cso attachment report (2003 format)

8/11/2019 CSO Attachment Report (2003 Format)

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CHAPTER 1

BACKGROUND OF ORGANISATION

INTRODUCTIONFormation of the organisation

The Central Statistical Office (CSO) came into existence in 1894 when the British

South African Company (BSAC) first esta lishe! a "ecor! an! Statistical #epartment

un!er the control of $u ert $ar%ey& $ur%ey was 'ille! in the atopos an! the ci%il

commissioner at $arare (the then Salis ury) too' o%er his functions& The Office

con!ucte! its first census in Bulawayo in 189 for which the inin* an! Ci%il

Commissioners supplie! estimates of the minin* an! ur an population respecti%ely& +n189, another census was con!ucte! in Salis ury an! information was collecte!

throu*h the Office of the actin* a*istrate&

A %ariety of in!epen!ent sections were set up y 19-4 to en*a*e in the collection of

statistics& A recommen!ation was ma!e that *reater efficiency woul! e achie%e! if

these !uties were centrali.e! in a !epartment un!er a /ualifie! statistician& A

monetary pro%ision was ma!e upon recommen!ations for the esta lishment of a

Statistical Bureau un!er the inistry of $ome Affairs& The Bureau was tas'e! for0

Carryin* out any census collectin* compilin* an! analysin* statistical

information for the commercial in!ustrial a*ricultural an! minin* an! social

spheres of the economy&

+t was also to colla orate with the *o%ernment in the collection compilin*

co2coor!inatin* analysis an! pu lication of statistical recor!s of

a!ministration&+n 193 the Office was transforme! into a !epartment un!er the inistry of 5conomic

Affairs an! su se/uently chan*e! its name to the Central Statistical Office (CSO)& +n

1981 it was transferre! to the inistry of 6inance an! 5conomic #e%elopment un!er

which it operate! until in April - & Currently as from the year - , the

#epartment of Census an! Statistics is operatin* un!er the inistry of 6inance&

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Stat tor! information

The !epartment is a pu lic office as it is wholly controlle! y the *o%ernment of

7im a we an! its operations are *o%erne! y the pro%isions of the Census an!

Statistics Act (Chapter 1 0 ) as amen!e! y Act -- of - 1 effecte! on --

Septem er - -& The Act pro%i!es for the office of the #irector of Census an!

Statistics appointe! y the inister of 6inance or any inister that the resi!ent may

assi*n to a!minister the Act from time to time& The #irector is responsi le for

appointments of other staff mem ers an! the !aily a!ministration of the #epartment&

$e su mits a report to the inister after the th of :une each year !etailin* the

operations un!erta'en in the prece!in* year&

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CHAPTER "

ORGANISATIONA# STRUCTURE

Organisationa$ C $t re of CSO

The CSO is responsi le for the pro!uction of all official statistics relatin* to

7im a we& This is !one specifically an! in terms of the Census an! Statistics Act&

Broa!in* !escri in* the or*ani.ation its role is to pro!uce all official statistics y

collectin* compilin* pu lishin* an! !isseminatin* relia le statistics for use y

*o%ernment in!ustry an! commerce researchers international o!ies& +t

encompasses the or*ani.ation;s *oals eha%ioural norms an! !ominant i!eolo*ies& +t

can e influence! y such attitu!es towar!s customers corporate ima*e the !ecision

ma'in* process or the !e*ree of status consciousness that is hel! y mana*ement an!

employees&

%ISION& 'ISSION STATE'ENT AND CORE %A#UES

%ision

To e the lea!in* worl! class pro!ucer of


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Core (a$ es

+n pursuit of the mission the office hol!ers shall e respectful courteous open

transparent an! responsi%e to oth users an! suppliers of !ata& This will ensure hi*h

le%el of confi!entiality of information in pro!ucin* a hi*h /uality statistical ser%ice

with professionalism an! inte*rity&

Centra$ Statisti)a$ Offi)e Organogram

The or*ani.ation chart shows that the or*ani.ation wor's un!er a #irector who has a

pri%ate secretary to ai! him& The or*ani.ation is !i%i!e! into Social an! opulation

Statistics #i%ision an! 5conomic Statistics #i%ision& 5ach !i%ision wor's un!er a

#eputy #irector an! hence the or*ani.ation has two !eputy !irectors& The Social an!

opulation Statistics #i%ision is further !i%i!e! into Census an! Sur%eys Branch an!

Social Statistics Branch an! each ranch wor's un!er its own Assistant #irector&

=i'ewise the 5conomic Statistics #i%ision is !i%i!e! into ro!uction Statistics Branch

an! +ncome Analysis Branch with two Assistant #irectors hea!in* each ranch& 5ach

ranch is further split into !ifferent !epartments an! these !epartments wor' un!er a

Statistician with the ai! of officers who super%ises the clerical staff& The current

structure of the CSO is howe%er expecte! to chan*e as the or*anisation transforms to

The 7im a we Bureau of Statistics (7+ stat) as soon as the new Act is passe! y

arliament& This transformation will see the esta lishment of a Boar! of #irectors that

will e responsi le for *o%ernin* the operations of 7+ stat& A #irector >eneral shall

e the Chief 5xecuti%e Officer an! will e responsi le for the co2or!ination of the

eneral shall e

responsi le for co2or!inatin* the technical wor' of the Bureau&

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CSO or*anisational chart

DIRECTOR OF CENSUS AND STATISTICS

5conomic Statistics

(#eputy #irector)

opulation an! Social

Statistics

*De+ t! Dire)tor,

+ncome Analysis

(Assistant #irector )

ro!uction Statistics

(Assistant #irector )

+n!ustrial Statistics

A*riculture Statistics

6orei*n Tra!e Statistics

(Statisticians an! Cler's)

6inance

(Statisticians)

(Cler's)


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CORPORATE %A#UES

Team-or.

+t is an essential element for the success of an or*anisation culture& em ers nee! to

ha%e a spirit of to*etherness which is teamwor'& +n terms we realise that @to*ether

e%eryone accomplishes more teamwor' is encoura*e! at CSO for it is an essential

component of any or*anisation which coul! *reatly influence the total le%el of

accomplishment an! to some exten! can fulfil the social !esires of their mem ers&

Trans+aren)!

