d1.1 environmental information requirements report · 1.1 david arthurs pveo november, 2015...
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User Needs and High-Level Requirements for Next Generation Observing Systems for the
Polar Regions
D1.1 Environmental Information Requirements
Report
February, 2016
Prepared for: European Space Agency
Prepared by: Polar View Earth Observation Limited
Polaris: Next Generation Observing Systems for the Polar Regions
European Space Agency
D1.1 Environmental Information Requirements Revision 2.1 February, 2016
REVISION HISTORY
VERSION NAME COMPANY DATE OF CHANGES COMMENTS
1.0 Ed Kennedy PVEO September, 2015 Release to team for
input
1.1 David Arthurs PVEO November, 2015 Reorganization
1.2 Ed Kennedy PVEO November, 2015 Additional edits
2.0 Ed Kennedy PVEO January, 2016 Release to ESA
2.1 Ed Kennedy PVEO February, 2016 Minor edits
DISTRIBUTION LIST
ORGANIZATION NAME NUMBER OF COPIES
European Space Agency Ola Gråbak 1 electronic copy
European Space Agency Arnaud Lecuyot 1 electronic copy
Steering Committee 1 electronic copy
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................. 1
2 STUDY METHODOLOGY ...................................................................................................... 2
3 DRIVERS OF INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS .................................................................... 5
3.1 Science Drivers ................................................................................................... 5
3.1.1 Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Changes .................................................. 6
3.1.2 Land Surface and Use Changes ....................................................................... 7
3.1.3 Ocean (Sea) State Changes.............................................................................. 7
3.1.4 Coastal Zone Changes ..................................................................................... 8
3.1.5 Ecosystem Changes ......................................................................................... 8
3.1.6 Species/Organisms and Food Web Changes ................................................... 8
3.1.7 Sea Ice Changes ............................................................................................... 9
3.1.8 River/Lake Ice Changes ................................................................................. 10
3.1.9 Snow Changes ............................................................................................... 10
3.1.10 Ice Sheet/Glacier/Ice Cap Changes ............................................................... 10
3.1.11 Permafrost Changes ...................................................................................... 11
3.2 Operational Drivers .......................................................................................... 11
3.2.1 Environmental Impact Assessment ............................................................... 12
3.2.2 Engineering Design ........................................................................................ 13
3.2.3 Operations Planning ...................................................................................... 15
3.2.4 Route Planning .............................................................................................. 16
3.2.5 Safe Navigation and Operations ................................................................... 17
3.2.6 Risk Management .......................................................................................... 19
3.2.7 Emergency Response .................................................................................... 20
3.2.8 Search and Rescue......................................................................................... 21
3.2.9 Weather Forecasting ..................................................................................... 22
3.2.10 Climate Change Adaptation .......................................................................... 23
4 ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS......................................................... 25
4.1 Scientific User Community Requirements ....................................................... 25
4.1.1 Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Change Information ............................. 25
4.1.2 Land Surface and Use Change Information ................................................... 27
4.1.3 Ocean State and Coastal Zone Change Information ..................................... 27
4.1.4 Ecosystem Change Information .................................................................... 28
4.1.5 Species/Organisms and Food Web Change Information .............................. 28
4.1.6 Sea Ice Change Information .......................................................................... 29
4.1.7 River/Lake Ice Change Information ............................................................... 29
4.1.8 Snow Change Information ............................................................................. 30
4.1.9 Ice Sheet/Glacier/Ice Cap Change Information ............................................ 31
4.1.10 Permafrost Change Information ................................................................... 31
4.2 Operational User Community Requirements................................................... 31
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4.2.1 Environmental Impact Assessment Information .......................................... 31
4.2.2 Engineering Design Information ................................................................... 32
4.2.3 Operations Planning Information .................................................................. 33
4.2.4 Route Planning Information .......................................................................... 33
4.2.5 Safe Navigation and Operations Information ............................................... 34
4.2.6 Risk Management Information ..................................................................... 35
4.2.7 Emergency Response Information ................................................................ 36
4.2.8 Search and Rescue Operations Information ................................................. 36
4.2.9 Weather Forecasting Information ................................................................. 37
4.2.10 Climate Change Adaptation Information ...................................................... 39
4.3 User Requirements Spanning Multiple Domains ............................................. 42
4.3.1 Sea Ice ............................................................................................................ 43
4.3.2 River and Lake Ice .......................................................................................... 43
4.3.3 Snow .............................................................................................................. 43
4.3.4 Atmosphere ................................................................................................... 43
4.3.5 Ice Sheet ........................................................................................................ 43
4.3.6 Permafrost ..................................................................................................... 43
4.3.7 Land ............................................................................................................... 43
4.3.8 Glaciers and Ice Caps ..................................................................................... 44
4.3.9 Oceans ........................................................................................................... 44
4.3.10 Icebergs ......................................................................................................... 44
5 REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 45
5.1 Current Information Requirements ................................................................. 45
5.2 Deficiencies in Available Information Products and Services .......................... 53
5.3 Future Information Requirements ................................................................... 55
5.4 Political, Economic, Social/Cultural and Technological (PEST) Trends ............ 58
5.4.1 Impacts of Political/Policy Trends ................................................................. 58
5.4.2 Impacts of Economic Trends ......................................................................... 63
5.4.3 Impacts of Technological Trends ................................................................... 65
5.4.4 Impacts of Social/Cultural Trends ................................................................. 66
APPENDIX 1: REFERENCES TO SCIENCE DRIVERS ..................................................................... 68
Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Changes ..................................................................... 68
Land Surface and Use Changes .......................................................................................... 72
Ocean (Sea) State Changes................................................................................................. 73
Coastal Zone Changes ........................................................................................................ 75
Ecosystem Changes ............................................................................................................ 75
Species/Organisms and Food Web Changes ...................................................................... 78
Sea Ice Changes .................................................................................................................. 79
River/Lake Ice Changes ...................................................................................................... 81
Snow Changes .................................................................................................................... 81
Ice Sheet/Glacier/Ice Cap Changes .................................................................................... 82
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Permafrost Changes ........................................................................................................... 83
APPENDIX 2: REFERENCES TO INFORMATION PARAMETER REQUIREMENTS ......................... 85
Atmosphere Research ........................................................................................................ 85
Climate Research ................................................................................................................ 85
Weather Research .............................................................................................................. 86
Land Surface and Use Change Information ........................................................................ 86
Ocean State and Coastal Zone Change Information .......................................................... 87
Ecosystem Change Information ......................................................................................... 88
Species/Organisms and Food Web Change Information ................................................... 88
Sea Ice Change Information ............................................................................................... 88
River/Lake Ice Change Information .................................................................................... 89
Snow Change Information .................................................................................................. 89
Ice Sheet/Glacier Change Information ............................................................................... 90
Permafrost Change Information ........................................................................................ 90
Environmental Impact Assessment Information ............................................................... 90
Engineering Design Information ........................................................................................ 91
Operations Planning Information ....................................................................................... 91
Route Planning Information ............................................................................................... 92
Safe Navigation and Operations Information .................................................................... 93
Risk Management Information .......................................................................................... 94
Emergency Response Information ..................................................................................... 96
Search and Rescue Operations Information ...................................................................... 96
Weather Forecasting Information ...................................................................................... 96
Climate Change Adaptation Information ........................................................................... 98
APPENDIX 3: USER REQUIREMENTS SPANNING MULTIPLE DOMAINS .................................. 103
Global Cryosphere Watch Observation Requirements .................................................... 103
Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review Tool (OSCAR) .................................. 103
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report ...................................................................................... 104
Sentinel Convoy Analysis Reports .................................................................................... 104
Arctic in Rapid Transition Network (ART) Priority Sheets ................................................ 105
ESA DUE Permafrost Requirements Baseline Document and Final Report v2 ................ 107
GEO 2012-2015 Work Plan – Annual Update 27 November 2014 .................................. 108
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar ................................................................................................................. 111
Outline of a Technical Solution to a Global Cryospheric Climate Monitoring System .... 112
SAR Science Requirements for Ice Sheets ........................................................................ 112
Coordinated SAR Acquisition Planning for Terrestrial Snow Monitoring ........................ 112
Ice Information Services: Socio-Economic Benefits and Earth Observation Requirements 2007 Update ..................................................................................................................... 113
The Contribution of Space Technologies to Arctic Policy Priorities ................................. 113
Earth Observation and Cryosphere Science: The Way Forward ...................................... 115
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Preliminary scientific needs for Cryosphere Sentinel 1-2-3 products ............................. 116
Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Data Products for Climate – 2011 Update ..................................................................................................................... 116
WMO 2012 Survey on the Use of Satellite Data .............................................................. 117
Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere ....................................................................................................................... 117
Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs ......................................... 119
Mission Concepts for a Polar Observation System Final Report...................................... 119
INTERACT Research and Monitoring ................................................................................ 120
APPENDIX 4: PEST TRENDS ..................................................................................................... 123
Political / Policy Trends ............................................................................................. 123
Economic Trends ....................................................................................................... 139
Social / Cultural Trends ............................................................................................. 147
Technological Trends ................................................................................................ 150
APPENDIX 5: STEERING COMMITTEE OF EXPERT ADVISORS ................................................. 161
APPENDIX 6: ORGANIZATIONS CONSULTED .......................................................................... 162
APPENDIX 7: REFERENCES ...................................................................................................... 164
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Polar Code Information Requirements ...................................................................... 18
Table 2: Information Parameter Requirements for Atmosphere Research ............................ 25
Table 3: Information Parameter Requirements for Climate Research .................................... 26
Table 4: Information Parameter Requirements for Weather Research .................................. 26
Table 5: Information Parameter Requirements for Land Surface and Use Change Research . 27
Table 6: Information Parameter Requirements for Ocean State and Coastal Zone Change Research ........................................................................................................................... 27
Table 7: Information Parameter Requirements for Ecosystem Change Research .................. 28
Table 8: Information Parameter Requirements for Species/Organisms and Food Web Change Research ........................................................................................................................... 29
Table 9: Information Parameter Requirements for Sea Ice Change Research ........................ 29
Table 10: Information Parameter Requirements for River/Lake Ice Change Research ........... 30
Table 11: Information Parameter Requirements for Snow Change Research ......................... 30
Table 12: Information Parameter Requirements for Ice Sheet/Glacier Change Research ...... 31
Table 13: Information Parameter Requirements for Permafrost Change Research ............... 31
Table 14: Information Parameter Requirements for Environmental Impact Assessment ...... 32
Table 15: Information Parameter Requirements for Engineering Design ............................... 32
Table 16: Information Parameter Requirements for Operations Planning ............................. 33
Table 17: Information Parameter Requirements for Route Planning ...................................... 34
Table 18: Information Parameter Requirements for Safe Navigation and Operations ........... 34
Table 19: Information Parameter Requirements for Risk Management ................................. 35
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Table 20: Information Parameter Requirements for Emergency Response ............................ 36
Table 21: Information Parameter Requirements for Search and Rescue Operations ............. 37
Table 22: Information Parameter Requirements for Weather Forecasting Operations ......... 37
Table 23: Information Parameter Requirements for Climate Change Adaptation Operations39
Table 47: Overview of Products – Atmosphere ....................................................................... 99
Table 48: Overview of Products – Oceans ............................................................................. 100
Table 49: Overview of Products – Terrestrial ......................................................................... 100
Table 50: Essential Climate Variables ..................................................................................... 101
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Logic Model for Identification of Information Gaps ................................................... 3
Figure 2: Concept Map of Polar Science and Research Drivers ................................................. 6
Figure 3: Concept Map of Polar Operational Drivers ............................................................... 12
Figure 4: Relative Importance of Atmosphere Parameters ..................................................... 46
Figure 5: Relative Importance of Land Parameters ................................................................. 47
Figure 6: Relative Importance of Ocean Parameters ............................................................... 48
Figure 7: Relative Importance of Sea Ice Parameters .............................................................. 48
Figure 8: Relative Importance of Lake / River Ice Parameters ................................................. 49
Figure 9: Relative Importance of Snow Parameters ................................................................ 50
Figure 10: Relative Importance of Ice Sheet Parameters ........................................................ 51
Figure 11: Relative Importance of Glacier / Ice Cap Parameters ............................................. 52
Figure 12: Relative Importance of Iceberg Parameters ........................................................... 52
Figure 13: Relative Importance of Permafrost Parameters ..................................................... 53
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1 INTRODUCTION
The objective of the Polaris Programme is to respond to the evolving demands for space-
based monitoring of the polar regions by developing the next generation of space
infrastructure, developing novel concepts for integrated information services, and exploring
new partnerships with user communities. This Polaris study was motivated by the rapidly
increasing interest in the polar regions and the need to provide integrated information to
support the research and operations of a wide range of user communities, including
scientific, industry, governmental and non-governmental organizations and Arctic residents.
The study results are intended to help develop new space mission concepts for the polar
regions that address evolving scientific and operational information needs.
This report addresses the first objective of the Polaris study: to review, identify and
consolidate user community environmental information requirements for the polar regions.
It provides the findings of the two primary lines of enquiry for the study – literature review
and stakeholder consultations – and the results of the information needs analysis. Chapter 2
summarizes the contents of the four primary study deliverables and the methodology
employed to address the Statement of Work. The third chapter provides a discussion of the
key drivers of information requirements for the two primary categories of users – science
and operations. The fourth chapter documents the specific requirements that each of these
user categories have for environmental information. The final chapter discusses deficiencies
in currently available information products and services, and provides an analysis of user
needs for information currently and in the medium- and long-term and the impacts of key
political/policy, economic, social/cultural and technological trends on those changing needs.
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2 STUDY METHODOLOGY
This chapter summarizes the study methodology for the identification of gaps in currently
available environmental information in the polar regions, and the contents of the four
primary study deliverables. The methodology is illustrated in Figure 1. Overall, there are
three technical reports and a summary report. The study findings are based on four lines of
enquiry: a literature review, a review of polar data web portals, stakeholder consultations,
and a stakeholder workshop. At each step of the process, the project team’s work was
reviewed by a steering committee of expert advisors that were chosen to reflect the
interests of different polar information communities. The composition of the steering
committee is listed in Appendix 5.
The Environmental Information Requirements Report (D1.1, this report) addresses the Polaris
study objective to review, identify and consolidate user community environmental
information requirements for the polar regions. Input to this report was derived from two
primary lines of enquiry for the study – literature review and stakeholder consultations.
Some 250 documents were reviewed to identify user requirements and the scientific and
operational drivers of those requirements. Fifty representatives of the broad range of user
communities active in the polar regions were consulted (see organization list in Appendix 6).
The report provides the findings from the literature review and consultations and the results
of a first level analysis of current information needs and gaps. It also summarizes user input
on how needs are expected to change over the next 5-15 years and how key political/policy,
economic, social/cultural and technological trends may impact users’ future information
needs.
The Gaps and Impact Analysis Report (D2.1, under separate cover) addresses the study
objective to identify information gaps considering existing and planned earth observation
(EO) and integrated (navigation/telecommunications/surveillance) systems, space and non-
space based. A literature review was conducted of available sources of EO-based products
and services, as well as information available from other space assets (e.g. global navigation
satellite systems (GNSS), telecommunications and space automatic identification systems (S-
AIS)) and non-space assets (e.g. ground- and airborne-based sensors). The first level analysis
of information needs and gaps was then refined and reviewed by experts in the information
provider community and by a cross-section of users and providers at a workshop as part of
the second level analysis of information gaps. Finally, new integrated products and services
to address the gaps were specified at a high level and the possible impacts and political and
legal implications of their development were analyzed.
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Figure 1: Study Methodology
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The Preliminary Observation Requirements Report (D3.1, under separate cover) addresses
the study objective to establish a set of endorsed, high-level mission requirements reflecting
the gaps and perform a preliminary assessment of the high-level operations requirements
for supplying these integrated services.
The Study Report (under separate cover) provides an overview and summary of the overall
study findings and the conclusions drawn from the analysis of findings. It contains a synthesis
of critical elements of the Environmental Information Requirements, Gaps and Impact
Analysis and Preliminary Observation Requirements Reports.
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3 DRIVERS OF INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS
Environmental information requirements in the polar regions primarily result from or are
driven by two sets of activities: i) scientific and research pursuits and ii) operations in or
related to these regions.
There are a broad range of science/research pursuits in the polar regions related to the study
of changes taking place in a variety of domains or subject areas, including climate, oceans,
atmosphere, ecosystems, etc. The drivers include both national and international
science/research policies, strategies and programmes. Each of the domains being studied
requires access to (and in some cases generates) a variety of environmental information
types or parameters, which are discussed in Section 3.1. Examples of specific references to
drivers in the different domains found in the literature are provided in Appendix 1.
Operations in the polar regions take place in some of the most complex and dangerous
conditions on Earth. Those involved in such operations (e.g. transit and destination shippers,
fishermen, offshore oil and gas operators, coast guards, Indigenous food harvesters, etc.)
require access to reliable and often near-real-time information to plan and undertake their
activities. Section 3.2 discusses the range of activities involved in polar region operations
that drive information requirements.
3.1 SCIENCE DRIVERS
Science and research in the polar regions covers a broad range of disciplines, among which
there are significant relationships and overlaps. In some cases, the policy/
strategy/programme drivers are discipline-specific, while in many others they are
multidisciplinary. The complexity of the polar research and science domain is illustrated in
Figure 2 on the next page, which identifies the connections between the different types of
research being undertaken in the Arctic and Antarctic.
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Figure 2: Concept Map of Polar Science and Research Drivers
3.1.1 Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Changes
Interest in the changes taking place in the atmosphere over the polar regions, and the
impact this is having on global weather patterns, is growing. The changes are related to a
number of factors, including (Walsh, n.d.):
changes in the radiative forcing by greenhouse gases;
changes in the atmospheric circulation, contributing to Arctic warming, increased
precipitation and storminess;
decreases in ozone concentration; and
increases in the frequency of polar mesospheric clouds.
Of particular interest are atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions.
Nowhere on Earth is the evidence of global climate change more striking than in the polar
regions. According to the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), air
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temperatures in the Arctic were 4° Celsius (7° Fahrenheit) warmer in the first half of 2010
than in the 1968 to 1996 reference period. Satellite data show: that over the past 30 years,
Arctic sea ice cover has declined by 30 percent in September, the month that marks the end
of the summer melt season; that snow cover over land in the Arctic has decreased, and
glaciers in Greenland and northern Canada are retreating; and that permafrost is thawing
(NSIDC, 2015). The warming of the Arctic has significant impacts on the global climate. For
example, the melting of arctic snow and ice exposes darker land and ocean surfaces,
increasing absorption of the sun’s heat and further warming the entire planet, and increases
in glacial runoff and melted sea ice add more freshwater to the ocean, raising global sea
level and possibly slowing the ocean circulation that brings heat from the tropics to the poles
(Hassol, 2004).
Closely related to climate changes is research on weather changes in the polar regions.
Research is demonstrating that the warming Arctic is affecting day-to-day changes in the
atmosphere (i.e. weather) as well as long-term weather patterns (i.e. climate). For example,
recent studies focusing on the impacts of warming temperatures in the Arctic on the
Jetstream suggest that there may be a link with more persistent weather patterns in Eurasia
and North America (Francis, 2015) (Abraham, 2015). There is evidence that one result of the
Arctic warming faster than the mid-latitudes is weaker west to east winds in the jet and a
‘wavier’ Jetstream. When the Jetstream’s waves grow larger, they tend to move eastward
more slowly, resulting in the weather they generate also moving more slowly, creating more
persistent weather patterns or pattern ‘stickiness’ (e.g. extended cold snaps and heat
waves).
3.1.2 Land Surface and Use Changes
While not as dramatic as the changes in the ocean areas of the polar regions, changes on land (e.g. land use, land cover, soil moisture, vegetation structure, water quality, etc.) are also of growing interest to the science and research community. In particular, the impacts of human activities on the land in the polar regions and how land use change impacts the regions’ climate are research priorities.
3.1.3 Ocean (Sea) State Changes
Changes in the ocean state (e.g., temperature, salinity, level, biogeochemistry, etc.) in the
polar regions is a topic of great interest to polar scientists and researchers. There is strong
evidence that ocean-atmosphere-ice interactions have significant impacts on climate change
and these interactions are mentioned in several publications related to science drivers of
information requirements (Kennicutt, Chown, & al, 2014), (Wegner & al, 2010), (AOSB:
MWG, 2011), (MOSAiC Coordination Team, 2014) and (Hofmann, St. John, & Benway, 2015).
Ocean warming is a key factor in the increase in energy stored in the climate system,
accounting for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971 and 2010 (high
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confidence) with about 1% stored in the atmosphere. It is very likely that the mean rate of
global averaged sea level rise was 1.7 mm/yr between 1901 and 2010 and 3.2 mm/yr
between 1993 and 2010 (IPCC, 2014). The Arctic Ocean’s enhanced sensitivity to ocean
acidification due to freshwater inputs from rivers, glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet is also
a growing concern (AMAP, 2013).
3.1.4 Coastal Zone Changes
The coastal zone in polar regions is a particularly sensitive and important zone of interaction
between land and sea and a region that provides essential ecosystem services. In the Arctic,
it is also a zone that supports indigenous peoples’ lifestyles and in which there are growing
infrastructure investment and security concerns (Forbes, 2011). Earlier melting of landfast
sea ice and advancing permafrost thawing is causing increasing coastal erosion, impacting
coastal infrastructure and local populations. For example, a number of Inuit villages along
the coast of Alaska are preparing to relocate because of the encroaching sea (AMAP, 2011).
As a consequence of these developments, there is increasing research interest in the impacts
of environmental and social change in the coastal zone.
3.1.5 Ecosystem Changes
Polar Region ecosystems are impacted by a wide variety of changes – in climate, oceans, sea
ice and species, for example. Since the polar regions are one of the regions where the effects
of climate change are most pronounced, reduction of sea ice thickness and extent will result
in significant changes for their entire ecosystems and will affect all levels of marine
biodiversity. Good knowledge of marine biodiversity and how it will respond to multiple
pressures is critical, and microbial and benthic ecosystems, deep sea regions and sea ice
associated (sympagic) habitats, as well as the winter period and adaptations to low
temperature have been identified as major knowledge gaps (Majaneva & al, 2015). Thawing
permafrost is causing wetlands in some areas to dry out and creating new wetlands
elsewhere, and the reduction of ice cover over rivers, lakes and seas is changing marine and
freshwater animal and plant communities. These ecosystem changes directly impact Arctic
people, affecting their supplies of water, fish, timber, traditional/local foods and grazing land
(AMAP, 2011). For millennia, northern Indigenous peoples co-evolved with their ecosystems.
Continued access to Arctic resources is linked to livelihoods, long-term economic
development and overall cultural survival, which is closely tied to access to living resources
and a meaningful role in resource governance (Nymand Larsen & Fondahl, 2015).
3.1.6 Species/Organisms and Food Web Changes
Significant climate change impacts on Polar Region species and organisms, along with
implications for food webs (i.e. links among species in an ecosystem – essentially who eats
what) are being reported. For example, in the Arctic, shrinking sea ice is impacting the ability
of polar bears to access food and reducing their reproductive success, and forcing walruses
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further from their feeding grounds (GreenFacts, 2015). The melting of ice can affect the
availability of physical habitats for algae, and the temperature and salinity of surface waters,
potentially disrupting the whole food web. In the Antarctic, a very important species to the
Antarctic food web – krill – is reported to have declined by about 80% since the 1970s
(Smetacek, 2008), and emperor penguins, which breed on sea ice surrounding continental
Antarctica, have also experienced a decline in numbers by up to 50% in places (BAS, 2015).
Closely linked to ecosystem changes, species/organisms and food web changes in the Arctic
and Antarctic are a relatively small but important area of polar research. The contribution of
Indigenous knowledge to this work must be recognized. A significant example is the recent
development of the Alaskan Inuit Food Security Conceptual Framework by Inuit Circumpolar
Council (ICC) – Alaska (ICC-Alaska, 2015). The project allowed Alaskan Inuit to share what
their food security is, how to assess changes occurring and how to move forward in a way
that will strengthen their food security.
3.1.7 Sea Ice Changes
By far the most important and best-documented indication of global climate change is the
reduction of sea ice extent and thickness in the Arctic. Although there can be significant
annual fluctuations in sea ice extent, there is a clear declining trend (NSIDC, 2015). In
contrast, the sea ice surrounding Antarctica has increased slightly in recent years, reaching a
record maximum extent in 2014. The reason for the dichotomy between the Arctic and
Antarctic is not understood and is the topic of much current scientific investigation (e.g. see
(Comiso & al, 2015) and (NSIDC, 2014)).
Changes in sea ice have many impacts on, and feedbacks and interactions with, other
components of the Arctic system, including atmosphere and ocean interactions, energy and
mass budgets, marine ecosystems, and the economy and society (Renner & al, 2015). There
is evidence that atmospheric changes are the major driver of sea ice change and that
feedbacks due to reduced ice concentration, surface albedo, and ice thickness contribute to
additional local atmospheric and oceanic influences and self-supporting feedbacks (Döscher
& al, 2014). The sea ice mass budget results from energy fluxes at the top and bottom of the
ice that control thermodynamic growth and melt, ice deformation due to winds and ocean
currents, and the mass flux of ice out of the Arctic (e.g. from the Arctic into the Atlantic
Ocean primarily through Fram Strait between Greenland and Svalbard). The shifts of the
retreating ice edge and transitional ice conditions causes a suite of chemical and physical
processes and stressors that impact both the magnitude and nature of changes to Arctic
marine ecosystems (Wegner & al, 2010).
The economic and societal impacts of sea ice reduction are considerable; for example,
increased shipping, increased access for resource exploration and extraction, fishing and
ecotourism in the Arctic are all facilitated by reduced sea ice extent and thickness; and
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improved governance will be required to ensure equitable access to and use of resources
and recognition of the rights of local populations.
3.1.8 River/Lake Ice Changes
The presence of frozen water on land (e.g. lakes and rivers) affects energy, moisture, gas and
particle fluxes, clouds, precipitation, hydrological conditions, and atmospheric and oceanic
circulation. Lake and river ice play a key role in the physical, biological, and chemical
processes of cold region freshwater and also have important economic implications. These
range from transportation (e.g. ice-road duration, open-water shipping season) to the
occurrence and severity of ice-jam flooding which can cause serious infrastructure and
property damage (IGOS, 2007). Lake ice cover is important for modelling the energy and
water balance of high-latitude river basins, for boreal climate modelling, and for improving
numerical weather prediction. River-ice is an important modifier of hydrologic processes and
its duration and break-up impact the timing and magnitude of extreme hydrologic events
(e.g. low flows and floods).
3.1.9 Snow Changes
Snow cover plays a critical role in the climatological, hydrological and ecological systems of
the polar and other regions through its influence on the surface energy balance (e.g.
reflectivity), water balance (e.g. water storage and release), thermal regimes (e.g.
insulation), vegetation and trace gas fluxes. The livelihoods and well-being of Arctic residents
and many services for the wider population depend on snow conditions. Changing snow
conditions (e.g. reduced summer soil moisture, winter thaw events and rain-on-snow
conditions) are negatively affecting commercial forestry, reindeer herding, some wild animal
populations and vegetation. Indigenous peoples’ access to traditional foods is being
adversely affected by reduced snow cover, with negative impacts on human health and well-
being (Callaghan & al, 2012). While evidence suggests reduced snow accumulation and
changes to the seasonal timing of accumulation and melt, this is complicated by the high
variability of snow regimes over space and time (IGOS, 2007). There is very high confidence
that the extent of Northern Hemisphere snow cover has decreased since the mid-20th
century by 1.6% per decade for March and April, and 11.7% per decade for June, over the
1967 to 2012 period (IPCC, 2014).
3.1.10 Ice Sheet/Glacier/Ice Cap Changes
Ice sheets (i.e. Antarctica and Greenland) are continental-scale bodies of ice that flow under
their own weight towards the ocean, glaciers are smaller ice masses (globally approximately
160,000 glaciers are registered, covering an area of about 785,000 km2) and larger ice caps
(e.g. Iceland, Svalbard, Alaska and Patagonia) are ice masses that cover less than 50,000 km²
of land area. Glaciers and ice caps account for only 0.5% of the total land ice, but their
contribution to sea level rise during the last century exceeded that of the ice sheets (IGOS,
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2007). Analysis by Rignot and Thomas in 2002 suggested that more than 0.3 mm per year of
the current increase in sea level rise is attributable to mass loss from the Greenland and
Antarctic Ice Sheets, with a more than doubling of mass loss in the last decade from both
Greenland and the West Antarctic ice sheet. In part because current ice sheet models are
not realistically coupled to ocean models, and partly due to lack of understanding of the role
of melt water in outlet ice stream acceleration, ice sheet models are currently not able to
accurately predict how ice sheet melting will contribute to sea level rise in the future. Since
runoff from glaciers and ice caps is vital for drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and
industry in many mountain ranges, severe adverse consequences for future water availability
are expected from accelerating glacier retreat (IGOS, 2007).
3.1.11 Permafrost Changes
Permafrost (i.e. sub-surface earth materials that remain at or below 0°C continuously for two
or more years) is widespread in Arctic, sub-Arctic, and high-mountain regions, and in ice-free
areas of the Antarctic and sub-Antarctic (IGOS, 2007). Air temperatures in the Arctic are
expected to increase at roughly twice the global rate and climate projections indicate
substantial loss of permafrost by 2100. A global temperature increase of 3°C means a 6°C
increase in the Arctic, resulting in a predicted loss of anywhere between 30% to 85% of near-
surface permafrost (UNEP, 2012). Permafrost thawing has significant impacts on the built
infrastructure (e.g. resulting ground subsidence causes damage to buildings, roads, airports
and pipelines), ecosystems (e.g. the number of wetlands and lakes are decreasing, reducing
critical habitat, particularly for migratory birds) and climate (e.g. carbon released to the
atmosphere in the form of methane amplifies global warming) (EPA, 2015). Shorter seasons
for the use of ice and snow roads severely impact northern communities that rely on land
transportation of goods to maintain reasonable retail costs and ensure economic viability
(AMAP, 2011).
3.2 OPERATIONAL DRIVERS
In addition to science and research in the polar regions, the other key drivers of
environmental information requirements are operational processes in the regions or
elsewhere that affect or support the activities in the regions. While there are relationships
and overlaps between operational domains, there is a lower level of complexity, as
illustrated in Figure 3.
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Figure 3: Concept Map of Polar Operational Drivers
3.2.1 Environmental Impact Assessment
Environmental impact assessments (EIAs) are a typical prerequisite to the development of
any major infrastructure or resource development project in the polar regions. Such
undertakings include construction of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, power transmission lines,
roads, railways and ports) and development of mine sites and oil and gas extraction sites.
EIAs consider the likely environmental effects of the proposed project, the adequacy of
proposed mitigation measures to protect the environment, and the significance of effects
after mitigation measures are implemented. Regulators consider many factors when
assessing the environmental impacts of projects, including for example (NEB, 2015):
physical and meteorological environment;
soil, soil productivity and vegetation;
wetlands, water quality and quantity;
fish, wildlife, and their habitat;
species at risk or species of special status and related habitat;
heritage resources;
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traditional land and resource use; and
human health, aesthetics and noise.
In the European Union, EIAs are governed by the European Union Directive (85/337/EEC) on
Environmental Impact Assessments (known as the EIA Directive), which has been amended
several times (European Commission, 2015). Under the EU directive, an EIA must provide
certain information to comply, including the following categories:
Description of the project
Alternatives that have been considered
Description of the environment
Description of the significant effects on the environment
Mitigation
Non-technical summary (EIS)
Lack of know-how/technical difficulties
3.2.2 Engineering Design
The design of ships and offshore platforms and facilities for use in the polar regions must
take into account the unique environmental characteristics and challenges of operations in
the Arctic and Antarctica, and in particular, weather, sea ice and iceberg considerations.
Good ice performance of ships requires design of a hull shape that has a low ice resistance
and allows for different manoeuvres required in ice as well as good propulsion thrust, which
can be achieved with design of the propeller, sea water pumping on ice for lubrication (ice
breakers), and the hull lines so that propeller-ice interaction is minimized. Design of ice
capable ships is undertaken in accordance with the requirements of the International
Association of Classification Societies (IACS) Requirements Concerning Polar Class (IACS,
2011) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) International Code for Ships
Operating in Polar Waters (known as the Polar Code) (IMO, 2015a) and involves
consideration of design aspects such as (Riska, 2010) (Canadian Coast Guard, 2012):
Ice resistance – the time average of all longitudinal forces due to ice acting on the ship,
divided into categories of breaking, submergence and sliding forces.
Performance in ice – measures by which the ship performance in ice is described, such as
speed(s) achieved in certain level ice thickness, penetration of certain size ridges with a
stated impact speed and ship turn of 180° in less than certain time in certain ice
thickness.
Hull shape design – aims at: minimizing the ice resistance; ensuring good manoeuvring
characteristics; enabling the ship to go astern as much and as well as the operational
description requires; and minimizing the amount of ice impacting on the propeller(s).
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Machinery layout – to produce the required thrust for ship propulsion with the main
engine, power transmission and the propeller.
Hull and machinery strength – requires knowledge of the ice loads acting on different
regions of the ship hull, including considerations of ice pressure, load height, total ice
force, machinery loading
Construction materials – the critical factor associated with steel in ice capable ships is
resistance to brittle fracture from low temperatures and high loading conditions
Winterisation – design aspects influenced by cold weather or ice cover, but not covered
in the structural design of hull or machinery covered by the ice rules (e.g. heating ballast
water and fuel oil, clearing the sea bays, avoiding or mitigating the effects of ice
accretion, etc.)
Guidance on the design of offshore structures is provided by a number of international and
national regulatory, standards and industry bodies. For example, the Organization for
International Standardization Technical Committee 67 (ISO/TC 67) has developed a number
of standards related to offshore structures (ISO, 2015). ISO 19906, issued in 2010, codifies
established practice for Arctic offshore structure design based on input from leading experts
from industry, contractors, government agencies, and academia (Winkler & Strømme, 2014).
The British Standards Institution has 18 published standards and 12 standards under
development related to design of offshore structures (BSI, 2015). The Canada Oil and Gas
Installations Regulations (SOR/96-118) prescribe requirements for offshore installations and
platforms (Justice Canada, 2009). The American Petroleum Institute has published five
recommended practices for the design, construction, and maintenance of offshore
structures used in oil and natural gas drilling and production operations (API, 2014). And in
2011, the independent foundation Det Norske Veritas (DNV) published Design of Offshore
Steel Structures, General (LRFD Method) (DNV, 2011).
One of the key challenges in designing offshore structures is predicting the ice forces on the
platforms, which is often the controlling factor in platform design and operational procedure
development. Four methodologies are generally used in addressing ice engineering issues,
each with its own advantages and disadvantages (Timco, 2010):
Physical modelling in the laboratory – physically scaling the structure and the ice
properties and using scaling laws to determine ice loads and interaction behavior;
Numerical modelling – using sophisticated software to model the ice forces for specific
interaction scenarios;
Data mining – determining ice loads by re-analyzing previous field measurements; and
Field studies – conducting dedicated field programs to obtain in situ information on ice
properties and loads.
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The presence of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground must be taken into consideration
in the design of buildings and facilities on land in the Arctic. Knowledge of thermal and
ground ice conditions is critical for sound engineering design in permafrost regions. As
indicated in Section 2.1.13, permafrost thawing due to global warming is a growing concern,
and special design and construction techniques are necessary to ensure that buildings and
structures do not exacerbate this problem.
3.2.3 Operations Planning
Operations within the polar regions, both on land and at sea, require careful planning and
preparation. Detailed planning is required for a range of operational activities in the Arctic
and Antarctic, including science and research field operations, travel and operations by
vessels and land vehicles in or through the regions, positioning and operation of offshore
drilling platforms, and traditional hunting. Effective planning helps to ensure safety of life,
proper functioning of equipment and protection of the polar environment.
Scientists and researchers working in the harsh conditions of the polar regions need to be
well prepared to ensure the success of their field work and their personal health and safety.
Government research programs have taken action to prepare their personnel through
training programs and documentation. An example is Antarctica New Zealand, which
publishes a Handbook providing information to help scientists and researchers prepare for
work at the Scott Research Station (Antarctica New Zealand, 2013), and a Field Manual
containing detailed information on operating safely in the field in Antarctica (Antarctica New
Zealand, 2012). A second example is the Participant’s Handbook to help prepare personnel
deployed to Antarctica by the British Antarctic Survey, which also provides pre-deployment
training, including a First Aid, Oil Spill Response and Winter Teams Training Week (British
Antarctic Survey, 2014). A final example is the Canadian Polar Continental Shelf Program’s
Arctic Operations Manual, which provides advice on conducting Arctic field work (Polar
Continental Shelf Program, 2012).
Planning of safe and effective transits by vessels to and through the polar regions is
principally focused on assessment of weather, sea ice and iceberg conditions. Analysis of
historical data covering the proposed route and time window of the operation can provide
key information to help plan the optimum routing. Planning of travel by vehicles on land
requires analysis of information about permafrost conditions and the state of winter roads
over frozen lakes and rivers. The predicted weather conditions for the operational period is
also a critical factor.
Given the high costs and risks associated with offshore oil and gas operations in the Arctic,
careful operations planning is of particularly critical importance. Similar to vessel transits,
sea ice and iceberg conditions are key planning considerations. Decision-support tools for
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operational planning such as SSPA’s Transatlantic IceMaster (SSPA, 2010), Enfotec Technical
Services’ IceNav and IonGeo’s Narwhal help oil and gas operators to plan their operations
using a risk-based approach to help ensure safety of operations, resource optimization and
minimal environmental impact.
Indigenous populations in the Arctic still rely on sustainable access to ‘country food’, which
are traditional foods like arctic char, halibut, seal, whale, caribou, musk ox, etc. (Ottawa Inuit
Children's Centre, 2015). Accessing these food resources requires advance planning to
ensure that it is safe to travel over the ice in the prospective hunting and fishing areas. For
example, changes in sea ice coverage, thickness and timing of formation cause changes in
ocean currents, intensity of storms, distribution of marine flora and fauna, prey dynamics
(shifts in food web dynamics), accessibility to hunting locations, and traveling and hunting
safety, all of which require adjustments in Indigenous hunting and processing strategies (ICC-
Alaska, 2015).
Information accessible from, for example, Polar View’s ice edge monitoring service, which
provides up-to-date information on ice edge location, regions of land-fast ice, moving ice and
historical averages of ice cover in different areas of the Arctic, helps Northern residents
navigate safely and efficiently when hunting or travelling on ice (Polar View, 2015). However,
in some regions (e.g. in NW Greenland), changes in seasonal fast ice thickness and duration
have already necessitated major shifts in local fishing and hunting opportunities, with ice-
based long-line fishing and seal hunting replaced by much less productive boat-based fishing
and hunting.
