crew v. ceq: re: global warming: 9/10/08 - response documents

8/7/2019 CREW v. CEQ: Re: Global Warming: 9/10/08 - Response Documents

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CIIAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ccsP STRATEGIcp'len'I CCSPGoal l: Iihproveknowlelge of theEarthtt ptst:andpresentclimateanr[environmbnl,2 including its.naturaluariabilily,and improve'underslunlingof lhe causesof observed $3 variuiiliE antl clitngds4 Clintateconditiottschangesignificantlyovgrthespanof weeks;,sasQns,years,dec4des,and !5 evenlongertimesoales.CCSPrese4rch,rv.illimprove'undersfandjngof naturalrisoillationsin6 clirnateontitnescales'fi'omweeksto oonturies,iucludingimprbvingandharnessingforeeastsof7 ElNifio-southernOscillation(ENSO),,alargerscaie:climateoscillationwith irnpiicationsforB resourcean ddisastertnanagement,Researchwill sharpenqu4litativeandquantitative9 understanclingof climateextremes,a.ndrvhetheranychangesin theirfrequencyoi intensitylie10 outsidetherangeof naturalvariabilify,throughimprovedobservations;analysis,andmodeling.I I Theprogramalsorvill expandobservationsrmonitoring,anddata/informafionsystemcapabilities12 andin.creaseconfidencein our understandingof Iiow andwhy clinrateis chauging,Fosteringl3 improvedinteraotionsandoonneofivitybetweenresearchand:ongoingoperationalmeasL.remeiits14 andaotivitieswill be anotherimportantaspectof theprogram'swork.

l6 CCSPGoat2: fnerove quantificatiilnof theforceshringing abo.utcltangesin the Eorthtsi; '::#:::f:l'Ji{;*Yii[ff;hangesinrqndorrvbihrrdrancruse,,andindustriaractiviriesprocruoel9 ,greenhousegases(GHGs)andaerosolsandalterthe oompositionqf the almosphere.and2A importantphysiealandbiologicaiproprties'ofthe Eal'th'ssurface,Thesechangeshavesewela!2l impo(hntclirnaticeffects,soJneof $fiich,canbeguantifiedonlypoorlyAtpresent.Researoh22 'conductedthroughtheCCSPwill addressreducingungertainfyin the'sourcesan dsinksof'23 GT-lGs;aetosolsand,theirpr:ecursors;the longtangeatmo:sp-heriotranspOrtof GHGsandaerosbjs24 andtheirprecursors;andthe interacticjrisof GHGsirndaerosolsrvithglobalclimate,ozonein the25 Lrpperandlower layersof theatmosphere,andregibrral.s-eale'airquality.It will improve26 quantificationof theinterac-lioflsirhongthecarboncycle,otherliiological/ecologiealprooesses,27 andlandcoveran dlanduseto betterprojectatmosphericconcentrationsofkey'greenhousegases28 andto sr.rpportimproveddecisionmaking.Theprogramwill alsoimprovecapabilitiesfor29 developingandapplyingemissionsseenariosin researclrandanalysis,in cooperationwith the30 ClimateChangeTechnologyProgram(CCTP),32 .CCSPGoa'l3: Reduceun,cerlainty:inprojectionsol:how tlte Earlhts climsteand reluted33 s),stensntuy change in tlrcfuture.34 Whilea greatdealis knownaboutthemechanisms'tliataffecttheresponseof theclimateSyste,rI35 to changesinnaturalandhumaninfluenceq,'manyquestionsrernainto be.addiessed.Thereis36 alsoa highlevelQftncertaitityregardihgrpreoisely'howrnuohclirnatewill changeover4lfaridin37 specificregions.r\ primaryobjectiveof theCC$Pis to developinfornrationandscientific38 capacityneeledt-osharpenourciualifative,andquantitativeunderstandingthrorighintercq.nnEctecl39 observations,dataassinrilatio4andrnodelingactivities.CCSP-supportedresearchlvill adclress40 basioclirnatesysfempropeities;rand,anumberof tifeetlbacks?'orseoondaq,changes-th+lcan41 eitherrei'nforceor dampenthe initialef.fects,ofgreenhouser,gasandaerosolernissionsand42 cliangesin landuseandlandcover.Theprogramwill alsoaldress,thEpotentialfor future43 changesin extrerne.eventsranduncertailtyiegardingpotenlialrapidor disconfinuousrchanges:iTl44 ctiingte.Th eCCSF'rvill:,alsobuildonexistingU.S.sterrgthsin clirnatereseafchand,modeling45 andenhancecapacityfor:developrnentof high-endcoupledclirnateandEarthsysternmoclels.46

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CH,AP:fER2. INTEGRATINCRESEARCIT CCSPSTRATEGICPLAN

America'secosystefisandcoaStaloceansarekeyfaclorsinestimatingfutureclimateclranAe.Aerosolpropertiesandtheirimpactson climate. Thereis a high levelof uncertaintyabouthow climatemaybeaffectedby differenttypesofaerosols,bothwarmirrgandcooling,:and'thushow olimateihange^mightbeaffectedbv their control..

2-4years

Trendsin emissiortsof ozone-depletings.tbstances,,ozonelayefrecovery,a4diurplicationsfbr ultraviolet ,ladiationexposureandclima'techarrge.

This inforrnationis key to ensurihg:tllal intefnationiilagreemerrht'phaseou tproductionofozone-deplelingsr:bslancelrarehavingtheexpectedoutcome(recover;,oftheorotectiveozone,laver).

2-4 years:

I2 Examplesof Key Re,searchActi:,ilie73 Fodus2. l; Reduceunceitainties,aboutthe sourcesrqqdsirlksof GHGqndaridp.missions,,of4 aerosolsandtheirprecursors'ancltheir c,limateqlTectsJ o Observationally-asscssedandilnprovedunCert4iltyraqgesof theradiativelbrcingof the6 oheniically-aetivegreOnhouso.gases(Chapter3,2)a8 FocLrs2,2:Monitorthe fecoveryof thgozonelayerandiinprovethe understandingoftfre9 intpriietionsof clirnatechange,ozone:depletiott,ffoposp.hericpollutiOn,ahdother.atmospher.ic.l0 issuesI I . Updatedlrendsofstratosphericozoneando-zone-depletinggasesin theatrnosphere12 (Chapter3.4)l3 ' Irnprovedquantitativemodelevaluationof thesensitivity.oftheozorlelayerto changesin

l4 atnospherictranspoftgndcompoSitionrelatedto climateohange(Chapter3.4)I5l6 Focus2,3;tlcrgaseknbwledgeof theinter:actidns;amongemissions,'lollg:rangeatm'osphefiql:l transport,andtransformationsof atmosphelicpollutants,.andtlteirresponseto airqualityi9 ttlttl;nt tli?i7r)"ir"rotterereporlrhatdesorlbeqandinre.rpletsrtre,srarus,ofttre20 cliaracteristiosandtreRdsassociatedwithannospher:iccornposition,ozonelayer21, depletion,temperature;rainfall,andec.osy-sten:exposure(Chapter3,5)22 , A polic),-relevantevdluationof theissues,relatedto interosntingntaltfansporl!,the'impact23 of air pollutantson olimate,andthgiinp.zictof climatechangeon airpollutants(Chapter24 3.s)2526 Focus2.4:Develppinformationon thecarbonoyele,landcoverarid,use,arrd27 biol.trgical/ecologicalprocessesthatcontrolthecdrboncyeleto improvequantificationof net28 ernissionsof CO2,nreth.ane,andothergreenhousegasesforsupportof pcilicyrnakingand29 ilnprovedcalbon'management

