covid-19 model real time situational update · 2020. 7. 28. · on april 5, the uptrend broke to...

COVID-19 Model Real Time Situational Update

COVID-19 NEW REPORTED CASES AS OF TODAY

Sources: Data from prior day’s end is the “European CDC – Latest Situation Update Worldwide.” Data for U.S. State and intraday measures is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus.

On April 5, the uptrend broke to down. In mid June, the downtrend reversed. ~1.5 MM tests had been performed through April 5. We hit ~48 MM tests today. NY & NJ were ~71% of new cases in the 7-days ending March 25. They’re only ~1.7% of new cases now. AZ, FL, TX & CA were ~ 11% of new cases on March 25. They’re about 45% of new cases now. AZ, FL, TX & CA peaked at 57% of new cases on July 7, and has trended down since.

3/13/2020,Date Social Distancing

Measures Began in Some Form.

Global Stock Market Bottom

3/27/2020, Date Social Distancing Measures Had Chance To Dent Curve in

United States. (2 week lag from 3/13)

4/5/2020, Trend Broke!

4/12/2020, Easter Sunday

5/25/2020, Memorial Day

5/28/2020, First George Floyd

Protest outside MN

6/16/2020, June

Sixteenth

7/4/2020, 4th of July

(5,000) (2,500)

- 2,500 5,000 7,500

10,000 12,500 15,000 17,500 20,000 22,500 25,000 27,500 30,000 32,500 35,000 37,500 40,000 42,500 45,000 47,500 50,000 52,500 55,000 57,500 60,000 62,500 65,000 67,500 70,000 72,500 75,000 77,500 80,000 82,500

3/1/20203/3/20203/5/20203/7/20203/9/20203/11/20203/13/20203/15/20203/17/20203/19/20203/21/20203/23/20203/25/20203/27/20203/29/20203/31/20204/2/20204/4/20204/6/20204/8/20204/10/20204/12/20204/14/20204/16/20204/18/20204/20/20204/22/20204/24/20204/26/20204/28/20204/30/20205/2/20205/4/20205/6/20205/8/20205/10/20205/12/20205/14/20205/16/20205/18/20205/20/20205/22/20205/24/20205/26/20205/28/20205/30/20206/1/20206/3/20206/5/20206/7/20206/9/20206/11/20206/13/20206/15/20206/17/20206/19/20206/21/20206/23/20206/25/20206/27/20206/29/20207/1/20207/3/20207/5/20207/7/20207/9/20207/11/20207/13/20207/15/20207/17/20207/19/20207/21/20207/23/20207/25/20207/27/2020

New

Rep

orte

d C

ases

New Reported Cases (U.S.)Total U.S. NewCases

NY & NJ (8.6% ofPopulation) + AZ,CA, TX & FL (29.6%of Popluation)

NY & NJ (8.6% ofPopulation)

AZ, CA, TX & FL(29.6% ofPopluation)

Other 45 States +DC (61.7% ofPopulation)


INFECTION RATES TODAY Comparisons to other nations as reasonable benchmarks adjusted for dates where the one case per million

residents threshold was crossed (at day zero) Sweden seemed to get hit with a big second wave. (Sweden never completely locked down.)

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

3/1/20203/4/20203/7/20203/10/20203/13/20203/16/20203/19/20203/22/20203/25/20203/28/20203/31/20204/3/20204/6/20204/9/20204/12/20204/15/20204/18/20204/21/20204/24/20204/27/20204/30/20205/3/20205/6/20205/9/20205/12/20205/15/20205/18/20205/21/20205/24/20205/27/20205/30/20206/2/20206/5/20206/8/20206/11/20206/14/20206/17/20206/20/20206/23/20206/26/20206/29/20207/2/20207/5/20207/8/20207/11/20207/14/20207/17/20207/20/20207/23/20207/26/20207/29/20208/1/20208/4/20208/7/2020C

onfir

med

New

Dai

ly In

fect

ed P

er P

erso

n

New Infection Rates Over Time By CountrySince March 1

United States

Italy

Spain

Sweden

Germany

United Kingdom

France

DAYS FOR CASES TO DOUBLE AS OF TODAY- ACCELERATE DOWNWARD SLOPES


We are on pace for ~76 days to double. Peaked at over 100 a few weeks ago.

