Concept of D (Drivers) – P (Pressures) – S (State) –I (Impact) – R (Response) Framework as a tool forenvironmental management and policy

development

• Description of the DPSIR

• Examples of the DPSIR implementation – LOICZ program

Socio-Economic DRIVERS (t 1- n)•Urbanisation and Transport/Trade•Agriculture, Land Use Change,•Fisheries, Aquaculture,•Industrial and Tourism

Socio-Economic DRIVERS (t 1- n)•Urbanisation and Transport/Trade•Agriculture, Land Use Change,•Fisheries, Aquaculture,•Industrial and Tourism

Environmental PRESSURES (t 1- n)•Land Conversions and Reclamation.•Dredging, Oil/Gas Extraction.•Waste Disposal in coastal water.•Water Abstraction. Drainage network and •Estuarine and Coastline Engineering, •Dams, Barriers and Barrages.

Environmental PRESSURES (t 1- n)•Land Conversions and Reclamation.•Dredging, Oil/Gas Extraction.•Waste Disposal in coastal water.•Water Abstraction. Drainage network and •Estuarine and Coastline Engineering, •Dams, Barriers and Barrages.

Policy RESPONSE (t 1- n)Policy RESPONSE (t 1- n) Environmental STATE Change (t 1- n)Flux Changes of C, N, P, Toxins, Sediments and Water through Basins and Coastal Zones causing• Eutrophication/Pollution, Erosion• Loss of habitats and Biological Diversity,

Environmental STATE Change (t 1- n)Flux Changes of C, N, P, Toxins, Sediments and Water through Basins and Coastal Zones causing• Eutrophication/Pollution, Erosion• Loss of habitats and Biological Diversity,

IMPACTS (t 1 - n)Change in Ecosystem Processes and Functions leads to impacts on human welfare via changes in•productivity, •health, amenity and existence •value changes.

IMPACTS (t 1 - n)Change in Ecosystem Processes and Functions leads to impacts on human welfare via changes in•productivity, •health, amenity and existence •value changes.

Natural forcing:• Climate Change • Coastal ProcessesVariability

•Integrated Modelling, •Scaling•Scenario Building•Habitat assessment

LOICZ input: •Validation of Stake-holder Gains/Losses

•Validation of Response •Scenarios/Options•Decision Support

ICZM

take

s pl

ace

here

LOICZ Models:•Flux C, N, P, Sedim.•Geomorphologic change•Indicators for Loads, Environ. Functions

•Typology Database•Scaling Tools•Spatial coverage•Network links

The Global Coastal Ocean: A Narrow, Uneven, Chemically Reactive “Ribbon”

Most net biogeochemical reaction is thought to occur in the landward, estuarine, portion of the ribbon.

Most materials entering the ocean from land pass through this ribbon.

LAND

OCEAN

This ribbon is ~ 500,000 km long and averages about 50 km in width.

ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

Gas regulation

Climate regulation

Disturbance regulation

Water regulation

Water supply

Erosion control and sediment retention

Soil formation

Nutrient cycling

Waste treatment

Pollination

Biological control

Refugia

Food production

Raw materials

Genetic resources

Recreation

Cultural

ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONS

Regulation of atmospheric chemical composition.

Regulation of global temperature, precipitation, and other biologically mediatedclimatic processes at global, regional, or local levels. Capacitance, damping and integrity of ecosystem response to environmental fluctuations. Regulation of hydrological flows.

Storage and retention of water.

Retention of soil within an ecosystem.

Soil formation processes.

Storage, internal cycling, processing, and acquisition of nutrients.

Recovery of mobile nutrients and removal or breakdown of excess or xenic nutrients and compounds. Movement of floral gametes.

Trophic-dynamic regulations of populations.

Habitat for resident and transient populations.

That portion of gross primary production extractable as food.

That portion of gross primary production extractable as raw materials.

Sources of unique biological materials and products.

Providing opportunities for recreational activities.

Providing opportunities for non-commercial uses.

From: Costanza, R. R. d'Arge, R. de Groot, S. Farber, M. Grasso, B. Hannon, S. Naeem, K. Limburg, J. Paruelo, R.V. O'Neill,R. Raskin, P. Sutton, and M. van den Belt. 1997. The value of the world's ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature387:253-260

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Coastal Zone Change:Where, How Much, How Fast –

How do we assess and predict?

• Multiple human effects, but not spatially uniform

• Climate change shifts the ‘baseline’

• Space-for-time tradeoffs may help define time-courses and trajectories of change

• Some estimate of starting point or natural ‘equilibrium’ is needed

What are the mass balances of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus

How can knowledge of the processes and impacts of biogeochemical and socio-economic changes be applied to improve Integrated environmental and economic Management of the Coastal Areas, ICAM ?

