company overview - crecchki...nab quarterly australian commercial property survey q4 2017 key...

Company Overview

• BlueMount Capital is an Australian corporate financeand advisory group with offices in Brisbane,Melbourne, Perth, Sydney and Shanghai.

• Formed in 2011, it is the only national “mid tier”corporate finance group in Australia offeringcorporate finance and advisory services rangingfrom fund raising, mergers and acquisitions, initialpublic offerings, reverse take overs, projectstructuring, cross-border transactions and marketaccess.

• BlueMount seeks to leverage the multi-office, multi-country experience and expertise combined withsenior principals across a range of industrydisciplines and product offerings

• BlueMount has approximately 50 staff in Australiaand China.

Copyright BlueMount Capital 2018 2

Brisbane Office - Astor Terrance, Spring

Hill, Brisbane Qld Australia

Overview Last Reference Previous Range Frequency

GDP growth rate 0.4% Dec/17 0.7 -2:4.4 Quarterly

Unemployment rate

5.5% Mar/18 5.5 4:11.2 Monthly

Inflation Rate 1.9% Mar/18 1.9 -1.3:23.9 Quarterly

Interest Rate 1.5% May/18 1.5 1.5:17.5 Daily

Balance of Trade AUD 1527M

Mar/18 1349 -4192:4524 Monthly

Government Debt to GDP

41.9% Dec/17 41 9.7:41.9 Yearly

Australia – Economic Indicators

Source: Trading Economics website (https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/indicators)


https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/indicators

IMF Forecast

Source: Business Insider Australia website (https://www.businessinsider.com.au/imf-australia-gdp-economy-grow-2018-4)


https://www.businessinsider.com.au/imf-australia-gdp-economy-grow-2018-4

Australian Population Latest Updates

Key Points:

• Australia's estimated resident population (ERP) reached 24.6 million at 30 June 2017, increasing by 388,100 people since 30 June 2016.

• Victoria had the largest growth in terms of absolute numbers (144,400 people), followed by New South Wales (121,800) and Queensland (79,600). The Northern Territory had the smallest growth (370).

• Melbourne had the largest growth of all Greater Capital Cities (125,400), followed by Sydney (101,600) and Brisbane (48,000). Together, these three cities accounted for over 70% of Australia's population growth in 2016-17.

• Melbourne also had the fastest growth (2.7%), ahead of Brisbane and Sydney (both 2.0%).


Source: Australian Statistics Bureau website (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/0/797F86DBD192B8F8CA2568A9001393CD?Opendocument)

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/0/797F86DBD192B8F8CA2568A9001393CD?Opendocument

Population change as at 30 Jun 2017

Source: Australian Statistics Bureau website (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/0/797F86DBD192B8F8CA2568A9001393CD?Opendocument)


http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/0/797F86DBD192B8F8CA2568A9001393CD?Opendocument

Population by city as at 30 Jun 2017

Source: News.com.au website (www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/sydneys-population-grows-by-100000-for-the-first-time-as-locals-leave-to-make-way-for-immigrants/news-story/8c8253a8159d8ddf66d190e7478fcbf9)


http://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/sydneys-population-grows-by-100000-for-the-first-time-as-locals-leave-to-make-way-for-immigrants/news-story/8c8253a8159d8ddf66d190e7478fcbf9

Population increase by city as at 30 Jun 2017




Natural increase by city as at 30 Jun 2017




Net overseas migration by city as at 30 Jun 2017




Net interstate migration by city as at 30 Jun 2017




CoreLogic April home value index as at 30 April 2018

Source: CoreLogic website (https://www.corelogic.com.au/indices#.WvD_hUxuJ30)


https://www.corelogic.com.au/indices#.WvD_hUxuJ30

SQM Research Residential Rent and Yields Change as at 31 March 2018

Source: ABC News website (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-24/why-darwin-rent-high-when-vacancy-rate-high-property/9662364)


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-24/why-darwin-rent-high-when-vacancy-rate-high-property/9662364

CityMedian weekly rent for three bedroom house ($)

Vacancy rate (%)

