date: 13 november, 2019
TRANSCRIPT
Date: 13 November, 2019
The Daily Viewpoint
Page 2PCG Research
DOMESTIC INDICES
Close Points % Change
SENSEX 40345 21 0.05
NIFTY 11913 5 0.04
MIDCAP 14774 43 0.29
SMALL CAP 13498 23 0.17
SECTORAL INDICES
Close Points % Change
BANKEX 35260 424 1.22
OIL & GAS 15315 146 0.96
Finance 6726 55 0.82
REALTY 2171 17 0.79
Healthcare 13126 37 0.28
POWER 1958 4 0.20
CD 24961 18 0.07
METAL 9737 -11 -0.12
CG 18294 -33 -0.18
TECK 7400 -25 -0.34
AUTO 18290 -69 -0.38
IT 15133 -103 -0.67
BSE 200 GAINERS/LOSERS
GAINERS % LOSERS %
AMARAJABAT 9.83 TATAPOWER -3.70
ZEEL 6.22 JSWENERGY -3.39
RBLBANK 6.02 INDIGO -3.29
IDEA 5.82 ADANITRANS -3.20
YESBANK 5.80 NESTLEIND -2.54
ADVANCE/DECLINES
BSE %
ADVANCES 1244 46
DECLINES 1293 48
UNCHANGED 177 7
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY
Rs Cr 11/11/19 08/11/19 NovTotal
FII 664.20 932 3869.13 (prov.)
MF -245.06 -584 -4675.85 (prov.)
If it wasn’t for the strength of the Banking stocks, the Niftywould have broken the 11,850 support. The Niftymanaged to close in positive territory after a morningslide at 11,913.
The Bank Nifty on the other hand rallied 1.2% to close at31,116, an all-time high for the Banking benchmark.
The U.S. markets have closed with modest gains with theDow closing absolutely flat while the S&P 500 and theNasdaq made new intraday highs, even as Trump didn’tgive a concrete date for the signing of the trade pact withChina.
But Asian markets are mired in deep red as they take noteof violence in Hong Kong and Trumps threat of moretariffs if no China deal.
Our markets are likely to open weak today with the SGXsuggesting a dip of nearly 35 points in the morning trade.The Rupee is also likely to dip around 28 paise.
The markets are also likely to take into account the weakIIP data that came in after the markets closed Monday.The IIP shrank for the second consecutive month inSeptember, its worst performance in the series that beganApril 2012, highlighting the persistent structuralslowdown in the economy and firming up expectations offurther monetary easing next month with scant signs of aturnaround.
Tomorrow is the weekly derivative expiry. Puts have beenwritten at 11,800 and 11,850 marks while Calls have beenwritten at the 12,000 strike.
We think that 11,850 mark in the Nifty should hold as themarkets digest weak global cues and dismal domesticeconomic data.
Bajaj Finserve, ICICI Bank and Kotak Bank that did wellyesterday could find takers again at declines. FortisHospitals broke out of a congestion yesterday.
BANKS BELAY THE NIFTY
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GLOBAL INDICES
Close Points % Chg
DOW JONES 27691 -0.07 0.00
S & P 500 3092 4.83 0.16
NASDAQ 8486 21.81 0.26
FTSE 7365 36.90 0.50
CAC 5920 25.94 0.44
DAX 5928 37.99 0.65
EXCHANGE RATES
Value % Change
USD/INR 71.8 0.20
EURO/USD 1.102 0.07
USD/GBP 1.285 0.03
USD/JPY 109.1 0.06
COMMODITIES
Value %
Gold ($ / Oz) 1458.6 0.33
Silver ($ / Oz) 16.8 0.69
Crude Oil Futures 56.8 -0.09
Brent Oil ($ / Barrel) 62.0 -0.15
BOND YIELD
Value % Chg bps
IND10 Yr Bond Yield 6.57 1.4
ADR
Value $ %
Dr Reddys Labs 39.74 0.03
HDFC Bank 61.57 -0.45
ICICI Bank 13.61 -0.44
Tata Motors 12.02 -0.33
Wipro 3.94 0.77
Vedanta Ltd 8.64 -0.58
INFOSYS 9.75 -0.41
Centre may extend anti-dumping levy on Chinesechemical importsThe government may extend existing anti-dumpingduty on imports of a Chinese chemical used inpharmaceuticals industry as the commerce ministryinsisted on continuation of the levy.
