2005 General Conference of theInternational Risk Governance Council

Crisis Management in China:the Challenge of Transition

Dr. XUE Lan, Executive Associate DeanSchool of Public Policy and Management

Tsinghua University

September 21, 2005

Outline

Background: China in transition

The challenges: Risks facing transitional China

The system: Lessons from SARS

Responses: National efforts

Future directions

I. Background: China in transition

Economic system: Central planning=>market-based

Industrial structure Agriculture: 1980=30%=>15%=2003

Manufacturing: 1980=49%=>53%=2003

Service: 1980=21%=>32%=2003

Society Rural =>Urban (1982=20.6%=>36.09%=2000)

International linkage Economy: Self-reliant=>international trade

Society: Closed society =>highly open and mobile

Governance structure Personal charisma and authority=>

broad participation and rule of law

II. The challenges: risks China is facing

The major changes have brought tensions between manand nature, tensions between different social strata, andother tensions. Came with these tensions are the risks: The frequent natural disasters

Ecological and environmental problems

Social unrest as China is undergoing the transition

Frequent industrial accidents as the result of weak industrialand social regulations;

Public health incidents due to the weak public health systemand the distorted medical service market;

II. The challenges: risks China is facing1. Natural disasters such as flood, earthquake

2.Environmentaland ecological

problems

According to incompleteaccount, economic lossdue to environmentalpollution is about 2.1～7.7% of China’snational GDP;

economic loss due toecological damage isabout 5～13% ofnational GDP;

Together, theeconomic loss reachesabout 7～20%。

3. Industrial accidents

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2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

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4. Public health incidents, such as SARS

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5. Social unrest

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criminal andoffense casesper 10000people are onthe rise (1986-2004);

Demonstrationsrose from10,000 in 1994to 74,000 in2004.

III. China’s crisis management system:lessons from SARS

Outbreak inFoshan,Guangdong onNovember 16,2002.

Rapid spreadto otherregions inChina.

Epidemic Curve of SARS inChina

_ _ _ _

24-MAY-2003

19-MAY-2003

14-MAY-2003

10-MAY-2003

06-MAY-2003

02-MAY-2003

28-APR-2003

24-APR-2003

20-APR-2003

16-APR-2003

12-APR-2003

08-APR-2003

04-APR-2003

31-MAR-2003

27-MAR-2003

23-MAR-2003

19-MAR-2003

13-MAR-2003

08-MAR-2003

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80

60

40

20

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Epidemic Curve of SARS in China

Resource:MOH,China

Cases and Deaths of SARS (to 7 August)

Cases Deaths CFR(%) HCW(%) Death Rate

Global 8422 916 11 1725( 20) 7.13

Mainland 5327 349 7 1002( 19) 6.25

Guandong 1512 58 4 346(23) 6.25

HongKong 1755 300 17 386(22) 5.31

Taiwan 665 180 27 86(13) 6.15

Canada 251 41 17 108(43) 6.12

Singapore 283 33 14 97(41) 5.05

What does the event reveals about China’scrisis management system?

Guangdong Province

North China

2.5-2.10 4.15-5.9

200

50

Nationwide

1. Capable of dealing with familiar disasters, butinadequately prepared to deal with events with high

uncertainty

2. Inadequate public communication

6.4Other channels

3.2Internet

13.4Newspaper

31.3TV.

45.7Friends/relatives

%Channels “Internalvigilanceandoutwardcalm”

Publiccommuni-cation wasslow andlack ofsubstance.

Source: Yang Cheng Evening News , 2003-02-14

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Source: electronic version of the most important four mainstream news organizations.

3. Institutional development has not kept upwith the economic and social change

Decision making relied heavily on the top-downcommand system;

Social management relied heavily on the traditional“work-unit” system;

The potential of NGOs and other players of the societywere not well tapped;

4. Lack of coordination among differentgovernment agencies & different regions

Institutional capability in crisis management Headquarters for crisis management are set up in a reactive

mode

Lack of a standing comprehensive office or agency

Coordination between different sectors & regions Lack of communication between Beijing and Guangdong

Lack of communication of civilian and military sectors

Inter-agency coordination problems

Note：The higher score means the poorer performance. Source: PREC(2003)

5. As a developing country, capacity building inimportant areas such as public health is still a

major task

2.14Australia

2.08England

0.86United States

Non-Asian Countries

9.14Indonesia125.33Malaysia6

8.00India115.25Thailand5

7.50P.R.C.105.25Taiwan47.38Vietnam94.21Hong Kong37.00South Korea84.00Japan2

6.60Philippine72.33Singapore1

ScoreCounty/RegionNO.ScoreCounty/RegionNO.

IV. National Responses After SARS: SARS as an importantopportunity to improve China’s crisis management system

National-wide contingency plan preparation Preparation （2003年-2004年2月）

Drafting and revision (2004年3月-20051月月）

National plan was passed by State Council on 2005.1.26

Issued on national emergency management conferencebetween 2005年7月22－23 (see graph)。

Legal framework: law on emergency management

Institutional arrangement: standing governmentagencies (see Beijing Emergency ManagementCenters)

Operational mechanism:

1

25

80

National Contingency PLans

北京应急指挥组织体系北京应急指挥组织体系

市突发公共事件应急委员会办公室(市应急指挥中心)

市突发公共事件应急委员会

现场指挥部

区(县)应急委应急指挥中心

专项应急指挥部 临时应急指挥部

专家顾问组

市报警服务中心

市人防工程事故应急指挥部

（市安全生产委员会）

市安全生产事故应急指挥部

（市反恐工作协调小组）

市反恐和刑事案件应急指挥部

（市防震抗震工作领导小组）

市抗震应急指挥部

（市防火安全委员会）

市消防安全应急指挥部

（市交通安全委员会、市雪天

道路交通保障应急指挥部）

市交通安全应急指挥部

市城市公共设施事故应急指挥部

（市轨道交通建设指挥部\

市

“2008”

工程指挥部）

市建筑工程事故应急指挥部

（市森林防火指挥部）

市森林防火应急指挥部

（市防治重大动物疫病指挥部）

市重大动物疫病应急指挥部

市突发公共卫生事件应急指挥部

（市电力建设协调领导小组）

市电力事故指挥部

（市防汛抗旱指挥部）

市防汛抗旱应急指挥部

V. Future work: from reactive topreventive system

Preventive crisis management system: Risk identification and assessment

Risk communication to the public and the decision makers

Risk mitigation and management

Governance structural reform Government-NGOs-Enterprises partnerships Government reform: legislative and executive Capacity building: operational, local government Social capital: social network building and mobilization