data assimilation using an adjoint model first test
DESCRIPTION
Data assimilation using an adjoint model First Test. By S. Taguchi TransCom Paris 14 June 2005 Collaboration of AIST and FastOpt. Continuous + adjoint annual mean flux. Formulation c: Observation vector G: Transport matrix x:Flux area, prior estimate and uncertainty - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Data assimilation using an adjoint model
First Test
By S. TaguchiTransCom Paris
14 June 2005Collaboration of AIST and FastOpt
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Continuous + adjoint annual mean flux
• Formulation• c: Observation vector• G: Transport matrix• x:Flux area, prior estimate and uncertainty• Results(Data error, 0.1,0.5,1.0)• Future
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Question; Not to be answered
• Relationship between the definition of adjoint and the current adjoint sensitivity
• How to derive the adjoint sensitivity used in this study
• Posterior error covariance
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Questions; to be answered
• How the problem is set up• How we compensate the limitations in the c
urrent adjoint sensitivity (forget trend)• Sensitivity of the solution to the specificatio
ns in observation errors.
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continuous + adjoint annual flux
• c=Gx• c: observation vector CMDL – Base Run• G: Transport Matrix Adjoint sensitivity + Prior• x: Unknown source 3x3 grids Annual mean• σc c: Obsrvation Uncertainty• σx Prior flux ucertainty f – z• JBLS=(c-Gx)t X(c-Gx) + (f-z)t W(f-z)• No off-diagonal elements in X and W.
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[c.1]Observation vector
• c= Observations – baseline, 1997 one year• Annual Mean; adjusted• Point barrow/CMDL from CD-ROM/WDCGG• 1 hour observations• Mean and standard deviation; 6h• Mean Fitting• Standard deviation Error (Min=1,0.5,0.1ppm)• Missing period Base run
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[c.2] Three steps in making Baseline
• NIRE-CTM-96 ECMWF 90-97• Initial 350ppm , 90-97 year ECMWF• (1) Fossil90+CASA+Takahashi02• (2) CASA’ = Trend Adjusted CASA• (3) Annual mean adjusted, Last time series are baseline.
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[c.3]Forward model forBase run and adjoint sensitivity
• NIRE-CTM-96 one used for TransCom 2.• 2.5x2.5x15 (144x73x15~1.6 x 10 5)• 6 hour• Semi-lag, non-local PBL, Mass fixer• European Centre for Medium Range Weathe
r Forecast, ERA-15, Operational(p),• 1979-1999
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[G.1] Adjoint sensitivity;output of a transport model runni
ng in reverse time direction• 3D (144x73x15)• Max 31 days, 6hour time resolution• Specify; periods(=<31d),and point in 3D• If 1 ppm/6h is given continuously at a specified period at a point, how much c
oncentrations will be obtained at observational site.
• 1979-1999
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[G.2]1460 fixed period adjoint sensitivity
• number terminal time start time• 1. 6UTC,1st,Dec,1996 0UTC,1st,Jan,1997• 2. 12UTC,1st,Dec,1996 6UTC,1st,Jan,1997• 3.• ..• ..• 1460, 0UTC,31st,Dec,1997 18UTC,31st,Dec,1997• Ignore all information prior to 31 days !
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Blue=CMDLRed=OriginalGreen=Trend
adjusted Baseline
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Observation vector and
Observation error
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Area of unknown flux Prior flux uncertainty = sum of flux at 9 grid with 1ppm/6h
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Solution
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Min=0.1
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Min-0.5
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Min=1.0
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Updated SourceMinObs Error=1.Init=1996.Dec.31
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Future
• Extend Integration time Consistent annual 3x3grids.
• By 9 years time series 9 years mean , grid
• By 9 Stations annual mean, grid• By 12 Stations monthly mean, 3x3 grid• ( Minami-torishima, Izana, Samoa, etc.)• Column integrated concentrations