ISSN 0036-8075

23 December 1983

Volume 222, No. 4630

LETTERS Growth of Scientific Journals: H. A. Abt; A Long-Lived Family: G. T. Rudkin;G. L. Trigg...........................................................

EDITORIAL A Run Worth Making

ARTICLES Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions:R. P. Turco et al. .....................................................

Long-Term Biological Consequences of Nuclear War: P. R. Ehrlich et al. .......

Theodore von Karman and Applied Mathematics in America: J. L. Greenbergand J. R. Goodstein ..................................................

NEWS AND COMMENT

RESEARCH NEWS

Trouble at the Synfuels Bank...............................................

Briefing: Will There Be Life on the Farm After the Bomb?; Agricultural StudySees Big Changes After 2000; Biogen Pays High Price for Harvard Patent;Wistar Denied Monoclonal Antibody Patent in U.K........................

A Nursing Institute for NIH? ....%

.........................................

Broad Public Support Found for R D ......................................

Math Genius May Have Hormonal Ba's .....................................

The Birth of Recombinant RNA Technolog ,.................................

The First Recombinant RNA Molecule .......................................

New Test of Variable Gravitational Constant..................................Memories Are Made of This ......................

1305

1308

1310

1311

1312

1313

1314

1316

1318

Call for Contributed Papers .................................................

1280

1281

1283

1293

1300

1319ANNUAL MEETINGm

BOOK REVIEWS New Interpretations of Ape and Human Ancestry, reviewed by E. Delson; ThePopulation Dynamics of Infectious Diseases and Population Biology ofInfectious Diseases, D. S. Woodruff; Mate Choice in Plants, D. A. Levin..... 1320

REPORTS Plutonium Speciation in Water from Mono Lake, California: J. M. Cleveland,T. F. Rees, K. L. Nash ................................................. 1323

Van der Waals Surfaces in Molecular Modeling: Implementation with Real-TimeComputer Graphics: P. A. Bash et al. ........ ........................... 1325

X Epsilon Carbide: A Low-Temperature Component of Interplanetary DustParticles: R. Christoffersen and P. R. Buseck ....... ...................... 1327

Membrane Lipid from Deep-Sea Hydrothermal Vent Methanogen: A NewMacrocyclic Glycerol Diether: P. S. Comita and R. B. Gagosian ..... ....... 1329

-The Exclusion of D20 from the Hydration Sphere of FeSO4 * 7H20 Oxidized byThiobacillus ferrooxidwss: N. Lazaroff ........ ........................... 1331

Estradiol Fatty Acid Ester Occur Naturally in Human Blood: L. Janocko andR. B. Hochberg ........................................................ 1334

Insulin Antibodies in Insulin-Dependent Diabetics Before Insulin Treatment:J. P. Palmer et al. ............ 1337

Biotinated Probe Containing a Long-Terminal Repeat Hybridized to a MouseColon Tunr Fad Normal Tissue: M. E. Royston and L. H. Augenlicht ...... 1339

Correlation di o rticoid Receptor Binding Sites on MMTV Proviral DNAwith u nucible Transcription: M. Pfahl et al. ...... .............. 1341

Compar _ of Glycolytic and Glycogenolytic Metabolism in VascularS c cle: R. M. Lynch and R. J. Paul ....... ...................... 1344

MolecuI Ra^is of HerbicidepResistance in Amaranthus hybridus: J. Hirschbergar4L.McIntosh..... 1346

Meay Retrieval: A Time-Locked Process in Infancy: J. W. Fagen andC. Rovee-Collier ....................................................... 1349

a Nerve Fiber Repairs Its Cut End: Involvement of Phospholipase A2:J H. Yawo and M. Kuno .............. ................................... 1351

The Thymus-Adrenal Connection: Thymosin Has Corticotropin-Releasing Activityin Primates: D. L. Healy et al. ......................................... 1353

COVER

(Top, left) West window of WashingtonCathedral, Washington, D.C., designedby Rowan Le Compte in 1977, depictsthe first chapter of Genesis (the cre-ation). [Photo by John T. Gruppenhoff,Potomac, Maryland] (Bottom, right)Computer graphics-generated axialview of tenfold, B form DNA [R. Lan-gridge et al., J. Mol. Biol. 2, 38 (1960)]using a new, fast surface algorithm. Seepage 1325. [Computer Graphics Labo-ratory, University of California, SanFrancisco 94143]

