covid-19 results briefing · 2020. 12. 22. · romania portugal poland netherlands malta luxembourg...

covid19.healthdata.org 1 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

COVID-19 Results Briefing

The European Union

December 22, 2020 This document contains summary information on the latest projections from the IHME model on COVID-19 in the European Union. The model was run on December 22, 2020 with data through December 20, 2020.

Daily cases are trending down, while daily deaths remain relatively constant. In countries that imposed mandates and then relaxed them, transmission has intensified. Unlike in the spring when mandates were removed, and transmission continued to decline, seasonality now implies a rapid return to increased transmission. The scale-up of vaccination is likely to be initially slow, even with the granted approval, leading to under 100 million doses by April 1, 2021. Vaccination on that time scale will have only a small effect on the expected death toll between now and April 1. The critical measures that will make a difference will be prompt re-imposition of gathering restrictions, restaurant and bar closures, and other business closures as transmission intensifies. Expanding mask use – especially in the clusters of countries where mask use is low – could save 57,000 lives by April 1, 2021.

Note: We are tracking the evidence on the new COVID-19 strain reported in the UK. To date, we do not have sufficient evidence to lead to a modification of our forecasts.

Current situation • Daily reported cases in the last week continue to trend down (Figure 1).

• Daily deaths in the last week stayed constant, at around 3,300 per day on average (Figure 2). This makes COVID-19 the number 1 cause of death in the European Union this week (Table 1).

• Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in a number of countries that had been below 1 in the last month, including Ireland, France, and the Netherlands. Effective R remains over 1 in Germany, Czechia, Slovakia, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland as well (Figure 3).

• We estimated that 12% of population in the European Union has been infected as of December 20 (Figure 4).

• The daily death rate is greater than 4 per million in 20 countries (Figure 6).

Trends in drivers of transmission • In the last week, new mandates have been imposed in Croatia, Estonia, Lithuania,

Germany, and the Netherlands. School closures have been newly implemented in five countries. Mandates have been lifted in France (Table 2).


• Mobility last week was 35% lower than the pre-COVID-19 baseline (Figure 8). Mobility was near baseline (within 10%) in Hungary. Mobility was lower than 30% of baseline in 17 countries.

• As of December 20, we estimated that 74% of people always wore a mask when leaving their home, same as last week (Figure 9). Mask use was lower than 50% in five countries: Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Croatia, and Cyprus.

• There were 237 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people on December 20 (Figure 10).

• In the European Union, 53.1% of people say they would accept a vaccine for COVID-19, and 27.5% say they are unsure if they would accept one. The fraction of the population who are open (yes or unsure) to receiving a COVID-19 vaccine ranges from 66% in Croatia to 91% in Portugal (Figure 12).

• We expect that 99 million people will be vaccinated by April 1, 2021 (Figure 13). With faster scale-up, the number vaccinated could reach 341 million people.

Projections • In our reference scenario, which represents what we think is most likely to happen,

our model projects 601,000 cumulative deaths on April 1, 2021. This represents 257,000 additional deaths from December 20 to April 1 (Figure 14). Daily deaths will peak at 3,870 on January 10, 2021 (Figure 15).

• By April 1, 2021, we project that 9,600 lives will could be saved by the projected vaccine rollout. If rapid rollout of vaccine is achieved, 24,600 lives could be saved compared to a no-vaccine scenario. As compared to a no-vaccine scenario, rapid rollout targeting high-risk individuals only could save 30,000 lives (Figure 14).

• If universal mask coverage (95%) were attained in the next week, our model projects 57,000 fewer cumulative deaths, compared to the reference scenario on April 1, 2021 (Figure 14).

• Under our mandates easing scenario, our model projects 749,000 cumulative deaths on April 1, 2021 (Figure 14).

• We estimate that 62.8% of people will still be susceptible on April 1, 2021 (Figure 17).

• The reference scenario assumes that 53 countries or regions within Spain, Italy, and Germany will re-impose some form of mandates by April 1, 2021 (Figure 18).

• Figure 21 compares our reference scenario forecasts to other publicly archived models. Imperial and IHME have quite similar forecasts. The Los Alamos National Labs suggests that deaths will steadily increase through February, while the MIT (Delphi) model suggests daily deaths will steadily decline.