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C}IAPTER2.TN:TEGRATINGRESEARCII CCSPSTRATEGICPLAN

I Focus3,4: Accelerateincorporationof improvedknowledgeof climateprocessesandfeedbaiks2 intoclimatemodelsto redugeuncertaintyin piojeotionsof clinratesensitivity,ch4ngpsin3 climate,andrelatedconditionssuchassealeygl4 . Improvedrepresgntationofprocesses(E.g;,thermalexpansion,icesheets,\ryaterstoragg,J coastalsubsidence)in climatemodelstha!are.rOqujredforsirnulatingandprojectingsea6 leveichanges(Chapter:4.2)7 . More effectivelylink obsei:vationsapdmodelirrgadtivities(Chapters10.1,12,1,an d8 12.2)9 ! Estinratesof thespatialandtemporallimitsof predictabilityof climatevariabilityandl0 changeforcedby hunranactivities(Chapter4.2)I I ' Incorporatibnoflvatrcycleandcarboncycleprocesses,interactions,andfeedbacksinto12 an integratedEarthsystemmodeLingframewoik(Chapters5.2and7.5)l3 . Nervobservationallytestedparameterizationsfor clqudsandprecipitationprocessesforl4 r.rsein climatenrodelsbasedon cloud-rssolvingrnodelsdevelopedin parttlrroLrghfieldl5 processstudies(Chapter5.2)I6 . Na.tionalandglobalnrodelswith a coupledclirnate-landusesystem(Chapter6.4)17 ., Improvedcapability'toiytcludeandaccuratelyformu'lateterrestria.landmarinaecos.ystgm1, 8 dynarnicswithinlocrilairdLeg'ionalclimalemodels,19Z0 Focus3,5:lmprovenationalcapaqit),tosupportdevelopmentandapplicationof climate,m0dels'2l Continuesupportof thetlvohigh-qndclimatemddeJingcentersto respondto theneedfor22 scenario-driv.enelimate.modelingin supportof assessments(Chapterl0)23 . S'upportfor,ae gmrnonModelirrgInfrashucturEto optimize.rnodeling:resources aud24 enablen:reaninghrlknoivledgetransfgramongmode,lers(Chapterl0)25 . Developa progrartrof fbcused'nrqdelintercomparisonsandconductevaluationand26 analysisof themodelsensitivities'ofmajopU,S,models'aswell as:modelvalidationwith27 availableobservatjonaldata(Chapter:l0)ZB29 CCSPGo.at4: Lltttlerstqhdand predicl tlte sensilivitl,und adoptability.ofdilferent naturul snd30 nrgrtgged.ecos-ystemsund liunun systemsta'climateand relatetl'glbbalchungcs,31 Seasonalto annualvariabililyin ciimEtehasbeen.connectedto impactson almosteveryaSpectof32 humanlife; rigiiculturalyields,waterresout:ces,renergydetnandandsupply;transportation,priee33 fluctuations,{isheryyields,forestfires,humanhealthandwelfare,andtnanyothers,Long34 timescalenaturalclimatecyclesarrdhuman-inducedchangesin climatecoulclhaveadditional35 effects;inc.ludingalteringthe lengthsof growingseasons,thesustainabililyof waterresouroe36 lranagernentsystems,thege.ographicalrangesof plantandanimal,.gpec-ies"biodiversity,37 estuarinearrdoceanproductivity,andthe incjdeneeof disturbance,regimesthat;affectboth38 naturalandhurnan-madeenvironments'.Fotentialbenefrtsandriskshavebe-enidentifiedfor:ra39 rtrurberol systernsan dactivities,Improving,ourabiliry,to assesspotentialvulnerability.and40 resilienceto futurevariationsandchangesin climaieandenviroirmentalconditionscouldenable4l govemments;businesses,andcommutritiesto reducernegativeippactsandseizeopportunitiesIo-42 benefitfrom changingconditions.byadaptinginfrastructure,aotivities,andplans,4344 Thepotentialeffestsol'climatevariabilityandcharigeon ecosystemsandhuinanactivitiesrvill '45 not bedeterminedsolelyby theirsensitivityandadaptability,butaisoby multiple,cumulative46 interactionsalnongphysical,ecolqgiqal,economic;,anclsocialconditionb,Fo rexarnple,some

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CIIAPTER2. INTEGRATINGRESEARCH CCSPSTRATEGICPLANI2.3Aa567q

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' Make integrateduseofiinfrastructure,especiallyfor surface-basednetworks,airbornecampaigns,andship.ba.sedexpeditions.to boihre{ucecostandmaximizereturnbyenhanoingtheavailabilityof integratecldarasets,' Assurecollllllondataformats,andinteroperabiodatasystemsl'sothatscientific"management,andpolicy-orienteddatauserscaninteglatedesireddatasetswiihrninimaldifficulty' Collaborateon calibratiohsystelnsandrelevantintercomp-arisons:jtobesurethatrelatedobservingcapabilitycanbe consistently,tiedlo rlatedmeasurementactivitiesandtoreoognizedlaboratorystandards' Integrateprocess.orientedsurface,and,airborne-basedstudiesAndnetworkobservationswithcalibrationandvalidationactivitiesfo rsatellite'programs' DevelopintegratedrlodelingframeworkstlratWill enhanpeoppoftunitiestbr interchanseof conrponentsandintercomparisonof rnodelresults(bothwittrotr.t"imoo"rr;;;il"'observat ions)' Issuejoint solicitatiorrswheretheyaretheop-timalrvayto engagetheresearchcommunifyin addressirigissuesof,scientific,imppftance.

TheccsP will providea var:ieryof synthesisandassessmentproductson anongo,ingb-asisasdiscttssed'Theseproductswill supportbothpoliqyhakingandadaptive.managemeni.meoverallapproachtq dec.isionsupportis describedin Chapiert t o{ilil,qntqii.Thjsseptionintegratestheearlierdiscrissisriin this.chapter:.and'summar:izesthesynthesis,andassessmentprodtrcts,thattheCCSPrvill generate,Th e1990ClobalChangeResearchAct providestheoverallframeworkfo rtheconductandmanagementof theinteragencYresearcliprpgranio'i climateairOgtotjotohangr,u,',0S.Jio, f OOof theactdefinesrequirements{br scientifioassessments,''lq uo.iplywith,thi terrnsof SectionI 06' theCCSPwilt produceassessirlentsthatfocuses:ona variefyof scienceandpoiicyissriesimportantlgr'pLrblicdiscrrssionand.decisionmak'ing.Theassessmentswill u" cooipurJaoisyntheses,reportsiandintegratedanalysesthattheCCSPwill completeovertfra:"i*i+y.urr.Thesubjectsto be addressedarelistedin Table2-1:Thisapproach.takesaceount,oftheneedforassessmentson thefull range.oIissuesspanningal lCCSpobjectivesandWill,prov.ide,a"snapshot"of knorvlcdgeof the environinenta landsocioeconornicaspectsof ilimate:variabiliffandchange,Theproductsliljlppof speoificgroups:ordecisioncontextsacross,rhefull Cgeol'issuesaddressedby theCCSp,andwhereappropiiate,fheCCTp,IFOOTNOTE2: "On a periodicbasis(not lessfrequentlythanevery4 years)theCouncil,thror:ghthe Comrnittee;shallprepareandsubrnitto.thepresidentanotnecongls, uo 'assessmentr{hich:

l) Jntegrates,evaluates,andinterpretsthefindingsofthe Programald discussesthespientific uncertaintiesrassociatedwith guchfindirrgs',2) Analyzeslhe'eflbcts.ofglobatc.hangeon thenaturalenvironnrent;4griculture,energypqoductionanduse,.landandwatefresorrrces,transpodation,hurnanhealthandwelftr"human5ocialsystems,andbiologicaldiversity;an d F'rY'|rv"srel- 'AGtrNCYCONCURRENCEDRAFT 43 DOIIQTCITE ORTQUOTE

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CHAPTER 9, HUMAN DIMENSIONS CCSF STRATEGIC PI,AN

1 reactingto his environment.Thecomplexinteractionsof rnultipleenvironmentalstressorson2 humanactivitiesmustbeexamined,It iswidely acknowlodgedthathumandimensionsresearch3 hasspecialchallengesassociatEdwith thecross-disciplinary.natureof itstopios.andwith themix4 of qualitativeandquantitativedataandapalysesemplqyedin its pursuit.6 Acrosstherangeof humandirnenslorisresearchthqre:isa particularlystrongneedfor the7 integrationof social,economic,andhealthdatawith environmentaldata,suchintegrationreqr-rires8 datafiom physical,biological,social,andhealtltdisciplines,orrcompatibletemporalandspatial9 scales,to supportthesynthesisofdatafor researchan dto supportdecisionmaking.Thereis ap10 especiallycriticalneedl'orgeo-referenceddata.l l12 A broadresearchagendafor humancontributionsandresponseshasbeenideirtifiedin'aseriesofl3 nationalandinternationalreports,includingtheassessmentreportsof thelntergovernmentall4 PanelonClirnateChange(IPCC,200la,b, c, d) anda seriesof focusedreportsanclmonographsI 5 fromtheNationalResearchCouncilOIRC,I 999a,e,200lc,e),TheNRC reportClimatbChangeI 6 Science:An Analysisof Sonte.KcyQuestionsconcludedthat:"In orderto addressthe17 eonsequences,ofolimateohangeandbetterservetheNation'sdosisionmakers,.the,research'I 8 entet'prisedealingwith environnrentalchangeandenvironrneutlsocief!interactionsmust,be,I 9 pnhanced."Suchanenterpr.ise,shouldinclude,(c.;,supportof interdisciplirraryresarchthat20 couplesphysicai,qhernibal,biological,-andhumansystems"OIRC,2001a).Thischapteldraws21 from the-sereportsandfrom priorityareas.identifiedll1'the researc|cominunitytlrroigh .federal22 researchprograms.z524 T\r,ooverarchingqriestionsfoi researchon thehumancontributionsandresponses,toglobal25 changeat'e:26 ' Howclohuntansan dltunransocietiesdrivechangesin theglobalenvirorrment?