How do changes in land use, climate and sea level alter the fluxes and retention of water and particulate matter in the coastal zone, and affect coastal morphodynamics?

How are humans altering these mass balances, and what are the consequences? What is the role of the coastal zone in

trace gas emissions (e.g., DMS, NOX)?

Is the coastal zone a sink or source of CO2?

Coastal Zone Systems

Atmosphere

Inland

Catchments&

BasinsCoastal Sea

Ocean

EstuariesWetlands

Coastal LagoonsMangroves

DeltasCoral ReefsSeagrassesAlgal bedsSoft bottom communities

Planktonic systemsPeople & Habitation

RiversUpwelling

Local

Regional

Global

SCALES

SCALES

MATERIAL FLUX MODELSBasins Coastal Seas Oceans

Typology

Horizontal fluxes

Vertical fluxes

Ecosystems & Habitats & People

LOICZ

LOICZ Approach to Horizontal Flow - II

Land Coastal sea Ocean

BasinsDynamics& Flux

BiogeochemicalFlux Models

GroundwaterGroundwater

ShelfMargins

Material flow and the human dimension in the coastal zone through alignment of the 3 key elements

BasinsDynamics& Fluxes

Biogeochemical Flux Models

(C, N, P)

Net Material Flux of C, N, P

(& trace gases)

Models with variables x & y defined

Coastal seasCoastal land

x y

sequestration

atmosphere

Groundwater flux

Catchment BasinsVariables of xfrom biogeophysical& geochemicalprocesses and socioeconomic assessmentSurface material flux

Shelf

Net Material Flux of C,N,P

(& trace gases)

Models with defined variables of x and y

Biogeochemical Budgets: C, N, P Fluxes & Net System Metabolism

Modelling of nutrient processes in coastal seas and estuaries at local scales. Global assessment of system sink-sources for C,N,P by typology techniques.

Water and Salt Budgets

• Salt budget– Net flows known.– Mixing (VX) conserves

salt content.

• Water budget– Freshwater flows

known.– System residual flow

(VR) conserves volume.oceanSocean

systemVsystem, Ssystem

VR =VE - (VP+VQ+VG+VO)

VPVE

VQ, VG, VO

WATER BUDGET

VPSE= 0

VESE= 0

VQSQ, VGSG, VOSO = 0ocean

Soce an

s ystemVsystem, Ssystem

SR = (Soce an + Ss yste m)/2

VRSR

VX = VRSR/(Soc ea n-Ss yste m) SALT BUDGET

Nutrient Budgets

• Calculations based on simple system stoichiometry– Assume Redfield C:N:P ratio (106:16:1)

• (production - respiration) = -106 x DIP• (Nitrogen fixation - denitrification) = DINobs - 16 x DIP

• Nutrient (Y) budgets– Internal dissolved

nutrient net source orsink (Y) to conserveY.

ocean system

NUTRIENTS

Y = outputs - inputs

sediments

DIN = -180

DIN = -313

DIN = -310

VODINO = 262

VODINO = 262

VODINO = 350

VQDINQ = 4VQDINQ = 8

VQDINQ =128

Ocean

LINGAYEN GULFDIN Budget (fluxes in 106 moles/yr)

Upper Gulf(84%area)

Nearshore(10%area)

Bolinao(6%area)

DIN1B = 3.9µM DIN2 = 0.8µM

DIN1N = 1.7µM

VXDINX = -211

VR DINR= -10

VRDINR = -2

VXDINX = -78

DIN3 = 0.5µMVRDINR = -7 VXDINX = -282

VGDING = 28

VGDING =11

VGDING = 39

The new LOICZ:

Land-Ocean Interface and Key scientific Thematics

• River basins and human dimensions

• Coastal development and change: implications of land, water and sea use

• Fate and transformation of materials in coastal and shelf waters

• Towards system sustainability and resource management issues

• Risk and safety

Soil

River

Estuary

Coast

Atm

osp

her

e

Bio

ph

ysic

al B

asin

-Co

ast

Hu

man

Act

ivit

ies

Impact -Coastal State Change

Socio-Economic Drivers

EnvironmentalPressures.