• At some point from December through April 1, 2021, 12 countries will have high or extreme stress on hospital bed capacities (Figure 22). At some point from December through April 1, 25 countries will have high or extreme stress on ICU bed capacities (Figure 23).


Model updates Methods have not been changed in this week’s update. However, vaccination scale-up has been modified to reflect the revised timing of expected approvals and new purchase agreements announced for the Pfizer, Moderna, and Astra-Zeneca vaccines in the EU, Mexico, China, and Malaysia.

European Union CURRENT SITUATION

Current situation

Figure 1. Reported daily COVID-19 cases

0

100,000

200,000

Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20Month

Cou

nt

Daily cases



Table 1. Ranking of COVID-19 among the leading causes of mortality this week, assuming uniform deathsof non-COVID causes throughout the year

Cause name Weekly deaths RankingCOVID-19 23,236 1Ischemic heart disease 18,714 2Stroke 10,303 3Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer 6,216 4Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 5,827 5Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 4,608 6Colon and rectum cancer 4,100 7Lower respiratory infections 3,503 8Hypertensive heart disease 2,797 9Chronic kidney disease 2,430 10

Figure 2a. Reported daily COVID-19 deaths

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21

Dai

ly d

eath

s



Figure 2b. Estimated cumulative deaths by age group

0

5

10

15


Figure 4. Estimated percent of the population infected with COVID-19 on December 20, 2020

=35

Figure 5. Percent of COVID-19 infections detected. This is estimated as the ratio of reported dailyCOVID-19 cases to estimated daily COVID-19 infections based on the SEIR disease transmission model.

0

10

20

30

40

Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21

Per

cent

of i

nfec

tions

det

ecte

d

France Germany Italy Spain European Union



Figure 6. Daily COVID-19 death rate per 1 million on December 20, 2020

=8


European Union CRITICAL DRIVERS

Critical drivers

Table 2. Current mandate implementationP

rimar

y sc

hool

clo

sure

Sec

onda

ry s

choo

l clo

sure

Hig

her

scho

ol c

losu

re

Bor

ders

clo

sed

to a

ny n

on−

resi

dent

Bor

ders

clo

sed

to a

ll no

n−re

side

nts

Indi

vidu

al m

ovem

ents

res

tric

ted

Cur

few

for

busi

ness

es

Indi

vidu

al c

urfe

w

Gat

herin

g lim

it: 6

indo

or, 1

0 ou

tdoo

r

Gat

herin

g lim

it: 1

0 in

door

, 25

outd

oor

Gat

herin

g lim

it: 2

5 in

door

, 50

outd

oor

Gat

herin

g lim

it: 5

0 in

door

, 100

out

door

Gat

herin

g lim

it: 1

00 in

door

, 250

out

door

Res

taur

ants

clo

sed

Bar

s cl

osed

Res

taur

ants

/ ba

rs c

urbs

ide

only

Gym

s, p

ools

, oth

er le

isur

e cl

osed

Non

−es

sent

ial r

etai

l clo

sed

Non

−es

sent

ial r

etai

l cur

bsid

e on

ly

Non

−es

sent

ial w

orkp

lace

s cl

osed

Sta

y ho

me

orde

r

Sta

y ho

me

fine

Mas

k m

anda

te

Mas

k m

anda

te fi

ne

Sweden

Spain

Slovenia

Slovakia

Romania

Portugal

Poland

Netherlands

Malta

Luxembourg

Lithuania

Latvia

Italy

Ireland

Hungary

Greece

Germany

France

Finland

Estonia

Denmark

Czechia

Cyprus

Croatia

Bulgaria

Belgium

Austria

Mandate in placeMandate in place(imposed this week)

Mandate imposed in some subnational locationsMandate imposed in some subnational locations(change in imposition this week)

No mandateNo mandate(lifted this week)

*Not all locations are measured at the subnational level.