03333

544557777888

121112121313

1819

222220202221

3027

21

47

32

41

18

35

4341

3735

32

38

45

515050

4347

50

65

73

61

66

51

5659

78

68

76

66

61

65

7579

8688

90

78

68

75

89

8588

93

88

74

8586

103105

96

87

7980

106105

89

84

78

73

65

87

73

6768

58

53

58

6561

59

515050

62

5858

515148

4751

5757

4951

45

50

5760

66

5357

63

51

63

7575

-

20

40

60

80

100

3/19/20203/23/20203/27/20203/31/20204/4/20204/8/20204/12/20204/16/20204/20/20204/24/20204/28/20205/2/20205/6/20205/10/20205/14/20205/18/20205/22/20205/26/20205/30/20206/3/20206/7/20206/11/20206/15/20206/19/20206/23/20206/27/20207/1/20207/5/20207/9/20207/13/20207/17/20207/21/20207/25/20207/29/20208/2/20208/6/20208/10/20208/14/2020

Day

s to

Dou

ble

Number of Days for Confirmed Infected to Double(Total Infected / New Daily Infected = Days to Double)

Today Line

USA (Actual to Now)

Days to Double if Prior 7-DayNew Case Rate ChangePersists (-0.07 Thousand/Day)

Days to Double if New DailyCases Flatten - 56.2Thousand Per Day

28 DAY FORECASTS AS OF TODAY- WHY CUTTING DAYS TO DOUBLE IS SO CRITICAL


Reasonable forecasts based on today’s trends Added a 30 days to double scenario to show why reversing recent trend is so critical.

Day 28, 10,398,622

Day 7, 4,627,721

Day 14, 5,021,422

Day 21, 5,415,123

Day 28, 5,808,824

Day 7, 4,626,200

Day 14, 5,014,831

Day 21, 5,399,913

Day 28, 5,781,446

3,900,000

4,900,000

5,900,000

6,900,000

7,900,000

8,900,000

9,900,000

10,900,000

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

Day 4

Day 5

Day 6

Day 7

Day 8

Day 9

Day 10

Day 11

Day 12

Day 13

Day 14

Day 15

Day 16

Day 17

Day 18

Day 19

Day 20

Day 21

Day 22

Day 23

Day 24

Day 25

Day 26

Day 27

Day 28

Con

firm

ed In

fect

ions

(b

ased

on

diffe

rent

day

s to

dou

ble)

Next 28 Days from Today/Now

Different Days to Double Scenarios

30 Days To Double

Current days to double(extrapolated) = 75.28

Days to Double if New DailyCases Flatten - 56.2 ThousandPer Day

Days to Double if Prior 7-Day NewCase Rate Change Persists (-0.07Thousand/Day)

144 Days To Double


COVID-19 STATE TOTAL CASES & DAYS TO DOUBLE Every State has its own “days-to-double” trend States to the right may have a harder time easing restrictions or may require a second lockdown States to the left may have more options to ease more restrictions sooner States hit hardest the earliest are generally those in better shape today (and vice-versa).

21 24

25 29

29

30

31 34

34

35

36 39

39

39

40

42

42

43

43

44

46

46

47

50

53

53

53

55

57

59

62

62 70

70

71

71 78

82 90

111

115

116

119

122 15

3

205

215

227

228

362

373 44

8 574

5

10

20

40

80

160

320

640

Alaska (3.2K

)

Montana (3.4K)

Oklahom

a (32.5K)

Missouri (44.8K

)

Puerto R

ico (15.4K)

Haw

aii (1.7K)

Idaho (18.8K)

Mississippi (53K

)

Tennessee (93.9K)

Florida (432.7K)

Nevada (43.9K

)

Kentucky (28.3K

)