Policy Response &

ManagementOptions

Environmental ‘State’ Changes:

Impacts-Coastal

Response

StakeholdersGains/losses

Biophysicalpropertiesbasin-coast

Soil

River

Estuary

Coast

Atm

osph

ere

Bio

phys

ical

pro

pert

ies B

asin

-Coa

st

Hum

an A

ctiv

ities

Impact -Coastal State Change

Theme 1: River-Basins and Human DimensionsGoal: to assess and forecast the magnitude and variations in land-derived material loads to the coastal seas, and implications of these fluxes and changes on coastal functioning and human use

Sambas1999,2001

AfriBasin2000,2001

EuroCat2001

CariBas2001

EABasin2001

AusOceBasin2002

?Bas

?Bas

RusBas2001

SAmbas1999, 2001

AfriBasin2000, 2001

EuroCat2001

CariBas2000, 2001

EastAsiaBasin2001

Austral/AsiaBasin 2002

? North AmericanBasin

RussianBasins2002

Past, Present and Future System Functioning

“Hitlists” Regional Drivers and Pressures

Impacts & Critical loadsScenario development

Global upscalingTypology

Ranking CoastalIssues and Drivers

AnthropogenicDrivers

Major State Changesand Coastal Impact

Present PressureStatus

TrendExpectations

1 Urbanization Eutrophication Major

2 Damming/ Diversion Erosion/Sedimentation Major

3 Industrialisation Pollution Medium

4 Agriculture Eutrophication/Pollution Medium

5 Deforestation Erosion/Sedimentation Medium

6 Aquaculture Eutrophication Low

7 Navigation Erosion/Sedimentation Low

8 Fisheries Loss of Biodiversity Low

9 Tourism Erosion/Eutrophication Low

10 Mining Erosion/Pollution Low

Oceania B. 2001

More N is fixed synthetically than

is fixed naturally an terrestrial systems

Global distribution of hypoxia zones

Nutrient loads exceed assimilative capacity of coastal systems

Goal: to assess and model the temporal and spatial scales of land based coastal change (habitats, biodiversity, ecol. Economics)

Theme 2: Coastal Development and Change -Implications of Land, Water and Sea use

Predicted log(mol DIP km-2 yr-1)

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Obs

erve

d lo

g(m

ol D

IP k

m-2

yr-1

)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6log(mol DIP km-2 yr-1) =

2.72 + 0.36 x log(persons/km2) + 0.78 x log(m/yr)

R2 = 0.58

1

2

3

45

DIN and DIP loads can be described by a log-log regression of population density and area-normalized catchment discharge

They are tightly coupled (over the range of scales) in spite of different sources and chemistry.

red points are from Meybeck and Ragu (GEMS GLORI data base)

Future challenge:

to understand load impacts on coastal waters

Theme 2: Coastal Development and Change - Implications of Land, Water and Sea use

Global typology filter: of low population density (<10/km2) and low cropland use (<5%) (Arctic region cropped).

The disappearing low pressure/risk coast --- filtering the data to include only low population, low agriculture regions

permits classifying possible low-impact, “natural” areas.

Theme 2: Coastal Development and Change - Implications of Land, Water and Sea use

Theme 3: Fate and Transformation of Materials in Coastal and Shelf waters

sl

coastal zone

land

coastal aquifer

+

- + -open ocean

• benthos/water column interface(1) pore water reservoir(2) terrestrial gw(3) geophysical fluids

•Shelf Processes, •Coastal Aquifer System, •open Ocean and Atmosphere Exchange and Quantification

Goal: to describe the fate of land-derived and atmospheric loads and ramification of load changes in the coastal and continental shelf seas, and implications for Earth function

Theme 4: Towards System Sustainability and Resource Management Issues

• Goal: to develop scenarios of probable and “desirable” future response options and to provide the integrative indicators and scaling tools.

Human Dimensions of pressure and change in the “Anthropocene”

Global vulnerability maps

Global typology showing estimated regions of highly “disturbed” coastal systems

typology filter: population density >60/km2 and cropland use >10%

Theme 5: Risk & Safety

Goal: improve knowledge and understanding of vulnerability of society and ecosystems to global change hazards in the coastal zone

On global scales: direct disturbance (e.g., altered hydrology, sea level rise)

Polar (< 4 oC) - Climate change

Temperate (4-24oC) - Eutrophication

Tropical (24+oC) - Soil erosion

Actions & Research Foci

Theme 5: Risk & Safety

Socio-Economic DRIVERS (t 1- n)•Urbanisation and Transport/Trade•Agriculture, Land Use Change,•Fisheries, Aquaculture,•Industrial and Tourism

Socio-Economic DRIVERS (t 1- n)•Urbanisation and Transport/Trade•Agriculture, Land Use Change,•Fisheries, Aquaculture,•Industrial and Tourism

Environmental PRESSURES (t 1- n)•Land Conversions and Reclamation.•Dredging, Oil/Gas Extraction.•Waste Disposal in coastal water.•Water Abstraction. Drainage network and •Estuarine and Coastline Engineering, •Dams, Barriers and Barrages.