3.2.4 Route Planning
Mariners that will be travelling through ice-covered waters must pay particular attention to
planning their routes. Route or passage planning is conducted in accordance with principles
set out in the IMO International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code) (IMO,
2015a). Appraisal of the contemplated voyage takes into consideration factors such as
expected hazards along the intended route, the condition and state of the vessel, special
characteristics of the cargo, appropriate scale, accurate and up-to-date charts to be used,
appropriate meteorological and ice information, etc. Voyage planning addresses the
following factors: plotting of the intended route or track of the voyage; elements to ensure
safety of life at sea, safety and efficiency of navigation, and protection of the marine
environment; and details of the voyage or passage plan recorded on charts and in a voyage
plan notebook or on computer disk.
For voyages in the polar regions, route planning involves consideration of additional factors,
starting with a thorough assessment of the ice conditions that the vessel is likely to
encounter along the entire length of its planned route. The following limitations of the
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elements of the ice navigation system plan are paramount, as identified in the CCG
guidelines Ice Navigation in Canadian Waters (Canadian Coast Guard, 2012): availability of
ice information; diminished effectiveness of visual detection of ice hazards in late season or
winter voyages; and increased difficulty of detecting ice hazards in combined conditions of
open ice and reduced visibility. Varying reliability of communications in both polar regions
also adversely affects the capability to receive up to date information.
Additional information that should be marked on the charts for planned voyages through
ice-covered waters include (Canadian Coast Guard, 2012): the anticipated ice edge, areas of
close pack ice and the fast ice edge; any areas of open water where significant pack ice may
be expected; safe clearance off areas known to have significant concentrations of icebergs;
and any environmentally sensitive areas where there are limitations as to course, speed, or
on-ice activities. As shipping continues to increase in volume and operators with less
experience or less capable ships begin to venture into these regions, even areas where ANY
ice can be expected must be noted.
3.2.5 Safe Navigation and Operations
The IMO Guidelines for ships operating in polar waters, the precursor to the Polar Code that
is now mandatory for ships operating in polar waters, succinctly summarize the unique risks
of navigating through the polar regions (IMO, 2010):
“Poor weather conditions and the relative lack of good charts, communication systems and
other navigational aids pose challenges for mariners. The remoteness of the areas makes
rescue or clean-up operations difficult and costly. Cold temperatures may reduce the
effectiveness of numerous components of the ship, ranging from deck machinery and
emergency equipment to sea suctions. When ice is present, it can impose additional loads on
the hull, propulsion system and appendages.”
Once vessels begin travelling through ice-covered waters, the focus shifts to tactical route
planning to ensure safe navigation on a day-to-day basis. It is critical to obtain daily detailed
information on ice conditions. Adjustments are made to the planned route to take the best
advantage of optimum ice conditions, including finding open water leads or first-year ice
leads in close ice or old ice fields and avoiding areas of ridging and pressure or potential
pressure (Canadian Coast Guard, 2012). Once a new route has been laid out, it has to be
checked for adequate water depth and the two sources of information reconciled so that the
best route through the ice is also safe. Any change in weather conditions, particularly
visibility or wind direction and speed, must also be considered in tactical planning.
Expertise in navigating through ice is a typical requirement in regulations and guidelines
concerning navigation in ice-covered waters. For example, the IMO Polar Code requires that,
while operating in polar waters, masters, chief mates and officers in charge of a navigational
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watch shall have special training for polar operation. The Polar Code requires that there are
enough trained personnel to cover all watches and permits the use of additional ice
navigators (IMO, 2015a). A second example, Transport Canada’s Guidelines for the Operation
of Passenger Vessels in Canadian Arctic Waters, also note the requirement under the Arctic
Shipping Pollution Prevention Regulations for an ice navigator to be on board vessels under
specific ice conditions (Transport Canada, 2005). In addition, insurers are increasingly
demanding verification of highly qualified Ice Navigators onboard ships entering polar waters
before confirming insurance coverage.
A special problem with safe navigation in polar waters has been the rapid increase in large
ship tourist cruises, especially in Greenland but also in Canada, Russia and Svalbard. Many
cruise ships do not have the necessary ice class, and only operate in the open water season
(which can still have a lot of icebergs), and sometimes in regions with poor bathymetric
surveys (e.g. in fjords, with an assumption of customary “safe” routes). Due to the limitations
in search and rescue (S&R) capabilities, two-ship operations are recommended, but rarely
followed, making these cruises especially prone to accidents. The Polar Code, when adapted
Arctic-wide, will improve this situation.
The Polar Code will take effect on 1 January, 2017. Among other things, the Polar Code
specifies a range of information that ships travelling in polar waters will be required to
access for planning and operations. The required information parameters are summarized in
Table 1. The colour coding indicates the current availability of the required information.
Operation of offshore structures and facilities like drilling platforms and underwater
pipelines in the polar regions is also a high risk venture. The need for and type of ‘real-time’
ice data depends upon the type and sensitivity of the operation to changing ice conditions,
the areal extent of the operations and the time required to relocate platforms. To ensure
safety of operations, typically any potentially dangerous ice within two to three days drift
from the facility is monitored multiple times every day, while ice further upstream is
updated daily (National Petroleum Council, 2015).
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Table 1: Polar Code Information Requirements
Historical Information
Current Conditions
Forecasts Risk Analysis Other Information
By location and
Date
By location By location By vessel, location
and date
By location
Temperature –
minimum low,
average low,
variance
Ice thickness –
maximum,
average,
variance
Iceberg
concentration –
average
Wind speed –
average,
variance
Wind direction –
average,
variance
Precipitation
Sea state
Cloud
Visibility
Temperature
Sea ice –
thickness,
ridging, extent,
age,
concentration,
pressure.
Icebergs -
locations
Wind
Sea state
Precipitation
Cloud
Visibility
Satellite images
Ice shelf extent
Fast ice extent
Temperature
Sea ice –
thickness, age,
extent,
concentration,
pressure
Iceberg
concentration
Wind
Sea state
Precipitation
Cloud
Visibility
Darkness
Vessel ice class
Season
Ice regime
Icebreaker
support
Vessel speed
Hydrographic
information
Aids to navigation
Places of refuge
Marine mammal
areas
Fuel locations
Designated
protected areas
Search and rescue
capability areas
Areas of cultural
heritage and
significance
Legend: Currently available to ships
Currently available, but not in a form accessible to ships
Not currently available
3.2.6 Risk Management
The dramatic environmental changes taking place in the polar regions are increasing risks for
operations in both the Arctic and Antarctica. While global warming is increasing seaborne
accessibility to the polar regions, it will also decrease the accessibility of inland areas. For
example, melting permafrost is increasing the risk of damage to roads and railways, as
illustrated by thawing of permafrost in Northern Canada causing the single-track railway line
to Churchill to buckle. This increases the risk of derailments, slows traffic and sometimes
halts it altogether (Emmerson & al, 2012). In addition, the reduction in sea ice increases the
distance over which waves gather strength and increases the exposure of the coast, putting
coastal infrastructure at risk. Climate change is also predicted to increase the risks of more
frequent extreme weather events, both on land and at sea in the polar regions. A side effect
of the rapidly melting ice sheets will be an increase in iceberg density, especially putting oil
and gas platforms at risk. More rapid snowmelt is increasing the risk of flooding. The
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increased variability in break-up and freeze-up dates, as well as the shorter period that lakes
and rivers are frozen, makes the use of ice roads over these water bodies in the north more
dangerous (IGOS, 2007).
Operational risks in the polar regions derive from a number of sources, including (Emmerson
& al, 2012):
Geographical remoteness – geographical isolation increase the potential consequences
and costs of risk events
Electronic communications challenges – space weather, interference and geostationary
satellite geometry mean that high-frequency radio and GPS are degraded, a major issue
for communications, navigation, and search and rescue
Weather – extreme temperatures pose infrastructure design and worker safety
challenges
Icing – ships and coastal infrastructure exposed to sea-spray and storms experience
machinery seizure and malfunctioning equipment
Icebergs and bergy bits – cause risks to vulnerable offshore infrastructure and shipping
Ecosystem disturbance – economic activities in the polar regions can result in disrupted
caribou and whale migration patterns, pollution of land and sea areas and increased
prevalence of invasive species
Operators in the polar regions have developed and implemented their own risk management
systems. For example, Shell has put in place a number of risk controls, including: a Maritime
Safety Manual, Ship Quality Assurance Standard, Risk Management – Hazard Register and
Process Safety documented controls, and health, safety, security and environment
competence profiles (Shell, 2010). Through the Council of Managers of National Antarctic
Programs (COMNAP), national Antarctic research organizations have developed a number of
risk management guidelines (e.g. COMNAP / SCAR Checklists for Supply Chain Managers of
National Antarctic Programmes for the Reduction in Risk of Transfer of Non-native Species)
(COMNAP and SCAR, 2010).
3.2.7 Emergency Response
A critically important part of the emergency management life cycle, emergency response
involves taking action during or immediately after an emergency or disaster for the purpose
of managing the consequences. Given the extreme operating conditions and increased levels
of science/research and economic activity in the polar regions, emergency response
requirements are expected to increase. Emergency response organizations face the
combined challenges of moving responders and their equipment from bases of operation to
the emergency site and minimizing loss of life and injury and damage to infrastructure,
facilities and the environment.
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Northern communities experience emergencies associated with natural events (e.g. forest
and tundra fires, floods, storm surges, permafrost melt, earthquakes, land, mud and snow
slides, avalanches, extreme cold weather, whiteouts, blizzards and high winds), as well as
man-made events (e.g. chemical and oil spills, fires, vehicle accidents). Indigenous peoples in
the Arctic have sustained their livelihoods based on their knowledge of natural systems for
thousands of years, but in some cases, such as travelling on sea, river and lake ice, this
traditional knowledge is becoming less reliable and emergency situations are increasing
(Funston, 2014).
A potential man-made emergency of particular concern is a major offshore oil spill, because
of the unique challenges of dealing with cleanup in a remote, hostile environment in sea ice
conditions. In 2013, the Arctic Council’s Emergency Prevention, Preparedness and Response
(EPPR) working group published a report with recommendations on the prevention of
marine oil spills in the Arctic (Arctic Council, 2013a). One of the recommendations is that
“Arctic Council states cooperate to improve the hazardous ice detection and monitoring
programs for Arctic waters. This includes satellite services, and the production and
dissemination of ice maps in real time.” At the Arctic Council meeting in 2013, member
states signed the Agreement on cooperation on marine oil pollution, preparedness and
response in the Arctic, which established measures for better collaboration between Arctic
countries on oil spill preparedness and response (Arctic Council, 2013b). In the North
American Arctic, there are considerable bilateral collaborative emergency response efforts
between the Canadian and US Coast Guards, while collaboration between Canada and
Greenland is at a more immature stage (Østhagen, 2014).
3.2.8 Search and Rescue
Search and rescue (S&R) can be defined as, “the search for, and provision of aid to, persons,
ships or other craft which are, or are feared to be, in distress or imminent danger” (DFO,
2000). In general terms, the primary objective of SAR operations is to prevent or minimize
loss of life or injury (DFO, 2000), (USCG, 2015). A secondary objective is typically to minimize
damage to or loss of property, where possible and when directly related to the first
objective.
Success in responding to emergencies involving severe injuries to personnel in remote
locations such as communities with no road access and offshore drilling platforms can be
impeded by inadequate communications infrastructure, increased response times, additional
evacuation risks or a reduced survival window (Schütz & al, 2015) (Kravitz & Gastaldo, 2013).
In May 2011 representatives of seven Member States of the Arctic Council (Canada,
Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, the Russian Federation, and Sweden) signed the
Agreement on Cooperation on Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue in the Arctic
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(Arctic Council, 2011). In principle, the Agreement has improved search and rescue response
in the Arctic by committing all parties to coordinate assistance to those in distress and to
cooperate in undertaking SAR operations. However, increases in operational capability have
been limited (e.g. Russia has built new S&R stations on the Arctic Coast and positioned a
fleet of icebreaking SAR response ships and aircraft in the Arctic and the US repositions a
limited response capability in the summer), and Canada has reduced its marine capability
and as yet does not position any air resources in theatre. Greenland has recently invested in
new large S&R helicopters, following Norway in Svalbard, to supplement their naval
inspection ships’ limited S&R capacity. The work to develop escape, evacuation, and rescue
(EER) systems for offshore operations is also reflected in numerous projects in the Arctic
such as the public-private sector SARiNOR project to create a collaborative national SAR
capability in Norway, and work on lifeboats designed for operating in ice-covered waters in
Northern Canada and the North Caspian Sea (Schütz & al, 2015).
Although no international accord similar to the Arctic S&R agreement exists for Antarctica,
five Southern Hemisphere countries (Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Argentina and South
Africa) all operate Rescue Coordination Centres and have responsibility for SAR in Antarctic
waters. The Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs actively promotes search
and rescue workshops – the third is scheduled to be held in June 2016 in Valparaiso
(COMNAP, 2015).
3.2.9 Weather Forecasting
Weather forecasting involves the following processes (Toth, 2005):
Observing current weather conditions (i.e. initial condition) using in situ sensors, ocean
buoys, weather balloons and satellite sensors
Digest observational information (i.e. data assimilation) by bringing data into a standard
format to produce model initial state
Project initial state into future (i.e. numerical weather prediction or NWP model
forecasting) based on laws of physics plus thermodynamics
Apply weather forecast information (i.e. assessing uncertainty of the forecast using
probabilistic approach)
Weather forecasting using modern numerical weather prediction methods is no more
complex in any location than in the polar regions, where it is hampered by a lack of data. The
importance of the polar regions for weather and climate prediction has been recognized by
the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) of WMO, which established the Polar
Prediction Project (PPP) for the period 2013-2022. The principal aim of the PPP is “to
promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and
environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on hourly to seasonal time scales.”
(WMO, 2015-1). Research is beginning to demonstrate that coupling between the
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atmosphere and other climate systems (i.e. ocean, ocean surface waves, sea ice and snow)
can improve short-range weather forecasts. There are a number of scientific challenges in
the context of polar [weather] prediction, as described in (Fairall & al, 2013), including the
scarcity of observations, the unique balance of physical processes, the key importance of sea
ice, and the rapidly evolving climate. Gaps in weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting
in polar regions are hampering reliable decision-making related to operations.
3.2.10 Climate Change Adaptation
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines adaptation as “adjustment in
natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects,
which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC, 2007). The European
Commission describes it this way: “Adaptation means anticipating the adverse effects of
climate change and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can
cause, or taking advantage of opportunities that may arise.” (European Commission, 2015).
According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),
adaptation involves five general activities: observation; assessment of climate impacts and
vulnerability; planning; implementation; and monitoring and evaluation of adaptation
actions (UNFCCC, 2014). In response to the requirements identified in the second
assessment of the adequacy of observing systems for climate in 2003, the GCOS program
developed an implementation plan to develop the global observing system for climate
(GCOS, 2004).
Everyone who lives, works or does business in the polar regions will need to adapt to climate
change and its impact on the environment. Adaptation measures will include: establishment
of new laws, regulations and standards (e.g. new fishing regulations to deal with fish stock
changes; new standards for construction in areas affected by thawing permafrost); changes
in food sources (from country food); Northern community relocations; investment in new
transportation networks to cope with the shorter ice road season; and enhanced search and
rescue operations to respond to increasing traffic and risks at sea, to name a few (AMAP,
2011).
The range of organizations that are working on adaptation to climate change is significant
and growing. At the international level, this includes, for example, the International Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC, n.d.), the United Nations Working Group on Climate Change (UNSCEB,
2015), C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (C40 Cities, 2015) and the CGIAR Global
Agricultural Research Partnership (CGIAR, 2015). At the regional level, this includes initiatives
such as the Arctic Council’s Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic project (Arctic Council,
2015), Asia Pacific Adaptation Network (APAN, 2015), European Environment Agency (EEA,
2013) and Environment Development Action in the Third World (enda, 2015). At the national
level, organizations like the US State, Local, and Tribal Leaders Task Force on Climate
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Preparedness and Resilience (The White House, 2013), Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific
and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO, 2015) and the Federal Ministry of Agriculture,
Forestry, Environment and Water Management in Austria (BMLFUW, 2015) are taking action
to prepare people in their jurisdictions to adapt to climate change.
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4 ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS
The literature review revealed user information requirements in two categories – those that
were connected with a specific scientific user community (Section 4.1) or operational user
community (Section 4.1) and those that span multiple user communities (Section 4.2).
4.1 SCIENTIFIC USER COMMUNITY REQUIREMENTS
This section tabulates the specific kinds of environmental information parameter
requirements that have been identified for users in different scientific domains. They are
presented by specific domain (see Appendix 2 for details and references).
4.1.1 Atmosphere, Climate and Weather Change Information
Atmosphere Research
Specific references to information parameters required for atmosphere research are
identified in Table 2.
Table 2: Information Parameter Requirements for Atmosphere Research
Parameter Reference
Absorbed shortwave radiation
Aerosol composition and amount
Brine content
Cloud optical depth
Cloud supercooled liquid water path distribution
Fractional snow coverage
Frost flowers
Glacier mass balance
Glacier/atmosphere interaction
Humidity
Ice dynamics
Leads
Sea ice texture
Snow conductivity
Snow density
Snow thickness
Temperature
Thickness of lake ice
Vertical structure of clouds
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs
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Climate Research
Specific references to information parameters required for climate research are identified in
Table 3.
Table 3: Information Parameter Requirements for Climate Research
Parameter Reference
Atmospheric boundary layer instability
Glacier calving front locations
Glacier grounding lines (Antarctica)
Glacier mass balance and dynamics
Lake ice cover
Landfast sea ice distribution
Low-level cloud
Sea ice concentration
Sea ice deformation
Sea ice drift
Sea ice melt and freeze seasons
Sea ice thickness
Snow cover
Wind speeds and directions
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs
Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010
Weather Research
Specific references to information parameters required for weather research are identified
in Table 4.
Table 4: Information Parameter Requirements for Weather Research
Parameter Reference
Atmospheric boundary layer
Low-level cloud formation
Leads and polynyas
Lake ice cover
Sea ice information
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010
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4.1.2 Land Surface and Use Change Information
Specific references to information parameters required for land surface and use change
research are identified in Table 5.
Table 5: Information Parameter Requirements for Land Surface and Use Change Research
Parameter Reference
Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR)
Inundation / soil moisture
Lake/wetland extent
Leaf area index (LAI)
Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)
River stage
The Role of Land-Cover Change in the High Latitude Ecosystems: Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle: Part 2
LCLUC Interactions with Arctic Hydrology: Links to Carbon Cycle
4.1.3 Ocean State and Coastal Zone Change Information
Specific references to information parameters required for ocean state and coastal zone
change research are identified in Table 6.
Table 6: Information Parameter Requirements for Ocean State and Coastal Zone Change Research
Parameter Reference
Aerosols
Aquaculture
Atmospheric circulation
Bathymetry
Climate
Clouds
Fairways
Fisheries
Fluxes
Gravity
Harbours
Iceberg mass
Landfast ice
Routes for underwater cables and pipelines
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs
Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010
Norwegian policies in ICZM and requirements for data and methods, adapting to climate change
Geographic Information Systems help manage coastal areas
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Sea level
Sea ice information
Sea surface salinity (SSS)
Sea surface temperature (SST)
Sea swell
Sea traffic
Sea-ice extent and volume
Sediments
Slope of the coast
Structural conditions
Swell
Temperature
Vegetation
Wind transport
4.1.4 Ecosystem Change Information
Specific references to information parameters required for ecosystem change research are
identified in Table 7.
Table 7: Information Parameter Requirements for Ecosystem Change Research
Parameter Reference
Breakout and melting of fast ice
Ice on inland water bodies
Lake ice thickness
Sea ice biological and chemical constituents
Snow on ice
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
4.1.5 Species/Organisms and Food Web Change Information
Specific references to information parameters required for species/organisms and food web
change research are identified in Table 8.
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Table 8: Information Parameter Requirements for Species/Organisms and Food Web Change Research
Parameter Reference
First year ice (FYI)
Multi-year ice (MYI)
Sea-ice convergence and divergence
Snow cover [on ice]
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
4.1.6 Sea Ice Change Information
Specific references to information parameters required for sea ice change research are
identified in Table 9.
Table 9: Information Parameter Requirements for Sea Ice Change Research
Parameter Reference
Aerosols
Albedo
Atmospheric circulation
Clouds
Density distribution of snow and ice
Flooding at the snow-ice interface
Fluxes
Freeboard
Ice drift velocity
Sea ice concentration
Sea ice extent
Sea ice melt
Sea ice motion
Sea ice thickness distribution
Snow depth
Temperature
Wind speeds and directions
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs
4.1.7 River/Lake Ice Change Information
Specific references to information parameters required for river/lake ice change research are
identified in Table 10.
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Table 10: Information Parameter Requirements for River/Lake Ice Change Research
Parameter Reference
Extent/location/duration of break-up flooding
First and last day of ice cover
Flood inundation area
Ice cover break-up sequence
Ice covering
Ice crystals
Ice jam locations
Ice type distribution
Lake ice thickness
Lake surface temperature
River ice jam
River/lake ice concentration
River/lake ice extent
Snow covered area on lake ice
Snow depth on lake ice
User requirements for the snow and land ice services – CryoLand
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
Cool research projects probe river ice life cycle
River ice mapping and monitoring using SAR satellites
4.1.8 Snow Change Information
Specific references to information parameters required for snow change research are
identified in Table 11.
Table 11: Information Parameter Requirements for Snow Change Research
Parameter Reference
Melting snow area
Snow cover fraction
Snow extent
Snow surface temperature
Snow surface wetness
Snow water equivalent
Snowmelt
Spectral surface albedo
User requirements for the snow and land ice services – CryoLand
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report
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4.1.9 Ice Sheet/Glacier/Ice Cap Change Information
Specific references to information parameters required for ice sheet/glacier change research
are identified in Table 12.
Table 12: Information Parameter Requirements for Ice Sheet/Glacier Change Research
Parameter Reference
Glacier elevation change
Glacier ice velocity
Glacier lakes
Glacier outlines
Glacier thickness
Icebergs
Snow/ice area on glaciers
User requirements for the snow and land ice services – CryoLand
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
ESA Climate Change Initiative
4.1.10 Permafrost Change Information
Specific references to information parameters required for permafrost change research are
identified in Table 13.
Table 13: Information Parameter Requirements for Permafrost Change Research
Parameter Reference
Surface temperatures Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs
4.2 OPERATIONAL USER COMMUNITY REQUIREMENTS
This section tabulates the specific kinds of environmental information parameter
requirements that have been identified for users in the different operational domains. They
are presented by specific operational domain (see Appendix 2 for details and references).
4.2.1 Environmental Impact Assessment Information
Specific references to information parameters required for environmental impact
assessment are identified in Table 14.
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Table 14: Information Parameter Requirements for Environmental Impact Assessment
Parameter Reference
Bathymetry
Current and proposed land use
Ecosystem dynamics
Geology
Ice conditions
Phases of ice processes
Phytoplankton production and decomposition
Plant and animal species
Sea ice cycles
Topography
Variability of ice edge
Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010
Environmental Impact Assessment in the Ice-Filled Waters, Do We Have the Necessary Information?
Australian guidelines for preparation of IEEs and CEEs
4.2.2 Engineering Design Information
Specific references to information parameters required for engineering design are identified
in Table 15.
Table 15: Information Parameter Requirements for Engineering Design
Parameter Reference
Bathymetry
Ice drift speed
Ice frequency
Ice island fragments
Ice islands
Ice keel depth and frequency of occurrence
Ice temperature and salinity
Ice thickness
Ice vertical strength
Seismic acceleration
Soil properties
Water depth
Water depth
Wave erosion
Development Drilling and Production Platforms
ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two: Technology and Operations
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report
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4.2.3 Operations Planning Information
Specific references to information parameters required for operations planning are
identified in Table 16.
Table 16: Information Parameter Requirements for Operations Planning
Parameter Reference
Floe size
Ice (sail height
Ice draft
Ice elevation
Keel draft
Large ice masses
Meteorological conditions
Meteorological forecasts
Oceanographic conditions
River and lake ice thickness
Sea ice charts
Sea ice concentration
Sea ice edge location
Sea ice edge movement
Sea ice forecasts
Sea ice multi-year ridges and hummocks
Sea ice pressure
Sea ice pressure
Sea ice ridge length
Sea ice ridging intensity
Sea ice sail height
Sea ice thickness
Sea ice type
Snow thickness
Underwater profiles of icebergs
Void spaces in deformed ice
ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two: Technology and Operations
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report
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4.2.4 Route Planning Information
Specific references to information parameters required for route planning are identified in
Table 17.
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Table 17: Information Parameter Requirements for Route Planning
Parameter Reference
Ice and iceberg charts
Sea ice information
Thickness of lake ice
ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two: Technology and Operations
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010
4.2.5 Safe Navigation and Operations Information
Specific references to information parameters required for safe navigation and operations
are identified in Table 18.
Table 18: Information Parameter Requirements for Safe Navigation and Operations
Parameter Reference
Bergy bits
Breakout events
Cracks
First year ice
Floe size
Fresh-water and sea ice extent and thickness
Grounded ice ridges
Growlers
Sea ice age/type
Sea ice cover
Ice drift monitoring and forecasting
Sea ice edge location
Ice on inland water bodies
Iceberg draft
Landfast (fast) ice
Leads and polynyas
Meltponds
Multi-year ice
Pack ice pressure
Permafrost
ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two: Technology and Operations
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs
Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010
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Quantity of multi-year ice floes and ridging
Sea ice concentration
Sea ice deformation
Sea ice drift and deterioration
Sea ice freeboard and surface elevations
Sea ice concentrations (total and partial)
Sea ice location and extent
Sea ice ridges
Sea ice stages of development
Sea ice thickness
Sea level or sea-surface height
Snow cover
Snow on ice
4.2.6 Risk Management Information
Specific references to information parameters required for risk management are identified in
Table 19.
Table 19: Information Parameter Requirements for Risk Management
Parameter Reference
Sea ice cracking networks
First year sea ice
Hydrographic data
Multi-year sea ice
River ice duration and break-up
Satellite navigation information
Sea ice bottom
Sea ice concentration
Sea ice movements
Sea ice ridges
Sea ice strength
Sea ice thickness
Sea ice type
Snow grain shape
Snow grain size
Arctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North
ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two: Technology and Operations
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report
Perspectives for a European Satellite-based Snow Monitoring Strategy: A Community White Paper
Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010
IMO Polar Code
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Snow liquid water content
Snow stability
Snow stratigraphic structure
Snow strength
Snowmelt
Weather information
4.2.7 Emergency Response Information
Specific references to information parameters required for emergency response are
identified in Table 20.
Table 20: Information Parameter Requirements for Emergency Response
Parameter Reference
Air temperature
Average wind and current directions
Historical weather data
Leads and polynyas
Monthly or seasonal maximum, minimum, mean values for wind and current speeds
Ocean current data
Precipitation
Sea ice drift characteristics
Sea ice timing of freeze-up
Surface current
Temperatures
Transition to winter conditions
Water temperature
Wave
Wave heights
Wind
ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two: Technology and Operations
Guidelines for Offshore Oil Spill Response Plans
In Environmental Impacts of Arctic Oil Spills and Arctic Spill Response Technologies
4.2.8 Search and Rescue Operations Information
Specific references to information parameters required for search and rescue operations are
identified in Table 21.
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Table 21: Information Parameter Requirements for Search and Rescue Operations
Parameter Reference
Sea ice concentration
Sea ice drift
Sea ice rubble accumulation
Sea ice topography
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4.2.9 Weather Forecasting Information
Specific references to information parameters required for weather forecasting operations
are identified in Table 22.
Table 22: Information Parameter Requirements for Weather Forecasting Operations
Parameter Reference
Aerosols
Air quality
Air-sea momentum flux
Albedo of snow and ice surfaces
Atmospheric/oceanic chemistry
Cloud microphysics
Clouds
Direct flux
Glaciers
Humidity
Ice sheets
Sea ice thickness distribution
Icing
Lake ice cover
Latent heat
Leads
Marginal sea ice zone
Meltponds on sea ice
Moisture
Ocean salinity profile
Ocean surface currents
Ocean surface gravity waves
Ocean surface roughness
Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: From Minutes to Months
High Arctic Weather Stations
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report
Observational Aspects of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project
Workshop Report on Predicting Arctic Weather and Climate and Related Impacts
ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two: Technology and Operations
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs
Perspectives for a European Satellite-based Snow Monitoring Strategy: A Community White Paper
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Ocean surface temperature
Ocean surface wind stress
Ozone profiles
Permafrost
Precipitation
Pressure
River ice freeze-up and breakup times
Lake ice freeze-up and breakup times
Sea ice concentration
Sea ice types
Sea ice cover
Sea ice deformation
Sea ice deformation and redistribution during ridging
Sea ice drift
Sea ice extent
Sea ice forecasts
Sea ice freeze-up and breakup times
Sea ice mass balance
Sea ice sails and keels of pressure ridges
Sea ice thickness
Sea ice velocity gradients
Seismic and magnetic recordings
Snow cover
Snow crystal structure
Snow density
Snow depth
Snow depth on ice
Snow extent
Snow temperature
Snow water equivalent
Snowstorms
Soil freeze-up and breakup times
Solar and terrestrial radiation levels
Surface temperature
Surface wave spectra
Temperature
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Wind speeds
Wind direction
4.2.10 Climate Change Adaptation Information
Specific references to information parameters required for climate change adaptation
operations are identified in Table 23.
Table 23: Information Parameter Requirements for Climate Change Adaptation Operations
Parameter Reference
Above-ground forest biomass
Aerosol
Aerosol extinction profiles
Aerosol layer height
Aerosol optical depth
Aerosol single scattering albedo
Air pressure
Air temperature
Albedo
Seasonally-frozen ground
Black-sky and white-sky albedo
Burnt area
Carbon
Carbon dioxide partial pressure
Carbon dioxide, methane and other GHGs
Cloud amount
Cloud effective particle radius
Cloud optical depth
Cloud properties
Cloud top pressure and temperature
Cloud water path
Current
Digital elevation models
Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance
Earth radiation budget (top-of-atmosphere and surface)
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report
Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Data Products for Climate – 2011 Update
The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar
Perspectives for a European Satellite-based Snow Monitoring Strategy: A Community White Paper
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First year ice
Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR)
Glacier and ice cap outlines
Ground water
Ice sheet elevation changes
Ice sheet mass change
Ice sheet velocity
Lake levels
Lake areas
Land cover type
Land surface temperature
Leaf area index (LAI)
Liquid and solid precipitation
Methane
Multi-year ice
NO2, SO2, HCHO and CO
Nutrients
Ocean colour
Ocean tracers
Oceanic chlorophyll-a concentration
Other long-lived greenhouse gases
Ozone
Ozone profiles from upper troposphere to mesosphere
Permafrost
Phytoplankton
Precipitation
Radiative power
Reflectance anisotropy (BRDF)
River discharge
Sea ice concentration
Sea ice cover
Sea ice drift
Sea ice edge
Sea ice extent
Sea ice thickness
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Sea level
Sea level rise
Sea state
Sea surface salinity
Sea surface temperature
Sea level global mean and regional variability
Snow areal extent
Snow cover
Snow water equivalent
Soil moisture
Surface radiation budget
Surface wind speed and direction
Temperature of deep atmospheric layers
Total and spectrally-resolved solar irradiance
Total column ozone
Total column water vapour
Tropospheric and lower-stratospheric profiles of water vapour
Tropospheric ozone
Upper tropospheric humidity
Upper air temperature
Upper air temperature (including MSU radiances)
Upper-air wind speed and direction
Water use
Water vapour
Wave direction
Wave height
Wave time period
Wave wavelength
Wind speed and direction
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4.3 USER REQUIREMENTS SPANNING MULTIPLE DOMAINS
The literature review also identified many references to environmental information needs in
the polar regions that span across scientific and operational domains. The sources of these
information needs were:
Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) Observational Requirements website
Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review Tool (OSCAR) website
Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs
Mission Concepts for a Polar Observation System Final Report
ART Priority Sheets for Future Directions of Arctic Sciences: Arctic Biodiversity Priority
Sheet; Land-Ocean Interactions Priority Sheet; Arctic Oceanography Priority Sheet; Proxy
Calibration and Evaluation Priority Sheet; Physical Processes in Arctic Sea Ice Priority
Sheet; and Paloeoceanographic Time Series from Arctic Sediments Priority Sheet
GEO 2012-2015 Work Plan – Annual Update 27 November 2014
Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar
Coordinated SAR Acquisition Planning for Terrestrial Snow Monitoring
INTERACT Research and Monitoring
ESA DUE Permafrost Requirements Baseline Document and Final Report v2
SAR Science Requirements for Ice Sheets
Earth Observation and Cryosphere Science: The Way Forward
Sentinel Convoy Analysis Reports: Ocean and Ice Observation Capabilities, Gaps and
Opportunities; EO Atmosphere Capabilities, Gaps and Opportunities; and Sentinel
Convoy for Land Processes Task 1: Critical Review and Gap Analysis
The Contribution of Space Technologies to Arctic Policy Priorities
WMO 2012 Survey on the Use of Satellite Data
Preliminary scientific needs for Cryosphere Sentinel 1-2-3 products
Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Data Products for Climate –
2011 Update
Ice Information Services: Socio-Economic Benefits and Earth Observation Requirements
2007 Update
Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the
Cryosphere
IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report
Outline of a Technical Solution to a Global Cryospheric Climate Monitoring System
Specific references to information needs in each of these sources can be found in Appendix
3. A brief summary of the key parameter requirements in the major information categories
follows.
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4.3.1 Sea Ice
Exhibiting the most widespread use across scientific and operational communities, sea ice
parameters were identified in approximately 70 percent of the reference documents, with
the top five parameters in order of the number of references being: sea ice thickness, sea ice
motion / drift, sea ice concentration, sea ice extent and sea ice pressure / ridges /
deformation.
4.3.2 River and Lake Ice
Some 55 percent of the reference documents mentioned the need for river and lake ice
parameters, with the most important being: river / lake ice extent, river / lake ice thickness,
river / lake ice concentration, river / lake ice freeze-up and break-up dates and snow depth
on river/lake ice.
4.3.3 Snow
Some 55 percent of the reference documents mentioned the need for snow parameters,
with the most important being: snow cover area / extent, snow water equivalent, snow
thickness / depth, snow and ice albedo and snowpack condition / structure / stratigraphy.
4.3.4 Atmosphere
Atmospheric parameters were identified in approximately 55 percent of the reference
documents, with the top five parameters being: chemistry / greenhouse gases, surface air
temperature, precipitation amount, surface wind direction and speed and precipitation rate.
4.3.5 Ice Sheet
Ice sheet parameters were identified in approximately 40 percent of the reference
documents, with the top five parameters being: Ice sheet extent / margin, ice sheet basal
melt magnitude, ice sheet mass change, ice sheet flow velocity and ice sheet snow
accumulation.
4.3.6 Permafrost
Permafrost parameters were identified in approximately 40 percent of the reference
documents, with the top five parameters being: permafrost extent / distribution, onset of
seasonal permafrost freezing, permafrost active layer freezing depth, seasonal frost heave /
thaw subsidence and permafrost thickness.
4.3.7 Land
Some 40 percent of the reference documents mentioned the need for land parameters, with
the most important being: land use / cover and change, land surface temperature, soil
moisture, above-ground biomass and biome / ecosystem identification and change.
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4.3.8 Glaciers and Ice Caps
Glacier and ice cap parameters were identified in approximately 35 percent of the reference
documents, with the top five parameters being: glacier / ice cap location and area, glacier
mass balance, glacier topography, glacier ice thickness and glacier velocity / flow rate.
4.3.9 Oceans
Some 35 percent of the reference documents mentioned the need for ocean parameters,
with the most important being: marine ecosystem functioning, sea surface temperature, sea
surface salinity, sea level and freshwater inputs / loads.
4.3.10 Icebergs
Of interest to a smaller group of users, primarily for operational purposes, iceberg
parameters were identified in some 23 percent of the reference documents, with the most
important being: iceberg size / dimensions, iceberg detection / location, iceberg draft,
iceberg motion / velocity and iceberg mass.
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5 REQUIREMENTS ANALYSIS
This chapter presents the results of the analysis of information collected on user
requirements for environmental information parameters through the literature review and
stakeholder consultations. Section 5.1 deals with current information needs, categorized by
parameter theme, and the current capability to meet these needs. Section 5.2 and 5.3
summarize current deficiencies in information products and services and future information
needs, respectively, identified in the consultations with users. Section 5.4 identifies how user
needs for environmental information will evolve as a result of political/policy, economic,
social/cultural and technological trends impacting the polar regions. Appendix 4 provides the
analysis details to support the conclusions presented in Section 5.3.
5.1 CURRENT INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS
The current information requirements revealed by our literature review cover a broad
spectrum of environmental parameters. While many of them appear to be in relatively short
demand since they are required for research in very specialized areas, a significant number
are of common interest to many users in both the science/research and operations
communities. To illustrate the range of requirements and the evident importance of specific
information parameters, Figures 4 to 13 illustrate the frequency with which the parameters
in the major categories of environmental information were referenced in the literature that
we reviewed. A brief analysis of the current capability to meet these information needs,
based on the stakeholder consultations and other information sources, including the World
Meteorological Organization’s Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review (OSCAR)
tool (WMO, 2014) and the Global Cryosphere Watch’s Observational Requirements tool
(GCW, 2015), follows each illustration.