Darwin 487.5 6.3

Sydney 510 2.1

Melbourne 395 2.2

Brisbane 380 2.6

Perth 330 5.5

Adelaide 345 n/a

Canberra 485 1.1

Hobart 380 1.4

REIA Vacancy Rates as at 31 December 2017

Source: REIA December 2017


SQM Research Latest Prediction on Residential Housing

Source: ABC News website (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-07/sydney-melbourne-housing-price-fall-sqm-downgrade/9734388)


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-07/sydney-melbourne-housing-price-fall-sqm-downgrade/9734388

UBS Credit Prediction

Source: ABC News website (https://www.domain.com.au/money-markets/whats-next-for-australian-property-prices-3-economic-heavyweights-make-their-case-20180409-h0yijb/)


https://www.domain.com.au/money-markets/whats-next-for-australian-property-prices-3-economic-heavyweights-make-their-case-20180409-h0yijb/

AMP Prediction




ANZ Prediction




2018 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

Source: ABC News website (https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/01/2018-demographia-international-housing-affordability-survey/)


https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2018/01/2018-demographia-international-housing-affordability-survey/

2018 Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey (Cont’d)




But when compared to Hong Kong, Australia is still “affordable”….

International Affordability Rank (Note 1)

Housing Market

Median Multiple

Median Price in local currency

Median Price in HKD (Note 2)

Median Household Income in local currency

Median Household Income in HKD (Note 2)

293 Hong Kong SAR

19.4 HKD6,192,000 HKD6,192,000 HKD319,000 HKD319,000

292 Sydney 12.9 AUD1,177,600 HKD7,065,600 AUD91,600 HKD549,600

288 Melbourne 9.9 AUD817,000 HKD4,902,000 AUD82,800 HKD496,800

277 Gold Coast 8.4 AUD601,850 HKD3,611,100 AUD71,300 HKD427,800

260 Adelaide 6.6 AUD450,000 HKD2,700,000 AUD68,500 HKD411,000

256 Brisbane 6.3 AUD516,900 HKD3,101,400 AUD81,700 HKD490,200

246 Perth 5.9 AUD504,300 HKD3,025,800 AUD86,200 HKD517,200

Note 1: Rank 1 means the most affordable and Rank 293 means the least affordable.Note 2: The exchange is AUD1 : HKD6.

Source: Demograhia International Housing Affordability Survey (http://demographia.com/dhi.pdf)


http://demographia.com/dhi.pdf

JLL Comments on Brisbane Apartment Market: Eight reasons to be positive about Brisbane’s apartment market

Key Points:

• Queensland’s economy is bouncing back• Increased infrastructure spending• Population growth is increasing• Brisbane apartments remain affordable• Apartment supply is slowing sharply• Quality stock is still performing strongly• There is a structural change to higher-density living• The broader housing market across Brisbane is not over-supplied

Source: JLL website (file:///C:/Flora%20Mok/Personal/Blue%20Mount%20Capital/JLL_Eight%20reasons%20to%20be%20positive%20about%20Brisbane's%20apartment%20market_March%202018.pdf)


https://business.nab.com.au/nab-quarterly-australian-commercial-property-survey-q4-2017-28628/

CBRE’s Investor Intentions Survey 2018

TOP TEN PREFERRED CITIES BELOW

1. Tokyo2. Melbourne3. Singapore4. Shanghai5. China tier 2/3 cities6. Sydney7. Japan regional cities8. Brisbane9. Hong Kong10. Beijing

Source: News.com.au website (http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/melbourne-vic/melbourne-no-1-with-offshore-investors/news-story/3cd0133d959eedcc50df55ca4dee19da)


http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/melbourne-vic/melbourne-no-1-with-offshore-investors/news-story/3cd0133d959eedcc50df55ca4dee19da

NAB Quarterly Australian Commercial Property Survey Q4 2017

Key Points:

• Overall sentiment around commercial property (measured by the NAB Commercial Property Index) moderated a little in Q4 (down 1 to +17) but is still well above the long-term average (+2).

• “Positive sentiment likely reflected a steady economy, healthy employment growth and strong business conditions.”

• CBD Hotels out-performed all other sectors.

• Industrial sentiment also lifted, amid continued reports of strong warehousing and logistics activity linked to growth in online retail (including Amazon) and e-commerce.

• Office has eased but is still out-performing.

• Retail sentiment fell quite sharply and turned negative for the first time since mid-2014.