27 r Holvdo humanspreparefor andrespondto globalenvironmentalchange?2829 1'hesequestionsfian'lethe,humanc{imensionsresearchoutlinedin-thefourkeyquestionsthat30 lollorv.JI32

Questisri9.1: Whdt are',themagnitutles;interrClationShips,and sighifiCancegf'th6 priiirgry lrumantliivbrslof anfl:: fheir ;potential,inrpaqfonlrenviionrnentalchange?3334 STATEOFKNOWLBDGD35 Humandriversof globalenvironmentalchangeincludeconSUmptionof'energyandnatufal36 resources'technologicalandec-onomic,c'hoices,oulturg,and,iristitlttions,,Thebffectsof'these3"1 driversareseenin populationgroMh andmo./ement,ehangeEin cons.umpti.gn"de,oi38 reforestation,land.useohange"and,tolemtionorregultitionof pollution.TheIPCC(|PCC,200039 b,2001a;boc, d), theNRC (lrlRC,1999a'200ta)qndshrdiespleparedasQontribution5to the

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tl181920212223242526272829?n3I331lJ+ '3536ai

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CHAPTER 9. I{UMAN DIMENSIONS CCS,PSTRATEGIC PLANNationalAssessment0\lASl 2000,2001)Iravesummarizedsocialsciencsresearchon theEedriversin thespecificcclntextof climatechange,.andthe.Internationall{umanDinrensionsProgrammehascontributedto thislrodyof knorvledge.Forexample,researchhaspointedtopopulationchanges(includingarragi'ngpopulationin theUnitedStateswiflr rapidgro*th ofhumansettlcments,espeeiallyin theSouth,Weqt,andcoastalareas)that,haveimpactedconsumptionpattemsandotherdriversof globalenvironmentalehange,Researclrintotirehumandiiversol"globalchangehasfocusedon changesin landuseandenergyuse.But thereis alsoa lrowing bodyof rvorkon fundamentalsocioeconornicprocessesthatdiivehurnanuseof theenvii'onryent(e.!.,dhangesin populationdensities,advancesin technology,theemergenceofnew institutionalstructures).Furthernlore,currentresearohon sustainabili6yentphasizesthe rolesplayedby societiesin drivingglobalenviionmentalchange.Recentresearchhasalsoirnprovedour understandingof manyof tlrefactorsthataffectenvironrnentallysignificantconsumptionatthehousehold'level.Importantadvanceshavebeenmadeinunderstandingthe effecisof econonricffansfo'tmation,for instance,howthegro:vfihof,the'service.sectorin urbanareascontributesbothto socialwealthandvulnefabilityof hutnansettlements;'sinrilarly,reseal'chorilechnologicalchangehashelpedto identifytrenaSin innovtrlion,efficiency,apclexpandedliv.ittg,51n,l6urds;andtheirimplicationsfor ilaturalanddepletabler-esources,ILLUSTRATIVtr RESEARCHQUESTIONSResearehquest'ionsrelatedto h.umandriversspan:arange,oftopics,including:rWhatare-thekeyprocessesandtrendsassoqiatedrvith popuiationglo'w4handdemographicchange,manegementofnaturalresources(includinglandandrvater),thedevelopmentof'advancedtechnologies,and.tradeandglobalecononticactiviry?How Qaninrprovedunderstandingof theseissuesbetrsedto,improvescenariosandplojectiousof globalchange?Whoar:ctheprincipalactors,bothindit idualsandinstitutions,,andwhatarethekeyfactors,suchashouspholels;uarkets,propertyandfandtenttre,,atrdgoverntnenlpolioiesandpraotioes?:Howc.anresearphersdevelopappropriatescenariosdndlink,thenrto decisionmakingframervorkp?'Iiowcanstakehglderinvolvsmentbeusdto lelp determinethereseaichagenda?.Inaddition,.qUestionsspgcifictOpopulationandtechnologicalchangean dthe,roleof tradean deconomicactivilyinclude:. Populationgrorvfhand demographicchangcI-lowdo populationgr,pwth.oomposition,distribution;arrddynamios(fertiliry,,mortality,rnigpation;andhousehOldclhange)affectthesustainabil[f-yof,eriergy,andlanduse,economicactivity,landcover.theclimate,sysibrr,andotherglobalenvironmentalsystems?FIowis therelationshipbetweenpopulationdynanricsandenVironmentalclrangeaffectedby thescaleat.whichpopulation.environnientallinkagesaremeasured(e.g.,theplot,thecornmunity.the,state;theregion,the,nalion)?

Horvdcip-eoplsuseinformation.andformpgrceptionsabor,rfpotentialor actualglobalenvironmentalchanges,along'"vithothersociai,,eoonoinic:,,4lrdpolificalcot.rs.iderations,to rrakedecisions,aboutproduction,oonsumption(iucludinguseof naturalresources)andmobility (includingmigration)?

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CHAPTDIT 9. HUI!{AN T'IMENSIONS CCSP STRATEGIC :PLAN

I -: Wlat arethe rolesplayedby institutionsin structr.rringthetiCtivitiesthatdri.veglobal2 environmentalchange?3 ' Technologicalchange4 - Whatarethedriven,especiallyinstihrtjonalfactorsthatinduoetechnological5 innovationandadoptionof,newteclrnologies?Whatinfluencesthotransfercif6 technologyfromregionto regionorcountryto country?Howdoestechnological7 inrrovationandtransfeiimpactsystemiqenvirorunentalchangeandftgr,rreinB adaptationaridrnitigationstrategies?9 - I{ow canresearchthafidentifiesviabletechnologyoptionsbemodeledaspolicy10 opt jons?I I Whatcanbeprojectedaboutthe ef'fectiveness,cost,anderivirorimentalandhealth12 effectsof alternativeenergygndmitigationtechnologi.es,including,sequestration13 opt ions?14 How canthis researchcontributeto efforfsto-dev.elopmitigationteohnologyoptions

l5 b.y,for cxample,placingvalueso"nsuchitems'ras'teppo,rarycarbonstorageandthe16 availabilityof limitedresourcesSuchas'landandwater?17 . Tratle an dglobnlecorlomicactivityII Wltat influencesthe nrovemntofgoodSand,si:rvices,domesiicatlyandfrom onel9 countryto another?Howdoestnovgmer1tof,gaqdsandservleesinrpactrglobalZ0 environmentalchange?'Zl Howdo operationalanrJtechnologicalchangesaffecteponornicproductivitlrandenergyrise?23 L-Iowareffowth in econonricproductivityandinoreasing.energyus-erelatpdto24 activitipsthatinfluenceclirnatechanger5uchasemiss!ons,Qfrcontanrinailtsandchanges25 in landuseandpotentialinfluencessuchaswateruse?2627 RESEARCHNEEDS28 Keyteedshavebeenidentified,includiirg:,29 . Developmentof aconngctionto decisionsupportcapabilitiesby improvingthescientific30 informationthathelp-sto inf'ormthepolicypfocess.3I . Developmentof nrorecoherentahdplausiblescenarioswith projections,ofsocial,32 economic,ar,dtechnologyvariab,les(here,linllagestQoutputsfiom theClimateChange33 TechnologyProgram(CCTP)will bema$e).34 i 'Developmentof integratedassessnrentmqdelswith the,abiiitytq beftgr,airalyzethe35 qffcts(social,economic,andhealtli),ofmeasqresdireotedat roQgcihg:gpdenhbu5.qgas36 emissionsandthatincludenon-markefsubmodelsfor the-analysiso, fquarititativeand37 qualitativedatarelatedto humanhealthandwell.being.38 . Dcvelopntentof iritegratedassessmentmodelsthaf,i.ntroducenewenergyqpdcarben.39 ,sequesirationtechn'ologies(inoludingteclrnologiesuncler.considbratibp'in;tlreCCTPJand40 incorporatenev('know.ledgeaboutinn,ovationanddiffusion.4l . Developrnentof thecapabilityto studytheeconomicandtradeeffects:,ofvarious4? mitigationoptions'thatdifflerin complexvrrays,bothwithin andamongeountries,43 includingbroadpolicyapproaches(e,g,;emissionstargets,technologysubsidies,