There is an open communication an! amon* employees& This promotes a peaceful an!

con!uci%e wor'in* en%ironment that fosters creati%ity an! expan!s pro!ucti%ity&

Transparency or clear communication !e%elops a clear learnin* company an! its

people are prepare! to spea'& They can express fran' opinions without fear or fa%our

*i%in* chances to each other s opinion an! in the en! *row an! pro*ress in harmony&

F$e/i0i$it!

A company must run to!ay if it wants to wal' tomorrow alon*si!e its competitors&

This fast2pace! corporate life is compoun!e! y the e%er2loomin* threat of chan*e so

much that an or*anisation must e flexi le to chan*es an! mana*e a!e/uately the

ris's that the chan*es rin*s&

CHAPTER

3


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E 2PECTATIONS

+ expecte! to ha%e a !eeper un!erstan!in* an! 'nowle!*e of all the thin*s that + learnt

at colle*e throu*h practice an! also to learn more a out mathematics in the

compilation of national fi*ures&

a) Be in%ol%e! in the calculation of inflation fi*ures an! the consumer price in!ex

) Be expose! to situations that woul! help me appreciate the existin* mathematicalmo!els an! e a le to formulate new ones&

c) 6ully comprehen! how *o%ernment non2*o%ernmental or*anisations an! in!ustryuse! the !ata statistics pro!uce! y the CSO to plan for present an! future

purposes&

!) Con!uct fiel! sur%eys an! collect information from househol!s&

e) Be the am assa!or in mar'etin* the Central Statistical Office to those who are notaware of this or*anisation tellin* them its function an! its enefits economically

althou*h + will e a stu!ent + am *oin* to try to use e%erythin* + ha%e learnt at

school to ma'e sure that at the en! of the year the or*anisation will e a le to attain

its o ecti%es&

+ ha! set expectations a out wor'in* in this fiel! as a worl! of !isco%erin* analysin*

an! comin* up with conclusions or %erifyin* the alrea!y existin* laws& athematical

mo!els an! sur%eys in%ol%e !esi*nin* for them to e appropriate for in%esti*ations to

e carrie! out& #esi*nin* in the form of computer pro*rammin* was also a prior

expectation ein* expose! to C2 ro*rammin* + mana*e! to wor' with the

pro*rammers at C&S&O in writin* pro*rams for CS ro which is use! for !ata entry an!

SAS which is use! for !ata manipulation an! ta ulation&

" 4 441-

,


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$ow my expectations suits in!ustrial realityThe application of #esi*n an! analysis of experiments


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su plot


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CHAPTER 4

NATURE OF INDUSTR5 6 NDUSTR5 DE%E#OP'ENTS

The official statistics pro!uce! y the CSO as the only or*ani.ation man!ate! y the

*o%ernment to pro!uce such statistical information forms the foun!ation of all


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an! sai! @Aren t we ma'in* a *oo! contri ution to the economyIH The pi* answere!

@?hen you pro!uce e**s you are ma'in* a contri ution ut when + contri ute acon

that is total commitmentH& This commitment shoul! translate into mainstreamin*

statistics in the national !e%elopment plans an! in usin* statistics for policy !esi*n

an! e%i!ence2 ase! plannin* an! !ecision ma'in*& Autonomous will lea! to

coor!ination an! colla oration that will ensure inter alia that the enerally pro!uces etter statistical information an!

+ncrease use of information especially for e%i!ence2 ase! policy an! !ecision

ma'in*&

Pro+ose7 Organisationa$ Str )t re of 8I'stat

A tripartite type of Boar! was su**este! an! will e represente! y >o%ernment

Business an! Ci%il Society& The propose! structure of 7+ stat will ha%e a Boar! of

#irectors on top followe! y the #irector >eneral an! lastly the #eputy #irector

>eneral& After the !irectors there is *oin* to e some !irectorates& The !irectorates

will e respecti%ely for the sections of 5conomic an! 6inancial Statistics opulation

an! Social Statistics Statistical Ser%ices +nformation an! Telecommunication

Technolo*y an! Operations Sur%eys an! 6iel! Operations an! finally of Corporate

Ser%ices& There will e two statistical ranches which are Common Statistics Ser%ice

an! ro%incial Statistical offices& 6inally there will e sections for special unit which

will comprise of +nternal Au!it Strate*y an! lannin* an! lastly u lic an!

+nternational relations&

The autonomous or*ani.ation en%isa*e! woul! operate in!epen!ently an! outsi!e the

pu lic ser%ice& A new statistics authority outsi!e the ci%il ser%ice woul! e create!

within the pro%ision of plannin* !ata for 'ey sta'ehol!ers in *o%ernment the pu lic

an! pri%ate sectors remainin* the centrepiece of the ser%ice&

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8imstat a-areness )am+aigns are there to9

Offer an open forum an! !ialo*ue etween pro!ucers an! users of statisticsJ

"e%iew an! appraise the status of current official statisticsJ

Assess the impact an! rele%ance to users of pu lishe! statisticsJ

#raw a lue print an! *ui!elines for the !issemination of *o%ernment statistics

for the next fi%e yearsJ

Stu!y an! if possi le ma'e *oo! the shortfalls ottlenec's an! constraints

face! y the CSO as the main pro!ucer of official statistics&

To-ar7s transformation

To etter the nee!s of the nation y pro%i!in* *oo! !ata for0

a'in* hu*e sa%in*s throu*h use of e%i!ence ase! policy an! !ecision2

ma'in*&6ormulation of


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The or*ani.ation is !i%i!e! into two main !i%isions an! these are0

S OCIA# AND P OPU#ATION S TATISTICS D I%ISION

This !i%ision is !i%i!e! into two main ranches that are hea!e! y Assistant

#irectors& These ranches are namely0

Census an! Sur%eys Branch

Social Statistics Branch

5ach of the two ranches is further su !i%i!e! into sections that are hea!e! y

statisticians&

C ENSUS AND S UR%E5S B RANCH

This is the only ranch that is !ecentralise! !own to pro%incial an! !istrict le%els& The

ranch consists of the followin* sections0

Ho seho$7 S r(e!s Se)tion

+ts ma or role is to carry out a continuous an! coor!inate! series of national househol!