Alabam

a (81.1K)

West V

irginia (6.1K)

Georgia (155.9K

)

North D

akota (6K)

California (467.1K

)

Texas (402.3K)

Arkansas (39.4K

)

Louisiana (110K)

South C

arolina (82.4K)

Wyom

ing (2.5K)

Oregon (17.1K)

Wisconsin (53.3K

)

New

Mexico (19.5K

)

North C

arolina (114.7K)

US

A (82.7K)

Arizona (163.9K

)

Kansas (26.4K)

Ohio (85.2K

)

Utah (38.4K

)

Washington (55.5K

)

Colorado (44.7K

)

Minnesota (51.8K)

Indiana (64.4K)

Virginia (86.1K)

Nebraska (24.9K

)

Iowa (42.7K

)

Maryland (85.4K

)

South D

akota (8.4K)

Pennsylvania (113K

)

Illinois (174.4K)

Michigan (87.3K

)

Delaw

are (14.4K)

District of C

olumbia (11.9K

)

Rhode Island (18.5K

)

Maine (3.8K

)

Verm

ont (1.4K)

New

Ham

pshire (6.4K)

Connecticut (49K

)

Massachusetts (115.9K

)

New

Jersey (181.7K)

New

York (417.1K

)

Day

s to

Dou

ble

U.S. State (and/or D.C.)"USA" is State Average

Days to Double By State(based on 7-day trend)

Sources: Data for U.S. States is from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus.

PERCENT TESTING POSITIVE BY STATE 24% of those tested in Mississippi the past week tested positive to COVID-19. Arizona and Florida are still in trouble, but showing improvement.

24.1

%22

.0%

19.1

%19

.0%

16.4

%16

.3%

15.5

%14

.5%

14.1

%13

.5%

12.0

%10

.6%

9.6%

9.6%

9.3%

8.5%

8.5%

8.1%

7.9%

7.9%

7.9%

7.9%

7.8%

7.5%

7.1%

6.9%

6.5%

6.3%

6.1%

5.9%

5.8%

5.6%

5.3%

5.2%

4.7%

4.5%

4.4%

4.0%

3.9%

3.8%

3.7%

2.9%

2.7%

2.5%

2.5%

2.3%

2.3%

1.6%

1.1%

1.1%

0.7%

0.6%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Mississippi

Arizona

Florida

Alabam

a

Idaho

Kansas

South C

arolina

Nevada

Georgia

Missouri

Texas

Arkansas

Utah

Louisiana

Iowa

Tennessee

Nebraska

US

A Average

Indiana

Wyom

ing

Oklahom

a

Kentucky

California

Colorado

Wisconsin

North D

akota

Virginia

North C

arolina

South D

akota

Pennsylvania

Maryland

Ohio

Oregon

Washington

Rhode Island

Minnesota

Delaw

are

New

Mexico

Montana

Illinois

Haw

aii

West V

irginia

Massachusetts

Alaska

Michigan

District O

f Colum

bia

New

Ham

pshire

New

Jersey

Connecticut

New

York

Maine

Verm

ontPe

rcen

t Tes

ting

Posi

tive

(Pas

t 7 D

ays)

U.S. State (and/or D.C.)"USA" is State Average

Percent Testing Positive By State(based on 7-day Average)


CONFIRMED INFECTIONS / POPULATION BY STATE NY & NJ peaked at 62% of total U.S. cases on March 25, but trended down to 15% of total reported cases today. According to Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. CDC, 10 times more people have antibodies in the jurisdictions tested

than had documented infections. Source: https://time.com/5859790/cdc-coronavirus-estimates/ This implies the true U.S. infection rate may be 10.34% rather than 1.34% (or 44 MM rather than 4.4 MM Americans) Arizona, Louisiana and Florida have been rapidly ascending on this list

