Decision Making

And

Problem solving.

Objectives

Define decision ,decision making , problem solving.

List the five steps in the decision making process.

Describe at least six techniques to increase creativity.

Identify at least five decision making tools.

MANAGERIAL ROLES (Mintzberg):

Interpersonal: figureheads & leaders

Informational: receive; disseminate critical info

Decisional: initiate activities; handle disturbances; allocate resources; negotiate conflicts

definition

Decision : is a solution chosen from among alternatives .

Decision-making process : is the process of selecting an alternative course of action that will solve a problem.

Problem solving: is the process of taking corrective action in order to meet objectives.

Other Definitions Of Decision Making

The cognitive process of reaching a decision.

Choosing between alternative courses of action using cognitive processes - memory, thinking, evaluation, etc

The process of mapping the likely consequences of decisions, working out the importance of individual factors, and choosing the best course of action to take.

Decision making and Problem-Solving Steps:

Define the problem Gather information Develop alternatives Weigh alternatives Select the best alternative Implement the solution Monitor progress and follow up

Step 1: Define the problem and analyze

the situation and Identify decision criteria To express the issue in a clear, one-

sentence problem statement that . Identify root causes, limiting assumptions,

system and organizational boundaries and interfaces.

Identify resources.

Gathering Information Exploration of the Problem

.

This is the initial activity of decision-making in which you think about all of the possibilities related to the problem and the decision.

Identification of Feasible Alternatives

Alternatives: Optional courses of action from which a decision maker is expected to choose that are obtained from memory, vendor search, research and development,.

Alternatives differ in their nature or character, not only in quantitative details. If A is selected, B cannot be chosen.

Criteria Criteria: the characteristics or requirements

that each alternative must possess to a greater or lesser extent. Usually the alternatives are rated on how well they possess each criterion.

These decision criteria identify what will guide the decision-making process. They are the important facts relevant to the problem as defined .

There is no single best criterion for decision making where a perfect knowledge is present.

Criteria

It is important that decision criteria be established early in the problem solving process .

These facts can be tangible (work assignments, the work schedules, or work orders ) as well as intangible (morale, motivation, and personal feelings and perceptions).

The manager must identify all workable alternative solutions for resolving the problem.

Workable prevents alternative solutions that are too expensive, too time-consuming, or too elaborate.

Alternatives offer different approaches for changing the initial condition into the desired condition..

These are the possibilities one has to choose from. Alternatives can be identified (that is, searched for and located) or even developed (created where they did not previously exist)

Choose The Most Desirable Alternative The number and quality of alternatives

depend largely on on the creativity and productivity of managers and their staff.

Manager could assess the potential consequences of each alternative .

Uncertainty is a state in which the decision-maker judges the different possible outcomes of each alternative but lacks any feeling for their probabilities of success.

ORGANIZATIONAL MODELS OF DECISION MAKING RATIONAL : Maximize organization’s benefits and common

goals by selecting the best solution to achieve the desired outcomes.

Disadvantage : unrealistic expectations, long time BUREAUCRATIC: Follow standard operating procedures

(SOP),routine,APPS,formal . Disadvantage: limited alternative solutions ,depends on history. POLITICAL: Key groups compete and bargain ,win-win

situations,majority and negotiations. Disadvantage: limited alternative solutions “GARBAGE CAN”: Organizations not rational; solutions

accidental

LEVELS OF DECISION MAKING

STRATEGIC: Long-term objectives; resources; policies

MANAGEMENT CONTROL: Monitor use of resources; performance

KNOWLEDGE-BASED: Evaluate potential innovations; knowledge

OPERATIONAL: How to carry out specific day-to-day tasks

Decision Making Techniques

The techniques in this chapter help you to make the best decisions possible with the information you have available. With these tools you will be able to map out the likely consequences of decisions, work out the importance of individual factors, and choose the best course of action to take.

Pareto Analysis Selecting the most important changes to make. Often better known as “The 80/20 Rule,” Pareto helps you locate where you can derive the greatest benefit by expending the least relative effort (or cost or resources or what have you).

Paired Comparison Analysis Evaluating the relative importance of different options

Grid Analysis Selecting between good options. Evaluate a larger set of options based on numerous criteria, then weight the importance of each criterion to derive the best choice.

Decision Trees Choosing between options by projecting likely outcomes

PMI Weighing the pros and cons of a decision

Force Field Analysis Analyzing the pressures for and against change

Six Thinking Hats Looking at a decision from all points of view

Cost/Benefit Analysis Seeing whether a change is worth making

Multivoting: Narrows a large list of possibilities to a smaller list of the top priorities or to a final selection; allows an item that is favored by all, but not the top choice of any, to rise to the top.

Decision matrix: Evaluates and prioritizes a list of options, using pre-determined weighted criteria.

Barriers to effective clinical decision making in nursing

Experience and knowledge Creative thinking Self Concept Stress Inadequate Staffing Interpersonal Conflict

Decision Strategies

four main decision making strategies:

rational intuitive recognition primed the Ultimate Decision Making

strategy

Rational decision making models

Rational decision making models involve a cognitive process where each step follows in a logical order from the one before. By cognitive, I mean it is based on thinking through and weighing up the alternatives to come up with the best potential result

Pros and cons :A rational decision making model presupposes that there is one best outcome. Because of this it is sometimes called an optimizing decision making model. The search for perfection is frequently a factor in actually delaying making a decision.

Intuitive decision strategies indicate that there may be no rationale or logic behind the choices made.

Some people consider these decisions to be unlikely coincidences, lucky guesses, or some kind of new-age hocus-pocus. Some researchers are even studying the logic behind the intuitive decision making models!

A good plan, executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week."

Gary Klein's recognition primed decision model is a combination of the first two. Intuition is used to generate a workable course of action and then you consider it logically to confirm it as appropriate.

The Ultimate Decision Making model put forward on this site goes beyond Klein's model in that it teaches you your own personal decision making signals that are built into your own biology.

Minimax: the idea is to minimise the maximum possible loss. Basically you determine what the worst outcome of each alternative is and go for 'the best of a bad lot'. The attention is obviously on minimizing the worst that can happen.

this decision making strategy is designed to choose the alternative with the least chance of disaster.

Maximax: the idea here is to maximise the maximum outcome, ie., choose your alternative with the best potential outcome. Also called decisions under uncertainty because several outcomes may occur, but the probabilities of the outcomes are not known. People who enjoy risk use these decision making strategies.

Risk minimization principle: is about choosing the alternative with the best chance of an acceptable outcome. At first, this may seem like maximax, but the latter has to do with best outcome, this one has to do with best chance of a favorable outcome.

Loss avoidance principle: choosing the alternative with the lowest possibility of loss.

Creative Thinking Techniques

Brainstorming:is an idea generating technique.

Think freely. Freewheeling, wild thoughts are fine.

Checklists:is a standard collection of items (things, verbs, questions, approaches, attributes) used to remind the creative thinker of possible ways to approach a problem or shape a solution.