sur%eys on a wi!e ran*e of su ects such as health e!ucation a*riculture etc&

Po+ $ation Cens s an7 Cartogra+h! Se)tion

The main aim is to pro%i!e the num er of persons per sin*le !efine! unit num er of

persons in particular cate*ories such as a*e an! sex &The carto*raphy section pro%i!es

a map !ata ase that is lin'e! to census !ata&

S OCIA# S TATISTICS B RANCH

The Social Statistics Branch on the other han! consists of a num er of sections which

are0

Em+$o!ment an7 E7 )ation Statisti)s Se)tion

+ts function is to pro!uce an! pro%i!e current formal employment statistics pro!uce

an! !isseminate the +n!icator onitorin*2 =a our 6orce Sur%ey results collect an!

input e!ucation statistics such as enrolment fi*ures in !ifferent e!ucational

institutions the num er of e!ucation institutions in the country literacy le%els in the

country into core pu lications&

En(ironment Statisti)s Se)tion

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+ts function is to pro!uce current en%ironment statistics such !eforestation le%els in

7im a we pollution le%els climatic con!itions wil!life an! tourism&

Hea$th an7 %ita$ Statisti)s Se)tion

+ts function is to pro!uce an! pro%i!e up to !ate health an! %ital statistics such as

mortality rates etc

Gen7er Statisti)s Se)tion

+ts function is to pro!uce statistics on *en!er ine/ualities etween males an! females&

Internationa$ 'igration an7 To rism Statisti)s Se)tion

+ts function is to pro!uce !ata on immi*rants emi*rants !epartin* %isitors an!

resi!ents pu lishin* tra%el receipts fi*ures an! hotel occupancy !ata&

: 7i)ia$ an7 So)ia$ ;e$fare Statisti)s Se)tion

+ts function is to pro!uce statistics on prisons crime rates asin* on information

recei%e! from the 7im a we "epu lic olice social welfare statistics an! community

ser%ice statistics&

So)ia$ In7i)ators 6 #i(ing Con7itions Statisti)s Se)tion

+ts function is to pro!uce an! !isseminate !ata on the li%in* con!itions of the

population& +t also houses the 7im a we Statistics #ata ase (7+ #AT)&

E CONO'IC S TATISTICS D I%ISION

This !i%ision consists two ranches namely0

PRODUCTION STATISTICS BRANCH

This ranch consists of three sections0

Agri) $t re Statisti)s Se)tion

+t collects socio2 economic !ata pertainin* to the a*ricultural sector inclu!in*

structures of farms an! hol!in*s&

Foreign Tra7e Statisti)s Se)tion

+ts function is to pro!uce external tra!e statistics0 which show le%els an! chan*es in

statistics y perio! commo!ity countryJ international an! re*ional *roupin*s an!

statistics y !irection of flow&

Pro7 )tion Statisti)s Se)tion

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+ts function is to pro!uce in!ustrial statistics0 which !escri e the structural

characteristics an! contri ution of the !istri uti%e pro!ucti%e (exclu!in* a*riculture)

transport an! communication sectors of the economy& This section also inclu!es the

Dis+at)h an7 Re)o(er! Unit

+t is responsi le for !ispatchin* /uestionnaires on ehalf of some of the or*ani.ation s

sections which inclu!e A*riculture Statistics 5mployment Statistics an! ro!uction

Statistics Sections respecti%ely& +t is also responsi le for ma'in* follow2 ups on non2

"espon!ents to these /uestionnaires&

These sections are supporte! y the Training Se)tion that is responsi le for

facilitatin* an in2house trainin* pro*ramme for not only !epartmental personnel ut

for fellow ministries an! other *o%ernment !epartments& This is !one to ensure that

the /uality of the !ata collecte! y the CSO is not compromise! in any way&

INCO'E ANA#5SIS BRANCH

This ranch consists of the followin* sections0

Nationa$ A))o nts Statisti)s Se)tion

?hose ma or function is that of compilin* national accounts reports&

Finan)e Statisti)s Se)tion

?hich analyses Central *o%ernment re%enue expen!iture an! consumption y

preparin* pro!uction accounts income an! expen!iture accounts etc&

Pri)es Statisti)s Se)tion

?hose functions inclu!e processin* an! pu lishin* the monthly Consumer rice

+n!ex Muarterly rices Bulletin up!ate foo! po%erty lines an! !isseminate

information on monthly inflation rates&

Informa$ Se)tor Statisti)s Se)tion

?hich pro!uces current informal sector fi*ures& The two !i%isions of the Central

Statistical Office are supporte! y other non2statistical sections which inclu!e0

#es'top u lishin* an! rintin*

5lectronic #ata rocessin*

A!ministration an! 6inance

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CHAPTER Go(ernmenta$ Organi=ations *NGOs, 0

The CSO has a trac' recor! of its han!2to2han! relationship with the Os& O%er the

past years CSO ha%e een wor'in* closely with the Os con!uctin* sponsore!

researches on ehalf these or*ani.ations an! supplyin* %ital information to them free

of char*e& These Os inclu!es


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#e%elopment OAL + 6 ?orl! Ban' etc& also !ominate the list of CSO

sta'ehol!er

Karious pu lications are pro!uce! to the pu lic an! usiness sectors an! these are

summarise! elow0

SECTION PUB#ICATIONSA*riculture A*riculture an! =i%estoc' Sur%ey

"eports inclu!es ost $ar%est "esults

Crop 6orecast report Butcheries an!

Tanneries report


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CHAPTER ?

CO'PAN5>SOCIET5 CONNECTIONS

Statisti)s In>ser(i)e Training

The Central Statistical Office plays a crucial role y pro%in* an in2ser%ice trainin*

pro*ramme to its employees an! outsi!ers from *o%ernment !epartments at no

char*e& This helps most ci%il ser%ants to appreciate how !ifferent mathematical

formulae can e implemente! in turnin* aroun! our economy&

B siness Comm nit!

CSO has also esta lishe! concrete relationship with the usiness sector& +t hosts

special meetin*s an! wor'shops with concerne! parties to officially announce fi*ures

clearly explainin* how these fi*ures were compile!& This re!uces if not eliminates

confusion an! misinterpretations on statistical pu lications& +t also wor's alon*si!e

other !e%elopment partners such as Lnite!