Figure 7. Total number of social distancing mandates (including mask use)

Sweden

Spain

Slovenia

Slovakia

Romania

Portugal

Poland

Netherlands

Malta

Luxembourg

Lithuania

Latvia

Italy

Ireland

Hungary

Greece

Germany

France

Finland

Estonia

Denmark

Czechia

Cyprus

Croatia

Bulgaria

Belgium

Austria

Mar

20

Apr 2

0

May

20

Jun

20

Jul 2

0

Aug

20

Sep

20

Oct 2

0

Nov 2

0

Dec 2

0

Jan

21

# of mandates

0

1−5

6−10

11−15

16−20

20−25

Mandate imposition timing



Figure 8a. Trend in mobility as measured through smartphone app use compared to January 2020 baseline

−80

−60

−40

−20

0

Jan 20 Feb 20 Mar 20 Apr 20 May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21

Per

cent

red

uctio

n fr

om a

vera

ge m

obili

ty


Figure 8b. Mobility level as measured through smartphone app use compared to January 2020 baseline(percent) on December 20, 2020

=−10



Figure 9a. Trend in the proportion of the population reporting always wearing a mask when leaving home

0

25

50

75


Per

cent

of p

opul

atio

n


Figure 9b. Proportion of the population reporting always wearing a mask when leaving home on December20, 2020

=70%



Figure 10a. Trend in COVID-19 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people

0

100

200

300


Test

per

100

,000

pop

ulat

ion


Figure 10b. COVID-19 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people on December 18, 2020

=500



Figure 11. Increase in the risk of death due to pneumonia on February 1 2020 compared to August 1 2020

=80%



Figure 12. This figure shows the estimated proportion of the adult (18+) population that is open toreceiving a COVID-19 vaccine based on Facebook survey responses

85%

NA

Figure 13. The number of people who receive any vaccine and those that are immune accounting for efficacy,loss to follow up for 2 dose vaccines, and a 28 day delay between first dose and immunity for 2 dose vaccines.

0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

0

20

40

60

Dec 2

0

Jan

21

Feb

21

Mar

21

Apr 2

1

Peo

ple

Percent of adult population

Reference rollout Rapid rollout

Solid lines represent the total vaccine doses, dashed lines represent effective vaccination


European Union PROJECTIONS AND SCENARIOS

Projections and scenarios

We produce six scenarios when projecting COVID-19. The reference scenario is our forecast of what we thinkis most likely to happen. We assume that if the daily mortality rate from COVID-19 reaches 8 per million,social distancing (SD) mandates will be re-imposed. The mandate easing scenario is what would happen ifgovernments continue to ease social distancing mandates with no re-imposition. The universal mask mandatescenario is what would happen if mask use increased immediately to 95% and social distancing mandateswere re-imposed at 8 deaths per million. These three scenarios assume our reference vaccine delivery scale upwhere vaccine delivery will scale to full capacity over 90 days.

The rapid vaccine rollout scenario assumes that vaccine distribution will scale up to full delivery capacity inhalf the time as the reference delivery scenario and that the maximum doses that can be delivered per day istwice as much as the reference delivery scenario. The rapid vaccine rollout to high-risk populations scenariois the same but high-risk populations are vaccinated before essential workers or other adults. The no vaccinescenario is the same as our reference scenario but with no vaccine use.



Figure 14. Cumulative COVID-19 deaths until April 01, 2021 for six scenarios

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

0

50

100

150

Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21

Cum

ulat

ive

deat

hsC

umulative deaths per 100,000

Reference scenario

Universal mask use

Continued SD mandate easing

Rapid rollout

Rapid rollout to high−risk

No vaccine

Figure 15. Daily COVID-19 deaths until April 01, 2021 for six scenarios

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

Feb 20 Apr 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21

Dai

ly d

eath

sD

aily deaths per 100,000

Reference scenario

Universal mask use


Rapid rollout


No vaccine



Figure 16. Daily COVID-19 infections until April 01, 2021 for six scenarios

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

0

50

100

150

Feb 20 Apr 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21

Dai

ly in

fect

ions

Daily infections per 100,000

Reference scenario

Universal mask use


Rapid rollout


No vaccine

Figure 17. Susceptible population, accounting for infections and people immune through vaccination

0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

0

25

50

75

100

Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21

Peo

ple

susc

eptib

leP

ercent susceptible

Reference scenario

Universal mask use


Rapid rollout


No vaccine



Figure 18. Month of assumed mandate re-implementation. (Month when daily death rate passes 8 permillion, when reference scenario model assumes mandates will be re-imposed.)