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C}IAPTER 9. TIUMAN DIII,IENSIONS CC.SPSTRATEGIC PLANI voluntarynationalgoals)andnr0aiisof implernentation(e.g.,voluntaryprogfams,2 incentives,taxes,capandtradesystems,andquantityconstraints),3 c Assessmentof tlrefUllpostsandbEnefits(inoludingproductivityimpacts)of4 environmentalpolicyard teclrnologychoices(mitigationandadaptation)thataffect5 trumanwell-beingat differentscales,includingthcindividualor householdlevel.67 MILESTONE$,PRODUCTS,ANDPAYOFFS$ ' Researchin thisareais expectedto improveourunderstandingof howhumansocieties9 driveglobalenvironmqntalcharrge(jnputson humandriversof changeaiereguiredfo-rl0 Ecosystems,WaterCycle,andCarbonCycleresearoh).Availablcinfbmrationwill beI I reas.sessedfor its relevance,andcontiibutionto'iulerdisciplinarysftrdiesof human-in{uc'ed12 environmentalchange[lessthan2 years];l3 " Scenarios,wjllbestrengthenedby an impfovedunderstandingof theinterdependenoel4 anongecononiicgrowth;populationgrowth,composition,distiibution,anddynamicsl5 (includingmigration);,energyconsumptionin differentsectors(e.g.,electricpowerl6 generation,transportation;residerttialheating.andcort-ling).;iidVancemeinSin iechnologies;,17 andpollutantentissionsflessthan4 yearsf.(abenefittoihe CarbonCycleresearchI 8 efforts).l9 ' Evalurationswill be.developedof theeconomicopportunitiesto mitigateclimatechang620 throughirrtplementationof actionsto reducegreenhousegasemissionsor increase2l sequestrationin theagriculniralaindforestrysectors[2-4year.s].22 ' Structuredmethqdswill be developedtlr define.theconnectionsandtradeoffsamong23 econontiodevelopment,technologicalchange,andhuinan,well-beingat multiplescalesand24 atthe intersectionof complexirtsgitutionalariangements[beyond4 years],z526 HilmanContributionsandResponses,productsivill provideneededinputstotheCarbonCycle27 and,Land-Use/Land-CoverChangeelementsof theplanth4t atc relatedto changesin energy28 consuinption,lechnologyutilization,and adaptationpolicies,(seealsoquestion9.2).2930

arJI32 STATEOF'IO{OWLEDGE33 Forthepurposeof thisquestion,'igiobalenvironmentalvariabiiityairdchange"includesclimate34 variabilityand.changeandrelat"ed,sealevelrise.Theseenvironmentalchangesneedto beanalyzed35 :inthecontextofothernatural.andsocialsystemskesses,.snchasland:usealrdland-covefehange,36 populationchangesandmigrations,andglobaleconomicrestructuring.Therehasbeensiglificant37 progressin analy2ing4ndmodelingregionalvulnerabilit iesanclpossibilit iesfb radaptation,38 includingiu thecontextof nrultiplestresses,Progresshasbeen,madein understandinghow

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CHAPTER 9, }IUII{AN DII\{I}NSIONS CCSP STRATEGIC PLANI socieqvadaptsto seasonalclimatevariabilityand,by cxtension,hol it mayadaptto potential2 longertennclimatechal:ge(IPCC,?001b).a'

4 Thesfateof gl'obalchangeimpac.tandadaptationresearchvaries,dependingon tlrenatureof fhe5 impact,thescaleof the.analysis,.andtheregiono'fthe:world.Formost5;peg,ofimpacts,this6 fieldof inquir;,hasadvancedfrom rnodelingdireetimpactson natural'andhun:ansystems(e.g,,7 crops,forests,waterflows,c0dstalinfrastructure)to,analysesofrhowpeoplemighialterspeciFic8 activiriesln reactionto changingclimate,'andfor severallypesof impacts,anticipatoryresponsest havebeeninvestigatedaswell. Forexample,withrespectto sealevelrise,the directimpactsandl0 possible.responsesareftirly rvellestablishedfor tlreUnitedStates.However,a highpriority fori t research,concernstheenvirontnentalimpactsof adaptivereSponseqin thefuture.12t3 On aglobalscale,considerablegapsexistin understanding ,modlingandquantiffingthe14 sensitivityandvulnerabilifyof humansystemsto globalchangeandmeasuringthecapacityofl5 humansysternsto adapt,For instanee,liftle is knolvnabouttheqffectivenessof applyingl6 radap-tationexprienceswithpastandcun'entclimatevariabilityandextremeeventsto therealm17 of elimatechangeadaptation;norabouthowfiis inrformationcouldbeused'to'improveestiryrates,1'8 of thefeasibility,effectivenqss,andcostSandbenefitsof adaptationto iong"termohange.Gapsl9 alsoexistin understatrdingdifferencesin adaptivecapacityacrossregionsof theworldand20 differentsocioeconomicgroups(IPCC,2001b).AlsolesswellknoWnarethb:rolesthat21 insfitLrtionalcharrgeandconsumptiorlpatfernsin thg fulurewill piay in thecapaeityof societyto22 preparefor andrespondto globalchanges:24 IILUSTRATIWRESEARCHQUESTIONSZs . WhatIbctorsdetennine:lhevulnerabilityof hunransysiernsto climatevariabilityand26 change,ahdhowc41vulnerabilitybereduced?Z7 ' Wht! facto-rsdeterrninethevulnerabilityof naturdlsystemsto the adaptiventeaturesfh4t28 peoplemayimplementin responsgto,globalolange?Zg ' LJoware,slimnlsvariability,,trendsin climate,andsealevelriselilcelyto afl-ectresource30 Inanagement,(e,g,,wgter,fish,agricul[tre,fofFstry,tran.iportbtion,,energysupplies),3'l ur:banplanning;coastalzonefiianagement,andthee'ffectiveness6f federalenvironmental32 arrdinfrastructureprograms?33 ' Whataretheeobnomicandsocialcostsandbgnefrtsof curientclimatevariabiiity,and34 longer-termclimatechangeandw.hatarethemarketand,iro-n-markettradeofFs,f'easibility;35 andeff'ectivenessof poteniialadaptationand/ormitigationoptions?36 i Florvandto lvhatextqrrtmightinstitutions,(e.g;,markets,laws,properfyrights;fOtmal37 organizations)beadjusteclin responseto global.change,and'whatwouldbetheprobable38 socio-econotrricbenefitsandcostsassociatedwith rral


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I pr:ocessthatthe infbrmationis needed.Thisworkwill be collaboratedwith theDecisionSupport2 Resourcedevelopmentdescr:ibedin ChapterI 1.34 MILESTONES,PRODUCTS,ANDPAYON'F'S5 r Researchonthesequestionswill pnablethedevelopmentof assessmentsof tlrekin.dpf '6 knorvledgeandinfonnationneededby differe-ntdecisionmakers4ndstakeholder:sin order7 to enhancedecisionrnakingassociatedwitirclimatechange,andwill proclucedecision8 supportresources[beyond4 yea;g].g . Researchcenterswill beexpeotedto facilitateintqrhctionsalnongresearchersandrelevantI 0 decisionmakers'andstakeholdersflessthapr2yealsJ;provide'educationaloppor.tunitiesl. l for U,S.shrdentsandfacultyflessthan2 years];increas;eunderstandinglcifthe typesof12 informationneededby decisionmakersflessthan2 years];developtoolstlratpeople,I3 organizations,andgovetnmentscanuseto betterunderstandtherisksassoc'iat'ed*tithl4 climatevariabilityandcharrgeandtheoptionstheylraveto addressthoserigks[2-4I5 years];andincreasebasicunderstandingofdecisionmakingprocessesassociatedwith16 climatechangeandvariability[2-4years].1V ' In additlonto theadvancementof basicunderstandingandmodelihgof doois,ionmaking;18 the,progranrexpectsto developimprovedrnodelingframeworksfhat,betterlihkgenerall9 circulation,ecological,andeconomiomodels,oftheagriculturalandforestrysectors[2-420 yearsl.2l ; Reconrrnendationswill bedevelopedforproducing,contmunicating.anddisserninatirig'22 climateinfbrmationandits,associated..unoertaintiesto resourqemanagers(9.g,.,.farnre.rs,23 florest]andowners,droughtpolicyplanners,waterutilities)apd,'urbanplannefsat localto24 nationallevels.lntegrationrvithDecisionSupporteffortswill be importantasWill25 draving on comnrunicationanddisseminatibntoolsdevelopedin'theWaterCy,oleelepent26 [2-4years].2728