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Figure 4: Relative Importance of Atmosphere Parameters
The needs of the atmospheric, climate and weather research and operational communities
for environmental information are generally being met, with a few notable exceptions. For
example, AMAP has identified requirements for improved observations of black carbon and
tropospheric ozone (AMAP, 2015a), methane (AMAP, 2015b) and contaminants (Hung & al,
2010) (Muir & de Wit, 2010). While limited information is available on current capabilities to
address the broad range of atmospheric chemistry parameters, no evidence of major
shortcomings has been identified. New capabilities to address atmospheric measurements
relating to air quality, climate forcing, ozone and UV radiation (e.g. O3, NO2, SO2, HCHO, CH4
atmospheric gases) are expected to be provided by the Sentinel-5P mission between 2017
and 2022. Precipitation parameters are provided currently by sensors such as MODIS, SSM/I,
AMSU and HIRS/3 and will be available from the Sentinel-3 mission in 2016/17. For
precipitation parameter requirements, spatial resolution and timeliness of data accessibility
requirements are being met but temporal resolution requirements (i.e. repeat cycles for
satellite observations) do not meet expectations. Improvements are required in the
temporal resolution for some precipitation, cloud and humidity parameters. A parameter
worthy of note is the spatial resolution goal for ‘horizontal wind speed over the surface’ for
high resolution NWP (0.5 km), which is considerably below the current capability (5 km). No
evidence was found of shortcomings in meeting the requirements for radiation parameters.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Lightning
Pressure
Humidity
Radiation
Temperature
Wind
Chemistry
Cloud
Air Quality
Precipitation
Atmosphere
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Figure 5: Relative Importance of Land Parameters
Requirements for most of the categories of land parameters illustrated in Figure 5 are being
met, with current measurement capabilities for spatial and temporal resolution being well
within minimum necessary requirements. Exceptions are biota (i.e. fauna) for which there is
inadequate spatial and temporal resolution information, and vegetation/land cover, for
which there is lack of consistency in products that will allow phenology studies over long
timescales.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Fauna
Ground Motion
Geology
Topography
Water Quality
Change Detection
Albedo
Fire
Soil Moisture
Biomass
Hydrology
Land Use
Ground Temperature
Vegetation
Land
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Bathymetry
Wind
Waves
Chemistry
Water Quality
Freshwater Input
Circulation
Salinity
Temperature
Sea Level
Ecosystems
Ocean
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Figure 6: Relative Importance of Ocean Parameters
Requirements for most categories of ocean parameters are being met, with current
measurement capabilities for spatial and temporal resolution being significantly under
minimum necessary requirements. AMAP has identified requirements for improved
observations of contaminants (Muir & de Wit, 2010). There are no major differences
between current and goal requirements with the exceptions of the temporal resolution
requirements for the parameters ‘ocean currents’ and ‘sea surface salinity’ for ocean
forecasting research (24 days vs. 6 days). Sentinel-1 is contributing to improved wave
information and the Sentinel-3 mission is expected to provide new information for sea
surface temperature, sea level, surface topography, marine sediments and ocean colour.
Notable exceptions are biota (i.e. ecosystems), for which information is not available on
sustained and regular timescales, temperature, for which the quality of near ice edge and
marginal ice zone information is inadequate, and waves, for which there is inadequate wave
height/period information with penetration into ice cover.
Figure 7: Relative Importance of Sea Ice Parameters
Users’ requirements for several sea ice parameters are not being fully met currently. The
shortcomings are:
Extent – inadequate spatial and temporal resolution for operations; inadequate
discrimination between first year and multi-year ice; integration with ice concentration
information required
Motion – inadequate spatial and temporal resolution for operations, which need near
real-time service delivery
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Albedo
Volume
Type
Contents
Snow Cover
Deformation
Melting
Motion
Concentration
Extent
Thickness
Structure
Sea Ice
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Snow Depth – inadequate spatial and temporal resolution for operations; insufficient
quality with current sensor and algorithm combinations; integration with ice thickness
information required
Structure/Age – inadequate spatial and temporal resolution for operations; lack of
nested products to satisfy large to small scale applications
Thickness – inadequate spatial and temporal resolution for operations
Topography – inadequate spatial resolution for operations
The existence of snow on top of sea ice creates problems in reliable measurement of ice
thickness, concentration and extent from space. While meteorological modelling of snow
thickness using EO from space can produce an approximation of ice thickness, this is not
reliable enough for navigation use, where snow on top of the ice increases the difficulty of
passage through ice-covered waters. The Sentinel-3 mission is expected to provide enhanced
capabilities for production of ice concentration and ice freeboard information, but lack
coverage of central parts of the Arctic Ocean (beyond 82 N) due to orbit limitations.
Figure 8: Relative Importance of Lake / River Ice Parameters
There are a number of areas where the current capabilities for development of lake / river
(or freshwater) ice information parameters fall short of the suggested minimum
requirements. For example, the required spatial resolution compared with available
resolution for the following parameters is: ‘ice extent’ (100 m vs. 250 m); ‘floating /
grounded ice extent’ (5 m vs. 10 m); and ‘flood extent’ (5 m vs. 10 m). In addition,
shortcomings in spatial resolution for thickness and temporal resolution for ice extent,
structure and thickness were identified.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Mass
Flooding
Damming
Motion
Structure
Snow Cover
Duration
Concentration
Thickness
Extent
River & Lake Ice
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Figure 9: Relative Importance of Snow Parameters
Requirements for a number of snow parameters are not being fully met with current
capabilities. Shortcomings include:
Depth – inadequate spatial resolution; insufficient quality with current sensor and
algorithm combinations
Extent – inadequate spatial resolution
Freeze/Thaw – time series product that allows identification of ice layers within snow
required
Snow Water Equivalent – inadequate spatial resolution; insufficient use of integrated
satellite and in-situ observations and inadequate models
Sentinel-3 is expected to contribute to improved information for snow depth and density
parameters.
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Mass
Duration
Content
Structure
Melting
Albedo
Thickness
Snow Water Equivalent
Extent
Snow
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Figure 10: Relative Importance of Ice Sheet Parameters
The minimum spatial and temporal resolution requirements for most ice sheet parameters
are partially being met. Outlet glaciers and marginal regions, which show the largest
changes, are not being measured sufficiently accurate by radar altimetry missions, including
the upcoming Sentinel-3 mission, where central parts of Antarctica is not covered either. The
use of repeat orbits for ocean altimetry, further limits the use of such missions over ice caps
due to unmeasured gas. Other parameters where minimum requirements are not fulfilled
include ‘snow depth’ (snow/firm/ice distribution; insufficient quality with current sensor and
algorithm combinations), and ‘iceberg calving’, ‘mass change’ and ‘ice thickness’ (inadequate
spatial and temporal resolution).
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Iceberg Calving
Albedo
Structure
Motion
Snow Cover
Volume
Extent
Thickness
Melting
Ice Sheets
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Figure 11: Relative Importance of Glacier / Ice Cap Parameters
Requirements for a number of glacier / ice cap parameters are not being fully addressed with
current capabilities. These include the parameters: ‘topography’, for which the minimum
spatial resolution requirement of 30 m is below the currently available resolution of 100s of
m, and the temporal resolution is also inadequate (1 year vs. 5 years); the inadequate
temporal resolution of ‘velocity’ (1 month vs. 1 year); and the inadequate spatial resolution
(15 m vs. 50 m) and temporal resolution (5 days vs. 1 month) of ‘dammed lakes’. Inadequate
spatial and temporal resolutions were also identified by users for ‘iceberg calving’, ‘mass
change’, and ‘thickness’. Similar to ice sheets, current ‘snow depth’ information suffers from
insufficient quality with current sensor and algorithm combinations.
Figure 12: Relative Importance of Iceberg Parameters
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Albedo
Iceberg Calving
Dammed Lakes
Melting
Motion
Snow Cover
Structure
Volume
Thickness
Extent
Glaciers
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Origin
Extent
Motion
Concentration
Position
Size
Icebergs
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The minimum spatial and temporal resolution requirements of science users for all iceberg
parameters are being partially met. For the parameter ‘draft’, the minimum spatial
resolution requirement of 1 m is below the currently available resolution of 10 m, and for
‘size’, the minimum temporal resolution requirement of 2 hours is below the currently
available resolution of 1 day. These statements relate to icebergs in the open ocean, with
optical missions; all parameters for icebergs in sea ice still represent a major challenge.
Operational users need higher resolution data on a near real-time basis to identify the size of
icebergs and detect the presence of growlers and bergy bits that pose risks to navigation.
Figure 13: Relative Importance of Permafrost Parameters
The needs of users of permafrost information are generally being met with current
capabilities, although no space-based methods exist for measurement of permafrost
thickness. The current spatial resolution capabilities for several parameters fall below the
minimum requirements: ‘distribution’ (or extent), for which the minimum requirement of 1
km is below the currently available resolution of 10 km; ‘surface temperature’ (100 m vs. 1
km); and ‘seasonal freezing distribution’ (10 km vs. 25 km). Also of note is the goal spatial
resolution of 1 km for ‘seasonal freezing distribution’, well below the current capability of 25
km.
5.2 DEFICIENCIES IN AVAILABLE INFORMATION PRODUCTS AND SERVICES
In addition to the specific shortcomings discussed in Section 5.1, the stakeholder
consultations provided valuable feedback on the current deficiencies in access and delivery,
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Structure
Water Volume
Erosion
Duration
Temperature
Motion
Extent
Thickness
Permafrost
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satellite tasking and standards and identified several information parameters/variables or
products that are not yet available. The Gaps and Impacts Report provides detailed analysis
of gaps in information products and services.
The ability to find, assess and access available products and services is of concern to many
respondents, with several specific impediments mentioned. Cost is a concern, especially on
orders made for data acquisition with short lead times and for some commercial data
products (e.g. RADARSAT). Obtaining access to data was mentioned by several respondents
(e.g. VIIRS data being more difficult to access than LANDSAT and MODIS data, EU/ESA data
being more difficult to access than US data (although initiatives like Copernicus MyOcean are
moving in the right direction) and until recently restrictions on rapid access to SENTINEL-1 by
scientific institutes outside of the EU). Users expressed interest in better dissemination of
information about available products and services and more powerful platforms to order,
download and retrieve data based on a specific geographic area. More user-friendly
platforms are of interest to users with limited technical capabilities. Finally, bandwidth
constraints continue to be a major impediment for ship’s officers at sea to access high
quality ice information products for navigation in the polar regions and for northern
communities for travel near the sea ice edge.
Several respondents noted problems with availability of data from different satellite and in
situ sensors. For example, lack of Sentinel data in some specific geographic areas for
timeframes of interest (e.g., western part of Antarctic region, forested areas of Finland,
Baltic Sea) has been identified as a deficiency. Concerns were raised about the inadequate
frequency of data acquisition over the polar regions and the latency (i.e. turnaround time)
between data acquisition and the availability of processed data. Understandably, this is of
greatest concern to organizations that require products and services for near real-time
applications such as navigation and high resolution numerical weather prediction. The
sparseness of in-situ sensor networks is also of growing concern, reducing the opportunities
for their use in geospatial ground-truthing and rectification of space-based EO data and
model calibration.
The challenges with tasking satellites for simultaneous or near-simultaneous data collection
for production of integrated products and services were highlighted by several respondents.
This requirement relates to simultaneous collection of data with different satellite sensors
(e.g. SAR and altimeter data) as well as collection of satellite and in situ data in the same
timeframe. The difficulties in tasking satellites to target specific geographic areas with
limited advance notice were also identified as a deficiency.
The need for improvement of standards was referenced by several respondents, both from a
standardization of data and a data veracity perspective. The formats available for the
products should be such that the products can be easily ingested together with other
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products (i.e. georeferenced). Lack of standardization of products provided by the ice
services was also mentioned. The Arctic SDI initiative is viewed as a possible means of
addressing the data standards deficiency. Concerning data veracity, shortcomings in the
validation of some public domain EO data (e.g. ice freeboard, surface currents) and the need
for provision of error estimates for sea ice products were mentioned, as was improving the
robustness of information retrieval generally from remote sensing data (e. g. error
quantification, reduction of uncertainties) and providing detailed, easy-to-understand
descriptions of the applied methods and their limitations for higher-order products (e. g.
retrieval of sea ice thickness).
Finally, a number of information parameters/variables or products were identified that are
of interest to the user community but are not yet available, including:
Increased temporal resolution of the small changes in water volume during phase change
from solid to liquid in snow or sea ice (i.e. going from 0-3% water by volume), which is
very important for the evolution of the system, changing the physics of the ice
Measurement of sea ice meltwater draining into the ocean, which can be measured with
in situ instruments but there is room for increased detection using other technologies
such as UAVs, AUVs, LiDAR, etc.
Satellite programs that have as their basis a more multidisciplinary approach to how
coupling processes between the marine and terrestrial environment work
Measurement of the overall salinity and delivery of freshwater from the terrestrial to the
marine environment
Detection of large masses of discarded fish of low or no commercial value by fishing
vessels (prohibited by the EU Landing Obligation)
5.3 FUTURE INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS
Respondents provided a range of perspectives on how their information requirements are
expected to change in the future. In most instances it was difficult for them to differentiate
their expected requirements between the short, medium and long terms. Very few
respondents reported that their needs for information will remain unchanged in the future.
Increased demand for environmental information in the polar regions is expected to arise
from multiple sources. Growth in traffic by government vessels for ice breaking, fisheries
surveillance and search and rescue operations will grow as shipping and tourism traffic
increases and the operational season extends to eight months and beyond. The commercial
fisheries are migrating further north and south, with extended seasons in ice-infested
waters. As traffic continues to grow, there are also expectations that responses to
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emergency situations (e.g. grounded vessels, oil and chemical spills) will also increase in
frequency.
A requirement that generally applies to most user communities is for data at a higher spatial
resolution and based on sensor collection at an increased frequency (i.e. higher temporal
resolution). For example, coastal zone research stakeholders have an increasing need for
near-shore information at a much higher resolution, including SAR imagery, for examining
ocean acidification, forecasted algae blooms, etc. on a more precise level. Another example
is fisheries management, where a two-tiered approach to accessing information (e.g. using
coarser resolution products to focus the acquisition of higher resolution data over a specific
geographical area) will be employed in the Southern Ocean.
Near real-time applications requiring higher frequencies of satellite imaging for production
of ice and iceberg dynamics products and services are expected to increase (e.g. support of
higher levels of shipping traffic, direction of fishing vessels to safe waters in the polar
regions, fisheries resource management and real-time monitoring of illegal fishing activity
and navigating cruise vessels through ice-infested waters). In addition, since fishing vessels
will remain in waters that will freeze or become ice-infested as long as they can, high quality
near real-time information will be increasingly important so that they can extend the fishing
season as long as possible. Since satellite collection of ocean colour data is limited by cloud
cover, a higher imaging frequency than once daily is required to increase the possibility of
cloud-free imagery, so 10 or 20 times per day is desirable in the short-term. There is an
increasing requirement in risk monitoring (e.g. oil spills, air pollution, wildlife) during arctic
operations for higher temporal frequency of data collection, either by satellite or in-situ.
Demands for future reductions in the latency period for access to near real-time products
(i.e. period of time between data acquisition and availability of products) are also common.
The demands for simultaneous collection of different types of data and for integration of
data are expected to grow. In addition to the interest in integrating data collected by
satellite, airborne and in situ sensors, crowd-sourced data provided by citizens will
increasingly be available for potential use in the future. Using better coupled systems (e.g.
satellites running in tandem, such as a limb sounder looking at the boundary layer in the
atmosphere at the same time as obtaining SAR and thermal IR images of the surface), or
simultaneous collection of multi-frequency data (e.g. X, C, L Ku and S band) is expected to
increase in importance. Answers to some of the most complex scientific questions in the
polar regions require data integration, including integration of surface and satellite
observations. In addition, since indigenous peoples in the Arctic will be required to adapt to
climate change to a greater extent than their southern neighbours, integration of traditional
knowledge with the information being produced by scientists will be essential to make
adaptive management practices work effectively.
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Several references were made by respondents to the changes in information requirements
that will be imposed by the Polar Code, which will come into effect in 2017. Vessel officers
need to comply by 2018 and obtain Polar Certificates to show that their vessels can be
operated under certain ice conditions and temperature. Therefore, high resolution imagery
(tens of meters, swath 100 km) and ice cover information, such as density, age and thickness
that can be delivered to the master on the ship bridge will be in higher demand.
Specific new or improved data variables or processes that were identified for future use
included:
More reliable sea ice thickness information
More reliable high resolution sea ice concentration information
High-resolution monitoring of rapidly changing outlet glaciers and ice sheet margins
A pan-Arctic dataset of in situ snow measurements
Improved methods for estimating snow water equivalent and snow depth and a Pan-
European service for snow water equivalent and snow cover fraction
Improved methods for estimating ice thickness from space, augmented by denser in situ
measurements of ice thickness
Greater demand for higher resolution products for route planning and for navigation on
ship bridges (e.g. locations of icebergs in pack ice, ice concentration, ice type, ice
thickness)
Reduction of uncertainties in modeling cryospheric processes (e.g. permafrost models
under-represent ice content and the insulating effect of the organic layer; climate models
do not resolve the steep topography of the Greenland Ice Sheet margins; models of
snow-vegetation interactions need to be improved; and models that link meteorology to
glacier mass balance need to incorporate downscaling techniques and satellite data)
Information scaling, bridging the gap between discrete in-situ point measurements at the
local level and large area coverage satellite data to a middle ground where catchment
area sized datasets are needed, scaled up from the local level and scaled down from the
broad satellite coverage.
Increased demand for cross-polarisation radar and multispectral images
Integration of sea surface temperature and salinity data with ocean colour data
Collaborative efforts between the public and private sector to collect in situ oceanographic
data are expected to increase. For example, the Commission for the Conservation of
Antarctic Marine Living Resources is exploring a partnership with the Coalition of Legal
Toothfish Operators (COLTO) WG for Science Collaboration to have relatively inexpensive
oceanographic sensors added to the fishing gear of COLTO members. Another example is the
work of the Alaska Ocean Observing System group with ferries and fishing companies to
collect ocean bottom temperatures, etc. and with Marine Exchange of Alaska to have vessels
in Alaskan waters return sea ice conditions as part of their AIS signal package.
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Concerns about the veracity of data products will place an increasing focus on improving the
robustness of information retrieval from remote sensing data (e. g. error quantification,
reduction of uncertainties) so researchers have improved knowledge of the information
reliability and its limitations for achieving their specific research goals, which will heighten
the need for in-situ observations. Users are calling for detailed, easy-to-understand
descriptions of the applied methods for generation of higher-order products (e. g. retrieval
of sea ice thickness) and their limitations.
Reference was made to new types of sensors that will be required to meet future needs. For
example, a need for ocean colour sensors that are polar-orbiting, and have higher frequency
measurements like the one that was considered for the PCW project, was identified, as well
as better sensors for detecting the amount of light and other properties underneath the sea
ice and other physical sea ice properties, such as ice thickness and snow thickness. The
requirement for new hyperspectral sensors enabling more accurate land cover classifications
and change detection was also identified. C-Band and X-band radiometers with high
resolution will be required (e.g. 3-5 km with very little atmospheric interference in that
frequency range), in particular for sea ice concentration and SST applications.
Finally, the demand for value-added, integrated data services is expected to grow in the
future. Having professional services available that assess all the different data sources and
products and provide information services that integrate the best data and provide it to
users is a better option for some users than building up internal capability.
5.4 POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, SOCIAL/CULTURAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL (PEST) TRENDS
The key trends that may impact users’ future information needs were identified (see
Appendix 4 for details). This section provides an assessment of the significance of the
identified PEST trends for how user needs for environmental information will evolve.
5.4.1 Impacts of Political/Policy Trends
The impacts of political/policy trends can be divided into the following categories (Polar
View, 2012):
Sustainable economic development
Safety
Environment
Sovereignty
Indigenous and social development
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Sustainable Economic Development
Economic development lies at the heart of the policies of the majority of Arctic nations and
the EU. Generally this encompasses the exploitation of natural resources, both renewable
resources such as fisheries, forestry and marine mammals, and non-renewable ones,
particularly fossil energy resources and minerals, and other economic activities in and
dealing with the Arctic (e.g. tourism and shipping). For the main participants in these
economic development activities (i.e. oil and gas and mining companies, fisheries, shipping
and tourism operators), the combination of a warming climate and a supportive political and
policy environment represents future growth opportunities that will produce increasing
demands for environmental information. EO capabilities of particular relevance include the
mapping and characterization of snow and ice cover (land and sea ice), the assessment of
land stability within permafrost regimes and the description of land cover and land use
changes.
Closely associated with sustainable economic development is the need for supportive
infrastructure development (e.g. energy network pipelines, road systems, railways and deep
sea ports, and buildings to access, process, store, and ship resources) and community
infrastructure expansion (e.g. private and public buildings, landfills, sewer, water, and solid
waste facilities). Although EO has only limited applications in infrastructure development,
demand will grow for its use in the preliminary planning for location of assets, where high
resolution optical imagery is a useful tool for investigating location and routing alternatives,
and in the monitoring of the effects of subsidence due to permafrost melting on buildings
and pipelines.
Improvement of the North’s transport efficiency is also important for the overall
development and viability of the region. The current focus on improving the connections
within the region and with neighbouring countries addresses concerns such as (Polar View,
2012):
Improvement in safety and maintenance of road transport networks;
Modernization of existing and development of new railways;
Improvement of existing capacity in maritime ports;
Promotion of multi-modal transport; and
Safety during periods of ice break-up of river and sea ice.
Demand for EO-based information for improving the efficiency of transportation in the Arctic
will grow with the increased focus on economic development. There will be a need to
expand routine ice charting to the entire Arctic basin at a higher resolution and to produce
localized ice information products (e.g. for access to specific ports or coastal installations).
Safety
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Given the importance of increased shipping in the polar regions, there is some prominence
in policies on safety of marine transportation. The primary safety risks are from various
forms of ice and the principal safety application of EO concerns safe marine transportation
and offshore operations in the presence of sea ice and icebergs. There will be increasing
demands for critical information on sea ice and iceberg location and characteristics derived
from satellite imagery by vessels and operations in ice-infested waters for strategic and
tactical decision-making. Road transportation will also increase with expansion of resource
development in the Arctic. A warming climate is reducing the effective season for use of ice
roads and creating higher maintenance costs as permafrost areas become less stable. The
primary safety risks are related to travel over fragile ice and the potential for vehicle
submersion if the ice is too weak to support the vehicle. In the case of ice roads, EO
surveillance is required at a high resolution, with the key parameters being the completed
freeze-up and melt-onset, which define the start and end dates for operating ice roads.
Search and rescue (S&R) is often mentioned in polices affecting polar regions. S&R
effectiveness is heavily impacted in these regions because the length of time for response
may be protracted due to the severe climate, great distances involved, and the relative
shortage of personnel and equipment. The major contributions of EO within a S&R context
include (Polar View, 2012): the provision of locations of vessels or aircraft in distress if other
options are not available; the delivery of a rapid, synoptic view of the surroundings of an
emergency (e.g. ice conditions, land cover, access routes); and the derivation of
environmental parameters used to predict search zones (e.g. wind fields and sea surface
temperature, used to assess life expectancy during emergencies at sea). Increased economic
activities in the polar regions will increase the risk of distress situations occurring and
produce growing demands for EO-based products and services to support S&R efforts.
Policy documents also often reference the importance of creating effective emergency
response capabilities to mitigate the impacts of potential disasters such as contaminant spills
and severe flooding events. Flooding may occur due to ice jams in rivers, substantial rainfall
or snow melt over frozen ground, storm surges or outburst floods from glacial lakes.
Contaminant spills, largely oil, are more likely to occur as a result of increased resource
extraction and vessel traffic as receding summer ice cover makes the Arctic more accessible.
If weather conditions are conducive, optical EO can provide detailed information about the
extent of the disaster, the type of destruction that has occurred, and the areas most severely
impacted. Satellite radar data delivers valuable information during bad weather conditions
and at night and is also the primary means of observing ice over large areas as well as the
detection and monitoring of marine oil spills.
Environment
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Pollution is expected to become a much more significant problem as the Arctic region
becomes more industrialized and marine transportation through Arctic waters becomes
commonplace. Dealing with pollution is referenced in several of the Arctic nations’ policy
documents. In the Arctic, the major sources of pollution are from the following sources
(Polar View, 2012):
Air pollution – smoke and particulates from extraction of minerals, oil and gas; volcanic
eruptions; pollution from natural or manmade disasters
Water pollution – wastewater discharges from extraction of minerals and oil; oil spills
from illegal bilge pumping and accidental tanker ruptures; pollution from natural or
manmade disasters
Soil contamination – leaching from mining tailings; pollution from natural or manmade
disasters
The applications of earth observation to pollution in the polar regions are expected to grow
in importance as economic development-supportive polices are implemented. Radar EO is
particularly suitable for oil spill detection and monitoring. Multispectral EO is useful for
monitoring vegetation stress, algal blooms and variations in water sediment loads that may
result from pollution of land and water from mineral extraction, industrial activities and
increased human habitation close to water bodies. EO is also applicable to monitoring
specific sites of known impact (e.g. deposition of mine tailings), detecting changes over time
(e.g. changes in vegetation cover as a result of industrial activities), studying transboundary
pollution, and assessing compliance with regulatory requirements (e.g. discharge of
pollutants from vessels and offshore structures).
Not surprisingly, the environmental topic that is of most concern to Arctic nations, and that
is given priority in their policies for the region, is climate change and its impact on the
ecosystems and peoples of the north. For lower latitude countries, the primary impacts are
the potential changes of climate due to Arctic feedbacks, and especially, global sea level rise
due to melting of both Arctic and Antarctic glaciers.
The primary effects of ongoing changes in the climate of the Arctic include loss of sea ice,
and melting of permafrost and the Greenland ice sheet. Satellite imaging is a primary means
for monitoring and measuring the major changes on land and water that are attributed to
climate change and providing many of the oceanic and terrestrial ECVs required to support
the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental
panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since the impacts of climate change are particularly severe
and noticeable in the Arctic, EO will continue to be highly relevant in this region. However,
the climate change research community will require additional spatial resolution for radar
imagery and improved temporal resolution for optical imagery to meet its future needs.
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Biodiversity conservation is another environmental topic of significant importance in polar
region policy. Complex interactions between climate change and other factors (e.g.
pollution, habitat fragmentation, industrial development, and unsustainable harvest levels)
have the potential to magnify impacts on biodiversity. There is already evidence that climate
change is impacting Arctic species, with some populations of polar bear, reindeer/ caribou
and shorebirds in decline in the High Arctic. There are two approaches to the use of EO for
biodiversity studies (Polar View, 2012): direct remote sensing of individual organisms,
species, or ecological communities from satellites; and indirect remote sensing of
biodiversity through reliance on environmental parameters as proxies. While there have
been limited applications of these approaches in the Arctic, as climate change affects species
diversity in the region and snow and ice cover is for shorter periods, the relevance of EO for
biodiversity monitoring is expected to increase.
Finally, protection of the environment and vulnerable species is a policy priority for a
number of Arctic nations. Environmental protection is particularly critical in the Arctic
because the region is highly sensitive and its human population and culture is heavily
dependent on the health of the region’s ecosystems. Expected growth in the importance of
the primary applications of EO for environmental protection are for detection and
monitoring of environmental contaminants (e.g. oil and chemical spills, mining tailings,
industrial, commercial, and residential refuse, etc.), managing vulnerable species (e.g. polar
bears in the Arctic) and monitoring of regulatory compliance (e.g. environmental
remediation and reforestation of mining sites and illegal fishing).
Sovereignty
Border protection is an area of special interest that is reflected in a number of the Arctic
nations’ policy documents. Border protection usually includes managing access to borders by
large numbers of people and goods moving over land, by sea and by air, while maintaining
the integrity of the border and providing protection from threats to the country’s security
and prosperity. The focus of security in the Arctic is primarily on governments effectively
controlling their jurisdictions. EO satellite systems provide valuable imagery that can be of
benefit in identifying and tracking the movement of illegal goods such as drugs and nuclear
materials. The most applicable systems for border protection purposes are the high
resolution optical imaging systems, which are required to ensure positive identification of
illegal activities. As economic activity in the polar regions intensifies, the importance of
border protection is expected to increase and the significant challenges for use of EO in
identification and tracking applications in border protection (e.g. the differing repeat
coverage cycles of the various systems, trade-offs between spatial resolution and areal
coverage) will need to be addressed.
Indigenous and Social Development
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The values, beliefs and social development of the indigenous population have always been a
primary concern to the majority of the Arctic states, which have policies in place that focus
on maintaining traditional livelihoods, protecting cultural heritage and ensuring healthy and
safe northern communities. Recognition through international law of indigenous rights has
provided the foundation for Arctic indigenous groups to lobby for greater political autonomy
and economic recognition, while at the same time allowing them to protect their traditional
livelihoods (including fishing, hunting and reindeer herding). EO is used to produce maps and
other real-time information products that allow hunters and fishers to safely navigate
around dangerous areas, including ice ridges, moving ice or stretches of open water. EO can
also be used in land management and monitoring of Indigenous territories (e.g. Inuit-owned
lands managed by regional land claim organizations in Canada) (Nunavut Tunngavik
Incorporated (NTI), n.d.). The information will become even more vital in the future for
augmenting traditional knowledge that previously guided travel routes, which is less reliable
under a changing climate.
5.4.2 Impacts of Economic Trends
As referenced in the previous section, sustainable economic development goals are a
primary driver of the increased interest in the polar regions. The impacts of economic trends
on user needs for environmental information can be divided into the following major sectors
of growth in the regions:
Resource development
Tourism
Fisheries
Transportation and shipping
Resource Development
Non-renewable resource development is viewed as a primary source of economic
development in the Arctic, whereas the Protocol on Environmental Protection to the
Antarctic Treaty (The Madrid Protocol) prohibits mining in the Antarctic. In recent years, the
mining industry has enjoyed historically high prices for iron, copper, gold, coal, rare earths,
uranium and other metals and minerals that are available in the Arctic. While prices for
many mineral resources are now dropping and the mining industry will continue to face
cyclical demand for its products, the expected trend is towards longer term strong market
growth. The recent dramatic reduction in oil prices has obviously had a significant impact on
that industry’s interest in offshore oil production in the Arctic. For example, although Royal
Dutch Shell proceeded in August 2015 with its plans to drill in the Chukchi Sea off Alaska
(Bradner, 2015), it announced in late September 2015 that it is abandoning its Arctic search
for oil (Schaps, 2015). Similar to the mining industry, the prevailing view in the oil and gas
industry is for a longer term return to a price level that will make Arctic offshore production
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economically viable. The Government of Greenland, for example, actively encourages new
exploration areas such as the potentially highly rewarding, but also near-permanently ice
covered and ecologically sensitive NE Greenland shelf region, the assumed northern
extension of the North Sea/Norwegian graben structures.
While the markets for non-renewable resources may be depressed in the short term,
medium and long-term growth will spur increased demand for EO-based products and
services. As suggested previously in the section on Sustainable Economic Development, both
radar and optical imagery at higher resolutions and related ice, snow and permafrost
information products will be required to support planning and execution of resource
extraction programs, development of related infrastructure and shipping of mineral and
petroleum products from the Arctic to market.
Transportation and Shipping
As discussed in Section 4.4.2 on Economic Trends, marine vessel traffic for transportation of
people and shipment of goods to and through the polar regions is expected to continue to
grow in step with economic development. Rising concerns about environmental damage
resulting from this growth has placed a greater emphasis on safety (e.g. work of the
Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) Working Group under the Arctic
Council, and the new International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (or ‘Polar
Code’)). This focus will increase the future importance of environmental information to
support safe navigation, such as sea ice and iceberg information products and services. As
suggested previously in the section on Safety, there will be a similar growth in demand for
information to support safe land transportation over permafrost areas and ice roads over
frozen lakes and rivers as climate changes makes the safety of these routes less predictable.
Tourism
Adventure tourism is a growth industry worldwide and trips by air and cruise ship to the
Arctic and Antarctic are expected to increase in number and cover longer periods of the year
as climate warming makes the polar regions more accessible. The impacts on the demand for
environmental information in the future are similar to the impacts in the transportation and
shipping industry. Growing concern about the impacts of large numbers of visitors on fragile
landscapes in both polar regions will also escalate demand for environmental information to
help monitor land cover and ecosystem damage. Concerns are also growing about the
increased number of cruise ships, and the safety concerns related to insufficient bathymetric
mapping and deficient S&R capability.
Fisheries
There are active and growing fisheries in both the polar regions. The information needs for
planning and executing fishing operations are similar to those for transportation and
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shipping. As commercial fisheries extend further into the Arctic with increased melting of the
sea ice, fishing vessels will require daily updates of ice extent, concentration and strength in
order to move quickly and safely in ice-infested waters to areas that will maximize their
catch. Fisheries management organizations like CCAMLR will require high quality, near-real
time sea ice information in order to direct fishermen to the safest areas on a day-to-day
basis. High resolution information will also be required to detect and take enforcement
action against vessels engaged in illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing activities. The
five Arctic coastal nations (Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark, the Kingdom of Norway, the
Russian Federation and the United States of America) are discussing the implementation of
interim measures to prevent unregulated fishing in the high seas portion of the central Arctic
Ocean (NOAA, 2015).
5.4.3 Impacts of Technological Trends
The technologies of most relevance in the polar regions are telecommunications, personal
computing, global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) automatic identification systems (AIS)
and long-range unmanned systems (UAS).
Telecommunications
As identified in Appendix 4, there are a number of scheduled and planned
telecommunication satellite systems that are intended to help address the current low
bandwidth constraints in the Arctic and Antarctic. Success in the launch and deployment of
these missions will provide new (and perhaps expensive) means of transmitting
environmental information to scientific and operational users in the regions. Undersea fibre
optic is also being explored by at least one company, providing another potential option for
transmitting high volume environmental information to users. The removal of the bandwidth
constraint will facilitate the development and growth of commercial, integrated polar data
services and open up new markets for EO data use in the polar regions.
Personal Computing
As the telecommunications infrastructure in the Arctic improves and EO-based services
mature, citizens and businesses in Northern communities will be empowered to make better
plans and operational decisions with the deployment of personal computing devices.
Relatively low cost personal computing will enable more widespread use of information
services and increase opportunities for citizens to consume data in their daily lives.
GNSS
The limitations of positioning and navigation with GNSS in the polar regions, primarily due to
MEO orbits and increased ionospheric activity causing signal disruption, represent a problem
for precise positioning, particularly in the vertical plane. Satellite-based augmentation is also
limited by too few reference stations being available in the systems’ ground segment in the
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Arctic. Although there have been proposals to address these shortcomings (e.g. use of the
existing Iridium network for broadcasting SBAS messages in the Arctic), the future ability to
meet the demands for integrity and consistency in applications requiring high precision like
dynamic positioning appears uncertain.
AIS
With the promise of persistent global coverage with revisit times less than one minute by
2017, space-based AIS (S-AIS) will provide near real-time locations of AIS-equipped vessels in
the polar regions. Primary applications of surveillance for regulatory enforcement and safety
of vessel navigation will benefit from this increased level of service. Fisheries enforcement
agencies are already using S-AIS feeds and satellite imagery to detect IUU fishing activities,
and integrated information services will be of growing interest to these organizations, as well
as environmental agencies that are monitoring illegal discharges of contaminants by vessels
into the ocean. How` `ever, vessels involved in illegal activities often turn off their AIS to
avoid detection.
UAS
Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) (i.e. remotely piloted aircraft) potentially can increase
sovereignty monitoring and border and fisheries control in remote areas, especially in
tandem with satellite surveys, where UAS can provide the necessary high-resolution data for
positive identification. Dual-use of UAS could also provide high-resolution sea ice data for
augmenting satellite missions. Several countries are currently investigating UAS options for
year-round surveillance, including the Danish Defense for surveillance of Greenland waters.
5.4.4 Impacts of Social/Cultural Trends
The primary social/cultural trends of relevance from an environmental information
perspective are the changes that have been imposed on indigenous people in the Arctic by
global warming. The acquisition and consumption of country food remains important to
many indigenous peoples of the north. This is being impacted by a number of factors (e.g.
changing ice conditions that make hunting and fishing more unpredictable and dangerous,
damaged ecosystems that are increasing the mortality rates of species they depend upon for
food, and the increasing incidence of invasive species and vector-borne diseases that are
compromising the quality of meat and fish available). To help mitigate the impacts of climate
change on traditional livelihoods, provision of easily accessible and usable ice information
(especially ice edge information products) will be increasingly important as sea ice becomes
more unstable.
A number of coastal Arctic communities are also becoming more vulnerable to the impacts
of sea level rise and more frequent severe storm events. EO information is required for
monitoring coastal zone changes and to help identify options for adaptation or even
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community relocation in the most extreme cases. Resource extraction, and in particular
mining, also has significant cultural implications since mine development caribou/reindeer
grazing areas and migration routes, which impacts northern livelihoods. Examples are
emerging of how geographic information systems and EO-based information are being
employed to communicate impacts and improve decision-making (Herrmann & al, 2014).
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APPENDIX 1: REFERENCES TO SCIENCE DRIVERS
The following sections identify where specific references to the drivers of science and
research activities in the polar regions were identified in the literature review.
ATMOSPHERE, CLIMATE AND WEATHER CHANGES
The Antarctic and Southern Ocean Science Horizon Scan undertaken by the Scientific
Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) identified as one of six priorities defining the global
reach of the Antarctic atmosphere and Southern Ocean, and the question, “How do
interactions between the atmosphere, ocean and ice control the rate of climate change?”
and “What additional ice, rock and sediment records are needed to know whether past
climate states are fated to be repeated?” as key research questions to be addressed
(Kennicutt, Chown, & al, 2014).
The Earth Observation Science Strategy updated in 2015 by the European Space Agency
(ESA) identified as a challenge, “Interactions between the atmosphere and Earth’s surface
involving natural and anthropogenic feedback processes for water, energy and atmospheric
composition” (ESA, 2015).
The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Science
Plan and Experimental Design identified as one of the scientific questions around which its
specific observational and modeling activities are organized, “How do ongoing changes in the
Arctic ice-ocean-atmosphere system impact large-scale heat and mass transfers of
importance to climate and ecosystems?” and one climate-related scientific question around
which specific observational and modeling activities of MOSAiC are organized is, “How do
ongoing changes in the Arctic ice-ocean-atmosphere system impact large-scale heat and
mass transfers of importance to climate and ecosystems?” (MOSAiC Coordination Team,
2014).
A recent planning workshop for an international research program on the Coupled North
Atlantic-Arctic System, jointly convened by the National Science Foundation Division of
Ocean Sciences and the European Union (EU), identified as one of the key climate processes
and socio-economic-policy concerns, “…how will a changing Arctic cryosphere influence
ocean-atmosphere-ice interactions, thereby influencing biogeochemical processes and
ecosystem structure?” (Hofmann, St. John, & Benway, 2015).
Other indications of interest in atmosphere changes that are driving the need for
environmental information in the Polar Regions include:
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The challenges “Impacts of transient solar events on Earth’s atmosphere” and “the
representation of the terrestrial cryosphere in land surface, atmosphere and climate
models” identified in the SCAR horizon scan (Kennicutt, Chown, & al, 2014).
The strategic foci being placed on “physical and biological forcing of atmospheric
chemistry in polar atmosphere” by the Polar Space Task Group (PSTG) (WMO, 2011-1).
The identification of “improve representation of key processes in models of the polar
atmosphere, land, ocean and cryosphere” as one of eight key research goals by the
World Weather Research Programme Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP) in its
Implementation Plan (WMO, 2013).
In Arctic in Rapid Transition (ART) Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) a question related to
priorities for Arctic marine science over the next decade is, “How does the transition to
warmer climate affect the lateral and vertical distribution of water masses in the Arctic
Ocean and what is the potential impact on the ecosystems of the continental shelves?”
The Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA report (ESA, 2015)
identifies the following challenges concerning improved understanding and quantification of
information related to climate and weather include, “Changes in atmospheric composition
and air quality, including interactions with climate.” “Interactions between changes in large-
scale atmospheric circulation and regional weather and climate.” “Regional and seasonal
distribution of sea-ice mass and the coupling between sea ice, climate, marine ecosystems
and biogeochemical cycling in the ocean.” “Mass balance of grounded ice sheets, ice caps
and glaciers, their relative contributions to global sea-level change, their current stability and
their sensitivity to climate change.” “Seasonal snow, lake/river ice and land ice, their effects
on the climate system, water resources, energy and carbon cycles; the representation of the
terrestrial cryosphere in land surface, atmosphere and climate models.” “Changes taking
place in permafrost and frozen ground regimes, their feedback to climate system and
terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. carbon dioxide and methane fluxes).” “Physical and
biogeochemical air–sea interaction processes on different spatiotemporal scales and their
fundamental roles in weather and climate.” “Sea-level changes from global to coastal scales
and from days (e.g. storm surges) to centuries (e.g. climate change).”
In IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report 2007 (IGOS, 2007) key science questions on the role of the
cryosphere in climate are, “What will be the nature of changes in sea-ice distribution and
mass balance in response to climate change and variability?” “What is the likelihood of
abrupt or critical climate and/or earth system changes resulting from processes in the
cryosphere?”
A science plan for a collaborative international research program on the coupled North
Atlantic-Arctic system, a report of a Planning Workshop for an International Research
Program on the Coupled North Atlantic-Arctic System (Hofmann, St. John, & Benway, 2015)
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identified as one of the key climate processes and socio-economic-policy concerns, “…how
will a changing Arctic cryosphere influence ocean-atmosphere-ice interactions, thereby
influencing biogeochemical processes and ecosystem structure?” Research questions
identified include, “What are the critical dynamic processes and feedbacks driving variability
and change in the North Atlantic-Arctic climate system?” “How will biogeochemical
processes of shelf and open ocean waters of the North Atlantic and Arctic respond to
changes in climate and increasing human pressures?” “How will marine ecosystem structure
and function respond to environmental change in climate, ocean physics, biogeochemistry,
and human pressures?”
In Final Report: Polar Space Task Group First Session (WMO, 2011-1) the preliminary list of
areas of strategic foci includes, “Polar atmospheric, ocean, cryosphere and terrestrial
products to facilitate improved weather, climate and environmental observation, monitoring
and prediction”.
The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS): Initial Science and Implementation Strategy
(Rintoul & al, 2011): includes the following overarching scientific challenges, “The role of the
Southern Ocean in the planet’s heat and freshwater balance – Substantial uncertainty
remains with regard to the high-latitude contributions to the global water cycle, the
sensitivity of the water cycle to climate change and variability, and the impact of changes in
the high-latitude water cycle on the remainder of the globe.”
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges report (WCRP, 2015):
includes the following current Grand Science Challenges: “Clouds, Circulation and Climate
Sensitivity – Limited understanding of clouds is the major source of uncertainty in Climate
Sensitivity…” “Melting Ice and Global Consequences – Processes such as the reduction of
Arctic sea ice, melting of glaciers and the thawing of permafrost… remain an important
source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change.” “Understanding and
Predicting Weather and Climate Extreme – The world climate research community is
challenged by underlying science questions and the quality and coverage of the
observational data that are used to monitor and understand extremes…” “Regional Sea-Level
Change and Coastal Impacts – These efforts will focus on all components of global to local
sea level changes and will consider the necessary analyses on global and regional climate
change data and simulations, extreme events and potential impacts…”.
In State of the Arctic Coast 2010 – Scientific Review and Outlook (Forbes, 2011) one
knowledge gap and research priority is, “Ecological state of the circum-Arctic coast – need to
better understand the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in climate…”.
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One of the biggest unanswered questions identified by the Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost
in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere report (AMAP, 2011) was, “How
will changes in the Arctic cryosphere affect the global climate?”
The Strategic Assessment of Development of the Arctic: An assessment conducted for the
European Union report (Stępień, Koivurova, & Kankaanpää, 2014): provides the following
recommendations that impact the direction of science and research in the Arctic, “Climate
Change in the Arctic: Sustaining systematic observation activities…; contributing to
international co-operation and acting via own energy policy: primary policy areas for EU
action regarding climate change…; supporting regional and local adaptation…”.
The WMO Strategic Plan 2012-2015 (WMO, 2011-2) cites the importance of enhanced
capabilities of members to “deliver and improve access to high-quality weather, climate,
water and related environmental predictions, information, warnings and services…”,
“…reduce risks and potential impacts of hazards caused by weather, climate, water and
related environmental elements”, “…produce better weather, climate, water and related
environmental information, predictions and warnings…”, “…access, develop, implement and
use integrated and interoperable Earth- and space-based observation systems for weather,
climate and hydrological observations…” and “…contribute to and draw benefits from the
global research capacity for weather, climate…”.
In European Research in the Polar Regions: A Strategic Position Paper by the ESF European
Polar Board (ESF EPB, 2010) scientific question areas include, “Thermohaline circulation
(THC) – a crucial element for heat transport globally and profoundly influences atmospheric
circulation and the Earth’s climate”, “Climate impact on terrestrial ecosystems – measuring,
understanding and predicting complex interactions between species in response to
environmental changes”, “Climate impact on marine systems – effect of climate change on
timing of reproduction at various trophic levels, causing disruption of predator-prey
relationships or patterns of competition amongst species” and “Permafrost on land and
under water – obtaining more reliable projections of how climate variability will affect the
permafrost and vice-versa through measurements of temperature, ice content of
permafrost, and of annual thaw depths in different parts of the polar regions”.
In Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the
UNFCCC - Executive Summary (GCOS, 2004) scientific needs of the parties under the UNFCCC
include, “Characterize the state of the global climate system and its variability; Monitor the
forcing of the climate system, including both natural and anthropogenic contributions;
Support the attribution of the causes of climate change; Support the prediction of global
climate change; Enable projection of global climate change information down to regional and
local scales; Enable characterization of extreme events important in impact assessment and
adaptation, and to the assessment of risk and vulnerability”.
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In The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions (National Academy of
Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “What will be the climatic, ecological, and
societal impacts of sea ice loss?”, “How do Arctic clouds, aerosols, radiation, and boundary
layer processes drive change in the Arctic climate system?”, “How will climate-induced
natural changes and associated human activities (e.g., shipping, interest in resource
development) affect marine mammal populations?”, “How unusual is the current Arctic
warmth?”, “How will rapid Arctic warming change the jet stream and affect weather
patterns in lower latitudes?”, “How will climate change affect exchanges between the Arctic
Ocean and subpolar basins?”, “Why do global climate models underestimate the loss of
Arctic ice?”, “How can we quantify the role of climate feedbacks, their variability in space
and time, and their impact on both climatic and environmental variables?”, “How will
changes in atmospheric circulation affect pollutant sources, pathways, and processes in
Arctic ecosystems and communities?”, “What benefits and risks are presented by
geoengineering and other large-scale technological interventions to prevent or reduce
climate change and associated impacts in the Arctic?”, “What are the impacts of climate and
environmental change on Arctic communities and how can communities adapt effectively?”,
“How do the distinctive features of Arctic climate change (long time horizon, uncertainty,
variable spatial scale, complexity of natural systems, interdependence of actors) shape
human perception and response?” and “What are the impacts of extreme events in the new
ice-reduced system?”
LAND SURFACE AND USE CHANGES
The ART – Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) identified the importance of historical and
archaeological studies on changing land-use patterns of native people, and the distribution
of fossil mega-fauna in addressing the research question, “What were the principal forcing
mechanisms responsible for regional variations in sea ice cover and biological productivity
during past environmental transitions?”
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges report (WCRP, 2015)
cited the need to better understand “how changes in land surface and hydrology influence
past and future changes in water availability and security” as a Changes in Water availability
challenge.
The Strategic Assessment of Development of the Arctic: An assessment conducted for the
European Union report (Stępień, Koivurova, & Kankaanpää, 2014) includes the
recommendation, “Land-Use Pressures in the European Arctic: increase knowledge
generation and sharing, and include social impact assessment more effectively in the
environmental impact assessment process”.
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The Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA report (ESA, 2015)
identified the following challenges related to the land surface and use:
Natural processes and human activities and their interactions on the land surface.
Structural and functional characteristics of land use systems to manage sustainably food,
water and energy supplies.
Land resource utilisation and resource conflicts between urbanisation, food and energy
production and ecosystem services.
How limiting factors (e.g. freshwater availability) affect processes on the land surface and
how this can adequately be represented in prediction models.
In The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions (National Academy of
Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “Will the land be wetter or drier, and what are
the associated implications for surface water, energy balances, and ecosystems?”, “How will
changing societal connections between the Arctic and the rest of the world affect Arctic
communities?”, “How will decreasing populations in rural villages and increasing
urbanization affect Arctic peoples and societies?” and “How can 21st-century development
in the Arctic occur without compromising the environment or indigenous cultures while still
benefiting global and Arctic inhabitants?”
OCEAN (SEA) STATE CHANGES
The ART – Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) identified the importance of “proxies derived
from marine sediments that provide the most continuous archive for sea ice conditions, and
large-scale oceanic changes”, “impact on sea ice patterns of atmospheric drivers, ocean
currents or sea water properties” and “modification in the lateral extent and vertical
distribution of the water masses in the Arctic Ocean” in addressing priority arctic science
questions.
The Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA report (ESA, 2015)
noted the following ocean-related research challenges:
“Regional and seasonal distribution of sea-ice mass and the coupling between sea ice,
climate, marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling in the ocean.
Effects of changes in the cryosphere on the global oceanic and atmospheric circulation.
Evolution of coastal ocean systems, including the interactions with land, in response to
natural and human-induced environmental perturbations.
Mesoscale and submesoscale circulation and the role of the vertical ocean pump and its
impact on energy transport and biogeochemical cycles.”
In its Marine Working Group 5 Year Strategy, the Arctic Ocean Sciences Board (AOSB) noted
the following relevant research priority themes for 2011-2015 (AOSB: MWG, 2011):
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“Scientific knowledge of the past and present status of the Arctic Ocean combined with
process-based understanding of the mechanisms of change and responses in the physical
and biological systems
… circulation and overturning of the ocean
… studies of relevant properties of the full water column of the central Arctic Ocean on a
regular basis and studies from the coast, over the vast continental shelves and across the
continental margin (at least every 5 years) are required, as well as evaluation of changing
sediment geochemistry over the shallow Arctic shelves
Improving access to the paleo record of the Arctic Ocean”
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) identified as a key science question, “What
will be the impact of changes in the cryosphere on the atmospheric and oceanic circulation?”
A science plan for a collaborative international research program on the coupled North
Atlantic-Arctic system, a report of a Planning Workshop for an International Research
Program on the Coupled North Atlantic-Arctic System (Hofmann, St. John, & Benway, 2015)
identified the following research questions that address important issues concerning the
ocean:
“How will biogeochemical processes of shelf and open ocean waters of the North Atlantic
and Arctic respond to changes in climate and increasing human pressures?
How will marine ecosystem structure and function respond to environmental change in
climate, ocean physics, biogeochemistry, and human pressures?”
The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS): Initial Science and Implementation Strategy
(Rintoul & al, 2011) describes as some of the overarching scientific challenges in the
Southern Ocean: the role of the Southern Ocean in the planet’s heat and freshwater balance;
the stability of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation; the role of the ocean in the
stability of the Antarctic ice sheet and its contribution to sea-level rise; and the future and
consequences of Southern Ocean carbon uptake.
One of the current science challenges in understanding and predicting weather and climate
extremes identified in the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges
report (WCRP, 2015) is “underlying science questions and the quality and coverage of the
observational data that are used to monitor and understand extremes such as … coastal sea
level surges and ocean waves”.
The report European Research in the Polar Regions: A Strategic Position Paper by the ESF
European Polar Board (ESF EPB, 2010) lists as one of its areas of strategic focus, “Polar tele-
connections – ensuring a bipolar perspective in polar research due to the ‘bridge’ between
the two polar areas via oceanic and atmospheric connections”.
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In The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions (National Academy of
Sciences, 2014), a research question is, “How much of the variability of the Arctic system is
linked to ocean circulation?”
The report AMAP Assessment 2013: Arctic Ocean Acidification (AMAP, 2013) notes that
“Stratification [due to freshwater inputs from rivers, glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet],
and the addition of poorly-buffered freshwater are two important factors that enhance the
Arctic Ocean’s sensitivity to ocean acidification.”
COASTAL ZONE CHANGES
The Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA report (ESA, 2015)
identifies as a challenge, “Evolution of coastal ocean systems, including the interactions with
land, in response to natural and human-induced environmental perturbations.”
The State of the Arctic Coast 2010 – Scientific Review and Outlook report (Forbes, 2011)
identifies as knowledge gaps and research priorities the need to improve understanding of
“the impacts of a changing sea-ice regime and wave climate on coastal stability,…
vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to changes in climate, rapid development, shipping and
tourism,… [and] societal risks of industrial activities in Arctic coastal regions… “. The report
also identifies as knowledge gaps and research priorities concerning the physical state of the
circum-Arctic coast, “…the role of river-ocean interaction and the filtering/buffering role of
deltas on carbon and nutrient delivery,… need for resources to support sustained coastal
monitoring,… [and] need for new, integrated monitoring approaches to document the
nature of environmental change and human interaction with biophysical conditions in the
Arctic coastal zone…”.
The ART – Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) contains the research question, “How will a
modified hydrological cycle and changes in coastal physical conditions affect the delivery and
transport pathways of fresh water and particulate and dissolved materials across the
terrestrial-marine interface?”
ECOSYSTEM CHANGES
The Polar research: Six priorities for Antarctic science report (Kennicutt, Chown, & al, 2014)
identified as one of the key research questions to be addressed, “What is the current and
potential value of Antarctic ecosystem services and how can they be preserved?”
The Arctic in Rapid Transition (ART) Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) listed as questions
related to priorities for Arctic marine science over the next decade:
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“How are transitions in the location and extent of marginal ice zones, leads and polynyas
affecting air-sea gas exchange and Arctic Ocean ecosystems, including human
populations?
How do transitions in sea ice conditions affect sea ice and ice-associated ecosystems and
carbon cycling on Arctic shelves and basins?
How does the transition to warmer climate affect the lateral and vertical distribution of
water masses in the Arctic Ocean and what is the potential impact on the ecosystems of
the continental shelves?
How do Arctic Ocean organisms and ecosystems respond to transitions in environmental
conditions including temperature, stratification, ice conditions, and pH?
How can changes in distribution and abundance of higher trophic level species and
increased human presence in the Arctic induce trophic cascades in the ecosystems?”
The Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA report (ESA, 2015)
contains a number of ecosystem-related challenges to be addressed:
“Regional and seasonal distribution of sea-ice mass and the coupling between sea ice,
climate, marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling in the ocean.
Changes taking place in permafrost and frozen ground regimes, their feedback to climate
system and terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. carbon dioxide and methane fluxes).
Land resource utilisation and resource conflicts between urbanisation, food and energy
production and ecosystem services.
Responses of the marine ecosystem and the associated ecosystem services to natural
and anthropogenic changes.”
The AOSB: Marine Working Group 5 Year Strategy (AOSB: MWG, 2011) identified as part of
their priority themes for 2011-2015 the following ecosystem-related topics:
Sea ice structure dynamics and the Arctic system – “study should include… biological
production and ecosystems”
Ecosystem responses to changing physical parameters in the Arctic – “understand the
vulnerability and resilience of the ecosystem to climate forcing”
The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Science
Plan and Experimental Design (MOSAiC Coordination Team, 2014) includes the following
questions:
“How do interfacial exchange rates, biology, and chemistry couple to regulate
ecosystems and the major elemental cycles in the high Arctic sea ice?
How do ongoing changes in the Arctic ice-ocean-atmosphere system impact large-scale
heat and mass transfers of importance to climate and ecosystems?”
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A science plan for a collaborative international research program on the coupled North
Atlantic-Arctic system, a report of a Planning Workshop for an International Research
Program on the Coupled North Atlantic-Arctic System (Hofmann, St. John, & Benway, 2015)
identified the following research questions:
“What are the critical dynamic processes and feedbacks driving variability and change in
the North Atlantic-Arctic climate system? And how will a changing Arctic cryosphere
influence ocean-atmosphere-ice interactions, thereby influencing biogeochemical
processes and ecosystem structure?
How will marine ecosystem structure and function respond to environmental change in
climate, ocean physics, biogeochemistry, and human pressures?”
The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS): Initial Science and Implementation Strategy
(Rintoul & al, 2011) has as one of its overarching scientific challenges, “The impacts of global
change on Southern Ocean ecosystems – The ability to predict changes in marine resources
and biodiversity, to assess ecosystem resilience, and determine feedbacks between food
webs and biogeochemical cycling depends on sustained, integrated observations of key
physical, chemical and biological parameters.”
One of the biggest unanswered questions identified by the Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost
in the Arctic (SWIPA): Climate Change and the Cryosphere report (AMAP, 2011) was, “What
will happen to the Arctic Ocean and its ecosystems as freshwater is added by melting ice and
increased river flow?”
The State of the Arctic Coast 2010 – Scientific Review and Outlook report (Forbes, 2011)
identifies as two of the key knowledge gaps and research priorities:
“Ecological state of the circum-Arctic coast – need to better understand the vulnerability
of coastal ecosystems to changes in climate, rapid development, shipping and tourism in
the Arctic and identify prime ecosystem functions and their global, regional and local
significance
Social, economic, and institutional state of the circum-Arctic coast – need to improve the
understanding of societal risks of industrial activities in Arctic coastal regions and the
socio-economic impacts of ecosystem changes”
The ecosystem-related scientific question areas that are identified in the European Research
in the Polar Regions: A Strategic Position Paper by the ESF European Polar Board report (ESF
EPB, 2010) include:
“Climate impact on terrestrial ecosystems – measuring, understanding and predicting
complex interactions between species in response to environmental changes
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Ocean acidification – quantifying the effects of ocean acidification on the few species in
large numbers that the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems generally contain
Sea ice – understanding how a thinner and weaker ice cover responds to wind and
precipitation and how its reduction impacts the polar ecosystem as a whole”.
In The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions (National Academy of
Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “How will primary productivity change with
decreasing sea ice and snow cover?”, “What are the consequences of changing vegetation
patterns and resulting responses by wildlife to ecosystem evolution in the tundra and boreal
regions of the circumpolar north?” and “What will be the impacts of ocean acidification on
marine species and ecosystems?”
SPECIES/ORGANISMS AND FOOD WEB CHANGES
The ART – Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) includes as key research questions:
“What are the tolerance limits of key organisms and how do changes in environmental
conditions affect the composition and structure of Arctic food webs, and what are the
consequences for productivity and harvestable resources?
How can changes in distribution and abundance of higher trophic level species and
increased human presence in the Arctic induce trophic cascades in the ecosystems?
Understanding of multi-year and first-year sea ice ecosystems, as well as their role in the
cycling of materials in Arctic food webs.
How will changes in the functioning of food webs impact net heterotrophic/autotrophic
processes and will they shift the source/sink potential for atmospheric CO2 in the Arctic?
The European Research in the Polar Regions: A Strategic Position Paper by the ESF European
Polar Board report (ESF EPB, 2010) identifies as scientific questions of importance to society
“measuring, understanding and predicting complex interactions between species in response
to environmental changes”, “effect of climate change on timing of reproduction at various
trophic levels, causing disruption of predator-prey relationships or patterns of competition
amongst species” and “quantifying the effects of ocean acidification on the few species in
large numbers that the Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems generally contain“. The Southern
Ocean Observing System (SOOS): Initial Science and Implementation Strategy (Rintoul & al,
2011) identifies as one of six overarching scientific challenges “The impacts of global change
on Southern Ocean ecosystems – The ability to predict changes in marine resources and
biodiversity, to assess ecosystem resilience, and determine feedbacks between food webs
and biogeochemical cycling depends on sustained, integrated observations of key physical,
chemical and biological parameters.”
In The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions (National Academy of
Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “How will species distributions and associated
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ecosystem structure change with the evolving cryosphere?”, “What will be the impacts of
ocean acidification on marine species and ecosystems?”, “What new perspectives will be
revealed through genomic and microbial analyses?” and “How will Arctic change affect the
long-range transport and persistence of biota?”
SEA ICE CHANGES
The Arctic in Rapid Transition (ART) Science Plan (Wegner & al, 2010) contains the following
science questions related to sea ice: “How can the calibration of proxy data from marine
sediments be improved through coupling with sea ice models and direct observations?”,
“What were the principal forcing mechanisms responsible for regional variations in sea ice
cover and biological productivity during past environmental transitions?”, “How do patterns
of sea ice reduction forced by elevated greenhouse gas concentrations differ from those
driven by changes in solar or oceanic forcing?” and “How do transitions in sea ice conditions
affect sea ice and ice-associated ecosystems and carbon cycling on Arctic shelves and
basins?”.
The Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA (ESA, 2015) includes
the sea ice-related challenge, “Regional and seasonal distribution of sea-ice mass and the
coupling between sea ice, climate, marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling in the
ocean.”
The AOSB: Marine Working Group 5 Year Strategy (AOSB: MWG, 2011) identified the priority
theme, “Sea ice structure dynamics and the Arctic system – study should include physical
processes such as the radiation balance, atmospheric transport of heat and water vapour,
air-ice-ocean exchanges and the circulation and overturning of the ocean, and extend from
biogeochemical processes, biological production and ecosystems to the living condition of
the local residents and the effects on and of human activities such as fishing, oil exploration,
transports and tourism”.
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report 2007 (IGOS, 2007) references the importance of the sea
ice-related science question, “What will be the nature of changes in sea-ice distribution and
mass balance in response to climate change and variability?” and includes specific
recommendations for each cryospheric element (e.g., terrestrial snow, sea ice, lake and river
ice, ice sheets, glaciers and ice caps and permafrost).
In Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) Science Plan
and Experimental Design (MOSAiC Coordination Team, 2014) a number of sea ice-related
scientific questions are, “What are the seasonally-varying energy sources, mixing processes,
and interfacial fluxes that affect the heat and momentum budgets of first-year sea ice?”,
”How does sea ice move and deform over its first year of existence?” and “How do interfacial
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exchange rates, biology, and chemistry couple to regulate ecosystems and the major
elemental cycles in the high Arctic sea ice?”.
In The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS): Initial Science and Implementation Strategy
(Rintoul & al, 2011) one of the six overarching scientific challenges is “The future of Antarctic
sea ice – A sustained observing system for Antarctic sea ice will rely heavily on remote
sensing from satellites and aircraft, as well as in situ observations for validation and
algorithm development.”
In World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges (WCRP, 2015) one of the
grand science challenges is, “Melting Ice and Global Consequences – Processes such as the
reduction of Arctic sea ice, melting of glaciers and the thawing of permafrost, in which
components of the cryosphere play a central role, remain an important source of uncertainty
in projections of future climate change.”
The State of the Arctic Coast 2010 – Scientific Review and Outlook (Forbes, 2011) identifies
one of the knowledge gaps and research priorities to be, “Physical state of the circum-Arctic
coast – need to improve understanding of the impacts of a changing sea-ice regime and
wave climate on coastal stability, including issues such as sediment entrainment and export
by sea ice and the incidence of ice ride-up and pile-up events onshore, and the role of river-
ocean interaction and the filtering/buffering role of deltas on carbon and nutrient delivery”.
In European Research in the Polar Regions: A Strategic Position Paper by the ESF European
Polar Board (ESF EPB, 2010) the sea ice-related scientific question area is, “Sea ice –
understanding how a thinner and weaker ice cover responds to wind and precipitation and
how its reduction impacts the polar ecosystem as a whole”.
In ESA-CLIC Earth Observation and Arctic Science Priorities (Baseman & al, 2015) sea ice is
identified as one of the research topics requiring immediate attention, “Sea Ice – ensured
future sea ice thickness observation capabilities; improved estimation of snow thickness over
sea ice; inter-comparison to establish the extent to which various sea ice mass balance
measurements agree; improved polynyas, thin and marginal ice processes and models, and
advanced EO-based products on ocean drift/deformation/directional ice strength.”
In The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions (National Academy of
Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “What surprises are hidden within and beneath
the ice?”, “What will we learn about the Arctic’s past from sedimentary archives accessed
through lake and ocean drilling and proxies contained in ice cores?” and “Which factors are
most important in driving seasonal variability of sea ice, ice sheets, snow cover, and the
active layer over permafrost?”
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RIVER/LAKE ICE CHANGES
The ESA – Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA (ESA, 2015)
includes the challenge, “Seasonal snow, lake/river ice and land ice, their effects on the
climate system, water resources, energy and carbon cycles; the representation of the
terrestrial cryosphere in land surface, atmosphere and climate models.”
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report 2007 (IGOS, 2007) includes specific recommendations
for each cryospheric element (e.g., terrestrial snow, sea ice, lake and river ice, ice sheets,
glaciers and ice caps and permafrost).
Research topics identified as requiring immediate attention in ESA-CLIC Earth Observation
and Arctic Science Priorities (Baseman & al, 2015) include, “Arctic hydrology – filling
knowledge gaps concerning the Arctic water cycle; improved observation of Arctic lakes and
rivers, including a long-term and sustainable observational network of lake/lake ice
monitoring sites, retrieval of lake-relevant geophysical parameters, river fluxes and river ice
and river runoff and the impact of the freshwater balance; improved pan-Arctic
representation of permafrost and high-latitude land surface, including wetlands, in climate
models.”
In The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions (National Academy of
Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “What will we learn about the Arctic’s past from
sedimentary archives accessed through lake and ocean drilling and proxies contained in ice
cores?” and “What is the potential for a trajectory of irreversible loss of Arctic land ice, and
how will its impact vary regionally?”
SNOW CHANGES
The ESA – Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA (ESA, 2015)
includes the challenge, “Seasonal snow, lake/river ice and land ice, their effects on the
climate system, water resources, energy and carbon cycles; the representation of the
terrestrial cryosphere in land surface, atmosphere and climate models.”
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report 2007 (IGOS, 2007) includes specific recommendations
for each cryospheric element (e.g., terrestrial snow, sea ice, lake and river ice, ice sheets,
glaciers and ice caps and permafrost).
In Final Report: Polar Space Task Group First Session (WMO, 2011-1) the preliminary list of
areas of strategic foci includes, “Freshwater budget closure at high latitudes (snow and
permafrost impact on polar hydrological cycle)”.
In European Research in the Polar Regions: A Strategic Position Paper by the ESF European
Polar Board (ESF EPB, 2010) the snow-related scientific question area is, “Maritime transport
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in the polar regions – technological R&D on vessels operating in polar regions, impacts of
local pollution on marine life and the reflectivity (albedo) of snow and ice surfaces, and
impacts of shipping on the ice surface, including the exposure of larger areas of open water
and reduction of albedo”.
The ESA-CLIC Earth Observation and Arctic Science Priorities report (Baseman & al, 2015)
identifies snow as one of the research topics requiring immediate attention, “Sea Ice –
ensured future sea ice thickness observation capabilities; improved estimation of snow
thickness over sea ice; inter-comparison to establish the extent to which various sea ice mass
balance measurements agree; improved polynyas, thin and marginal ice processes and
models, and advanced EO-based products on ocean drift/deformation/directional ice
strength” and “Terrestrial snow – robust method for providing information on global
terrestrial snow mass and snow water equivalent (SWE); a ‘climate data record’ of the global
snow surface albedo; advanced and robust methodologies to retrieve key parameters of
snow, such as density, grain size and snow impurities; new characterizations of the spectral
characteristics of Arctic land surfaces for monitoring of vegetation changes”.
In The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions (National Academy of
Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “Which factors are most important in driving
seasonal variability of sea ice, ice sheets, snow cover, and the active layer over permafrost?”
ICE SHEET/GLACIER/ICE CAP CHANGES
In Polar research: Six priorities for Antarctic science (Kennicutt, Chown, & al, 2014) key
research questions to be addressed include, “Are there thresholds in atmospheric CO2
concentrations beyond which ice sheets collapse and the seas rise dramatically?” and “How
do effects at the base of the ice sheet influence its flow, form and response to warming?”
In Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA (ESA, 2015) a challenge
concerning improved understanding and quantification of information related to ice sheets
and glaciers is, “Mass balance of grounded ice sheets, ice caps and glaciers, their relative
contributions to global sea-level change, their current stability and their sensitivity to climate
change.”
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report 2007 (IGOS, 2007) references the importance of ice
sheet and glacier-related science questions, “What is the contribution of glaciers, ice caps
and ice sheets to changes in the global sea level on decadal-to-century time scales?”
The Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS): Initial Science and Implementation Strategy
(Rintoul & al, 2011) describes as one of the overarching scientific challenges in the Southern
Ocean, “The role of the ocean in the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet and its contribution to
sea-level rise”.
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In World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges (WCRP, 2015) one of the
grand science challenges is, “Melting Ice and Global Consequences – Processes such as the
reduction of Arctic sea ice, melting of glaciers and the thawing of permafrost, in which
components of the cryosphere play a central role, remain an important source of uncertainty
in projections of future climate change.”
The European Research in the Polar Regions: A Strategic Position Paper by the ESF European
Polar Board (ESF EPB, 2010) identifies the ice sheet and glacier-related scientific question
area as, “Glaciers and ice sheets – better understanding of how rapidly ice sheets and
glaciers can change, including the importance of melt water for acceleration of ice
movement”.
In ESA-CLIC Earth Observation and Arctic Science Priorities (Baseman & al, 2015) research
topics identified as requiring immediate attention include, “The Greenland ice sheet mass
balance – retrievals of accumulation rates over the ice sheets; better estimation of (snow)
penetration depth; continuity of high-resolution radar altimetry; improved integration
between modelling and observations for future mass balance estimates; better use of EO-
based products in ice sheet models; detection/observation of supraglacial melt ponds and
streams”.
In The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions (National Academy of
Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “What can “break or brake” glaciers and ice
sheets?”, “How is the large-scale opening of the Arctic shelves changing interactions among
ice, ocean, atmosphere, ecology, and society?” and “Which factors are most important in
driving seasonal variability of sea ice, ice sheets, snow cover, and the active layer over
permafrost?”
PERMAFROST CHANGES
In Scientific Context of the Earth Observation Science Strategy for ESA (ESA, 2015) a challenge
concerning improved understanding and quantification of information related to permafrost
is, “Changes taking place in permafrost and frozen ground regimes, their feedback to climate
system and terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. carbon dioxide and methane fluxes)”.
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report 2007 (IGOS, 2007) includes specific recommendations
for each cryospheric element (e.g., terrestrial snow, sea ice, lake and river ice, ice sheets,
glaciers and ice caps and permafrost).
In Final Report: Polar Space Task Group First Session (WMO, 2011-1) the preliminary list of
areas of strategic foci includes, “Freshwater budget closure at high latitudes (snow and
permafrost impact on polar hydrological cycle)” and “Circumpolar changes in permafrost and
terrestrial biosphere (consequences for carbon and hydrological cycles)”.
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In World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges (WCRP, 2015) one of the
grand science challenges is, “Melting Ice and Global Consequences – Processes such as the
reduction of Arctic sea ice, melting of glaciers and the thawing of permafrost, in which
components of the cryosphere play a central role, remain an important source of uncertainty
in projections of future climate change.”
The European Research in the Polar Regions: A Strategic Position Paper by the ESF European
Polar Board (ESF EPB, 2010) identifies the permafrost-related scientific question area as,
“Permafrost on land and under water – obtaining more reliable projections of how climate
variability will affect the permafrost and vice-versa through measurements of temperature,
ice content of permafrost, and of annual thaw depths in different parts of the polar regions”.
In ESA-CLIC Earth Observation and Arctic Science Priorities (Baseman & al, 2015) research
topics identified as requiring immediate attention include, “Arctic hydrology – filling
knowledge gaps concerning the Arctic water cycle; improved observation of Arctic lakes and
rivers, including a long-term and sustainable observational network of lake/lake ice
monitoring sites, retrieval of lake-relevant geophysical parameters, river fluxes and river ice
and river runoff and the impact of the freshwater balance; improved pan-Arctic
representation of permafrost and high-latitude land surface, including wetlands, in climate
models.”
In The Arctic in the Anthropocene: Emerging Research Questions (National Academy of
Sciences, 2014), research questions include, “How will the ecosystem and built infrastructure
respond to widespread degradation of permafrost?” and “Which factors are most important
in driving seasonal variability of sea ice, ice sheets, snow cover, and the active layer over
permafrost?”
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APPENDIX 2: REFERENCES TO INFORMATION PARAMETER REQUIREMENTS
The following sections identify where specific references to information parameter
requirements were identified in the literature review.
ATMOSPHERE RESEARCH
In IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) references to information requirements
include, “smaller-scale properties, such as sea ice texture, brine content, or frost flowers, are
important for understanding… the role of sea ice in chemical interactions with the
atmosphere” and ”understanding and modelling the response of glaciers to atmospheric
forcing requires data on glacier mass balance, glacier/atmosphere interaction, and ice
dynamics”.
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice –
Focusing on Synthetic Aperture Radar, 2014) references to information requirements
include, “measurements of the characteristics of snow on sea ice, including snow thickness
and its distribution, fractional snow coverage, snow density, and snow conductivity would be
very useful in models”, “leads and polynyas dramatically affect the local albedo and the heat,
moisture, salt and other chemical fluxes, as well as the momentum transfer, between the
ocean and atmosphere”, “leads can enhance the transfer of mercury and ozone from the
atmosphere to the surface through boundary layer effects”, “knowing the thickness of lake
ice is important for… estimating the heat and moisture exchanges with the atmosphere”.
In Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs (Pope & al, 2015) references to
information requirements include, “key observing need[s]… include aerosol composition and
amount, cloud optical depth, cloud supercooled liquid water path, absorbed shortwave
radiation, and the vertical structure of clouds, temperature, and humidity”.
CLIMATE RESEARCH
In IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) references to information requirements
include, “Studies of glacier mass balance and dynamics are… important for climate research”
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include,
“together with concentration, thickness [of sea ice] is needed to compute the ice volume…
an important indicator of changing climate”, “ice concentration is probably the single most
important variable for climate modeling… because it largely determines the surface heat
fluxes to and from the atmosphere”, “for climate modeling… a complete ice thickness
distribution across the model domain is needed”, “the drift of sea ice… is an essential
component in the calculation of ice volume fluxes… important for climate change research
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(ice mass balance)”, “sea ice drift and deformation data are crucial for climate model…
optimization and validation", “increased atmospheric boundary layer instability and low-
level cloud formation associated with leads and polynyas have significant wide-ranging
impacts on… climate”, “the length of the [sea ice] melt and freeze seasons is an important
parameter to monitor for climate change”, “landfast (fast) sea ice distribution is thought to
be a sensitive indicator of climate variability and change, especially in Antarctica” and “Our
ability to forecast northern… climate… depends on knowledge of how the [lake] ice cover
affects energy and water budgets”.
In Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs (Pope & al, 2015) references to
information requirements include, “Sea-ice volume (including ice thickness and
concentration) and snow cover are two of the main climate applications” and “near-surface
wind speeds and directions have been used in the Southern Ocean to initialize weather…
models”.
In Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010 (WMO, 2010) references to
information requirements include, “research scientists use [sea] ice information relating to
research on… climate change”.
WEATHER RESEARCH
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include,
“increased atmospheric boundary layer instability and low-level cloud formation associated
with leads and polynyas have significant wide-ranging impacts on weather” and “ability to
forecast northern weather… depends on knowledge of how the [lake] ice cover affects
energy and water budgets”.
In Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010 (WMO, 2010) references to
information requirements include, “research scientists use [sea] ice information relating to
research on… meteorology”.
LAND SURFACE AND USE CHANGE INFORMATION
In The Role of Land-Cover Change in the High Latitude Ecosystems: Implications for the
Global Carbon Cycle: Part 2 (McGuire, 2003) references to information requirements include,
“satellite data sets available for comparison include… NDVI, LAI, and FAPAR derived from
AVHRR data”.
The LCLUC Interactions with Arctic Hydrology: Links to Carbon Cycle report (McDonald & al,
2008) contains the references to information requirements, “Satellites can measure land
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surface processes and environmental factors that control C fluxes – Lake/wetland extent,
Inundation / soil moisture, NDVI, River stage”
OCEAN STATE AND COASTAL ZONE CHANGE INFORMATION
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include,
“landfast ice plays an important role in polynya formation and thus in bottom water
production”, “icebergs are an important factor in the transport of freshwater and nutrients
and play a key… role in the biology of the polar seas” and “iceberg mass is… the key to
estimating mass loss from the ice sheets and freshwater input into the oceans”.
The Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs report (Pope & al, 2015)
contains the references to information requirements, “monitoring changes in sea-ice extent
and volume are particularly important… to the multi-faceted relationship of sea ice and the
freshwater balance, albedo, oceanic CO2 flux, and biological activity in the Southern Ocean”,
“Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is an important physical parameter for… ocean dynamics,
biological activity in the upper ocean, air-ocean exchange, and ice-ocean exchange”, ”sea
level or sea-surface height… is a parameter related to ocean water density (i.e., salinity,
temperature), local fluxes, and variable gravity”, “in addition to clouds, fluxes, and aerosols,
large-scale atmospheric circulation in the Antarctic plays an important role in understanding
trends / changes in… ocean state” and “Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) observations can play an
important role in understanding the upper ocean”.
The Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010 report (WMO, 2010) contains the
reference to information requirements, “research scientists use [sea] ice information relating
to research on… oceanography”.
In Norwegian policies in ICZM and requirements for data and methods, adapting to climate
change (Klingsheim, 2011) references to information requirements include, “Coastal data /
fisheries. Including fairways and harbours, anchorage, routes for underwater cables and
pipelines, important areas for fisheries, aquaculture, and sea traffic data”.
In Geographic Information Systems help manage coastal areas (Rodríguez & al, 2010)
references to information requirements include, “data on factors including sea swell,
climate, structural conditions and the slope of the coast… data on wind transport, swell,
sediments and vegetation in the dunes”.
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ECOSYSTEM CHANGE INFORMATION
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) contains the reference to information
requirements, “observations of biological and chemical constituents [of sea ice] are
important for understanding the ecosystems associated with sea ice”
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include, “snow
on ice… is a critical component in the ecology of certain ice-dependent species”, “breakout
and melting of fast ice has a significant impact on freshwater and nutrient supply for
generating phytoplankton blooms”, “ice on inland water bodies can have major
socioeconomic impacts due to disruption of… wildlife habitat” and “Knowing the thickness of
lake ice is important for… understanding eco-system impacts”.
SPECIES/ORGANISMS AND FOOD WEB CHANGE INFORMATION
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include, “snow
cover [on ice] affects the availability and spectral characteristics of light for primary
biological production both within and under the sea ice cover” and “changes in patterns of
sea-ice convergence and divergence may become an important factor for wildlife in the
Arctic. As the Arctic Ocean becomes predominantly FYI, which is rougher than MYI, there
may be an increase in the available habitat for seals and polar bears, aiding their survival”.