The continuation of the duty on imports of 'SodiumNitrite' from China was recommended by the ministry'sinvestigation arm Directorate General of TradeRemedies (DGTR) after concluding a probe into it.
Deepak Nitrite Ltd had earlier filed an applicationbefore the directorate for initiating sunset review ofthe anti-dumping duty on the imports of the chemicalfrom China. It had requested for extension of anti-dumping duties on the imports.
Factory output shrinks 4.3%; Lowest in almost 8 yearsIndia’s industrial production shrank for the secondconsecutive month in September, its worstperformance in the series that began April 2012,highlighting the persistent structural slowdown in theeconomy and firming up expectations of furthermonetary easing next month with scant signs of aturnaround.
As per the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), factoryoutput contracted 4.3% in September, the lowest inalmost eight years in this series, which began April 2012(with 2011-12 as the base year) and the lowest sinceOctober 2011 when compared with the earlier serieswith base year 2004-05. IIP had contracted 5% inOctober 2011.
The decline was steeper than the 1.4% reduction seenin August, suggesting that the economy may haveslumped further in the second quarter of the currentfinancial year. Industrial production grew 4.6% inSeptember 2018.
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Infosys CEO hit by more charges in second whistle-blower letterInfosys Ltd has received a second whistle-blower complaint accusing chief executive Salil Parekh ofmisdemeanours; days after a similar letter prompted the company's board to institute an independent probe.The second whistle-blower urged the chairman and directors to act against Parekh.
"Though it is a year and eight months since Parekh joined the company, he operates from Mumbai inviolation of the condition that the CEO has to be based in Bengaluru. What is stopping the board to insist onhis movement to Bengaluru," said the whistle-blower in the unsigned letter to Infosys chairman and co-founder Nandan Nilekani and independent directors.
Claiming to be an employee in the $11-billion company's finance department, the whistle-blower said he wasunable to disclose his identity fearing retaliation for the damning disclosures he was making against Parekh. "Iam an employee working in the finance department. I am submitting this whistle-blower complaint as thematter is so volatile that I fear retaliation if I disclose my identity. Please excuse me for the same, but thematter is of grave importance.“
As an employee and a shareholder, the whistle-blower said it was his duty to bring to the notice of thechairman and the board a few facts that were eroding the value systems of the company.
The news may not impact the stock badly as the ADR of the company has not been impacted.
Adani Ports & SEZ PAT surges 73% to Rs 1,059cr on one-time tax benefitAdani Ports and Special Economic Zone said that its consolidated net profit climbed 72.4 per cent YoY to Rs1,059.2 crore in the September quarter. The numbers were aided by Rs 319 crore one-time tax benefit.
Revenue for the quarter rose 8.1 percent to Rs 2,821.6 crore from Rs 2,608 crore in the year-ago period.
"Though Q2 was subdued, container volume continues to be strong. We expect H2FY20 to be better andconfident of achieving 224-228 MMT of cargo throughput in FY20," said Karan Adani, Chief Executive Officerand Whole Time Director of APSEZ.
Britannia Q2 FY20 PAT increased 33% to Rs 403crBritannia reported 8% growth in total revenues at Rs 3,049cr. There was an inordinate increase in milk pricesduring the quarter, which impacted dairy business, said Britannia Industries MD Varun Berry.
Netprofit jumped 33% to touch Rs 403cr on lower tax outgo. The company continued to premiumise itsbiscuits portfolio during the quarter and launched new flavours for some of its existing brands. The companywitnessed a pickup in its new category of other bakery products as well. "We have also seen sequentialgrowths in some of the new category launches and our plan is to scale up salted snacks in West and croissantin East and South," Mr. Berry added.
JB Chemicals approved buy back worth Rs 130cr
Board has approved buy-back of up to 29.54 lakh equity shares of the Company at Rs. 440 per shareaggregating to amount not exceeding Rs. 130cr.