23 December 1983, Volume 222, Number 4630

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR A RuiTHE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE

Science serves its readers as a forum for the presenta- It hastion and discussion of important issues related to the objctivadvancement of science, including the presentation ofminority or conflicting points of view, rather than by employepublishing only material on which a consensus has been .a Ireached. Accordingly, all articles published in Sci- nationaence-including editorials, news and comment, and prevailinbook reviews-are signed and reflect the individualviews of the authors and not official points of view what is 1adopted by the AAAS or the institutions with which the within thauthors are affiliated. witificscientific

Editorial Board1983: FREDERICK R. BLATTNER, BERNARD F. BURKE, to life.

CHARLES L. DRAKE, ARTHUR F. FINDEIS, E. PETER DespitGEIDUSCHEK, GLYNN ISAAC, MILTON RUSSELL, WIL- eLIAM P. SLICHTER, JOHN WOOD look the

1984: ARNOLD DEMAIN, NEAL E. MILLER, FREDER- systems,ICK MOSTELLER, ALLEN NEWELL, RUTH PATRICK,BRYANT w. ROSSITER, VERA C. RUBIN, SOLOMON H. unmistakSNYDER, PAUL E. WAGGONER added is

Publisher: WILLIAM D. CAREYAssociate Publisher: ROBERT v. ORMES squarely

Editor: PHILIP H. ABELSON knowledlIt has

Editorial StaffAssistant Managing Editor: JOHN E. RINGLE courage,Production Editor: ELLEN E. MURPHY considerBusiness Manager: HANS NUSSBAUMNews Editor: BARBARA J. CULLITON biologicaNews and Comment: COLIN NORMAN (deputy editor), changeJEFFREY L. Fox, CONSTANCE HOLDEN, ELIOT MAR-

SHALL, R. JEFFREY SMITH, MARJORIE SUN, JOHN the biosjWALSHEuropean Correspondent: DAVID DICKSON systemsContributing Writer: LUTHER J. CARTER little chaResearch News: ROGER LEWIN (deputy editor), RICH-

ARD A. KERR, GINA KOLATA, JEAN L. MARX, THOMAS SomeH. MAUGH II, ARTHUR L. ROBINSON, M. MITCHELL scientistsWALDROPAdministrative Assistant, News: SCHERRAINE MACK; ing upon

Editorial Assistant, News: FANNIE GROOM tifiSenior Editors: ELEANORE BUTZ, MARY DORFMAN, scientifCRUTH KULSTAD technololAssociate Editors: SYLVIA EBERHART, CAITILIN GOR- Nor is itDON, LOIS SCHMITTrAssistant Editors: MARTHA COLLINS, STEPHEN of assum

KEPPLE, EDITH MEYERSBook Reviews: KATHERINE LIVINGSTON, Editor; LIN- and have

DA HEISERMAN, JANET KEGG ThereLetters: CHRISTINE GILBERTCopy Editor: ISABELLA BOULDIN warningsProduction: JOHN BAKER; HOLLY BISHOP, ELEANOR news of

WARNER; JEAN ROCKWOOD, SHARON RYAN, BEVERLYSHIELDS only to

Covers, Reprints, and Permissions: GRAYCE FINGER, exhausteEditor; GERALDINE CRUMP, CORRINE HARRISGuide to Scientific Instruments: RICHARD G. SOMMER AssembliAssistant to the Editor: SUSAN ELLIOTTAssistant to the Associate Publisher: ROSE LOWERY scientistsAssistant to the Managing Editor: NANCY HARTNAGEL cians ostMembership Recruitment: GWENDOLYN HUDDLEMember and Subscription Records: ANN RAGLAND tions, it I

EDITORIAL CORRESPONDENCE: 1515 Massachu- with "snsetts Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20005. Area code202. General Editorial Office, 467-4350; Book Reviews, concerne467-4367; Guide to Scientific Instruments, 467-4480;News and Comment, 467-4430; Reprints and Permis- force, assions, 467-4483; Research News, 4674321. Cable: Ad- be suppcvancesci, Washington. For "Information for Contribu-tors," write to the editorial office or see page xi, transceniScience, 30 September 1983. swallowBUSINESS CORRESPONDENCE: Area Code 202.Membership and Subscriptions: 467-4417. Amoni

