decision making - mktg.ppt

8/8/2019 decision Making - mktg.ppt

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Slide 3-1

Marketing

DecisionMaking and

Case Analysis


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Case Analysis

Slide 3-2

1. Describe each step in the decision-making

process using the “DECIDE” method.

2. Prepare and present an analysis o a !ritten

case.

AFTER READING THIS CHAPTER YOU SHOULD BE ABLE TO:


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Slide 3-3

DECISION MAKING

“Decision making is a rational and

systematic process and that its

organi"ation is a deinite se#uenceo steps$ each o them in turn

rational and systematic.”

% Peter Drucker


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Slide 3-4

DECI&I'(-)*+I(,P'CE&&

CHAPTER 3: MARKETING DECISIONMAKING AND CASE ANALYSIS


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Slide 3-5

DECISION-MAKING PROCESS: DECIDE

Enumerate te !e"#$#%n &a"t%r$

Enumerate te !e"#$#%n &a"t%r$

C%n$#!er te re'e(ant#n&%rmat#%n

C%n$#!er te re'e(ant#n&%rmat#%n

Dene te )r%*'em

Dene te )r%*'em

I!ent#&+ te *e$t a'ternat#(e

I!ent#&+ te *e$t a'ternat#(e

De(e'%) a )'an &%r #m)'ement#n,te "%$en a'ternat#(e

De(e'%) a )'an &%r #m)'ement#n,te "%$en a'ternat#(e

E(a'uate te !e"#$#%n an! te!e"#$#%n )r%"e$$

E(a'uate te !e"#$#%n an! te!e"#$#%n )r%"e$$


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Slide 3-6

STEP : DEFINE THE PROBLEM

“* problem !ell deined is hal soled.”

% John Dewey

Problem deinition rame!ork includes/

C%n$tra#nt$

C%n$tra#nt$Su""e$$

Mea$ure$

Su""e$$Mea$ure$

O*.e"t#(e$

O*.e"t#(e$


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Slide 3-7

STEP /: ENUMERATE THE DECISIONFACTORS

0!o decision actors to be enumerated and related to

each other/

A'ternat#(eC%ur$e$ %& A"t#%n

A'ternat#(eC%ur$e$ %& A"t#%n

Un"erta#nt#e$Un"erta#nt#e$

Controllable by the

decision maker such as

the marketing mi.

ncontrollable actors

that the manager cannot

inluence.


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Slide 3-8

STEP 3: CONSIDER RELE0ANTINFORMATION

Relevant information consists o inormation that relates to

the alternaties identiied by the manager as being likely to

aect uture eents. Includes characteristics o the

ollo!ing/

C%n$umer$C%n$umer$

C%m)et#t%r$C%m)et#t%r$

In!u$tr+In!u$tr+

Or,an#1at#%n2"%m)et#t#(e

$tren,t$ an!)%$#t#%n

Or,an#1at#%n2"%m)et#t#(e

$tren,t$ an!)%$#t#%n

A'ternat#(e$A'ternat#(e$


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Slide 3-9

STEP 3: CONSIDER RELE0ANTINFORMATION

Identiying releant inormation is diicult/

• 0here is oten an oerabundance o inormation and ie!points

• Determining !hat does and does not matter is a skill learned

through eperience

• esist the temptation to consider eerything as actual

inormation

• &ometimes releant inormation must be created

* manager has perormed a situation analysis !hen steps 1 through 3 are

completed.


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STEP 4: IDENTIFY THE BESTALTERNATI0E

0he rame!ork or identiying the best alternatie is

decision analysis$ !hich/

se a decision tree and a payo table to sho! the

relationship among alternaties$ uncertainties$ and

potential outcomes.

•

)atches each alternatie !ith the uncertainties in theenironment

• *ssigns a #uantitatie alue to the outcome associated !ith each

match


11/37Slide 3-11


Eample/ El (acho 4oods

A'ternat#(e

C%ur$e$ %& A"t#%n&%r Fr%1en D#nner$

A'ternat#(e

C%ur$e$ %& A"t#%n&%r Fr%1en D#nner$

Un"erta#nt#e$a*%ut C%m)et#t%r$

Un"erta#nt#e$a*%ut C%m)et#t%r$

• educe price

• )aintain price

• )aintain lo!er price

• educe price urther


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E5HIBIT 36: DECISION TREE FOREL NACHO FOODS

789;;;

7


13/37Slide 3-13


Displays the alternaties$ uncertainties$ and

outcomes acing a irm.

* payoff table/

Includes management5s determination o the

probability o an uncertainty5s occurrence.


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E5HIBIT 36/: PAYOFF TABLE FOREL NACHO FOODS

7;;;;7;;;;

7


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* payoff table computes the “epected monetary alue” 6E)78 or each

alternatie.

0he E)7 is calculated as ollo!s/

EM0EM0Outcome of

Uncertainty1

Outcome of

Uncertainty1= >

Outcome of

Uncertainty2

Outcome of

Uncertainty2

?Probability (p)

of Uncertainty1

Probability (p)

of Uncertainty1

Probability (p)

of Uncertainty2

Probability (p)

of Uncertainty2

>?