2.36

%

2.26

%

2.25

%

2.09

%

2.01

%

1.78

%

1.75

%

1.68

%

1.68

%

1.65

%

1.61

%

1.60

%

1.48

%

1.42

%

1.41

%

1.40

%

1.39

%

1.37

%

1.37

%

1.35

%

1.34

%

1.31

%

1.29

%

1.20

%

1.18

%

1.09

%

1.05

%

1.01

%

0.95

%

0.93

%

0.93

%

0.92

%

0.90

%

0.88

%

0.87

%

0.85

%

0.83

%

0.79

%

0.77

%

0.73

%

0.72

%

0.72

%

0.62

%

0.47

%

0.44

%

0.41

%

0.36

%

0.34

%

0.32

%

0.29

%

0.22

%

0.12

%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

Louisiana

New

York

Arizona

New

Jersey

Florida

Mississippi

Rhode Island

Massachusetts

District O

f Colum

bia

Alabam

a

Georgia

South C

arolina

Delaw

are

Nevada

Tennessee

Maryland

Texas

Connecticut

Illinois

Iowa

United S

tates

Arkansas

Nebraska

Utah

California

North C

arolina

Idaho

Virginia

South D

akota

Indiana

New

Mexico

Minnesota

Kansas

Pennsylvania

Michigan

Wisconsin

Oklahom

a

North D

akota

Colorado

Ohio

Missouri

Washington

Kentucky

New

Ham

pshire

Wyom

ing

Oregon

Alaska

West V

irginia

Montana

Maine

Verm

ont

Haw

aii

Infe

ctio

n R

ate

Per P

erso

n(S

tate

Con

firm

Infe

cted

/ S

tate

Tot

al P

opul

atio

n)

U.S. State (and/or D.C.)

Confirmed Infection Rate By State (Today)

Total USA Confirmed Infected = 1.339%

https://time.com/5859790/cdc-coronavirus-estimates/


PERCENT OF POPULATION TESTING POSITIVE 0.34% of the entire Florida population tested positive in the past 7 days 0.32% of the entire Louisiana population tested positive in the past 7 days Mississippi & Arizona not far behind.

0.34

%

0.32

%

0.30

%

0.26

%

0.25

%

0.25

%

0.24

%

0.23

%

0.21

%

0.18

%

0.18

%

0.18

%

0.18

%

0.17

%

0.15

%

0.14

%

0.13

%

0.12

%

0.11

%

0.11

%

0.11

%

0.11

%

0.11

%

0.10

%

0.10

%

0.10

%

0.09

%

0.09

%

0.09

%

0.08

%

0.08

%

0.08

%

0.08

%

0.07

%

0.07

%

0.07

%

0.07

%

0.06

%

0.06

%

0.06

%

0.05

%

0.05

%

0.05

%

0.05

%

0.03

%

0.03

%

0.03

%

0.03

%

0.02

%

0.02

%

0.01

%

0.01

%

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0.40%

Florida

Louisiana

Mississippi

Arizona

Alabam

a

Tennessee

Georgia

Nevada

South C

arolina

Idaho

Texas

Oklahom

a

Arkansas

California

Missouri

US

A

North C

arolina

Utah

Wisconsin

North D

akota

Alaska

Iowa

Nebraska

Maryland

New

Mexico

Kansas

Kentucky

Delaw

are

Virginia

Indiana

Minnesota

Illinois

Ohio

Washington

District O

f Colum

bia

Colorado

Montana

Rhode Island

Wyom

ing

South D

akota

Oregon

Pennsylvania

West V

irginia

Michigan

New

Jersey

Massachusetts

Connecticut

New

York

Haw

aii

New

Ham

pshire

Maine

Verm

ont

Perc

ent o

f Pop

ulat

ion

"USA" is National Average

Percent of Population Testing Positive the Past 7 DaysPositive Cases divided by population


INFECTIONS RATES VS TESTING RATES BY STATE You cannot measure what you cannot see. National testing rate continues to rise. Obviously, states that have tested more have found more cases.