December 2020

January 2021

February 2021

March 2021No mandates before April 1 2021



Figure 19. Forecasted percent infected with COVID-19 on April 01, 2021

=35

Figure 20. Daily COVID-19 deaths per million forecasted on April 01, 2021 in the reference scenario

=8



Figure 21. Comparison of reference model projections with other COVID modeling groups. For thiscomparison, we are including projections of daily COVID-19 deaths from other modeling groups when available:Delphi from the Massachussets Institute of Technology (Delphi; https://www.covidanalytics.io/home),Imperial College London (Imperial; https://www.covidsim.org), The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL;https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/), and the SI-KJalpha model from the University of Southern California(SIKJalpha; https://github.com/scc-usc/ReCOVER-COVID-19). Daily deaths from other modeling groupsare smoothed to remove inconsistencies with rounding. Regional values are aggregates from availble locationsin that region.

2,000

4,000

6,000

Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21Date

Dai

ly d

eath

s

Models

IHME

Delphi

Imperial

LANL

SIKJalpha


https://www.covidanalytics.io/homehttps://www.covidsim.orghttps://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/https://github.com/scc-usc/ReCOVER-COVID-19


Figure 22. The estimated inpatient hospital usage is shown over time. The percent of hospital beds occupiedby COVID-19 patients is color coded based on observed quantiles of the maximum proportion of beds occupiedby COVID-19 patients. Less than 5% is considered low stress, 5-9% is considered moderate stress, 10-19% isconsidered high stress, and greater than 20% is considered extreme stress.

Sweden

Spain

Slovenia

Slovakia

Romania

Portugal

Poland

Netherlands

Malta

Luxembourg

Lithuania

Latvia

Italy

Ireland

Hungary

Greece

Germany

France

Finland

Estonia

Denmark

Czech Republic

Cyprus

Croatia

Bulgaria

Belgium

Austria

Apr 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21

Stress level

Low

Moderate

High

Extreme

All hospital beds



Figure 23. The estimated intensive care unit (ICU) usage is shown over time. The percent of ICU bedsoccupied by COVID-19 patients is color coded based on observed quantiles of the maximum proportion ofICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Less than 10% is considered low stress, 10-29% is consideredmoderate stress, 30-59% is considered high stress, and greater than 60% is considered extreme stress.

Sweden

Spain

Slovenia

Slovakia

Romania

Portugal

Poland

Netherlands

Malta

Luxembourg

Lithuania

Latvia

Italy

Ireland

Hungary

Greece

Germany

France

Finland

Estonia

Denmark

Czech Republic

Cyprus

Croatia

Bulgaria

Belgium

Austria

Apr 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21

Stress level

Low

Moderate

High

Extreme

Intensive care unit beds



Table 3. Ranking of COVID-19 among the leading causes of mortality in the full year 2020. Deaths fromCOVID-19 are projections of cumulative deaths on Jan 1, 2021 from the reference scenario. Deaths fromother causes are from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 (rounded to the nearest 100).

Cause name Annual deaths RankingIschemic heart disease 973,100 1Stroke 535,700 2COVID-19 385,784 3Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer 323,200 4Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 303,000 5Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 239,600 6Colon and rectum cancer 213,200 7Lower respiratory infections 182,200 8Hypertensive heart disease 145,500 9Chronic kidney disease 126,400 10


European Union MORE INFORMATION

More information

Data sources:

Mask use data sources include PREMISE; Facebook Global symptom survey (This research is based onsurvey results from University of Maryland Social Data Science Center) and the Facebook United Statessymptom survey (in collaboration with Carnegie Mellon University); Kaiser Family Foundation; YouGovCOVID-19 Behaviour Tracker survey.

Vaccine hesitancy data are from the COVID-19 Beliefs, Behaviors, and Norms Study, a survey conducted onFacebook by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (https://covidsurvey.mit.edu/).

Data on vaccine candidates, stages of development, manufacturing capacity, and pre-purchasing agreementsare primarily from Linksbridge and supplemented by Duke University.