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Sales for the quarter grew 5% YoY to Rs 448.5cr. Other Income surged 117% YoY to Rs 18.5cr. EBITDAincreased 37.2% YoY to Rs 100.3cr. Margin expanded 450bps YoY and stood at 22.3% as a result of costoptimization. PAT surged 82% to Rs 93.8cr on the back of lower tax expenses. Domestic formulationsrevenues increased 15.4% while exports formulations declined 4% to Rs 161cr.
Coal India Q2 FY20 PAT grew 14% YoY on lower tax expensesRevenues for the quarter dipped 6% to Rs 20383cr. Operating margin witnessed 210bps decline and came inat 17.7%. Tax expenses sharply declined and stood at Rs 754cr (-63% YoY), which helped company to report14% YoY growth in PAT for the quarter. As on Sep-19, company has cash & equivalents of ~Rs 37,050cr.
Adani Gas Q2 FY20 highlightsVolume increased 9% in CNG and 6% in PNG in Q2 FY20 on YoY basis. Revenue from Operations increased12% YoY to Rs 503cr. Operating EBITDA has increased 29% YoY to Rs 136cr. PBT for the quarter increased46% to Rs 125cr vs. Q2 FY19 Rs 86cr. PAT surged 137% YoY to Rs 120cr on lower tax expenses.
Sheela Foam Q2 FY20 PAT surged to Rs 58.7crRevenues dipped 7% YoY and stood at Rs 497cr. Margin witnessed 630bps expansion to 14.2% on the back oflower RM prices. Domestic sales came in at Rs. 411cr compared to Rs. 450cr of Q2 FY19, decrease of 8.7%due to much lower demand for discretionary products. PAT for the quarter surged 141% YoY on strongoperational show and lower tax outgo.
Varroc Engineering Q2 FY20 PAT declined 77% to Rs 22.9crRevenues declined 10% YoY to Rs 2703cr. Margin contracted substantially 190bps YoY and came in at 8.2%.Finance cost increased 70% YoY to Rs 35.1cr. Lacklustre operational show led to sharp 77% decline in PAT toRs 22.9cr. The profit for the quarter was impacted negatively by lower revenue which was largely driven bymarket decline, operating losses at new facilities during the ramp-up phase, higher interest and depreciationcosts and losses in China JV.
Natco Pharma Q2 PAT down 35% to Rs 118crRevenues for the quarter were down by 11% at Rs 486cr. EBITDA margin saw sharp 1270bps cut and stood at27.7%. PAT declined 35% YoY to Rs 118cr. The decline in revenues and profits compared to the same periodlast year is primarily due to the anticipated drop in Tamiflu (oseltamivir product) sales in the USA and Hep Csales in India. Exports formulations sales stood at Rs 225cr while domestic formulations revenues at Rs 122cr.
Edelweiss reports weak set of results for Q2 FY20•Total Revenues at Rs 2,405cr (Rs 2,676cr for Q2FY19)•Ex-Insurance Pre Provision Operating Profit at Rs 373cr (Rs 677cr for Q2 FY19)•Ex-Insurance Profit After Tax at Rs 93cr (Rs 322cr for Q2 FY19)•Ex-Insurance RoAA for the quarter at 1.0% and RoE 5.1%•Consolidated Profit After Tax of Rs 51cr (Rs 272cr for Q2FY19)•Group Gross Networth Rs 9,870cr which includes CDPQ investment in equity convertible Instrument. DebtEquity reduced further to 3.4x (5.2x for Q2FY19)
Sun TV Q2 FY20 highlightsRevenues came in 7% YoY higher at Rs 826cr. Other Income grew 17% to Rs 75.2cr. EBITDA declined 15% YoYon higher costs across the board. PBT for the quarter dipped 26.5% to Rs 400.4cr. Lower tax expenses helpedcompany to post 1% increase in PAT at Rs 369cr.
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Muthoot Finance Q2 FY20 results previewNII may grow 13% YoY to Rs 1261cr. Operating profit is expected to increase 17% to Rs 864cr. PAT for thequarter may increase 5% YoY to Rs 510cr.