NY

NJ

CA

MI

MA

FL

WA

IL

PA

LA

TX

GA

CO

CT

OH

TN

IN

MD

NC

WI

AZ

MO

VA

NV

ALSC

MS

UT

OR

MN

AR

DC

OK

KY

IA

ID

KS

NH

NM

ME

DE

VT

HI

MT

NE

WV AK

ND

SD

WY

USA

16.62%1.34%

y = 0.0496x + 0.0032R² = 0.2296

0.04%

0.54%

1.04%

1.54%

2.04%

7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5% 20.0% 22.5% 25.0% 27.5% 30.0% 32.5%

Infe

ctio

n R

ate

(Per

cent

of P

opul

atio

n)

Testing Rate (Percent of Population)

Confirmed Infection Rate vs. Testing Rate

Infection Rate vs. Testing Rate USA Linear (Infection Rate vs. Testing Rate)

WEEKLY TREND BY STATE 32 states/DC saw increased cases over last week. 19 showed declines. A week ago, it was a 42/9 +/- ratio. 33 states/DC improved since last week. 18 digressed since last week. CA, FL and TX are driving the nation and all three showed week-over-week improvement. Highest percentage increases coming from lower nominal case states.

Sources: Data for U.S. States is New York Times - https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data

-29%

-27%

2%

7%

-16% 1%

27% 29%

33% 16%12% 41% 11% 20% 0% 8% 25%

22%18% 45% 0% 6% 40% -5% 16% 3% 16% 18% 18% 27% 11% 10%

12% 6% 10%5%

30% 3% 14% -8% 25% -4% 16% 3% 28% -4% 45%13%

13% 12%

18%

HI0.3

NJ2.8 CT

0.9

OK7.1 RI

0.6NE2.1

MO8.8

AK0.8

MS9.1

ND0.9

CO4.1

MD6.2 DC

0.5

IL9.9

SD0.5

NM2.3 WY

0.3

VA7.7

TN15.9

KY4.3

GA23.1

AR5.5

IN5.8 WV

0.9MA2.1

MN4.7

WI6.6

PA6.5 NH

0.2DE0.8

MT0.8

CA66.9

LA15.0

NC13.4

NY5.0

OH9.0 MI

4.8

FL72.4

OR2.2

UT3.9

AL12.2

IA3.4

ID3.5

KS2.9

WA5.6

AZ18.6

NV7.1

SC11.0

ME0.1

TX56.6

VT0.0

(50)

(25)

-

25

50

75

100

125

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

HI

NJ

CT

OK

RI

NE

MO

AK

MS

ND

CO

MD

DC

IL SD

NM

WY

VA

TN KY

GA

AR

IN WV

MA

MN

WI

PA

NH

DE

MT

CA

LA NC

NY

OH

MI

FL OR

UT

AL

IA ID KS

WA

AZ

NV

SC

ME

TX VT

Wee

kly

New

Cas

es

(Tho

usan

ds)

Rat

es o

f New

Infe

ctio

n(P

erce

ntag

es a

bove

/bel

ow b

ars

was

last

wee

k)

U.S. State (and/or D.C.)

New Infections Over 7 Days Versus Prior 7 Days

Improved This Week Worse This Week Number of weekly cases (Thousands)

POSITIVE TESTS AND CUMULATIVE TESTING Testing is ramping up. This may be the only log scale graph we want when it comes to COVID-19. ~10% of those tested have test positive today. Uptrend of those testing positive over the last few weeks is a likely sign that increasing case counts are not merely

just a function of more testing.


26%

20%21%

16%

20%

18%

20%

21%21%

17%

18%

12%

9%

11%

8%

24%

14%

11%10%

12%

10%

14%

12%

11%

8%

10%

8%

10%9%10%

5%6%

7%

6%

8%7%

7%

5%5%5%5%

6%6%6%

5%

6%6%

4%4%

6%6%

5%5%4%4%4%

5%5%6%

4%4%4%4%

5%5%5%4%

5%5%5%5%

7%

6%6%7%

5%

7%8%7%

6%7%7%

8%8%8%

7%

10%

8%

9%8%

8%

10%

8%8%8%

9%8%

9%9%

8%9%

8%

9%8%

7%

10%

0.30.40.60.70.91.01.21.31.51.61.82.12.32.52.83.03.23.43.73.94.24.44.74.95.25.45.76.06.36.67.07.37.67.98.38.79.09.49.810.210.711.111.511.812.312.612.913.313.814.214.615.015.515.916.416.917.417.918.218.719.119.620.220.721.221.622.122.523.123.624.224.725.225.726.226.827.428.028.629.329.930.531.231.932.533.233.734.335.035.736.537.237.938.639.440.241.041.842.643.444.144.945.746.547.448.2