A note of thanks:

We wish to warmly acknowledge the support of these and others who have made our covid-19 estimationefforts possible.

More information:

For all COVID-19 resources at IHME, visit http://www.healthdata.org/covid.

Questions? Requests? Feedback? Please contact us at https://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-us.


https://covidsurvey.mit.edu/https://www.healthdata.org/covid/acknowledgementshttp://www.healthdata.org/covidhttps://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-us

COVID-19 Results Briefingthe European UnionDecember 22, 2020Current situationTrends in drivers of transmissionProjectionsModel updates

Current situationCritical driversProjections and scenariosMore informationADP65D7.tmpCOVID-19 Results BriefingThe European UnionDecember 22, 2020

This document contains summary information on the latest projections from the IHME model on COVID-19 in the European Union. The model was run on December 22, 2020 with data through December 20, 2020.Daily cases are trending down, while daily deaths remain relatively constant. In countries that imposed mandates and then relaxed them, transmission has intensified. Unlike in the spring when mandates were removed, and transmission continued to declin...Note: We are tracking the evidence on the new COVID-19 strain reported in the UK. To date, we do not have sufficient evidence to lead to a modification of our forecasts.Current situation

• Daily reported cases in the last week continue to trend down (Figure 1).• Daily deaths in the last week stayed constant, at around 3,300 per day on average (Figure 2). This makes COVID-19 the number 1 cause of death in the European Union this week (Table 1).• Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in a number of countries that had been below 1 in the last month, including Ireland, France, and the Netherlands. Effective R remains over 1 in Germany, Czechia, Slov...• We estimated that 12% of population in the European Union has been infected as of December 20 (Figure 4).• The daily death rate is greater than 4 per million in 20 countries (Figure 6).Trends in drivers of transmission

• In the last week, new mandates have been imposed in Croatia, Estonia, Lithuania, Germany, and the Netherlands. School closures have been newly implemented in five countries. Mandates have been lifted in France (Table 2).• Mobility last week was 35% lower than the pre-COVID-19 baseline (Figure 8). Mobility was near baseline (within 10%) in Hungary. Mobility was lower than 30% of baseline in 17 countries.• As of December 20, we estimated that 74% of people always wore a mask when leaving their home, same as last week (Figure 9). Mask use was lower than 50% in five countries: Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Croatia, and Cyprus.• There were 237 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people on December 20 (Figure 10).• In the European Union, 53.1% of people say they would accept a vaccine for COVID-19, and 27.5% say they are unsure if they would accept one. The fraction of the population who are open (yes or unsure) to receiving a COVID-19 vaccine ranges from 66% ...• We expect that 99 million people will be vaccinated by April 1, 2021 (Figure 13). With faster scale-up, the number vaccinated could reach 341 million people.Projections

• In our reference scenario, which represents what we think is most likely to happen, our model projects 601,000 cumulative deaths on April 1, 2021. This represents 257,000 additional deaths from December 20 to April 1 (Figure 14). Daily deaths will p...• By April 1, 2021, we project that 9,600 lives will could be saved by the projected vaccine rollout. If rapid rollout of vaccine is achieved, 24,600 lives could be saved compared to a no-vaccine scenario. As compared to a no-vaccine scenario, rapid r...• If universal mask coverage (95%) were attained in the next week, our model projects 57,000 fewer cumulative deaths, compared to the reference scenario on April 1, 2021 (Figure 14).• Under our mandates easing scenario, our model projects 749,000 cumulative deaths on April 1, 2021 (Figure 14).• We estimate that 62.8% of people will still be susceptible on April 1, 2021 (Figure 17).• The reference scenario assumes that 53 countries or regions within Spain, Italy, and Germany will re-impose some form of mandates by April 1, 2021 (Figure 18).• Figure 21 compares our reference scenario forecasts to other publicly archived models. Imperial and IHME have quite similar forecasts. The Los Alamos National Labs suggests that deaths will steadily increase through February, while the MIT (Delphi) ...• At some point from December through April 1, 2021, 12 countries will have high or extreme stress on hospital bed capacities (Figure 22). At some point from December through April 1, 25 countries will have high or extreme stress on ICU bed capacities...Model updates

Methods have not been changed in this week’s update. However, vaccination scale-up has been modified to reflect the revised timing of expected approvals and new purchase agreements announced for the Pfizer, Moderna, and Astra-Zeneca vaccines in the EU...