((

((

))

))

E)7PI 9 E)7 o Perect Inormation

@


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E5HIBIT 363: DECISION ANALYSIS ANDTHE 0ALUE OF INFORMATION

7;;;;7;;;;

7


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Is a undamental tool or considering “!hat i” situations.

Decision analysis is important because it/

4orces the manager to #uantiy outcomes associated !ith speciic actions.

Is useul in a ariety o settings.

Can be used in determining the alue o

“perect” inormation.


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STEP 9: DE0ELOP A PLAN FORIMPLEMENTING THE CHOSEN ALTERNATI0E

*llocation o marketing$ inancial$ andmanuacturing resources.

Deeloping an implementation plan inoles/

&trategy ormulation.

&trategy implementation.

0iming needed to deelop a marketing plan.


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STEP : E0ALUATE THE DECISIONAND THE DECISION PROCESS

:as a decision made;

:ith respect to the decision itsel$ ask t!o #uestions/

:as the decision appropriate gien the situation;


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STEP : E0ALUATE THE DECISIONAND THE DECISION PROCESS

:as the problem deined ade#uately;

:ith respect to the perormance o the decision-making process$ ask ie

#uestions/

:ere all the pertinent alternaties and uncertainties identiied; :ere the

assumptions realistic;

:as all the releant inormation considered;

:as an appropriate course o action recommended;

:as the logic consistent; :as any important piece o inormation oerlooked;


21/37Slide 3-21

PEP*I(, *(DPE&E(0I(,

* C*&E *(*=>&I&

CHAPTER 3: MARKETING DECISIONMAKING AND CASE ANALYSIS


22/37Slide 3-22

APPROACHING THE CASE

First reading . ?ecome amiliar !ith the situation o

the organi"ation/

Second reading . ay attention to key acts andassumptions/

• Identiy insights into the problem

• 'btain background inormation on the enironment and

organi"ation

• Determine releance and reliability o data

• 0ake etensie notes


23/37Slide 3-23

APPROACHING THE CASE

Do not rush to a conclusion.

*oid these pitalls/

Do not conuse supposition !ith act.

Do not “!ork the numbers” until their meaning and

deriation are understood.


24/37Slide 3-24

(ature o the Industry$ )arket$ and ?uying?ehaior/

*ssess the structure$ conduct$ and

perormance o the industry and competitors.

FORMULATING THE CASE ANALYSIS

Identiy the buyers and !hy$ !here$ !hen$ ho!$

!hat$ and ho! much they buy.


25/37Slide 3-25

0he 'rgani"ation/

nderstand an organi"ation5s resources%

inancial$ human$ and material.


Identiy an organi"ation5s strengths and

!eaknesses and the reasons or success or ailure.

*ssess the “it” bet!een an organi"ation and its

enironment ia a &:'0 analysis.


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* Plan o *ction/

Identiy possible courses o action based on the

situation analysis.


Calculate realistic estimates o the reenues and

costs o each course o action.


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Potential 'utcomes/

Ealuate the potential outcomes o all courses o

action.


ecommend the best course o action to be pursued.


28/37Slide 3-28

I sing 0eams/

Create a balanced team !hose member5s skill

sets complement one another 6!riting$ oralpresentation$ inancial$ etc.8.


?e committed to the task and dependable.

*oid “groupthink.”

E5HIBIT 3 4 MARKETING CASE


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Slide 3-29

E5HIBIT 364: MARKETING CASEANALYSIS ORKSHEET

Nature %& te#n!u$tr+ maret

an! *u+er*ea(#%r

Nature %& te#n!u$tr+ maret

an! *u+er*ea(#%r

6 at #$ te nature %& te #n!u$tr+ $tru"ture "%n!u"t an! )er&%rman"e

/6 % are te "%m)et#t%r$ an! at are te#r $tren,t$ an! eane$$e$

36 H% !% "%n$umer$ *u+ #n t#$ #n!u$tr+ %r maret

46 Can te maret *e $e,mente! H% Can te $e,ment$ *e uant#e!

96 at are te reu#rement$ &%r $u""e$$ #n t#$ #n!u$tr+

TeOr,an#1at#%n

TeOr,an#1at#%n

6 at are te %r,an#1at#%n$ m#$$#%n %*.e"t#(e$ an! !#$t#n"t#(e "%m)eten"+

/6 at #$ #t$ %&&er#n, t% te maret H% "an #t$ )a$t an! )re$ent )er&%rman"e *e "ara"ter#1e! at #$ #t$ )%tent#a'