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of *o%ernment policies an! there y notin* areas nee!in* impro%ement for etter

li%in* of 7im a weans&

C$A &,

CHAPTER @

PERSONA# AND PROFESSIONA# DE%E#OP'ENTS

Forma$ #earning Co rses

#urin* my first wee' + un!erwent on the o trainin* where my super%isor explaine!

the system + wor'e! on& Ai!e! y a trainin* manual for the system + familiari.e!

myself with the system an! 'ey terms that re/uire! clarification an! !efinitions& This

was of enefit to the !e*ree pro*ram since it *a%e me 'nowle!*e on popular

economics terms use! y the a*riculture in!ustry&

Ke! S.i$$s De(e$o+ment

Professiona$ S.i$$s

a3 Te)hni)a$ s.i$$s+ ac/uire! !ata sur%ey techni/ues that encompasses

1& #ata collection

-& #ata co!in* an! e!itin*

& #ata capturin*

4& #ata cleanin* an! ta ulation

& #ata analysis

03 Effe)ti(e Comm ni)ation S.i$$s 0+nitially this pro%e! to e !ifficult as + foun! myself ha%in* to !eal with the

*eneral pu lic as well as senior personnel& Su se/uently the interaction with

clients suppliers an! usiness partners meant that + nee! to impro%e on how +

articulate! myself&& Also !e%elope! *oo! formal an! informal communication

s'ills within the or*ani.ation since almost all communication was !one either

y telephone e2mail or letters& This s'ill in%ol%es %isual oral an! written

communication& + also inter%iewe! househol!s in the u'uni Small Scale

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Commercial 6arms in utare !urin* the - 3 A*riculture an! li%estoc' Sur%ey

ost har%est !ata collection exercise

&

Initiati(e an7 organising a0i$it!

+ was a le to use own initiati%e in pro lem situations an! wor' without close

super%ision measure! y my completion of wor' in time an! pro!ucin*

satisfactory results

)3 Ana$!ti)a$ S.i$$s 0

Carryin* out inferences on the causes of %ariations in crop yiel!s in the

!ifferent sectors A1 A- Ol! "esettlement Schemes o!els (A B1 B- 5)

Communal =ar*e Scale an! Small Scale Commercial 6arms cause! y

%aria les li'e soil type rainfall an! !ifferent types of fertili.ers applie!&

73 'anageria$ S.i$$s 0

These inclu!e confi!ence an! teamwor' spirit& These helpe! me !urin* the

- 3 ost $ar%est !ata collection e!itin* an! processin* + am now thorou*h

an! metho!ical in *atherin* !ata&

e3 Ris. 'anagement S.i$$s 0


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h3 a$it! stan7ar7s of -or. o t+ t 9

+ achie%e! the re/uire! stan!ar!s of /uality an! completeness of wor'& + was

a le to complete my analysis of area measurement an! yiel! estimates an!

attaine! the !ea! line for the crop forecastin* committee&

Persona$ De(e$o+ment

Strengths

a) + was to i!entify !ifferent aspects of mathematics li'e pro a ility proportional to

si.e use! in sample !esi*nin* y the Central Statistical Office&

) + coul! ta'e the initiati%e when re/uire!& + was often assi*ne! to perform tas's

within the section some of which + coor!inate! with minimal or no super%ision at

all& This roa!ene! my mental stren*th an! tau*ht me to e in!epen!ent in

performin* my !uties&

c) + woul! ta'e or!ers an! perform re/uire! !uties in time e%en those !uties that

in%ol%e! thin*s that + ha! not learnt at colle*e&

!) A ility to wor' un!er pressure& $a%in* een attache! in one of the usy sections in

the CSO + mana*e! to a! ust to the en%ironment e%en as the wor'loa! 'ept

increasin*& ?e use! to *o to wor' e%en at pu lic holi!ays&

e) + was a le to *rasp new concepts& The CSO li'e any other hi*hly acti%e

or*ani.ation uses state of the art machinery an! software& + was a le to ac/uire

some 'nowle!*e on the use of statistical software pac'a*es such as CS ro !ata

entry S SS 5%iews +


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within& This has *reatly impro%e! my communication an! ne*otiatin* s'ills an! +

can safely interact with anyone professionally at any le%el&

;ea.nesses

a) Bein* a stu!ent + was not in%ol%e! in a lot of core acti%ities within the or*anisation

ecause of the confi!entiality clause of the or*anisation&

) + was not e%en in%ol%e! in some ma or meetin*s that were hel! in the !epartment& +

was restricte! in some wor' to !o&

c) Bein* seen as ust a stu!ent also presente! a pro lem to me this was !ue to the

fact that some of the employees elie%e! that stu!ents lac'e! the experience as well

as the exposure to !o anythin* that was fruitful to their cause&

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CHAPTER

Han7$ing Conf$i)t 0et-een +ersona$ an7 organi=ationa$ o0 e)ti(es

Conflict can e !efine! as a clash of opinions *oals %alues perceptions or

personalities an! this usually arises from communication of our wants nee!s an!

%alues to others or ori*inates from past ri%alries& Conflict etween personal an!or*ani.ational o ecti%es at wor' is ine%ita le an! one has to fin! means an! ways to

!eal with the conflict so that the !esire! results are achie%e! oth at in!i%i!ual le%el

an! at or*ani.ational le%el& ersonally + ha! to fulfil my personal o ecti%es o%er

lunch time after normal wor'in* hours an! when usiness was low&

This helpe! me to pre%ent the clashes etween my learnin* o ecti%es an! the nee! to

carry out my specific !uties& + ha! a timeta le to satisfy my learnin* o ecti%esoutsi!e wor'in* hours& This was a perio! when + woul! %isit the CSO li rary to rea!

some clerical trainin* manuals an! some information pertainin* to a*ricultural !ata

so that + coul! e fully e/uippe! to carry out my !uties efficiently y usin* the

'nowle!*e + woul! ha%e ac/uire! from the trainin* manual an! other sources&

#urin* my normal wor'in* hours + was allocate! time to rea! the trainin* manual so

that + ecome familiar with the


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sta'ehol!ers in%ol%e!& Thus meetin*s with these sta'ehol!ers were hi*hly

confi!ential an! + was not allowe! to atten! re*ar!less of my nee! to 'now what

actually too' place in these 'in!s of meetin*s& 6or example + coul! not atten! the

crop2forecastin* meetin* that was atten!e! y the Crop 6orecastin* Committee that

inclu!es inister of =an!s an! A*riculture inister of +nformation an! u licity an!

