Price-adjusted Major Currencies Dollar Index -- Monthly Index (FED Data)

Date RateJan-73 108.2803Feb-73 103.495Mar-73 100Apr-73 100.7017May-73 99.3214Jun-73 97.4136Jul-73 94.7303

Aug-73 96.8804Sep-73 96.6174Oct-73 96.307Nov-73 98.7118Dec-73 99.6426Jan-74 102.908Feb-74 100.1977Mar-74 98.099Apr-74 96.3189May-74 95.2881Jun-74 96.3419Jul-74 96.58

Aug-74 98.4403Sep-74 99.3586Oct-74 98.2409Nov-74 97.4898Dec-74 96.4146Jan-75 95.4763Feb-75 94.1057Mar-75 93.0809Apr-75 93.9614May-75 93.2205Jun-75 93.1717Jul-75 95.7911

Aug-75 97.2391Sep-75 97.9332Oct-75 97.5564Nov-75 97.2585Dec-75 97.8006Jan-76 97.0259Feb-76 96.1563Mar-76 96.5364Apr-76 96.4961May-76 96.5144Jun-76 96.6573

Jul-76 96.2406Aug-76 96.1122Sep-76 95.07Oct-76 95.2266Nov-76 95.4167Dec-76 95.7234Jan-77 94.8818Feb-77 95.4529Mar-77 95.3116Apr-77 94.7285May-77 94.2822Jun-77 94.0793Jul-77 92.9699

Aug-77 93.7103Sep-77 93.5852Oct-77 92.3913Nov-77 91.4018Dec-77 89.6544Jan-78 89.0138Feb-78 88.8093Mar-78 87.9192Apr-78 87.9605May-78 89.0457Jun-78 87.607Jul-78 85.3486

Aug-78 83.4795Sep-78 84.2858Oct-78 82.4731Nov-78 84.6991 103%Dec-78 84.9563 103%Jan-79 85.1997 103%Feb-79 86.1534 104%Mar-79 86.3226 105%Apr-79 87.3647 106%May-79 88.4934 107%Jun-79 88.603 107%Jul-79 86.5248 105%

Aug-79 87.4819 106%Sep-79 87.5697 106%Oct-79 89.0639 108%Nov-79 90.6246 110%Dec-79 89.3617 108%Jan-80 88.9485 108%Feb-80 89.87 109%Mar-80 93.491 113%

Apr-80 94.2663 114%May-80 90.3717 110%Jun-80 88.3603 107%Jul-80 87.6836 106%

Aug-80 88.7797 108%Sep-80 87.9469 107%Oct-80 88.5211 107%Nov-80 90.6452 110%Dec-80 91.8051 111%Jan-81 91.1053 110%Feb-81 94.2555 114%Mar-81 94.434 115%Apr-81 96.2203 117%May-81 99.4085 121%Jun-81 101.5629 123%Jul-81 104.48 127%

Aug-81 106.1941 129%Sep-81 103.5503 126%Oct-81 102.5232 124%Nov-81 100.1009 121%Dec-81 99.7147 121%Jan-82 101.1124 123%Feb-82 104.066 126%Mar-82 105.2214 128%Apr-82 106.1359 129%May-82 104.3949 127%Jun-82 109.939 133%Jul-82 111.4069 135%

Aug-82 111.1419 135%Sep-82 111.3738 135%Oct-82 113.1017 137%Nov-82 112.6805 137%Dec-82 108.0967 131%Jan-83 106.5061 129%Feb-83 107.7015 131%Mar-83 108.2951 131%Apr-83 109.2172 132%May-83 108.8428 132%Jun-83 110.6436 134%Jul-83 111.447 135%

Aug-83 113.0122 137%Sep-83 112.6605 137%Oct-83 110.5887 134%Nov-83 112.1248 136%Dec-83 113.5258 138%

Jan-84 114.8192 139%Feb-84 113.1681 137%Mar-84 111.2004 135%Apr-84 112.6094 137%May-84 115.2165 140%Jun-84 115.9985 141%Jul-84 119.9506 145%

Aug-84 119.934 145%Sep-84 122.825 149%Oct-84 123.8894 150%Nov-84 122.0705 148%Dec-84 124.4199 151%Jan-85 126.7397 154%Feb-85 131.1274 159%Mar-85 131.551 160%Apr-85 126.3152 153%May-85 126.5185 153%Jun-85 124.9752 152%Jul-85 120.3777 146%