Cadila Healthcare Q2 FY20 results previewDomestic sales are expected to grow 25.5% YoY to Rs 1414cr, led by addition of consumer healthcarebusiness. US business is expected to see 10% YoY increase and Europe business is expected to grow at 15%YoY for the quarter.
Margins are expected to shrink ~320bps YoY to 20% due to change in product mix and addition of relativelylow margin consumer business.
Overall revenues may grow 12% YoY to Rs 3329cr. PAT may see 11% decline on weaker margins and higherfinance costs.
Vodafone CEO says India venture is at risk of collapse after AGR rulingVodafone Group Plc's Indian venture may be headed for liquidation unless the government eases off ondemands for mobile spectrum fees, the phone company's chief executive officer said.
The Supreme Court ordered Vodafone Idea to pay $4 billion of fees linked to past frequency licences lastmonth. With another airwave auction approaching, Vodafone Idea already has $14 billion in debt and UK-based Vodafone has pledged not to put any more money into the business.
India's mobile phone industry has been convulsed by a price war since Mukesh Ambani, launched low-pricerival Reliance Jio Infocomm in 2016. Ambani says the government should decline his rivals' requests for aid.
Key U.S. IndicesDow 27,691 0 -S&P 500 3,092 5 0.16%Nasdaq 8,486 21 0.26%
S&P 500 and Nasdaq Make New HighsThe S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs as Trump said a trade deal with China is near butdid not offer any clarity on roll back of tariffs.The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed absolutely flat in about 5 years at 27,691. The Dow had been up asmany as 79 points and down as many as 56 points. The blue chip index was held back by weakness in Boeingand Caterpillar.
The S&P 500 edged up 5 points or 0.16% at 3,092.
The Nasdaq Composite rose 21 points or 0.26% to 8,486.
On Monday, the Dow had finished up around 10 points, or less than 0.1%, to 27,691, the S&P 500 indexdeclined 6 points, or 0.2%, to 3,087 while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 11 points, or 0.1%, to 8,464.
The finish was a disappointment for bulls because the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 had hit new intradayhighs in the morning. The pullback may have been due less to Trump than to investor reluctance to pushstocks higher without any firm news.
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What happened
At the Economic Club of New York, President Donald Trump said a "significant phase one" trade deal couldhappen soon, but that he would only accept it if the agreement worked to the advantage of U.S. workers andbusinesses.
He also blamed Fed policy tightening for impeding the economy's progress and the benefits of his tax cuts.News reports also suggested Trump may put off for another six months a decision on whether to place tariffsof up to 25% on European auto imports, ahead of the Wednesday deadline.
Comments on trade were closely watched after Trump, over the weekend, said discussions with China andthe U.S. were going "very nicely," but cautioned that recent reports about an agreement to roll back tariffs,as a part of a preliminary trade resolution, weren't accurate.
StocksBoeing was off 1.1% after The Wall Street Journal said the company has lost more than 200 orders for 737MAX jets. The company blamed airline bankruptcies and customers swapping out for other models. Thedecline trimmed nearly 28 points from the Dow.
On Monday, Boeing said it expects Federal Aviation Administration approval for the troubled jet by the end ofDecember, with planes returning to service by the end of January. Whether that occurs is unclear. SouthwestAirlines has said March is more likely.
Caterpillar's business is influenced by its prospects in China. So no news from the president set off someselling, which cut an additional 11 points from the blue chips.Disney, up 1.35%, launched its Disney + streaming service Tuesday to compete against Netflix, Amazon Primeand other services. The Disney service, which costs $6.99 a month, was hit with technical glitches on its firstday, which the company blamed on overwhelming demand.
Walgreens was higher after buyout giant KKR said it has approached the drugstore chain about taking thecompany private.
Facebook said on Tuesday it would launch a payment system across Facebook, Messenger, Instagram, andWhatsApp. Shares of the social-media giant finished higher by 2.7%.
TechnicalsThe S&P 500 hit 3,100 in the morning beforeTrump's New York appearance and then pulled back. In addition,the S&P's relative strength index briefly topped 75, a key technical level that traders watch. A reading above75 is a possible sell signal.