the inister of 6inance


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28/55

6ertili.er an! lime usa*e&

Em+$o!mentThe a**re*ate wor'force split into owners an! employees&

lot2hol!ers an! househol!s mem ers wor'in* on the hol!in* farm y sex&

ermanent an! casual wor'ers y sex an! earnin*s&

Cre!it an! loan facilities *i%en to farmers

O0 e)ti(es of the Agri) $t re an7 #i(esto). S r(e! *A#S,

The main o ecti%e of the A*riculture an! =i%estoc' Sur%ey is to pro%i!e planners

with necessary !ata for oth short an! lon* term strate*ies for !ealin* with foo!supply situations& The sur%ey is !esi*ne! to pro%i!e enchmar' !ata on0

+n%entory of farm implements an! machinery&

Cost of new uil!in*s wor's an! farm impro%ements&

+n%entory of cattle an! other li%estoc'&

Culti%ate! areas an! croppin* patterns&

6ertili.er an! lime usa*e&

Diel! estimate&

ersons li%in* an! wor'in* on hol!in*s&

Cre!its an! loan facilities&

Transport costs an! fuel use on farms&

Uses of Agri) $t re an7 #i(esto). S r(e!

5conomic analysis of the a*riculture in!ustry&

6ormulation of *o%ernment s a*ricultural policy on su si!ies prices

mar'etin* etc&

a'in* forecasts of forei*n currency earnin*s from a*ricultural exports an!

forei*n exchan*e re/uirements to meet the cost of importe! inputs for

a*riculture&

+nta'e plannin* of crops an! li%estoc' y the mar'etin* oar!s an!

companies&

Assessin* the foo! position of the country&

6orecastin* of a*ricultural inputs y farmers&

-8


29/55

Compilation of the >ross #omestic pro!uct (># ) fi*ures&

ro%ision of aseline !ata for research&

;or. Done an7 Re$e(an)e to Degree Progamme

+ was in%ol%e! in a lot of wor' at CSO& Since + was wor'in* at the A*riculture

Section most of my tas's were ase! on the pro!uction of A*riculture Statistics& y

main !uties were

#ata collection

#ata co!in* an! e!itin*#ata capturin*

#ata cleanin*

#ata analysis an! ta ulation

This in%ol%e! a num er of mo!ules which are0

Re)or7 T!+e 9 Catt$e +o+ $ation an7 )hanges in her7 an7 Re)or7 t!+e 49 Other

$i(esto). +o+ $ation an7 )hanges3

"ecor! type pro%i!es !ata on cattle in the a*riculture sectors an! chan*es in cattle'ept& Muestionnaires are complete! twice a year co%erin* the perio!s0 1 April to

Septem er an! 1 Octo er to 1 arch& The total num er of cattle or other li%estoc'

her! as at 1 arch or Septem er - 4 from the pre%ious roun!s ecome our

openin* stoc's for the secon! roun!& The total cattle or other li%estoc' as at

Septem er - 4 or 1 arch - ecomes our closin* stoc'& The emphasis was on

the alance of the e/uality of the linear e/uation 0

C$osing sto). *D, O+ening sto). *A, In)reases *B,> De)reases *C,3y tas' was therefore to chec' an! ma'e sure this e/uality hol!s in all cases efore

forwar!in* the /uestionnaires to the #ata rocessin* !epartment&

In)reases

The reference perio! is the past six months

+nclu!es irths purchases other *ains in the form of *ifts lo ola transfers etc&

De)reases

+nclu!es !eaths an! loses sales slau*hterin* an! other transfers out e&*& *ifts an!

lo ola&

-9


30/55

Re)or7 T!+e @9 Post Har(est

This sur%ey is carrie! out annually in or!er to account for the actual crop pro!uction

for a particular farmin* season& This helps in assessin* the foo! position of the

country as a whole& +t also helps the *o%ernment to u!*et an! e%aluate if there is

nee! to import or export&

Data )o$$e)tion

+ was traine! on inter%iew s'ills an! sur%ey techni/ues for effecti%e communication

an! intellectual s'ills& + was then !eploye! to u'uni Small Scale 6arms in

anicalan! for !ata collection& + spen! two wee's %isitin* an! con!uctin* inter%iews

on selecte! househol!s liste! in the master sample& + collecte! the !ata asin* on the

e/uality of the linear e/uation Pro7 )tion Tota$ Sa$es Retentions &

Data )o7ing an7 e7iting

The co!in* an! e!itin* in%ol%es chec'in* for the completeness of geo )o7e that

inclu!es +ro(in)e& 7istri)t& -ar7& se)tor& farm n m0er& +$ot ho$7er n m0er& !ear&

nat ra$ region an7 re)or7 t!+e3 ?e also chec'e! for the correctness of crop co!es

an! also %erifyin* on the e/uality of the linear e/uation Pro7 )tion Tota$ Sa$es

Retentions & ro!uction in this context refers to the total output pro!uce! which is the

total /uantity har%este! y a farmer !urin* a particular farmin* season& Total sales are

the summation of sales to mar'etin* oar!s li'e the >rain ar'etin* Boar! Cotton

Company of 7im a we an! To acco +n!ustries ar'etin* Boar! an! other sales that

inclu!e arter tra!e sales within the community an! !onations& This was !one to

ma'e the !ata complete an! consistent so that there woul! e minimum /ueries when

capturin* the !ata&

Data )a+t ring

+ was also in%ol%e! in !ata capturin* for the ost $ar%est Sur%ey usin* CSpro !ata

entry an! this *reatly impro%e! my 'ey oar! s'ills&


31/55

Data )$eaning an7 7ata +ro)essing

Capture! !ata is then cleane! for resi!ual errors usin* Statistical Application Software

(SAS) for each sector for example communal ol! resettlement schemes A1 A-

small scale commercial farms an! lar*e scale commercial farms separately& #ata

cleanin* process in%ol%es chec'in* for hi*h or low yiel!s an! also area plante! an!

pro!uction reape! shoul! e positi%ely correlate!& The !ata processin* is normally