Aug-85 118.6372 144%Sep-85 119.8913 145%Oct-85 113.6158 138%Nov-85 111.8123 136%Dec-85 111.0633 135%Jan-86 109.9539 133%Feb-86 105.4478 128%Mar-86 102.6893Apr-86 101.3277May-86 99.0193Jun-86 99.9441Jul-86 97.2022

Aug-86 95.4914Sep-86 95.5512Oct-86 95.6623Nov-86 97.0275Dec-86 96.2063Jan-87 92.738Feb-87 91.4195Mar-87 90.6592Apr-87 88.526May-87 88.0214Jun-87 89.6099Jul-87 91.1009

Aug-87 90.8483Sep-87 89.046

Oct-87 88.826Nov-87 85.2827Dec-87 82.6195Jan-88 82.8707Feb-88 83.7253Mar-88 82.3044Apr-88 81.6611May-88 82.0294Jun-88 83.6763Jul-88 86.3691

Aug-88 87.5799Sep-88 87.72Oct-88 85.1585Nov-88 82.9109Dec-88 82.6555Jan-89 84.7533Feb-89 85.2134Mar-89 86.6077Apr-89 86.9569May-89 89.7099Jun-89 91.8962Jul-89 89.2546

Aug-89 89.6686Sep-89 90.8309Oct-89 89.0001Nov-89 89.0073Dec-89 87.3594Jan-90 87.006Feb-90 87.0609Mar-90 88.9546Apr-90 88.901May-90 87.5355Jun-90 87.851Jul-90 85.629

Aug-90 83.6972Sep-90 82.7398Oct-90 80.2233Nov-90 79.54Dec-90 80.9556Jan-91 80.3924Feb-91 79.1698Mar-91 83.1533Apr-91 84.624May-91 85.2134Jun-91 86.8485

Jul-91 86.4661Aug-91 85.3882Sep-91 83.963Oct-91 82.8276Nov-91 81.349Dec-91 80.4934Jan-92 80.5878Feb-92 82.2664Mar-92 84.394Apr-92 84.0275May-92 83.0334Jun-92 81.2405Jul-92 79.5659

Aug-92 78.8853Sep-92 79.5928Oct-92 81.8402Nov-92 85.4094Dec-92 85.5979Jan-93 86.8334Feb-93 86.7449Mar-93 85.737Apr-93 83.8008May-93 83.6399Jun-93 84.0748Jul-93 85.2552

Aug-93 84.8972Sep-93 84.453Oct-93 85.613Nov-93 86.8693Dec-93 87.5503Jan-94 87.7804Feb-94 87.2079Mar-94 86.8232Apr-94 86.8696May-94 86.2306Jun-94 85.6039Jul-94 83.7489

Aug-94 84.1722Sep-94 83.1076Oct-94 82.1822Nov-94 82.8889Dec-94 84.5887Jan-95 84.2631Feb-95 83.4431Mar-95 80.5395

Apr-95 78.1236May-95 78.6208 1.006364Jun-95 78.5884 1.00595Jul-95 78.7493 1.008009

Aug-95 81.4466 1.042535Sep-95 82.8462 1.06045Oct-95 82.2372 1.052655Nov-95 82.6279 1.057656Dec-95 83.3543 1.066954Jan-96 84.7651 1.085013Feb-96 85.0174 1.088242Mar-96 85.0257 1.088348Apr-96 85.744 1.097543May-96 86.2299 1.103762Jun-96 86.5913 1.108389Jul-96 86.281 1.104417

Aug-96 85.8783 1.099262Sep-96 86.7047 1.10984Oct-96 87.1377 1.115383Nov-96 86.3874 1.105779Dec-96 87.909 1.125255Jan-97 89.4754 1.145306Feb-97 92.2389 1.180679Mar-97 93.1179 1.19193Apr-97 93.9416 1.202474May-97 92.303 1.1815Jun-97 91.7948 1.174994Jul-97 92.8027 1.187896

Aug-97 94.8833 1.214528Sep-97 94.5489 1.210248Oct-97 94.0415 1.203753Nov-97 94.7682 1.213055Dec-97 97.0379 1.242107Jan-98 98.2502 1.257625Feb-98 97.2356 1.244638Mar-98 97.5778 1.249018Apr-98 98.1644 1.256527May-98 98.6207 1.262368Jun-98 100.4312 1.285542Jul-98 101.3151 1.296857

Aug-98 103.0262 1.318759Sep-98 99 1.267223Oct-98 95.6405 1.22422Nov-98 96.4826 1.234999Dec-98 95.8506 1.22691

