Crop-livestock intensification in the face of climate change: exploring opportunities to reduce risk and increase resilience in Southern Africa using an integrated multi-modeling approach

Patricia Masikati1, Sabine Homann-Kee Tui1,Katrien Descheemaeker2, Olivier Crespo3, Sue Walker4,5, Christopher J. Lennard3, Lieven Claessens6, Arthur C. Gama7,

Sebastiao Famba8 and Andre F. van Rooyen1

1. Climate change in Southern Africa 2. Study site and approach

• To capture the impact of climate change on heterogeneous

communities we used an integrated multi-modeling

approach for ex-ante impact assessment of climate

change and adaptation strategies a particular context

• The adaptation package was purposely designed for

resource limited households under low and erratic rainfall

conditions

• The package consisted of long duration maize variety,

converting 2/3 of maize land to maize-mucuna rotation and

another 1/3 to maize under micro-dose (17 kg N/ha). About

30% of crop residues were left on the field and 70% fed to

livestock.

4. Impact of climate change and benefits of adaptation strategies

6. Recommended way forward• The tested climate change adaptations contribute to

modest income gains from intensification and

diversification

• Interventions have to go beyond food security and

climate change, and capacitate farmers towards

alternative livelihood activities

• Government and agricultural policies will have to play

a key role for promoting climate smart, resilient and

profitable agriculture, along with effective public and

private investments in research and development

• Reconfiguration pathway can be recommended

bearing in mind that proposed transitions will not only

be caused by the break through of one technology

but by sequences of multiple component-innovations

Reconfiguration pathway

3. Impact of climate change on current farming systems

5. Key messages• On average about 60% of farmers will lose to climate change without adaptation, while only about 20% will

lose with adaptation

• Although about 80% of farmers will benefit from adaptation, the magnitude of benefits is very small (net

increases of <20%)

• Looking at the different farm types, adaptation can shift up to 20% of the large farms to higher welfare

levels, but most small and medium size farms will remain below poverty line. This means that for the

majority of rural families more drastic solutions have to be sought in and beyond agriculture.

• Rainfed agricultural production supports more than 90% of

farming families in southern Africa and this important

livelihood activity is under threat due to climate change.

• Changes in historical climate show increasing temperature

trends and temperatures are projected to increase by 1-2oC,

2-3oC and 3-5oC in the near future, mid-century and end of

century, respectively.

• Although rainfall direction and amplitude are uncertain,

averages are projected to remain within or close to baseline

variability; seasonality seems to remain unchanged, however

with low confidence though there would be possible monthly

rainfall reduction at the beginning of the rainy season.

• In the agricultural sector there is limited knowledge on the

interactions between projected increases in CO2,

temperature and precipitation variations and their combined

effects on crop and animal production, food security, poverty,

on-farm income hence adding to uncertainties surrounding

future smallholder farming systems.

E I K O R E I K O R E I K O R E I K O R

N o adapt F17 F52 M U C

% Y

ield

ch

an

ge

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Median Precipitation Change (%) for Mid-

Century RCP 8.5 in southern Africa

Median Temperature Change (%) for Mid-

Century RCP 8.5 in southern Africa

Nkayi district, Zimbabwe

• Mixed crop-livestock farming systems are predominant

in Nkayi district

• Current production is very low and most families

having only about 60% of own produced food annually,

livestock play an important role

• Households were stratified into three categories based

on cattle herd size, as this influences farmers’ wealth

status and the ability to invest in alternative

technologies Small (0 cattle), Medium (1-8 cattle) and

Large (>8 cattle), proportion in community is 43%, 38%

and 19%, respectively

• Climate projections indicate a 5 to 10% decrease

in rainfall, a small yet consistent decrease at the

onset of the rainy season (October-November)

suggesting a delayed start of the rainy season

and temperature increases of at least 3°C for the

period (2040-2070)

• 5 GCMs, CCSM4 (E), GFDL-ESM2M (I),

HadGEM2-ES (K), MIROC5 (O), MPI-ESM-MR

(R) were used to assess the impact of climate

change on crop-livestock production systems

Total number of surveyed households = 160 plus

• The impacts of climate change must be understood

and integrated into any future planning in order for

agricultural production to meet food demands of an

ever-growing population.

Reconfiguration pathway : Symbiotic innovations,

which developed in niches, are initially adopted in

the regime to solve local problems. They

subsequently trigger further adjustments in the

basic architecture of the regime (Geels and Schot, 2007)

UniversidadeEduardoMondlane

• The use of low rates of inorganic and organic fertilizer and inclusion of forage legume crops of high-quality

feed biomass can substantially reduce the effects of climate change on crop and livestock production

• Adaptation reduces the proportion of households vulnerable to climate change from about 60% to 20%. Even

though up to 80% of the farms will possibly benefit from adaptation, the benefits will be relatively small (< 20%

increases in farm net returns and per capita incomes).

• The benefits also differ by types of farms. Small farms will make small benefits from climate change

adaptations (<200 USD farm net returns); while medium and better off farms can make up to 500 and 1200

USD higher per farm net returns, respectively but they also face higher risk.

1 International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), P O Box 776, Matopos, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe2 Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, PO Box 430, 6700 AK Wageningen, The Netherlands3 Climate System Analysis Group, Environmental and Geographical Science Dept., University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa4 Crops For the Future Research Centre, Semenyih, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia 5 Department of Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences, University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa6 International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), P.O. Box 39063, 00623 Nairobi, Kenya7 Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources, P.O. Box 21,9 Lilongwe, Malawi8 Universidade Eduardo Mondlane, Edificio no. 1-C.P. 257 - Maputo, Mozambique

E I K O R

Ma

ize

gra

in y

ield

kg

/ha

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Base Base

Crop production Livestock production

• Climate change does not exert a big influence on maize and milk where yields will be reduced by <10 %.

• A substantial number of farms will lose from climate change. The magnitude of losers however varies across

the different GCMs. Under worst projections (GCMR) 61% of the farms are projected to lose under current

production systems, while under higher rainfall assumptions (GCMK) only 32% of the farms will lose, for

current as well as for future production systems

• Gains and losses from climate change are limited from the perspective of entire farms. Across the climate

scenarios the changes range between -3 and 7% per capita income, -5% and 9% farm net returns and -3

and 1% poverty rates.

Mid-century temperature and precipitation

changes at Nkayi from 20 GCMs under RCP 8.5

Crop production Livestock production

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Opportunitycosts(USD/farm

)

Percentagefarmpopula on

K0ca le K<8ca le K>8ca le

R0ca le R<8ca le R>8ca le

% non-adopters

% adopters

Climate data

Historical (1980-2010):

Mid century

(2040-2070):

RCP 8.5 (CMIP5)

20 GCMs

Projected changes in

temperature,

precipitation

Crop Model

APSIM + DSSAT

5 GCMs

Farmer practice

17kgN/ha

52kgN/ha

Maize-Mucuna rotation

Effects on on-farm

maize and Mucuna

production

Livestock model

Livsim

Feed gaps

On-farm feed production

(crop residues, forages)

Effects on livestock

production (milk, off-

take, mortality rates)

Economic modelTOA-MD

HH survey data (n=160)

Relative yields

Prices, costs

Economic trade-offs of

climate change and

adaptation strategies

on entire farms

Economic impacts

Poverty ratesIncome

Heterogeneous

populations

Integrated

assessment study of

climate impact

and adaptation

0

20

40

60

80

100

Adopters Increaseinnetreturns

Magnitudeofbenefits(%)

Adopters Increaseinnetreturns

Non adopters Adopters Increased net returns per farm

Farmers who benefit

Non adopters Adopters