community modeling and long-term predictions of the integrated water cycle
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Community Modeling and Long-term Predictions of the Integrated Water Cycle. Topic 6 Report Out Washington DC September 24-26, 2012. Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research to meet the most pressing energy and environmental challenges. Kristen Averyt Jared Bales Kate Calvin Dan Cayan - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Office of Science
Office of Biological and Environmental Research
Community Modeling and Long-term Predictions of the Integrated Water Cycle
Topic 6 Report Out
Washington DC
September 24-26, 2012
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research2 Water Cycle Workshop
Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research to meet the most pressing energy andenvironmental challenges
• Kristen Averyt
• Jared Bales
• Kate Calvin
• Dan Cayan
• Paul Faeth
• Jay Famiglietti
• Auroop Ganguly
• Pierre Gentine
• Mohammad Hejazi
• Kathy Hibbard
• Paul Houser
• Kathy Jacobs
• Tony Janetos
• Brian O’Neill
• Adam Schlosser
• Soroosh Sorooshian
• Ken Strzepek
• Claudia Tebaldi
• Vince Tidwell
• John Weyant
• Craig Zamuda
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research3 Water Cycle Workshop 3
Water is critical to every aspect of the North American economy, public health,
energy, and food production
Population, climate and environmental change are quickly modifying the water
supply-demand balance
We need to establish the scientific basis, observation, prediction and decision approaches
to manage water security and sustainability
Ensuring America's water security
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research4 Water Cycle Workshop
Front Rang
e
Four CornersChama
Rio Grande
Utah Project
Powell and Mead
Arizona and Lwr Colorado
Southern
California
Northern Californi
a
UprCo
WATER EVALUATION AND PLANNING (WEAP) SYSTEM
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research5 Water Cycle Workshop
If water is constrained, the fuel mix will change to favor options that use less water.
Source: Faeth, unpublished.
We assume a 20% cap
on wind.
Wind
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Wind
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
< 2010-2040
U.S. Fuel mix, w/o & w/ water constraint
5
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research6 Water Cycle Workshop
6
D (P – E): 2030’s vs. CurrentDarker brown: DryerDarker Blue: Wetter
CMIP3 MMEs MedianNine CMIP3 models
CMIP5 MMEs MedianSeven CMIP5 models
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research7 Water Cycle Workshop
Water Availability
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research8 Water Cycle Workshop
Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`
6.1 Careful attention needs to be given to the hierarchy of models
6.2 How does water availability influence energy sector development and vice-versa
6.3 How does water availability influence food sector development and vice-versa
6.4 How does water availability influence tradeoffs in food/energy sector development
6.5 Designing infrastructure for intensifying extreme events
Priority Research Directions (3 to 5)
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research9 Water Cycle Workshop
Scientific Needs/Opportunities
A. CLM and related models are unlikely to incorporate detailed representation of water use dynamics in the foreseeable future.
B. Set of policy relevant questions require global perspective
C.Additional set of questions require a regional/local viewD.Uncertainty associated with modeling both physical and
social dynamics
Careful attention needs to be given to the hierarchy of models
Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research10 Water Cycle Workshop
Research Approaches
A. Develop hierarchy of modelsi. Limit use modeling in CLM to that which drives changes in
atmospheric or ocean circulation dynamicsii. Global model at large watershed scale to address global
policy issues (emissions, food security, energy security, etc.)iii. Detailed regional scale models
B. Work to standardize” information passed between models (downscaled climate data, changes in land cover)
C.Multiple vs. single community model paradigm?D.Risk based analysisE. Encourage stakeholder engagement in analysis design
Careful attention needs to be given to the hierarchy of models
Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research11 Water Cycle Workshop
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research12 Water Cycle Workshop
Scientific/User Impacts
A. Improved model interoperabilityB. Broader engagement by stakeholders and decision
makersC. Improved policy relevance of analysis
Careful attention needs to be given to the hierarchy of models
Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research13 Water Cycle Workshop
Scientific Needs/OpportunitiesA. Water supply requirements
i. Total runoff and variability (high vs. lows)ii. Timing of runoff relative to storage capacityiii. Frequency between high and low flowsiv. Duration of low flows (severity, return period, duration of droughts)v. Groundwater
1) Recharge2) surface water discharge3) Volume available
vi. Brackish water availability/ Water Reuse opportunity (cost, technology)
vii. Water quality issues1) Pollution2) Effluent temperature3) Non-point sediment/nutrient4) Quality sensitive to use patterns
Water-Energy-Food Nexus
Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research14 Water Cycle Workshop
Scientific Needs/OpportunitiesB. Demand Side requirements
i. Data requirementsa) Improved estimates of food/energy/public health/hazards
management. Engaging stakeholders in process (example, Food and Agriculture 2030 estimates).
b) Current baseline data (withdrawal/consumption, source, sector)ii. Processes
a) Technology evolution and adoption. How big of impact can a particular technology have at given cost levels
b) Relations of demands to economics (changing diet, greater energy use, improved water conservation).
c) Geospatial economic and demographic drivers d) Tight linkage to evaporation and transpiration demandse) Link between precipitation (timing/amount) and
irrigation/industrial/municipal practicesf) Clearly articulate energy technology pathways and the related
impacts on water demand
Water-Energy-Food Nexus
Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research15 Water Cycle Workshop
Scientific Needs/Opportunities
C. Institutional requirementsi. Modeling water marketsii. Reservoir operationsiii. Treaties/Compactsiv. Environmental flows
Water-Energy-Food Nexus
Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research16 Water Cycle Workshop
Research Approaches
A. Models largely exist; however, implementation issues exist:i. Computational burdenii. Scaling processes/parameters from regional scale
(where models largely exist) to large river basin scale
iii. Data availability, proprietary data (international and industrial)
B. Biggest challenge is to integrate the linkage with water explicitly (food/energy already represented in IAMs)
C. Expand engagement with social sciences
Water-Energy-Food Nexus
Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research17 Water Cycle Workshop
Scientific/User Impacts
A. Address broader suite of policy questionsB. Water conveys climate effects to other sectors
Water-Energy-Food Nexus
Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`
Department of Energy • Office of Science • Biological and Environmental Research18 Water Cycle Workshop
Scientific Needs/Opportunities
Designing infrastructure for intensifying extreme events
Topic 6: Use-inspired water cycle research`