Jan-99 95.2027 1.218616Feb-99 96.6449 1.237077Mar-99 98.565 1.261655Apr-99 99.1107 1.26864May-99 99.1834 1.26957Jun-99 100.0605 1.280797Jul-99 100.5842 1.287501

Aug-99 98.5473 1.261428Sep-99 97.4892 1.247884Oct-99 96.5251 1.235543Nov-99 97.6422 1.249843Dec-99 98.1387 1.256198Jan-00 98.1919 1.256879Feb-00 100.7043 1.289038Mar-00 101.5103 1.299355Apr-00 102.335 1.309911May-00 105.6424 1.352247Jun-00 103.1564 1.320426Jul-00 104.2184 1.334019

Aug-00 105.7345 1.353426Sep-00 107.8397 1.380373Oct-00 109.573 1.40256Nov-00 110.3246 1.41218Dec-00 108.3995 1.387538Jan-01 107.7776 1.379578Feb-01 109.2901 1.398938Mar-01 111.8355 1.43152Apr-01 112.8154 1.444063May-01 113.0364 1.446892Jun-01 114.2862 1.46289Jul-01 114.2611 1.462568

Aug-01 111.616 1.42871Sep-01 111.5359 1.427685Oct-01 112.299 1.437453Nov-01 113.8613 1.457451Dec-01 114.115 1.460698Jan-02 115.7074 1.481081Feb-02 116.6445 1.493076Mar-02 115.6464 1.4803Apr-02 114.9565 1.47147May-02 111.8947 1.432278Jun-02 108.8619 1.393457Jul-02 106.153 1.358783

Aug-02 107.771 1.379494Sep-02 108.114

Oct-02 108.599Nov-02 107.0191Dec-02 106.0718Jan-03 103.2976Feb-03 102.4501Mar-03 101.7234Apr-03 101.2498May-03 96.4835Jun-03 95.3585Jul-03 97.466

Aug-03 98.9148Sep-03 97.175Oct-03 93.4245Nov-03 92.99Dec-03 90.6697Jan-04 88.9901Feb-04 89.718Mar-04 91.4203Apr-04 92.4957May-04 94.2432Jun-04 92.9273Jul-04 91.7895

Aug-04 92.077Sep-04 91.7564Oct-04 89.8289Nov-04 86.5645Dec-04 85.5789Jan-05 86.5351Feb-05 87.5824Mar-05 86.7224Apr-05 88.3525May-05 89.4988Jun-05 91.1148Jul-05 92.3048

Aug-05 91.0376Sep-05 91.3582Oct-05 92.8524Nov-05 94.0015Dec-05 93.0718Jan-06 91.7605Feb-06 92.6557Mar-06 92.7009Apr-06 91.6622May-06 88.2156Jun-06 89.3353

Jul-06 90.1678Aug-06 89.5668Sep-06 89.7045Oct-06 90.1288Nov-06 89.0019Dec-06 88.5986Jan-07 90.2084Feb-07 90.0761Mar-07 89.396Apr-07 87.9731May-07 87.5229Jun-07 87.4726Jul-07 85.935

Aug-07 85.9775Sep-07 84.3435Oct-07 82.1346Nov-07 80.471Dec-07 82.1004Jan-08 81.5515Feb-08 81.051Mar-08 78.5547Apr-08 78.7257May-08 79.0597Jun-08 80.1715Jul-08 79.8375

Aug-08 83.3499Sep-08 85.0381Oct-08 90.1575Nov-08 91.5142Dec-08 88.6826Jan-09 89.5019Feb-09 92.0047Mar-09 92.6489Apr-09 91.1245May-09 87.3844Jun-09 85.7765Jul-09 85.2197

Aug-09 83.9278Sep-09 82.677Oct-09 81.4896Nov-09 81.0035Dec-09 81.9705Jan-10 82.4407Feb-10 84.1581Mar-10 83.796

Apr-10 83.9584May-10 87.2836Jun-10 87.7886Jul-10 85.2468

Aug-10 84.4306Sep-10 83.3765Oct-10 80.4118Nov-10 80.9853Dec-10 82.1316Jan-11 81.2343Feb-11 80.3774Mar-11 79.1397Apr-11 77.8304May-11 78.1137Jun-11 78.057Jul-11 77.6526

Aug-11 77.7522 100%Sep-11 80.1113 103%Oct-11 80.4701 104%Nov-11 81.2249 105%Dec-11 82.3432 106%Jan-12 82.459 106%Feb-12 81.3355 105%Mar-12 82.1556 106%Apr-12 81.9168 105%May-12 83.1533 107%Jun-12 84.4441 109%Jul-12 84.5751 109%

