confirming directional changes for the us capital markets

8/6/2019 Confirming Directional Changes for the US Capital Markets

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

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May 23, 2011 – Conf i r ming Direc t ional Changes for the US Capi t a l Mark ets

US Treasury yields remain low on a flight to quality. Gold needs a weekly close below $1485.7

to confirm a down trend. Crude oil has confirmed a down trend with a weekly close below$103.35. The euro has confirmed a down trend with a weekly close below 1.4254. The DowIndustrial Average needs a weekly close below 12,473 to confirm a down trend.

10-Year Note – (3.149) Monthly, annual and quarterly value levels are 3.757, 3.796 and 4.016 withweekly and daily pivots at 3.170 and 3.125, and annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.690, 2.441,and 2.322. This yield tested 3.090 overnight into Monday’s trading.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters



Comex Gold – ($1513.8) Daily, semiannual and annual value levels are $1482.3, $1452.6 and$1356.5 with quarterly, weekly and monthly risky levels at $1523.1, $1566.6 and $1589.3. A weekly close below the five-week modified moving average at $1485.8 is negative for gold.


Nymex Crude Oil – ($100.04) Daily and semiannual value levels are $94.30 and $87.52 with myannual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92, and weekly, semiannual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at

$106.55, $107.14, $119.17 and $120.52. A weekly close below the five-week modified moving average at $103.35 keeps the weekly chart for crude oil negative.




The Euro – (1.4150) My daily value level is 1.3995 (tested this morning) with a quarterly pivot at1.4308, and weekly and quarterly risky levels at 1.4651 and 1.4624. A weekly close below the five-

week modified moving average at 1.4254 keeps the weekly chart for the euro negative.


Weekly Dow: (12,512) The weekly chart remains positive with overbought MOJO and weekly closeabove the five-week modified moving average at 12,468. Today’s value level is 12,382. My annual

value level is 11,491 with weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,818, 13,663, 13,774and 13,890.




S&P 500 – (1333.3) My daily value level is 1317.9 with this week’s risky level at 1358.6. A close thisweek below the five-week modified moving average at 1332.5 shifts the weekly chart profile to

negative.NASDAQ – (2803) My daily value level is 2761 with this week’s risky level at 2877. A close this weekbelow the five-week modified moving average at 2803 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative.

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) – (2351) My daily value level is 2321 with this week’s risky level at 2399. A closethis week below the five-week modified moving average at 2355 keeps the weekly chart profilenegative.

Dow Transports – (5449) My daily value level is 5317 with this week’s risky level at 5557. A close thisweek below the five-week modified moving average at 5356 shifts the weekly chart profile to negative

Russell 2000 – (829.06) My daily value level is 809.39 with this week’s risky level at 856.31. A close

this week below the five-week modified moving average at 834.24 keeps the weekly chart profilenegative.

The SOX – (432.56) My daily value level is 428.68 with this week’s risky level at 441.47. A close thisweek below the five-week modified moving average at 440.01 keeps the weekly chart profile negative

Bank Failure Friday Scorecard – The FDIC closed three more community banks last Friday and allthree were extremely overexposed to Commercial Real Estate loans. 43 banks have failed year todate in 2011. 365 banks have failed since the end of 2007. I still predict 500 to 800 bank failures in total by the end of 2012 into 2013.

Definition of MOJO – This is my term for technical momentum. I use what’s called “12x3x3 slow

stochastic readings” from daily, weekly and monthly charts. The scale is zero to 10.0 where above 8.0is overbought and below 2.0 is oversold.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

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As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.comI have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters awell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the

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“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”

confirming directional changes for the us capital markets

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