36 at #$ te $#tuat#%n #n #" te mana,er %r %r,an#1at#%n n!$ #t$e'&

46 at &a"t%r$ a(e "%ntr#*ute! t% te )re$ent $#tuat#%n

A P'an%& A"t#%n

A P'an

%& A"t#%n

6 at a"t#%n$ are a(a#'a*'e t% te %r,an#1at#%n

/6 at are te "%$t$ an! *enet$ %& a"t#%n #n *%t ua'#tat#(e an! uant#tat#(e term$

36 I$ tere a !#$)ar#t+ *eteen at te %r,an#1at#%n ant$ t% !% $%u'! !% "an !% an! mu$t !%

P%tent#a'Out"%me$

P%tent#a'Out"%me$

6 at #'' *e te *u+er tra!e an! "%m)et#t#(e re$)%n$e t% ea" "%ur$e %& a"t#%n

/6 H% #'' ea" "%ur$e %& a"t#%n $at#$&+ *u+er tra!e an! %r,an#1at#%n reu#rement$

36 at #$ te )%tent#a' )r%ta*#'#t+ %& ea" "%ur$e %& a"t#%n

46 #'' te a"t#%n enan"e %r re!u"e te %r,an#1at#%n$ a*#'#t+ t% "%m)ete #n te &uture



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Slide 3-30

E5HIBIT 364a: MARKETING CASEANALYSIS ORKSHEET

Nature %& te#n!u$tr+maret an!

*u+er

*ea(#%r

Nature %& te#n!u$tr+maret an!

*u+er

*ea(#%r

6 at #$ te nature %& te #n!u$tr+$tru"ture "%n!u"t an! )er&%rman"e

/6 % are te "%m)et#t%r$ an! at arete#r $tren,t$ an! eane$$e$

36 H% !% "%n$umer$ *u+ #n t#$ #n!u$tr+ %rmaret

46 Can te maret *e $e,mente! H% Cante $e,ment$ *e uant#e!

96 at are te reu#rement$ &%r $u""e$$ #nt#$ #n!u$tr+

E5HIBIT 3 4* MARKETING CASE


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Slide 3-31

E5HIBIT 364*: MARKETING CASEANALYSIS ORKSHEET

TeOr,an#1at#%n

TeOr,an#1at#%n

6 at are te %r,an#1at#%n$ m#$$#%n%*.e"t#(e$ an! !#$t#n"t#(e "%m)eten"+

/6 at #$ #t$ %&&er#n, t% te maret H% "an#t$ )a$t an! )re$ent )er&%rman"e *e"ara"ter#1e! at #$ #t$ )%tent#a'

36 at #$ te $#tuat#%n #n #" temana,er %r %r,an#1at#%n n!$ #t$e'&

46 at &a"t%r$ a(e "%ntr#*ute! t% te)re$ent $#tuat#%n



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Slide 3-32

E5HIBIT 364": MARKETING CASEANALYSIS ORKSHEET

A P'an%& A"t#%n

A P'an%& A"t#%n

6 at a"t#%n$ are a(a#'a*'e t% te%r,an#1at#%n

/6 at are te "%$t$ an! *enet$ %& a"t#%n

#n *%t ua'#tat#(e an! uant#tat#(e term$

36 I$ tere a !#$)ar#t+ *eteen at te%r,an#1at#%n ant$ t% !% $%u'! !% "an !%an! mu$t !%

E5HIBIT 3 4! MARKETING CASE


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Slide 3-33

E5HIBIT 364!: MARKETING CASEANALYSIS ORKSHEET

P%tent#a'Out"%me$

P%tent#a'Out"%me$

6 at #'' *e te *u+er tra!e an! "%m)et#t#(ere$)%n$e t% ea" "%ur$e %& a"t#%n

/6 H% #'' ea" "%ur$e %& a"t#%n $at#$&+ *u+ertra!e an! %r,an#1at#%n reu#rement$

36 at #$ te )%tent#a' )r%ta*#'#t+ %& ea""%ur$e %& a"t#%n

46 #'' te a"t#%n enan"e %r re!u"e te%r,an#1at#%n$ a*#'#t+ t% "%m)ete #n te&uture

COMMUNICATING THE CASE


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Slide 3-34

COMMUNICATING THE CASEANALYSIS

C'a$$ D#$"u$$#%nC'a$$ D#$"u$$#%n

Case preparation re#uires @AB hours.

?ring notes to class.

Careully listen to the ie!points o other studentsduring the discussion o the case.

Prepare a short summary o the case ater discussing

it in class.



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Slide 3-35


Ora' Pre$entat#%nOra' Pre$entat#%n

ehearse the presentation.

7isual aids do not replace the oral presentation.

• Do not read slides to the audience

• Do not use too many graphics$ colors$ and transitions



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Slide 3-36


Ora' Pre$entat#%nOra' Pre$entat#%n

&lides should coer the ollo!ing/

• 'pening slide/ Presentation title and presenters5 names

• 'utline o the presentation

• +ey problems and strategic issues that management needs to address

• *nalysis o the organi"ation5s situation or problem

• ecommendations and supporting reasoning or each



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r#tten Re)%rtr#tten Re)%rt

?e careully organi"ed and grammatically correct.

decision making - mktg.ppt

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