Aug-12 83.7774 108%Sep-12 82.1436 106%Oct-12 82.4074 106%Nov-12 83.2258 107%Dec-12 82.635 106%Jan-13 83.1439 107%Feb-13 84.5558 109%Mar-13 86.1867 111%Apr-13 86.1051 111%May-13 86.8701 112%Jun-13 86.1124 111%Jul-13 87.1993 112%

Aug-13 86.2935 111%Sep-13 85.9672 111%Oct-13 85.0107 109%Nov-13 86.0209 111%Dec-13 86.3094 111%

Jan-14 87.4175 113%Feb-14 87.2076 112%Mar-14 86.9832 112%Apr-14 86.457 111%May-14 86.4555 111%Jun-14 86.6551 112%Jul-14 86.5993 112%

Aug-14 87.8897 113%Sep-14 90.269 116%Oct-14 91.7348 118%Nov-14 93.7289 121%Dec-14 95.1678 123%Jan-15 98.519 127%Feb-15 100.4171 129%Mar-15 103.3004 133%Apr-15 102.4441 132%May-15 100.4907 129%

Jan-73Dec-73

Nov-74Oct-75

Sep-76Aug-77

Jul-78Jun-79

May-80Apr-81

Mar-82Feb-83

Jan-84Dec-84

Nov-85Oct-86

Sep-87Aug-88

Jul-89Jun-90

May-91Apr-92

Mar-93Feb-94

Jan-95Dec-95

Nov-96Oct-97

Sep-98Aug-99

Jul-00Jun-01

May-02Apr-03

Mar-04Feb-05

Jan-06Dec-06

Nov-07Oct-08

Sep-09Aug-10

Jul-11Jun-12

May-13Apr-14

Mar-15

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Rate

Price-adjusted Major Currencies Dollar Index -- Monthly Index (FED Data)

Months Index (Oct 1978 - ) Index (Apr 1995 - ) Index (Jul 2011 - )0 103% 101% 100%1 103% 101% 103%2 103% 101% 104%3 104% 104% 105%4 105% 106% 106%5 106% 105% 106%6 107% 106% 105%7 107% 107% 106%8 105% 109% 105%9 106% 109% 107%

10 106% 109% 109%11 108% 110% 109%12 110% 110% 108%13 108% 111% 106%14 108% 110% 106%15 109% 110% 107%16 113% 111% 106%17 114% 112% 107%18 110% 111% 109%19 107% 113% 111%20 106% 115% 111%21 108% 118% 112%22 107% 119% 111%23 107% 120% 112%24 110% 118% 111%25 111% 117% 111%26 110% 119% 109%27 114% 121% 111%28 115% 121% 111%29 117% 120% 113%30 121% 121% 112%31 123% 124% 112%32 127% 126% 111%33 129% 124% 111%34 126% 125% 112%35 124% 126% 112%36 121% 126% 113%37 121% 129% 116%38 123% 130% 118%39 126% 132% 121%40 128% 127% 123%41 129% 122% 127%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

USD Index Uptrends % Change

Index (Oct 1978 - ) Index (Apr 1995 - ) Index (Jul 2011 - )

42 127% 123% 129%43 133% 123% 133%44 135% 122% 132%45 135% 124% 129%46 135% 126%47 137% 127%48 137% 127%49 131% 128%50 129% 129%51 131% 126%52 131% 125%53 132% 124%54 132% 125%55 134% 126%56 135% 126%57 137% 129%58 137% 130%59 134% 131%60 136% 135%61 138% 132%62 139% 133%63 137% 135%64 135% 138%65 137% 140%66 140% 141%67 141% 139%68 145% 138%69 145% 140%70 149% 143%71 150% 144%72 148% 145%73 151% 146%74 154% 146%75 159% 143%76 160% 143%77 153% 144%78 153% 146%79 152% 146%80 146% 148%81 144% 149%82 145% 148%83 138% 147%84 136% 143%85 135% 139%86 133% 136%

87 128% 138%

Jan-73Dec-73

Nov-74Oct-75

Sep-76Aug-77

Jul-78Jun-79

May-80Apr-81

Mar-82Feb-83

Jan-84Dec-84

Nov-85Oct-86

Sep-87Aug-88

Jul-89Jun-90

May-91Apr-92

Mar-93Feb-94

Jan-95Dec-95

Nov-96Oct-97

Sep-98Aug-99

Jul-00Jun-01

May-02Apr-03

Mar-04Feb-05

Jan-06Dec-06

Nov-07Oct-08

Sep-09Aug-10

Jul-11Jun-12

May-13Apr-14

Mar-15

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Rate

We can see from the above chart that the USD Index has further room to appreciate, judging from historical price patternsThe previous two multi-year USD upward trends lasted for :- 76 months for the uptrend started in Oct 1978, for a total appreciation of around 60%- 81 months for the uptrend started in Apr 1995, for a total appreciation of around 49%

We are currently (June 2015) in month number 46 of the uptrend started in Jul 2011 and we reached a maximum appreciation of 33% in month number 43 (March 2015).