Qucstion.9,4:What.irg the potenlialhumanhealtheffects.ofglobalenvironrnentalchauge,and what climate;socioeconomic;ani! clivironmentalinforrnationis:ncetledto assess,the cgmulativerisk to healthfrom these,effects?2930 STATE OFKNOWLEDGE3l It is weli establishedthathurnanheiilth:islinkedto environnrentalconditions,andthatchange5in32 then4ftrrhlenvirohmentmay havesubtle,or dramatic,effeitson health.Timely knowledgeof33 theseeffecJsmaysuppon.ourpublichealthinfrastructurein devisingandimplementingslrategies31 to compensateor lespondto theseeffects.Overthe.pastdecade,severalresearchandagenda,35 seftingexerciseshave.qalledfor continuedandexpandedresearchanddevelopmentofrnethodsih35 Jhisarea(WAG,1997;NRC.7999a,d, 200.1c;EHP,2001;IPCC,2001b),Giventheoompler37 interaetionsarnongphysical,biological,andhumansystems,thisresearchmustbe:highly3B interdisciplinarl,,well integrated,andspanthebreadthfrornfuirddmgntalrEsearchto:operations.39 A multi-agencyirrterdiseiplinaryrcsearcheffortto examinethelinkrigesaciossthesesectorsis in

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placewith researcl'lfocusingonglobalanddevelopingcouniryimpacts,andon theeffeotsBfsimultaneousenvironmentalandeponomicshifts.onhumanhealthanclwell-being.Federallysupporte{researchhasthusfarprovidedinforrrationon a broadrangeof healiheff'ectso1'globalchange;includingtheadvelseeffectsofozone,afmosphericparticlesandaeroallergens,ultraviolet(U\l rad.iation,vector-andwater-bornediseases.arrdheat-relatedillnesseslseeFiggre,9-2).Researchoontinues'toimproveunderstalrdingof thepotehtialimpactof climatevariabilityon certaininfecliousdiseases,andresearahersaredevelopingandevaluatingtqolsandinfonnationpfoductsfor anlicipating'andtnanaginganysuchimpactsthatcapitalizeon theenorrnousprojectiQtrsaffordedby rvealthandthepublichealthinfrastrucrurerLlowever,rnaly questiqnsrernainuiranswered.[Figure 9-2:Anticipatedcausalpathways.cilpublichealthirnpactsflom olimatechange.Formoresourceinformation,seeAnnexC,ANNEX C VERSION:Figure 9-2:Ahticipated'caLrsalpathwaysof publicheahhimpactsfromclimatechange.Souroe:adaptedfromPatzan dBalbus;1996:Methoilsfo rassgssingpubliohealthvulnprabilifyto climatechange;ClimateResearch,,6;1.l,3-125.]ILLUSTRATTVE RESEARCII QUESTIONS' What.arethe iinpdclsof c.hangesin',waterquantityandquality,temperature,.ecos)istems,,landuse,andclimateon infectiousdiseaseandlvhatis the retativeimportanceot ihespimpactsconrparedtq othersocioeconomicandtechnologicalfactors?

' Whatarethe irnpactsof atrnosphericandclimaticchangeson therhEalth,ef,fec tsassociated. withanbientai rqualityan dUV rudiation?. lV-hatarethe healtheffectsandeffectivqpreparedness4ndresponsestrategiesassociated,with ten:peratureextremesandwith extrmweatherevents?' Whatarethe bestmethodsfor assesSiqgknown4ndpotentialclimate-relatedheblthimpactsandfor developinganclevaluatingusefultoolsand informationprocluc.tsto, enharrcepubliohealthandsupportdecisibnmaking?. Horvcanwe improvethecapacityof publicrhealthandqocietalin{lastrurctuteto p1e-vent,detect,ahd effectivelyrespond.to healthimpactsthatmay be associatedwithclinratechange?. ,FIowcanthe incorporationofhealtlrimpactsandtrendsintoclirnatecihangescenariosimprovetoolsfor decisionmakingat varioustimbscales?

RESBARCHNEEDSResearchneedsinclude:' Woflcon improvedunderstandingof thehealtheffectsof UV radialion,includihgexposureacrosslegions,andpopulations,riskawareness,andearlydetection.' lnitiationof a temporally'undspatiallycompatiblelong-termfreld,study,empirichl\ analysis;andintegratedmodelingeffur.tof thegihysical,-biologicaland:socialfactors

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C}IAPTER 9, HI.I]\,IANDTMENSIONS CCSP STRATEGIC IILAN

1 affectingtheimpactof climatevariabilifyandchangeonpublichealthissuesoflnatjonal2 importance.,3 . Researchontheclimaticeftbctsof'temperatureon air quality,particularlyin uibanheat4 isl?ndsandother,regionalsettings,,andthepotential.healthconsequences.5 r Researchon theeffdetof seaSonalte interannualelimatevariationonpublichealth,6 especialtyat a regionalscale,andthpintegrarionof this informationintodecisionmaking7 procossos;8 . Research,onpreventingaridr'educingtheadversehealthhtrpactsof extreme.rveatlre r9 events." l 0 . Researchonpreventionandcontrolof infeetiousdise-asesflrqtrnightincreasein :incideirceI I asa resultof climatechange.12 . Resgarchori the regionalcontrolandtreatrnent.ofvector.andwater-bornediseases(this,I3 lvork shouldbe linlcedto theEcosysten:rsresearcharea).l4 '. F.conomicarlalysisof theprcvention,control;.andtreatmentstrategiesfor porcmialpublic

l5 healthirnpactsassociatedwithclimatevariabiliryan dchange,16 . rstudieson thscostsandbenefitsto publichealthof mitigationstrategiesfor greenhpuse17 gasemissions.IBl9 A parallelneedexiststo developadditionalappropriatetoolsdn drnethoclsfo rassessing,and20 adaptingto potentialhealthoutcomes;andfur evalilatingtheimpagtof research,theeffectiveness2l of Earlhscienceinformationandploducts,thernethodsfbr cor-nmunicatingthat information ,and22 thesystematioictentificationofknowledgegapsandfeedback!o theresearchcginmunitiqs.2324 MITESTONES, PRODUCTS,Atr{D PAYOFFS25 Productsfrom this areaincludeoperationaltools,researchto supportinnovative:instinrtional26 ari?ngemenfsandprocesses,andreseal'Chresultsthatmay berusedby,decisionmakers.Expeotgd2' l lnilestones,products,andpayoftginclude:28 . Additionaltools forpreventingandnranagingthepublichealthtlireatof infectious29 diseases[2-4years],30 . Assessmentsof thep-otentialhealtheft'ectsof comtrinedexposnresto clinraticandother31 environmentalfactors(e,g.,.airpollution,an dinclrtdinginputfrorntheA.tmospheric32 Compositionresearchelemerrt)[beyond4 years].33 " A multi-agenoyjoint awardlor competitivemultiyeargranlsto suppoitiesearchon34 climatevariabilityan dhealth[2-4yearsandbeyond].35 . The nextphaseofhealthsectorassessmentsto understartdthepotentialcohsequericesof36 globalchangefor hurnanhealthir rtheUnitedStates;especial[ylbr at-riskclemographic37 andgeographiq,subpopulations[2-4years].38

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CHAPTER 9. HUMAN DIMDNSION$ ccsP STRATEGICFLAN

National an d [nterrational Phrtnz3 lllte studyof hurnaneontributionsandresponsesto globalchangewithintheClinrateChange4 ScienceProgram(CCSP)hastiesto a numberof nationalandinternatibnalprogramsbeyond5 thoserepresetrtedamongtheCCSPmeruberagencies,irrcluding:thelnternationalHuman6 DinrerrsionsProgram,theIntergovemmentalPanelonClimateCliange,theWorldHealth7 Organizatiolr,thePanAtnericanFlealthOrganization,EnvironnientCanada,HealthCanada,the8 ClirnateChangeTechnologyProgram,theNationalResearchCouncil,theU.S.Departlrentof9 Transportation,theCenter!for DiseaseControlandPierrentjon,theNati'onatInstituteofl0 EnvironmentalHealthSciences,theNationalInstitutets-rChildHealthandFlumanDevelopment,1'l theNationalInstituteof AllergyandInfectiousD'iseases,theU.S,CensusBureau,theBureauof12 LaborStatistics,atrdotherfederal4genciesandprcl$rams,andto theInternationalResearchl?