!one y pro*rammers fortunately + ha! to wor' with them an! this ena le! me to

ha%e a si*ht on how the ta les are pro!uce!& After compilin* of each sector s ta le we

then sum the total mai.e pro!uction in 7im a we for - 3 farmin* season that was

1484 metric tonnes&

S!stemati) se$e)tion of the EAs

The 5As were selecte! from the 7 S9- in a systematic manner with e/ual

pro a ility an! in!epen!ently in each stratum after the 5As were or!ere! accor!in*

to the or!er of selection of the 7 S9-&

The selection inter%al is calculate! as follows0

+h E h A h

a

where Ah is the num er of 5As that existe! in the 7 S9- for the h th stratum an! a h is

the num er of 5As selecte! y the 7#$S&

The samplin* pro a ilities were calculate! separately for each samplin* sta*e an! for

each stratum& The followin* notations were use!0

1hi is the samplin* pro a ility for the i th 5A in the h th stratum accor!in* to the 7 S9-

-hi is the samplin* pro a ility for the i th 5A in the h th stratum for 7#$S

hi is the samplin* pro a ility for the househol! in the i th 5A of the h th stratum&

1hi is calculate! as follows0

hi P

1 E hih A 1& hi 1

1


32/55

where A h is the num er of 5As selecte! in the 7 S9- h th stratum 1hi is the num er

of househol!s in the i th 5A accor!in* to the 199- opulation Census an! N 1hi is the

num er of househol!s in the h th stratum accor!in* to the 199- opulation Census&

-hi is the in%erse of the 5A selecte! inter%alJ hi P - E ha

h A

+n or!er for the sample to e self2wei*hte! within each stratum the stratum o%erall

pro a ility f h E 1hi & -hi & hi must e the same for each househol! in the sample that

is

hi P

9 E h f with f h E hn

hihi P P -1 & h N

?here hn is the num er of househol!s selecte! in the h th stratum an! < h is the

pro ecte! num er of househol!s in 1994 for the h th stratum&

The selection of househol!s was systematic with e/ual pro a ilities an! the

househol! samplin* inter%al + hi in the i th 5a of the h th stratum was calculate! as

hi I E I hih P ! 9&

?here h is the correction factor in the h th stratum to correct for the fact that the

7 S9- o%er sample! the ur an areas& 6or each 5a a list of househol!s was o taine!

from the 7#$S prior to the main sur%ey fiel!wor'&&

Sam+$ing Errors

?hether or not a sample will *i%e results which are sufficiently representati%e of the

whole a**re*ate !epen!s primarily on whether the errors intro!uce! y the samplin*

process are sufficiently small not to in%ali!ate the results for the purposes for which

they are re/uire!& 5%en if a proper process of selection is employe! the sample can

not e exactly representati%e of the whole a**re*ate& The ine%ita le errors which thenoccur in the results are terme! the ran!om samplin* errors of the results& The a%era*e

ma*nitu!e of these ran!om samplin* errors will !epen! on the si.e of the sample on

the %aria ility of the material on the samplin* proce!ure a!opte! an! on the way in

which the results are calculate!&

-


33/55

+f a proper process of selection is a!opte! the a%era*e ma*nitu!e of the ran!om

samplin* errors an! in !ee! the expecte! fre/uency of occurrence of errors of any

ma*nitu!e can e calculate! from the !etaile! results o taine! from the actual

sample& An extension of the analysis in%ol%e! in the calculation of these errors

ena les the relati%e occurrence of !ifferent samplin* metho!s which can e employe!

on the same material to e assesse! an! thus ena les further sur%eys to e more

efficiently planne!&

Samplin* errors inclu!e non2response call2 ac's an! the !esi*n effect& The

ma*nitu!e of samplin* error is !etermine! y sample si.e samplin* !esi*n estimator

an! nature of the population&

The ma*nitu!e of samplin* error is in%ersely proportional to si.e of sample

5rror

6i* +

Sample si.e

The samplin* error will e estimate! y the stan!ar! error

) Non>sam+$ing errors

These are systematic errors much arises in sur%eys at !ata collection phase causes are0

2 #efects in the samplin* frame sue to improper !efinition of samplin* units

listin* or mappin*&

2 5numerator an! super%isors lapses&

2 "esponse errors respon!ents lapse an! faulty metho!s of measurement

2 5rrors !ue to non2response&

2 Conceptual an! !efinitional pro lems

CHAPTER 1


34/55

A++$i)ation of $earnt s.i$$s

Short Resear)h Pro e)t

A< A


35/55

a) To in%esti*ate if there is lon* run relationship etween three %aria les to acco

sales area plante! an! yiel! ha&

) To ma'e forecast of expecte! sales from 199,2- 8&

c) To fin! out if chan*es in a%era*e price are plante! an! yiel! are of any si*nificant

to %olume of to acco sales&

!) To !etermine a mo!el on the mass sol! ('*) area (ha) yiel! ('* ha) an! a%era*e

price an! carry out hypothesis testin*&

#iterat re Re(ie-

"esearches of this nature ha%e een carrie! out y research oar!s li'e To0a))o

In7 str! an7 'ar.eting Boar7 *TI'B,3 They were mostly experiments an!

analysis of the correspon!in* results& ost of these experiments were !one to

!etermine the amount or type of fertili.er an! amount of water re/uire! y the crop in

a particular area& Accor!in* to their fin!in*s !ifferent le%els of fertilisers applie! to

to acco with the help of *oo! rains soil types time of transplantin* the see!lin*s to

the fiel! an! pestici!es applie! can oost to acco yiel!s& This analysis will allow me

to fin! the main !eterminants of flue cure! to acco pro!uction in lar*e commercial

farms& A similar research was !oneJ @Statistical Analysis of the ro!uction of mai.e in

7im a we 3*8im0a0-e Farmers De(e$o+ment Organisation& 8FDO&" Ann a$

Re+ort,3 $owe%er this stu!y was focusin* on the causes of %ariations in pro!uction

for mai.e in the commercial farms of 7im a we (A- SSC6 an! =SC6)& The research

went on to show that the type of see! plante! contri utes to /uantity har%este!& +n my

analysis + assume! that pro!uction is e/ui%alent to sales an! there are no retentions on

to acco unli'e in the case of mai.e where there are retentions for family consumption&