Also, as can be seen from the chart, we are currently in an area where corrections usually occur (time wise). Thus:- for the uptrend started in Oct 1978, a correction of 8% occurred between months 47 and 50- for the uptrend started in Apr 1995, a correction of 10% occurred between months 39 and 44

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

USD Index Uptrends % Change

Index (Oct 1978 - ) Index (Apr 1995 - ) Index (Jul 2011 - )

Consequently, time wise, we should have at least another 30 months of USD uptrend ahead and another 15% (at least) appreciation.

- EURUSD towards 0.90 (currently 1.1350, with potential to go to 1.18 before lower)- GBPUSD towards 1.35 (currently 1.5850, with potential to go to 1.63 before lower)- USDCHF towards 1.15 (currently 0.92, with potential to go to 0.89 before higher)- AUDUSD towards 0.60 (currently 0.7750, with potential to go to 0.80 before lower)

Enjoy the USD uptrend for another 30-40 months and prepare selling it afterwards!

Based on this and on the fact that USDJPY has already played a large role in the USD's appreciation (percentage wise), then European and commodity currencies should bear the major brunt of further USD appreciation. This should take : EURUSD towards 0.90, GBPUSD towards 1.35, USDCHF towards 1.15 and AUDUSD towards 0.60.

Jan-73Dec-73

Nov-74Oct-75

Sep-76Aug-77

Jul-78Jun-79

May-80Apr-81

Mar-82Feb-83

Jan-84Dec-84

Nov-85Oct-86

Sep-87Aug-88

Jul-89Jun-90

May-91Apr-92

Mar-93Feb-94

Jan-95Dec-95

Nov-96Oct-97

Sep-98Aug-99

Jul-00Jun-01

May-02Apr-03

Mar-04Feb-05

Jan-06Dec-06

Nov-07Oct-08

Sep-09Aug-10

Jul-11Jun-12

May-13Apr-14

Mar-15

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Rate

We can see from the above chart that the USD Index has further room to appreciate, judging from historical price patterns

- 76 months for the uptrend started in Oct 1978, for a total appreciation of around 60%- 81 months for the uptrend started in Apr 1995, for a total appreciation of around 49%

We are currently (June 2015) in month number 46 of the uptrend started in Jul 2011 and we reached a maximum appreciation of 33% in month number 43 (March 2015).

Also, as can be seen from the chart, we are currently in an area where corrections usually occur (time wise). Thus:- for the uptrend started in Oct 1978, a correction of 8% occurred between months 47 and 50- for the uptrend started in Apr 1995, a correction of 10% occurred between months 39 and 44

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

USD Index Uptrends % Change

Index (Oct 1978 - ) Index (Apr 1995 - ) Index (Jul 2011 - )

Consequently, time wise, we should have at least another 30 months of USD uptrend ahead and another 15% (at least) appreciation.

Enjoy the USD uptrend for another 30-40 months and prepare selling it afterwards!

Based on this and on the fact that USDJPY has already played a large role in the USD's appreciation (percentage wise), then European and commodity currencies should bear the major brunt of further USD appreciation. This should take : EURUSD towards 0.90, GBPUSD towards 1.35, USDCHF towards 1.15 and AUDUSD towards 0.60.

Jan-73Dec-73

Nov-74Oct-75

Sep-76Aug-77

Jul-78Jun-79

May-80Apr-81

Mar-82Feb-83

Jan-84Dec-84

Nov-85Oct-86

Sep-87Aug-88

Jul-89Jun-90

May-91Apr-92

Mar-93Feb-94

Jan-95Dec-95

Nov-96Oct-97

Sep-98Aug-99

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90%

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USD Index Uptrends % Change

Index (Oct 1978 - ) Index (Apr 1995 - ) Index (Jul 2011 - )

Based on this and on the fact that USDJPY has already played a large role in the USD's appreciation (percentage wise), then European and commodity currencies should bear the major

USD Index