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instituteforClimatePrcdictionandthe.Inter-Arlericaninstitutefor Global,ChangeResearch(seeChapterl5). Collaborat'ionsbetweenthe,fedeialagenciesirivolvedin globalehangeresearohandtheabo-ve-mentionedorganizationsinc-ludec^o'sponsorshipof scientificworkshopsandconferefices,effortsto setscientificagendapin researihafe,a5of mutualihtereslandcollaborative,assessrneni!of thestateof knowledge,Furtherntore.nutnerousqollaborativeresearchprojectsbetweenscientistsii r the UriitedStatesandothercountriesareunderg,ay.As:eXaurples,U.S.scibntists,co.llaboratervithdevelOpingcountryscientiststo analyzecopirfgsfia{egiesandtheuseof olirnate,infsrmatrionin theface,of/ear-to:!e&rolirnatevaiiabili . ln aclditiori,U.S,regearchersin thefieldof eeonomi'csandotherareasassociatedwithcreatingdecisionrnakingfr:ameworkscollaboratethroughinstitutionssuchasStanfordlJniversity'sEnergyModelingForum(EMF).For example,'an,annualEMF meetingofspecialistsin integratedass.ssmentmodelirrgandrel3teddisciplines;sr.rchas,climatescience,biology,andhealth,hasgenerateda greatmanysuccessfulresearchpartnershipsacrossbothCountriesanddisciplines.ThescientificcomrnuniLyhascalledforstrengtheninginternationalcooperationanclcoordiiiationr'elatedto humancontributionsandresponsesresearchlparticLrlarlyii r the.areasof the irnpaqtsofclirnateoirhnmanwi:llhreandresourcemanagemenlvulnerabilityassessments,andadaptationresearch.Progressdependson advcincesin thesbZireas,aswellas,inimprovementsin olinratemodel'ingobservations,andourunderstandingof theintegratedclimatesystemandassociatedsocioeconotnicandenvironrnntafresp.onses.Cooperationshouldincludethecollectionandarchivingo[socialancleconomicdata,aswellasexchangingmethadologiesandresearchinsights.

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CHAPTER11.I'ECISIONSUPPORTRDSOURCESDEVELOPMENT CCSPSTRATEGTCPLANCHAPTER 11. DECISION SUPPORTRESOIJRCESDEITELOPMENT

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Thischapterlscontents,. .TheRoleof DeciiionSupport, , : .Goall: Preparescientificsynthesesandassessmentsto supportinfor:mEddisouqsionofclinratevariabilityandchangeisSues,bydecisionmakers,siakeholders,thenredi4andthegeneralpublic, :Goal2: Developresourcesto supportadaptivemanagementandplanningfor respondingto climatevariabitityandClimato,change;,andtransitiontheseresouroesfrom researchtooperationalapplication.Goal'3:Developarrdevaluatembthodsto gupportclimatechange:'policymakingthroughintegr.atedpnalyses'andsperr4.rigevaldations,anddemonstrate,s-e1is1s6nr.etl1odswitn,laseshidies.DeeisionSupportMan

In orderto fulflll thescientificassessmentrequirernentsof the1990GtobalChqngeResearchAqt(P.L.l0l-600r, andto gnhancetheutilityof:lheextensiveboclyof observatiolrsandrcsearchfindingsdevelopedby theU,S,GlobalChangeResearchProgram(USGCRP)since1990,TheClimateChangeScienceProgram(CCSP)is adoptinga sb.rjcilredapproaclrto match,coordinate,andextendresourcesdevelopedthroughtheresearchaotivitiesto thesupportofpolicyandadaptivenanagemgnt:decis,ibnmaking.The,usGCRphasmacleverylargeinvestnrentsin researchandgbservingpfogramssincp1990.By g,omparison,theUSGCRPinvestrlrentin assessnentactiviljesandotherdecisionsupportresouroeshasbeenmuchsnrallerto date.The largestassessmentprogrampreviouslyundertakenby the USGCM wastheNationalAssesstlrentinitiatedin 1998thatproducedoverviewreportsin late2000anda,leii.Esofspeeialtyreporis.intheperiod2001-2003..IFOOTNOTEl: "On a periodicbasis(noi lessftequenttythanevery4 y"urr; ti,. Couniil;throughthe.Corhlnittee,shallprepareandsubrnitto,thePiesident.andtheCongressan.assessmentwhich:1) Integrales,evaluates,andinterpretsthefindingsoftheProgramanddiscussesthe:scientific,uncertaintiesassociatedwithsuchfindings2) Analyzes'the effectsof globalohangeon thenaturalenyironment,agriculture,eriBigyproductionanduse,land,andwaterresources,transportation,humanhealthand'wei-fare,hunransocia-lsyslerns,andbiologicaldiversify3) Analyzescurrenttlendsin globalchange,bothhuman-inducedandnatufal,an dprojectsma.iortrendsfor thesubsequent25 to 100years:r'(fromSection106)]*oAGENCY CONCURREI{CE DRAFT 2t6 DONOr CrrE OR,QUOTE

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I managementittstitutionsandpolicies,anddecisionprocessesinqludingevaluation.23 TlreCCSPlvill integratelessonsleanredfiom cufent hdaptivedecisionsupportcasestudies4 sponsoredby CC$Ppartlcipatingagencies.Theselessonswill providea mechanismfor5 evaltratinglrorvscientificinfornrationis curentlyused,by,deciiionmaliers(tohelpframe6 problems)andfur evalu.atingthequalityof thesoientificresourcesavailabtito be appliedto the7 nroblems.89 Withina.casestudjesframework,theCCSPwill supportdevelopmentof rssourcesfor decisionI0 support,andrvill developmethodsto quantif!unoertainryandiis effecton theaclabtiveI 1 managernentprocessin a rangeof ex4mpiecgses..Illgs!ryitiverresonrcesto bedeveiopedarelisted12 in Box I l-3.l314 Bo x ll-3r lllustrativeResourcesto be Developedl5 :forAdaptiveMAlagementDebislonSuppoit ,l617 New experimentallong;leaaf z,qoltfr) sfreamflowfoiecastsf:onmajor,rvatershedsof,theUnjted]l States,cosplodrvithimproveddecision"support'fotlwa{er,:m?rnagqlt-;nd ;sers;2,{f;urr,.19 ,?0, Experirnentai,tooperatiohaldecision.suppoftsystentsfor:agricultut.eandrandhihgin selected?l regions(SouthwestlandSouthgast),oftheUnitedStateq[2.4-years]. Y2223 Prototypereglonal(WesternandSoutheaslern)integratedrlmulti.stress',andrnulti-jurisdiction?1 dgcisionsupporrsysterhsfor fonestand wildfird management;z-4,yearsl.2526 Developmentof a bliieprint.fortheimpioved:regionalcliniate,hydiologic,and,ecological27 observingsystemsneecl'edfor eiihanced,d'eqisionsupport,pafticularlyii mountainouJrelions1z-ZB 4yearsl. , ' '1 '293.0 'l'estsof,existingregionalmode'ling.capabilities,anclclefinitioriof theiinprovedr,esional3l modelingcapabilit iesrieedectfo renhancecidecisionsupport[2-4 yearsandbeyonj].32ll Imprbveclpubli'chealthclecjsionsupporlfor maiorclimate.modrtlatcdinfeciibus.rlisejaselhrgdts34 . in theUriitedStates,ineludingnrosquito-borneviral disease,Hantavirus,ondValleyFeverlZ,435 yearsl.3637 Analysisof historicalrecordsin,nrgetareasto gaina betterunderstanding.ofpastandcurrent38 clirnatevariabilityacqosgal !tirne.scalesfor usJinsenqitivityanatysesnt"r*iriing;J ptanned39 physicalinfrastructure[2-4yearsandbeyond].40 - - , ' , , ,4.) Assessmentso:llolentiai,effeotsof'climateohangeapdllahd+rspchangeon v,iaterandveclor,42 bornediseases[2-4year,q]. ,

: :43;44 Assessmentof thepotentialefiiectsof ciimatechange;lahd-useohange,andUV radiationon45 aquaticecoslistenrs[2-4years].46