Advertising Representatives issue is IDirector: EARL J. SCHERAGO weaponsProduction Manager: GINA REILLYAdvertising Sales Manager: RICHARD L. CHARLES scientistsMarketing Manager: HERBERT L. BURKLUND l

Sales: NEW YORK, N.Y. 10036: Steve Hamburger, 1515 down, a!Broadway (212-730-1050); SCOTCH PLAINS, N.J. 07076: quencesC. Richard Callis, 12 Unami Lane (201-889-4873); CHI-CAGO, ILL. 60611: Jack Ryan, Room 2107, 919 N. allowingMichigan Ave. (312-337-4973); BEVERLY HILLS, CALIF. Union, it90211: Winn Nance, 111 N. La Cienega Blvd. (213-657-2772); SAN JOSE, CALIF. 95112: Bob Brindley, 310 S. 16 Here, theSt. (408-998-4690); DORSET, VT. 05251: Fred W. Dief- It is a rufenbach, Kent Hill Rd. (802-867-5581).ADVERTISING CORRESPONDENCE: Tenth floor,1515 Broadway, New York 10036 (212-730-1050). *R. P. Turc

SCIENCE

n Worth Makingbeen said, perhaps too often and too loudly, that science is an

e process, one that is value-free. In our time, when science is beingd most conspicuously as an adjunct of politics and strategicpurposes, a vacuum of internal values tends to be invaded byIg external values. Not surprisingly, the eventual recognition oftaking place produces a level of discomfort that expresses itself,he strictures of science's methodologies, in concerted displays ofresponsibility. The conscience of science comes, a step at a time,

Le admonitions from Rome that believing scientists have the duty to:mselves in the eye when they apply brainpower to weaponsscientists are justified in doing what is necessary to offset the

kable progress of an unpredictable adversary. But what must bethat scientific responsibility has another dimension, and it is to lookat the consequences of violence in the application of scientific

ge.been a very good thing for the integrity of science, and a sign ofthat some 40 scientists of high standing have gone public with their*ed estimates of the global atmospheric effects and long-termLl consequences of nuclear war.* Whether such a weapons ex-would be small or vast in its scale, they believe, the effects on

phere would be lasting and literally deadly. In effect, life-supportwould be cut, and the diminished surviving populations would have.nce in a darkened and sunless environment.four decades ago in the heat of war and its enforced secrecy,s prepared the nuclear weapons that were exploded without warn-

|civilian populations. It says a good deal for the emergence of theconscience that, in a difficult age of superpower hatreds and

gical gusto, the present warning is timely, unvarnished, and stark.the first of its kind. Health scientists have made clear the absurditying that there would be a medical care system after a major attackbeen stumping the country to put the message across.remains the question of who is listening and how deeply thesepenetrate and adhere to the nation's thought. For a few days, thepotential biological catastrophe is the stuff of media prominence,be quickly displaced by the next catastrophe. The society isd and news-numbed. No special session of the U.N. Generally is called to digest and reflect on the appalling meanings of thes' findings. If alarms have shaken the American and Soviet tacti-tensibly seeking a breakthrough in nuclear arms control negotia-is a well-kept secret. The drift continues, and the world is ablazenall" wars and threats of larger ones. What does this signal tod scientists? For all that is obvious about science as a universala trusted partner in the works of society and governments, can it)sed that science cannot make a difference in the one matter thatds all the others? This is not a conclusion that scientists will

g the endless arguments centering on arms control agreements, nomore vexing than that of verifying compliance, especially as new

;are promised to the arsenals of both sides. What the cluster ofs concerned with biological effects have done very well is to nail.sfar as scientific method can do it, the probabilities of conse-of an exchange of nuclear weapons on the biosphere. Evenfor the constraints imposed on scientific opinion in the Sovietis fair to assume that the same conclusions are held in that quarter.en, is a new basis for dialogue and for an alternative run at restraint.In worth making.-WILLIAM D. CAREY

co et al. and P. R. Ehrlich et al., this issue. p /4W,