Source: NAB website (https://business.nab.com.au/nab-quarterly-australian-commercial-property-survey-q4-2017-28628/)



Offshore Buyer and Seller Activity

Source: Urban Developer website (https://theurbandeveloper.com/articles/-offshore-investors-fuel-australias-office-market-/)



Australian office market in different areas




Australian CBD vs non-CBD office markets




1. Project NW Melbourne

• This house and land development site is located north west of the Melbourne CBD, 4 minutes’ drive from the nearest train station and 20 minutes’ drive from Melbourne airport.

• Development approval has been granted.

• The vendor is selling the development site for $32m.

• The site includes 215 lots for house and land packages that the vendor is looking to sell.

Latest Investment Opportunities


2. Project NW Brisbane

• This development site of one hectare is located just 10km north west of the Brisbane CBD, close to all amenities such as shopping centres and high school.

• Total resident exclusive recreational areas 2,300m2; total public parkland & pedestrian areas 1,300m2

• While development Approval application in progress, possible to build over 300 apartments and/or retirement village upon approval by the Brisbane City Council

• The vendor is selling the development site for $17m to $19m.

• The vendor is building child care centre and clinics at the same site.

Latest Investment Opportunities (Cont’d)


Our Insights on Australian Property Market

• Australian economy keeps on improving while the interest rate stays at the current level in the near future, the Australian dollar remains relatively low when compared to the US dollar

• Global market sentiment improving and the appetite for Australian assets growing

• Offshore investors from Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan are expected to invest more in the Australian property markets

• Search for investment opportunities in growing and recovering markets such as Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra and Perth, etc.

• Invest into different asset class (e.g. industrial properties, retirement villages, child care centres, farmlands, etc.) to diversify the investment risk

• Be mindful of the change in the global economic conditions due to various factors such as trade war, increase of the US interest rates, etc.


Day 1 (21 Jun 2018, Thursday)

• Presentation of the latest developments in Australia and Brisbane by Brisbane Marketing

• Presentation of the property investment opportunities and considerations by BlueMount Capital

• Brisbane City Visit:

• Queen's Street Mall (a pedestrian-centric space)

• Queen's Wharf

• King George Square & Brisbane City Hall

• Office and Residential Buildings, Shopping Mall

Day 2 (22 Jun 2018, Friday)

• Presentation of property investment projects by developers from Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne

• Lunch with Graham Quirk, Lord Mayor, Brisbane

• One-on-one meetings between investors and project owners

Delegation Visit Program


Day 3 (23 Jun 2018, Saturday)

• 2018 Brisbane Property Expo (Free Entry but need pre-registration)

• Departure for Melbourne

Day 4 (24 Jun 2018, Sunday)

• Residential Development Project Tour @ Eq. Tower

Day 5 (25 Jun 2018, Monday)

• Investors Discussion with ICD Property

• Departure for Hong Kong

For details, please visit CRECCHKI website (https://www.crecchki.org/en/event/australia-delegation-visit-brisbane-and-Melbourne)

Delegation Visit Program (Cont’d)


https://www.crecchki.org/en/event/australia-delegation-visit-brisbane-and-Melbourne

Why Us

• BlueMount Capital is an international capital markets firm with offices in Australia, Hong Kong and China (www.bluemountcapital.com). BlueMount Capital, through its global network, skilled professionals, and global platforms delivers comprehensive solutions to our clients via a broad range of capital market services.

• We have a capable team, deep industry expertise, extensive platforms, databases and networks, and are confident in supporting your investment banking needs.

• We are specialists in supporting profitable businesses with corporate strategy, exit and financing options.

• We have good relationships with potential investors including family offices, private equity and stock brokers around funding and exits.

• Our directors have extensive experience assisting private and public companies, and sophisticated investors and have an excellent track record.


http://www.bluemountcapital.com/

Contact Us

布里斯班

Level 5, 15 Astor Terrace, Spring Hill QLD 4000

Phone +61 7 3160 2840

www.bluemountcapital.com

Flora Mok (Mandarin 中文)Director M&A

+61 4140 33188

Email: [email protected]

Dr Mark RainbirdManaging Director

+61 4065 36016

Email: [email protected]

http://www.bluemountcapital.com/

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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