So, expect a lot of resistance from the 3.100 level.
In a largely political speech in New York, Trump claimed credit for economic growth, low unemployment, anda stock market at record highs, but again attacked Federal Reserve monetary policy before claiming that aU.S. - China trade deal was "close".
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Fed chatterFederal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida theorized about global bond yields remaining aroundhistorically lower levels in prepared remarks at a policy conference in Zurich.
The Fed No. 2's comments speak to challenges that the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee faces inthe coming months as it weighs attempts to stave of a recession, with federal-fund rates at a 1.50%-1.75%range after three straight cuts by policy makers in as many meetings.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is slated to speak and take questions from lawmakers on Capitol Hill today(Wednesday).
Other marketsThe yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell slightly to 1.916%.
December gold on Comex fell $3.40, or 0.2%, to $1,452.10 an ounce, hanging around a three-month low.
West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery fell 0.1% to $56.80 a barrel on the New YorkMercantile Exchange, after shedding 0.7% on Monday.
The ICE U.S. dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's performance against six major rivals, was up 0.1%,recovering some its losses from a day ago.
Key European Indices were up with the exception of the Spanish IBEX 35, which was down 0.87%.
The German Dax was up 0.65%, the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.50% and the all Europe Stoxx 600 higher by 0.38%.
In Spain, the IBEX fell after news that ruling Socialist Party has reached a pact with the left wing Undo'sPodemos party. The pact comes two days after a general election that left Prime Minister Pedro Snchez'sSocialists without enough votes to form a government.
The new coalition will still need the support of regional and other leftist groups, which some say won't beeasy. The coalition between these parties may make it tough for Spain to achieve its debt targets.
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DATA & EVENTS
OPENING TRADING CALLS
NOTE: ALL TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS GIVEN BY PCG TEAM ARE ON REAL TIME BASIS. A TRADINGRECOMMENDATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERED CLOSED OR SQUARED OFF AS AND WHEN A STOPLOSS OR TARGET ISTOUCHED IN INTRADAY TRADING. DO NOT WAIT FOR TARGET ACHIEVED OR STOPLOSS MESSAGE TO CLOSE THEPOSITIONS. REFER JAMMOON FOR TIMELY ENTRY AND EXIT FROM RECOMMENDATIONS.
No. Reco Date Company Name Reco Cost SL Target
1. 11/11/19 CONCOR NOV FUTURE BUY 585-582 577 599
2. 11/11/19 TORNTPOWER BUY 297.55-288 285 314
3. 07/11/19 BANKNIFTY 21 NOV 31300 CALL BUY 30750-30600 30480 31150
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DATA & EVENTS
RESULTS ANNOUNCED DURING MARKET HOURS
COMPANY Q2FY20 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
Sales (Rs Cr)
NP (Rs Cr)
Sales NP Sales NP
Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd 15709.0 457.8 5.8 -7.6 -5.1 26.9
Alkem Laboratories Ltd 2264.0 380.5 18.0 46.1 22.4 103.2
Astrazeneca Pharma India Ltd 208.5 14.4 29.2 57.9 1.9 -33.0
Shalby Ltd 1257.3 129.2 5.4 266.0 -4.3 -45.3
Indo Count Industries Ltd 568.1 10.6 11.6 -58.8 12.0 -69.4
NESCO Ltd 120.6 74.0 20.6 50.2 54.2 95.1
Kolte Patil Developers Ltd 191.9 -14.6 -9.1 PL -67.2 PL
Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd 857.0 99.8 -15.6 7.9 -9.6 -5.5
India Cements Ltd 1269.4 5.1 -11.2 LP -15.2 -92.1
Aban Offshore Ltd 177.9 -364.0 -19.1 LL 30.0 LL
PL: Profit to Loss, LP: Loss to Profit, LL: Loss to Loss
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DATA & EVENTS
RESULTS ANNOUNCED AFTER MARKET HOURS
COMPANY Q2FY20 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
Sales (Rs Cr)
NP (Rs Cr)
Sales NP Sales NP
Hindalco Industries Ltd 29657.0 974.0 -8.8 -32.7 -1.1 -8.4
Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd 2821.2 1059.2 8.2 72.4 1.0 3.0
General Insurance Corporation of India 11863.8 -707.4 7.5 PL -29.6 PL
Jindal Stainless Ltd 3291.1 39.5 -0.2 LP 0.8 -17.0
Sheela Foam Ltd 497.3 58.7 -7.1 141.1 -3.3 51.7
PL: Profit to Loss, LP: Loss to Profit, LL: Loss to Loss
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DATA & EVENTS
RESULT CALENDAR-BSE500
DATE COMPANY DATE COMPANY DATE COMPANY DATE COMPANY
13-Nov Rain Industries Thermax 3M India Blue Star
Jai Corp Finolex Cables Himadri Specialt R C F
B H E L Lux Industries SpiceJet Oracle Fin.Serv.