Accor!in* to TI'B Ann a$ Re+ort " < 7im a we is one of the ma or pro!ucer

an! exporter of to acco in the worl!& +n 199321998 a%era*e annual exports of to acco

were 1-, tonnes of which flue2cure! accounts for more than 9 P& Total exports of

to acco increase! y 4 P etween 19812198 an! 199321998& +ncrease in oth area

plante! yiel!s an! a%era*e price has contri ute! a si*nificant increase in %olume of

sales of to acco o%er the past !eca!e&

+< "O:5CT

So r)es of 7ata an7 its $imitations9


36/55

The !ata use! in this pro ect is from the Muarterly Ta les (19,12- ) that are

pro!uce! y the To acco +n!ustries ar'etin* Boar! (T+ B) in con unction with

Central Statistical Office A*riculture Statistics Section& The !ata is of hi*h /uality

since the staff responsi le for its collection an! processin* is hi*hly professional&

'etho7o$og!

+n my analysis + am *oin* to use secon!ary !ata from T+ B Annual "eport -

to acco pro!uction 19,12-

a) Time Series Analysis

+ am *oin* to capture the a%aila le !ata set for flue cure! to acco

19,12- usin* excel an! then plot the series tren! in excel to

!etermine the *eneral tren! of flue cure! to acco sales o%er the years&

#ifference !ata on %olume of sales to ma'e it stationary& ( inta )

lottin* the AC6 an! AC6&

a'in* forecast usin* the fitte! mo!el&

) "e*ression Analysis

lot scatter plots for area yiel! an! price an! their contri ution to

%olume of to acco sales&

ost my !ata to S SS an! o tain the *eneral linear e/uation usin*

re*ression analysis0 D t E Q R Q1G1 R Q- G - R QG R i

where D t E %olume of mass sol! in 1 '*s G1 E area 1 ha

G - E yiel!('* ha) G Ea%era*e price(.wc '*) an! i is the ran!om error term

o!el !ia*nostics test on mo!el specification usin* the #ur in ?atson

an! r -

$ypothesis testin*J

$ 0 Q1 E Q- E UE Q ' E

%s

$10 Q V for at least one

O tain resi!ual plots an! test for mo!el fitness&

Come up with conclusions an! recommen!ations&

+< "O:5CT

3


37/55

Ass m+tions


38/55

Year Mass sold in Area ,10ha yied (kg/ha) average price

1 '*s

1971 5,987 41 41 !"!4187# !,089 4455 4455 49"19197 !,798 45#0 45#0 54"!#1974 7,1!0 5!5! 5!5! 78"#91975 8, 9# !58 !58 !8"8197! 11,05 !!#9 !!#9 !8"81977 8, 7 5!99 5!99 7 "#71978 8,#97 5494 5494 98"81979 11,1!9 59! 59! 8#" 91980 1#,#57 !4 1 !4 1 79"491981 !,7 ! 810 810 18 "7!198# 8,9 9 4!4 4!4 1!7" #198 9,4 0 4!!# 4!!# 188"551984 11,9!4 5049 5049 #0!"5!1985 10,55! 5#4! 5#4! #!8"48

198! 11,4 0 57 5 57 5 1 " 81987 1#,800 ! 54 ! 54 #17"91988 11,991 5918 5918 9 "481989 1#,99! 57!! 57!! 4#9"7#1990 1 , 87 594 594 !48"541991 17,015 !!9 !!9 1157"#9199# #0,11! 8007 8007 810" 9199 #1,8 7 8#90 8#90 80#"!#1994 1!,9## !74# !74# 1 80" 91995 19,875 7455 7455 180 "!1199! #0,155 81# 81# #901"911997 18,154 90! 90! #900"7!

1998 #1,591 9191 9191 474"#51999 19,#15 847! 847! !!# "#7#000 # ,!95 848! 848! 81 1"#!#001 #0,#54 7!0# 7!0# 174!4"4!#00# 17,584 74 0 74 0 59#5"11#00 8,181 4957 4957 180 14#004 !,890 440 440 8!14#005 7, 8 5797 5797 ##710"#!

+< "O:5CT

8


39/55

O0 e)ti(e *a, To in(estigate if there is $ong r n re$ationshi+ 0et-een three

(aria0$es& to0a))o sa$es& area +$ante7 an7 a(erage +ri)e3

Fig re 131 Time Series +$ot for to0a))o sa$es& area +$ante7 an7 !ie$76ha

There is a stron* an! lon* run relationship etween to acco sales area plante! an!

a%era*e yiel! per hectare as shown y Fig re 1 &13 The years 19,121999 saw to acco

pro!uction pro*ressin* positi%ely with some !ecreases in198- an! 199- pro a ly !ue

to the pre%alence of !rau*ht& #urin* the same perio!19,121999 there was a positi%eincrease in area that resulte! in low yiel! increase rate causin* low yiel!s& +t can e

clearly shown that in - 1 to acco sales an! area plante! ha! een si*nificantly *oin*

!own& This coul! e a result of the accelerate! lan! reform which has ta'en lan!

from the lar*e2scale commercial farms to other sectors i&e& the A1 an! A- farms& 6rom

- - 2- the lan! was now owne! y new farmers who are not technolo*ically

a!%ance! in the farmin* in!ustry& The occurrence of cyclones li'e 5line :aphet an!

$ama!a in - 4 an! onwar!s also cause! the pro!uction of the *ol!en leaf to remainrelati%ely low e%en thou*h there was a si*nificant increase in area plante! the

cyclones !istur e! the yiel!s&

Fig re 13" P$ot of to0a))o sa$es first 7ifferen)e

9


40/55

The tren! shown y 6i*ure 1&1 implies that the first !ifferencin* of to acco

pro!uction is nearly stationaryJ resultin* in the conclusion that pro!uction is

inte*rate! of or!er one ut - ha! the hi*hest outlier since lan! was re!istri ute!

an! the newly resettle! people ha! no a!%ance! farmin* machinery an! forex to uy

pestici!es for to acco treatment& This was then use! to initially specify the possi le

mo!el y loo'in* at the AC6 an! the AC6 plots&

+< "O:5CT

4


41/55

87!54#1

1"00"80"!0"40"#0"0

$0"#$0"4$0"!$0"8

$1"0 A %

& o c o r r e

l a & i o n

'()*+orr 'ag'()*+orr 'ag

#"48

#"47#"07

1"741"701"#1

0"440"#0 $0"08

0"5#$0"49

$0"17 0"!#$0"80

0"4!$0"4 $0"0#

0"09$0"09

$0"0 0"11$0"14

0"08$0"07 8

7!