ADP6306.tmpCOVID-19 Results BriefingThe European UnionDecember 22, 2020

This document contains summary information on the latest projections from the IHME model on COVID-19 in the European Union. The model was run on December 22, 2020 with data through December 20, 2020.Daily cases are trending down, while daily deaths remain relatively constant. In countries that imposed mandates and then relaxed them, transmission has intensified. Unlike in the spring when mandates were removed, and transmission continued to declin...Note: We are tracking the evidence on the new COVID-19 strain reported in the UK. To date, we do not have sufficient evidence to lead to a modification of our forecasts.Current situation

• Daily reported cases in the last week continue to trend down (Figure 1).• Daily deaths in the last week stayed constant, at around 3,300 per day on average (Figure 2). This makes COVID-19 the number 1 cause of death in the European Union this week (Table 1).• Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in a number of countries that had been below 1 in the last month, including Ireland, France, and the Netherlands. Effective R remains over 1 in Germany, Czechia, Slov...• We estimated that 12% of population in the European Union has been infected as of December 20 (Figure 4).• The daily death rate is greater than 4 per million in 20 countries (Figure 6).Trends in drivers of transmission

• In the last week, new mandates have been imposed in Croatia, Estonia, Lithuania, Germany, and the Netherlands. School closures have been newly implemented in five countries. Mandates have been lifted in France (Table 2).• Mobility last week was 35% lower than the pre-COVID-19 baseline (Figure 8). Mobility was near baseline (within 10%) in Hungary. Mobility was lower than 30% of baseline in 17 countries.• As of December 20, we estimated that 74% of people always wore a mask when leaving their home, same as last week (Figure 9). Mask use was lower than 50% in five countries: Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Croatia, and Cyprus.• There were 237 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people on December 20 (Figure 10).• In the European Union, 53.1% of people say they would accept a vaccine for COVID-19, and 27.5% say they are unsure if they would accept one. The fraction of the population who are open (yes or unsure) to receiving a COVID-19 vaccine ranges from 66% ...• We expect that 99 million people will be vaccinated by April 1, 2021 (Figure 13). With faster scale-up, the number vaccinated could reach 341 million people.Projections

• In our reference scenario, which represents what we think is most likely to happen, our model projects 601,000 cumulative deaths on April 1, 2021. This represents 257,000 additional deaths from December 20 to April 1 (Figure 14). Daily deaths will p...• By April 1, 2021, we project that 9,600 lives will could be saved by the projected vaccine rollout. If rapid rollout of vaccine is achieved, 24,600 lives could be saved compared to a no-vaccine scenario. As compared to a no-vaccine scenario, rapid r...• If universal mask coverage (95%) were attained in the next week, our model projects 57,000 fewer cumulative deaths, compared to the reference scenario on April 1, 2021 (Figure 14).• Under our mandates easing scenario, our model projects 749,000 cumulative deaths on April 1, 2021 (Figure 14).• We estimate that 62.8% of people will still be susceptible on April 1, 2021 (Figure 17).• The reference scenario assumes that 53 countries or regions within Spain, Italy, and Germany will re-impose some form of mandates by April 1, 2021 (Figure 18).• Figure 21 compares our reference scenario forecasts to other publicly archived models. Imperial and IHME have quite similar forecasts. The Los Alamos National Labs suggests that deaths will steadily increase through February, while the MIT (Delphi) ...• At some point from December through April 1, 2021, 12 countries will have high or extreme stress on hospital bed capacities (Figure 22). At some point from December through April 1, 25 countries will have high or extreme stress on ICU bed capacities...Model updates

Methods have not been changed in this week’s update. However, vaccination scale-up has been modified to reflect the revised timing of expected approvals and new purchase agreements announced for the Pfizer, Moderna, and Astra-Zeneca vaccines in the EU...

covid-19 results briefing · 2020. 12. 22. · romania portugal poland netherlands malta luxembourg...

Documents