..Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 10.63 10.63 10.63 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 ..Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 10.50 10.50 10.50 7.69 7.50 7.22 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 11.61 11.61 11.61 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 9.85 9.85 9.85 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).

October 31, 2013


World 91 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..High - in come cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..United States 89 100 112 122 126 134 143 146 144 147 145 146Japan 84 100 101 93 90 101 111 115 107 114 112 114Euro Area 99 100 111 94 93 98 88 89 83 84 86 90United Kindgom 88 100 108 107 118 125 130 139 126 130 135 141

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) .. 100 102 96 108 116 115 112 108 108 111 113Singapore 80 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Taiwan (China) 72 100 110 100 104 109 110 110 104 105 103 107

Dev elopin g cou n tries a, b 156 100 105 98 104 109 103 99 96 95 95 100East Asia and Pacificc 123 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 118 100 97 90 96 102 94 94 87 87 91 96Indonesia 207 100 117 117 136 145 149 122 136 132 121 111Thailand 188 100 125 139 176 198 197 177 182 184 172 176Malaysia 116 100 116 119 137 136 146 140 144 143 137 138

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 525 100 114 98 96 101 91 91 84 87 87 94Turkey 87 100 89 87 113 126 126 102 106 101 96 96Poland 168 100 107 86 94 97 91 93 88 85 92 91Czech Republic 354 100 103 86 80 73 65 63 61 57 61 64

Latin America and Caribbean 203 100 101 91 92 97 89 80 80 77 77 81Brazil 199 100 97 82 76 80 73 64 65 60 60 65Mexico 193 100 111 117 134 144 137 132 126 131 133 130Argentina 104 100 113 56 52 66 63 72 60 62 71 78

Middle East and North Africa .. 100 108 99 104 108 99 97 92 94 95 99Egypt 213 100 73 74 77 72 64 65 62 67 67 66

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India 198 100 94 81 91 94 90 81 84 84 76 78Pakistan 241 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh .. 100 78 56 62 61 57 58 64 62 59 59Sri Lanka 229 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 216 100 111 109 118 120 109 110 102 106 108 113

Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months.b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&Pc/ East Asia Pacific including South AsiaSource: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Exchange Composite Index; All Others are IFC/S&P Indices

developing trends: october 2013 - world...

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