SEA ICE CHANGE INFORMATION
In IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) references to information requirements
include, “Basin-scale observations of sea ice concentration/extent, thickness distribution,
motion, melt, albedo, and temperature are required to understand the large-scale dynamic
and thermodynamic evolution of sea ice cover seasonally and from year to year”.
The Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar report (Falkingham, 2014) includes the references to information
requirements, “ice drift velocity is affected by the roughness of the top and bottom ice
surfaces… [which] is important for modeling ice motion” and “high-precision ice drift data
are required for process studies related to sea ice rheology (the relationship between ice
stress and deformation)”.
In Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs (Pope & al, 2015) references
to information requirements include, “recommendations for in situ data for improved sea-
ice products are having access to better knowledge of: 1) Density distribution of snow and
ice for conversion of freeboard (from satellite altimetry) into thickness, 2) Accuracy of snow
depth, 3) Accuracy and validation of freeboard, and 4) Areas of flooding at the snow-ice
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interface”, “a need for more data from locations of sea-ice polynyas and leads was
expressed”, “in addition to clouds, fluxes, and aerosols, large-scale atmospheric circulation in
the Antarctic plays an important role in understanding trends / changes in sea ice” and
“near-surface wind speeds and directions have been used in the Southern Ocean to
initialize… sea ice drift models”.
RIVER/LAKE ICE CHANGE INFORMATION
In User requirements for the snow and land ice services – CryoLand (Malnes & al, 2015)
references to river/lake ice information requirements include, “Ice extent and ice
concentration, Snow covered area on lake ice, First and last day of ice cover, River ice jam,
flood inundation area, Lake surface temperature, Snow depth on lake ice”.
The Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar report (Falkingham, 2014) contains the reference to information
requirements, “knowing the thickness of lake ice is important for… predicting ice melt and
break-up”.
In Cool research projects probe river ice life cycle (Cairney, 2015) references to information
requirements include, “Research… studies the formation and evolution of frazil ice—the
smallest ice crystals that form when river water begins to freeze… trying to understand,
model, and predict the behaviour of rivers and ice when ice covering rivers begins to break
up, potentially causing floods or damage to homes and public infrastructure”
The River ice mapping and monitoring using SAR satellites report (Van der Sanden, 2012)
contains the references to information requirements, “Types of information derived from
radar images that feed into the development of the hydraulic model include ice type
distribution, ice jam locations, ice cover break-up sequence, extent/location/duration of
break-up flooding”.
SNOW CHANGE INFORMATION
In User requirements for the snow and land ice services – CryoLand (Malnes & al, 2015)
references to snow information requirements include, “Snow cover fraction, Snow extent,
Snow water equivalent, Melting snow area, Snow surface wetness, Spectral surface albedo,
snow surface temperature”.
In IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) references to information requirements
include, “as much as 75 percent of water supplies in the western United States come from
snowmelt”.
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ICE SHEET/GLACIER CHANGE INFORMATION
In User requirements for the snow and land ice services – CryoLand (Malnes & al, 2015)
references to glacier information requirements include, “Glacier outlines, Snow/ice area on
glaciers, Glacier ice velocity, Glacier lakes”.
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include,
“[icebergs] are important in the study of the evolution and break-up of floating ice sheets
and ice shelves”.
PERMAFROST CHANGE INFORMATION
The Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs report (Pope & al, 2015)
contains the reference to information requirements, “surface temperatures from thermal
infrared sensors can be used to drive permafrost models”.
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT INFORMATION
In Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010 (WMO, 2010) references to
information requirements include, “environmental consultants use ice data, analyses and
expert advice for environmental impact assessments”.
In Environmental Impact Assessment in the Ice-Filled Waters, Do We Have the Necessary
Information? (Matishov, Dzhenyuk, & Dahle, n.d.) references to information requirements
include, “To fulfill biological chapters of environmental impact assessment… leading
ecological factors are variability of ice edge in the off-sea area and phases of ice processes in
the coastal areas”.
The Australian guidelines for preparation of IEEs and CEEs (Australian Antarctic Division,
2015) contains the references to information requirements, “A description of the
environment in which the activity is to be performed… should include: the physical
characteristics (e.g. topography, bathymetry, geology, geomorphology, soils, hydrology,
meteorology, and ice conditions)… inventories of plant and animal species… sea ice cycles,
ecosystem dynamics, phytoplankton production and decomposition… current and proposed
land use”.
Methodologies for Remote Sensing of the Environmental Impacts of Industrial Activity in the
Arctic and Sub-Arctic (Rees & Rigina, 2003) notes that mining and other resource
development activities are have significant impacts on the environment in the Arctic and
Sub-Arctic. Remote sensing methods, and particularly space-based earth observation are
well established as an effective tool for monitoring impacts including landscape condition
and change and oil spill detection, for example. Multiple platforms and sensors are being
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used including visible, near-infrared, thermal infrared, passive and active microwave with the
majority of applications using visible-infrared multispectral and some positive results using
microwave.
ENGINEERING DESIGN INFORMATION
In Development Drilling and Production Platforms (Winkler & Strømme, 2014) references to
information requirements include, “Water depth is one of the basic parameters in the choice
of platform type”, “Soil properties are one of the most important drivers for determination
of platform configuration”, “wave erosion … has to be evaluated and mitigation means
considered” and “Seismic acceleration … values are … appropriate for early front-end
planning”.
In ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two:
Technology and Operations (National Petroleum Council, 2015) references to information
requirements include, “Platform design. Statistical characterization of governing ice features
that produce design-level loads (thickness, frequency, drift speed)”, “Pipelines. Ice gouging
rates as a function of water depth and any sheltering bathymetry, statistical characterization
of ice keel depth and frequency of occurrence”, “the general ice drift behavior for a region is
required for engineering and planning activities”, “relating ice strength to ice temperature
and salinity is an important relationship that is used … to calculate ice loads”, “ice islands and
ice island fragments… are important design considerations for permanent structures” and
”the borehole indenter system measur[es] a vertical strength profile through the full ice
thickness … useful for calculating forces on structures (particularly crushing against a vertical
face) and for verifying the integrity (bearing capacity) of floating ice”.
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) contains the references to information
requirements, “it has become customary to consider the impact of climate warming in
engineering design, especially for large structures or those where the consequences of
failure are significant (e.g., mine tailing containment facilities, oil and gas pipelines)”.
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include, “for
offshore construction, the drift and thickness of ice are key parameters in the calculation of
ice loading”.
OPERATIONS PLANNING INFORMATION
In ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two:
Technology and Operations (National Petroleum Council, 2015) references to information
requirements include, “Exploration drilling. Ice edge location, forecasts of ice edge
movement, concentration and ice types if operating in ice, meteorological and
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oceanographic conditions and forecasts”, “Logistics. Routine operations, ice concentration,
type, ice charts, forecasts, ice pressure”, “Describing the ice by type, thickness, and floe size
is important for Arctic operations”, “When characterizing ridges, the most commonly
captured parameters include the maximum depth of the ice below the surface (keel draft),
the height it protrudes above the surrounding level ice (sail height), and the length of the
ridge”, “Grounded rubble features that remain stationary for long periods of time will
consolidate into large ice masses [that] have the potential to refloat, while still intact, and
present challenges from an ice management or ice loading perspective”, “multi-year ridges
and hummocks … often represent ‘unmanageable ice’, which typically must be avoided by
suspending operations and moving off station”, “ice observers’ logs can be used to extract
ice thickness, sail height data, ridging intensity, and the occurrence of pressured ice”,
“acoustic remote sensing from submerged platforms … has been … useful in providing
information on sea ice thickness and its variations”, “acoustic doppler current profiler
(ADCP), deployed either nearby (shallow water) or on the same mooring (deep water), is
paired with the IPS [ice-profiling sonar to] measure the ice drift at high temporal resolution
(sub-hourly)”, “multibeam sonar has also been successfully used to survey the underwater
profiles of icebergs” and “Direct measurement of ice thickness can be obtained by drilling a
hole through the ice … and utilizing a tape with a deployable anchor to measure the distance
from the bottom of the hole to the surface … [as well as] information on snow thickness, ice
elevation, draft, thickness, and void spaces in deformed ice”.
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) contains the references to information
requirements, “Knowledge of [river and lake] ice thickness is important for the
determination of trafficability on lakes and rivers in winter, and for the planning of winter ice
roads in the North”.
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include,
“knowledge of ice thickness is needed to plan ship and offshore operations in areas affected
by ice”.
ROUTE PLANNING INFORMATION
The ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two:
Technology and Operations report (National Petroleum Council, 2015) contains the reference
to information requirements, “Ice and iceberg charts serve tactical (day-to-day) or strategic
(longer-term) planning and operational purposes”.
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include,
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“knowing the thickness of lake ice is important for estimating its load-bearing capacity for
on-ice transportation”.
In Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010 (WMO, 2010) references to
information requirements include, “the commercial shipping industry uses [sea] ice
information for strategic and tactical vessel passage planning”.
SAFE NAVIGATION AND OPERATIONS INFORMATION
In ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two:
Technology and Operations (National Petroleum Council, 2015) references to information
requirements include, “real-time ice monitoring and forecasting of short-term ice conditions
requires observing: location and extent, ice drift (actual and forecast), ice concentrations
(total and partial), ice thickness and pack ice pressure”, “understanding the ice
concentration, thickness, and pack ice pressure moving toward the installation identifies
where ice management is needed and the acceptable managed floe size”, “aerial
surveillance through visual observation by qualified personnel enables collection of local ice
cover information near the operational area in near real time”, “cameras mounted or used
from aircraft can provide valuable qualitative information about sea ice… such as
approximate size, location, and quantity of multi-year ice floes and ridging, stages of
development, descriptions of cracks, leads, polynyas, and location of the ice edge”,
“electromagnetic induction (EMI) sounding devices [are used for] the measurement of sea
ice thickness”, “LIDAR mounted to an aircraft [is used] to create swath maps of sea ice
freeboard and surface elevations”, “[ship-based] marine radars are used … [for] high-
resolution imaging of ice, including small, slow-moving features”, “shore-Based Marine
Radar … systems … produce still images and animations for observation of ice movement,
deformation, breakout events, and stability of fast ice” and “ice drift monitoring and
forecasting are key components of an ice management system, because it is crucial to know
where the ice is coming from and to estimate where it is going in order to efficiently deploy
ice management resources”.
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) contains the references to information
requirements, “transportation is affected by changes in snow cover, fresh-water and sea ice
extent and thickness, and the degradation of permafrost”, “precise knowledge of the ice
edge location and ice age/type (or stage of development)…[is] required for safe navigation
and operational support in ice-covered waters” and “other parameters such as sea ice
thickness, snow cover, meltponds, leads, and ridges, and their distributions… are needed for
navigating through the ice with icebreakers, and under the ice with submarines”.
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include, “the
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separation of FYI [first year ice] and MYI [multi-year ice] is important for navigation”,
“Another key distinction is between pack ice and landfast (fast) ice. While pack ice is, by
definition, in constant motion under the influence of wind, ocean currents and internal ice
stresses, fast ice forms a stationary cover along the coastal margins of both the Arctic and
Antarctic”, “snow on ice… can impact navigation of ice-capable vessels due to friction”, “ice
drift is important to identify areas of convergence and divergence - both situations that are
of primary concern for navigation”, “velocity convergence leading to deformation of the ice
can dramatically and rapidly increase its thickness… [which] is of great importance to
navigation and offshore activities”, “sustained ridge building can create “stamukhi” or
grounded ice ridges… particularly hazardous to offshore and coastal structures”, “for
navigation in ice-covered waters, floe size is an important variable”, “leads and polynyas are
important for marine transportation – both surface and submarine – as well as for on-ice
travel”, “better understand[ing of] the behaviour of icebergs, particularly their drift and
deterioration… is critical to reduce the risk of operating in areas frequented by icebergs”,
“iceberg draft is needed to determine if it can ground in a particular area… essential for
seabed structures such as pipelines and production manifolds”, “small icebergs, bergy bits
and growlers… are the most hazardous forms of floating glacier ice”, “ice on inland water
bodies can have major socioeconomic impacts due to disruption of ship transportation,
fishing activities” and “knowledge of river ice is needed to… build and maintain… ice-roads”.
The Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs report (Pope & al, 2015)
contains the reference to information requirements, “sea level or sea-surface height… is
useful for logistical operations in some regions (e.g., Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea)”.
In Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010 (WMO, 2010) references to
information requirements include, “the Canadian Coast Guard uses weather and [sea] ice
information for marine safety, icebreaking operations and efficient marine transportation”,
“fishing fleets obtain enroute and on-site [sea] ice conditions for ice-encumbered areas”,
“the offshore oil and gas companies use iceberg and sea ice information for exploration and
production, both on-site and in transit”, “the marine construction industry uses site-specific
current and historical [sea ice] data for offshore and onshore projects, such as bridges and
port facilities” and “the tourism industry gets technical and general [sea ice] information for
the operation of cruise ships and the enjoyment of passengers”.
RISK MANAGEMENT INFORMATION
In Arctic Opening: Opportunity and Risk in the High North1 (Emmerson & al, 2012) references
to information requirements include, “Access to accurate and up-to-date weather/ice
1 Although there is no universally accepted definition of “high north”, it appears to have been used initially in
Norway, and seems to be generally considered synonymous with the Arctic (see
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information during the voyage”, “many operators employ data from ships and satellites to
provide a real-time picture of sea ice movements” and “risks will be exacerbated by a
number of secondary factors, which include: poor maps, poor hydrographic and
meteorological data and poor satellite navigation information”.
The ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two:
Technology and Operations report (National Petroleum Council, 2015) contains the
references to information requirements, “single pass, wideband, dual frequency (X-band and
P-band) interferometric airborne radar mapping [is used to make] sea ice thickness
measurements [that] include characterization of first-year sea ice from multi-year sea ice, as
well as the identification of cracking ice networks and ice ridges, [which] provide actionable
intelligence for assessing the risk of oncoming ice conditions and enabling operators to
mitigate high-risk ice floes from fixed locations in the Arctic”.
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) contains the references to information
requirements, “Some countries rely on snowmelt forecasting to predict floods and snowmelt
runoff and to provide flood alerts”, “estimating the risk of sea-ice bottom gouging is
necessary for determining safe burial depth for marine cables and pipelines”, “observation of
mechanical snow properties… including grain size, grain shape, stratigraphic structure,
hardness, liquid water content, strength and stability…are required for evaluation of
avalanche hazards” and “river-ice duration and break-up exerts significant control on the
timing and magnitude of extreme hydrologic events such as low flows and floods”.
In Perspectives for a European Satellite-based Snow Monitoring Strategy: A Community
White Paper (Luojus & al, 2014) references to information requirements include, “natural
hazard assessments and risk managements count on timely and accurate products
(snowmelt) for flood forecasting and avalanche warnings”.
The Sea Ice Information Services in the World: Edition 2010 report (WMO, 2010) contains the
reference to information requirements, “the marine insurance industry uses [sea] ice
information for risk assessment for offshore operations affected by ice”.
The goal of the IMO Polar Code (IMO, 2015a), which will come into effect on January 1, 2017,
is “to provide for safe ship operation and the protection of the polar environment by
addressing risks present in polar waters”. The Polar Code requires the use of “systems, tools
or analysis that evaluate the risks posed by the anticipated ice conditions to the ship, taking
http://www.geopoliticsnorth.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=1:an-international-research-project&catid=44&showall=&limitstart=1)
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into account factors such as its ice class, seasonal changing of ice strength, icebreaker
support, ice type, thickness and concentration.”
EMERGENCY RESPONSE INFORMATION
In ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two:
Technology and Operations (National Petroleum Council, 2015) references to information
requirements include, “Oil spill response. Statistical description of ice concentration, drift
characteristics, timing of freeze-up, transition to winter conditions, presence of leads and
polynyas, operational conditions.”
In Guidelines for Offshore Oil Spill Response Plans (API, 2013) references to information
requirements include, “Provide brief summary of available temperature (air and water),
wind, wave, and surface current information for the geographic response area. Include
tables with associated information such as monthly or seasonal maximum, minimum, mean
values for wind and current speeds, temperatures, wave heights, precipitation, etc. and
average wind and current directions.”
In Environmental Impacts of Arctic Oil Spills and Arctic Spill Response Technologies (Word,
2014) references to information requirements include, “Estimating the fate and effect of oil
from various spill scenarios can be accomplished by use of spill trajectory models… requires
historical weather data, ocean current data, and identification of likely oil types and their
physical and chemical characteristics. In the Arctic, trajectory modelling can be severely
affected by sea ice”.
SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS INFORMATION
The ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two:
Technology and Operations report (National Petroleum Council, 2015) contains the
references to information requirements, “Escape, evacuation, and rescue. Statistical
description of ice concentration, drift characteristics, ice topography, rubble accumulation
tendencies (also noting difference between exploration systems and platform designs)”.
WEATHER FORECASTING INFORMATION
In Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: From Minutes to Months (WMO, 2015-7)
references to information requirements include, “a body of evidence that suggests that
ocean surface temperature in the extra-tropical Gulf Stream region could affect large-scale
atmospheric circulation”, “both the cool skin (a very thin layer near the surface less than
1mm thick) and the diurnal warm layer (up to a few meters deep) have to be taken into
account”, “[ocean] salinity profile”, “the surface wind stress aligned with the surface
currents”, “The surface gravity waves on the interface between the atmosphere and ocean
are being increasingly recognised as critically important”, “The roughness of the surface
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plays a role in air-sea transfer of momentum, gasses, sea-spray aerosols, bubbles, etc.”,
“high and low wind speeds over the ocean”, “snow depth, snow water equivalent, surface
temperature, density, snow grain size and albedo”, “albedo of sea ice”, “sea ice surface
temperature”, “ice thickness distribution”, “sea ice models need to represent the properties
of both snow and meltponds [on sea ice]”, “sea ice velocity gradients”, “deformations of the
sea ice cover”, “[sea] ice mass balance” and “the sails and keels of pressure ridges are
important topographic features”.
In High Arctic Weather Stations (Stossel, 2015) the information types measured by the
stations include, “radiosonde instrument that transmits temperature, pressure and humidity
information through a cross-section of the lower 30 km of atmosphere; the radiosonde is
electronically tracked to determine wind velocity and direction as the instrument rises aloft”,
“solar and terrestrial radiation levels, are recorded”, “Ice thickness, freeze-up/break-up data
and snow depth measurements are taken biweekly nearly year-round” and “Other scientific
activities include seismic and magnetic recordings, air quality measurements and aerosol
monitoring”.
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) contains the references to information
requirements, “Cryospheric variables such as solid precipitation, snow cover, snow water
equivalent, snowstorms, icing, and river-, lake-, soil-, and sea-ice freeze-up and breakup
times are components of weather forecasting in cold climate regions.”, “snow depth is used
by atmospheric models to estimate surface roughness”, “observation of snow temperature is
also important for determination of energy budgets and related processes such as
snowmelt”, “major factors are the high albedo of snow and ice surfaces, the latent heat
associated with the phase changes between ice and liquid water, the insulating effects of
snow cover [and] the delaying effects of seasonal snow and ice cover on annual energy and
water cycles, the fresh water stored in ice sheets and glaciers, and the greenhouse gases
locked up in permafrost” and “recent investigations have shown the importance of lake ice
cover… for boreal climate modelling, and for improving numerical weather prediction”.
In Observational Aspects of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project (Fairall & al, 2013) references
to information requirements include, “winds, air-sea momentum flux, and surface wave
spectra”, “sea ice forecasting”, “direct flux (turbulent, radiative, precipitation)
measurements, clouds, aerosols, and atmospheric/oceanic chemistry”, “ice cover, ice
thickness, snow depth on ice, albedo, [snow] crystal structure”, “sea ice deformation over
large regions”, “ice deformation and redistribution during ridging”, “Surface temperature,
humidity, clouds and winds are all important”, “summer sea ice extent” and “ozone
profiles”.
The Workshop Report on Predicting Arctic Weather and Climate and Related Impacts (NOAA, 2014)
contains the information requirements related to weather forecasting, “Sea ice forecasts are
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critically important for NOAA services and stakeholders”, “Improved initialized ice concentra-
tion data for RAP weather forecasts”, “Incorporate more cloud and moisture observations to
improve model initializations”, “better representation of the marginal ice zone (MIZ) in sea ice
models; cloud microphysics” and “upper ocean and ice thickness information for ice freeze
forecasts, ice thickness for summer forecasts”, “Improve snow depth, snow cover, ice cover,
and ice thickness analysis for operational model initialization or assimilation” and “key
features such as leads, melt ponds and locations of marginal ice zones”.
In ARCTIC POTENTIAL: Realizing the Promise of U.S. Arctic Oil and Gas Resources, Part Two:
Technology and Operations (National Petroleum Council, 2015) references to information
requirements include, “surface velocity program beacons … drift with the ice, providing a
record of vectors of the ice motion … [enabling] study of relative movement of the ice and
rotation … [and] these data are assimilated into Numerical Weather Prediction models”.
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include, “ice
concentration is probably the single most important variable for… NWP because it largely
determines the surface heat fluxes to and from the atmosphere”, “for… NWP, a complete ice
thickness distribution across the model domain is needed”, “sea ice drift and deformation
data are crucial for… NWP optimization and validation”, “determining the concentration and
types of ice is most important on very large lakes, Great Lakes which… [have] a strong
influence on regional weather and climate”.
In Community Review of Southern Ocean Satellite Data Needs (Pope & al, 2015) references to
information requirements include, “assimilation of global positioning system (GPS) radio
occultation (RO) soundings into numerical weather prediction models can have a substantial
positive impact on weather analyses and forecasts across the Southern Hemisphere”.
The Perspectives for a European Satellite-based Snow Monitoring Strategy: A Community
White Paper (Luojus & al, 2014) contains the references to information requirements, “snow
parameters are required for developing, initializing and validating the corresponding models,
improving regional weather forecasting and, e.g., warnings of severe storms”, “key variables
in the NWP snow analysis are snow extent and snow water equivalent”.
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION INFORMATION
The IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007) contains the references to information
requirements, “sea level rise is a major concern for heavily populated coastal areas and is
critical for a number of small island nations … the contribution [of glaciers] to current global
sea level rise may be much larger than that from the ice sheets” and “wave-induced
undercutting of the permafrost leads to collapse of coastal bluffs and subsequent erosion by
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the action of waves and currents… reduction of the sea ice cover, and especially of the fast
ice, [allows] waves to grow and become more destructive as they approach the coast”.
In Systematic Observation Requirements for Satellite-Based Data Products for Climate – 2011
Update, Supplemental details to the satellite-based component of the “Implementation Plan
for the Global Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (2010 Update)”
(WMO, 2011-3) references to information requirements include, “GCOS recommends the
following products in the atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial domains for priority action by
the space agencies” (see Tables 2, 3 and 4).
Table 24: Overview of Products – Atmosphere
Essential Climate Variables Global Products Requiring Satellite Observations
Surface Wind Speed and Direction Surface wind retrievals
Precipitation Estimates of liquid and solid precipitation, derived from specific instruments and provided by composite products
Temperature Upper-air temperature retrievals
Temperature of deep atmospheric layers
Upper-air Wind Speed and Direction
Upper-air wind retrievals
Water Vapour Total column water vapour
Tropospheric and lower-stratospheric profiles of water vapour
Upper tropospheric humidity
Cloud Properties Cloud amount, top pressure and temperature, optical depth, water path and effective particle radius
Earth Radiation Budget Earth radiation budget (top-of-atmosphere and surface)
Total and spectrally-resolved solar irradiance
Carbon Dioxide, Methane and other GHGs
Retrievals of greenhouse gases, such as CO2 and CH4, of sufficient quality to estimate regional sources and sinks
Ozone Total column ozone
Tropospheric ozone
Ozone profiles from upper troposphere to mesosphere
Aerosol Properties Aerosol optical depth
Aerosol single scattering albedo
Aerosol layer height
Aerosol extinction profiles from the troposphere to at least 35km
Precursors supporting the Ozone and Aerosol ECVs
Retrievals of precursors for aerosols and ozone such as NO2, SO2, HCHO and CO
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Table 25: Overview of Products – Oceans
Essential Climate Variables Global Products requiring Satellite Observations
Temperature Integrated sea-surface temperature analyses based on satellite and in situ data records
Sea-surface Salinity Datasets for research on identification of changes in sea-surface salinity
Sea Level Sea-level global mean and regional variability
Sea State Wave height, supported by other measures of sea state (wave direction, wavelength, time period)
Sea Ice Sea-ice concentration/extent/edge, supported by sea-ice thickness and sea-ice drift
Ocean Colour Ocean colour radiometry – water leaving radiance
Oceanic chlorophyll-a concentration, derived from ocean colour radiometry
Table 26: Overview of Products – Terrestrial
Essential Climate Variables Global Products requiring Satellite Observations
Lakes Lake levels and areas of lakes in the Global Terrestrial Network for Lakes (GTN-L)
Snow Cover Snow areal extent, supplemented by snow water equivalent
Glaciers and Ice Caps 2D vector outlines of glaciers and ice caps (delineating glacier area), supplemented by digital elevation models for drainage divides and topographic parameters
Ice Sheets Ice-sheet elevation changes, supplemented by fields of ice velocity and ice-mass change
Albedo Reflectance anisotropy (BRDF), black-sky and white-sky albedo
Land Cover Moderate-resolution maps of land-cover type
High-resolution maps of land-cover type, for the detection of land-cover change
FAPAR Maps of the Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation
LAI Maps of Leaf Area Index
Biomass Regional and global above-ground forest biomass
Fire Disturbance Maps of burnt area, supplemented by active-fire maps and fire-radiative power
Soil Moisture Research towards global near-surface soil-moisture map (up to 10cm soil depth)
Land-surface Temperature Land-surface temperature records to support generation of land ECVs
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According to The Second Report on the Adequacy of the Global Observing Systems for
Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (WMO, 2003), in 2003 the Global Climate Observing
System (GCOS) program, working with the other global observing systems2 and on behalf of
its Sponsors3, established a list of the Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) (i.e. physical,
chemical, or biological variables or a group of linked variables that are required to support
the work of the UNFCCC and that are technically and economically feasible for systematic
observation), as indicated in Table 5.
Table 27: Essential Climate Variables
Domain Essential Climate Variables
Atmospheric (over land, sea and ice)
Surface: Air temperature, Precipitation, Air pressure, Surface radiation budget, Wind speed and direction, Water vapour.
Upper-air: Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance), Upper-air temperature (including MSU radiances), Wind speed and direction, Water vapour, Cloud properties.
Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, Ozone, Other long-lived greenhouse gases
4, Aerosol properties.
Oceanic
Surface: Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice, Current, Ocean colour (for biological activity), Carbon dioxide partial pressure.
Sub-surface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, Carbon, Ocean tracers, Phytoplankton.
Terrestrial5
River discharge, Water use, Ground water, Lake levels, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice caps, Permafrost and seasonally-frozen ground, Albedo, Land cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR), Leaf area index (LAI), Biomass, Fire disturbance.
In Global Satellite Observation Requirements for Floating Ice – Focusing on Synthetic
Aperture Radar (Falkingham, 2014) references to information requirements include, “the
separation of FYI [first year ice] and MYI [multi-year ice] is important for… monitoring the
impacts of climate change”.
2 The Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS), the World
Weather Watch (WWW) with its Global Observing System (GOS) and the Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW). 3 World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
(UNESCO) and its Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the International Council for Science (ICSU). 4 Including nitrous oxide (N2O), chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs),
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), and perfluorocarbons (PFCs). 5 Includes runoff (m
3 s
-1), ground water extraction rates (m
3 yr
-1) and location, snow cover extent (km
2) and
duration, snow depth (cm), glacier/ice cap inventory and mass balance (kg m-2
yr-1
), glacier length (m), ice sheet mass balance (kg m
-2 yr
-1) and extent (km2), permafrost extent (km
2), temperature profiles and active layer
thickness, above ground biomass (t/ha), burnt area (ha), date and location of active fire, burn efficiency (%vegetation burned/unit area).
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The Perspectives for a European Satellite-based Snow Monitoring Strategy: A Community
White Paper (Luojus & al, 2014) contains the reference to information requirements,
“reliable information is needed on past and future variations in snow cover to assist policy
and decision makers in their efforts to define impact and adaptation activities”.
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APPENDIX 3: USER REQUIREMENTS SPANNING MULTIPLE DOMAINS
The following sections identify where user requirements that do not relate to specific
science or operations domains were identified in the literature review.
GLOBAL CRYOSPHERE WATCH OBSERVATION REQUIREMENTS
The World Meteorological Organization's Global Cryosphere Watch (GCW) is an international
mechanism for supporting all key cryospheric in-situ and remote sensing observations. GCW
provides authoritative, clear, and useable data, information, and analyses on the past,
current and future state of the cryosphere. GCW is formulating observational requirements
drawing from various sets of existing user requirements, which are published on their
website. Two key sources are the Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review Tool
(OSCAR) (WMO, 2015-1) and the IGOS Cryosphere Theme Report (IGOS, 2007). The GCW
Observational Requirements website identifies multiple variables for the following
cryospheric elements: sea ice, snow, freshwater ice, ice sheet, glacier, iceberg, permafrost,
precipitation and surface temp / albedo.
OBSERVING SYSTEMS CAPABILITY ANALYSIS AND REVIEW TOOL (OSCAR)
The WMO Rolling Review of Requirements (RRR) process develops a consensus view
between WMO members on the design and implementation of WMO integrated observing
systems (WMO, 2015-2). The most recent RRR report identifies the following WMO
application areas, which are activities involving primary use of observations that allow
National Meteorological Services or other organizations to render services in a specific
domain related to weather, climate and water (WMO, 2014): global numerical weather
prediction (GNWP), high-resolution numerical weather prediction (HRNWP), nowcasting and
very short range forecasting (NVSRF), seasonal and inter-annual forecasting (SIAF),
aeronautical meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, ocean applications, agricultural
meteorology, hydrology, climate monitoring (as undertaken through the Global Climate
Observing System, GCOS), climate applications and space weather.
OSCAR, the official repository of requirements for observation of physical variables in
support of WMO Programmes and Co-sponsored Programmes, is the foundation of the RRR
process. The OSCAR database contains some 750 variables covering the 12 RRR application
areas. In addition, OSCAR provides information on satellite observation capabilities for
approximately 35 capabilities (WMO, 2015-3) and gap analyses to indicate how relevant an
instrument is for the measurement of the selected variable, based on instrument design
characteristics (WMO, 2015-4).
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IGOS CRYOSPHERE THEME REPORT
The Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) is a strategic planning process initiated by
partners comprised of the Global Observing Systems (GOS), the International Organizations
that sponsor the Global Observing Systems, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
(CEOS), and International Global Change Science and Research programmes. The IGOS
Cryosphere Theme Report identifies the requirements in cryospheric observations, data and
products, and provides recommendations on their development and maintenance. The
report includes tables providing current measurement capabilities and observational requirements for
the following cryosphere domains (IGOS, 2007): terrestrial snow (seven parameters), sea ice (11
parameters), lake and river ice (nine parameters), ice sheet (21 parameters), iceberg (seven
parameters), glaciers and ice caps (eight parameters), snow/ice temperature and albedo
(two parameters), terrestrial permafrost and seasonally frozen ground (24 parameters) and
snowfall (four parameters).
SENTINEL CONVOY ANALYSIS REPORTS
The European Space Agency (ESA) funded three exploratory studies (EO-Convoy) in three
thematic areas (ocean and ice, land and atmosphere) in order to investigate and develop
novel mission concepts. The reports of these studies identified the observation capabilities
from current and planned operational satellite missions, and the current and predicted gaps
in observational capabilities with respect to the operational and scientific needs.
The Ocean and Ice Observation Capabilities, Gaps and Opportunities report identifies the
following key application areas and information requirements in three categories (Astrium,
2013-1):
Oceans (nine information variables subject to regular and sustainable observations from
satellites): global and regional operational weather forecasting, seasonal to inter-annual
forecasting, global oceanography nowcasting and operational open ocean monitoring,
coastal oceanography nowcasting, regional and coastal monitoring, global climate–
monitoring and climate change and treaty verification
Sea Ice (11 information variables subject to regular and sustained observations from
satellites): sea ice mass balance and freshwater redistribution, surface energy balance
and air-sea interactions, offshore infrastructure design, sea ice model development,
0perational ice monitoring and operational ice forecasting and outlooks
Land Ice (18 information variables subject to regular and sustained observations from
satellites): climate monitoring and prediction, global and regional weather forecasting,
sea level rise, water resources and energy generation, ecosystem management,
agriculture, transportation, engineering, recreation, tourism, disasters and hazards
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The Sentinel Convoy for Land Processes Task 1: Critical Review and Gap Analysis report
documents science needs and related information variables (some variables apply to
multiple categories) in the following categories (Remedios, Humpage, Ghent, & Whyte,
2012):
The Carbon Cycle (seven information variables): quantitative knowledge and spatial
distribution of carbon stocks and fluxes, and upscaling of point observations of carbon
fluxes (NEE, GPP, TER) to global scales
Surface Energy Balance (11 information variables): assimilation of land surface
parameters into numerical weather prediction models and monitoring of surface energy
balance and water status of continental biosphere
The Water Cycle (seven information variables): interaction of vegetation with water cycle
variables, modelling of horizontal water transport and flux of moisture between the
Earth’s surface and atmosphere by evapotranspiration
Terrestrial Ecosystems (nine information variables): estimation of vegetation stocks and
productivity, monitoring the impact of fires on the carbon cycle and atmospheric
composition and improved estimation of LAI using rededge information
Biodiversity (five information variables): monitoring of habitat types, ecosystems, land
use for biodiversity,
Land Use and Land Cover (10 information variables): estimation of vegetation stocks and
productivity and monitoring of habitat types, ecosystems, land use for biodiversity
Human Population Dynamics (five information variables): urban energy balance and
characterization
Essential Climate Variables (eight information variables): adequate long term
observations of variables relevant to monitoring climate change
Volcanos (five information variables): observation of volcano thermal properties
The EO Atmosphere Capabilities, Gaps and Opportunities report identifies the following key
application areas and information requirements in two categories (Astrium, 2013-2):
Atmospheric Composition and Chemistry (33 information variables): upper tropospheric
and lower stratospheric composition and chemistry, stratosphere and mesosphere
composition and chemistry, tropospheric composition and carbon dioxide and methane
Meteorology (30 information variables) (from Oscar, 2014): global NWP, regional NWP,
nowcasting, synoptic meteorology, seasonal forecasting, aeronautical meteorology,
agricultural meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, hydrology, marine meteorology,
WCRP, climate and climate monitoring
ARCTIC IN RAPID TRANSITION NETWORK (ART) PRIORITY SHEETS
ART has developed Priority Sheets for Future Directions of Arctic Sciences that provide
indications of environmental information requirements.
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The Arctic Biodiversity Priority Sheet identifies the following types of information needed
(Majaneva & al, 2015):
Spatial gaps in the sea-ice associated ecosystems and the deep-sea pelagic and benthic
systems
Confirmed species absence in up-to-date biodiversity inventories.
The Land-Ocean Interactions Priority Sheet identifies the following types of information
needed (Fritz & al, 2015):
Conceptual model of coastal retreat since the last ice age with the help of paleo-
environmental data
Temporal changes in ice sheet configuration, paleohydrology, catchment size, freshwater
budget and subsurface hydrogeological conditions
Paleoenvironmental data on regression and transgression history, and on ice sheet
growth and decay.
The Arctic Oceanography Priority Sheet identifies the following types of information needed
(Findlay & al, 2015):
Fate of terrestrial carbon in the ocean (thawing permafrost, weathering, river discharge,
coastal erosion)
Two-way fluxes through the sediment-water interface including particles, pore fluids and
gases, and the impact of bioturbation
Role of terrestrial organic carbon in the ongoing acidification of arctic shelf seas
Temporal dynamics of the vertical distribution of pelagic organisms across daily to
seasonal scales
Transfer of energy through trophic levels, combining isotope technologies, biomarkers,
and model-ling approaches
Potential of freshwater budget to change oceanic chemical composition, especially
salinity, alkalinity and ph
Stability of the halocline and the nutricline on a seasonal timescale
Temporal and spatial understanding of gas exchanges across air-ice-sea interfaces
Extent of light penetration and photochemical reactions
Potential impact of invasive species arriving from ballast water and shipping activities
Potential pollutants, the transportation of these pollutants into the arctic, and the impact
on local species and communities including local peoples.
The Proxy Calibration and Evaluation Priority Sheet identifies the following types of
information needed (Werner & al, 2015):
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Past environmental conditions (temperature, salinity, sea ice, freshwater input, current
regime etc.) in the (sub-)Arctic oceans
Seasonal population changes in sediment records (different size fractions of microfossils,
different biomarkers etc.)
Loss and alteration of organic matter during its transport through the water column
Impact of sea-ice distribution and current patterns on transport and export fluxes of
organic and inorganic matter
Organic and inorganic proxy preservation and diagenetic overprint
The Physical Processes in Arctic Sea Ice Priority Sheet identifies the following types of
information needed (Renner & al, 2015):
In situ validation of remote-sensing observations (both satellite and airborne)
Representation of the ice thickness distribution in global climate models
Snow thickness and state on various scales: from space, in-situ and with autonomous
platforms
Parameterisations of snow and melt ponds for inclusion in global climate models
The Paloeoceanographic Time Series from Arctic Sediments Priority Sheet identifies the
following types of information needed (O'Regan & al, 2015):
Millennial-scale climate and oceanographic variability in sediments in order to
reconstruct past response of the Arctic marine system to abrupt climate changes
Terrestrially-derived sea-level curves and deglacial dating
Detailed and accurate mapping of seabed and shallow sub-seabed environments
Combination of bathymetric and seismic data together with chronological and proxy data
extracted from core analysis for reconstructing paleo environments
ESA DUE PERMAFROST REQUIREMENTS BASELINE DOCUMENT AND FINAL REPORT V2
The DUE Permafrost project was funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) Data User
Element (DUE) program, a component of the Earth Observation Envelope Program (EOEP).
