‘Conflict in South Asia: The

LDC (Least Developed

Country) Perspective’

Ranjini Basu

Fayyaz Yaseen

Barkha Sharda

INTRODUCTION

Conflict can be understood as some form of friction, disagreement,

or discord arising within a group when the beliefs or actions of one

of more members of the group are either resisted by or

unacceptable to one or more members of another group.

Vulnerability according to ldc (least developed countries) is defined

as the relative risk posed to a country‟s development by exogenous

(external)shocks.

Gardner (2005) summarizes four key variables which have been

frequently mentioned in the literature: insecurity, inequality, private

incentives and perceptions.

CONFLICT

O Insecurity is a key variable in the presence of a security dilemma.

The security dilemma refers to situations when conflict is a result

of security-seeking behavior. The inability of the state to protect

all groups within its borders spurs various groups to elevate the

provision of security to a primary concern, and attempts to

increase security by one group may decrease the perceived

security of another group, often resulting in conflicts (Walter

1999; Snyder and Jervis 1999).

O Inequality especially, „horizontal inequality‟ which is defined as

differences or deprivation across recognizable groups in society.

This type of inequality can be measured across political

participation, economic endowment, human assets, social status

etc. Although the existence of horizontal inequality does not

always cause armed conflict, group inequalities underpin

grievances that are important to mobilization for conflict (Stewart

2005).

• The political and economic incentives for potential leaders and potential

followers are quite relevant in understanding conflict. Leaders

may be motivated by political goals or economic gains.

Those in power are likely to initiate conflict when they feel

threatened, and those not in power use conflict to gain

power. Followers can also have private incentives. Stewart

(2005) describes how ethnicity and ideology are used by

leaders pursuing political goals.

• Perceptions are equally important in understanding conflict.

The group identity and the degree of group cohesion are

crucial in facilitating mobilization of rebel groups. Ethnic

cleavages, divergence in religion, group inequalities and

grievances can be created and magnified by perceptions

through histories, fears and myths. Perceptions are used

instrumentally to create or exacerbate other causes of

conflict (Lake and Rothchild 1998).

COMMON MAN‟S UNDERSTANDING OF LDC

CRITERION

A country which has the lowest indicator of socio-economic development combined with the lowest human development indices ratings of all the countries in the world falls under the ldc category.

The indicators are as follows-

Poverty

Human resource weakness based on health, education, adult literacy etc.

Economic vulnerability (instability of agriculture and export of goods etc.)

IDENTIFICATION OF LDCS

The three criteria for the identification of ldcs are: (i) Gross

National Income (GNI) per capita, (ii) Human Asset Index

(HAI); and (iii) Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI). The HAI

and EVI are composite indices of various indicators to

measure the long-term structural weaknesses of these

economies (United Nations 2008).

Forty eight (48) ldcs have been identified across the world of

which twenty three (23) fall under „conflict‟ ldcs. In South Asia,

Bangladesh and Bhutan fall under non-conflict ldcs while

Afghanistan and Nepal fall under the category of conflict ldcs.

HUMAN ASSET INDEX (HAI) INDICATORS

The HAI is a combination of four indicators related both to

the level of health and nutrition and to the level of education:

(I) THE PERCENTAGE OF POPULATION THAT IS

UNDERNOURISHED;

(II) THE RATE OF MORTALITY FOR CHILDREN

AGED FIVE YEARS AND UNDER;

(III) THE GROSS SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLMENT

RATIO;

(IV) THE ADULT LITERACY RATE.

ALL FOUR INDICATORS CARRY EQUAL WEIGHT IN

THE CALCULATION.

GROSS NATIONAL INCOME (GNI)

It is the sum of a nation‟s gross domestic product (GDP) plus net

income received from overseas. Gross national income (GNI) is

defined as the sum of value added by all producers who are

residents in a nation, plus any product taxes (minus subsidies) not

included in output, plus income received from abroad such as

employee compensation and property income. GNI measures

income received by a country both domestically and from overseas.