CI{APTER1I..DECISIONSUPPOXTRESOURCESDEVELOPMENT CCSPSTRATEGICPLAN

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TheCCSP-will periodicallydeveloprvorkshopsandforuinsto gatheriuformationon lessonslearnedfrornadaptivemanagernentdecisionsupportactivities,,andwill prepnresutnmaryreportsthathelpnairsitionknowledgeandresourcesacrossregionsandsectors.Theresources(processesandtools)thatemergefromthis re5earchin decisionsuppoxtarethefoundationforao'goolkit," a ternrthatdescribesa rangeof productsusefulto individualsandinstitutionsrespondingto theeffectsof climatevariabilityandchange,TheCCSPwill supportthemechanismsto helpusersidentifyandusetlrecapabilitiesin thetool kit, includingweb-basectutorials;workbooks,andinteraclivefoiums,Objective2.2: Pntnnte lhe transitionof resourcesf ronrresemchto operationsfot sustained!$e.Oncedecisionmakersbeginusingnewproducts,fhereis,a'needto ensurethecontinuityof thatproductthroughservicesentities,WhiletheCCSPitselfdoesnothavea seivicemtssion,,manyol'theCCSPcollaboratingag'encipsdo..TheCCSPu,ill rvorkto facilitatethesuccessfi.ritransitioning;verificationandvalidation;andmaintonanceof nowlydevelopeclcteoisionsupportproductsrvithinit scollaboratiqgagenciesor othernon-federalserviceentilies.CCSFrviltwqrkto supportcollectionof data,infonnation,andotherresourcesutilizedby thedecisiorrsupportprodr"rctS,andrvill ajdin thefransitionol'thiscollect'iontooperationalentitieswhenappropiriate.lrr th etransitionprocess,it is importantto benehmarktheinrprovementin perfonnanceofsolutionsthatresultfromintegratingrcseolch-qualitvobservationswith research-qualityprediclionsarrdouLlooksintooperationaldecisionsupporttools.Trvoca-scstudiesof adaptivemanagernentdecisionsupport,sumnrarizedinBoxes1l-4 arrdI I-5, illustratethetralrsitionof decisionsupportanalysesintothe:typeof operationalinanagementresourcesanticipatedby thgCCSPDecision-SrrppoitResouroedqvelopmeriigoals,

Bo x1I-4.IlantaviruslPulmonarySyndrorirein thc-SoutliwesternUnitedStatesThis casestudydescribesresearehrandlassessmentactjvitiesurrdertakeirto bellerunderstandthecauseof outbreaksof'hantaviruspulmonary'syndrome(HP$)in thetouthwesternUnitedgtpte5in the1990s.fhs resgalchandassessmgnt:effortsledto pilot,productionandevaluationof riskmapS,whichwcrethenusedby publichealth,otficialsfloron-thegraundinterventionsto preventdiseaseoutbreaksandprotei:tpublic'health.This studyillustrateshowplace-bdsed,mult idisoipl in4ryresearoh,and::assessment,oondqcied- ir iresp's ' tQ,q.uest iongraisedbyaparticularusergroupr(publichealthofficials);canleadto the:developmentof pro-dLrcts(riskmaps)thatsuccessfullyincreaseregionaladaptiveqapacity(bnhancedpublichezilthcare).ProhlenrForntulationIn lgg3,adiseasecharacterizedby acuterespiratorydistresswith a highdeafhrate(greateithan50%)amongpreviouslyhealthypersonswas.identifiedin thesouthwesternUnitedStates.Thisdisease,FIPS,was'tracedt'oa v-irusmaintainedandtransmittedprirnar.ilyrvithinpopulationsof acornmonnativerodent,thedeerlnouse(Peromysausfiianiculatus).Publiohealthofficialswantedto understandth,ercauseofthe grltbteakso'theycoulddevelopeffeotivetechniquesforiuterveningarrclpreventingthe.disease:

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CIIAPTER11.DECISION'SUPPORTRESO{JRCESDEVELOPMENT :CCSPSII"RATEGICPLAN

I dataanalysisandprojectionteohniques:TheCCSPsupportsa majorprogranof climatemodel2 developnrentandverification(seeChapterl0),an dresultsfiomthisprogranrvillbeusedin3 supportofsynthesesasappropriate.45 Analysesof theeffectsof clintalevariability and change.Eval'uatiorrof thepoteniiatimpacts6 associatedrvithdifferentatmosphericconcentrationsof greenhousegasesandaerosolsis an7 importantinput!o weighthecostsandbenefitsassociatedwith differentclirnatepolicies.Furthei8 researchis requiredto integrateourunderstandingofthe rangeofeffbctsofdifferent9 concentrationlevelsandto developmethodsfor aggregatingandcomparingthoseimpactsacrossl0 diffcrentsectorsandsettings.Workingwith externaladvisorygroupsandthebroad'rangeofI I CCSPscieritists,theCCSP-supportedresearchwill:analyzea rangeof possjlldplimatechange12 impactsdetenninedfromclimatesysterirm6delingand,arisingfroindifferentassumptionsaboutl3 naturalandhumanindluences,including(amongnranypthers)implicationsfor agricnltuie,14 fbrestry,drouglrt,fire, Waterresources,fisheries,qoastalzones,andbuiltenvironmentssuchasi 5 ports,It .will alsoaddress(totheextentpossiblegivenunceftainties)thepotgntialirnplicationsofl6 varior,rsresponseoptionsfoi boththe climatesystemandth.e.economy.t718 Integratedcinafilicframewor,tl'.Integratedanalysisof clirnatechangeis,essentialfor bringingl9 togetherresearchfrommanycontributingdisciplinesandapplyingit to gaincomparativeinsight20 intopolicy-rolatedqr"restions.Full intggrationof inforrnationincluding,researchorrhuman21 activities,greenhonsegasandaerosolenrissions,land-useandland-coverclrange,cyclingof22 carbonandothernutrients,clinraticresponses,andiinpactson people,theeconomy,and23 r:esourcesis necessaryfor,analysisof manyimportantquestiolisabout.thepoterrtialirnplicationg24 (botheootromicandepvironmenta!)of differentgreenhousegasconcentrationsandvarious25 technologyportl'olios.Developmentanduseof techniquesfor sceharioandcomparative,analysis26 is usefulfrrrexploringtheirnplioationSof differenthypotheticalpo.ticiesfor curbing,emissiorrs27 growthor encouragingadaptation.Answersfromintegratedanalysiscanonly reflecttheexisting28 stateo:fknowledgein componentstudies,but ii is irnportantto developfi:ameworksand29 rsourcesfor inlegration,exercisethem,andlearn.frornalalysisof the:results.TheCCSPwill30 encourageinnovalionanddevelopiirentofapproachesto inlegratedanalysis,,andtestthese31 approachesin casestudyevaluqtions,a^

33 Evalualionoifuncertainty,For all fburof'theanalyticalapproachesdescribedabove.the issueof34 evaluationandcommunicationof uncer-taintyandIevelsof eonfidenceis firndamental.35, Uncefiaintiescanarisefrornlacft9f kriowledge.;fromproblemsrvithdata,models,terminology,36 of assunrptionsirandfromothersources.lntegratedmodclsarestrongtoglsfoi exalnining37 uncerlainfythroughrepeatedmodelrunswith variationof keyparanreters.Useof scenarios,38 sensitivityanalysis,an dlhespecificationof probabilitydistributionsForman5,inputscouplefl39 with rnodelrunsareamongthewaysin whichintegratedmode.lscanbeusedto explore40 urcertainty.TheCCSPwill use'theseandothertechniquesto evaluateuncertirinty,andcouple4i1 thisanalysiswith it scommi'tmentto reportinglevelsof confidenceanduncertaintyclearlyan d42 transparerttly"The approachesto uncertaintyevaluaiionand'com-municatipr,rwill enabteusersof43 CCSPanalysesto understandtheusesandlimit5of the information.As inciicatedelservherejn44 theStrategicplan,broadguidelines,lbrconsiderationof scientifiduncer;taintyby theCCSP45 inclLrdethc follolving:

AGENCYCONCURRENCEDRSFT 230 DONQTCT|EORQUOTE

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CI.IAPTERTT.DECISIONSUPPQRTRESOURCBSDEYELOPMBNT CCSPSTMTEGIC PLANI'234t678vl0I I12

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Througho'uttheprocess,severalinterlnedibteanalyses,assessments,andreportswoull'begenerated.Exampleproductsfor rhiscasecouldincludethefollowing:' Synthesisreporton thesceriariodevelopmentandthecharacterizationandevaluatibnof the' Evaluationof theimpactson theclimatesystem:forthebaseline'andalternarivetgehirology.pathu'ays,Reporton theanalysisof thescenaripsof rdsiioriseof theciirnatgsystemto v:variousernissionscenarioswith emphasison intercomp.arisonofthe cJifferent:pathviays(z006).' Analysisof thescFndrips'ofe.nvironmentalre.sponsesto thoseresponse,icenariosof tlie.differentclimatestates;Itepor-ts,'oirthb''iritb?-q,ornparisonof thciseiesponSes,tothedifferentcliinilte,st4tes.One,example:may'bean evaluaiiorrofthepgtentialforlezro-ori,sequestratigjrindifferentecosystemsandagriculturalsystems,inciudinginitialgreenhousegasaccountinganalysesandguidelinesfor agribultureandforestry(2006). : ,' Finalsynthesisreporton:,theinte.i.:oomparisoriol'diffbrentteolinologypathBayswiiththe;baselinepathwaysincludingananalysisof potentialenvironmentalbenefitsandassociatedcostsof eachscenarioQA07).