The goal of the project was to demonstrate (EO integrated services in the field of permafrost
monitoring of the boreal zone, based on an assessment of user requirements. The
information requirements identified through a user survey and the Global Climate Observing
System (GCOS) implementation plan included (Bartsch & al, 2009) (Bartsch & al, 2012)
(Bartsch & Heim, 2013):
Near-surface air temperature (seasonal range of air temperature variations (amplitude),
monthly near-surface air temperature, mean annual air temperature)
Land surface temperature (brightness surface temperature corrected towards Skin
Surface temperature between soil/air)
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Soil moisture (skin soil moisture, moisture content at different depths, freeze/thaw-
degree days, solid-liquid ratio)
Snow water equivalent
Snow cover extent and depth
Land cover (vegetation physiognomy / bare soils / water body / sand / peatland / moss,
area percentage of water body, area percentage of vegetation physiognomy, area
percentage of bare soil)
Elevation and topography/DEM (relative and absolute elevation, slope, aspect, feature
and change detection, variability within the grid cell)
Elevation change (subsidence due to thaw settlement, heave in the active layer)
Albedo (i.e. no snow, no leaf condition)
Leaf area index (LAI) or another volumetric index of total vegetation or an index of height
of vegetation cover
Runoff
Methane emissions (Methane content in atmospheric column)
GEO 2012-2015 WORK PLAN – ANNUAL UPDATE 27 NOVEMBER 2014
The GEO Work Plan provides the framework for implementing the GEOSS 10-Year
Implementation Plan (2005-2015). The plan identifies information, tools, and end-to-end
systems that should be available through GEOSS to support decision-making across nine
Societal Benefit Areas. The information requirements in each area include (GEO, 2014):
AGRICULTURE – Supporting sustainable agriculture and combating desertification: crop
and livestock production projections, early warning of famine, agricultural land use
change and pasture/rangeland biomass
BIODIVERSITY – Understanding, monitoring and conserving biodiversity: global,
standardized inventory of major ecosystems and the protected areas within them and
biodiversity change
CLIMATE – Understanding, assessing, predicting, mitigating, and adapting to climate
variability and change:
Estimates of past and current climate to better detect climate variability and change
Historical atmospheric, terrestrial and marine observations
Proxy-based paleoclimate records over the last two millennia for the arctic and all
continents (including adjacent ocean regions)
Regional-scale reconstructions of seasonal variations in temperature, precipitation, and
atmospheric pressure fields
Annual updates of the carbon balance for key regions
Harmonized global carbon information based upon existing observations (land, ocean,
atmosphere and human dimension)
Greenhouse-gas data and products for CO2 and CH4
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Multi-year anthropogenic and natural flux trends
Estimates of biomass, forest carbon stocks, and disturbances
Estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes attributed to human action versus natural
processes at policy relevant scales
Distributions and changes in global and regional biomass
DISASTERS – Reducing loss of life and property from natural and human-induced
disasters
Integrated baseline geographic information, in-situ data, reference maps, and
observational data required in emergency events
Comprehensive natural-hazards datasets
Global earthquake and volcano monitoring, alert, and damage assessment
Comprehensive datasets for improving, time-dependent, earthquake hazard estimates
Large-area vulnerability modeling and mapping
Seismic and sea-level data (deep-ocean and tide-gauge)
Global tsunami hazard map through provision of bathymetry and topography data
Electromagnetic hazard monitoring (high-energy particle and hard UV fluxes in upper
atmosphere)
Harmonized global fire information (e.g. Fire danger) by integrating regional data wildfire
information
ECOSYSTEMS – Improving the management and protection of terrestrial, coastal and
marine resources
Global standardized ecosystem classification system and map for terrestrial, freshwater,
and marine ecosystems as a basis for worldwide inventory, assessment and monitoring
Operational monitoring of major ecosystems on land on an annual basis, including
properties such as land cover type; species composition; vegetation structure, height and
age; net ecosystem productivity; and biomass and carbon estimates of vegetation and
soils
Global and regional desertification
Temporal and spatial variations of ecosystems
Ecosystem resilience (i.e. The capacity to resist, and recover from, changes, such as
habitat fragmentation and alien species invasion)
Characterization, mapping and monitoring of global protected areas
Impact of landscape changes resulting from human activities (e.g. Construction, tourism,
agriculture) and environmental disasters (e.g. Ground subsidence, earthquakes, floods)
Changes in ecosystem extent, condition, structure, function, and composition
Phenology observations (in-situ and space-based)
Changes in global-change sensitive parameters such as forest carbon, vegetation, glacier,
snow and aerosol distributions
Production and delivery of ecosystem goods and services, from ecosystems to consumers
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Identification of potential supersites and natural laboratories
Critical aspects of mountain areas with steep topography and high elevations
ENERGY – Improving management of energy resources
Prediction of potential hazards to the energy infrastructure
Prediction of the production of intermittent sources of energy
Mapping of renewable energy potential
Improved energy management, including balance between energy demand and supply as
well as development of alternative energy scenarios.
Safe, efficient and affordable development and operation of existing and new energy
resources, with emphasis on minimizing environmental and societal impact while moving
towards a low-carbon footprint
Assessment of countries' potential for energy production
Quantity, distribution, usage, and quality of biomass in Africa
Assessments of vegetation-cover degradation or changes
Geothermal anomalies using thermal and mineral mapping under different climate
conditions (desert, savannah, rain forest)
HEALTH – Understanding environmental factors affecting human health and well-being
Distribution of meningitis and population at highest risk
Surveillance and prediction of seasonal influenza and early detection of pandemic
influenza
Aerosol effects on marine and terrestrial ecosystems
Near-real-time air quality observations and forecasts for health management, research
and public information
Environmental factors affecting the distribution and re-emergence of leptospirosis
Impact of extreme events, and climate variability and change, on the vulnerability of
water sanitation systems globally, and related burden of water-borne disease
Coastal and inland aquatic system health and human health impact from vibrios,
contaminants, and harmful algal blooms
Vector-borne disease monitoring
Environmental conditions conducive to the spread of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases
Dynamics and mechanisms underlying the relationship between social stressors, changes
in biodiversity, and disease transmission to humans (e.g. For lyme disease, west nile
virus)
Linkages between disasters (e.g. Floods, earthquakes, volcanic activity, tsunami,
cyclones) and areas prone to vector and waterborne diseases
Health consequences of intensive agricultural land-use
Pollutants and their compounds in air, atmospheric deposition, water, soil, sediments,
vegetation and biota
Vertical profiles of mercury species across the troposphere and lower stratosphere
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Changing levels of Persistent Organic Pollutants (pops) in the natural environment
WATER – Improving water-resource management through better understanding of the
water cycle
Changes in the water cycle (including precipitation, evapo-transpiration, soil moisture,
river discharge and storage in lakes and reservoirs, and groundwater storage), quantity
and quality of both surface and groundwater
“Watershed” and human health indicators
Global evapo-transpiration products for vegetated land surfaces, and also for lakes and
rivers, deserts, urban areas and snow-covered land-areas
Global soil-moisture product and service for climate and water management applications
Integrated data sets from the great lakes basin providing information on extent of ice
cover, surface and groundwater levels, and bacteria conditions at beaches
Global data compendium of the state of hydrological systems and affiliated water
resources, their accessibility and use by society
Real-time flood and drought information (forecasts and observations)
Data sets for monitoring frozen ground, glaciers, ice sheets, sea ice, and snow
Water-quality datasets
WEATHER – Improving weather information, forecasting and warning
User-driven probabilistic products such as tropical cyclone tracks, heavy rainfall and
strong wind distributions
GLOBAL SATELLITE OBSERVATION REQUIREMENTS FOR FLOATING ICE – FOCUSING ON
SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR
The objective of this study was to identify the required set of satellite measurements of
global sea ice, icebergs and freshwater ice on inland water bodies to address key science
questions relevant to the assessment of the impacts of climate change in the polar regions.
The following information requirements are identified in the report (Falkingham, 2014):
Sea Ice: ice cover / extent / concentration, ice classification / type, ice thickness, snow
cover on sea ice (depth and evolution), ice drift / motion, ice deformation (ridges, rafts
and rubble), floe size distribution, leads and polynyas, melt/freeze onset / melt pond
formation and evolution, and landfast (fast) ice
Iceberg: automated iceberg detection in open water, automated iceberg detection in sea
ice, iceberg dimensions and mass and calving / melt rates
Freshwater Ice: Lake ice phenology (freeze-up / break-up), lake ice concentration and
classification, lake ice and snow thickness, river ice phenology (freeze-up / break-up),
river ice classification and river ice thickness
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OUTLINE OF A TECHNICAL SOLUTION TO A GLOBAL CRYOSPHERIC CLIMATE MONITORING
SYSTEM
This technical white paper describes a system designed to provide regular and long-term
delivery of products based on observations of essential variables in the cryosphere, in
particular for the polar regions. The user information requirements identified in the paper
are as follows (Solberg & al, 2006):
Geophysical variables to retrieve for climate monitoring
Sea ice – extent, concentration (ice fraction per area unit), thickness, drift (speed and
direction), albedo
Seasonal snow – extent, coverage (snow fraction per area unit), albedo, depth, water
equivalent, surface temperature, wetness
Glaciers and ice sheets – surface type, mass balance, ice volume
Lake and river ice – presence of ice, ice thickness
Permafrost – presence of permafrost, thaw depth
Climate change indicator variables
Sea ice – minimum and maximum seasonal extent, number of ice days (per area unit),
break-up date (per area unit), refreeze date (per area unit)
Seasonal snow – number of snow days (per area unit), date of snow-free surface (per
area unit), first snowmelt start date (per area unit)
Glaciers and ice sheets – annual minimum and maximum area of each surface type, first
date of surface melt (per area unit), equilibrium line altitude (average or contour map)
Lake and river ice – break-up date, refreeze date, maximum ice thickness
Permafrost – surface thaw date, day of surface refreeze, number of thaw days
SAR SCIENCE REQUIREMENTS FOR ICE SHEETS
This document, tabled at the WMO Polar Space Task Group (PSTG) Third Session in May
2013, outlines the SAR data requirements for the ice sheets of Antarctica and Greenland. The
report identifies science requirements for ice sheets based on a user survey conducted in
2012 under the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) Ice Sheets Essential Climate Variable
(ECV) project, which were low resolution in the interior areas and high resolution in the
margin areas of ice sheets for both surface elevation changes and ice velocity (Scheuchl,
2013).
COORDINATED SAR ACQUISITION PLANNING FOR TERRESTRIAL SNOW MONITORING
This white paper, tabled at the WMO Polar Space Task Group (PSTG) Fourth Session in
September 2014, sets out recommendations for coordinated acquisition planning for SAR
satellite observations of terrestrial snow. The paper identifies the following key user
information requirements: snowmelt area, snowmelt liquid water content, and
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differentiation between dry/wet/no snow and wet soil, as well as frozen/thawing soil (Small
& al, 2014).
ICE INFORMATION SERVICES: SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS AND EARTH OBSERVATION
REQUIREMENTS 2007 UPDATE
This report discusses the benefits of ice information to industry, governments, citizens and
society, either directly or as a contributor to improved weather and climate prediction. The
report identifies the observational requirements for three key uses – near-real-time marine
operations, regional numerical weather forecasting and climate monitoring and science – as
follows (IICWG, 2007):
Sea ice extent – relative and absolute edge location
Sea ice concentration – accuracy and range
Sea ice stage of development – distinguish new, young, first-year and multi-year ice
Sea ice thickness
Fast sea ice boundary
Forms of floating ice – floe diameter
Leads/polynyas
State of decay – percentage area of meltponds
Sea ice topography – ridge height
Sea ice motion – accuracy and range
Icebergs – maximum waterline dimension
River ice extent – relative and absolute edge location
River ice concentration – accuracy and range
THE CONTRIBUTION OF SPACE TECHNOLOGIES TO ARCTIC POLICY PRIORITIES
This report resulted from a study for ESA designed to provide a perspective on how space-
based technologies can support Arctic policies at national, regional, and international levels.
The analysis identifies the contribution that communications, weather, navigation, earth
observation, surveillance, and science technologies can make to meet current and future
arctic policy requirements. The following user requirements for information were
documented (Polar View, 2012):
Safety
Weather forecasts
Sea ice and iceberg location and characteristics
Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals
Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) signals
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Ice cover on rivers and lakes used as ice roads
Floe edge (i.e., the boundary between immobile near-shore ice and moving sea ice)
Near-shore ice conditions
Sea surface temperature
Wind fields, target detection and classification
Distress alert and location information to help search and rescue
Extent of disasters, the type of destruction that has occurred, and the areas most
severely impacted
Marine oil spill detection and monitoring
Environment
Vegetation stress, algal blooms and variations in water sediment loads that may result
from pollution of land and water
Deposition of mine tailings
Changes in vegetation cover as a result of industrial activities
Discharge of pollutants from offshore structures
Monitoring and tracking of atmospheric pollution and trace gases
Water quality monitoring, including chlorophyll, sediment concentration and
concentration of dissolved organic matter
Time series of surface temperature, tropospheric and stratospheric measurements
Atmospheric essential climate variables (ECVs), particularly the surface and upper-air
elements (e.g., temperature, precipitation, water vapour, radiation budgets, etc.)
Sea ice, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, ocean colour, glaciers, biomass,
etc.
Gravity measurements
Movements of animal populations
Pace and distribution of habitat loss or conversion
Sustainable Economic Development
Location and characterization of snow and ice cover (land and sea ice)
Land stability within permafrost regimes
Land cover and land changes
Impacts of climate change trends on physical infrastructure
Space weather impacts on technology systems and infrastructure (i.e., communication
cables, power systems, pipelines and radio communication and navigation systems)
Locations of areas of open water within ice fields, as well as areas of thin, first-year ice
Sovereignty
Movement of illegal goods such as drugs and nuclear materials
Tracking vessels engaged in illegal activities
Detection and monitoring the movement of opposing troops and equipment
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Changes of traffic at specific locations (e.g. Suspected/actual military installations, critical
transportation links)
Indigenous and Social Development
Real-time information on ice ridges, moving ice or stretches of open water
EARTH OBSERVATION AND CRYOSPHERE SCIENCE: THE WAY FORWARD
This paper summarises the main results and conclusions from the Earth Observation for
Cryosphere Science Conference, held in Frascati, Italy in November 2012 and provides
guidance for future research. The paper identifies user requirements for environmental
information in several categories, as follows (Fernández-Prieto & al, 2013):
Snow – cover extent, mass, grain size, albedo, dust and carbonaceous particles in snow,
radiative forcings and responses to regional increases in emissions, quantification of SWE
Permafrost – seasonal freezing depth within the active layer, surface elevation changes
(frost heave and subsidence), coastal and cliff erosion over large areas, subsidence
associated with thaw settlement of the active layer and other hydrologic changes,
geophysical surface products such as Land Surface Temperature (LST), Surface Soil
Moisture (SSM), Frozen/non frozen ground, snow extent, SWE, and biophysical
vegetation parameters,
Lake and river ice – lake ice concentration, extent and phenology, thickness, timing of
lake ice formation and disappearance, temporal variations of floating and grounded ice in
shallow lakes; river ice coverage, duration, phenology (freeze-up/ break-up dates and ice
cover duration)
Ice sheets – elevation/volume and mass changes, mass balance estimation, ice flow
velocities, albedo changes, ice sheet facies, change in ice flow dynamics, melting and
basal hydrological processes below ice sheets, in-situ data (e.g. automatic weather
stations, ice thickness, accumulation records, rock uplift, etc.)
Ice shelves – mass balance and its components, disintegration events, ice exported from
grounded glaciers to ice shelves, changes and fluctuations of inflow to ice shelves in
response to changing boundary conditions (e.g. surface mass balance, increased
surface/basal melt, etc.), the grounding line position of ice shelves and how it fluctuates
with time, rates of glacier or ice stream acceleration, changes in the seasonal surface
melting and melt ponding, quantification of ice loss due to calving, role of ocean
circulation for ice shelf melt rates, mass balance and stability, vertical and horizontal
deformation and quantification, onset and progression of fracturing, surface motion and
deformation on ice streams, and in grounding zones of ice shelves, in-situ observations of
the ocean (surface temperature and salinity) and on the ground (weather, GPS,
accumulation, sub-ice and near-ice ocean properties and circulation, and surface energy
balance)
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Glaciers and ice caps – ice thickness, glacier area and volume changes, high-resolution
DEMs, accumulation/snowfall over glaciers and ice caps
Sea ice – thickness and thickness distribution, drift, snow thickness on thick sea ice,
distribution of flooded and meteoric ice, classification of sea ice types and age, polynya
monitoring along the coast and sea ice drift monitoring, monitoring of the ice sheet
margins, validation data for Arctic sea ice
PRELIMINARY SCIENTIFIC NEEDS FOR CRYOSPHERE SENTINEL 1-2-3 PRODUCTS
This document provides results from a review on scientific needs of the cryosphere Sentinel
1-2-3 products, consolidated during the SEN4SCI workshop (March 22-24, 2011, ESA-ESRIN,
Frascati, Italy). It identifies the following variables required for cryospheric research (Rott &
Nagler, 2011):
Snow cover, global – snow cover area, snow water equivalent, snow depth, surface
albedo, snow melt area
Snow cover regional – snow cover area, snow water equivalent, snow depth, surface
albedo, grain size, snow liquid water content
Lake and river Ice – ice area, concentration, thickness
Permafrost and frozen ground – spatial distribution, active layer depth, soil freezing area,
surface temperature
Sea ice – ice extent, edge, thickness, drift, concentration and type, leads, polynyas, snow
depth on sea ice
Mountain glaciers and ice caps – glacier area, surface topography, facies, snowline,
glacier dammed lakes, ice velocity, surface accumulation, ice thickness
Ice sheets – ice margin, grounding line, surface topography, elevation change and
velocity, snow accumulation, surface melt extent, ice thickness, internal layer depth
Icebergs – size, position, draft, drift velocity
SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATION REQUIREMENTS FOR SATELLITE-BASED DATA PRODUCTS FOR
CLIMATE – 2011 UPDATE
This report provides supplemental details to the Implementation Plan for the Global
Observing System for Climate in Support of the UNFCCC (WMO, 2004), which recognizes the
importance of deriving products and data records of physical variables from the
measurements made by satellites. The report identifies the following essential climates
variables in three domains (WMO, 2011-3):
Atmospheric (over land, sea and ice) – Surface wind speed and direction; precipitation;
upper-air temperature; upper-air wind speed and direction; water vapour; cloud
properties; Earth radiation budget (including solar irradiance); carbon dioxide; methane
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and other long-lived greenhouse gases; and ozone and aerosol properties, supported by
their precursors
Oceanic – Sea-surface temperature; sea-surface salinity; sea level; sea state; sea ice;
ocean colour
Terrestrial – Lakes; snow cover; glaciers and ice caps;, ice sheets; albedo; land cover
(including vegetation type); fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation
(FAPAR); Leaf Area Index (LAI); above-ground biomass; fire disturbance; soil moisture
WMO 2012 SURVEY ON THE USE OF SATELLITE DATA
The purpose of this survey was to collect information on the availability and use of satellite data
and products by users globally, and to identify any areas for improvement and remedial
action. The target audience for the survey was users in National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services organizations (NMHSs) of the World Meteorological Organization
(WMO) Member states and territories and other satellite users worldwide active in the fields
of meteorology, climate, hydrology, disaster risk reduction and related environmental
applications. The following information requirements were identified in four categories
(WMO, 2012-3):
Atmosphere: clouds, precipitation, temperature and humidity, winds, aerosol dust,
volcanic ash, imager radiances, radiative fluxes, ozone, sounder radiances, lightning,
greenhouse gases and other trace gases, and GNSS bending angles
Oceans: sea surface temperature, ocean surface winds, sea ice, sea level, ocean colour,
sea state (wave spectrum), sea surface salinity, ocean surface pollution
Terrestrial: surface radiation and albedo, soil moisture, inland waters (rivers, lakes,
floods), land surface temperature, vegetation (fapar, ndvi...), land cover, snow, ice
sheets, glaciers and ice caps, fire, biomass and digital elevation models
Space Weather: ionospheric, geomagnetic, energetic particles and solar activity
SNOW, WATER, ICE AND PERMAFROST IN THE ARCTIC (SWIPA): CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
CRYOSPHERE
This report presents the findings of an assessment conducted between 2008 and 2011 by the
Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) in close cooperation with the
International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), the World Climate Research
Programme/Climate and Cryosphere (WCRP/CliC) Project and the International Arctic Social
Sciences Association (IASSA). Information requirements related to the cryosphere are
identified in seven themes as follows (AMAP, 2011):
Climate (Surface air temperatures, Snow and rainfall precipitation, Winds, Waves, River
discharge, Clouds, Oceanic heat inflows, Greenhouse gas emissions, Soil moisture and
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temperature; freezing and thawing within soils, Special landscape types (e.g. shallow
lakes, organic soils), Snowmelt storage in small depressions and ponds)
Snow (Cover extent, Cover depth, Age, Local-scale variability in terrain and vegetation,
Snow water equivalent (SWE) (i.e. the depth of liquid water that would result from
melting the snow), Snow cover duration (SCD), Snowpack
condition/structure/stratigraphy (e.g. grain size, density, ice layers), Impurities in the
snowpack (e.g. leaf litter and organic and black carbon), Height, density, and distribution
of vegetation, Heavy metal content in snow)
Permafrost (Extent, Thickness, Active-layer thickness (ALT), Thermal condition, Carbon
pools in permafrost soils, Unfrozen zones (taliks), Changes in local factors (e.g. snow
cover, vegetation, soil organic layer thickness, thermal properties of the earth materials,
soil moisture/ice content and drainage conditions), Warming rates, Permafrost
landforms, Surface buffering layer, Interactions among the different geomorphological
processes and permafrost dynamics, Thermokarst landforms, Periglacial landforms (e.g.
ice-wedge or tundra polygons, pingos, palsas), Bottom-fast ice)
Lake and River Ice (Extent, Ice thickness (or volume), Ice composition, Ice cover duration,
Type (e.g. white, black, icings, frazil), Changes to landscape hydrology, in-stream
hydraulics, and river ice mechanics, Surface snow accumulation, Open-water discharge,
Snow cover thickness on ice, Water level to bottom of ice-depth, Oxygen-hydrogen
isotopes, Lake-ice phenological processes, Heat storage of lakes, River flow
hydrodynamics (e.g. depth, velocity, erosional capacity, forces applied on the ice cover,
and water surface slope), Annually laminated sediment sequences/sediment profiles)
Glaciers and Ice Caps (Ice cap extent and size, Glacier extent and size, Glacier thermal
structure, Glacier mass loss, Glacier surface melting rates/runoff, Glacier flow rates,
Glacier hypsometry (i.e. area-altitude distribution), Surface mass balance change (i.e.
annual balance between mass gains, due mainly to snowfall, and mass losses, due mainly
to surface melting and runoff and iceberg calving), Iceberg calving rates, Ice thickness at
the glacier terminus, Iceberg size and distribution, Changes in temperature and salinity of
ocean water adjacent to calving ice fronts)
Ice Sheets (Ice sheet extent and size, Ice sheet mass loss, Surface melting rates,
Meltwater runoff)
Sea Ice (Extent, Type/age (new, first-year, multi-year), Thickness (or volume),
Concentration (fractional coverage), Drift, Ice edge, Ice floes, Deformation (i.e. breaking,
rafting, and formation of pressure ridges) / Ice topography, Fractional cover, Snow depth
and density on ice, Surface and internal temperatures (or energy), Horizontal velocity,
Salinity, Snow-ice formation, Number of layers in the ice, Polynyas (areas of open water
surrounded by ice), cracks and leads, Snow density, Ice porosity, Brine pockets, Proxy
data (e.g. tree rings, ice cores, and sediment cores), Surface and bottom melt of drifting
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ice floes, Landfast ice, Sea-ice albedo, Melt ponds, Impurities in the ice surface and
snowpack (e.g. black carbon))
COMMUNITY REVIEW OF SOUTHERN OCEAN SATELLITE DATA NEEDS
This review represents the perspectives from a range of stakeholders, both research and
operational, in the Southern Ocean community on satellite data needs for the coming
decade. It is designed to provide the rationale and information required for future planning
and investment. The following requirements for environmental information derived from
satellite observations and in-situ measurements are identified in the paper (Pope & al,
2015):
Sea Ice (Sea ice area, Sea ice extent, Sea ice thickness, Sea ice concentration, Snow cover,
Sea ice edge, Sea ice drift)
Sea Surface Temperature (Daily measurements, Monthly averaged data, Synoptic
coverage of specific regions)
Sea Level/Sea Surface Height (Synoptic coverage of specific regions)
Atmospheric Parameters (Temperature, Humidity, Water vapor, Pressure, Precipitation,
Energy budget, Cloud properties (vertical structure, optical depth, supercooled liquid
water path), Absorbed shortwave radiation, Ozone, Aerosol composition, amount and
transport, Other gas concentrations)
Marine Microbes – Chlorophyll, Primary Production, and Biogeochemistry (Phytoplankton
biomass, Phytoplankton photo-physiology, Chlorophyll concentrations, Calcite
concentration, Particulate organic carbon, Microbial ecosystem size structure and
functional types, Chl and other pigments, Algal groups)
Marine Biology and Related Activities (Fisheries catch, Fisheries distribution space,
Fishing vessel activity, Penguin abundance and foraging behavior, Elephant seal behavior,
Krill abundance)
Terrestrial Cryospheric Connections (Ice shelf locations, Ice shelf thickness, Land/ice
masks, Permafrost, Snow cover, Glaciers and ice cap locations, Glacier velocities, Ice
sheet locations, Grounding line location, Albedo, Terrestrial snow cover, Ice topography,
Ice velocity, Basal melt/freeze rates, Englacial temperatures, Bottom topography, Iceberg
detection and tracking, Antarctic bedrock)
Surface Winds (Near-surface wind speeds, Near-surface wind directions)
Coincident Data – In-situ Measurements (Subsurface temperature and salinity,
Barometric pressure, Air temperature, Sea surface pressure, Sea surface temperature,
Snow cover, Sea ice thickness, Pressure ridging, Sea ice draft data, Sea winds)
MISSION CONCEPTS FOR A POLAR OBSERVATION SYSTEM FINAL REPORT
This report provides details about an on-going study into mission concepts for geostationary-
like polar observation systems, including a needs analysis based on a literature review and a
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user survey. The following requirements for environmental information derived from
satellite observations are identified (Macdonald & Anderson, 2015):
Atmosphere (Atmospheric Wind Vectors, Cloud properties, Aerosol optical depth,
Aerosol class, Surface solar irradiance, Tropospheric humidity / water vapour, Downward
longwave radiation, Ocean surface vector winds, Precipitation)
Sea Ice (Area, extent and concentration, Thickness, Drift, Ice snow albedo, Ice type
classification, Ice roughness and deformation, Ice surface temperature, Icebergs)
Ocean State (Sea surface temperature)
Land Surface (Surface temperature, Active fire products)
INTERACT RESEARCH AND MONITORING
This report, published together with a searchable metadata database, helps scientists and
other stakeholders to find details on the different research and monitoring projects which
have taken place at the INTERACT stations that provided data for inclusion. The report
identifies the following environmental information parameters that are being collected at
the stations through those projects (INTERACT, 2014):
“Climate” parameters
Meteorology – atmosphere (Air temperature, Air humidity, Air pressure, Wind velocity,
Wind direction, Precipitation)
Radiation (Short wave incoming, Short wave outgoing, Long wave outgoing, Long wave
incoming, Net radiation, UV-B, Multi-spectral, Cloud cover/hours of sunshine)
Energy balance (Energy balance)
Precipitation (Rain precipitation, Rain intensity, Snow precipitation, Snow intensity)
Soil (Soil temperature, Soil humidity (TDR))
“Geo” parameters
Geology/geomorphology (Quaternary geology, Sedimentology, Bedrock geology, Erosion)
Geophysics and geodesy (Gravity, Magnetic field, Aurora, Seismic activity)
Sub-surface characteristics (Ground surface temperature, Ground/soil temperature, Soil
moisture content, Ground water table, Soil water chemistry, Active layer depth,
Permafrost distribution, Permafrost thickness, Permafrost temperature)
Snow characteristics (Snow depth, Snow cover, Snow density, Snow temperature)
Atmospheric composition (CO2 concentration, CH4 concentration)
Greenhouse gas exchange (CO2 exchange, CH4 exchange, N2O exchange)
Energy budget (Net radiation, Sensible heat flux, Latent heat flux, Soil heat flux)
Hydrology/Limnology (Precipitation, River water discharge/water level, Lake water level,
Water balance, Water temperature, Lake ice cover (formation/breakup/thickness),
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Suspended sediment discharge, Organic matter discharge, PAR (Photosyntetically Active
Radiation)/secchi depth, Water chemistry)
Pollution (In air, In water, In soil, In snow/ice, Other)
“Glacier” parameters
Glacier characteristics (Glacier area, Topography, Elevation change, Terminus position,
Ice velocity, Ice thickness, Debris cover, Surface albedo/reflexion coefficient)
Mass balance (Mass balance, Snow water equivalent, Snow cover stratigraphy,
Equilibrium Line Altitude, Duration of snow cover, Calving flux)
Climate (Climate measurements, Energy balance)
Glacier hydrology (Run-off, Supra-, en- and subglacial drainage system, Meltwater
retention, Glacial lake outburst floods)
Other (Biogeochemistry of snow, ice and water, Microbiology of snow, ice and water,
Particles and aerosols, Pollutants e.g. POPs and heavy metals, in snow, ice and water,
Isotope chemistry of snow, ice and water)
“Bio” parameters
Vegetation (Flowering phenology, Amount of flowering, NDVI (plot/transect), Landscape
NDVI (from satellite images), Vascular plant community composition, Bryophyte
community composition, Lichen community composition, Fungi community composition,
Berry production, Aerobiological monitoring (pollen, spores, etc.), Species list
(community composition))
Arthropods (Abundance, Emergence phenology, Insect herbivory, Species list (community
composition))
Birds (Abundance, Distribution, Phenology, Breeding birds, Nest initiation phenology,
Nest predation rates, Species list (community composition))
Mammals (Mammal abundance, Mammal distribution, Mammal reproduction, Mortality,
Predation, Physiology, Species list (community composition))
Lake ecology (Phytoplankton (chlorophyll), Zooplankton, Vegetation, Fish, Invertebrates,
Species list (community composition))
Microbiology (Interstitial fauna, Species list (community composition))
Genetics (Collection of animal tissue)
Pollution (Pollution measurements in vegetation, Pollution measurements in water,
Pollution measurements in mammals (body burdens, biomarkers), Pollution
measurements in birds (body burdens, biomarkers on both adults and offspring e.g. egg
shell thinning, macro plastic in nests/in body))
Diseases (Mammals, Birds, Fish, Vegetation, Other)
Parasites (Mammals, Birds, Fish, Vegetation, Other)
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Socio-ecological issues (disturbance) (Number of visitors, Surface activities (e.g. removal
of vegetation, organisms, soil samples, ATV traffic, manipulations), Aircraft activities,
Emissions/discharge energy consumption, spill water, waste, garbage, atmospheric
emissions, etc.))
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APPENDIX 4: PEST TRENDS
Political / Policy Trends
Though Arctic nations structure their priorities differently and adopt different tones in their
policies, most desire cooperation and uphold Arctic peoples’ rights to have a voice in Arctic
governance and protect indigenous culture, traditions and lifestyles. However, conflicting
policy objectives have sometimes resulted in economic development taking precedence over
Arctic peoples’ rights and interests (e.g. resource exploration in the Canadian Arctic (CBC,
2015a)), and in one case (Russia), Indigenous peoples’ rights are being impacted by
legislative measures (e.g. the Nenets indigenous peoples´ organization Yasavey Manzara
being declared “foreign agents” under Russian law (Pettersen, 2015)).
The economic potential of the region is a primary driver of many national policies.
Approximately 13 percent of the world’s undiscovered oil reserves and 30 percent of all
natural gas reserves are located in the Arctic region. With this quantity of undiscovered and
untapped resource potential in a region with no clear political boundaries, it is possible that
continental shelf claims hold the potential to compromise relations between Arctic States
(Kingdom of Denmark, 2011). The following sections provide a summary of the key
political/policy stances of national, regional and multinational governance bodies that
impact the polar regions.
Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands
The Danish government introduced its Arctic policy in 2008 (European Economic Area Joint
Parliamentary Committee, 2011). Denmark has begun to place a stronger emphasis on the
strategic importance of the region, with the recent creation of an Arctic Command in Nuuk,
Greenland, to handle surveillance and S&R off the coasts of Greenland. Adoption of a
strategy for the Arctic, in the view of the Kingdom of Denmark, is an opportunity to develop
the region in a way that benefits its inhabitants foremost. In addition to respecting the right
of indigenous peoples to be represented in the governance of the polar region, the
Greenland self-rule government has acquired full control of all resources in Greenland.
Denmark observes their right to limit its current cash support to the Greenland government,
in case of major revenues from future mineral exploration projects (Kingdom of Denmark,
2011).
In 2014 Denmark submitted all claims to the continental shelf on behalf of Greenland to
protect its interest in natural resources in the High North, following closely, but overlapping
with similar Canadian and Russian claims. Greenland’s claim to these resources is a crucial
prerequisite to its future financial and political independence from Denmark (European
Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011). The Faroe Islands also demonstrate
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an increasing interest in High North issues, predicated on the activity increased shipping
through the area would create.
Finland
The most recent Finnish strategy, adopted in 2013, reflects the nation’s growing perception
of itself as an Arctic country in possession of diversified Arctic expertise. It claims a
nationwide interest in the region for reasons of “economy, skills and competence, education
and training and research” (Government of Finland, 2013). Finland identifies itself as an
active actor in the Arctic Region, with the ability to “reconcile the limitations imposed with
the business opportunities provided” in a sustainable manner.
Mitigating the impact of climate change is vital for the stability and security of the Arctic.
While recognizing the economic growth provided by new transport routes, resource
availability, and increases in tourism, Finland sees these beneficial activities as needing the
proper perspective with respect to the catalyst for their growth – climate change. Finland
sees its role as that of a steward of sustainable development in the Arctic: “Actors planning
to launch operations in the area must have the capacity to evaluate and manage the risks
and potential outcomes of their activities” (Government of Finland, 2013). In particular, the
government sees opportunities emerging for expertise held in Finnish cleantech companies
through a need for decentralized energy production and infrastructure that places decreased
stress on the natural environment.
The foreseen growth of the mining industry, escalating tourism and the growing energy
industry have highlighted the need to develop transport and logistics capacity in the Arctic,
projects which Finland recognizes involve a cross-border dimension. These trends are further
reflected in the growing demand for Finnish designed and constructed ice-breakers
(Government of Finland, 2013). The nation views its involvement in existing projects to
develop Arctic sea areas as opportunities to be leading experts in Arctic maritime industry
and shipping. With respect to reserves of natural resources in the Arctic, it is the stance of
the Finnish government that “a large part” lies close to Finland between Norway and the
Yamal Peninsula – a belief that the nation hopes will lead to foreign investment
(Government of Finland, 2013).
In following with its focus on education and research, particularly in the study of climate
change, Finland also aims to upgrade satellite services on a public-private partnership basis.
Investments made in the Arctic Research Centre of the FMI enable a substantial expansion of
these types of operations. In showing support of the involvement of the European Union,
Finland is working for the establishment of an EU Arctic Information Centre (through
University of Lapland) (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011).
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Iceland
Iceland makes claims to both territory and rights to sea areas north of the Arctic Circle via
the delineation of the Icelandic Exclusive Economic Zone. Its focus is on safeguarding broadly
defined security interests in the Arctic region through civilian means, working against any
kind of militarisation. Still, the Icelandic government acknowledges that disputes arising from
continental shelf claims may compromise relations between the Arctic States. Iceland
reflects this in its desire to increase the Arctic Council’s weight and relevance in decisions on
the region, where necessary (Althingi of Iceland, 2011).
It is of concern to Iceland that five Arctic coastal states (i.e. the United States, Canada,
Russia, Norway, and Denmark) have attempted to establish a consultative forum for Arctic
issues without the participation of Finland, Iceland, Sweden, or indigenous peoples through
the signing of the Ilulissat Declaration in 2008 (Althingi of Iceland, 2011). This is seen as a
potential cause of weakness to the solidarity between the recognized eight Arctic States. It is
its position that further efforts that may undermine the Arctic Council and Iceland’s interests
in the region must be prevented. Perhaps as a reaction, Iceland is promoting itself abroad as
a venue for meetings, conferences and discussion on the Arctic region (European Economic
Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011). In addition, Iceland has aspirations to become a
transhipment hub for transcontinental shipping through the Arctic Ocean. A recent free
trade agreement between Iceland and China and firm bilateral cooperation on Arctic issues
under the Framework Agreement on Arctic Cooperation include shipping as a focal point
(Gudjonsson & Nielsson, 2015).
Icelanders, more than the people of other nations, rely on the fragile resources of the Arctic
Region, for example in the industries of fishing, tourism, and energy production. Recognizing
this, the Government of Iceland views it as vitally important to secure its position as a coastal
State and stands opposed to the five Ilulissat Declaration states in what it sees as an attempt
to assume decision-making power in the region. Iceland hopes to adopt a more collaborative
approach, setting up institutions, research centres and educational facilities in Iceland to
work with other States and organizations on Arctic issues.
Aiming to protect the economic resources of Icelanders, Iceland’s security interests place an
emphasis on the close surveillance of the increasing oil and gas transport through Icelandic
waters; these activities also impose further risk on the sea’s biosphere and spawning ground
in the area (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011). Through this
emphasis on economic relations, it hopes that the next generation of bilateral agreements
targets common pollution prevention to a greater extent, as increased traffic of cargo vessels
is inevitable. It also actively supports the idea of an Arctic Chamber of Commerce to promote
trade cooperation between businesses across the region (Althingi of Iceland, 2011).
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Norway
The government of Norway intends to strengthen its position as a responsible actor and a
steward of climate change monitoring. The Government of Norway is focused on five priority
areas: international cooperation, a knowledge-based business sector, knowledge
development, infrastructure, and emergency preparedness and environmental protection
(Government of Norway, 2014).
The importance placed on international cooperation might be best demonstrated by the
promotion of cross-border freedom of movement in the region, specifically where it
concerns local border traffic with Russia. Norwegian policy acknowledges that a number of
challenges in environmental and resource management can only be solved with Russia’s
engagement and Norwegian-Russian cooperation (Government of Norway, 2006). Yet, it has
also stated that in backing its international and national obligations the presence of the
armed forces, the police and the prosecuting authority continues to be of great importance.
A strong presence of these institutions is deemed vital for meeting national security needs
and maintaining Norwegian crisis management capacity in the High North.
North Norway is experiencing continued economic growth with increased activity in the
region. A policy priority for the nation is to be a leading source of knowledge development in
the fields of petroleum, maritime transport, utilisation and management of marine
resources, environmental protection, climate and polar research, and research on
indigenous peoples. The tourism industry in the area has become year-round, the fisheries
industry is stable, and the minerals industry continues to show greater potential. It stresses
that fisheries and maritime transport, oil and gas must find methods to coexist in an
environmentally sound way (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee,
2011).
The Snøhvit natural gas field development in 2007 has demonstrated how local spin-off
effects can be created by petroleum activities in North Norway. This is best exemplified
through the 1,200 petroleum jobs in Hammerfest directly linked to the field’s opening
(Government of Norway, 2014). Observing these effects, Norwegian authorities intend to
play an ongoing, active role in promoting local and regional spin-off effects of petroleum
developments.