A B B Bata India Galaxy Surfact. G M D C
Pidilite Inds. H U D C O Jagran Prakashan New India Assura
Zydus Wellness Coffee Day Enter Adani Power Muthoot Finance
Cadila Health. Kaveri Seed Co. Deepak Fert. Navneet Educat.
Lemon Tree Hotel Uflex Natl. Aluminium Adani Green
Cera Sanitary. Omaxe MMTC Aarti Inds.
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LIST OF NIFTY STOCKS
COMPANY CLOSE R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2
NIFTY 50 11913 11979 11946 11900 11867 11821
ADANIPORTS 388 393 391 387 384 380
ASIANPAINT 1774 1805 1789 1779 1763 1753
AXISBANK 734 744 739 730 725 716
BAJAJ-AUTO 3240 3271 3256 3238 3223 3205
BAJAJFINSV 8925 9025 8975 8875 8825 8725
BAJFINANCE 4167 4211 4189 4166 4144 4121
BHARTIARTL 372 377 374 371 369 366
BPCL 517 532 525 512 504 491
BRITANNIA 3125 3228 3177 3143 3092 3058
CIPLA 454 463 459 455 451 448
COALINDIA 210 214 212 209 207 204
DRREDDY 2813 2844 2828 2812 2796 2779
EICHERMOT 21341 21997 21669 21489 21161 20982
GAIL 130 134 132 129 127 123
GRASIM 763 780 771 763 755 747
HCLTECH 1146 1167 1156 1143 1133 1120
HDFC 2236 2254 2245 2231 2222 2207
HDFCBANK 1265 1279 1272 1261 1254 1243
HEROMOTOCO 2591 2682 2637 2611 2565 2540
HINDALCO 200 205 203 201 198 197
HINDUNILVR 2080 2115 2097 2083 2065 2051
ICICIBANK 497 508 503 494 488 479
INDUSINDBK 1445 1483 1464 1436 1417 1388
INFRATEL 221 227 224 219 216 210
INFY 703 712 708 703 698 694
IOC 135 137 136 135 134 133
ITC 259 264 261 260 258 257
JSWSTEEL 252 256 254 251 249 246
KOTAKBANK 1619 1638 1628 1610 1601 1583
LT 1418 1442 1430 1419 1407 1396
M&M 576 595 585 578 568 561
MARUTI 7121 7308 7215 7144 7051 6981
NESTLEIND 14128 14808 14468 14260 13919 13711
NTPC 118 123 121 119 117 115
ONGC 139 142 140 138 137 135
POWERGRID 192 195 193 192 190 189
RELIANCE 1428 1453 1441 1432 1419 1410
SBIN 319 324 321 317 315 311
SUNPHARMA 421 433 427 417 411 401
TATAMOTORS 172 175 174 171 170 167
TATASTEEL 401 409 405 400 395 390
TCS 2101 2158 2130 2110 2082 2062
TECHM 769 777 773 771 767 764
TITAN 1154 1178 1166 1152 1140 1126
ULTRACEMCO 4136 4213 4175 4141 4103 4069
UPL 551 571 561 551 541 531
VEDL 153 158 155 154 151 150
WIPRO 257 260 258 256 254 252
YESBANK 73 76 75 72 70 67
ZEEL 305 322 314 300 291 277
SUPPORT - RESISTANCE
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