I)ecisiobs rt ment,StraCCSPntanagernqntan dadvisoryprocessos,willensureimplementatiohof anopenandcredible;processfor developmentof decisionsupportresorlrces.IVIanogement SLructureLeadershipanddiiectionwill bdprovidedby theCCSFinteragencygoverningbody,workirrgwith representativesof the lnteragencyWorkingGroupon ClimateChangesoienceandTechnology(IWGCCST)andtheCCTPto:. Selectsynthesesor assessmdrrtsto beconclucteclby.theprogram,andprovi.{eoversightfor theseactivitiesI Reviewneedsfor decisionsupport,focusedon adaptivernanagementandpr.omotedevplqpmentof CCSPresearchandresour-cgsto respond,tg lh,esne.qddr Periodically'identifyanddefinetopicsof inrportanceto nationaldecisionmakinglo beaddressedby the CCSPicasestudiesqfintegratedanalysesa1dscbnaiio-evaluationsI Establishexternaladvi.sorymeohanisms.Decisionsupporl:activifiesin theCCSPwill be implementedthroughan interagerrcyworkirlggrouprvithmanagementandcoordinationsupportfiom theClimatbChangeSoienceProgramOtTice(CCSPO)SpecificresponSibititipsof theworkinggroupinclude,:. Carryoutapprovedactivities(e.g.,identiff resourcerequirements,developimplementalionplbns)undersupervisionof theCCSPinteragencygoverniirgbody' Evaluateprogram,needsanddevelopinitiativesthatrespondto theseheedsc Maintainan invpntortof ongoingdecisionsuppoftandassessrnentactivitLesryitltjntheCCSPagencies. Coordinaleagencyactivities. Supportadvisolymechanisrnsasdirectedby th eCCSP,includingu,orkshops,cominittees.or NRC activi't ies,AGENCY CONCURRENCE DRAff 234 DOliOTCITE,ORrQIIOTE

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r6l7t8l920z12223'>?l

CHAPTI]RT6.PROGRAMMANAGEMENIANDREVIE1V CCSPSTRATEGICPI,ANprogramsfacilitatedataacquisitionandinformation'm4n4genientdptivitiesnecessaryforfundam'entalrese4rch0n gLgbal,cbange,.andpromotetheenhancementof modeis:designedtgimproveunderstandingof Earth:systemprocesSes0nd interlictionsandto developadvincedonalyticmethodstg facilitatebaSicresearch.NSF irlsosupportsfrtnijamentalresiarchon thegeneralprosessesusedby organizationsto idenlifyand.evaluatepolioies.,for:mitigation,adaptatiort,andothet'respgnsesto thechallenge.of.yaryingenvirsnmentalconditions.' :SndtJtsopianlnstltlltibir. '' .' ' : l, : ,, .WithintheSmithsonianIrrstitqtion,globplchange.researcliis conduotedatthe SmithsonianAstrophysiealObservatbry,theNa1-ionafAirlandSpace,Musqgm;the SmithsonianEnvironrireritritResearchCenter,Ntitional}vJuseurn,qfNalurafHiStoryi;51i1i11iSonianTropical,ResearchInstiruteandNationalZoologicalFark.:Researth'is'or,ganizedaroundthemesof atmosphericprocesses,ecosyslemdynamics,observing.natur'irlandanthropogenicenvironmentalchangeon dailytodeoadaltimescrlJes,ahd defining,lqngsl,termclimatepro4iespqesentin thJ historieatart-ifactsandrecordsof themuseumsasweillas,in thegeologicreoordat freldsites,TheSmithsonianlnstirutionpioglamstrivesJo:impro-veknsrvledge.rofthe,ryluraLprogessgsinyolvedin global,climatechange,providea lg.tig-tdtm,reposifbry'[f,elimate-ielevantresearchmateria]s6r preserrtandfuture.studies,andto bringthisknowledgeto vaiiousaudiehceF,fangingfromscholailytolaypublic'TheuniquEcontributioilof theSmithsonianInstitutibnis a long-termperspectlve,e.g.undertakinginvestiglntibnstltatmayrequireextbndedstudybefoieprodr,rcin-gusefUlresultsandoonducting,toobservatlons,dyr:suffigienlly1ong,(a,igi,dqcadal):itirnescal'bslo;resolvehumari-causedrnodifipationof na'turalvariability.

a('Jzo112'829303l)z337+35363lJ6394U

Chaptiir I,6AuiLeadAuthorsJamesR, Mahoney.DOC

RiphardIl. Moss,CCSPOChesterKoblinsky,NASA,andCCSPOContributorsGhassemAsrar,NASA.MargaretS,Leinen,NSFlaritesAndrews;ONR.MaryGlackin,NOAgCharlesGioat,USCSWilliarnHohenstein,USDALinila Lawson,DOTMelindaMoore,HH SPatrickNeale,Smithsonianlnstiiutiorr

AlistidesPatrinos,DOEEmm1,.B.Simmons,USAIDMichaelSiirrrak,USEPAHar.lanWatson,DOS

4: tA1+J4445

AGENCYCONCURRENCEDRAFT 330 DO'NOTCITEOR:QUOTE

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U.S,DEPARTMENT OF STATEOffice of theSpoke.smanFor lnmediate Release

u-s,-rtaly Bilateral ssJointclimate changeResearchMeeting',*$lffi!#l,oo,JOINT STATEMENT -

TheUnitedStatesandltaly conveneda bilateralo'JbintClimateChangeResearchMeeting,,in Romeon January22-23,2002,folloping upontheJuly 19,2001pledgeofpresidentGeorgeW.Bush and Prime Minister SiMo Berluscoui to undertakejoint researchon climatechange. Thispledgerecognizedthe needto dlaw on soundscienceandthepowff of teohnologyto reducetheuneertaintyassociatedwith fuhueglobalclimatpandenvironmental.chaugeTherespectivedelegationswre led by Dr. HarlanWatsonof the U.S, bepartnentof Stateand.Dr. Paul Anastasof the White ,HouseOffice of Scienceand Tecbnologypolicy for theAmericansicle,andby Dr. ConradoClini of the Ministry of frr,itoo11rentapdlerrit-o# fi t;:LucianoCriscuoliofthe Minisfly ofEducationandResearchfor the ltalianside.Tlietrvosjdesidentifigd41oreth.qp20joirl clir:iateclr4ngeresearchactivitiesfo rinrmediate.inrplenrenlatiouandrnorerqpicsrtui'ruritieicljveloprlerrt,intneir,itiqatn.uor:orgioiui;"; ;:rgr";;climaternodeling,atn:osphericstuciiesre.lated.to clifr41s,car'bo1cyc,leres-eauch,lorv-clrborrtechnologies,and o11terlelatedareas. The climatescioncel"."*rli activities6, ir*.aiut,rmplementationwill lmprove the capability to understand,monitor aud pred"ictclimaticvariationsandtheirimpacts. Tnaddition,the technologyresearchactivitiesfor imms6i6teimplementationwill contributeto thedeveloprrrerrtof advancectlol carlrouteclurologies1oijnritnet emissionsOfgreenhotrsegases. : :TheUnited StatesandJtalyalsoagreedto eachdesignateco-ordinatorsundertheauspicesoftheAgreementBetweenthe Governmentsof theUnited Statesof America andItaly fqr ScientifieandTechnologicalCooperationto coordinatethedeveloprnentof:qpecificresearchprgjeotsandtomonitortheprogressof theseproiects.The.goordinatorswillprovideastatusreportattheseventhBiennialReviewof theAgreementto beheld.inwashingtoa,dc htet thisyear,

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contribution to the,program". a]otoro"ht"t^"ott"lotntot-tttlndpreoictabil.ity,,(b rochure)Documentsrecommendedby the USGCRe:u.s, clobal changeResearchprogram(20oj-) "cJimatechangermpactson theunitedstates: The potent ial consequencesof .c l imate var iabi ' l i ty and change"(Referencescited in the ror . indat ionneport) - -u.s- Global changeResearchprogram(2001) "Forests. :The potent iaJConsequencesof cl r'matevari abi I i t i1.an d change',:(fl yer)Document, typesrecommndedby vi ir igus Agenciesor the :sGcRData &InTO rmat l 0nwork' ing Gnoupin t ,he past and popu' lar at previqus COps:Subcom$it teeon Global ChangeResearch;Nat ional Scienceahd Technologycounci ' l(200L) "AgencyData sets Related to Gl,obal change: ndwly evailabl:e in 2ooo,,rntergovernmental Pane'l.on climate changework'i:ngGrouprr (2001) .'climatechange2001: lmpacts, A{aptat ion, and vltnerabi l i ty


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