dennis rathbun merrill lynch conversation - pages from c142383-03b-2

7/31/2019 Dennis Rathbun Merrill Lynch Conversation - Pages From C142383-03B-2

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From: Dennis KRathbunTo: VieWi-Cook, Annette; H; Hayden. ElizabethSubject: Fwd: DennisDate: Thursday, March 17, 2011 6:48:04 AM

George works at Merrill Lynch, know generally what I did while working. Just askedwhat did I think type thing.Post retirement, I actually bought 2000 shares of GE stock. I did not buy it becauseof their reactor business, and am not selling because of this thing.It's not going to be easy, but I am sure they will handle it. In fact likely to getworse-----or no other dumb reasons than that there are so many avenues for morebad things to happen.This is one of those times that I can say, it sure is nice to be retired.I watched some but not al l of the Energy and Commerce committee hearingyesterday. About half the members are the same as when I was there ---- they lookand sound the same---except maybe older.I saw Sec Chu for the first time. He is as good as or better at a hearing as anyenergy secretary I have ever seen.Sent from my iPhoneBegin forwarded message:

From: Dennis KRathbun < (b)6) >Date: March 17, 2011 6:24:44 AM EDTTo: "Vassiliou, George (Washington, DC)" .(b)(6) >Subject: Re: DennisGeorgeI was with the Commission al l thru the agony of Three Mile Island, samewith Chernobyl, different chairman actually visited that plant in 1988,been thru 9/11, again different chairman -----hought I had provably seenit al l in terms of 'what's the worst that an happen' type of thing. Evenwith enormous agony in a multi year public process task lead the painfuleffort to write the Conmission's reactor safety goals policy statement. Foruse with quantitative probabilistic risk assessment. This business tops anyof those not very pleasant for me personally type experiences. Allinvolving myriads of Congressional hearings, painful press stuff.Now this. The idea that one natural event, one card dealt from MotherNature herself could create this much of a common mode type event at 4reactors was just not expected.All of our plants and theirs in any developed country are designed forstation blackouts-----oss of off site power. A1000 Mwt reactor requirearound 50 Mwt to power is own station, pumps and valves type thing.


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you cannot just flip off the switch to a reactor and everything stops.Many types of individual nuclear reactions are cooking at the same time.Some with fraction of a second half lives, some a few days, some weeks,months, others years or for plutonium 24000 years. These substantialheat producing things take a number of weeks to cook down.So station blackout, being loss of offside power is a thoroughly commonplanned for event. All plants therefor have so called emergency dieselgenerators---or something like that as 'high reliability systems'. Musthandle station powers needs as long as necessary.Failing that it is typical to have additional batteries as backup behind thegenerators---which may not start. But they by nature are short termthings.But the very idea that one thing, one natural event could knock ou t all ofthese things at all of these plants seems like dealing a 52 card royalflush.Then forget the reactors-----his same event apparently swept awaythousands of poor people like the tsunami in Indonesia, Chile. A so calledundersea thrust type seismic event like 1876 in eastern Sierras, OwensValley thing. Unlike the San Andreas, strike slip with the pacific plategoing north into a subduction zone diving down inAlaska.As you know the off shore thrust seismic things create the step functiontsunami conditions ----amplified by proximity, near shore sea floorconditions.This will by it's nuclear and engineering nature drag on for painful weeksif not months. The all things considered conditions hole is so big,involving so many moving parts ---- that would be my notion.Plus they are Japanese. Not like Katrina when NRC mangers weredemanding to know where those underwater nuclear materials all were.Those guys had some advance notice and time for the Gulf reactors toshut down and get ready. But for the many nuclear materials peopledemanded to know where all the nuclear materials stuff was.Well, La and Miss are NRC Agreement states. Thus we have a hold overthem. Literally and legally. Well the state program directors in Jacksonand La do not much appreciate pressuring calls from Washington whenthere offices are underwater, no lights, no phones etc etc. Like get ou t ofmy face till I can breathe again. And they speak English.You get the idea. Now post TMI and the reliance on jammed phone lineslead NRC to spend a fortune hard wiring every nuance of plant life atevery single nuclear plant in the US to the NRC Incident ResponseCenter.This situation is half a globe circumference away, day is night, night isday type thing, no wired data connection, with a people who for the mostpart do not speak English or ours speak Japanese, with a regulatory


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system which neither I or almost anybody else around understands. Youge t the idea.Sure, once in 1992, with one of the NRC chairman, we went to Japan,went to one of their power plants. Sure I and everybody knows they useGE like ours various types boiling water reactors. Not WestinghousePWR's. And yes, they are always, always interested and follow closelywhat we develop and do in the US.But that's it. I read in the WSJ papers like you have, they have had theirissues their with regulatory independence, enforcement, and so forth.So we will learn from what they tell us and what can happen aroundhere. Beyond that we have to make our own decisions based on us. Weare not them and vice versa.For me personally I do not think I want waterfront property anywhere onthe Pacific rim. Chile, Japan, Alaska, or California.Anyway ----y thoughts per your Q.RegardsDennisSent from my iPhoneOn Mar 16, 2011, at 9:19 PM, "Vassiliou, George (Washington, DC)" wrote:

Hi Dennis,What do you make of the Japanese reactor situation?Best,George

Sent using BlackBerryGeorge D.Vassiliou, CRPC, CSNAVice PresidentSenior Financial AdvisorMerrill LynchGlobal Private Client GroupTel (202)659-7528Fax (202)609-9441Maria KennedyClient Associate(202)659-5499


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dennis rathbun merrill lynch conversation - pages from c142383-03b-2

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