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

12.5%

15.0%

17.5%

20.0%

22.5%

25.0%

27.5%

30.0%

4/10/20204/12/20204/14/20204/16/20204/18/20204/20/20204/22/20204/24/20204/26/20204/28/20204/30/20205/2/20205/4/20205/6/20205/8/20205/10/20205/12/20205/14/20205/16/20205/18/20205/20/20205/22/20205/24/20205/26/20205/28/20205/30/20206/1/20206/3/20206/5/20206/7/20206/9/20206/11/20206/13/20206/15/20206/17/20206/19/20206/21/20206/23/20206/25/20206/27/20206/29/20207/1/20207/3/20207/5/20207/7/20207/9/20207/11/20207/13/20207/15/20207/17/20207/19/20207/21/20207/23/20207/25/20207/27/2020

Cum

ulat

ive

Test

s (M

illio

ns)

Perc

ent o

f Pos

itive

Test

s

Percentage of Positive Tests and Cumulative Testing

Cumulative Daily Cumulative Test Number


COVID-19 MORTALITY AS OF TODAY We know the true infection rate is much higher than confirmed case count based on antibody testing, testing

capacity constraints, high amounts of asymptomatic infections, so actual mortality rate is likely meaningfully overstated (perhaps by 10X according to CDC estimates).

7/28/2020, 3.45%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

3/1/2020

3/8/2020

3/15/2020

3/22/2020

3/29/2020

4/5/2020

4/12/2020

4/19/2020

4/26/2020

5/3/2020

5/10/2020

5/17/2020

5/24/2020

5/31/2020

6/7/2020

6/14/2020

6/21/2020

6/28/2020

7/5/2020

7/12/2020

7/19/2020

7/26/2020

Num

ber o

f Dea

ths

Div

ided

By

Rep

orte

d C

ases

Mortality Rate in U.S.A.

Mortality Rate

7/28/2020

DISCLOSURESWhile health datasets and economic and financial market data have become uniquely coupled (more than typical) by this immediate COVID-19 pandemic crisis, nothing in this presentation is meant to represent a trading recommendation of any kind for any individual asset class or security.

The presentation seeks to find a best estimate of the COVID-19 outbreak as it stands today and build reasonable forecasts for the next day, next week or next 28 days. They are speculative, but simply represent our best speculation.

Salisbury Trust Wealth Advisory Services does not have any unique expertise on viruses or pandemics. Our modeling of the virus assumes a predictable mathematical path (across borders) based statistical analysis. However, while we believe the information to be sound, it may be subject to significant errors.

To the extent this presentation includes any information on past returns, past returns are not indicative of future returns.

Sources: • The source for any S&P 500 Index (Daily) Data, will be Yahoo Finance (^GSPC). It will be shown assuming historical

dividends are reinvested and in U.S. Dollar terms.• Data from prior day’s end is the “European CDC – Latest Situation Update Worldwide.” • Data for intraday (nationwide) snapshots and the prior day’s individual U.S. States is

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus• Data for state geographic size is: https://statesymbolsusa.org/symbol-official-item/national-us/uncategorized/states-size • Data for average daily state temperature is: https://www.currentresults.com/Weather/US/average-annual-state-

temperatures.php (Virginia temperatures used for Washington DC.)• Data for state population: Census.gov. [Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change:

April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 (NST-EST2019-alldata)].• Data for U.S. States is New York Times - https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data

covid-19 model real time situational update · 2020. 7. 28. · on april 5, the uptrend broke to...

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