54

#1

A+, -or di--erenced sales

87!54#1

1"00"80"!0"40"#0"0

$0"#$0"4$0"!$0"8

$1"0

. a r &

i a l A %

& o c o r r e

l a & i o n

*.A+'ag*.A+'ag

$0"04

0"!9$0"7#

$0"00 0"5#$0"7!

0"4$0"4 $0"01

0"1#$0"1#

$0"00 0"09$0"1

0"07$0"07 8

7!

54

#1

.A+, -or /di-erenced sales

The mo!el i!entifie! is an A"+ A mo!el ecause it has een !ifference! once an! itcontains a A(1) an! A"(-) process& This mo!el is an A"+ A (-11) !efine! y 7 t E

& 7t21 &447t2- R at R & at2

+< "O:5CT

O0 e)ti(e *B,9 To ma.e fore)ast of e/+e)te7 sa$es from 1 @>"

41


42/55

Single Exponential Smoothing of Tobacco Sales

Ac&%al

.redic&ed

Ac&%al.redic&ed

0 5 10 15 #0 #5 0 5

!

11

1!

#1

M a s s s o

l d i n

*i e

oo&hing +ons&an&

Alpha2

MA.32

MA/2

M /2

0"9 5

18"0190

#"1 ##

8"0745

ingle 3 ponen&ial oo&hing

Fig re 13 shows that all points !o not !e%iate much from the line of perfect forecast&

Since the points of pre!icte! %alues !o not fall away from actual %alues therefore we

can conclu!e that the mo!el suits the !ata well i&e& it has een correctly specifie! an!

can e use! for forecastin* purposes&

Fig 134 Tren7 Ana$!sis of To0a))o Sa$es

Ac&%al

,i&s

Ac&%al,i&s

0 5 10 15 #0 #5 0 5

5

15

#5

M a s s s o

l d i n

*i e

Y& 7"#1507 6 0" #07 4 &

MA.32MA/2M /2

#8"0115 "0 1#

18"07 #

*rend analysis o- &o acco sales'inear *rend Model

+< "O:5CT

Trend AnalysisFitted Trend Equation

Yt = 7.21507 + 0.320734*t

Row Period Forecast actua

4-


43/55

1 1!!2 15."53! 20.11# 2 1!!3 1#.311! 21."37 3 1!!4 1#.7700 1#.!22 4 1!!5 17.22"0 1!."75 5 1!!# 17.#"#1 20.155

# 1!!7 1".1441 1".154 7 1!!" 1".#022 21.5!1 " 1!!! 1!.0#02 1!.215 ! 200 1!.51"3 23.#!5 10 2001 1!.!7#3 20.254 11 2002 20.4344 17.5"4 12 2003 20."!24 ".1"1 13 2004 21.3505 #."!0 14 2005 21."0"5 7.33" 15 200# 22.2###

>enerally the a o%e tren! seeme! to e a *oo! pre!ictor of the response %aria le y

(to acco sales) as shown y the estimate! %alues which are within the 9 P

confi!ence inter%al thou*h we ha%e a few estimates which are much *reater than or

less than the actual %alues an! the estimates&

+


44/55

1 6i* -&1

The chart shows thatthere is a stron* linear

relationship etween area plante! an! %olume ofto acco sales& Anincrease in area plante!will result in an increasein pro!uction&

6i* -&-

The chart showsthat yiel!contri utessi*nificantly to%olume of sales&

6i* -&

This fi* shows that chan*es in a%era*e to acco price !oes not affect the %olume ofsales since to acco is a cash crop there are no retantions all that is pro!uce! is sol!&

+< "O:5CT " 4 441-

O0 e)ti(e *D,9 To 7etermine a mo7e$ on the mass so$7 *.g,& area *ha,& !ie$7

*.g6ha, an7 a(erage +ri)e an7 )arr! o t h!+othesis testing3

44


45/55

o!el Lnstan!ar!i.e! Coefficients

Stan!ar!i.e!

Coefficients t Si*&

B St!& 5rror Beta1 (Constant) 21 & 9 & 88 2--&,13 &

Area 1 ha & - & & 3 - &819 & yiel! in

'* ha& , & & 43 - & - &

a%era*e

price

7wc '*

& & & -3 1&19, &-41

a #epen!ent Karia le0 mass sol! in 1 '*s

!el Specification

D t E Q R Q1G1 R Q- G - R Q G R i

ass sol! in 1 '*sE 21 & 9 R & 3 area 1 ha R & 43yiel!('* ha) R & -3

a%era*e price(.wc '*)

'o7e$ S mmar!

o!el " " S/uare

A! uste!

"S/uare

St!& 5rror of

the 5stimate #ur in2?atson1 &99 &983 &98 &3,--1 1&933

a re!ictors0 (Constant) a%era*e price 7?C '* yiel! in '* ha area 1 ha

#epen!ent Karia le0 mass sol! in 1 '*s

+< "O:5CT

o!el !ia*onistics

#ur in ?atson statistic is 1&933 (closer to -) meanin* the mo!el is correctly

specifie!& The mo!el summary in!icates that 98& P of the !epen!ent %aria le (mass

sol!) is affecte! y chan*es in the explanatory %aria les& +t implies that the pre!ictors

of mas sol! accounts for most of the o ser%e! %ariations in y&

4


46/55

$ypothesis Testin*

$ 0 Q1 E Q- E UE Q ' E

Ks

$10 Q V for at least one

A


47/55

6i* -&4

6i* -&4 shows that the resi!uals are approximately normally !istri ute! almost

resem les the ell shape of the normal !istri ution

+n 6i* -& elow a plot of normal scores a*ainst the resi!uals was pro!uce!J the

pro a ility plot is !oes not !e%iate much from the line of est fit implyin* that the

normality assumption hol!s&

4,


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cso attachment report (2003 format)

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