Project Update & Transitioning to Full Operational Project Update & Transitioning to Full Operational (Official) Status for Eastern and Southern Regions(Official) Status for Eastern and Southern Regions

David SharpNOAA/NWS Melbourne, FL

Pablo SantosNOAA/NWS Miami, FL

NOAA Hurricane Conference – 2010

Item 10-53

Tropical CycloneTropical CycloneImpacts Graphics Impacts Graphics

Assessing Threat & Potential ImpactAssessing Threat & Potential Impactfor Local Areasfor Local Areas

• Deterministic Assessment

– “Best Forecast”

• Local weather inputs; magnitude-only

• Expected impacts if forecast was perfect

• Probabilistic Assessment

– “Spectrum of Plausible Forecasts”

• Accounts for uncertainty; percent exceedance

• Potential impacts knowing forecast isn’t perfect

• Combined Assessments

– “What You Should Prepare For”

• Includes forecaster refinements

• Composite Maximums of Combined Assessments Over Event Time

• Potential impacts for decision assistance

Starting with the official forecast from the national center (NHC) for wind or surge…

tornado

wind

surge

flood

Developmental &Experimental Periods

• Under development for over 10 years – Since Hurricane Floyd

• Limited experimental status for ~4 years

• More comprehensive status for ~2 years– Nearly all coastal offices from Brownsville to

Caribou, to include San Juan– WFOs acquiring experience

• Wide-audience feedback

It’s Decision-Time

• Propose to transition the Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics to operational (official) status for 2012– Eastern & Southern Regions

• at that time

– Pacific & Western Regions• phased-in

What Will It Take

• Final Testing for 2011 Season• Operational Best Practices• Operational Support• Back-up Services Capability• Operating Versions of the Tools• Threat/Impact Definitions Audit• Web Pages Functionality Audit• Training Updates• Supporting Policies/Directives• Others ???

Issues & Experiences

• Overall … Past Seasons– Need to update graphics with each HLS issuance– Run Coastal Flood Threat Tool before HLS formatter

• Consider this for all tools

– “Voodoo” tool configurations – Settle on Approach (which is it?)

• Common thresholds with locally unique descriptions• Locally unique thresholds with common descriptions• Sliding scale of common thresholds with

locally unique descriptions

– Impact descriptions re-assessed– NDFD (from discrete to scalar grid?)

Issues & Experiences

• Overall– Consistency between number of graphic levels vs. the

number of impact description levels– Auto-update for the web site

• For situational awareness monitoring

– KML files for GIS systems

Issues & Experiences• High Wind Threat Tool

– Code for local variations

• Coastal Flood Threat Tool– Availability of Psurge for tropical storms

– Availability of deterministic SLOSH

– Upgrade Topo with better land/sea mask

• Inland Flooding Threat Tool– Gridded FFG

– HPC PQPF

• Tornado Threat Tool– Coordinate with gHWO tool logic

Again, Will It Take

• Final Testing for 2011 Season• Operational Best Practices• Operational Support• Back-up Services Capability• Operating Versions of the Tools• Threat/Impact Definitions Audit• Web Pages Functionality Audit• Training Updates• Supporting Policies/Directives• Others ???

Recommendations

• Reconvene the Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics team to completely identify the list of required steps for operational transition (for 2012). The team will develop a prioritized tasking list and execute the steps according to timeline.– Some technical assistance from

outside the team will be needed

Thank You !!!Thank You !!!