Still further economic potential in the Polar Region is present through Norway’s connection
to Svalbard. Norway intends to maintain Svalbard as one of the world’s best-managed
wilderness areas. Part of this aim is to continue the strict environmental legislation and
comprehensive protection measures, further developing them to meet the challenges that
will arise from continued economic expansion. The fisheries protection zone and 200-mile
exclusive economic zone around Svalbard, in the opinion of Norway, gives them strong
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economic potential and the rights to oil and gas discovered here in the future (Government
of Norway, 2006). Interests with respect to these delineations are not recognized by most
other Arctic states with a stake in the area (particularly Russia) (European Economic Area
Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011).
Among Norway’s commitments towards developing the High North, a new grant scheme,
Arctic 2030, was established to support strategic projects in the five priority areas. The
government’s 2015 budget also included funding provisions specifically for mapping the
petroleum potential in the Barents Sea (Government of Norway, 2014). Many such efforts
are intended to enhance Norway’s ability to exercise sovereignty and promote sustainable
management of renewable and non-renewable resources.
Sweden
Sweden’s focus on the region has mainly been on the environment, the climate and ecology.
More recently, and particularly after the meeting of the five coastal arctic states, it has
become more aware of the region’s growing political importance. With other states, Sweden
stands opposed to the Ilulissat Declaration (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary
Committee, 2011). Its emphasis has been focused on the Baltic Sea area rather than the High
North, because of its geographical position.
Canada
Canada initiated the founding of the Arctic Council in 1996 when the region was less
important strategically to the country. It does, however, support a singular and divided
forum of the five coastal Arctic States, as demonstrated by its participation at Ilulissat in
2008 and hosting the March 2011 Chelsea, Quebec meeting.
Canada published its Arctic foreign policy in 2006, placing a very strong emphasis on its
sovereign claims over Arctic territory. Following this, Canada began strengthening its border
patrol in the Arctic region by increased military presence, in addition to commencing the
building of six icebreakers (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011).
It has objected to external sovereign claims, such as Russian activity near its borders and
planting a flag on the sea floor at the North Pole. Similarly, Canada has long-standing
disagreements with the United States over the North West Passage and the demarcation of
both countries’ jurisdiction in the Beaufort Sea and with Denmark over a maritime boundary
in the Lincoln Sea. The Canadian government believes the abovementioned disagreements
to be well-managed, in no way diminishing its ability to collaborate and cooperate with its
Arctic neighbours.
Canada reformed its Arctic policy with a Northern Strategy in 2009 and a new Arctic Foreign
Policy a year later. Under this strategy for the north, Canada identified four avenues through
which it would advance domestic and international interests: “exercising sovereignty,
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promoting economic and social development, protecting its environmental heritage, and
improving and devolving Northern governance” (Government of Canada, 2013). While a
focus on sovereignty is stressed in this document, the tone is softened significantly from its
predecessor.
The primary objectives under these four policy areas are (Government of Canada, 2013):
engaging with neighbours to seek resolution to boundary issues;
securing international recognition for the full extent of the Canadian extended
continental shelf;
addressing Arctic governance and related emerging issues, such as public safety;
creating the appropriate international conditions for sustainable development;
seeking trade and investment opportunities that benefit all Canadians, and particularly
Northerners;
encouraging a greater understanding of the human dimension of the Arctic;
promoting an ecosystem-based management approach with Arctic neighbours and
others;
contributing to and supporting international efforts to address climate change in the
Arctic, as well as enhancing its own efforts on pressing environmental issues;
strengthening Arctic science and the legacy of the International Polar Year;
engaging Northerners with respect to its Arctic policy;
supporting Indigenous Permanent Participant organizations; and
providing Canadian youth with opportunities to participate in the circumpolar dialogue.
Canada’s presence in the region has expanded since 2007, in order to “responsibly exercise”
sovereignty through commitments to monitor, protect and patrol its borders in the region.
Among these enhancements to its capacity in the North, Canada planned the launch of the
“largest and most powerful icebreaker ever in the Canadian Coast Guard fleet” by 2020
(Government of Canada, 2013). Investments have also been made in new patrol ships
capable of sustained operations in first-year ice and berthing and refueling facilities in
Nanisivik, Nunavut, both of which are aimed at closer monitoring of waters as maritime
activity continues to grow. Inclusion of the United States and Denmark in the 2010
occurrence of the annual Canadian Forces sovereignty exercise “Operation Nanook”
demonstrates further willingness to exercise Canadian sovereign claims while facilitating
international cooperation and collaboration.
Canada rejects the premise that the Arctic requires a new governance structure or legal
framework, confident in the existing extensive international legal framework that is in place.
As with other Arctic nations, Canada believes the United Nations Convention on the Law of
the Sea (UNCLOS) provides a fair and legal basis for the delineation of continental shelf
claims. A partial submission to the United Nations regarding its claim of delineation of its
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continental shelf was made in 2013. Scientific surveys have been conducted since 2006 to
collect data in support of its initial submission (Government of Canada, 2015).
In acknowledgement of the environmental and social impacts that economic development
can have, Canada has taken steps to ensure that any development in its Arctic North is
sustainable. At the time the Arctic policy was published, it was guaranteed that no drilling
would take place in Canada’s Beaufort Sea until at least 2014; any plans to begin activity in
the area have since been indefinitely postponed by Imperial Oil, BP, and Chevron Canada
(CBC News, 2015). Progress has also been made to establish protected areas in over 10
percent of the region, designating 80 such areas covering nearly 400,000 square kilometres.
This dedication to preserving the culture and ecosystem of the North is reinforced by an
ambitious program to expand its national park system with three new parks and 70,000
square kilometres of protected areas, on and around Baffin Island and the Arctic wilderness
of Labrador (Government of Canada, 2009). With the change in government in October
2015, there are early indications that policy changes related to the Arctic and to Indigenous
peoples will be forthcoming.
United States
Under George W. Bush, the United States’ position was to operate either independently or in
conjunction with other states to safeguard its fundamental national security interests in the
Arctic region with missile defense and early warning, deployment of sea and air systems for
strategic sealift, strategic deterrence, maritime presence, and maritime security operations.
This included its view on the Arctic as an area of vulnerability to the United States from
terrorist, criminal or hostile attacks. The United States saw the increase of human activity
and projection for further traffic in the near future as requiring an assertive and influential
national presence as a response – taking the opportunity to “project its sea power
throughout the region” (Bush, 2009). This stance stood out as far more aggressively
protective in comparison to fellow Arctic States.
Under the policy set at the time, establishing openness of navigational routes through the
region while simultaneously making clear territorial claims was the core of American
intention towards the Arctic region. Directives issued by the President were explicit that
freedom of the seas is a top national priority. To the U.S., preserving the rights and duties
relating to navigation and overflight of the Arctic extends to the Northwest Passage and the
Northern Sea Route – areas it believes are straits for international navigation (Bush, 2009).
Likewise, the unresolved boundary issue with Canada in the Beaufort Sea was identified
specifically, with the U.S. position based on equidistance states in no uncertain terms.
The Obama administration has maintained the same emphasis on UNCLOS, albeit with a
much softer tone than its predecessor (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary
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Committee, 2011). Yet because the US Senate has not ratified the government’s signing of
the Convention, although this is a goal of the Obama Administration’s Arctic policy, the
Americans cannot make a formal claim to resources in the Arctic (Alaska). In addition to
advancing U.S. security interests, the National Strategy for the Arctic Region also lists as a
line of effort to “strengthen international cooperation [by working through] bodies, including
the Arctic Council, to pursue arrangements that advance collective interests, promote shared
Arctic state prosperity, protect the Arctic environment, and enhance regional security”.
(Barack Obama, 2013).
Significant investments have been made by the U.S. in infrastructure needed to collect
environmental data from the entire Arctic Region. The U.S. has consistently stated a priority
to advance scientific understanding that could provide the basis for assessing future impacts
and proposed response strategies. Part of this plan for accurate prediction of future
environmental impacts includes the delivery of near real-time information to end-users.
(European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011). The US is chairing the
Arctic Council during 2015-2017 and two of its three focus areas relate directly to earth
observations:
Arctic Ocean Safety, Security and Stewardship
Addressing Impacts of Climate Change
Russia
Russia’s Arctic policies have been described as both “expansionist and aggressive” and
“innocent, inward-looking and defensive” (Heininen, Sergunin, & Yarovoy, Russian Strategies
in the Arctic: Avoiding a New Cold War, 2014). At the center of both points of view is
Moscow’s focus on legitimate national interests: competition for natural resources and
control of northern sea routes. While Russia takes a hard stance on both of these issues,
they have exhibited their intentions through a goal of international cooperation level with
that of other Arctic states. This dichotomy of impressions is perhaps best exemplified by
statements made by Prime Minister Putin in which he said, “Russia certainly will expand its
presence in the Arctic. We are open to dialogue … with all partners in the Arctic region, but,
of course, we will defend our own geopolitical interests firmly and consistently” (Rowe &
Blakkisrud, 2013).
In general, Russia opposes the participation of any states aside from those eight on the
Arctic Council in decision making with regards to the Arctic. It assumes the objective of
organizations like NATO and the EU is to seize the natural resources of the Arctic and be
involved in the region’s governance. While Moscow espouses a desire for international Arctic
cooperation, it is adamant that Arctic interests should be kept to the five coastal states
(Rowe & Blakkisrud, 2013) (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011).
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Internally, concessions to other international players have brought criticism on the
government.
Historically, Russia promoted an “extensive” approach to Arctic development – dispersing
population and economic growth across its vast northern coast (Conley, 2013). Twenty
percent of Russia’s utilization of natural resources already takes place in this region
(European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011). This Russian Arctic Zone
(RAZ), with a total regional population of approximately 8 million (2006) is home to 46 towns
with populations over 5,000 and four cities larger than 100,000. It is identified as the primary
interest of its Arctic policy due to the fact that, while rich in natural resources, it is severely
underdeveloped in terms of local economy, infrastructure, communication systems, and
social institutions. It is a vast region that accounts for only 1% of national population, yet
produces roughly one-tenth (Heininen, Sergunin, & Yarovoy, Russian Strategies in the Arctic:
Avoiding a New Cold War, 2014) to one-fifth (Rowe & Blakkisrud, 2013) of Russian GDP.
The RAZ also presents significant issues of environmental concern for the Russian
government. Roughly 15% of the territory is estimated to be polluted or contaminated with
tens of thousands of cubic meters of highly radioactive nuclear waste (Heininen, Sergunin, &
Yarovoy, Russian Strategies in the Arctic: Avoiding a New Cold War, 2014). Although
dumping practices were halted in 1991, the proliferation of nuclear installations in the region
over time has left a serious problem with nuclear waste. Russian and Western cooperation
(particularly from Norway) have focused efforts on waste treatment projects in the
Murmansk and Arkhangelsk regions (Heininen, Sergunin, & Yarovoy, Russian Strategies in the
Arctic: Avoiding a New Cold War, 2014).
Perhaps most clear through its emphasis on the RAZ, Russia’s approach to the Arctic remains
primarily insular rather than international. When it does look outside its own borders it most
often deals with territorial claims and security interests. For example, an international
dimension of Russia’s Strategy-2013 dealt with its intention to legally delimit Russia’s
continental shelf in the Arctic Ocean – a practice several other nations have also adopted
(Heininen, Sergunin, & Yarovoy, Russian Strategies in the Arctic: Avoiding a New Cold War,
2014). It has also engaged in a resolution with Norway to delimit contested waters in the
Barents Sea. Yet, in Russia’s view, the North East passage is a Russian inland sea, not
international waters, driving many of its actions in this area towards military security and
control of foreign military and commercial vessel traffic (European Economic Area Joint
Parliamentary Committee, 2011).
European Union
The Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) of the European Economic Area observes that a
modern-day polar race has slowly started that threatens seemingly high long-term stakes.
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The European Parliament voiced concerns in 2008 over the ongoing race for natural
resources in the Arctic, which it saw as possibly leading to security threats for the EU and
overall international instability. The JPC thus “underlines the importance of overall stability
and peace in the Arctic region,” calling for safeguarding all security interests by civilian
means and opposing any form of militarization of the Arctic (European Economic Area Joint
Parliamentary Committee, 2011).
The different industries impacted by opportunities in the region have prompted varying
responses to avert such outcomes. The Council of the European Union favours a temporary
ban on new fisheries in those waters not yet covered by an international conservation
system until a framework extending the mandate of relevant Regional Fisheries
Management Organisations is developed. Individual nations have competing interests and
have begun formulating policies that position them to have a right to future claims on
discovery of new hydrocarbon deposits, yet all seem to agree that any future exploitation of
Arctic resources should be provided in full respect of strict environmental standards.
The Council also requested the EU to promote cooperation activities with the US, Canada,
Norway, Iceland, Greenland, and Russia in the field of multidisciplinary Arctic research,
thereby establishing coordinated funding mechanisms.
As an input to EU policy development for the Arctic, under the leadership of the Arctic
Centre, University of Lapland a network of 19 leading Arctic research and communication
centres and universities with extensive activities in and knowledge of the Arctic carried out
an assessment on the impact of development in the Arctic (Arctic Centre, University of
Lapland, 2014). The assessment report contains 24 recommendations covering the following
seven themes focused on change for consideration in the development of a comprehensive
EU policy framework for the Arctic:
Climate change in the arctic;
Changes in arctic maritime transport;
Changing nature of arctic fisheries and aquaculture;
Developing oil and gas resources in arctic waters;
Mining in the european arctic;
Activities affecting land use in the european arctic; and
Social and cultural changes in the european arctic.
Non-Arctic States
Driven by a desire not to be left out on the potential of future economic opportunities, non-
Arctic States are looking for a means to gain a more important role in Arctic governance.
There are currently 12 non-Arctic countries, nine intergovernmental organizations and 11
non-governmental organizations that are Observers on the Arctic Council.
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For example, France recognizes that it is not geographically an Arctic State, yet its Senate
believes that it could lead the way for the European Union’s more heavy involvement thanks
to its “highly recognised scientific research” (Martin, 2014). With many French companies
already working in the Arctic, particularly with regard to precautions in resource extraction,
the government is building a case that they can strike a balance between economic and
environmental interests in the Arctic for the EU.
A number of Asian countries have growing interests in the Arctic and have Observer status
on the Arctic Council. As noted previously, China is developing strong trade relationships
with Iceland, and apart from Iceland’s strategic location, China’s interest was probably
motivated in part by its aspiration for an Observer seat in the Arctic Council (Ingimundarson,
2015). Japan, Singapore and South Korea all aim to participate in energy resource
development and climate change research in the Arctic, but their primary interest is the
increasing accessibility of northern waters to commercial shipping (Cima & Sticklor, 2014).
Although India has scientific, environmental, commercial and strategic interests in the Arctic
region, its activities to date have focused primarily on climate change research (Ministry of
External Affairs, 2013).
Antarctic Treaty System
The Antarctic Treaty entered into force in 1961, signed by 12 nations. Since then the number
of countries acceding to the treaty has grown, with the total number of Parties to the Treaty
now expanding to 52. Among signatories to the Treaty, seven (Argentina, Australia, Chile,
France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom) identify territorial claims, with the
United States and Russia holding a “basis of claim”. At the time the Treaty was entered,
positions of claim were locked in a status quo under Article IV. Under the Treaty, any
member of the United Nations is free to accede to it. On the thirtieth anniversary of the
Treaty, in the year it was set to be reviewed, all Parties adopted a declaration to record
“their determination to maintain and strengthen the Treaty and to protect Antarctica’s
environmental and scientific values” (Government of Australia, 2011).
The main goals of the Treaty are:
To ensure that Antarctica is used for peaceful purposes only (Article I);
To promote international scientific cooperation in the region (Articles II, III); and
To set aside disputes over territory and ensure that all facilities maintain a status of
openness (Articles IV, VII).
The result is a fully protected geographic region, covering all areas south of 60ᵒS latitude to
the South Pole, where the priority is scientific research (Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty,
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2011). Governance over the region is conducted annually by the 28 Consultative Nations6
through the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM), accompanied by a meeting of the
Committee for Environmental Protection (CEP). Various ATCMs have also been held to
address specific subjects impacting the Treaty Area through “Meetings of Experts”, such as
shipping (2000), tourism (2004), ship-borne tourism (2009), and climate change (2010)
(Secretariat of the Antarctic Treaty, 2015).
Rather than vote on issues, Parties to the Treaty attempt to reach a consensus. This has led
to a “Treaty System” comprised of all recommendations, measures, decisions and
resolutions made at ATCMs. In addition to those that have been the focus of Meetings of
Experts, matters have been addressed at ATCMs such as:
Protection of the Antarctic environment,
Conservation of plants and animals,
Preservation of historic sites,
Designation and management of specific protected areas,
Information exchange,
Collection of meteorological data,
Hydrographic charting, and
Communications and safety.
Where acceding nations believe a more legally-binding implementation is required, further
agreements can be developed that complement the Treaty itself. The Antarctic Treaty
System thus includes the Agreed Measures for the Conservation of Antarctic Fauna and Flora
1964, the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Seals, the Convention on the
Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources, and the Protocol on Environmental
Protection to the Antarctic Treaty (the Madrid Protocol) (Government of Australia, 2011).
While for much of the Treaty’s history it was not economically viable to recover natural
resources in Antarctica and under the surrounding seas, improving technology and the
Earth’s changing climate make accessibility an issue of consequence. In 1998 Parties to the
Treaty entered into the Madrid Protocol which, among other provisions, designated
Antarctica a natural reserve and prohibited all mining activities in the area until at least 2048
(Government of Australia, 2011).
6 United Kingdom, South Africa, Belgium, Japan, United States of America, Norway, France, New Zealand,
Russia, Poland, Argentina, Australia, Chile, Netherlands, Germany, Brazil, Bulgaria, Uruguay, Italy, Peru, Spain, China, India, Sweden, Finland, South Korea, Ecuador, and Ukraine
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Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants
The overall objective of the Stockholm Convention is to protect human health and the
environment from persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Administered by the United Nations
Environment Programme, it is legally binding and open to ratification. Adopted in text in
2001, it was entered into force on May 17, 2004; 176 countries have opted to be party to the
Convention. The United States, while it has signed the Convention, is the only Arctic State
that has not ratified.
Annexes of the Convention identify 26 POPs that are to be eliminated or restricted, or for
which the unintentional production is to be prevented. Another four materials have been
proposed for listing under the Convention. Signatories are also expected to reduce or
eliminate release of any listed materials from their stockpiles and other waste (Stockholm
Convention, 2001).
Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and Their Disposal
The objective of the Basal Convention is to protect human health and the environment
against the adverse effects resulting from the generation, management, transboundary
movement and disposal of hazardous and other wastes. All of the Arctic States are among
the 178 Parties that have ratified the Convention, save the United States (which has signed
the convention),. The text of the document was adopted on March 22, 1989 and it was
entered into force on May 22, 1992. The provisions of the Convention aim to (Basel
Convention, 2011):
reduce hazardous waste generation and promote environmentally sound management
and disposal of hazardous waste;
restrict transboundary movement of hazardous wastes except where it is perceived to be
in acceptance of environmentally sound management; and
provide a regulatory system applying to cases where transboundary movements are
permissible.
International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL)
The MARPOL Convention is the main international convention covering prevention of
pollution of the marine environment by ships from operational or accidental causes. All ships
flagged under countries that are signatories to MARPOL are subject to its requirements,
regardless of where they sail. The Convention includes regulations that aim to prevent and
minimize pollution from ships, currently delineated into six groups: oil, noxious liquid
substances, harmful substances carried in packaged form, sewage, garbage, and air
pollution. It was adopted in 1973, with a series of amendments since that time, and is
currently in force (International Maritime Organization, 2015).
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Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)
The CBD is an international treaty under the United Nations Environment Programme aiming
to sustain the rich diversity of life on Earth. Its main objective is to organize the development
of national strategies for the conservation and sustainable use of biological diversity. Often
seen as the primary treaty contributing to sustainable development, Parties are each
responsible for applying the CBD’s provisions within their own national jurisdictions. It
adopts a flexible approach to implementation, identifying general goals and policies. Its 193
ratified Parties are free to determine how best to implement them. Of the Arctic States the
United States, while a signatory, has not ratified the CBD. The text of the Convention was
adopted June 5, 1992 and entered into force December 29, 1993 (Convention on Biological
Diversity, 2015). The Convention is the first agreement to address all aspects of biological
diversity: species, ecosystems and genetic resources.
Since it was entered into force, the CBD has been supplemented by two additional
agreements:
The Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety (2000), governing the movements of living modified
organisms resulting from modern biotechnology from one country to another; and
The Nagoya Protocol on Access to Genetic Resources and the Fair and Equitable Sharing
of Benefits Arising from their Utilization (2014), which establishes more predictable
conditions for access to genetic resources and helps to ensure benefit-sharing when
genetic resources leave the contracting party providing the genetic resources.
Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the North-East Atlantic (OSPAR)
OSPAR is a legally-binding multilateral treaty between the coastal states of the North-East
Atlantic, the European Commission, Luxembourg and Switzerland. It was adopted in 1992
and entered into force on March 25, 1998. The Convention applies to the international
waters and territorial seas of each of the contracting parties, the sea beyond and adjacent to
the territorial sea under each coastal state’s jurisdiction, including the water bed and sub-
soil situated in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans, and the dependent seas which lie north of
36ᵒN latitude between 42ᵒW and 51ᵒE longitude – excluding the Baltic Sea, the Belts, and the
Mediterranean Sea. Overall, the Convention is a mechanism for cooperation, stressing
integrated management of human activities in the marine environment.
Parties to the Convention are to take all possible steps to prevent and eliminate pollution
and take the necessary measures to protect the maritime area against the adverse effects of
human activities, so as to safeguard human health and conserve marine ecosystems. Also,
when practicable, parties should restore marine areas that have been adversely affected.
Signatories are obliged to enact precautionary and polluter-pays measures, along with
programmes to use the most recent technological capabilities to prevent and eliminate
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pollution completely. This includes an emphasis on the development and use of clean
technology (OSPAR, 1992).
Helsinki Convention on the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea Area
The Helsinki Convention is a multilateral treaty between the states surrounding the Baltic
Sea, and extending to the broader European community. Text of the convention was
adopted in 1992 and it was entered into force on January 17, 2000. The Convention applies
to the whole Baltic Sea area and includes its waters, sea bed, and catchment areas (to
account for land-based pollution).
It aims to prevent and eliminate pollution in order to restore the ecology of the Baltic Sea
Area and preserve its future ecological balance. Parties to the Convention are expected to
follow the precautionary and polluter-pays principles. Signatories should also promote best
environmental practices and available technologies in their own activities. The Convention
also emphasises that actions taken in its implementation should not result in transboundary
pollution, affecting regions outside of its area of application (HELCOM, 1992).
United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples
The UN Declaration is a non-legally binding document that describes the individual and
collective rights of indigenous peoples around the world. It addresses issues of culture,
identity, language, health and education, and provides States and international organizations
with guidance on harmonious, cooperative relationships with indigenous peoples’ groups.
Through its application, States are expected to respect the special importance of the culture
and values of indigenous peoples, including those in the polar regions.
It was adopted in September 2007, with 143 UN States voting in favor. Four voted against,
which included Canada and the United States – both of which later revised their position and
endorsed the Declaration. Eleven nations abstained, including the Russian Federation
(United Nations, 2008).
Indigenous and Tribal Peoples Convention
Twenty-two nations have ratified this Convention of the International Labour Organization
since it came into effect in 1991. Of these, only two (Norway, in 1990, and Denmark, 1996)
are Arctic States. This Convention serves as a legally-binding international instrument dealing
with the protection of indigenous peoples’ rights and guaranteeing respect towards their
lifestyles. It provides a guideline by which indigenous and tribal peoples may overcome
discrimination, ensuring that they benefit from an equal footing in the national society
(International Labour Organization, n.d.).
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United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)
UNCLOS is the most comprehensive attempt at creating a unified regime for governance of
the rights and responsibilities of nations in their use of ocean space. It governs all aspects of
ocean space including: delimitation, environmental control, marine scientific research,
economic and commercial activities, technology transfer, piracy, and the settlement of
disputes. It applies the notion that all problems of ocean space are closely interrelated and
need to be addressed as a whole. Entered into force on November 16, 1994, all of the Arctic
States except for the United States have ratified UNCLOS (United Nations, 2013).
Agreement on Cooperation on Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue (SAR) in the Arctic
The SAR Agreement is a multilateral treaty negotiated under the Arctic Council during the
May 12, 2011 meeting in Greenland. It entered into force January 19, 2013. Its objective is to
strengthen the cooperation and coordination of aeronautical and maritime search and
rescue operations in the Arctic. Much of this coordination is accomplished by the delineation
of national areas of coverage for the 13 million square miles in the Arctic in the event of a
plane crash, cruise ship sinking, oil spill, or other disaster. Each Party to the Agreement
(Sweden, Finland, Norway, the Russian Federation, the United States, Canada, Denmark and
Iceland) has an area of the Arctic defined in which it takes the responsibility to lead the
organization of response for SAR incidents. It is the obligation of all signatories to provide
SAR assistance regardless of the nationality or status of those in need of assistance (Arctic
Council, 2011) (United States Government, 2013).
International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS)
SOLAS is the International Maritime Organization (IMO) safety treaty specifying the
minimum safety standards for the construction, equipage, and operation of ships. The SOLAS
Convention, adopted in 1974, requires flag States to ensure that their ships comply with
these standards. It includes articles setting out general obligations and an annex with
chapters specifying more narrow requirements. The fifth of these chapters is the only one
that applies to all vessels on the sea, including private yachts, small craft, and commercial
vessels on international passages. Many countries have turned these international
requirements into national laws (International Maritime Organization, 2013).
The IMO adopted the sections of the International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters
(Polar Code) enabled by SOLAS in 2014, and the sections enabled by the International
Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) in 2015. The sections of the
Polar Code related to the International Convention on Standards of Training, Certification
and Watchkeeping for Seafarers (STCW) have yet to be approved. The Polar Code addresses
those additional provisions deemed necessary for consideration beyond existing
requirements of the SOLAS Convention, in order to take into account the climatic conditions
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of Polar ice-covered waters and to meet appropriate standards of maritime safety and
pollution prevention (International Maritime Organization, 2014).
Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES)
CITES is an international agreement between governments. Its aim is to ensure that
international trade in specimens of wild animals and plants does not threaten their survival.
Because trade in wild animals and plants involves the crossing of international borders, the
effort to regulate these activities requires international cooperation. Today, the Convention
gives varying degrees of protection to more than 30,000 species of animals and plants,
whether they are traded as live specimens or products. All Arctic States have ratified CITES,
which entered into force on July 1, 1975 (CITES, 2015). Trade in polar bears is controversial,
with a recent proposal by the U.S. to ban trade rejected by the Parties to the Convention
(ITK, 2013).
Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS)
The CMS Convention aims to conserve terrestrial, aquatic and avian migratory species
throughout their geographic range. It is an intergovernmental treaty, coordinated through
UNEP, concerned with the conservation of wildlife and global habitats. It brings together the
States through which migratory routes exist and lays a legal foundation for conservation
measures. Of the Arctic States, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden are Parties (CMS,
1979).
Economic Trends
The Arctic Ocean’s inaccessibility has long meant that the region was largely insulated,
limiting much capability for navigation. However, the decreasing ice cover is already leading
to increases in shipping, tourism and broader economic development. While the full extent
of these changes will not be seen for some time, businesses and nations are already taking
advantage of greater ability for vessel access to the region.
In order to enhance progress in Arctic economic development, a heightened focus is being
placed on accompanying development of double-hulled shipping vessels, deep water ports,
improved navigation and satellite communication, icebreaker, search and rescue capabilities,
and aviation infrastructure. The continued economic development of the Arctic must be
counterbalanced with the risks posed to the increasingly at-risk ecosystem. Increased
onshore and offshore drilling enhances the risk of potential oil spills. The rapid expansion of
shipping and tourism has increased the quantity of pollutants released from large vessels as
well.
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Resource Development
The variation in approach, importance and tone in policy by the Arctic coastal states is
reflected in the very different models of economic development each has pursued. The
former Soviet Union, for example, promoted “extensive” Arctic development in which
territorial control was interwoven with development, leading to population dispersion across
vast territories. Conversely, Canada and the United States employed more intensive
economic development models. Their focus was on extractive industries with minimal
population and infrastructure requirements. For example, America’s Arctic economic
development was focused primarily on North Slope oil (Conley, 2013).
New oil production in the Arctic, particularly from offshore discoveries, could potentially
take decades to bring to market at great expense. Estimates for the economic potential of
hydrocarbon resources exceed $1 trillion in the U.S. Arctic and $1.7 trillion in the Russian
Arctic. The exploitation of mineral resources, particularly rare earth (‘strategic’) minerals
(iron ore, nickel, and palladium) may be a more important economic driver in the near term
(Conley, 2013). While recent changes in GDP growth (particularly in China) have dampened
demand for minerals, there are signs that the industry expects longer term growth prospects
to be strong (MAC, 2014). In particular, China and India are expected to continue to have an
appetite for minerals and metals that will only increase, especially because their per capita
usage of many metal-intensive products is still relatively low. Another source of growth in
demand is for uranium for nuclear power generation; for example, the International Energy
Agency has projected growth in nuclear power generation of between 57 per cent and 161
per cent from 2012 to 2040 and the US Energy Information Administration has stated that it
expects nuclear power generation to more than double between 2010 and 2040 – from over
2.5 trillion kilowatt hours to almost 5.5 trillion kilowatt hours (Zavattiero, 2015).
Reflective of its economic position and dependence on future discoveries, as well as its
peacekeeping approach to the region, Iceland’s national Arctic policy stresses that all figures
portraying unexploited resources “should be taken with caution as they are based on
probability” (Althingi of Iceland, 2011). This demonstrates that even in passive ways, Arctic
States are aware of and angling for a future share of the potential long-term economic gains
represented by the region.
The past decade has seen some historically high prices for iron, copper, gold, coal, rare
earths, uranium and other metals and minerals, all available above the Arctic Circle. While
harsh regulations and rules are imposed before drilling for oil by some Arctic countries,
mineral extraction industries are faring far better. Estimated investments in excess of $100
billion could be attracted to access mineral reserves in the Arctic over the next decade
(Jamasmie, 2013). Established and prospective mines have implications on the environment,
local populations, and the usefulness of the area for other, more sustainable projects (e.g.
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fishing grounds). The following paragraphs provide an overview of mineral extraction
activities in the polar regions.
Russia
In the early 2000s, Arctic Russia possessed the greatest extractive yield of raw materials and
precious minerals; Norilsk is home to the world’s largest nickel mine and produces nearly
half of the world’s palladium (Lindholt, 2002). Russia long ago established itself as the
world’s largest Arctic mining nation through the strategy of placing mining centres
throughout its RAZ. Today, it also produces large volumes of copper, tin and uranium among
many other minerals.
United States
The largest lead and zinc mine in the Arctic is Red Dog in Alaska. On the state’s southern
coast, plans for Pebble Mine suggest it would be the largest source of gold and copper in
North America. Construction of this enormous complex is controversial due to its potential
impact on Alaskan fishing grounds and salmon rivers (Loe, Fjaertoft, Swanson, & Jakobsen,
2014).
Canada
Canada is one of the leading exporters of “conflict-free” gem-quality diamonds (Loe,
Fjaertoft, Swanson, & Jakobsen, 2014). Canada also expects some of the highest growth from
its deposits of iron ore on Baffin Island from 2015 through the short term. Planned copper
and zinc projects in the Izok Lake corridor are also expected to be operational in Nunavut by
2018 (Jamasmie, 2013).
Greenland
Greenland has very limited mining activities currently. Although large deposits of iron, gold,
uranium and rare earth minerals exist, none are currently being mined, in spite of strong
government support, mainly due to the high costs of operations, fundamental lack of
infrastructure, and for a few prospects, perennial sea ice cover. Greenland expects higher
rare earth mineral production from its Kvanefjeld deposit in a few years and the government
currently in power have recently changed a former ban of uranium mining (unavoidable with
mining the rare earth mineral deposits). Expected to last twenty years, the site’s yield could
boost Greenland’s GDP by 20 percent (Loe, Fjaertoft, Swanson, & Jakobsen, 2014).
Finland
Finland’s interest in mining has spiked over the last decade. At present, one-eighth of the
geographical extent of the country has been reserved for future mining activities. This
dramatic rise is alarming to groups with environmental concerns, especially after a leak at
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the Sotkamo nickel mine caused serious heavy metal levels in local water supplies (YLE News,
2012).
Sweden
According to proposals in their Mineral Strategy, the Swedish government hopes to see the
number of active mines in the country double to the low-30s by 2020. Many of these new
sites would be located in the northernmost Swedish provinces. Activity at the world’s largest
iron mine, one of Sweden’s existing fifteen sites, has prompted the residents of the town of
Kiruna to move 3 kilometres east to avoid “falling in” (Wainwright, 2014).
Norway
Northern Norway is home to in excess of 40 operational mines, and the expectation is for
that number to nearly double within the short term. The effects of mining are particularly
controversial in Norway, as the country currently allows tailings to be dumped under water,
typically in deep fjords (Loe, Fjaertoft, Swanson, & Jakobsen, 2014). The most recent mine
opening in Norway was the Spitsbergen coal mine in the Svalbard archipelago.
Iceland
Iceland has established itself as one of the world’s top aluminum producers. It also has
experienced strong internal environmental opposition to establishing new projects. Such a
national attitude toward mineral extraction has made the establishment of new sites slower
and much more difficult. Still, Alcoa opened a large-scale aluminum smelter in Fjarðaál in the
early 2000s and a once-cancelled silicon plant in the Bakki-Húsavík area is scheduled to begin
operations in 2017 (Loe, Fjaertoft, Swanson, & Jakobsen, 2014) (Iceland Monitor, 2015).
Antarctica
Antarctica is also known to have significant mineral deposits. Extraction is difficult to
impossible, with the vast covering of moving ice streams, glaciers and snow that blankets the
land mass. However, under the terms of the Antarctic Treaty, there has never been
commercial mining and any mining is currently banned (British Antarctic Survey, 2015)
(Ward, 2015). There are no known plans by parties to the Treaty to reverse this mining ban
on the Antarctic region.
Transportation and Shipping
Rising fuel costs and the increased demand for valuable commodities have increased the
desire for shorter sea routes. Ships sailing between East Asia and Western Europe could save
more than 40 percent in transportation time and fuel costs by navigating the northern sea
lanes rather than the southern route through the Suez Canal. Safety is crucial especially in
these regions, where conditions are harsh and the reliability on support infrastructure is low,
increasing the importance of avoiding spills and accidents. Shipping and other marine
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transport brings environmental impacts like disruptive noise, potential collisions and risks
from oil spills, increasing discharge of other related pollutants and particulate matter, and
the potential introduction of invasive species carried by ballast water.
Established under the 1991 Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy, Protection of the
Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) was later continued as a Working Group under the Arctic
Council Charter. In 2004, PAME was requested to conduct an assessment of marine shipping
in the Arctic under the guidance of Canada, Finland, and the United States (PAME, 2015). Its
main objective was to evaluate the current status of marine traffic in the Arctic with respect
to the goals set in the 2004 Arctic Marine Strategic Plan (AMSP).
The 2009 Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA) was the first comprehensive review of
circumpolar shipping activities. The Assessment notes that while traffic has increased
significantly, with increasing voyages to the Arctic and between Arctic destinations, various
waterways are not predicted to become viable, long-scale transit routes in the near term.
Mobile and unpredictable ice in many of these routes – including Canada’s “Northwest
Passage” – poses significant navigational challenges. With this in mind, the AMSA also set
guidelines on enhancing Arctic marine safety, protecting the environment and peoples of the
Arctic, and building an Arctic marine infrastructure.
Many of PAME’s activities aim to address policy and non-emergency pollution prevention
and control in keeping with the 2004 AMSP. A framework for this work is presented
biannually as the PAME Work Plan. It provides an outline of projects and activities being
undertaken to directly address issues identified in annual updates to the AMSA. After the
last Work Plan lapsed, PAME recognized that the speed and diversity of ways the Arctic is
changing has evolved since the 2004 Plan.
The next iteration of the AMSP, covering 2015 to 2025, was developed to address this new
attitude on the changing environment. It was accepted by the Arctic Council during the April
2015 meeting in Iqaluit, Nunavut. While the current Plan carries forward the previous goals
of conservation, sustainable resource use and the prosperity of Arctic inhabitants, it also
places an emphasis on increasing understanding of the impacts of human activities, climate
change and ocean acidification (PAME, 2015).
Other organizations have contributed efforts to establish best practices and regulations for
Arctic shipping as well (Parsons, 2012) (IMO, 2015b). In 2012, the World Wildlife Foundation
(WWF) and FedNav Canada collaborated on recommendations for safe and sustainable
Arctic shipping, covering a range of topics, including voyage planning to avoid sensitive
wildlife habitat and requiring slower vessel speeds to reduce emissions in the region. The
Polar Code, which will be entered into force at the beginning of 2017, is accompanied by
related amendments to the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS)
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and the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) that
make it mandatory under both.
Among the regulations the Polar Code establishes are aspects of safety protecting vessel
passengers, strict guidelines for the materials and manufacture of vessels permitted to
operate in lower temperatures, and mandatory training and navigational data receiving
practices (IMO, 2015). In the context of regulations set by the IMO, a number of Arctic States
have accepted responsibility for providing navigational warning and meteorological services
to facilitate the safe management of Arctic marine traffic.
Improvement of the North’s overall transport efficiency is important for the long-term
development and viability of the region. More time- and cost-efficient intercontinental
shipping is a key economic driver for Arctic development. Global recognition – particularly by
non-Arctic States such as China and India – of the Northern Sea Route and Northwest
Passage as new alternative trade routes has spurred significant infrastructure investment.
While there are challenges in establishing an efficient multi-modal transport system in the
High North that will improve connections throughout the region, many nations’ policies
place a priority on maritime transportation. Still, many recognize the need for safety
improvements and modernization of roads and railways in the Arctic region as well.
Implementation of the United States’ Arctic policy places an emphasis on the “preparation
for increased activity in the Maritime Domain” by guiding its activities towards maintenance
and improvement of ports and other infrastructure (United States Government, 2014).
Iceland’s and Russia’s policies place an emphasis on the management of existing routes, with
both mentioning a need to develop cross-polar aviation capabilities (Althingi of Iceland,
2011) (Heininen, Sergunin, & Yarovoy, Russian Strategies in the Arctic: Avoiding a New Cold
War, 2014). The Arctic strategy document for Sweden puts most attention on the state of
regulations regarding maritime safety and restrictions on the transport of oil and other
materials that present an ecological risk (Government Offices of Sweden, 2011). Norwegian
policy similarly frames its transport requirements around the energy industry, but also
identifies improvements that need to be made to its transportation infrastructure –
committing to plans to establish transportation connections with its Barents region
neighbours before 2020 (Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2009).