COMPOSITION OF THE ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY INDEX

(EVI)

O EXPOSURE INDEX(1/2)

O SIZE SUB-INDEX (POPULATION) (1/8)

O LOCATION SUB-INDEX (REMOTENESS) (1/8)

O EONOMIC STRUCTURESUB-INDEX (1/8) WHERE WE HAVE MERCHANT EXPORT CONCERTATION (1/16) AND SHARE OF AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES(1/16)

O ENVIRONMENT SUB-INDEX (1/8) SHARE OF POPULATION IN LOW ELEVATED COASTAL ZONES

* UNITED NATIONS 2011

O SHOCK INDEX (1/2)

O TRADE SHOCK SUB-

INDEX (1/4) INSTABILITY

OF EXPORTS OF GOODS

AND SERVICES

O NATURAL SHOCK SUB-

INDEX (1/4) VICTIMS OF

NATURAL DISASTERS (1/8)

AND INSTABILITY OF

AGRICULTURAL

PRODUCTION (1/8)

O Why Does Conflict Arise?

Reasons behind conflicts

O Conflicts are byproducts of insecurities

O Unequal and unjust social structures

O Economic un-equality

O Social identity is threatened

O Approach towards cultural/ethnic/linguistic/

racial/religious etc. differences

O Competition for scarce resources (territory, land,

water, oil, income, jobs etc.)

O People‟s unhappiness with the way they are

governed – demand for independence,

sovereignty

O Enforcement of political and religious

ideologies upon minorities

O Geo-political interests and power blocks

Consequences of CONFLICTS:

the LDC perspective

“And to think that the cost of one AK-47 rifle is enough

to buy vitamin A capsules that can prevent blindness of

3,000 one year olds; a 10 million worth of anti-personal

landmine is enough to provide immunization to

approximately 7.7 million children against 6 deadly

childhood diseases; the cost of 23 fighter planes can

provide for iodized salt for ten years to protect 1.6

billion people at risk of mental retardation due to iodine

deficiency and the cost of 11 radar evading bombers is

enough to provide 4 years of primary education to 135

million children who are not in school (Serrano 2008).”

• Social Consequences

Mortality levels- battle deaths & total

deaths(malnutrition, starvation, crimes, disease)

Legacy effects- conflicts cause disability, rise in

disease burden

Causes displacement

Impact on women and children (research shows that

conflict may not have an impact on education

Human Security Report 2012)

• Economic consequences

Economic decline

Infrastructure

Military spending

Time horizons (short term goals, rather than long term goal

meeting)

Capital flights (investments move away from the conflict

zones)

Government short sighted policies, higher military

expenditure, reduction in aide, reduction in tax revenue, all to

an inflationary situation.

(African Development Report 2008-09)

• In case of regional conflicts, regional cooperation in matters of

trade and resource sharing comes to a halt, having an impact on

the development of the region

• Gross Human Rights violation

• Impediment to human and economic growth

• Barriers to service delivery.

• Conflicts in general effect the security, justice and governance in

the region.

Policy Recommendations

• Ensuring security of the people.

• Economic policies should be geared not just to maximise

growth, but also to address the distributional or political

factors that led to the conflict

• Cross-border cooperation between countries should be an

integral part of any strategy to reduce conflict

• Talks with the insurgent groups.

• Government should expand welfare programmes to reduce

poverty in the conflict-affected areas as a means to

undercutting the support for the insurgency. (Ghani &Iyer

2010)

References

O Serrano, Evelyn Balais. 2010. Global Conflicts, Human Rights Violations

and Social Work Action. Accessed at:

http://www.cfess.org.br/pdf/evelyn_serrano.pdf

O African Development Report 2008-09

O Human Security Repost 2012

O Ghani, Ejaz & Lakshmi Iyer. 2010. Conflict & Development. Accessed at:

http://www.voxeu.org/article/conflict-and-development-lessons-

south-asia