Environmental PRESSURES (t 1- n)•Land Conversions and Reclamation.•Dredging, Oil/Gas Extraction.•Waste Disposal in coastal water.•Water Abstraction. Drainage network and •Estuarine and Coastline Engineering, •Dams, Barriers and Barrages.

Policy RESPONSE (t 1- n)Policy RESPONSE (t 1- n) Environmental STATE Change (t 1- n)Flux Changes of C, N, P, Toxins, Sediments and Water through Basins and Coastal Zones causing• Eutrophication/Pollution, Erosion• Loss of habitats and Biological Diversity,

Environmental STATE Change (t 1- n)Flux Changes of C, N, P, Toxins, Sediments and Water through Basins and Coastal Zones causing• Eutrophication/Pollution, Erosion• Loss of habitats and Biological Diversity,

IMPACTS (t 1 - n)Change in Ecosystem Processes and Functions leads to impacts on human welfare via changes in•productivity, •health, amenity and existence •value changes.

IMPACTS (t 1 - n)Change in Ecosystem Processes and Functions leads to impacts on human welfare via changes in•productivity, •health, amenity and existence •value changes.

Natural forcing:• Climate Change • Coastal ProcessesVariability

•Integrated Modelling, •Scaling•Scenario Building•Habitat assessment

LOICZ input: •Validation of Stake-holder Gains/Losses

•Validation of Response •Scenarios/Options•Decision Support

ICZM

take

s pl

ace

here

LOICZ Models:•Flux C, N, P, Sedim.•Geomorphologic change•Indicators for Loads, Environ. Functions

•Typology Database•Scaling Tools•Spatial coverage•Network links

Goal

Basic Framework

Non-environmentally adjusted measures

Environmentallyadjusted measures

AppropriateValuationMethods

___________

Marketed

value ofmarketed goods

and servicesproduced and

consumed in aneconomy

GNP(Gross National

Product)GDP

(Gross DomesticProduct) NNP

(Net National Product)

NNP’(Net National Product

including non-produced assetts)

Market values

EconomicIncome Weak

Sustainability

1 + non-marketed goods

and servicesconsumption

ENNP (Environmental NetNational Product)

SEEA (System of

EnvironmentalEconomic Accounts)

1 + Willingness to Pay Based Values (see

Table 2)

___________

StrongSustainability

2 + preserveessential natural

capital

SNI(Sustainable National

Income)

SEEA(System of

EnvironmentalEconomic Accounts)

2 + Replacement Costs,+

ProductionValues

Economic Welfare

value of the wefareeffects of income and

other factors(including

distribution,household work, loss

of natural capitaletc.)

MEW(Measure of Economic

Welfare)

ISEW(Index of SustainableEconomic Welfare)

3 +ConstructedPreferences

HumanWelfare

assessment ofthe degree towhich human

needs arefulfilled

HDI (Human

Development Index)

HNA(Human NeedsAssessment)

4 + ConsensusBuildingDialogue

A range of goals for national accounting and their corresponding frameworks,measures, and valuation methods

from: Costanza, R., S. Farber, B. Castaneda and M. Grasso. 2000. Green national accounting: goals and methods. Chapter in: Cleveland, C. J., D. I. Stern and R. Costanza (eds.) The nature of economics and the economics of nature. Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, England (in press)

Summary of global values of annual ecosystem services (From: Costanza et al. 1997)

Value per ha

($/ha/yr)

577 252

4052 22832 19004 6075 1610

804 969

2007 302 232

14785 9990

19580 8498

92

Global Flow Value

(e12 $/yr)

20.9 8.4

12.6 4.1 3.8 0.3 4.3

12.3 4.7 3.8 0.9 0.9 4.9 1.6 3.2 1.7

0.1

33.3

Biome

MarineOpen OceanCoastal

Estuaries Seagrass/Algae Beds Coral Reefs Shelf

TerrestrialForest

Tropical Temperate/Boreal

Grass/RangelandsWetlands

Tidal Marsh/Mangroves Swamps/Floodplains

Lakes/RiversDesertTundraIce/RockCroplandUrban

Total

Area (e6 ha)

36,302 33,200 3,102

180 200 62

2,660

15,323 4,855 1,900 2,955 3,898

330 165 165 200

1,925 743

1,640 1,400

332

51,625

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