The Canadian government, through the Office of the Auditor General, has taken action on its
Arctic strategy by assessing government agencies’ ability to adequately support safe marine
navigation in Canadian Arctic waters. Among the findings of the audit were that Arctic
waters were insufficiently surveyed and charted, little progress on mandated reviews of
navigational aids had been made, and present icebreaker presence had been decreasing. It
does note, however, that availability of weather and ice information has been improving
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even in the face of new challenges presented by the changing environment (Office of the
Auditor General of Canada, 2014).
Fisheries
Until recently, environmental conditions prevented commercial fishing activity in the Arctic
Ocean. In 2012, a group of more than 2,000 researchers from 67 countries noted that the
loss of permanent sea ice had opened up as much as 40 percent of this area during the
summer months, making industrial fishing activities viable for the first time (Canadian Press,
2012). With fish stocks and distribution of marine species dependent on the right water
temperatures, suitable seafloor topography, availability of food and proximate spawning
grounds, the effects of increased industrial activity and sea traffic (such as the currently
emphasized ocean acidification) on the ecosystem could be devastating if sustainable
practices are not first established. The researchers signed an open letter calling for a
moratorium on Arctic commercial fishing until extensive research could be completed on
these newly accessible waters. Ongoing meetings of scientific experts on fish stocks in the
central Arctic Ocean identify Arctic research and monitoring activities and continue the
process of producing the scientific information necessary to support the development of an
international agreement on fishing in the Arctic in areas outside the territorial waters of the
five Arctic coastal states (NOAA 2015).
A moratorium was agreed to by the Arctic coastal states in 2014 but never signed. Its
endorsement was finally achieved from all five coastal nations in a July 2015 meeting in Oslo,
Norway (Arctic Five, 2015). The agreement prevents all five signatories from taking part in
commercial fishing in waters beyond the northern limit of their individual 200-mile exclusive
economic zones until a full scientific assessment of fish stocks and how to manage
sustainable harvesting is undertaken. This would halt their own activities yet would not
prevent boats from China, Japan, South Korea and the other nations of the European Union
from entering the region (Galloway, 2015). Similar to its reaction to the Ilulissat Declaration,
Iceland expressed concerns over its – and other nations’ – exclusion from the agreement
(Quinn, 2015). The parties to the Oslo agreement hope that the moratorium will serve as a
template for a similar binding international agreement.
Fishing in the waters around the central Arctic is regulated through the identification of
exclusive economic zones by UNCLOS and a system of treaties and agreements established
under the Constitution of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Both
UNCLOS (1982) and the UN Fish Stocks Convention (1995) require nations to cooperate on
resource management beyond their legal zones.
Fishing in the Southern Ocean is regulated by the Convention on the Conservation of
Antarctic Marine Living Resources, which was adopted in 1980 (CCAMLR, 2014). It was a
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multilateral response to growing concerns about the impact of unregulated increases in krill
catches in the Southern Ocean on Antarctic marine ecosystems. The Commission for the
Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) establishes the regulatory
framework applied to the management of each fishery in the Convention Area.
In both the polar regions (and elsewhere in the world), illegal, unreported and unregulated
(IUU) fishing is a growing concern. The level of IUU fishing has reached major proportions for
some species and the Global Ocean Commission believes that it may account for as much as
one-fifth of the global catch, at an estimated value of $10-23.5bn per year (Global Ocean
Commission, 2015). IUU fishing is monitored by agencies such as CCAMLR and the European
Fisheries Control Agency (EFCA), and industry associations like the Coalition of Legal
Toothfish Operators (COLTO) play a proactive role in helping to identify illegal fishing activity.
Polar Tourism
Little has been done to provide perspective on the market demand and capacity for polar
cruising and what this means in the context of economic (and environmental) sustainability.
An unfettered increase in the number of cruises and passengers visiting the polar regions will
have an increasingly negative impact on these fragile environments. To date, existing
regulation, monitoring and management of cruise volumes is inadequate and unsustainable
– providing little control over the rapidity of these impacts. More effort is broadly needed to
provide enforceable regulations on planning and practices in polar tour operations
(Kobayashi, 2012).
Advanced ship technologies together with improved marine charts and navigational aids
have allowed cruise ship travel to increase exponentially. These changes not only added
numbers of tourists, but also expanded the seasonal and geographical reach of polar
tourism. The most recent developments have liners capable of carrying anywhere between
800 and 3,700 passengers, including crew. In addition to this, year-round polar tourism has
become a reality (GRID-Arendal, 2008). Tourism activities in the polar regions have expanded
tremendously, with ship-borne tourists increasing by 430 percent between 1993 and 2007
and land-based tourists by 757 percent from 1997 to 2007.
These trends have both negative and positive impacts on these regions. In the Arctic, the
more predictable tourism schedules offer more stability to local economies as opposed to
exhausting natural resources in response to fluctuating traffic. It also creates a steadier
market for art, native-manufactured goods, and services. In many cases, this includes the
more continual employ of local guides, pilots, charter boat crews, outfitters and suppliers.
However, many of the transport, tour and hotel corporations conducting tourism are
headquartered outside of these regions. Much of the capital paid by polar tourists to these
non-resident corporations consequently escapes the Arctic peoples.
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The Antarctic Treaty adopted the following recommendations to Parties of the Treaty in
response to these increasing numbers (GRID-Arendal, 2008):
Discourage or decline authorization for landings in Antarctica to vessels carrying more
than 500 people.
Coordinate not to allow more than one tourist vessel at any one site simultaneously.
Restrict the number of passengers ashore to less than 100 at any one time.
Social / Cultural Trends
While creating global economic benefits and new opportunities, the effects of environmental
change in the polar regions contribute to issues regarding access to food and resources, the
health and well-being of local populations, and cohesion of communities.
Rights of Indigenous Peoples
Arctic States manage the rights of indigenous peoples in varying ways. Partial sovereignty is
granted by Denmark to the Inuit-majority Greenland as a semi-autonomous country within
the Kingdom of Denmark, with its own self-rule government, with the possibility of declaring
full independence at any time. This method is also partially observed by Canada, with “First
Nations” granted rights in Haida Gwaii and the Inuit-majority territory of Nunavut, and by
the United States, with the tribal reservations in Alaska. The situation in Russia is far
different, with members of “linguistic minorities” (such as the Nenets, Khanty, and Chuchki)
grouped together without any special privileges. The exception to indigenous minority rights
among the Arctic States is Iceland, which has no indigenous population (Nelson, 2013).
Russia’s 2009 document Concept for the Sustainable Development of Small Indigenous
Population Groups of the North, Siberia and the Far East of the Russian Federation identifies
the serious social and economic problems facing these groups. Among these are the drastic
disparity of unemployment levels and life expectancy between indigenous peoples and other
residents of the RAZ. The same document states that the government’s goal is to foster
favorable conditions and raise the quality of life for these ethnic groups within Russia. Yet, to
date, implementation of this policy has fallen far short of its goals and brought censure by
Russia’s main indigenous organization, the Russian Association of Indigenous People of the
North, Siberia and the Far East (RAIPON). The Russian Ministry of Justice responded to
RAIPON’s calls for support from the UN and Arctic Council by suspending the group’s legal
registration and forcing a full reorganization of RAIPON leadership (Heininen, Sergunin, &
Yarovoy, Russian Strategies in the Arctic: Avoiding a New Cold War, 2014).
The nomadic Sami people are a special case in terms of response from governments, as their
migrations span four nations. Their rights range from full recognition (Sweden and Norway),
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to acknowledgement as a minority without special rights (Finland), to no special status and
an identification as a “small minority people” (Russia) (Nelson, 2013).
Impacts of Climate Change on Indigenous Peoples
The lives of indigenous peoples are affected greatly by environmental changes, including
climate change, food availability, food accessibility, personal safety and health. Thawing of
permafrost and erosion of sea ice threaten the infrastructure and location of many
indigenous groups; for example, 80 percent of Alaskan communities are at direct risk of
coastal erosion (Park, 2008). The most drastic example of this may be the Alaskan village of
Kivalina, where relocation made necessary by coastal erosion is expected to cost an
estimated $100 million USD (Stepien, 2014). The effects of these changes on the physical
environment have been linked by some researchers to individual health issues (International
Arctic Science Committee, 2010).
The ice is viewed as part of the home environment and a familiar space in areas where locals
regularly venture on it. In fact, regional icescapes are deeply ingrained with the people of
traditional Arctic communities. They pass age-old knowledge of the sea ice to new
generations through stories, careful training, and years of shared experiences – some
through elaborate vocabularies intended for the description of types of ice (Krupnik, 2014).
To these inhabitants of the north, the annual melting and refreezing of sea ice is an
established and necessary part of their seasonal cycle. The retreat of sea ice threatens the
livelihoods of communities built on subsistence resources. Such communities rely on the ice
for indispensable transportation and their traditional knowledge of Arctic species
distribution; hunters can no longer trust their experience in the face of drastically changing
conditions. As the cycle is altered, the daily lives and culture of people living on the ice will
need to change with it.
In some areas, changes to snow cover and thawing permafrost are of greater consequence
than receding sea ice. Reindeer herding, a traditional livelihood iconic in much of Arctic
Eurasia, faces challenges presented by diminishing availability of food for reindeer. The thaw
also has grave implications for water supplies, oil and gas pipelines, local roads, and human
health.
Issues of Health in the Arctic
The rapid and long-term cultural change which can result from the loss of traditional
activities and sources of livelihood like reindeer herding are attributed by some researchers
as possible sources of “psychological distress and mental health challenges” (International
Arctic Science Committee, 2010). These studies remain unclear on any connection between
social environments and individual health, yet they indicate some relation between social
positions and self-rated perception of health. Some studies suggest that the rapid changes in
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subsistence resources and availability of connected employment may be contributing to
mental health issues, suicide rates, and occurrence of violence (International Arctic Science
Committee, 2010). Ongoing and rapid change leading to social, economic, and cultural
transition are evident in community health, and likely to be accentuated as environmental
change continues in the future.
Higher temperatures improve the potential for new invasive species and vector-borne
diseases to survive in the polar regions for the first time (Stepien, 2014). A population that
once relied exclusively on gathering and hunting for subsistence now must worry about the
quality of meat and fish available, as well as fearing new parasites that were not previously
threats. Traditional cooking methods in the Arctic regions of Canada and the United States
do not kill certain parasites, which may increase their ability to cross to other animal hosts
and insect vectors, leading to new outbreaks (Nelson, 2013).
The enormous distances between populated areas also create health care delivery and
continuity and education/training challenges. In some regions, such as the Scandinavian-
Russian region across which the Sami traverse, cross-border cooperation to provide health
care is a necessary yet complicated situation. Furthermore, providing health care workers
sufficient for such widely distributed rural villages has encouraged other potential solutions
such as telenursing (delivering diagnoses and care via video conferencing), and distance
education and community-based vocational training initiatives are also on the rise (Nelson,
2013).
Participation of Indigenous Peoples
While increasing attention has been brought to issues related to climate change, the lack of
involvement from indigenous peoples results in overemphasis on some issues. For example,
policies for the protection of polar bears strikes an iconic image of preserving the Arctic,
while the traditional and cultural practice of hunting polar bears for subsistence among
indigenous communities has garnered little attention (Park, 2008). Indigenous leaders stress
the unfairness of such policies, since the peoples who contribute least to global climate
change are most affected by the impacts.
Among Arctic states demand for the involvement of indigenous peoples in the decision-
making process in the region has grown. Sentiment from within even the five coastal Arctic
states has swung to the position that the population of the High North must represent
themselves when it comes to dealing with matters affecting their communities. Figures from
2011 show that ten million people reside in the High North, including nearly 400 thousand
indigenous people (European Economic Area Joint Parliamentary Committee, 2011). This
number is disputed by the six indigenous organizations that participate on the Arctic Council,
who claim that the number of indigenous people is nearly four times higher.
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Participation of Arctic indigenous peoples in recent years has been strengthened, particularly
in discussions of climate change, by the actions of the leaders of their organizations. The
Inuit Circumpolar Conference submitted a petition in 2005 to the Inter-American
Commission of Human Rights claiming that the United States had violated its peoples’
human rights by neglecting to take action aimed at decreasing CO2 emissions. Similarly, the
Arctic Athabascan Council accused Canada of violating Athabascan rights due to production
of black carbon and other pollutants contributing to air pollution (Stepien, 2014). Canada, in
particular, created a plan in 2007 to promote heightened sustainable development meeting
the needs of Inuit in Quebec. Parliament also earmarked federal funding in the past to assist
indigenous groups to better participate and seek to be engaged in the international dialogue
(Park, 2008) and a commitment to continue to support Indigenous Permanent Participant
organizations in Canada, to strengthen their capacity to fully participate in the activities of
the Arctic Council is articulated in Canada’s Arctic Foreign Policy (Government of Canada,
2013).
Organizations representing the interests of indigenous peoples emphasize the resilience and
adaptability of their communities, stressing that they should not be viewed as defenseless
victims “on the verge of extinction”. New economic opportunities made available through
environmental change are embraced by Arctic states and corporations, although they do
introduce heightened pressures on traditional livelihoods. However, where indigenous
communities control their own lands, assumptions should not be made. Some communities
may be in favor of industrial development, seeing them as a way to address social, economic
and environmental change (Stepien, 2014).
Technological Trends
Several technological developments hold the promise of important and largely positive
changes for the Arctic and its people.
Telecommunications
Improved telecommunications capabilities in the polar regions have been recognized
globally as crucial to security, search and rescue capabilities, economic viability and social
improvement. Historically, communications satellites have flown in equatorial geostationary
orbits (GEO), positioning them far below the latitudinal limits of terminals in the Arctic. Lack
of signal strength and duration of service has led many to seek new solutions to the
telecommunications gap.
Space-based options for continual Arctic coverage include three satellites in 90-degree
inclined geosynchronous orbits; four satellites in medium-altitude elliptical orbits; three
satellites in “tundra” elliptical 63.4-degrees inclined geosynchronous orbits; or two satellites
in highly elliptical molniya orbits. The most efficient constellation for dedicated Arctic
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communications is the molniya configuration. However, because it is too costly to maintain a
spare satellite in each orbital plane – doubling the cost of such a project – a satellite failure
would result in a periodic gap in coverage that could take many months to remedy.
Nevertheless, the potential for deployment of a molniya constellation has been explored by
commercial businesses, and the space administrations of the United States, Canada, Russia,
and Norway. Initial estimates (circa 2011) suggested that polar-focused satellite
communications platforms (Arktika, PCW) would be available in 2017 (Smith, Wickman, &
Min, 2013).
Arctic Fibre Broadband Cable
Arctic Fibre, a Toronto-based firm, has launched a project to place a 15,600 kilometre
undersea fibre optic cable between Japan and the United Kingdom, through the Northwest
Passage (Arctic Fibre, 2013). Even though the main point of the project is to provide 24
terabit per second speed between two of the world’s busiest financial hubs, it would bring
quality telecommunications service to much of the north. In northern Canada, Internet
connections are currently provided by Anik F2, a Telesat Canada telecommunications
satellite. While households in Northern Canada are reportedly provided the Industry Canada-
minimum 5 megabits per second (Mbps) service, the reality is long delays and poor reliability
due to poor signal strength. Connection speeds in rural Alaska rarely top 3 Mbps (Nordrum,
2014).
The Arctic Fibre project would pass through seven Alaskan communities and more than 25
centres across Northern Canada. These connections would bring 57,000 Canadians and
26,500 Alaskans broadband access for the first time (Nordrum, 2014). Installing extra
branches to the main cable could connect as much as 98 percent of the population in
Nunavut and Nunavik. With the connections in place, Artic Fibre predicts service prices in
these remote communities could be cut by as much as 75 percent, with six to seven times as
much bandwidth as delivered under the current price (Nordrum, 2014).
Originally scheduled to have the cable in place by summer 2015, the company met difficulty
obtaining its full funding. The total cost has been estimated at US $850 million, a number
which Arctic Fibre officials once claimed would need government support to be economically
viable. Its initial attempts at lobbying the Canadian government were met with reluctance to
“back one private player, not others” (Press, 2014). This position suggests a lack of urgency,
even as the government itself projects its Northern bandwidth needs to increase by as much
as twelve-fold in the next decade.
Unable to secure orders from the Canadian government, the firm obtained support from
New York private equity firms (Byrne, 2014). The project was adjusted to begin in December
2015, with an estimated service start-up by the end of 2016. As the Arctic route for the cable
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is only ‘ice-free’ three months a year, this allows a very short window of time for installation
(and maintenance) of the cable sections (Byrne, 2014). All timelines for the project are
dependent on the ability of ships to enter and transit the Northwest Passage.
Fiber high speed internet/telephone cables are also connecting the Greenland capital Nuuk
to Iceland and Canada, and currently the fiber network is being extended to cover the larger
Western Greenland towns, vastly increasing the communication speeds on the present
backbone microwave chain along the Western Coast.
A high speed fiber link is also available in Svalbard, which was established in connection with
space downlink stations that service both ESA and NASA satellite missions.
Mobile User Objective System (MUOS) – Lockheed Martin Space Systems
Lockheed Martin announced in February 2015 that it was looking for international
partnerships to fund the construction of a sixth next-generation Ultra-High Frequency (UHF)
satellite. The aerospace company’s system, known as Mobile User Objective System (MUOS),
consists of four satellites in geosynchronous Earth orbit. According to Lockheed Martin, its
wideband payload, delivering secure voice and data transmissions similar to commercial
smartphone technology, provides a 16-times increase in transmission throughput over
legacy systems. Also unlike prior military systems, MUOS allows routing to and from any
radio terminal in the system regardless of which satellites are in view (Eggert, 2014).
Capability tests performed in 2013 demonstrated limited high arctic communications, with
voice and data signals reaching within 30 miles and 0.5 degrees latitude from the North Pole
(Cheng, 2014). Given its slightly inclined orbit, MUOS extends the temporal access of arctic
communications by about 4 hours over traditional geosynchronous communications
satellites. The new system could allow military users to traverse the globe using one radio,
without needing to switch devices because of different coverage areas (Lockheed Martin,
2014). Reports suggest the cost of a MUOS satellite to be approximately $311M USD,
excluding launch.
Polar Communications and Weather (PCW) Satellite - Canada
The Polar Communications and Weather (PCW) Satellite project aims to provide a solution to
the Canadian Armed Forces’ UHF SATCOM requirements and the gap in Wideband SATCOM
for the Canadian Arctic. A study was launched in 2008 by the Canadian Space Agency to
determine whether the proposed constellation of two satellites could provide similar
communications and weather imaging services to those available at lower latitudes. The
proposed mission has three main objectives (Canadian Space Agency, 2014):
Provide reliable, 24/7 high data rate communications services;
Monitor Arctic weather and climate change; and
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Monitor space weather.
The PCW system is seen as a priority space project by the Canadian government. The Prime
Minister’s Office has promoted expansion of Canada’s presence in the Arctic and the region’s
natural resources as important for the country’s economic development.
A summary of RFI responses delivered by January 2014 indicated that industry believed the
technical risks associated with the project to be acceptable and manageable. Consensus
indicated that the satellites’ weather payload would be the greatest limiting factor to any
proposed timelines, which estimated that desired capabilities could be delivered 5 to 6 years
after contract award (Boucher, 2015). As the mission is primarily intended to be a remote
sensing program, some concern has arisen that cost or weight-growth issues for the project
would lead to the communications package being downsized or dropped altogether (Smith,
Wickman, & Min, 2013). At the time the RFI was issued, full-scale development of the project
was desired to begin in November 2016 (Pugliese, 2014).
The final project team contracted to deliver the PCW Satellite system is led by Telesat, a
leading global satellite operator (Pugliese, 2014). Promising a “made-in-Canada” solution,
they teamed with MDA – a Canadian space system company that owns US-based
communications satellite manufacturer Space Systems Loral – and COM DEV, producer of
space systems and hardware in “80 percent of all communications satellites ever launched.”
The project was estimated at over $1.5B and, as of December 31, 2014, no additional
information on progress had been made public by the government (Boucher, 2015).
Arktika – Roskosmos
The concept of the Arktika project emerged in line with the Russian government’s “Arctic to
2020 and Beyond” policy. A key objective of this policy was the observation of the Russian
Arctic Zone as a cohesive region. The geographic extent of the RAZ means that it is difficult
to manage. Hence, the Russian Federation sought to address the issues of a broad and hard-
to-reach region through its space capabilities. The constellation would be a unique,
multipurpose network dedicated to monitoring the Arctic.
Under the proposed design, the system would be divided into four sub-systems, at least one
of which would always be present above the horizon to provide communications links.
Arktika-M satellites, fully funded from the Russian Federation’s space budget, would focus
on meteorology and emergency communications (Smith, Wickman, & Min, 2013). With an
apogee of 40,000 kilometres above the Earth’s surface and perigee of 1,000 kilometres,
frequent overflies of the polar regions would enable a practically uninterrupted view of the
northern hemisphere.
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Arktika-MS1 was to be a trio of commercially-funded satellites aimed at providing mobile
communications for the Polar Star network. A second trio of Arktika-MS2 craft would be
state-owned, with the aim of providing governmental communications, air-traffic control
and navigational services. The MS satellites would have an apogee of 50,000 kilometres and
take 24 hours for a complete revolution of the Earth. The final system, Arktika-R would be
focused on remote sensing capabilities in a sun-synchronous orbit extending from the North
to the South Pole (Zak & Pillet, 2013).
Each sub-system was to have its own ground station network. Five main centers would be
supplemented by more than 100 regional stations across the Federation to receive and
process data from the constellation. Roskosmos assigned NPO Lavochkin the contract,
valued at 5.368 billion rubles (approximately $79.4 million USD) for work until November
2015. Sources reporting the targeted first launch of Arktika satellites vary from 2015 to 2017
(Zak & Pillet, 2013) and the first Arktika-M satellite is currently scheduled for launch in
December 2015 (Microcom, 2015).
Iridium NEXT
Announced in 2007, the Iridium NEXT constellation aims to deliver high-quality voice and
significantly improved speeds and bandwidth for data over the entire planet’s surface,
including the polar regions. The unique Iridium constellation architecture will be maintained
– each satellite in space is linked to two others in the same orbital plane and one in each
adjacent plane of the constellation. This ‘mesh’ network routes communications traffic
among the satellites in the constellation to ensure a continuous connection everywhere, at
all times. Of special significance is the Iridium PRIME payload program conceived in tandem
with NEXT, which opens opportunities to include payloads that can leverage the
constellation’s power for non-communications applications (i.e. air traffic control and ship
tracking) (Iridium, 2015).
Like the existing constellation, Iridium NEXT will include 66 low-earth orbit (LEO)
communication satellites, with 6 in-orbit and 9 ground spares. The first Iridium NEXT satellite
is scheduled to be launched in October 2015 (Selding, 2015) with plans for the entire
constellation to be deployed by the end of 2017 (Iridium, 2015).
THOR 7
THOR 7 was successfully launched in April 2015 and injected into geostationary orbit. It is
Telenor Satellite Broadcasting’s first growth satellite, delivering satellite services for future
expansion requirements for all its markets. Its High Throughput Satellite (HTS) Ka-band
payload was specifically designed to deliver optimal coverage across Europe’s business
shipping lanes for the provision of maritime mobility VSAT services. Space Norway acquired a
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lifetime lease of THOR 7 use, providing Norway’s Troll research station in Antarctica with
increased satellite capacity for distribution of meteorological data (Telenor, 2015).
Personal Computing
Closely linked to (and dependent upon) telecommunications infrastructure is the use of
personal computing devices (i.e. laptops, tablets and smartphones) by Northerners. As the
penetration of this technology into Arctic communities continues to grow and EO-based
services become more and more accessible, residents and businesses will increase the use of
personal computing devices as a data consumption technology. However, as discussed in the
previous section deficiencies in current telecommunications capabilities is a significant
impediment to more widespread use of personal computing for activities such as citizen
science, planning of operations and travel, etc.
GNSS
Arctic navigation is becoming increasingly important, with mineral resource exploration,
shipping activity and tourism expeditions all on the rise. Integrity of navigational signals is
even more so, especially with respect to shipping, as an accident could be devastating to the
fragile ecosystem. GNSS systems require the aid of augmentation systems in order to meet
the demands for integrity and consistency in applications like dynamic positioning,
particularly in historically difficult geographies like the Arctic.
Although issues do arise with existing GNSS technology platforms in the Arctic, navigation is
possible. The geometry of existing satellite constellations’ orbital plane inclinations leave
them visible to high latitudes only at low elevation angles. While horizontal positioning is
possible, the absence of satellites overhead limits the possibility for vertical positioning (Gao,
Heng, Walter, & Enge, 2011). Limitations of these systems’ use in Arctic applications is due in
part to their inclinations but also to increased ionospheric activity causing signal disruption.
That much of the Arctic region is at or beyond the periphery of signals broadcast from Space
Based Augmentation Systems (SBAS) further compounds this problem for the region
(Sundlisaeter, Reid, Johnson, & Wan, 2012).
Some governments have recognized the deficiencies with current positioning integrity
beyond 70 degrees north latitude. Canada, for example, committed $5.6 million over the
period from 2015 to 2019 to conduct reviews identifying enhancements to the Arctic marine
navigation system in place (Government of Canada, 2015). A number of options have been
proposed beyond new satellite acquisitions, including addition of more SBAS reference
stations, integration of Iridium and GNSS satellites, and use of multi-constellation GNSS (Gao,
Heng, Walter, & Enge, 2011).
Global Positioning System (GPS) – United States
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The Global Positioning System is the most widely used GNSS. It is comprised of 31
operational satellites, offering coverage from at least 8 satellites at any time; each satellite
orbits the Earth twice daily. Satellites in the GPS are in MEO (20,200 km altitude) orbital
planes inclined at 55 degrees with respect to the equator. Improvements to the system have
been ongoing through the GPS modernization program, offering better accuracy and
reliability. The next generation of GPS, GPS III, will involve 8 satellites being launched and
secured at the same orbital inclination as the former systems. The developer, Lockheed
Martin, claims that along with an additional civilian signal, the constellation will deliver
increased accuracy and global coverage through heightened signal strength (Lockheed
Martin, 2014).
GLObal NAvigation Satellite System (GLONASS) - Russia
The Russian GLONASS constellation complements and provides an alternative to the United
States’ GPS. Its 24 operational satellites provide global coverage, with 5 satellites visible at
any one time; each satellite orbits the Earth twice daily. GLONASS satellites are also in MEO
(19,100 km altitude) orbital planes, however they are inclined at 64.8 degrees to the
equator. The GLONASS space segment modernization project focuses on delivering double
the original system’s accuracy. As of November 2014, two new GLONASS-K1 satellites had
been placed in orbit. While the initial plan was to launch only these two and then move on to
a GLONASS-K2 generation of satellites, this plan has stalled. Nine additional K1 satellites
were to be commissioned as sanctions prevented the delivery of radiation-resistant
electronic components required for the K2s (GPS World, 2014). Launch of the first K2
satellite is planned for 2018 (GPS World, 2015).
Galileo – Europe
When fully deployed, Galileo will consist of 24 operational satellites with six in-orbit spares
and be interoperable with GPS and GLONASS. Like GPS, Galileo satellites will be in MEO
(23,222 km altitude) orbital planes, with inclinations of 56 degrees to the equator. When
fully operational, Galileo navigation signals are expected to provide quality coverage for
latitudes as high as 75 degrees north and beyond – corresponding to Europe’s northernmost
terrestrial extents. Since October 2011, four pairs of satellites have been launched and made
operational. The next pair is planned for September 2015 with another launch scheduled
before 2016. The European Space Agency’s plan is to have initial services available by the
end of 2016; system completion is planned for 2020 (European Space Agency, 2015).
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Space-Based Augmentation Systems (SBAS)
The lack of adequate integrity coverage in the far North is also due in part to the coverage
extended by the Space-Based Augmentation Systems7 currently in operation. This gap in
meaningful service for the Arctic region can be attributed to too few reference stations being
available in the systems’ ground segment (Gao, Heng, Walter, & Enge, 2011). Further
opportunities for improvement are being researched through the support of 17 European
Space Agency Member States and Canada under the European GNSS Evolution Programme.
It is expected that expansion and adoption of dual-frequency will be incorporated into
EGNOS by 2020 (European Space Agency, 2015).
Even with improvements to global SBAS systems, the use of geostationary satellites is not
ideal for GNSS signals broadcast to the Arctic regions. As of 2012, problems such as errors in
position solutions were registered at latitudes higher than 72 degrees north. LEO satellites
provide an opportunity for more continuous connectivity in areas where the equatorial
geostationary satellites cannot. It has been proposed that the existing Iridium network could
be a suitable supplementary method for broadcasting SBAS messages in the Arctic. The
orbital design of Iridium satellites ensures high-elevation visibility in the Arctic, making the
constellation a strong candidate to enable SBAS linkage (Gao, Heng, Walter, & Enge, 2011).
Automatic Identification System (AIS)
Entering into force in 1980, the International Maritime Organization’s Safety of Life at Sea
(SOLAS) Convention is generally regarded as the most important international treaty
concerning the safety of ships. Specifying the minimum standards for construction,
equipment and operation of ships, the Convention has been amended numerous times to
modernize required safety standards regarding each of these aspects. Amendments made
between 2000 and 2002 mandated ships to carry automatic identification systems (AIS)
(International Maritime Organization, 2013). The updated SOLAS Conventions require, as of
2002, all passenger ships and cargo ships of at least 300 gross tonnage to be fitted with AIS
transponders (exactEarth, 2010). Until the mid-2000s, AIS was designed as a high intensity,
short-range identification and tracking network between other nearby ships and land-based
AIS base stations.
exactEarth
Cambridge, Ontario-based exactEarth launched its AIS satellite into a polar LEO plane in
2008. Within a 12-hour period, the satellite is capable of observing every point on the planet,
observing each pole every 100 minutes through its north-south orbit. As of 2014, the
7 The United States’ Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS), the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay
Service (EGNOS), the Russian System of Differential Correction and Monitoring (SDCM), and Japan’s MTSAT Satellite-based Augmentation System (MSAS)
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exactView constellation includes seven satellites. Two launches are scheduled for fall 2015,
which will include an equatorial satellite aimed at significantly improving global revisit times.
ExactEarth’s stated objective is to achieve and maintain a global revisit time of less than 90
minutes (exactEarth, 2015).
The company announced a partnership in 2015 with the Harris Corporation that enables the
exactView RT platform. The system will be comprised of 58 fully reprogrammable, hosted
payloads on satellites in the Iridium NEXT constellation. With the first scheduled launch in
early 2016, the system is expected to be complete by 2017. This new architecture will enable
persistent global coverage with revisit times less than one minute, providing continuous
signal tracking capability in real-time over “the complete maritime domain” (exactEarth,
2015).
ORBCOMM
ORBCOMM also launched its LEO satellites aimed at providing AIS services and messaging
capabilities in 2008. This first generation constellation was comprised of approximately 30
satellites, making passes that accommodated view of vessels between 9 and 12 hours a day.
The ground segment includes 15 stations strategically placed around the world, providing
access to the satellite constellation and interface capability with public and private data
networks. This system provides daily tracking information for over 120,000 vessels.
The American company launched its next iteration, a $230 million network expansion, with
six OG2 satellites in July 2014. Twelve more satellites were scheduled to be placed in orbit by
the end of 2015. ORBCOMM claimed these next-generation satellites would each be the
“equivalent of six” of their predecessors, providing increased network capacity and improved
coverage at higher latitudes. OG2 satellite passes are estimated to create vessel visibility in a
range of 15 to 22 hours (ORBCOMM, 2014).
Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)
The Federal Aviation Administration defines an unmanned aircraft system as “the unmanned
aircraft (UA) and all of the associated support equipment, control station, data links,
telemetry, communications and navigation equipment, etc., necessary to operate the
unmanned aircraft.” (FAA, 2015). In the context of environmental information collection in
the polar regions, the “system” includes the onboard sensor package.
Given the remoteness, severe weather, and lack of infrastructure to support science
missions in the polar regions, collecting the data for analysis of the changes in the regions
has been extremely difficult and UAS provides a potential solution to these problems. The
use of UAS for environmental research in the Arctic began in 1999 with research conducted
by the University of Colorado (Crowe & al, 2012). A number of organizations are making
active use of UAS for polar research. For example, NOAA believes that “There is a key
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information gap today between instruments on Earth's surface and on satellites - UAS can
bridge that gap.” (NOAA, 2016). Sponsored projects include: Deep Freeze 2016 (with USCG);
Arctic Aerial Calibration Experiments (2016); Arctic Shield with U.S. Coast Guard (2013, 2014
and 2015); Arctic Scan Eagle (Chuckchi Sea) (2015); and Marginal Ice Zone
EXperiment (2013). In November 2015, the British Antarctic Survey released a tender to
acquire a UAV for use in Antarctica, with a first scientific mission carried out in 2017
(Stevenson, 2015).
Deployment of UAS for data collection in the Arctic is not without challenges, a significant
one of which is gaining access to airspace to fly science missions. Since each Member State
that provides air traffic services in their respective areas of influence in the Arctic apply their
own domestic civil aviation regulations to their respective Flight Information Region (FIR),
determining what the rules for access may be is a daunting one, since the rules change as an
aircraft passes from one FIR into the next (Crowe & al, 2012). The AMAP UAS Expert Group is
advocating a harmonized regulatory approach. COMNAP is assessing the practical benefits of
UAS application to operations and logistics in the Antarctic region and the risks to human
safety and the built environment in the Antarctic region (Finnemore, 2015).
Sub-sea Oil and Gas Platforms
The Arctic holds an estimated 30 per cent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 13 per
cent of its undiscovered oil according to a 2009 estimate by the U.S. Geological Survey.
Although the current oversupply of oil on the world market has brought Arctic exploration to
a virtual standstill, energy analysts remain bullish on the long-term prospects for production
of these resources. To reduce the risks of energy exploration and production due to extreme
weather conditions, sea ice and icebergs in the Arctic efforts are underway to move from
vulnerable floating platforms to equipment installed directly on the sea floor (Sorenson,
2013). Statoil built the world’s first subsea separation, boosting and injection system in its
Tordis field in Norway’s North Sea in 2007 and they are now working on one of the next
steps: subsea compression (Eldridge, 2013). Statoil expects a sea-floor compression system
to increase its recovery from their Mikkel and Midgard reservoirs by 280 million barrels of oil
equivalent.
Sub-sea Mining
Deep sea mining involves the extraction of minerals such as copper, gold, iron, manganese,
lead, zinc and nickel from the seafloor using remotely operated vehicle techniques which
extract deposits from the seabed using mechanical or pressurised water drills (Allsopp & al,
2013). There are no operating deep sea mines, but the International Seabed Authority (ISA),
an autonomous intergovernmental body that organises, controls and administers mineral
resources beyond the limits of national jurisdiction, has so far approved 17 exploration
contracts. None of this exploration is in the Polar Regions.
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The Australian-Canadian company Nautilus Minerals, which has the most advanced project,
the Solwara 1 Project within the Exclusive Economic Zone of Papua New Guinea, is planning
commencement of mining operations in the first quarter of 2018 (Ferris, 2015). Their
technological approach involves the use of three machines, which will be operated remotely
from control rooms on a ship. The ship will be connected to a central pumping system that
will pipe minerals upward. An auxiliary cutter grinds down the seafloor to make it level
enough for the second piece of equipment, the bulk cutter, which grinds the resulting slurry
up fine enough for the collection machine to suck it and send it to a ship. On the ship, the
sea water is separated from the rock, particles larger than 8 microns are filtered out and the
water is pumped back to the seafloor.
Remote Health Care Delivery
Remote health care delivery (or telemedicine and telehealth) promises increased
affordability and accessibility of health care, and the reduction of distance and time barriers
to quality care. In few regions of the world is telehealth more necessary than in the Arctic,
where large distances, sparse populations, limited infrastructure, cultural conflicts and a lack
of local skilled professionals combine to limit access to health care (Exner-Pirot, 2015).
However, progress on the use of electronic information and telecommunications
technologies to support long-distance health care in the Arctic has been modest. For
example, Norway is known for early adoption of telemedicine services (in the early 1990s) to
serve the population living in rural and remote areas in the Arctic. Telemedicine services
include: telecardiology, teleobstetrics/prenatal telemedicine services, teleemergency
service, teleoncology, teleendocrinology, telesurgery and telepsychiatry, among many others
(Walderhaug & al, 2015). The Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium uses some of the
world’s most innovative telehealth devices to connect rural health providers and facilities,
and reached the milestone of 100,000 telehealth cases in 2011 (Exner-Pirot, 2015). And a
new partnership between the SickKids’s Tele-Link Mental Health Program in Toronto, Canada
with the Government of Nunavut established a telepsychiatry program that connects the
hospital’s psychiatrists with at-risk Inuit of all ages who are considering suicide (MacDonald,
2014).
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APPENDIX 5: STEERING COMMITTEE OF EXPERT ADVISORS
Name Organization
John Falkingham International Ice Charting Working Group
Andrew Fleming British Antarctic Survey
René Forsberg Danish Technical University
Tiina Kurvits GRID - Arendal
Peter Pulsifer National Snow and Ice Data Center
Jan-René Larsen Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program
Duke Snider The Nautical Institute
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APPENDIX 6: ORGANIZATIONS CONSULTED
Aker Arctic Technology Inc.
Alfred Wegener Institute
Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition
Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Working Group - AC
Arctic Research Consortium of the United States
Arctic Science Partnership
ArcticNet
Asiaq Greenland Survey
Association of Arctic Expedition Cruise Operators
Australian Antarctic Division
British Antarctic Survey
Canadian Coast Guard (Search and Rescue)
Canadian Cryospheric Information Network
Canadian Shipping Company
C-CORE
Chevron Arctic Centre
Circumpolar Conservation Union
Coalition of Legal Toothfish Operators
Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources
Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna Biodiversity Working Group - AC
Danish Energy Agency
Danish Meteorological Institute
Danish Technical University
European Fisheries Control Agency
European Maritime Safety Agency
Finnish Geospatial Research Institute
Finnish Ministry of Defence
International Association of Antarctica Tour Operators
International Ice Charting Working Group
International Network for Terrestrial Research and Monitoring in the Arctic
Inuit Circumpolar Council-Alaska
MET Norway
NASA Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Office / SSAI
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National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado
Norwegian Meteorological Institute
Norwegian Polar Institute
Polar Bears International
Polar Geospatial Center
Research Data Alliance (U.S.)
Royal Belgian Institute for Natural Sciences
Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research
Shell Global
Southern Ocean Observing System / Association of Polar Early Career Scientists
State Research Center Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute
Stockholm University
Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks
The Nautical Institute
UK Met Office
WCRP Climate and Cryosphere Project
ZAMG - Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik
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APPENDIX 7: REFERENCES
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